There is no denying that his 2017 performance was down from 2016, but by BP’s WARP it was by less than half a win, so not really a drop that should have the team looking to cut bait. I will note that by FanGraphs WAR it was close to a two-win decrease in 2017 from 2016, which is certainly a more troubling account of how much worse 2017 was for Bogaerts. But even with the decrease considered, he was still a two-to-three-ish win player in 2017, and one who should be in the team’s plans for the next few seasons.

What Went Right in 2017

His first half. At the All-Star break, Bogaerts was hitting .303/.359/.447 with six home runs, and nine stolen bases (on ten tries). His strong performance over the first three-plus months made him a candidate for the American League All-Star team through the Final Vote, which was ultimately won by Mike Moustakas. Despite ending his streak for All Star game appearances at one, Bogaerts was showing that the above-average hitting he demonstrated in his standout 2016 and 2015 seasons was going to continue. Look at how free his swing looks on these two Father’s Day dingers against the Astros:

That is the sort of easy power for which Bogaerts has long been projected. Unfortunately a wrist injury, incurred right before the All-Star break, severely limited him from maintaining his strong hitting into the second half. More on that in the next section.

While his wrist hampered his hitting, there was nothing wrong with his legs. Bogaerts was the second-most productive baserunner on the team behind Mookie Betts, and seventh-best in all of baseball. He ended the season 15-for-16 in stolen base attempts, good for the third-best success rate among players with at least 15 tries. He adopted the team’s mandate for aggression on the basepaths, and while he made nine outs in doing so, he was still very effective in the approach.

What Went Wrong in 2017

Jacob Faria of the Rays is what went wrong. On July 6th, Faria lost a 1-2 pitch inside, hit Bogaerts on the right wrist, and entirely disrupted his season. After posting a tremendous first half at the plate, Bogaerts was pretty miserable in the second half: .235/.324/.347. A .347 slugging percentage? That is junk. Without two healthy arms, his power was just sapped. What’s more is the injury seemed to change his approach. He was much more patient in the second half, lowering his swing percentage by almost four points. That is not necessarily a bad thing. For example, his walk rate jumped close to four percentage points, which is great. But I wonder if swinging (and making contact) hurt him enough, or he didn’t trust his wrist enough, that he just didn’t want to do it as often. Alternatively, this is a reasonable change between halves of a season and I should be careful attributing too much to the injury. Regardless, watching him get into bad counts after watching hittable pitches go by early in his plate appearances and then flailing at breaking balls off the plate was frustrating for fans, and I am sure it was for Bogaerts too.

The other main down spot for Bogaerts last year, and throughout his career, was his defense. It is difficult to know exactly what to make of Bogaerts as a defender. By fielding runs above average (FRAA) and defensive runs saved (DRS), Boagerts rated as an awful defender. His -11 DRS was the worst mark among qualified shortstops, and his -9.4 FRAA was fifth-worst (among those with at least 350 plate appearances). But then ultimate zone rating (UZR) had him as more of a middle of the pack shortstop. Watching Bogaerts night-in and night-out I didn’t get the sense that he was a hacker out there, but I am sure the same argument was raised in support of Mr. Jeter when metrics suggested he was a mess of a defender. I guess what matters is that, while they don’t agree entirely, all three public measures of defense had Bogaerts as a below average performer last year, so it seems safe to say defense was not a bright spot for him.

What to expect in 2018

Barring a huge shakeup this offseason, Bogaerts will be the Opening Day shortstop and slotted into a spot in the top half of the lineup. Ideally he is able to get his wrist healthy this offseason so that he can get back to smacking the ball all over the park as he was in the first half of this past season. Restored health and a new manager, who many anticipate will have a discernible effect on players like Bogaerts, should be a boon for Bogaerts’ development.

All-in-all, I think the primary issue surrounding Bogaerts is one of comparing him to expectations rather than appreciating what he has done. So far in his career he has been an average to slightly-above-average player (2-3 WARP) each season, which is great, but becomes not so great if lined up against expectations. People see him as a franchise guy who should be posting 4-7 WARP seasons with ease. So when he doesn’t do that, and has periods where he looks downright lost at the plate, the calls to move on from him get loud.

Honestly, that is silly. While he might not consistently reach the upper bounds of the expectations laid out for him, he has a high-floor and, this needs repeating, is just 25 years old. Those are undoubtedly good things to have in a shortstop.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Put this all together, and it is easy to see how 2017 appears like it will be the culmination of the Astros’ tear-down and rebuild, along with the fulfillment of Sports Illustrated’s 2014 prediction of them winning the World Series. Beating the Astros seems daunting. Given the Red Sox’s underdog status, it is worth considering how their style of play, namely aggressive baserunning, putting the ball in play, and strong defense particularly in the outfield, matches up against these daunting Astros.

Aggressive Baserunning

The Red Sox ran wild on the basepaths this year. A few weeks ago I expressed my concerns with their approach to baserunning, and not much has changed since. They attempted 137 stolen bases this year, seventh most in baseball. They took an extra base 43 percent of the time, tied for the third highest rate in baseball. They advanced on fly balls, passed balls and wild pitches 175 times, which was tied for the fourth most in baseball. Trying to take an extra base is of course a worthy effort, but there are costs, which is where my concerns entered the frame. Red Sox batters’ aggression on the bases resulted in 118 baserunning outs (81 Outs on the Bases [OOB], 31 caught stealing, six pickoffs). That total was the third-highest in baseball this year. By now I am sure you get the point: they tried to push bags and made a lot of outs doing so, ultimately leading to below average results (-3.5 BRR). The Astros were similarly aggressive on the bases, but I will leave that for now, and instead focus on how Houston fared in limiting opponents base running efforts.

The most obvious place to start is with the Astros’ control of the base stealing game. By the simplest measure, stolen base percentage, the Astros were miserable at holding runners. Their 88 SB%-allowed (116 attempts) was the worst in baseball and six percentage points ahead of the second worst White Sox. BP’s advanced catching metrics include Swipe Rate Above Average (SRAA), which attempts to account for things like pitchers’ times to the plate and quality of baserunners. By SRAA, among catchers with at least 2,000 pitches received, Evan Gattis and Brian McCann (Houston’s two primary catchers) were third and fifth worst. With this in mind, Red Sox runners should feel comfortable trying to steal a base, and this goes especially for late game pinch runners like Rajai Davis.

Stealing bases, while the most salient part of a team’s baserunning, is only one part. Advancing extra bases on balls to the outfield is another critical part. An example of just how important tagging up on a flyball can be happened in Game 7 of last year’s World Series. As noted, the Red Sox have been aggressive in trying to take extra bases, but against the Astros they should take greater caution. The Astros feature outfielders with strong arms. By both Fangraph’s ARM measure and Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Average, the Astros outfielders have the best group of arms among the teams remaining. George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher, and Marwin Gonzalez each rated above average. I know Brian Butterfield wants the team to move away from being a station-to-station team, but giving up outs is not an ideal way to do so. I am interested in seeing if the Red Sox tone things down a bit in this series.

Making Contact

The Red Sox finished the season among the league leaders in Contact percentage, trailing only Houston and Cleveland for top spot. Much has been made about the Red Sox’s inability to hit home runs, or their general lack of power. Instead they were a group that strung hits and walks together to score runs and had strong plate appearances against the power pitchers of the league. The good news is that most of the Astros’ rotation includes pitchers who would be classified as power pitchers, at least by Baseball-Reference’s split definition. These are the types of pitchers against whom the Red Sox have fared well, relative to the rest of the league. In accordance with the power pitcher label, Astros hurlers tend to strike a lot of guys out – they finished third in baseball in strikeout rate – but as you know the Red Sox do not strike out very often. Something is going to give here.

We know that when the Red Sox put the ball in play it tends to stay in the yard. Putting the ball in play means the Houston defense will be tested and they were not exactly a strong group on defense:

Note: UZR is not available for catchers and I was not sure about how to combine Gonzalez’s infielding (generally bad) and outfielding (generally good) numbers.

The differences across metrics are difficult to reconcile, and because these numbers are based on a single season of data we are dealing with wide confidence intervals, but you can see this group lacked something on the defensive side of the game. Ideally the Red Sox’s put-it-in-play approach can take advantage of this.

Defense

While we lauded Red Sox batter’s ability to avoid strikeouts, the Astros were even better; two full percentage points better. They hit home runs, hit for power, and they run. Simply put, the Astros’ offense is excellent. This means the Red Sox’s defense will need to be on point. There were times this season when the Red Sox struggled defensively and it lead to frustrating games. However, in the end they finished as a top three defensive group by DRS and UZR. Here is a table for Red Sox’s defenders similar to the one I gave above for the Astros:

Mookie’s numbers are just silly. BP sees Jackie Bradley’s defense as below average, which is surprising, but otherwise things are in line with what I expected and you can see this was a strong defensive group. They can go and get it, which should help tamp down the Astros lineup that puts the ball in play, and give Red Sox pitchers confidence that they can attack within the strike zone.

All told, it seems like the Red Sox’s style of aggressive baserunning, hitting for contact, and playing strong defense line up well against this Astros team. That is not a startling revelation, as for the most part those things line-up well against any team and that is why the Red Sox won their division. Nevertheless, I understand how the Red Sox come into the series as the underdog. The Astros are an excellent baseball team. But the Red Sox are at least a really good one, and the differences between these teams are not that large in a best-of-five series. Especially when the Red Sox can send Chris Sale to the mound for two of the five games (if necessary). On his own, Sale is as important as any other factor on this Red Sox team this postseason. Getting a solid outing from him tonight and taking Game 1 is critical for the Red Sox’s chances of winning the series. I will certainly be watching the aspects of the Red Sox’s style I outlined above, but mostly I’m just excited for the series to be underway.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

The defense is an issue because, perhaps more so than any recent season, because this version of the Red Sox was built to win through run prevention. Run prevention is often just thought of as starting pitching, and yes, while the Red Sox have some marquee names in their rotation, run prevention is also catching the ball, throwing to the right base, etc., and the Red Sox came into the season with a bunch of guys who do that well. But they aren’t doing it well. As a simple measure of this: by runs allowed per game the Red Sox have been a little bit better than a league average team. However, look at fielding independent pitching (FIP), which attempts to remove defenders from evaluating pitching performance, and you find that the Red Sox pitchers have been the third best group in the game. The difference between these two things (runs allowed and FIP) is not entirely attributable to good/bad defense, but some portion of it is and it looks like the Red Sox defenders have been failing their pitchers. The position players combining not scoring many runs with not catching the ball suggests they owe the pitchers a round-or-two of rye at the next team dinner.

Bar tabs aside, what is going on? Well, probably a number of things. First, have a look at this rather ominous table:

As you can see, in the playoff seasons (2013 and 2016) the Red Sox turned batted balls into outs at a much higher rate (defensive efficiency [DE] and park-adjusted defensive efficiency [PADE]) than in the division-cellar seasons (2014 and 2015). The bad news is that through Tuesday’s games the 2017 defensive efficiency numbers line up with those forgettable seasons a little too closely. Fortunately, thus far despite the wonky defense the 2017 runs-allowed average relative to the league is in line with the better seasons; this is made possible because the pitchers have struck out more than a quarter of the batters they have faced. Getting back to the defensive efficiency numbers, the difference between the 2016 and 2017 teams is striking given that the 2017 team is pretty much the 2016 team with expected improved defense in left field and at first base. Below is a year-to-year comparison for fielding runs above average:

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are on track for better defensive seasons relative to last year, but everyone else has been playing at a level that is about the same or considerably worse. Mitch Moreland is playing much worse than he did last year in his Gold Glove season at first base, but the good news is that he is still on track to be better than Hanley Ramirez (-10.4 FRAA in 1145.0 innings last year). The dropoff for Mookie is stunning, but does not correspond with how the defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rating (UZR) metrics see him – both have him performing much better thus far. I am not able to explain why these systems see him so differently. This, from Tuesday night, is a tremendous example of what he can do:

I do love a good outfield assist. Anyway, the difference across metrics is likely a sampling issue, as for all of these comparisons the small sample siren should blare. Defensive metrics in ~300 innings should be given a wide berth. Nevertheless, the initial returns are not looking great for many of the Sox’s defenders, which makes for interesting discussion fodder.

You may have noted that I omitted third basemen from the table above. I did so because too many guys have tried to hack it over there the last two years that it didn’t make for a clean comparison. With that said, as a group, this year’s third basemen are on track to be worse defensively than last year’s group, largely because Travis Shaw was a pretty solid contributor with the glove there last year. Having Deven Marrero man the position for the foreseeable few weeks should help the defense, until Brock Holt and/or Pablo Sandoval are back.

Now, above I mostly absolved the Red Sox pitchers of wrongdoing in the team’s measly start to the season. But, while they are FIPing with the best of them, this year’s group is allowing more hard contact (36.8 Hard Hit %; second highest in baseball) and a higher average exit velocity (88.3 mph, second highest in baseball) than last year’s group did (31.9 [11th], 87.4 [22nd], respectively). Harder hit balls are harder to field and this could explain some of the discrepancy in defensive efficiency from last season. Maybe the pitchers should buy their own drinks for the first round after all.

The batted ball profile of the pitchers is interesting to be sure, but it cannot explain all of the decline in defense the Red Sox are exhibiting through their first 38 games. Maybe, as the old saying goes, they are carrying their offensive woes out to the field. Or maybe it is all just the regular variation in defense that we often see from season-to-season, and the Red Sox have just come up on the wrong side of things more often through the first quarter of the season. Either way, it is hard to imagine that this group will continue to be so sloppy. With Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young as the four primary outfielders, the Red Sox have a center fielder available for all three spots. Pedroia and Bogaerts are at least average up the middle. As the shine continues to wear off Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez will see more time. There will remain problems on the corners in the infield, but those can be mitigated given the rest of the squad. But that is all on paper. Executing defensively is an often overlooked, but important component of winning baseball. If the Red Sox are going to continue to be limited offensively, at least as compared to last year, they will need to sharpen up their defense if they want to get back on top of the AL East standings.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

At the end of last week, Ben Carsley gave insight into Baseball Prospectus’ projection for the Red Sox, which, derived from PECOTA, has the team going 87-75 and claiming top spot in the American League East. But BP isn’t the only projection system in town. For example, the folks at FanGraphs have the Red Sox pegged for an AL East winning 91-71 record; slightly more favourable than BP’s projection. The FanGraphs projection comes from the Steamer and ZiPS systems, which, given the four-win difference at the team level, must differ from PECOTA for at least a few of the players. As such, I explored which Red Sox players have the largest discrepancies between the systems.

In order to make fair comparisons between systems, it is necessary to evaluate them for a common playing time. While it is certainly interesting if the projection systems expect different amounts of playing time for a given player, that difference will be reflected in their counting statistics (e.g., wins above replacement (player) [WAR(P)]). This can make it appear as though there are large differences in expected performance, when there actually are not (other than accumulating playing time). As such, I think lining things up makes comparisons between projection systems a little cleaner. With this in mind, for what you see below the hitting projections are scaled to be per-600 plate appearances (per-450 for catchers), and the pitching projections are scaled to be per-200 innings pitched for starters and per-65 innings pitched for relievers. These playing time figures can be debated, but they are intended to represent a season’s worth of time and therefore a decent baseline.

We’ll start on the hitting side. In most cases the three systems project the players in very similar ways (i.e., within one WAR(P)), but here are the Red Sox players (who will be regulars on the big league squad) for whom there is at least a one-win difference:

It turns out the differences for these players are largely driven by how the systems view the players’ defense. This makes assessing the differences considerably more difficult, as the defensive metrics that go into these systems can vary wildly in how they evaluate actual on-field performance (e.g., Dustin Pedroia last season), let alone anticipated performance. For example, all three systems expect Xander Bogaerts to be an above-average hitting-shortstop to similar degrees, but while Steamer and ZiPS project him to be a slightly below average defender (-1.8 and -2.5 fielding runs, respectively), PECOTA is really down on his defense, projecting -8.8 fielding runs above average (FRAA). The opposite situation explains the variation in Andrew Benintendi’s projections: PECOTA essentially views him as a center-fielder playing left-field, and therefore has him contributing 17 FRAA, but ZiPS, which also likes the outlook for his defense, only has him at 5.8, and Steamer projects him to be slightly below average (-0.7). Oddly enough, Jackie Bradley Jr., the team’s actual center fielder, is given the worst defensive projection by PECOTA (1.0 FRAA), while Steamer (7.1) and ZiPS (4.9) expect much better. Finally, nobody expects Sandy Leon to continue his Babe Ruth act from 2016, but only PECOTA projects his defense to be below average.

Obviously it remains to be seen which system will project the Red Sox’s (and other teams’) hitters most accurately, but in the meantime we can get an idea of the range of possibilities by looking at the average projection, and the best (highest) and worst (lowest) cases. Here is that exact thing for what I expect to be the everyday lineup (last year’s performance is included as a reference point):

There is almost a 10-win swing between the best and worst case projections, just in the everyday nine. Getting 25 wins above replacement from this group would be great. Keep in mind that a replacement level team (i.e., 0.0 WAR(P)) is expected to win around 52 games, so the best case scenario from the everyday lineup already gets the Red Sox in the neighbourhood of a .500 record. And that is without considering the bench, or the pitching.

With that said, we should consider the pitching side of things. The pitching comparisons are especially tricky due to the fact that the WAR metrics are calculated quite differently between FanGraphs (FIP-based) and BP (DRA-based). Regardless, here are the Red Sox hurlers for whom there is at least a 1-win difference:

The rotation! While to this point I have been focused on relative differences, it is worth noting that these projections are strong. The worst of the group is Eduardo Rodriguez’s at 1.8 WARP, which is fine. For the most part the differences are between PECOTA and ZiPS. As you can see, for each player ZiPS is the high-man, with PECOTA as the low-man and Steamer in the middle. This pattern is a result of the way the metrics are calculated, and makes examining the differences hard. With the exception of Fernando Abad, these three projection systems have very similar expectations (i.e., < 0.5 win difference) for the probable Red Sox relievers. But as the table above shows, when it comes to the rotation, Red Sox fans should be rooting for the ZiPS projections to best represent what will happen this coming season.

In the end, barring major injury – I am not including David Price in that category yet – the Red Sox appear to have a clear path to the division crown. But as is evident from this little exercise, the range of outcomes is considerable. We can keep this all in mind over the next six months, but regardless of which system turns out to be most accurate, it will be nice to have the players out on the diamond playing again.

Photo by Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

It is safe to say that the 2016 version of the Boston Red Sox were not built on a model of winning through run prevention. But, critically this group is better on the run prevention side of the game – relative to the league – than they were in each of the previous two seasons:

This year the Sox are basically a league average group in the runs allowed department. A factor in the improved run prevention is a much improved defense. Another table:

As is evident from the table, the defense is converting a higher percentage of balls in play into outs this season. As Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal points out, with Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young as the four primary outfielders, the Red Sox have a center fielder available for all three outfield spots.

It is not just the outfield where things are improved. Evan Drellich of The Boston Herald highlights how Dustin Pedroia is back on top at second base, Xander Bogaerts has been about the same, Travis Shaw/Aaron Hill have been a major upgrade on Pablo Sandoval at third base and Hanley Ramirez has been only slightly below average at first base.

Executing defensively is an often over-looked, but nevertheless important component of winning baseball. The Red Sox have been better defensively in 2016 than they were in the dismal 2015 and 2014 seasons. This has certainly contributed to their being at the top of the AL East standings, rather than the bottom.

While the defense has been better, it cannot overcome the issues that currently exist in the bullpen. By reliever DRA Red Sox relievers have been the 10th best group in baseball this season (3.98), but the month of August has been ugly. Matt Barnes, Fernado Abad, and Junichi Tazawa have performed their way out of high-leverage roles. Tazawa talked to Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Herald about his desire to earn his setup role back, but recognizes that he needs to be more consistent with his mechanics. The failings of those three, along with the increasingly unlikely return of Koji Uehara, leaves an opening for Joe Kelly – who is currently dominating at Pawtucket (1.34 RA9, 28/3 K/BB in 19.0 innings) – and Clay Buchholz to assume those ever-important high-leverage roles in front of Craig Kimbrel.

Buchholz talked to John Tomase of WEEI.com about his life as a reliever and how he had to think about the game in a slightly different way. Specifically, Buchholz noted that he needed to work on getting the feel for stranding inherited runners. Buchholz has pitched well in a relief role but he has also pitched better as a starter lately, which as Nick Cafardo notes, makes the decision on what to do with him difficult. Using Buchholz in a sort of “fireman” role where he enters games in important situations and throws multiple innings could work, so long as Buchholz, and perhaps even more importantly John Farrell, understands how that role works. Of course, all of this also depends on how well Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez perform over their next few starts.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the bullpen needs to be a strength over the remaining 30 games if the Red Sox are going to hold onto their playoff spot.

Quick Hits

The David Ortiz retirement tour continues to be a smashing success. Seemingly every night the big man moves past another Hall of Famer on a hitting category leaderboard. When he hit his 30^th home run of the season last week he become the oldest player in baseball history to have a 30-homer season. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe outlines the incredible final season Ortiz is putting together and suggests we bask in the presence of a player going out on top.

There are not many aspects of Mookie Betts’ game that are considered weak, but if there was one it would be his throwing arm. Yet, this past week Mookie flashed the results of two years of work on his throwing mechanics when he nailed Kevin Kiermaier at third base from deep foul territory in right field. Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal writes that while arm strength was always there, accuracy was Betts’ problem. Slowing things down helped with his accuracy. Now, as Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes, Betts’ arm is getting recognized as an asset, and in at least one instance changed the oft-used Andrew McCutchen comp to Roberto Clemente.

Lost among the natural turmoil of the baseball season is the fact that Pablo Sandoval is still a member of the Boston Red Sox. Sandoval was shut down for the season in April after revealing a left shoulder injury that required surgery. He joined the team in Tampa Bay last week and, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes, the results of Sandoval’s training regimen are clear, and the road back is looking good. Ideally Sandoval can put his disastrous first season in Boston and the tumultuous Spring Training this year in which he was fighting for his job behind him and get back to performing at a high level for the remainder of his tenure in Boston.

There are many stories of starting pitchers who behave differently on the days they start from the days when they are not scheduled to pitch. According to a story from Rob Bradford, for Rick Porcello the difference is Hulk-like, as Porcello changes from a mild-mannered guy on non-starting days to an angry, locked in competitor when he is starting. The story seems to suggest that Porcello’s fierceness on start days is (at least partly) responsible for his success this season. While that could be the case, it leads me to wonder if Porcello’s behavior was different last year, when he struggled, and if being with a new team had any effect on how he comported himself on start days.

The players at Pawtucket could soon be playing in a revamped McCoy Stadium. Janet Marie Smith, architect of the recent upgrading of Fenway Park, was at McCoy Stadium to throw out the first pitch as part of the team’s honoring “Women and Baseball”. Bill Koch of The Providence Journal details Janet Marie Smith’s nearly three decades around the game – including her leadership role in the development of Camden Yards and Baltimore’s Inner Harbor – and how Larry Lucchino likely seeking her guidance could play a role in Pawtucket’s future.

Three Good Game Stories

Last Friday night the Red Sox played their first game at home in almost two weeks and Steven Wright returned to the mound following a trip to the disabled list but the Red Sox lost 6-3 to the surging Royals. Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com has more on Wright’s return and the Red Sox’s offense failing to capitalize with runners in scoring position. The difficulty this team has had when hitting with the bases loaded is really weird.

David Price took the mound on Saturday and held the Royals to two runs over six innings while the offense rebounded from Friday night’s loss to score eight times. The win was great, but as Chris Mason of The Boston Herald writes, the story of the night was Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia had a chance to get a major league record 12^th consecutive hit in his plate appearance in the eighth inning, but grounded out. The comments from teammates on getting to watch Pedroia go for the record are great.

In the rubber match of the three game series, the Royals Royals’d the Red Sox to death in an eight run sixth inning. Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe details the failures of Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr. to clean up the mess Eduardo Rodriguez left for them in that disastrous sixth inning. Pitching, specifically relief pitching, continues to be the glaring limitation of this playoff-caliber team.

Photo by Mike DiNovo/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Back-to-back disappointing seasons will make any leader question their organization’s process. Red Sox principal owner John Henry did just that and revealed he felt the club had “perhaps overly relied on numbers” when making roster decisions of late. To those who still think jokes about Carmine – the Red Sox’s statistical database developed under Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington – are funny, Henry’s words likely rang true and signaled the beginning of a much needed change in philosophy. To those who appreciate what an analytical approach to the game can help bring (e.g., three World Series rings in ten years), the comments sounded like a search to assign blame and, perhaps, an over-reaction to last year’s disappointment. In any case, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes that the team is not retreating from statistical analysis. Rather it is actually committing more money to its analytics department but will incorporate a different approach in how that information is weighed when making decisions. That sounds like a perfectly reasonable approach and probably didn’t necessitate the media firestorm that resulted in the wake of Henry’s comments. Sure, Dave Dombrowski is known to prefer a greater emphasis on scouting and player development than on statistical analysis. That’s fine. But finding the ideal (and clearly elusive) balance between the two could lead to another prolonged period of success in Boston.

The second season of the hit show Find Hanley Ramirez a Defensive Position has started. This season Hanley tackles first base, though to some his move back to the infield arguably comes with more risk than his transition to left field in 2015. Dustin Pedroia reminded Hanley of just how important first base is in an ever so Pedroia way. Hanley has a lot to learn about the nuances of his new position, with limited time to do so. Regardless, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reports that the team is focusing on slow, simple, incremental progress. Red Sox third base and infield coach Brian Butterfield is the man in charge of transforming Hanley into a competent first baseman. The pace of Butterfield’s instruction has been planned with a keen awareness of the concerns over Ramirez’s health. Hanley is coming off a shoulder injury in 2015 that sapped his power at the plate, so the coaching staff is doing their best to avoid re-aggravating it. Despite these precautions, P.J. Wright of Boston.com writes that Pedroia is confident Hanley can make the transition to first base successfully. If he doesn’t the Red Sox have alternative options in Travis Shaw, prospect Sam Travis, and even (gasp!) Allen Craig, although fitting all the pieces of the puzzle together could prove difficult.

Quick Hits

On Monday, the Red Sox agreed to a minor-league contract with outfielder Daniel Murphy. As Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes, this is a smart signing that offers the team solid depth protection against any underperformance from Jackie Bradley Jr. and/or Rusney Castillo.

Hard-throwing, high-strikeout pitchers have been a hallmark of Dave Dombrowski’s previous teams. The additions of Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith and David Price ensure that the 2016 Red Sox will be no exception to this trend. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal spoke with each of these pitchers (and others) about the importance of velocity and about how correctly synchronizing pitchers’ body types with the mechanics of their deliveries helps maintain it.

Blake Swihart comes into Spring Training as the likely starting catcher, a considerable advancement on the depth chart from this time last year. This role requires him to take charge of the pitching staff, working as an on-field coach of sorts. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that Swihart had always done well with this aspect of his position in the minor leagues, but had difficulty with it following his early promotion to Boston last season. Swihart’s comfort grew over the course of last summer, and this spring he is in camp working hard and providing insight to his battery mates.

Swihart’s catching partner Christian Vazquez is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, making important steps forward as camp progresses. Last week, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com noted that the Red Sox were slowing Vazquez down in order to take the long, cautious path with his rehab. Then on Monday, Vazquez had an important throwing session that, as Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports, went really well. With this sort of continued, methodical progress, Vazquez could start seeing action in Grapefruit League games soon enough.

The 2016 season marks changes not only on the field and in the front office but also in the Red Sox broadcast booths. Dave O’Brien is moving from radio to join the television side, replacing fan-favorite Don Orsillo. Chad Finn, writing for The Boston Globe, spoke with O’Brien about the transition, reminding Red Sox fans that, despite Orsillo’s departure, they are still in good hands.

David Ortiz is embarking on his last trip through a major league season. Due to his star status, this final campaign will involve a farewell tour of some sort. The exact nature of the Big Papi celebration remains to be seen, but at Boston.com, Chad Finn hopes the farewell tour coincides with a victory tour. Ideally, Ortiz will ride a duckboat off into the proverbial sunset.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The acquisition of Ryan Hanigan last offseason, in exchange for oft-heralded post-prospect Will Middlebrooks, went largely unhyped. And rightfully so. Among players like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, Hanigan is not really the player who stands out. But it was a strong addition to the roster by then Red Sox GM Ben Cherington. Christian Vazquez was slated to be the everyday catcher while Hanigan would serve as a solid backup and veteran presence for the young starter. Then, in April, it was announced that Vazquez needed Tommy John Surgery and the 35-year old Hanigan was thrust into the starting role.

Like Vazquez, Hanigan is considered a first-rate defensive catcher (5.2 and 5.9 FRAA in 2013 and 2014, respectively) who does not provide a lot with the bat (career .257 TAv) but does get on-base (career OBP .352). After getting the starting nod throughout April, his season was altered when a foul-tip, hit-by-pitch oddball play sent a ball into his exposed throwing hand, fracturing it and sending him to the disabled list for the next month. That injury, coupled with the abysmal Red Sox performance, afforded Blake Swihart the opportunity to start in the big leagues. His general success, and the Red Sox place in the standings, kept him in the lineup, pushing Hanigan back to a backup role. Hanigan ended up playing in 54 games, getting 201 plate appearances, in which he was essentially replacement level (0.4 WARP). The forced advancement and success of Swihart – in Hanigan’s absence – and expected return of Christian Vazquez at some point midseason leave Hanigan’s place with the team in 2016 somewhat unclear. He will be on the roster to start the season given the uncertainties about Vazquez’s condition upon return, but, depending on the progress of the young catchers, Hanigan could find himself playing for somebody else before the end of the year.

What Went Right in 2015

Even though his playing time was limited by injury and the presence of a top prospect, Hanigan did the things he usually does well, well. Defensively, according to the suite of BP advanced catching statistics, Hanigan was an above average pitch framer, average blocker, and average run-game controller. Even after accounting for the reduced playing time his numbers were down relative to previous seasons – he has three 20+ run framing seasons on the books – but he was still productive relative to his backstop colleagues across the league. While there were suggestions that he had a positive effect on the starting pitching staff relative to his catcher teammates (Swihart, Sandy Leon), the basic numbers don’t really bear that out:

Those numbers are sad regardless of who was behind the plate. Hanigan defended his position well in 2015, but things are slipping as he ages.

On offense, Hanigan did Hanigan things. He worked plate appearances: among the players who stepped into the batter’s box at least 200 times for the Red Sox last season he had the second highest average of pitches seen per appearance, trailing some guy named Mike Napoli. Hanigan’s mark, 4.21, was actually 19^th best in baseball. This sort of patience allowed him to work walks at an above average rate (10.00 BB%) and wait for good pitches to hit. Despite having 304 fewer plate appearances, Hanigan had only five fewer walks than Pablo Sandoval last year. Granted Pablo is an extreme free swinger, but that difference is remarkable. Getting on base is Hanigan’s game and we saw it in 2015. His OBP was higher than average, coming primarily via the walk with the occasional punch of a single mixed in for good measure.

What Went Wrong in 2015

It is difficult to isolate what went wrong for Hanigan last season. The fractured hand was a rough deal, but in the end he was close to playing in as many games as was expected and performed remarkably close to expectations. For example, PECOTA’s pre-season projection for him was as a backup catcher (157 PA) with a .247/.340/.321 slashline (.255 TAv) and average defense, all packaged together for 0.4 WARP. That is almost exactly what he did: 201 PA, .247/.337/.328 (.242 TAv), 0.7 FRAA, 0.4 WARP. Nice job PECOTA! The injury (and related Swihart-ian circumstances) may have cost him an eventual starting role, but perhaps it ensured that he avoided wearing down under the increased workload related with being the primary catcher, ultimately leading to him performing worse than he did. Some good may have come with the bad.

I suppose we should talk about the .328 slugging percentage. While Hanigan’s SLG was in line with his projection, among fellas with at least 200 PA it was the lowest mark on the Red Sox, 36^th worst in the game, and just over half of the Bryce Harper show in 2015 (.649). Hanigan was one of only 11 players in baseball with at least 200 PA to post a slugging percentage lower than their on-base percentage; Hanigan’s difference of .009 was the ninth largest. This is something that he has done in four other major league seasons. As noted, Hanigan’s offensive game is OBP, not slugging. He is a patient, high-contact guy, but the contact is often lacking. It is possible that the hand injury exacerbated things in 2015, but his slugging percentage last year was not all that different from his 2012-2014 seasons. In the end he cranked out 10 extra base hits – eight doubles and two home runs – which included this beauty over the monster seats off reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber:

I suppose, realistically, the thing that went most wrong for Hanigan in 2015 was that his injury allowed Swihart an opportunity to play everyday in Boston, which served to hasten Swihart’s timetable for being a permanent major league contributor and potentially push Hanigan out of town.

Outlook for 2016

Hanigan is a veteran player from whom we more or less know what we are going to get: above average defense and good on-base skills. He will likely begin the season in a backup role to Swihart. As alluded to throughout this recap of his season, Hanigan’s role with the Red Sox going forward is most likely out of his hands. It depends on the development of Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez, or a trade involving one of the three of them. Hanigan is a serviceable contributor and experienced presence on the roster serving as necessary insurance while Vazquez works his way back to Boston. Unfortunately, Hanigan’s age and contract status ($3.7M for 2016, $3.75M club option for 2017) make him the likely odd man out of the bunch, unless Red Sox boss Dave Dombrowski is overwhelmed by an offer for one of the kids.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Despite his age of 28, Rusney Castillo should still be considered a member of the group of prospect-type Red Sox players for whom much uncertainty remains. The seven-year, $72.5 million contract he signed prior to the 2014 season inevitably led to high expectations, but Castillo is not likely to fill a role as a star, so those expectations need tempering. Rather the hope should be that Castillo will slot in as an everyday, above-average defender in the outfield and do enough with the bat to keep the bottom-third of the lineup moving. He is among the group of young outfielders, along with Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, who are expected to make another progression at the major league level this season; at the very least providing defense that could dramatically improve the run prevention side of Red Sox baseball. Castillo has a spot in the Opening Day lineup, but needs to show he can stay on the field and perform, or he will find himself with a permanent bench role while players like Chris Young or Brock Holt assume his starting job.

In two stints with the Red Sox in 2015 Castillo experienced the ups and downs typical of a player adapting to the rigors that come with life in the big leagues. He began the year at Pawtucket but was called to Boston at the end of May. This first run with the big league squad lasted only a month, as he was miserable at the plate, posting a .230/.260/.284 line (43 wRC+) in 77 plate appearances (PA). He struggled to command the strike zone, walking only three times and striking out 15 times – a ratio that is difficult to justify when paired with the absence of power Rusney showed during this stint (one double, one home run).

His next opportunity in the big leagues came after the Red Sox traded Shane Victorino to the Angels at the end of July, which created an opening for Rusney in the previously crowded Red Sox outfield. This second stint involved two oddly disparate months. In the first, Castillo met some of those high expectations that came with his contract. He played solid defense – other than that embarrassing in-game lapse —  – and showed real ability with the bat in his 102 trips to the plate, hitting .333/.366/.531 (142 wRC+). He still had an ugly walk to strikeout ratio (5:22), but his line included four home runs, two triples, and three doubles, so the poor plate discipline was playable. Then, from September 1 through the end of the season. Rusney’s performance cratered. He managed only a .194/.236/.252 line and a 27 wRC+ in 110 PA,) appearing to have reached a physical limit in dealing with the long season. It was a rough finish to a generally inconsistent season.

What Went Right in 2015

As I mentioned in my recap of Matt Barnes’ season, the value of gaining experience is often overlooked. But for players like Rusney Castillo, who is still adapting to life in the United States and learning first-hand the conditioning required to sustain performance across a big league season, it is imperative. Gaining close to 300 PA against major league-quality pitching, playing the outfield in multiple major league parks, and developing a better understanding of how (and when) to deploy his remarkable athletic ability on the basepaths should all benefit Castillo in 2016.   

Beyond experience, the best thing about Castillo’s 2015 season was undoubtedly his defense. While he struggled to a below-average performance at the plate (72 wRC+, .213 TAv), Castillo provided above-average defense in right field. According to FanGraphs’ UZR/150, among fielders with at least 350 innings at any position, his work in right field made him the eighth-best defender in baseball in 2015. Changing up the conditions a little bit to look only at outfielders with at least 600 innings (combined across left, center or right field), reveals that Rusney was the fifth-best outfielder in the game in 2015. For reference, Castillo’s 19.2 UZR/150 trailed his defensive-standout teammate Bradley Jr. (third best) by only three runs. To be clear, Rusney rated as above-average in the corners, where he spent the majority of his innings, but below-average in center. The sample of innings in center is far too small to make any bold statements, but the good news is that with Bradley Jr. and Betts on the roster, Castillo will be primarily called upon to play a corner spot in 2016. 

Rusney can run down flies and has an arm that should keep baserunners in check:

What Went Wrong in 2015

As I have noted, Castillo’s major issue last year was on offense, specifically struggling to control the strike zone. His .288 on-base percentage, over 30 points lower than league average, really jumps out as an area of concern. Earning bases on balls was not really in Rusney’s repertoire last year. Among the 311 hitters with at least 250 PA in 2015, Castillo’s walk-to-strikeout ratio of 0.24 ranked 48th-worst. There are only a few players at that end of the scale who performed at an above-average level on offense. Rusney’s inability to draw walks stems from his propensity to swing and miss. He took a hack at over half of the pitches he saw last year, which was well above the typical rate, but he made contact at a rate that was below average. That is an awkward combination to try and succeed with.

One thing that has interested me for a while is what how a pitcher attacks a hitter tells us about what the pitchers (and perhaps the league in general) think about the hitter. Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight (previously of Baseball Prospectus) introduced this idea. Ben Lindbergh (also previously of Baseball Prospectus) also wrote an article outlining this type of analysis. You can and should read their work, but the basic idea is that if pitchers attack a batter with a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and specifically close to the center of the zone, it suggests the pitchers think the batter is an easy out. Conversely, throwing away from the center of the zone suggests they are concerned with the batter’s ability to do damage.

Well, pitchers did not shy away from throwing pitches in the strike zone to Rusney last year. By PITCHf/x data, close to half (49.3%) of the pitches thrown to Rusney were in the strike zone, which was considerably higher than the typical rate for non-pitcher batters in 2015 (47.6). So it would seem that pitchers are telling us they felt Rusney was not all that much of a threat. Looking at his zone profile confirms pitchers were willing to attack Rusney within the zone, even frequently middle-middle, but they also exploited his free-swinging tendency with breaking pitches low-and-away. A more granular look at these data would provide more insight, but it does not look like pitchers were too worried about Castillo. He will need to improve his plate discipline if he is going to be a productive major leaguer beyond the defensive side of the game.

Finally, baserunning. It would be nice if in those few times when Rusney manages to get on-base he can also manage  not to run into an out. He was caught stealing in five of his nine attempts last year, which tied him for the second-worst success rate among hitters with 250 PA and nine attempts. The fact that Castillo and 33-year-old catcher Russell Martin attempted to steal the same number of times and were equally successful last year is not something I ever expected to write. Improving his decision-making on the bases should be another area of focus for Rusney heading into the 2016 season.

Outlook for 2016

His performance in 2015 makes projecting Castillo’s 2016 difficult, but he did play excellent defense and had stretches where he was more than capable at the plate. Sounds similar to Jackie Bradley Jr., no? Castillo’s durability remains a concern, but that is part of his ongoing adaptation to major league life and with Young and Holt on the roster, John Farrell can get Rusney the rest he needs to ensure he performs well throughout the year. When all is said and done, Castillo is most likely going to be a strong-glove, weak-bat, one- to two-win everyday player that will help the Red Sox compete for top spot in the division. If he and Bradley Jr. continue their defensive prowess but boost their offensive output even just a little bit this team could be really frightening. That may be asking a lot, but Castillo’s evolution will certainly be interesting to watch.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Suddenly this Red Sox team is fun to watch. This week they took two of three from the juggernaut Blue Jays, making them 13-7 in their last 20 games. Things are going so well for the Sox that Joe Kelly felt confident enough to stare down Joe Bautista after striking him out on Wednesday night. What an odd season it has been. Getting to consistently watch the Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. outfield is excellent, and even better now that JBJ does not look completely overmatched every time he steps in the batter’s box. In fact he has been a key contributor to an offense that has been the best in the American League over the last 30 days. This team was supposed to hit, it just took until August for it to really come together. Speaking of hitting, Hanley Ramirez is eligible to come off the disabled list tonight. This means that he could get an opportunity at first base this weekend, although at this point I think it is probably best to avoid adding more miles to his legs and keep his first base work to pre-game workouts. David Ortiz is two home runs shy of 500 regular season home runs, which is a mark only 26 other humans have accomplished. Given that the Sox are headed out on a nine-game road trip it seems unlikely that he will get the milestone in Fenway. Ortiz has hit well in Tropicana Field, despite it being a place that typically suppresses offense, so there is a good chance the milestone comes this weekend.

Tampa Bay Rays – Record (68 – 71) – Projected Record (80 – 82)

The Rays are a team built on run prevention, and while that has mostly lived up to expectation, injuries to several important players affected their fortunes. Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Desmond Jennings and Steven Souza Jr., all spent considerable time on the disabled list this season. Despite this, the Rays still manage to do a good job of preventing runs. They have allowed the third lowest total in the AL (543), 125 fewer than the Red Sox. As expected, their pitching (3.92/3.84/4.04 RA9/FIP/DRA) and defense (.717 defensive efficiency) have been tops in the league. Kevin Keirmaier alone makes their defense worth watching. He has produced 20.0 fielding runs above average in center field. The problem for the Rays has been scoring runs. They rank last in the AL and third last in all of baseball in runs scored with 534. Of the 14 players on the team that have accumulated at least 150 plate appearances, five have a sub-.300 on-base percentage, and Souza Jr. (.303) is one bad afternoon from falling below that threshold. It is really hard to pile up run totals when that large a proportion of your everyday lineup is making an out more than 70 percent of the time. Like the Red Sox the Rays are in look-to-next-year mode. In 2016 the run prevention could be even better, as they will have Alex Cobb back, a full season from Drew Smyly, ideally worked out what ails Matt Moore, and Desmond Jennings’ knee issue should be resolved, allowing him to patrol an outfield corner. If they can make an addition push or two to the offense to get it to even slightly above average, they will be a serious threat.

Probables:

Game 1: Wade Miley vs. Chris Archer, Friday, 7:10pm EDT

Wade Miley continues to be as advertised: an averagish pitcher who will eat innings. He has thrown almost 170 innings to date with an ERA- of 105 and FIP- of 94, so with a few good outings over the remaining few weeks he should be able to get into the 190-200 range and maybe get his ERA on the better side of average. He is coming off two strong outings that, while they were against the weaker offenses of the Mets and Phillies, are encouraging. Over 15 innings he struck out 14 and only walked one. Maintaining a ratio like that, or even half that, will help keep runs off the board. The Rays offense has been the third best in baseball hitting left-handed pitching (115 wRC+), so Miley will need to be in top form to hold them down.

In a season full of injuries to pitchers, Chris Archer has been constant for the Rays, and quietly put together a season worthy of Cy Young consideration. Archer ranks fourth in the American League by deserved run average wins above replacement player (DRA-WARP) with 4.80, behind only Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price. His RA9/FIP/DRA (3.31/2.72/2.86) stats are all better than his marks from last season, in which he was a top-15 starter. His 2015 numbers appear to show that Archer has made another jump in his young career, positioning himself at the front end of a potentially potent Rays rotation, and top-5 or -10 in the league. An interesting subplot is the history that Archer has in warring with Ortiz through the media, although the feud was kyboshed by Ortiz earlier this year. Nevertheless it would be somewhat interesting to see Ortiz get his 500^th dinger against Archer and batflip the hell out of it.

Game 2: Rick Porcello vs. Matt Moore, Saturday, 6:10pm EDT

How about this bright, shiny new Rick Porcello we have? Through his first 20 starts this season, Porcello was brutal, allowing more hits than innings pitched by a wide-margin (138 hits to 114.2 innings), giving up a lot of runs (6.06 RA9) and posting poor peripherals to boot (4.72 FIP; 3.4:1 strikeout to walk ratio). Since returning from the disabled list he has looked like the pitcher to whom the Red Sox thought they were giving a four-year deal. In his three starts he has a 2.82 RA9 (3.32 FIP), a sub-1 WHIP, and a 22/3 K/BB – although much of that is driven by his 13-strikeout, one-walk start against the Yankees. The reasons for Porcello’s dramatic improvement are many, but one thing that stands out is the rate at which he throws his sinker. In his pre-DL starts he was throwing his sinker and fourseamer in roughly equal proportions (~35%), but since returning he has thrown the sinker much more often (54%) than the fourseamer (15%). Along with this change in repertoire he is striking out more batters and getting more ground balls; two things he will need this weekend against the Rays who don’t strikeout a lot and tend to hit more fly balls than ground balls.

There was a time when Matt Moore was considered a front-line starter in the American League. After consecutive seasons of effective 150+ innings, his elbow broke after just ten innings pitched last season, requiring Tommy John Surgery. Since returning from the injury we have to wonder if he can stick in the major leagues. He has yet to throw more than five innings in a start, which could be part of a team-level plan, but it is not like they are removing him from quality outings; he has an 8.04 RA9 (5.35 FIP). The odd thing is that other than his much reduced strikeout rate – despite no appreciable decrease in velocity – there is not much about his numbers that is significantly out of line with career marks. But fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, and Moore has been unlucky with batting average on balls in play (BABIP) (.376 in 2015, .290 career), and has not been as effective as he was previously in stranding the runners he allows (61.6 LOB% in 2015, 74.4% career). The Red Sox strikeout at the third lowest rate in the game (17.8%), so they should pose a real problem for Moore in his new state.

Game 3: Rich Hill vs. Drew Smyly, Sunday, 1:10pm EDT

An earlier probable pitchers list had Eduardo Rodriguez starting on Saturday and Rick Porcello on Sunday. But the Red Sox are moving to a six man rotation and with Rodriguez already surpassing a career high in innings pitched on the season (152.2 innings between Pawtucket and Boston), the Red Sox will be limiting their 22-year-old stud the rest of the way. This means that 35-year old, New England native Rich Hill gets an opportunity. Hill has done a little bit of everything. He made 70 starts between the Cubs and Orioles from 2005 to 2009, then was used out of the bullpen by the Red Sox, Indians, Yankees, and Angels over the last five seasons with many minor league stints, and a Tommy John Surgery, coming along the way. This season at Pawtucket he made five starts (32.1 innings) and posted pretty good numbers (3.06 RA9, 3.59 FIP), striking out almost a batter per inning. Hopefully Hill can provide the Red Sox some length in his opportunities the rest of the way. His first major league start in six years brings a tough test as the Rays’ offense, as mentioned above, has hit left-handed pitching well.

The Red Sox will battle another promising young, left-handed starter who is working his way back from an arm injury on Sunday. Drew Smyly, the major piece of 2014’s deadline David Price deal, went on the disabled list in early May with a torn labrum. In his 47.2 innings with the Rays at the end of last season, Smyly was excellent, posting a 1.70 RA9 (3.07 FIP). Small sample, yes, but it must have helped assure the Rays of their new acquisition. Unfortunately, in a similar number of innings this year, things have not been as great, although still pretty good and the slightly worse performance is likely related to his shoulder injury. Smyly has a significant tendency for allowing fly balls, which works given the Rays’ excellent outfield, but fly balls can turn into home runs and he has had rough luck with allowing home runs at a higher rate this year. This weekend will be Smyly’s second outing against the Red Sox this year. In his last start before going on the disabled list in May, Smyly shut the Sox down for six innings, allowing only two hits and one run (a Mookie Betts solo bomb), while striking out six. The Sox won that game 2-0, but will ideally do more damage on offense this time around.

Opposing Lineup:

As noted, the Rays are a team built more around run prevention than run production. They have scored the third fewest runs in baseball (3.8 per game), ahead of only the Marlins and Braves. Evan Longoria is no longer the same force in the middle of the order he once was (135 wRC+ 2008-2013, 105 in 2014, 114 this year), and Steven Souza, who started the year strong (128 wRC+, 10 home runs in April/May), has significantly cooled off (68 wRC+, 5 home runs in June/July) and has been on the disabled list since August 2^nd. Manager Kevin Cash is effective in mixing and matching to get the most out of his players, but they are still limited.

With rosters expanding and the Rays’ penchant for using different players, the lineup is likely to look different from what is given above. John Jaso hits right-handed pitching well and struggles against lefties (career ~ .100 wOBA split) so I expect to see him on Sunday against Rick Porcello. Old friend Daniel Nava (.231/.367/.308 in 79 plate appearances with Tampa Bay) could start a game at first base or in right field. Lucky for the Red Sox, Rays team leader in wRC+ (min. 100 PA) Curt Casali is on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Alas, the backup catcher will be J.P. Arencibia, who has performed really well in his opportunities this year (.394 TAv in 30 PA).

Recap

A (newly) strong offense and defense against a consistently strong defense and weak offense should make for an interesting weekend. These teams have split their previous 12 games this season, but as noted things are a little different now for the Red Sox. The Sox have three of their better starters taking the mound in the series, and the resurgent offense should be capable of knocking the Rays starters around a bit.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

His .255/.305/.473 batting line might not look all that impressive, yet that comes with a .241 BABIP that is nearly 100 percentage points below his career norm. Considering Ramirez ranks eighth in all of baseball in batted ball velocity with an average of 92.1 mph, it’s clear he’s barreled up the ball consistently through the season’s first two months. Those willing to shift their gaze back to April, when Ramirez blasted 10 home runs, will be given a good reminder of just how formidable the outfielder’s bat can be.

Nevertheless, as a growing chorus of observers have noted, Ramirez’s offense has done little to hide how much he’s costing the Red Sox with his glove. Through April and May, the 31-year-old has been an outfielder in name only, and Boston is struggling to conceal just how poorly the slugger’s transition to left field is going.

By almost any measure, Ramirez has been the worst defensive player in baseball. Just going by Defensive Runs Saved, he’s already cost the Red Sox 11 runs on the season, which puts him on pace to give back over three wins of value with his glove alone.

As Alex Speier wrote in the Boston Globe on Wednesday, Baseball Reference’s Defensive WAR puts Ramirez on pace to cost Boston over four wins in the field by the end of 2015.

The defensive stats over at BP paint an equally grim picture, with Ramirez’s Fielding Runs Above Average ranking well below par. The same goes for UZR, which rates the 31-year-old as the game’s worst defender.

Placing complete faith in defensive metrics over a two-month sample is often foolish, but considering how poor Ramirez’s numbers are, it’s clear how bad he’s been in left field.

At this point, the biggest issue for the Red Sox is determining what to do about the situation. For the time being, they can wait and hope Ramirez improves as he further acclimates to being an outfielder. Even if he does get better, however, it’s hard to imagine Ramirez ever resembling anything near an adequate defender in left field.

That John Farrell reportedly called a meeting with five of the team’s veterans, in part, to address Ramirez’s effort level out in left isn’t exactly encouraging either. Given how much we know about Hanley’s woeful defense, you can be sure the Red Sox front office is well aware how costly his fielding has been to the club’s performance.

But Boston’s limited alternatives in terms of where to play Ramirez might be an even bigger issue, both this season and beyond. With David Ortiz at DH, the most obvious solution isn’t an option, though sitting Ortiz more against left-handed pitchers is an idea the Red Sox should explore.

A return to the infield doesn’t appear to be in the cards either. Ramirez has never been a good defender at shortstop, and given how good Xander Bogaerts looks in the field right now, the Red Sox would be borderline crazy to mess with his defensive development once again.

Third base would be an interesting option, yet Pablo Sandoval is pretty clearly the better fielder. Boston needs Sandoval’s bat in the lineup anyhow, even if he’s struggling at the moment.

The one switch that remotely seems possible is a move to first base for Ramirez. With Mike Napoli’s bat lagging and with Napoli in the final year of his contract, the Red Sox could look to trade him (or give him more of a bench role) and open up a spot in the infield.

For the time being, the Red Sox appear stuck with Ramirez in left field, and their best option is to hope he improves enough not to completely torpedo his overall value.

Still, that would require Ramirez to learn another new position in the middle of the season, which doesn’t exactly spark much reason for optimism. One assumes that would prove a little more difficult than simply handing Ramirez a first baseman’s mitt and hoping for the best.

For the time being, the Red Sox appear stuck with Ramirez in left field, and their best option is to hope he improves enough not to completely torpedo his overall value. They should try to give him as many opportunities at DH as possible, but that won’t be easy, especially if Ortiz starts hitting again.

Beyond this season, Boston will have to find a better solution for Ramirez in the field. With his 2016 option set to vest soon, Ortiz will be back again, meaning Hanley’s most likely landing spots are at first or third base.

In the present, though, the Red Sox will have to contend with the consequences of their roster construction. If the offense was performing as expected, many of these issues would be drawing far less scrutiny.

That hasn’t been the case, of course, which has brought far more attention to the club’s shortcomings. The pleas for patience are beginning to grow old, but that’s really all Ben Cherington and the Red Sox can do with both Ramirez’s defense and the team’s performance as a whole.

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