The Diamond of Misfit Toys seems like a sad place to be. Granted I don’t really know, because for whatever reason baseball decided not to let media members in, but it seems like a sad place. My guess is that it is. Assuming as much, it’d behoove the Red Sox to swoop in and help one of those poor, generic-jersey-wearing souls, be emancipated from that private workout hellscape.

One of those poor souls happens to be Alex Cobb, who is someone the Red Sox should take a nice, long look at. I should note that I don’t think this will happen. Alex Cobb is in the range of good/okay/fine, but there are not many good/okay/fine pitchers left on the market, and a lot of teams need a good/okay/fine starter more than the Red Sox. Someone’s going to pay Cobb to be their number-two guy, and that obviously won’t be the Sox. BUT:

If there’s mutual interest, the Red Sox should pounce. The current free agent market is eventually going to cause a work stoppage, but right now there’s about as good a window to get talent on a team-friendly deal as there’s ever been.

Cobb’s 30, but his workload has been relatively light. Missing a year because of Tommy John is obviously a big reason for that, but since coming up in 2011, Cobb has thrown 700 innings. Comparatively, Chris Sale came up the year before Cobb and has thrown 1,324 innings. There’s life left in Cobb’s arm, and all the numbers paint the picture of a remarkably consistent mid-rotation guy.

Cobb’s biggest pluses are that he doesn’t walk people and he keeps the ball in the park. His career walk rate sits right at seven percent, with his career HR/9 sitting at a very cozy 0.84. He’s posted better than league average totals in both walk rate and HR/9 during  every season he’s stayed healthy. He doesn’t really strike people out (19.7 career strikeout rate), but you can live with a mid-rotation guy not piling up K’s when he can do the other things well. Chris Sale will strike enough people out for the both of them, do not worry.

Looking at last year’s numbers, there are some contact issues worth bringing up. After keeping his fly-ball rate under 30 percent for the entirety of his career, Cobb finally passed that threshold last year. Hitters are starting, albeit slowly, to hit the ball in the air more often against Cobb. Whether that’s a product of Cobb’s stuff, or just a reflection on the growing trendiness of hitting the ball in the air (I tend to think more the latter), it’s worth keeping an eye on. Cobb’s career fly-ball rate sits right at 26 percent, so it’s entirely possible last year was an anomaly. Still, declines always have a starting point, and it’s too soon to tell if this is Cobb’s.

Since coming up in 2011, Cobb has been at least a two-win pitcher in any full season where he’s been healthy. His only sub-two seasons were his debut year, when he only pitched 50-something innings, and his Tommy John season, when he threw 22. Let’s assume that the Red Sox sign Cobb and place him into the fourth spot in the rotation. Here’s how many wins the Red Sox fourth starters have been worth since Cobb came into the league:

2011: 0.7 (Clay Buchholz)
2012: 0.8 (Clay Buchholz)
2013: 2.2 (Felix Doubront!)
2014: 0.4 (Rubby de la Rosa)
2015: 1.6 (Rick Porcello)
2016: 1.2 (Eduardo Rodriguez)
2017: 2.0 (Rick Porcello)

Essentially, Cobb would provide the Red Sox with a luxury they’ve rarely had this decade. This is also a big reason why Cobb has probably priced himself out of the picture for the Red Sox, but you just never know in this market. Jake Arrieta is on the Phillies. Christian Yelich is on the Brewers. Weird shit happens. I’m firmly on Team You Can Never Have Too Much Quality Starting Depth, and the Red Sox are one Drew Pomeranz elbow explosion away from a real disaster. Steven Wright won’t be ready for the regular season and cannot pitch unless the weather is literally perfect. I choose to believe that Eduardo Rodriguez’s knee can stay in place when it goes six weeks without falling out. The Red Sox starting depth looks great on paper, but a closer look reveals a pretty delicate situation. If this is indeed the middle of some three-year window, this seems like the perfect time to shell out a little more to create one of the deepest rotations in baseball. The team most likely can’t wait much longer to see how their rotation shapes up, and still be able to make a move for Cobb, but I wouldn’t hate it if they did.

Photo by Rick Osentoski — USA TODAY Sports

Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts.

Partly that’s a function of the fact the Red Sox have been a better team than the Orioles over that time. Thus when Baltimore has picked it has more often been at the top of the draft where more is expected to come of the selection, whereas the Red Sox have often picked later where star power is much harder to come by.

But even then, the Red Sox have still done better than Baltimore. There are probably other teams that have done better than the Red Sox over the past three decades (going much deeper into draft history is pointless as the draft has changed so much since) but though they exist they likely aren’t many. Take for example, Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts, and that would be amazing.

Of course, that’s not the only time the Red Sox have had a non-first round pick and (to date) got more production out of it than any of the first rounders used that in that same draft. They did it in 2004 when they used the 65th overall pick to take Dustin Pedroia. If you want to hold this exercise to just the first round though, well, even then the Red Sox have done well. The following draft, 2005, the Red Sox had the 23rd pick as compensation for Orlando Cabrera signing with the Angels. They used it on outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the sixth most valuable player (B-R WAR) taken in that draft.

So the Red Sox have scored when they should’ve scored and scored when they probably shouldn’t have scored. But they haven’t always nailed it. In 2010, they used the 20th overall pick on Kolbrin Vitek with Christian Yelich taken three picks later. Vitek never made it above Double-A, retiring four years after being picked. Even so though, the 20th pick isn’t a surefire star waiting to happen. That’s more like a guy you’d hope could turn into a solid contributor. Vitek never was that (why he’s mentioned in this paragraph!) but missing out on the 20th overall pick isn’t something to quit over. Oddly enough, current Red Sox star pitcher Chris Sale was selected seven picks earlier, but I digress.

The real problem, as the Orioles can attest to, is getting a top-ten pick and blowing it on nothing. The Red Sox haven’t officially done that yet, but it’s pretty close. Trey Ball has a 5.53 ERA in Double-A and is looking less like a future rotation cornerstone and more like a guy who gets dropped in the end of an insubstantial trade, or even converted to the outfield because why not? Worse, Boston took Ball with a bunch of still promising guys available (Austin Meadows, JP Crawford, Hunter Dozier, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge), though that’s how every draft is. There’s always someone promising available. The trick is knowing who it is.

You have to go pretty far back to find so high a pick go so badly for the Red Sox. In 1995 the Red Sox took pitcher Andy Yount two picks before Roy Halladay went to the Blue Jays, but that was with the 15th overall pick, not the seventh. In 1994 Boston took Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick, and in ’93 they took Trot Nixon with the seventh pick. Hard to complain about either, even if Nixon didn’t ever quite live up to the star power that was projected upon him.

Since Theo Epstein took over the GM’s seat in early 2003 the Red Sox have been incredibly good at getting value out of the draft. It’s hard to win three World Series in fifteen years without getting something substantial from the draft. The Red Sox built the foundation of their first World Series winning team through trades and free agency, but their second, the 2007 team came far more from the draft. While there were ’04 crossovers in Jason Varitek and David Ortiz, and free agents like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the ’07 team was also Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon. The 2013 team was similar in its composition. Lots of free agents and players acquired in trades, but with a solid core of home grown players like Lester, Pedroia, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Will Middlebrooks, and Ellsbury, with assists from Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley.

Looking at that 2013 squad, you can still see the roots stretching back to Theo Epstein and Boston’s first world championship in almost a century, but so can you see the future, or as we here in 2017 say, the present. The Red Sox don’t owe it all to the draft. They’re not the Rays or the Astros, but the draft has provided the Red Sox with a lot of value and a sizable amount of star power over the past few decades. So when going to look for Boston’s biggest draft busts or some such thing, you’ll have to be searching for a long time. Or, put more succinctly, the Red Sox aren’t the Orioles. Because when it comes to the draft, the Red Sox are hobgood at it.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

After yesterday’s trade of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox appear to be left with six viable candidates for the five starting rotation spots: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright. Those first three are locks to be in the major league rotation, Rodriguez will be in a rotation, whether Boston or Pawtucket remains to be seen, and the last two have potential as bullpen options or even trade pieces; although after the Buchholz trade I don’t think they will be trading any more of these guys. Pomeranz is reportedly a target of the Seattle Mariners and due to his clearly high upside, Rodriguez would likely bring a substantial return, but these guys will be in-house projects for the foreseeable future. At MLB.com, Ian Browne weighed the pros and cons of keeping and trading each of Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright and Buchholz. Browne’s case for dealing Buchholz was largely the salary related advantages, which appears to have been the factor that made it happen.

While there were certainly positive aspects of trading one or more of these guys, I think the best move was to hold onto the depth – at least for now. It would take some juggling, as only Rodriguez has options remaining, but seasons tend to present circumstances that require having more than five (or even six) major league caliber starters. Brian Johnson, who will likely start the year at Pawtucket, is another player who is looking to join the major league rotation, but he is working his way back from issues related to anxiety and there remain questions about the health of his elbow. The other options at Pawtucket are Henry Owens and Roenis Elias, but neither has shown the consistent effectiveness required to engender confidence in them. So keeping the depth would have proven useful, and if not, one or two of these players (even Buchholz) could be dealt in the Spring, or even in-season to improve the club in other areas. I don’t understand the rush to get it done now.

Behind the starting rotation, the Red Sox’s bullpen will look quite different from what it did in 2016 and previous years. Koji Uehara, who Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wants us to remember was so important to the team over the last four seasons, is now a Cub, and Junichi Tazawa signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins a day before short-lived, but really effective, Red Sox Brad Ziegler did. That means the bulk of the 2016 high-leverage relief group is gone. Craig Kimbrel is still lurking at the end of games, but the path to him will be different. For 2017, the high-leverage group in front of Kimbrel will feature newly acquired Tyler Thornburg, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and eventually Carson Smith. The rest of the bullpen will be a flexible group: one (or more) of the guys that does not get a spot in the rotation, Heath Hembree (as a righty-specialist, now saved from being DFAd by the Buchholz trade), Fernando Abad (as a lefty-specialist), and Robbie Ross Jr. (as a multi-use guy). Peter Abraham has more on the depth the Red Sox have built in the relief corps. All in all the bullpen looks, at least on digital-paper, to be a strength of the team.

Quick Hits

As the Red Sox consider trading from their starting pitching depth and how such trades could impact the final form of the bullpen, they should keep in mind the trickle-down effect that Chris Sale will have on the pitching staff. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that with the acquisition of Sale, the Red Sox now have three of the 15 pitchers who threw 200+ innings in 2016. That sort of length from the rotation should make John Farrell’s bullpen decisions easier.

Adding Sale to the rotation makes it stronger than it was in 2016, however there are concerns about it being too left-handed (Sale, Price, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz). This could be especially problematic for the Red Sox given their home park, which tends to be unfriendly to lefty pitchers. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal digs into the numbers, specifically those of current (and potential) AL East foes. It could be a unique Red Sox rotation in terms of handedness, but two of the four (Sale and Price), have shown they can consistently get anybody out, so things should be fine.

Blake Swihart’s top-prospect status and bumps in the development path have kept him in the forefront of trade rumours. Being a top-prospect means other teams want him, and the bumps in development suggest the Red Sox would be willing to part with him. But Peter Gammons reported that Dave Dombrowski refused to include Swihart in any deal. At MassLive.com, Christopher Smith details how Swihart’s age, performance at the plate in the second half of 2015, and uncertainty surrounding Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, likely contributed to Dombrowski’s reluctance to trade Swihart.

In 2016, as the Red Sox fought to win the division they relied on a rookie, Andrew Benintendi, in left field. This led Christopher Smith to wonder if a similar situation will happen in 2017 with first baseman Sam Travis. Travis is returning from an ACL tear but if he gets back on the track he was on before the injury, it is reasonable that he could make his major league debut this summer. As Smith notes, Travis could platoon with Mitch Moreland at first base and push Hanley Ramirez to full time DH duties. There are many moving parts to this and a lot has to break right for it to happen, but it is an interesting idea nonetheless.

Speaking of Hanley, Ian Browne has a nice article detailing how the slugger is excited for the 2017 season and looking forward to taking over the DH role from his buddy, David Ortiz. Hanley is so much fun, especially when things are going well for him on the field, so here’s hoping he builds on his strong 2016 season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

But after a week of reflecting and reminiscing, it’s time we look ahead to 2017. The Sox’s season was an overall success, winning the AL East after two straight last-place finishes. And the young core leaves few holes in the roster entering the offseason. That doesn’t mean there aren’t questions to be answered, however. Boston is a division-series bouncer that had its flaws exposed in the playoffs, and there are uncertainties at multiple positions. Dave Dombrowski, Mike Hazen’s replacement and friends now have to put together a roster primed to repeat as AL East champs and make a real playoff run.

What exactly should the Red Sox do? They don’t pay me to know those answers. But there are five questions that will need addressing before Opening Day.

1.) How do they handle their pitching staff?

Pitching was an issue that surfaced and resurfaced throughout the season and carried into the playoffs. First it was the starting rotation and then it was the bullpen through most of July and August. By September, the Red Sox figured it out and finished the year with the sixth-ranked team DRA (4.00). That’s great given where they were as a staff most of the year.

However, top starters Rick Porcello and David Price both struggled in the playoffs, continuing their respective runs of winlessness in October. Clay Buchholz was ok in Game 3. Ditto for Drew Pomeranz out of the bullpen in his Game 1 and 3 appearances. The bullpen, meanwhile, was among the best in the majors in September and remained reliable in the playoffs, as it allowed just two runs (by Pomeranz) over three games.

The Red Sox have all of their starters under contract for next season except for Buchholz, who has a team option for 2017 (we’ll discuss that more later on). They could bring back the same starting rotation and probably contend once again, especially if it looks more like the second-half version than the early season one. However, the starters’ postseason performance may incline management to pursue other options, such as pulling off a major blockbuster for a Chris Sale-like ace or tapping into the weak free-agent pitching market and signing a Doug Fister or Rich Hill type of player.

Next year’s bullpen may look a little different. Junichi Tazawa is probably gone, Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad are also pending free agents and there’s no telling what will happen with Koji Uehara. A healthy Carson Smith will upgrade a pen headlined by Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes. The only pending free agent the Sox will likely try bringing back is Ziegler. There are some notable names entering free agency this winter, including Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney, among others. One of those names could be on Boston’s radar as well.

2.) Who’s their starting third baseman?

The Red Sox made the right decision starting Travis Shaw at third base over Pablo Sandoval to start the season. Shaw was arguably the team’s worst hitter last season, finishing the year with a .246 TAv and 1.6 WARP as he didn’t start a playoff game. However, it was still an upgrade over Sandoval’s .229 TAv and -1.4 WARP in 2015.

The question now is who will get the job at third next season. Right now it looks to be between Shaw, Sandoval and Brock Holt, who started at third in the playoffs and slashed .400/.400/.800 over three games. The Sox could certainly use an upgrade, but will that come from the outside or within?

Odds are it will be the latter. Shaw proved productive enough thanks to all of the offense in front of him. Sandoval’s past success, and apparent weight loss, gives hope that he’s finally ready to turn things around. If none of that works, Holt is available to hold things down until Yoan Moncada is ready to take over. Your guess is as good as mine who will win the job.

3. What do they do with Clay Buchholz?

This is the second straight season the Red Sox have had to answer this question. Last year seemed like more of a no-brainer. Buchholz posted a 3.00 DRA in 2015 before suffering a season-ending injury, and the Sox were desperate for starting pitching. The only question was his durability.

This year, Buchholz’s issue wasn’t health. It was poor performance for most of the season. The right-hander owned a 5.79 ERA through his first 23 appearances. At that point it was a decent bet he’d be gone this offseason. However, his 3.02 ERA in August and September makes it more of a toss-up, if not more likely the Red Sox pick up his $13.5 million option. Price, Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Pomeranz would make for a solid starting rotation. But last season proved the importance of starting pitching depth as various injuries forced Buchholz back into the rotation multiple times.

Essentially, the Red Sox either let Buchholz walk and stick to the five they have or find depth by acquiring another starter and perhaps move Pomeranz to the bullpen. Or, they can bring Buchholz back for an affordable price and give this group another shot next year.

4.) How do they replace David Ortiz?

There’s no replacing Big Papi. However, the Red Sox do need to decide what to do at designated hitter next season. Ortiz was a known commodity for over a decade, and last season he was one of the two best hitters on the highest-scoring offense in the majors. His absence leaves the Red Sox with a major hole in their lineup.

At one point, Hanley Ramirez looked like the heir apparent at DH. Last year he proved to be a pretty good first baseman who will likely remain in that spot next season. The good news is the Red Sox have options. The sexiest move would be to sign a big free agent like Edwin Encarnacion, whom the Sox are expected to pursue. Other free-agent options include Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista.

The Sox could also try to fill that void internally by using a combination of players. Taking Sandoval out of the field is a plus, especially if he can starting hitting like he did in San Francisco again. There’s also enough depth via Chris Young, Holt and perhaps Shaw that a rotation is possible. Either way, someone not named David Ortiz will have to DH for the Sox next season.

5.) What do they do with their catchers?

The Red Sox had a revolving door at catcher for most of the season. It started with Blake Swihart as the Opening Day catcher, but he struggled and was turned into a left fielder before getting hurt. Then came Christian Vazquez, who was called up in mid April after missing all of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. He looked good early, but slumped mightily in the middle of the year. Sandy Leon was called up in July, and remained the starting catcher the rest of the way as he posted .293 TAv in 283 plate appearances. The Sox also had Ryan Hanigan, who spent the year as the dependable backup through all the slumps and injuries at the position, and Bryan Holaday, who basically served as Pomeranz’s personal catcher.

Hanigan has a team option for next season and Holaday is a free agent. The Red Sox will probably let them go, leaving them with three catchers vying for one starting job next season. Both Vazquez and Swihart are promising despite disappointing seasons. Leon got off to an impressive start, but his .211/.276/.242 slash line over the final 29 games leaves skepticism over the legitimacy of that run.

The Sox have no need to improve the catcher position. However, it’s unclear who’s starting, who’s sitting and who’s going to Pawtucket. Based on his achievements last season, Leon probably deserves the starting job. Vazquez, meanwhile, has plenty to prove. Swihart is the most interesting case. He’s without a doubt the most likely trade candidate of the three, and could be dangled as part of a major trade offer. It’s also unclear whether or not the Sox plan to keep him as a catcher or return him to the outfield.

***

I suppose the real first step for Dombrowski is finding a new general manager. Once that happens, it’s time to improve a roster that appears close to World Series contention. There aren’t quite as many issues to address this offseason as opposed to the last two, but this winter is an important one for a team as disappointing as the Sox were in the playoffs.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The rotation has faced criticism all season. Heck, all eyes were on pitching before the year even started. Early struggles from the likes of David Price and Buchholz only heightened the scrutiny as the rotation soon became one of the worst in baseball. But the emergence and Porcello and Steven Wright spared the Sox from ever reaching the lows of last season. It also helped top have the best offense in the majors backing them. However, the rotation eventually rounded to form. Wright’s season effectively ended on the base paths, but Price looked like himself, Rodriguez returned to health, the Good Buchholz showed up, Rick Porcello continued to dominate and Pomeranz added much-needed depth. Suddenly, the Sox had a rotation good enough to complement the offense in the race for the division crown.

The Red Sox enter the season’s final week with a stronger rotation than anyone could’ve imagined. Despite its faults, the Sox’s rotation ranks 11th in starter’s ERA (4.23) and is tied for seventh in starter’s DRA (4.04). Four of their five starters have K/9s of seven or better and all are walking less than four batters per nine innings. This rotation has proven itself viable enough to – coupled with a major-league best offense – lead a deep playoff run. 

The Red Sox begin that quest for another World Series title in just over a week, likely beginning with Porcello in Game 1 of the division series. He will presumably be followed by Price, Rodriguez and Buchholz. That’s a solid rotation. But how does it stack up with the other recent Sox championship rotations? Here’s what the numbers say about this year’s group.

Porcello was the only of those four who was consistent throughout the season. Advanced statistics were kind to Price all year, but his April and May performances were about as bad as he’s ever been. But this rotation wasn’t determined by season-long performance. This group is being assembled mostly due to its performance over the last couple months of the season, including here in September. The Red Sox’s September ERAs are as follows: Porcello – 2.41; Price – 3.60; Rodriguez – 3.18; and Buchholz – 3.97. That’s pretty good. Let’s hope it’s indicative of the type of rotation the Sox will have in October as well.

As for the championship seasons:

2004

The 2004 rotation had the best starter’s DRA in the majors (3.82) and the 12th-ranked starter’s ERA (4.31). This was a team with a pair of aces in the latter half of their careers in Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, but clearly had enough left to have quality seasons. The Sox got about what they expected from each of these four starters in the regular season. Most importantly, those players were consistent for most of the regular season. Those performances carried into the playoffs as well, although Arroyo was moved to the bullpen while Lowe started the clinchers in both the ALCS and World Series.

2007

The 2007 Red Sox got an outstanding regular season (and postseason) from Josh Beckett in his second year with the club. Schilling was on his last leg, but a viable enough No. 2 starter, and Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid debut season. Wakefield was, well, Wakefield. The Sox didn’t quite have the one-two punch at the top of the rotation they had in 2004, but it was more balanced from top to bottom, owning the third-best start’s DRA (4.11) and fourth-best starter’s ERA (4.21) What set this team apart from 2004 or 2016 was Beckett, who had arguably the best Red Sox season for a pitcher since Martinez’s 2002 campaign. That applies to October too, as Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA in four playoff starts. Jon Lester finished the run in the postseason rotation, taking Wakefield’s spot and winning the Game 4 World Series clincher in Colorado.

2013

The 2016 rotation probably best compares to this one. The 2013 team’s playoff rotation wasn’t solidified until the end of the season, primarily due to Buchholz missing significant time on the disabled list and the trade-deadline acquisition of Jake Peavy. Overall, they finished with the sixth-best starter’s DRA (3.48) and 11th-best starter’s ERA (3.84). John Lackey’s season was very much like Porcello’s this season. Both starters had bad starts to their Boston tenures (although Lackey’s was more prolonged), and bounced back in a big way to help lead the Red Sox to the playoffs. When he did pitch, Buchholz put up All-Star caliber numbers, and Peavy was solid in 10 starts. The playoffs wound up being all Lester and Lackey as Buchholz and Peavy struggled for most of the title run. However, it proved to be enough. Lester posted a 1.56 playoff ERA while Lackey sported a 2.77 mark, accounting for seven playoff wins while the offense and bullpen carried the team from there.

***

The 2016 Red Sox’s starting rotation doesn’t have the predictability of past teams outside of Porcello and Price, but it has the potential to be just as good as the recent championship teams in the playoffs. This rotation has certainly had its lows, but the last two months have shown us that it is championship-caliber, especially when you look at the rotations of those past teams. Price was acquired to be the type of pitcher Beckett and Schilling were brought in to be. Porcello’s comeback story seems written for him to finish the year on top. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s offense is good enough to win if Rodriguez and Buchholz are simply good, although both have shown flashes of greatness of late. There’s no telling what the Red Sox will get from this foursome in the playoffs, but there’s the potential for it to make its own history.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox are in good standing within the American League East; Baseball Prospectus has their probability of winning the division at 94.6%. So it is a pretty safe bet they will be playing in one of the two AL Division Series which means we can start considering how to align the starting rotation for that series. Given that the series is only five games played over seven nights, a rotation of three guys will work. David Price pitches Games 1 and 4,* while Rick Porcello throws Games 2 and 5 (or reverse those two names). So who throws Game 3? The candidates are Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz. Two lefties and a righty. Here are their likely opponents wRC+ splits:

Man, it would be nice to play that luck-filled, below average Rangers’ offense. Other than the Rangers and Blue Jays, it appears as though the best option is to use one of the two lefty options – this is especially true if the Orioles are the opponent. While Pomeranz (3.40 ERA, 3.25 DRA) has had a better season than Rodriguez (4.84 ERA, 5.96 DRA), he has struggled lately, which Ian Browne of MLB.com suggests is due to fatigue. With this considered, perhaps riding the recently effective (and not fatigued) Rodriguez (3.18 ERA, 17/5 K/BB in September) is the better course of action.

Using Rodriguez in the rotation for the ALDS moves Pomeranz and Buchholz to the bullpen to relieve and wait for a chance to start in the ALCS should the team get that far. Buchholz has been shuffled all over the place this season and was all but written off around the trade deadline. Since then he has relieved and started effectively, and looks ahead to an opportunity to be relied upon to close out a division championship and take the ball in a potentially pivotal ALCS game. He recently spoke with David Laurila of FanGraphs about this issue as part of larger discussion on the need to be constantly adjusting over his career.

The pitching will garner a lot of our attention (for example, I just broke down the splits of potential opponents to determine the rotation two weeks ahead of that being necessary) and will likely be blamed for any team flameout. But really if the Red Sox are going to make a deep run in the playoffs this year their offense will need to carry them.

An important part of that Red Sox offense is Hanley Ramirez, who, in 2016, has emerged as the force that we expected when he signed with the team prior to last season. In the last 30 days, Hanley has been a man on fire, posting a .340/.405/.728 slashline with 12 home runs. On the season his line is up to .293/.363/.515 (.281 TAv, 129 wRC+). To put that in a perspective relevant to Red Sox fans: in 2015 his on-base percentage was .291, two points worse than his current batting average. Simply put, Hanley has been a force in the middle of the order. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more details on Hanley’s one-year transformation from a relatively easy out with little power, to a difficult out with frightening power.

Stories of positive clubhouse chemistry and player character tend to go hand-in-hand with a team’s results. When a team is winning, they have a strong chemistry. When a player is performing well, they are engaged and a leader in the clubhouse. Which thing comes first – winning or chemistry/character/leadership – remains to be demonstrated cleanly, so reading too much into these common narratives should be done with caution. Hanley Ramirez is often a strong example of this sort of story. When things are good, Hanley is a leader who has put his malcontent ways behind him (example, another example). So perhaps Michael Silverman’s article in the Boston Herald suggesting that Hanley has taken a leadership role on the 2016 Red Sox should not be surprising given Hanley’s (and the team’s) performance this year. Regardless of if Hanley’s clubhouse approach changed before the season or once things started rolling well for him, his presence as a veteran is an interesting, albeit peripheral, aspect to consider, especially given the article’s focus on his relationship with Yoan Moncada. Ideally Hanley just keeps hitting rockets all over the field and is, in turn, a positive influence on the younger players for the remainder of his Red Sox tenure.

Quick Hits

Much like Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello was a much maligned aspect of the 2015 Red Sox. His contract extension was questioned and likely contributed to Ben Cherington’s ouster. But this year Porcello is demonstrating his worth. His ERA is down almost two runs (4.92 to 3.08), with corresponding drops in FIP (4.13 to 3.44) and DRA (4.14 to 3.44). In light of Porcello’s 2016 performance, Alex Speier wonders what Porcello would be worth if he hit the free agent market now. All things considered, it now seems reasonable to view the extension Porcello signed with the Red Sox as a bargain. What a difference a year can make.

There was a time in the not too distant past that the Red Sox’s bullpen looked as though it would be the team’s undoing. However, lately that outlook has changed entirely and now the ‘pen appears to be a strength. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive notes that the relief group is rested and deep and ready for a postseason run. Tim Britton of The Providence Journal outlines a similar sentiment and suggests that the key to the bullpen’s about-face might be the return of Koji Uehara, who has resumed his eighth inning role with great success. What a difference a few weeks can make.

The Red Sox have players in the mix in a few of the end-of-year award categories, the foremost being American League MVP. While Mike Trout leads the universe in all forms of wins-above-replacement, voters will not necessarily perform a sort-by-WAR before filling out their MVP ballots. This means Mookie Betts, who has the second most WAR in the AL according to all three major forms of the measurement, has a chance to win. He is on a winning team, has 200+ hits, has 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, etc.. Yet, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests that Mookie may not even be the clear choice for the award on the Red Sox, as David Ortiz’s incredible final season deserves recognition.

Let’s take another moment to appreciate David Ortiz. Through Tuesday’s games here are Big Papi’s 2016 numbers and where they rank all-time among seasons by a 40+ year old (courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

He is putting on an awesome show. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald recaps Ortiz’s recent meeting with the media in which he reflected on his career, his teammates, the 2016 Red Sox’s playoff chances, and the the possibility of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

A significant part of Mookie Betts’ MVP resume is his stellar defense in right field. A month ago in this Read Sox series I detailed how important the improved Red Sox defense has been to their success this season, specifically highlighting stories on Mookie’s arm. This time around we can appreciate his range. Deesha Thosar at MLB.com examines, with the help of Statcast, two awesome catches that Mookie made against the Yankees.

The Red Sox’s lone trade deadline acquisition was LOOGY Fernando Abad but he has been… well you’ve probably seen Ben Carsley’s article on the foreshadowing that exists in reliever last names. Abad’s performance has left open the role of LOOGY and 27-year old Robby Scott has made the most of his opportunities to assume it. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald outlines Scott’s long road to the major leagues and appreciation of all that came along the way. Scott has an excellent chance to add to his story with some high leverage moments in the postseason.

Three Good Game Stories

On Tuesday night, Eduardo Rodriguez was good-Eduardo and the offense managed to get things going off Kevin Gausman in a way they were unable to a week ago. The win made it six straight for the Sox and pushed their division lead over the O’s to five games with 11 to play. In his game story, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes that Rodriguez made a strong case to be the No. 3 starter for the team going forward. Hopefully he carries Tuesday’s result into his next start.

On Sunday, the Red Sox effectively ended the Yankees’ chances at a playoff spot this season, as they finished off the four-game series sweep. It was the first time the Red Sox swept a four-game series against the Yankees since 1990. Chris Mason of the Boston Herald has more on the hero of the night, Hanley Ramirez, who hit two home runs and earned a curtain call from the Fenway faithful.

Last Thursday the Red Sox got arguably their best win of the season when they rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Yankees. Hanley Ramirez was the hero again, sending a 99mph Dellin Betances fastball to the moon for a walk-off homer. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe details how exciting the win was for the young players on the team who are experiencing a playoff run for the first time in their careers.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

You’d think it would be from the dude with the gorgeous flow, but nope. It’s the error that started it all. The first time Sandy Leon hit a grounder to Chris Davis, a rally was killed. The second time, a rally was started. That miscue was worth .292 WPA, which beat out what Benintendi did next by 50 points. You could say this was redemption for Leon, but he really didn’t do much. Davis did all the heavy lifting here.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Wouldn’t you know it, it’s that double play Leon grounded into. Ubaldo Jimenez had started to be a little bit wild – missing pitches, fastballs getting away from him, pretty much the stuff that makes your stomach sink when you see your pitcher doing it. The ball was hit solidly, and if Davis was any closer to the line than that, that probably scores two, and keeps it from being a -.190 WPA play. Just some bad luck for Sandy in that one and a good play by Davis, that’s all.

Key Moment

You already know.

Remember back in 2008, when it seemed like the Tampa Bay Rays would capitalize and score on every mistake? That’s what the Red Sox are doing right now, and man, does it feel good to watch someone else on the receiving end of that.

Trends to Watch

1. Clay Buchholz’s $13.5M option is most likely going to be picked up. No way the Red Sox are going to let some team like the Pirates get him and turn him into a Cy Young contender. Neither DRA or FIP really like him, but good things happen when you stop allowing 1.9 HR per nine innings. Out of his last six starts (which includes this one), he’s allowed only one run in four of them. Zombie Clay is the best Clay.

2. We all love Sandy Leon, but man, his September has been abysmal. He’s slashing .237/.292/.288 this month, and there’s not a lot of reassuring things that could be said. It’s just BABIP regression, plain and simple. The hits aren’t falling in like they used to. This might be the end of Sandy Leon, Baseball Deity, but he’s probably earned himself a spot on this roster come 2017.

3. The Red Sox are really loving the hit-a-flashy-homer-in-a-big-situation play. You have Hanley Ramirez’s two timely blasts on Sunday, then Betts’ eighth homer at Camden Yards this season in Monday’s game, followed by Ortiz’s three-run shot on Tuesday, and finally Benintendi’s dinger yesterday. This is not me complaining – this is me in awe of how it’s just like clockwork to these guys.

Coming Next

The Red Sox go for a second straight sweep of a four-game series. The Red Sox will counter the Orioles’ Chris Tillman by sending out David Price, who has thrown 14 innings of three-run ball with zero walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts against Baltimore. Magic number: 6

Photo by Evan Habeeb/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

Joaquin Benoit vs. David Ortiz with men on base in a huge spot.

You’ve heard this story before. You already know the ending.

That’s a .367 WPA. For reference, the grand slam in the 2013 ALCS has a .452 mark. If it wasn’t for what Dustin Pedroia did in Anaheim, this would be the biggest hit of the season so far.

Bottom Play (WPA)

In a game that went back and forth so often, there really weren’t that many negative plays to go around. But in the bottom of the sixth inning, the Blue Jays tried to respond to Ortiz’s homer by leading off with a single from Ryan Goins. Devon Travis came up against Brad Ziegler, and promptly grounded into a double play. That was worth a -.118 WPA, easily the worst mark from either team.

The weird part is, MLB.com didn’t make this a highlight. What they did make into a highlight was Ziegler striking out Edwin Encarnacion to end the inning. Sure, it’s cool, but…c’mon.

Key Moment

Since the Ortiz homer is all you’re going to be seeing and hearing, I’ll pick something different here for the sake of not sounding like a broken record. Koji Uehara came into the game in the eighth inning, and with one out and a man on first, he faced the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, and got a double play out of him. Huge for the Red Sox and especially for Koji, because if he’s well and truly back, the Red Sox will be a lot more terrifying come October.

Trends to Watch

1. Koji being a legitimate eighth inning option again. He’s come from being out for the rest of the season, to maybe being able to pitch in October, to locking down key at-bats against an in-division rival in September. Adding another reliable reliever to Kimbrel and Ziegler would do wonders for this team.

2. The Red Sox kicked off a stretch of 23 straight games against divisional opponents with a strong series win in Toronto. While they don’t face the Blue Jays again until their last series of the year, the Red Sox play Baltimore seven times until then, and as of right now, Baltimore is tied in the standings with Toronto. Being able to get four wins out of those contests would go a long way for the Red Sox.

Coming Next

The first of those games against the Orioles comes on Monday. Baltimore will start Wade Miley, while the Red Sox send out David Price against a team that, surprisingly, is 26th in the majors in OPS when facing left-handed pitching.

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Given all that, you can see that this three-gamer in Toronto is pretty important. We here at BP Boston aren’t typically in the habit of previewing every series. Maybe we should be, but the season is so long and there are only so many John Farrell jokes and on-pace-for stats one person can legally be subjected to over a six-month span. So we mostly don’t. But this! This is an exception, because this is very important. It’s not the playoffs, but if you wanted to look at the next 23 games as a series between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees, you wouldn’t be all that wrong. So, with that out of the way, hello. I’m Matt and together we’re going to preview the heck out of this series.

SERIES NOTES

1. The Blue Jays starters have the fourth-best ERA in baseball this season and the best in the American League. The Red Sox are tenth on that list.

2. Over the past 30 days, Red Sox starters have the second-best ERA in baseball and the best in the American League. The Blue Jays are 15th on that list.

3. Make some sense out of points 1 and 2, please. I double dog dare you.

4. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is at it again, and by “it” I mean being incredibly good. Has he been better than Red Sox MVP hopeful Mookie Betts? By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Betts has been better.

5. By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Mike Trout has been better than Betts though so, please people, I love Mookie Betts too, but can we give the best player in baseball the best player award?

6. Who is the starting third baseman for the Red Sox? Yoan Moncada was a 21-year-old prospect in Double-A, then he was the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox, and now he’s a 21-year-old prospect with a lousy albeit small batting record and a seat on the bench. For now it looks like Travis Shaw’s job to lose.

7. Can Shaw lose it again? Considering his body of work you’d sure think so, but where does Farrell go now? Moncada again? Maybe for a short period of time but you have to think Farrell will try harder to keep both feet out of his mouth by declaring the rookie the unquestioned starter again. Maybe Aaron Hill has something left in the tank? Maybe Aaron Hill has a tank! That could be helpful.

8. The Red Sox bullpen has been mediocre this year and downright bad recently but consider: the return of Koji from the DL (one perfect inning pitched, two strikeouts) and the new and improved Joe Kelly (three IP, five hits, no runs, five strikeouts, no walks) might just be the keys to… drat. I almost made it through that sentence with a straight face.

9. It’s true Koji and probably Kelly to a lesser extent could help the bullpen, but that’s mostly because they couldn’t make it worse. There’s no harm in flicking lit matches at your neighbor’s house but if it’s already engulfed in flames. Flick all you want.

10. The Jays bullpen has been about as lousy as Boston’s. The differences seem to be three:

    1. The Red Sox pen has been hurt by walks

    2. The Blue Jays pen has been hurt by home runs

    3. Roberto Osuna, who has given up seven homers in 60 innings, has been better than Craig Kimbrel, who has walked 22 in 44.1 innings.

    4. You see what I’m saying here.

11. Both teams crush the snot out of the ball.

12. The Red Sox crush more snot out of more balls, making them better snot-crushers out of balls. Their certificate is surely in the mail.

GAME 1: Rick Porcello vs. Marco Estrada

1. You have to go back to July 24 to find the last time Rick Porcello gave up four or more runs in a start. Before that, you have to back to June 23. So, fun with arbitrary endpoints: since June 24, Rick Porcello has given up three or fewer runs in every start except one.

2. Marco Estrada was the pitching surprise of last season. He had one of the lowest BABIPs in baseball history and then he started pulling the same garbage again this season. But then the second half of the season rolled around and, despite most of his underlying numbers looking the same, Estrada’s ERA has shot up from below three to 5.00. The baseball gods do exist and they find Marco Estrada’s precious ERA hilarious.

3. David Ortiz will not be pitching today, but he will be back in the lineup for the first time since last Sunday. Big Papi has 23 games left and, maybe, hopefully a few more if the Sox can win a few more of those 23 than they lose. Don’t think Big Papi doesn’t know that. I’d suggest buckling that safety belt.

GAME 2: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. J.A. Hap

1. What is Eduardo Rodriguez? Here are his runs allowed for all his starts dating back to July 27: 3, 1, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0. He’s either been amazing (two shutouts, one cut short by injury), very good (multiple one run starts), or a mess. In the first of those three run performances he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, and in the second he didn’t make it out of the fourth. Then he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning last start. I suppose this is what promise looks like up close. If he gets on a roll, oh gosh, baseball would need to watch the heck out.

2. Happ is, as far as I can tell, Estrada. He’s been very good, much better in fact, than anyone had a right to expect. But, like Estrada, over the past month he’s come apart a little bit, mostly due to giving up home runs.

3. There’s a narrative out there that the Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handers, which would seem to give an advantage to Happ, but it’s not true. The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against right-handers and an .811 OPS against left-handers. Not that OPS is the greatest statistic but it paints the picture just fine.

4. At this point Red Sox will have faced two of Toronto’s best three starters and have a very real shot at winning both games.

GAME 3: Clay Buchholz vs. Aaron Sanchez

1. This is the game where Toronto has the clear advantage in the pitching matchup. Sanchez hasn’t been as dominant of late but he’s been almost as effective. The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks have come up, both of which could be a result of him plowing past 170 innings (he’s two thirds short), about 35 beyond his career high. The Jays have been toying with the idea of shutting Sanchez down, moving to a six-man rotation, skipping his starts, and/or sending him to outer space, all with the intent of limiting his innings. Problem is, they’re in a dogfight for the AL East and indeed the playoffs and they need this guy.

2. Clay Buchholz stars in, As The World Turns. Buchholz went from sure second starter to back end of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the bullpen guy, to vital rotation piece. The latest incarnation of The Clay is indebted to to Steven Wright’s injured shoulder for the opportunity, but his non-injured shoulder for seizing it. In his last three starts, Buchholz has pitched 19 innings, given up three runs, struck out 18, and walked two. He’s pitching like the guy he was supposed to be at the beginning of the year. Remember Derek Lowe’s 2004 season? How weird would that be?

The totality of the series is going to result in one of three things: the Blue Jays sweeping and taking a two game lead over Boston, the Red Sox sweeping and taking a four game lead over Toronto, or a split of some sort keeping things pretty close. In fact, the Red Sox are in a very good position because by winning just one of these, they insulate themselves from losing a share of first place.

Of course, they could do much better than that. We’ve waited all year for this team to realize its potential and kick things into a higher gear. This is as good an opportunity as they’ve yet seen. This year’s Red Sox have specialized in squandering good opportunities but they still have a few chances left. The season isn’t over yet.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Last time I checked in with Read Sox, we were welcoming Andrew Benintendi to the majors by appreciating his success and interviewing a host of the outfielder’s relatives. Now, Benintendi is hurt and the new top prospect du jour is Yoan Moncada. And, while he has a few hits in the bigs under his belt, the theme in analysis of the young third baseman has been his proficiency to not hit baseballs he swings at. In his past two games, Moncada has made seven at-bats and has struck out in — oof — all seven of them. This rather unsustainable K-rate has been the subject of much fodder on the Boston-based interwebs.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe checked in with this analysis of Moncada, comparing his swing-and-miss to the strikeout frequency of other recent Red Sox prospects. The Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote about the young Cuban as a work in progress, albeit a very good one. Rob Bradford of WEEI took a similar tack, discussing the ups-and-downs that have befallen the first week of Moncada’s major-league career. Bradford poses an interesting question: can the Red Sox, in the midst of such a tight division race, afford to be patient as Moncada adjusts to a new level of play? ESPN’s Scott Lauber says the answer is no, and that the team needs to pump the brakes with their newest and youngest third baseman.

While Moncada has been at least slightly disappointing in a miniscule sample size, it’s certainly worth noting that this result was not entirely unforeseen. Of the two wunderkids in the Sox farm system, Andrew Benintendi was viewed all season as the one more prepared for the jump to the bigs. Moncada sat out a full season after defecting from Cuba and had less than a year-and-a-half of experience in the minors before his call-up. Meanwhile, Benintendi played two years of high-level college ball in the SEC, and did so very well, before being drafted and working through the team’s system.

So far, Moncada has struck out in over half of his at-bats (10 out of 18) and opposing pitchers seem to have picked up on his trouble with off-speed pitches. Per Baseball Info Solutions via FanGraphs, Moncada has been thrown hard pitches just 56.6 percent of the time (with cutters included). He has been on the receiving end of sliders and curves in a combined 30.2 percent of pitches. Including changeups, almost half of the pitches coming his way have been off-speed, and the results have been less than thrilling; his whiff rate on breaking pitches is more than double that on fastballs thus far.

Moncada will get better and will learn how to hit off-speed pitches. All of these statistics should be taken with an industrial-sized pile of salt because of the minuscule sample size. And regardless, Moncada’s electrifying athleticism and speed merit him a spot on the roster both now and if the Red Sox make the postseason. It’s worth noting that temporarily deposed (and now maybe reinstated?) third baseman Travis Shaw has played for the past week like a man trying to keep his job. Shaw added a homer and three RBIs in a 7-2 win over San Diego on Wednesday night with Moncada mercifully given the day off after the seven straight punchouts. Shaw’s viability as an everyday third baseman will have a lot of bearing on Moncada’s playing time as long the growing pains continue for the 21-year-old. And right now, hitting 8-for-17 with a pair of dingers and nine RBI in his past five games, Shaw looks more than viable.

In the past, with the team in contention, the Sox have been the beneficiaries of top prospects who perform admirably under the bright lights of an October pennant race. Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 and Xander Bogaerts in 2013 were called up and performed immediately. So the less-than-perfect start for Moncada is disappointing in the context of a few who came before him.

Sox fans may have to settle for just one top prospect (hopefully) lighting it up down the stretch; Andrew Benintendi has begun fielding fly balls and seems to be making good progress in returning from his knee injury.

Quick Hits

A lot of Red Sox fans don’t really like Clay Buchholz. Shocking, I know. For much of his Fenway career, the right-hander has infuriated the Faithful, alternately performing well but getting hurt and, uh, performing less than well. He has a team option at $13 million for 2017 that, in June, seemed like a hilariously improbable proposition. Now, well, we’re reading and writing about how smart and inevitable exercising that option seems to be, like this article by Ben Buchanan of Over the Monster. Buchholz has ma– I’m about to compliment Clay Buchholz, please send aid immediately — Buchholz has made the difficult shift to and from the bullpen very comfortably, and now boasts a 2.05 ERA in his past six outings, three of them starts. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, Buchholz figures to play an important role on this team down the stretch. Everyone strap in.

Maybe it wasn’t a great idea for Steven Wright to be used as a pinch-runner. Maybe Steven Wright should be able to take a lead off second base without hurting his shoulder and jeopardizing his season. Maybe I get some twisted satisfaction out of blaming John Farrell for things. Maybe these are all true statements. Cafardo wrote about Wright’s injury, and the opportunity it afforded Buchholz to get back into the Red Sox rotation.

David Ortiz commented recently on Donald Trump’s proposed immigration policy, saying “it’s not fair” to immigrants. This, predictably, has gotten picked up by media outlets around the country and made a multitude of headlines. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald commended Ortiz for making his opinion known, and implored athletes to do so more often.

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images