There are, as you might expect, many different ideas as to how the Red Sox might fill their DH spot. The most prominent of these has been to sign Edwin Encarnacion. Ortiz himself even endorsed this idea. Encarnacion is a fantastic hitter, but the combination of his age and contractual demands (money plus years) have made him a seemingly unlikely option. Similarly the Red Sox seem to have no interest (thank Jehovah) in paying dollars, years, and a first round draft pick for the right to put Jose Bautista in their lineup. There are other candidates as well, but all have one thing in common: they cost too much in some way. The Red Sox are reportedly interested in Carlos Beltran, another aged star, but so are the Yankees, Rangers, and a host of other teams, so much so that it seems likely Beltran could finagle a multi-year deal, effectively doubling the cost of writing his name on the lineup card. Were he a few years younger that’d might even be fine, but Beltran is baseball’s equivalent of Santa Claus: he’s jolly and he’ll bring presents, but he’s ridiculously old. 

So here’s the new idea, the one from two paragraphs ago. On Monday the Milwaukee Brewers non-tendered Chris Carter, meaning they have 10 days to trade him or he’s a free agent. If he reaches free agency, the Red Sox should sign him. That’s it. That’s the idea. It gets more interesting when you get into why though, so here’s why. Carter will be 30 next season and was set to earn $8.1 million in 2017, but now he won’t. Cutting him came as somewhat of a surprise, as Carter hit 41 homers in 2016. That’s tied for sixth in all of baseball with Nolan Arenado. Ahead of them are Mark Trumbo, Nelson Cruz, Encarnacion, Brian Dozier, and Khris (not Chris) Davis. That’s it. Behind him is every other player in baseball.

Beltran is baseball’s equivalent of Santa Claus: he’s jolly and he’ll bring presents, but he’s ridiculously old.

You wouldn’t think that guy would be cut loose, but Carter has his warts. There are a few reasons the Brewers decided he’s not worth their $8 million. One is they just signed Eric Thames, but if they thought Carter had value they wouldn’t DFA him, they’d trade him. So start by looking up Carter at Baseball Prospectus and you’ll see last season he was worth 0.8 WARP. That’s less than a single win above replacement. He got 644 plate appearances, hit 41 homers, and somehow would up worth less than a win. That must mean he’s pretty bad at everything else. And… sort of. 

Carter is pretty bad defensively. The Brewers played him mostly at first base, but being in the National League they didn’t have the luxury of putting him at DH. Our defensive stat, FRAA, hated Carter’s defense last season, rating him at -12.1. This lines up pretty well with other advanced defensive metrics, like those at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. And it’s not like this was a one season thing either. His defense is bad. So that’s one thing. 

Carter struck out 206 times last season, a number which led all of baseball. In fact, in all his seven seasons in the big leagues, Carter has three numbers in black ink on his baseball reference page (i.e. thrice he’s led baseball in something). Last season he played 160 games, the most in baseball (that’s good!), and twice he’s led baseball in strikeouts including last season. This isn’t a new thing either. Carter’s strikeout percentage has been in the 30s every year since he became a regular player except for once, when it was in the 40s. So Carter strikes out a lot. This also serves to hold down his batting average. We are in 2016 so this maybe doesn’t look as damning as it might were this 1986 or 1976, but even so a .220 batting average isn’t exactly a thing of beauty and most teams may not want to sign a guy who isn’t likely to hit more than .230 and may even hit around .200.

He’s a bad base runner. Our Baserunning Runs (BRR) thinks he’s a lousy baserunner, and so do other metrics. Last year wasn’t an outlier either. He’s been a negative baserunner in every season in his career by BRR. Once a player has been a bad baserunner that often, he’s very unlikely to improve vastly once he reaches age-30, which Carter has. Therefore he is a bad baserunner.

So, let’s pause and recap. Chris Carter has power, but is now entering his 30s, strikes out way too much, has a horrible batting average, is awful on defense, and can’t run the bases. Well I can hear you saying, “You’re right, Matt. I don’t know what the Red Sox are waiting for. Sign this guy right now.” And yes, Mrs. and Mr. Sarcasm, there are some warts here. But if there weren’t the Brewers would’ve paid him his arbitration money and you wouldn’t be reading this article because I wouldn’t have written it. Now that I’ve listed his warts, let me tell you why they shouldn’t matter to the Red Sox.

The Red Sox are looking for a DH and DHs don’t play defense, so you can throw out Carter’s defensive numbers because he won’t be needing them. In effect, Carter’s bad defense makes him ideal as a DH because those numbers only serve to hold down his value and thus his market. It’s good Carter isn’t a good defensive player!

Carter does strike out a ton and his batting average isn’t going to win any beauty contests. Neither is ideal, but what matters isn’t the strikeouts alone or even the Ks and the low average. What matters is the entirety of his offensive output. Last year Carter’s offensive output was good. He was the fourth-most valuable hitter on the Brewers by VORP. His offense last season was roughly equivalent to Dustin Pedroia or Sandy Leon. He was a good, not great, hitter. What’s more, on the Red Sox, a team with lots of runners on base, home runs (worth multiple runs) and strikeouts (i.e. not double plays) would play just fine. 

I fear I’m belaboring the point here, so let’s cut to it. Carter’s bat has value, and with their DH position wide open, the Red Sox are in a unique position to extract it. But what Carter also brings to the proverbial table is flexibility. The Red Sox don’t want to commit $100 million and five years to Encarnacion, they don’t want to sacrifice a draft pick to sign him or Bautista, and they don’t want to give a 40-year-old Beltran a multi-year contract. They have some money to spend but they want to reserve most of it for their young stars, and maybe for a splash on the 2018 free agent market. The Red Sox want a good hitter at DH, but most of all what the Red Sox want from their DH in 2017 is value. Carter offers value. He won’t cost much money, likely not more than the Brewers would have paid him in arbitration or they would have traded him. He won’t command a multi-year deal like the bigger names on the free agent market. He won’t cost them a draft pick, and acquiring him won’t require them to deal anything substantial from their dwindling reserves of minor league talent. 

Chris Carter’s 41 home runs look impressive, but look closer and he starts to look like an empty suit. And maybe for most teams he is exactly that. But the Red Sox have different needs than most teams, and for them Chris Carter’s skills play up and his deficiencies fade to the back. He’s a chance to avoid the free agent market, a chance to keep their draft pick, a chance to keep their prospects or at least use them elsewhere, a chance to do all those things and still get some decent production from the DH spot in the lineup. He can help them win in 2017 without sacrificing value in later seasons. Carter isn’t the best player available, but considering the whole picture, for the Red Sox he might be the best fit.

Photo by Tim Heltman/USA Today Sports Images

We are in the prime time of predictions, as evidenced by our ongoing Offseason Oracle series here at BP Boston. For the most part, we can assume a lot of these predictions will be wrong. That’s just how it goes. On the Red Sox front, there is a predictably sizable amount of speculation over the team’s aggressiveness, both in the trade market and free agency.

Among the candidates for major awards, of course, are Mookie Betts and Rick Porcello. We know now that Porcello was able to walk away with his award, but what about Mookie? Let’s dive in on the diminutive outfielder.

We know that Mookie is one of three AL finalists for MVP, along with Jose Altuve and Mike Trout. Betts has already taken home a Silver Slugger to go with a Gold Glove and approximately 58 other miscellaneous awards I didn’t know to exist. As the best AL player to play in the postseason, Betts has a very solid chance to win the award. Bob Nightengale at USA Today wrote this feature advocating for Mookie to win, and Bleacher Report published a long profile on the young outfielder as well. The trouble with the MVP award in the American League, as has been the case for a number of years, is that Mike Trout plays like Mickey Mantle, and does so for a bad team.

Trout, objectively and statistically, was better at baseball in 2016 than was Betts. Baseball Prospectus’ WARP pegged Mookie as about a seven-win player this season, to Trout’s 8.7. The Angels outfielder posted a .355 TAv, outpacing Betts’ .296. Trout had a major-league-best wRC+ of 171, and trailed only David Ortiz with a .991 OPS.

All of this is not to say that Mookie Betts should not win; I sincerely hope he does, and I happen to hold the analytically sacrilegious belief that players on teams that suck shouldn’t win MVP. The last thing I want to do is re-litigate the impossibly annoying debate of what the word “valuable” really means.

In the context of Betts as an MVP candidate, Alex Speier of the Globe wrote a piece Tuesday about what an extension for Betts would look like, and the merits to signing one with years of team control still remaining on his contract. Speier hazards the guess, with the input of league executives at the GM meetings in Arizona, that a deal could be in the ballpark of $150 million over seven or eight years. One easy comparison is the deal Trout got in 2014, worth $144 million over six years. I firmly lie in the it’s-not-my-money camp regarding early extensions: I’d be heartbroken to see Betts (or, for that matter, Xander Bogaerts) in another uniform if a deal can’t be worked out before free agency.

While not entirely related to awards and contracts, reading about the terrific start to Mookie’s career reminded me of the hype and excitement that followed Betts into Spring Training in 2015. Remember that? Shane Victorino compared him to Andrew McCutchen, and Ortiz was even more effusive in his praise, saying “he’s better than McCutchen at that time in McCutchen’s career. Go and double-check that.”

As an optimist and a Sox fan, I was excited but remained skeptical. Coming into 2015, Cutch had been a top-three finisher for NL MVP in three consecutive years. We were really comparing Mookie to that guy? Already? It turned out they were correct.

In McCutchen’s first four seasons at the big-league level, he totaled 18.8 bWAR. In more than 200 fewer games and with almost 1000 fewer plate appearances than McCutchen’s four campaigns, Betts has amassed 17.6 bWAR in just two-and-a-half seasons.

In McCutchen’s MVP season of 2013, he slashed .317/.404/.508 while belting 21 homers, driving in 84 and swiping 27 bags. Mookie’s line this season was .318/.363/.534 with 31 home runs, 113 RBIs and 26 steals. Mookie’s bWAR in 2016 was 9.6, while McCutchen’s in 2013 was 8.1.

Mookie Betts, at age 23, was better in 2016 than Andrew McCutchen has ever been.

Hopefully this provides some perspective regardless of who wins MVP later this week. Mookie Betts is an incredible baseball player, and in all likelihood will continue to be for a long time.

Quick Hits

Porcello, stacked up against Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander, was a finalist for AL Cy Young, and we found out lat night that he did indeed earn the honor. Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post correctly predicted that Porcello will win the award, but argued that Verlander was most deserving. He argues that Verlander was more dominant, leading the league in both strikeouts and strikeouts per nine, than was Porcello, despite Porcello’s league-leading 22 wins. It almost seems too obvious to point out that – here, I’ll do it in all caps – PITCHING WINS ARE NOT AN EFFECTIVE STATISTIC. A case could be made that Porcello deserved to win the award anyway, thanks in large part to his majestic 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. What also worked in his favor, largely unfairly, is the fact that Boston made the postseason while Detroit did not.

Stan Grossfeld in the Globe wrote about the personal development of Michael Kopech. After a rough stretch that included a 50-game ban for a forbidden stimulant and then broke a bone in his pitching hand in an altercation with a teammate in March of 2016. Upon returning, Kopech torched the competition at Lowell and High-A Salem, posting a 4-1 record and 2.08 ERA and was named the Carolina League Player of the Month in August. You can read me fawn over Kopech’s fastball, performance and magnificent hair here.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports that the Red Sox haven’t made the signing of Edwin Encarnacion a top priority, and argues that they might want to rethink the strategy. However, because Encarnacion declined the $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Jays, any other team that signs the slugger would have to forfeit their first-round pick next year. For the Sox, that would mean the 26th overall selection.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?:

“Wheel of Fortune” is a living dinosaur at this point, but it remains the source of one of my favorite analogies. For years, the contestants negotiating the final puzzle got to choose five consonants and one vowel before having to 30 seconds to guess the answer; for years, they chose R, S, T, L, N and E a huge percentage of the time. Eventually, those six letters were automatically gifted to each contestant, who instead got to choose three consonants and another vowel on top of those.

Answering this question feels a little like choosing the final four letters. Every one of us in this thought exercise tackled the Edwin Encarnacion angle pretty early in our columns because it’s the simplest answer to the question. It’s also probably wrong, but understandably tempting. Replacing Ortiz’s 2016 offensive production seems unlikely, but if Encarnacion — or anyone — can provide 85 percent of it while playing the field, that could go a long way toward filling up the box score like Papi did. It did not escape me that this question asked specifically about replacing “David Ortiz’s production” rather than “replacing David Ortiz,” as the latter is obviously impossible, but insofar as Ortiz was larger than life, it’s tempting to look to someone like Encarnacion to fill the bill. It’s probably the wrong way to look.

If you take Dave Dombrowski at his word, though, per a recent Alex Speier piece, the Sox might look instead to improve incrementally across the board while waiting for Yoan Moncada, Sam Travis and even, yes, Pablo Sandoval to emerge/return, rather than making a splash on the Encarnacion-ian level, but Dombo could also just be negotiating through the press at this point. However it shakes out, the Sox’s strong core plus Moncada is a wonderful starting point. There’s not as much work to do as we might think. As Matthew Kory wrote, Carlos Beltran might be the perfect piece to complement the roster as-is, without forcing the Sox to break the bank, and apparently they covet him.

I also think Ben Carsley’s idea of a Todd Frazier trade makes a huge amount of sense, but I’ll add another name to the list: Miguel Cabrera. Maybe Dombo isn’t set up to work well with his former employer, but if he is, and could get the apparently extremely available Miggy in a package that kept Moncada in Boston, it would be a certified coup. Cabrera’s getting on in years, but he’s still friggin’ incredible, and Dombo knows it as well as anyone.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:

Carsley’s proposed White Sox trade would also net the Sox Nate Jones, and while that seems perfectly reasonable, so do a lot of bullpen ideas that would be easier to pull off. The straightest-line plays would be for the Sox to sign Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon; my money would be on the latter, because it would be so much less of the Red Sox’s money.

I don’t see Brad Ziegler returning, but with Carson Smith waiting in the wings, I think Dombo continues to go the supplementary rather than foundational route in shoring up the ‘pen. Matt Collins, who thinks more about Red Sox relievers before noon on New Year’s Day than the rest of us do all year, says Neftali Feliz could be in the mix, and that sounds right. Chris Teeter thinks Brett Cecil could be a target, and given the Sox’s disproportionate dependence on Robbie Ross Jr. last year, another lefty would be a good addition, no matter how good Smith’s reverse splits have been.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?:

I doubt it. They have David Price, Steven Wright, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez set to return. They technically don’t need another starter, but if they don’t break the bank for Encarnacion (or, you know, whoever), I, like everyone else, could see the appeal of re-signing a, or the, Rich Hill, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Of course, then there’s Chris Sale, Dombo’s white whale. Circumstantially, a Sale/Moncada et al. trade has never been likelier. The White Sox need help, Sale has been a pain in their butts, Moncada is a sure thing, Dombo likes trading prospects for bona fide superstars, and it’s not the middle of a productive season. Furthermore, Sale’s value might not be lower anytime soon — he wasn’t one of the three finalists for the AL Cy Young Award, even if he’s probably the AL starter you’d most likely pick in a win-or-go-home game. It’s all right there in front of us, but it just seems too obvious. I’m much more of Carsley’s opinion that Frazier would net a better return from the South Side in the short- and long-terms.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?:  

Even independent of a potential Sale deal, I’d say: Probably. It’s Dombo’s calling card, and he’s been given a fat stack of prospects with which to work. If not a White Sox, how about Paul Goldschmidt? That was Chris Teeter’s take, and why not? Goldy is pretty dope, and the Sox have newly minted front-office connections in Phoenix to exploit. I guess my fear on that account is that it would seem a bit *on the nose* for them to turn around and deal one of the 10 best players in baseball to their former employers, even if it might, in theory, benefit the D-Backs in the long-run. The optics are probably just too bad to make it a possibility about which I’d worry too much.

I’m in on Jake Devereaux’s Joey Votto-ought-to-be-available theory, but I fear Votto isn’t really going anywhere. Dealing Votto might be the rational move for a franchise stuck in a rut, but if the franchise was all that rational in their decision-making they wouldn’t have gotten stuck in that rut in the first place. Votto hit approximately 1.200 in the second half, which is so good it’s impossible, and it makes it harder to trade him for a franchise short on star power. Plus, I’d rather have Goldie anyway. I just don’t see that happening. 

Something will, though, and if it’s not Frazier I think it’s more likely to be a different good player in a crappy situation rather than a superstar we’ve thought of. If a move is likely, I think it would be for Frazier or Cabrera (or even Verlander, just to increase my chances of getting one right), and I think the prospects in any such deal would be good enough to trigger answering “yes” to this question. Even if the chances of such a deal are only like 1 in 3, .333 is pretty good in baseball, as we well know.

Miscellaneous thoughts

So much of this exercise feels less like trying to figure out what will happen than it does trying to stake out our turf for the future. Between the lot of us, we’ve staked out a lot of it, but much like the robots in Westworld that [SPOILER] literally can’t see a door in front of the if they’re programmed not to see it, we may just not have the privileges to see what’s really going on.  And, like those robots, the more I see that expands of my field of vision, the more secret doors that actually open, the more I’ll be coming online.

Biggest Acquisition: Miguel Cabrera
Biggest Departure: Jackie Bradley Jr. (via trade)
Biggest Surprise: The Sox don’t even kick the tires on Edwin

Lineup

Photo by Brett Davis/USA Today Sports Images

We’re doing Red Sox offseason predictions all week long so and I’m thrilled to be going first. The early bird gets the most angry comments. We’re tackling some of the bigger questions that the Red Sox face in an offseason that people seem to be split on what to expect. Let’s get to it:

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?:

I spent a fair amount of time trying to be cute and Billy Beane my way into an answer that was clever and cost-efficient, and it just proved to be a waste of time. It’s going to be Edwin Encarnación. He’s always seemed like the most obvious replacement, and this just doesn’t seem like a move that the team will risk overthinking. Shouts to Hanley Ramirez for learning to play first base and giving the team the flexibility to take a chance on getting a few more good years out of Encarnacion, if that’s the direction they want to take. The Very Fun Paul Goldschmidt Rumors have been just that, but this has and will continue to feel like Encarnacion’s job to lose. Additionally, Yoan Moncada shouldn’t strike out in every single major league at bat next season so that should also help.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:

Bullpens are going to be ALL the rage next season. Carson Smith is going to be on your TV a lot next summer. Presuming that he’s on track to recover from Tommy John surgery, getting Smith back will be more than likely the biggest addition to the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel ruined my nail beds on more than one occasion last season, but he’s still Craig Kimbrel, so the team has a closer. It’s easy to see the team trying to go for that second late-inning power arm, but *lots of Red Sox fans shudder* Joe Kelly showed some promise in that role at the end of last year. I suspect the team comes into spring training looking to build internally before being more active at the trading deadline.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?:

The last two answers have been relatively boring, so I’ll go out and predict something I’ve been too scared to openly say because Twitter Ridicule frightens me: I think this is where the team makes a surprisingly large move. I think the team expects a little better from Price and a little worse from Porcello, which basically puts them right where they were last season. The team got reliable pitching from the rotation for most of the second half of the season, but when you have the means to make a good rotation great, why not? Dave Dombrowski’s love of big trades is well documented and the team presumably didn’t bring him in to hoard prospects. I think Dombrowski revisits a trade for Jose Quintana or Carlos Carrasco, which leads me to…

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?:

They sure will! Mauricio Dubon and Michael Kopech both had big showings in the Arizona Fall League, which is just exceptional timing considering the MLB Winter Meetings are only a few weeks away. I think a trade involving Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley Jr and two of Devers/Kopech/Groome/Dubon are going to Chicago or Cleveland. We’ll just say for the purpose of the exercise that they go to Chicago for Quintana.

The interesting aspect to this comes when you consider the fact that the Red Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball this season. By Runs Scored they were first by a lot. They were also first in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Most total offensive metrics had them first or second as well, though our TAv had them sixth (no, I can’t explain it). The point is, the Red Sox won a lot of games in 2016 and many, especially in the first half of the season, were due to the overpowering nature of their offense. Ortiz’s loss in the clubhouse can’t be replaced, but while he was magnificent on the field, authoring maybe the best season ever by a 40-year-old, the raw numbers and production can be.

The largest portion of the replacement may come from the free-agent market where there is actually a healthy number of options to directly fill Ortiz’s position. Players like Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran or Jose Bautista could replicate some decent-to-large percentage of what Ortiz did this season. Team President Dave Dombrowski hasn’t indicated whether he will look to add someone from that pool of players, but whether he does or not, it likely won’t fill the hole entirely. That’s because finding someone to step in and hit .315/.401/.620 as Ortiz did this season is a difficult proposition. Perhaps the Red Sox will acquire Freddie Freeman from the Braves or Joey Votto from the Reds, but outside of a huge addition like that, the trick will be to make incremental improvements across the lineup. The Red Sox will explore all avenues of improvement but the plan likely isn’t to add one big player and expect him to replace Ortiz one-for-one. Instead, they’ll need to get small bits from everybody in the lineup and with each step or half-step forward the loss of Ortiz is slightly lessened.

We’re talking about the highest scoring offense in baseball here, so improvement will be difficult, right? Is Mookie Betts going to hit better than a .900 OPS with 31 homers? Is Sandy Leon really going to reach .310/.369/.476 again, let alone best it? Well, no, probably not. I don’t count Mookie Betts out of anything, but it’s hard to see him doing better next season. However, that does bring up an interesting point, which is this: Betts is 23. He’ll be 24 next season. The Red Sox feature a number of important players in that age range, including Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart, who figures to play a more significant role in 2017. Players in their early and mid-20s are typically candidates to improve, simply based on normal aging patterns. It’s not outlandish to think Betts could improve his on-base next season as pitchers stop challenging him inside the strike zone. In fact, if you look at Betts’ monthly splits, you can see that kind of thing happening. Betts got off to a rough start in April with a .298 OBP, and put up .348 and .331 numbers in May and June. In July he kicked it up to .415 and August was virtually the same at .414. September saw a .373 OBP, so you could see some improvement there as Betts was forced to become more selective due to pitchers’ fears of getting burned. Maybe the homers aren’t quite there next season but the OBP more than makes up for it and there is some of Ortiz’s value.

Jackie Bradley did his all-or-nothing act again in 2016, going from being the best hitter in the game to the player who lost his major league roster spot in 2014. Some consistency in between scorching hot stretches would push Bradley into the upper echelon of hitters as well as hold on to a bit of Ortiz’s production. There are numerous other possibilities as well. Andrew Benintendi should get a full season in left field which will help. Can Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia get even a little bit better? I’m skeptical but maybe.

A bigger and more easily gained improvement is available at third base as 2016 was yet another season the Red Sox production from third was awful. That figures to change in the next few seasons as Yoan Moncada and/or Rafael Devers make their way(s) to Boston, but for now the team seems to be stuck with Travis Shaw. Perhaps Moncada makes the leap next season and provides the spark he was unable to give this season, but there’s a more likely long shot here and that is Pablo Sandoval.

Sandoval missed virtually the entire 2016 campaign after shoulder surgery, but he’s been a better-than-league average hitter in every season but his first in Boston in 2015. It’s not unreasonable to think that after a year off he can come back healthy, which he presumably wasn’t before, and in good shape (relatively speaking). Simply achieving league average would be an improvement over the low bar the team set at third base in 2016.

Other than a Sandoval reinvention, the Red Sox’s best hopes for offensive improvement probably lie with Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts has ticked up offensively each season he’s spent in the majors, but each season has also come with significant down periods. In 2016, Bogaerts fell apart towards the end of the year, highlighted by an especially difficult August. Even so, an .802 OPS from shortstop is quite good, but with Bogaerts’ obvious talent, it’s not crazy to say there is another gear in there somewhere, one with more power, more consistency, and better on-base ability. If there’s a player who can take a significant step forward in 2017 on the Red Sox roster and in doing so take a huge chunk out of the heap of productivity the Red Sox are losing through David Ortiz’s retirement, it’s Bogaerts.

Taken individually, each of these along with others are good, but taken together, the Red Sox can offset the loss of Ortiz to some large degree. Of course, forecasting improvement across the board is a dicey proposition. Typically some players improve while others, maybe some you don’t see coming, fall down. For the Red Sox to withstand losing David Ortiz and maintain their title as the best hitting team in baseball, they’re going to need Bradley, Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Andrew Benintendi as well as others to improve. Given the ages and talents of the players involved it’s probably less pie-in-the-sky than you might think.

Or they could just go out and trade for Mike Trout. Either way, really.

Photo by Mike Dinovo/USA Today Sports Images

With this in mind I have put together a list of free agent hitters that check a lot of the boxes that the Red Sox are trying to fill in a post Ortiz world. The replacement(s) will need to hit right-handed pitching extremely well and presumably be a power bat. Considering that the remainder of the Red Sox positions are well set for next season, the addition will likely be someone who can slot in at the DH spot, first base, or rotate in the outfield or at third base.  With Sandoval’s bat returning to the lineup in some capacity the need for that bat to be left-handed is not a hard-and-fast rule. Here is the best fits of the available options:

The Old Expensive Sluggers

Edwin Encarnacion: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-34, Draft Pick Loss:-Yes

Often talked about as a replacement for Ortiz, initially because Ortiz mentioned him, Encarnacion brings power to the table in spades coming off a season where he hit 42 home runs, tying a career high. The consensus is that even at 34 years old to start the 2017 season, the Dominican power hitter will command a deal of at least four years and upwards of $100 million. The price is substantial but he can do the best out of any option to replace Ortiz’s production on his own.  Last year Ortiz posted a TAv of .317, which was one of the better marks in all of baseball. Encarnacion had a mark of .291 and PECOTA projects .281 for 2017.  

Despite being a right-handed bat Encarnacion has mashed right-handed pitching, slashing .268/.349/.532 with 33 home runs with a TAv of .290.  He was even better against left-handed pitching with a TAv of .294. This guy is the total package and can rotate between DH and 1B with Ramirez. Encarnacion is not a great fielder, but FRAA has him ranked as a substantially better first baseman than Ramirez at -2.9 vs. -10.5.  Encarnacion is the most expensive but best solution even, if he limits Boston’s flexibility with rotating players at DH. It does not come without risk, since last year marked his lowest contact and z-contact percentage of his career, marks that have been falling since 2013.

Jose Bautista: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-36, Draft Pick Loss:-Yes

This is an interesting option, but one that is difficult to envision without the Red Sox moving on from one of their outfielders via a trade. Bautista has not graded out as a positive defender in right field over the last two seasons but he is still adequate enough to warrant a full-time job in the field for some club.  Last season’s .270 TAv was his lowest since his pre-breakout season in 2009 but PECOTA likes him for a strong bounce back in 2017 with a projected mark of .305.

While I don’t love this option due to his advanced age and high cost, Bautista is not without his strengths.  He can play right field, which makes left field at Fenway a possibility as he ages, and he has also seen time at first base over his career should he lose more mobility.  Bautista’s bat has also never shown any platoon splits.  It does remain to be seen whether or not his dip in performance this year is due to father time or just a down year but I wouldn’t want to take that risk for someone who will command a very high pay day.  

Old Guys on Short Deals

Matt Holliday: Bats-Right, Age for 2017 Season-37, Draft Pick Loss:-No

This is a very intriguing option made available by the Cardinals choosing to buy out the last year on his deal worth $17 million rather than hang onto the aging slugger.  Since they declined the option, which was lower than the $17.2 million qualifying offer set for 2017, the Red Sox would not need to give up a draft pick to sign Holliday. Holliday will likely be limited to American League teams due to his extremely limited fielding, but he could play LF of 1B for his new team as long as it was in a limited role.  

Holliday isn’t what he used to be but his TAv of .279 in limited time last year proves he is still very useful.  One of the better hitters of his generation, Holliday has never shown any platoon splits, and he crushes right-handed pitching.  This bat, coupled with his flexibility and the fact that he likely won’t command more than a two-year deal, make him very attractive.  PECOTA has him pegged for a nearly identical TAv of .282.  If he is willing to come to Boston this is a very attractive option for the team and the player.  His swing seems tailor-made for pounding the green monster.

Carlos Beltran: Bats-Switch, Age for 2017 Season-40, Draft Pick Loss:-No

Here’s a bold idea; replace one 40-year-old future Hall-of-Famer with another. What could go wrong? After all, Beltran mostly does bat from the left side and has been great in his career vs LHP. Last year though, he was much better against lefties than righties and he had a fairly substantial drop-off in slugging percentage in the second half.  For his career, however, he has been substantially better vs RHP. Given his age and lack of mobility Beltran played more than half the season at DH and would likely do so again. He does, however, have the ability to play both RF and LF and he had a very respectable TAv of .279 last season.  PECOTA projects him to have a massive drop-off in 2017 all the way down to a TAv of .244.  The Sox can probably do better than this.  

The Other Guys

Josh Reddick: Bats-Lefty, Age for 2017 Season-30, Draft Pick Loss:-No

Hey, we know this guy! Drafted by the Sox in 2006 and there until the end of 2011, Reddick is a familiar face, and one that the team would benefit from having back. Ryan Sweeney and Andrew Bailey didn’t work out so well and since that terrible trade, Reddick has enjoyed his four best seasons. If you want a righty-masher then Reddick is your guy with a TAv of .317 against them last year. He is rather pathetic against LHP, though, so a platoon partner would be ideal.  If the Sox were to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. to the White Sox in a deal for Chris Sale, for example, this would represent an ideal player to pair with Chris Young in LF.  

Reddick’s stats all show he is entering his prime as a hitter and he posted a respectable .277 TAv last year with PECOTA projecting a mark of .266 for next. Reddick also rated as the 7th best RF in baseball by FRAA so defense would not be an issue.  This may be the type of player better suited to be signed alongside another name on this list and only acquired if an outfield spot is vacated. The Dodgers know his value and have plenty of money to spend. He will not be easy to sign nor will he be cheap,  and because of the mid-season trade from Oakland to LA he does not have any compensation attached to him.

Steve Pearce: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-34, Draft Pick Loss:-No

A familiar foe, Pearce has plied his trade with both Baltimore and Tampa Bay in recent years so Sox fans know what he can do. Pearce provides the ultimate in flexibility, just like Brock Holt, and has played nearly every position on the diamond over the last three seasons. His bat is also vastly underrated.  In a part-time role last season his .310 TAv was closest on this list to the .317 of Ortiz. He hits both right- and left-handed pitching well and could rotate anywhere John Farrell needs him. Pearce is 34 and coming off elbow surgery so he is by no means a perfect solution.  PECOTA is also skeptical he can keep up the success predicting a TAv of .251 for next year.  There is no doubt he can help the team but might be best signed alongside another player on this list.  

Conclusion

Encarnacion remains the best option for replacing Ortiz but the job can certainly be done in another way.  If a trade can be made with the White Sox then I favor signing Reddick and Pearce and running a platoon in left while also rotating Pearce at DH and around the field with Sandoval, Shaw, and Ramirez. I ruled out Mike Napoli, Mitch Moreland, Mark Trumbo, Ian Desmond, Michael Saunders, and Kendrys Morales because their skills didn’t fit the needs of this team as well as the six players above. However, those players do remain options that the team may explore.      

Photo by Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports Images

But after a week of reflecting and reminiscing, it’s time we look ahead to 2017. The Sox’s season was an overall success, winning the AL East after two straight last-place finishes. And the young core leaves few holes in the roster entering the offseason. That doesn’t mean there aren’t questions to be answered, however. Boston is a division-series bouncer that had its flaws exposed in the playoffs, and there are uncertainties at multiple positions. Dave Dombrowski, Mike Hazen’s replacement and friends now have to put together a roster primed to repeat as AL East champs and make a real playoff run.

What exactly should the Red Sox do? They don’t pay me to know those answers. But there are five questions that will need addressing before Opening Day.

1.) How do they handle their pitching staff?

Pitching was an issue that surfaced and resurfaced throughout the season and carried into the playoffs. First it was the starting rotation and then it was the bullpen through most of July and August. By September, the Red Sox figured it out and finished the year with the sixth-ranked team DRA (4.00). That’s great given where they were as a staff most of the year.

However, top starters Rick Porcello and David Price both struggled in the playoffs, continuing their respective runs of winlessness in October. Clay Buchholz was ok in Game 3. Ditto for Drew Pomeranz out of the bullpen in his Game 1 and 3 appearances. The bullpen, meanwhile, was among the best in the majors in September and remained reliable in the playoffs, as it allowed just two runs (by Pomeranz) over three games.

The Red Sox have all of their starters under contract for next season except for Buchholz, who has a team option for 2017 (we’ll discuss that more later on). They could bring back the same starting rotation and probably contend once again, especially if it looks more like the second-half version than the early season one. However, the starters’ postseason performance may incline management to pursue other options, such as pulling off a major blockbuster for a Chris Sale-like ace or tapping into the weak free-agent pitching market and signing a Doug Fister or Rich Hill type of player.

Next year’s bullpen may look a little different. Junichi Tazawa is probably gone, Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad are also pending free agents and there’s no telling what will happen with Koji Uehara. A healthy Carson Smith will upgrade a pen headlined by Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes. The only pending free agent the Sox will likely try bringing back is Ziegler. There are some notable names entering free agency this winter, including Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney, among others. One of those names could be on Boston’s radar as well.

2.) Who’s their starting third baseman?

The Red Sox made the right decision starting Travis Shaw at third base over Pablo Sandoval to start the season. Shaw was arguably the team’s worst hitter last season, finishing the year with a .246 TAv and 1.6 WARP as he didn’t start a playoff game. However, it was still an upgrade over Sandoval’s .229 TAv and -1.4 WARP in 2015.

The question now is who will get the job at third next season. Right now it looks to be between Shaw, Sandoval and Brock Holt, who started at third in the playoffs and slashed .400/.400/.800 over three games. The Sox could certainly use an upgrade, but will that come from the outside or within?

Odds are it will be the latter. Shaw proved productive enough thanks to all of the offense in front of him. Sandoval’s past success, and apparent weight loss, gives hope that he’s finally ready to turn things around. If none of that works, Holt is available to hold things down until Yoan Moncada is ready to take over. Your guess is as good as mine who will win the job.

3. What do they do with Clay Buchholz?

This is the second straight season the Red Sox have had to answer this question. Last year seemed like more of a no-brainer. Buchholz posted a 3.00 DRA in 2015 before suffering a season-ending injury, and the Sox were desperate for starting pitching. The only question was his durability.

This year, Buchholz’s issue wasn’t health. It was poor performance for most of the season. The right-hander owned a 5.79 ERA through his first 23 appearances. At that point it was a decent bet he’d be gone this offseason. However, his 3.02 ERA in August and September makes it more of a toss-up, if not more likely the Red Sox pick up his $13.5 million option. Price, Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Pomeranz would make for a solid starting rotation. But last season proved the importance of starting pitching depth as various injuries forced Buchholz back into the rotation multiple times.

Essentially, the Red Sox either let Buchholz walk and stick to the five they have or find depth by acquiring another starter and perhaps move Pomeranz to the bullpen. Or, they can bring Buchholz back for an affordable price and give this group another shot next year.

4.) How do they replace David Ortiz?

There’s no replacing Big Papi. However, the Red Sox do need to decide what to do at designated hitter next season. Ortiz was a known commodity for over a decade, and last season he was one of the two best hitters on the highest-scoring offense in the majors. His absence leaves the Red Sox with a major hole in their lineup.

At one point, Hanley Ramirez looked like the heir apparent at DH. Last year he proved to be a pretty good first baseman who will likely remain in that spot next season. The good news is the Red Sox have options. The sexiest move would be to sign a big free agent like Edwin Encarnacion, whom the Sox are expected to pursue. Other free-agent options include Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista.

The Sox could also try to fill that void internally by using a combination of players. Taking Sandoval out of the field is a plus, especially if he can starting hitting like he did in San Francisco again. There’s also enough depth via Chris Young, Holt and perhaps Shaw that a rotation is possible. Either way, someone not named David Ortiz will have to DH for the Sox next season.

5.) What do they do with their catchers?

The Red Sox had a revolving door at catcher for most of the season. It started with Blake Swihart as the Opening Day catcher, but he struggled and was turned into a left fielder before getting hurt. Then came Christian Vazquez, who was called up in mid April after missing all of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. He looked good early, but slumped mightily in the middle of the year. Sandy Leon was called up in July, and remained the starting catcher the rest of the way as he posted .293 TAv in 283 plate appearances. The Sox also had Ryan Hanigan, who spent the year as the dependable backup through all the slumps and injuries at the position, and Bryan Holaday, who basically served as Pomeranz’s personal catcher.

Hanigan has a team option for next season and Holaday is a free agent. The Red Sox will probably let them go, leaving them with three catchers vying for one starting job next season. Both Vazquez and Swihart are promising despite disappointing seasons. Leon got off to an impressive start, but his .211/.276/.242 slash line over the final 29 games leaves skepticism over the legitimacy of that run.

The Sox have no need to improve the catcher position. However, it’s unclear who’s starting, who’s sitting and who’s going to Pawtucket. Based on his achievements last season, Leon probably deserves the starting job. Vazquez, meanwhile, has plenty to prove. Swihart is the most interesting case. He’s without a doubt the most likely trade candidate of the three, and could be dangled as part of a major trade offer. It’s also unclear whether or not the Sox plan to keep him as a catcher or return him to the outfield.

***

I suppose the real first step for Dombrowski is finding a new general manager. Once that happens, it’s time to improve a roster that appears close to World Series contention. There aren’t quite as many issues to address this offseason as opposed to the last two, but this winter is an important one for a team as disappointing as the Sox were in the playoffs.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

With an ace locked up and a revamped bullpen, the Red Sox could sit quietly until spring training and hear little complaints about their offseason work. But, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, there’s still an opportunity for the Sox to make improvements with the likes of Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton still available. Mastrodonato proposed three improbable, yet not unrealistic, moves the Red Sox could make to enhance their 2016 roster.

The first idea was to trade Hanley Ramirez and sign Davis. Yes, it’s unlikely Ramirez will have any suitors, but Davis, who had a respectable 5.7 UZR/150 last season, is a clear upgrade at first base. And with 47 home runs and a .390 wOBA last season, he’s also a better hitter. Same goes for Justin Morneau, whom Mastrodonato also proposed the Red Sox acquire as a stop-gap for Sam Travis if they can move Ramirez. Morneau has a career 2.9 UZR/150 as a first baseman and posted a .279 true average and .353 wOBA with the Rockies last year. He’d also come at a far cheaper price. Mastrodonato’s final proposal may have been the most unrealistic, but also the most irrelevant – trading Rusney Castillo and signing Alex Gordon. This can’t happen for two reasons. One, Gordon signed a four-year deal with the Royals on Wednesday. And two that would require a taker for Castillo, who struck out at an 18.7 percent rate last season. That’s without mentioning the millions he’s owed over the next five years.

If you thought that was too good to be true, wait until you see what ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick’s “Most Interesting People in 2016” story inspired. (Do I sound desperate for interesting things to write about?)

Two players who cracked Crasnick’s list were Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, both of whom are free agents at the end of next season. Crasnick suggested that one of the two could serve as the heir apparent to David Ortiz at DH. The Blue Jay Hunter’s Ian Hunter and Bluebird Banter’s Minor Leaguer took it a step further, plotting an all-out Blue Jays reunion in Boston with David Price, Bautista and Encarnacion in 2017. Crazy, right? Believe it or not, it could be done with a little luck and a willingness from the Red Sox to spend big next winter.

Individually, Bautista and Encarnacion are both capable of replacing the seemingly ageless Ortiz. Both players finished with higher TAvs and wOBAs, and hit more home runs than Big Papi in 2015 (Bautista also knows a good bat flip). The problem? One would have to field if both signed. Bautista is a respectable outfielder who would be an upgrade over Jackie Bradley Jr. or Castillo at the plate, and although Encarnacion isn’t known for his glove at third, a replacement for Pablo Sandoval is welcome. The biggest downside would be age. Bautista will be 36 and Encarnacion 34 during the 2017 season, so committing to long term contracts with both players would border on irresponsible. But hey, it’s OK to dream, right?

Quick Hits

As mentioned above, it’s January and many of baseball’s top free-agent bats are still available. The Boston Globe’s Nick Carfardo examines this situation and what it could mean for teams in need of offense over the next two months. The pitchers had their day in November and December. The expectation is the position players will get their big contracts next as plenty of teams are desperate for offense. But how far will some teams, such as the Orioles with Davis, go to sign these available players?

The Red Sox lost a pair of legends last week with the deaths of Dave Henderson and Frank Malzone. The Worcester Telegram’s Bill Ballou wrote about their permanent place in franchise history, as well as that of the many other former Red Sox players.

We’ve talked plenty about trading Castillo in this post, but not enough about what his value to the Red Sox will be in 2016. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith does just that. Castillo has been a disappointment so far. He has a career .226 TAv in 329 major-league plate appearances, and has struggled to stay healthy. Next season will be an important one for the 28-year-old Cuban defector, who will be in the third year of a seven-year, $72.5 million contract. The Sox clearly see potential in him, and he’ll get his chance to finally reach that point as a probable starting left fielder next season.

MLB.com’s Jim Callis listed 10 prospects poised to surge in 2016 last week. Among them was right-hander Anderson Espinoza, a Venezuelan flamethrower in the Red Sox organization. Espinoza is a 17-year-old who is lauded for his upper-90s fastball (he can touch 100 mph) combined with plus secondary pitches and command. He made such a strong showing in rookie ball that he even saw 3.1 innings of work in Low-A Greenville, where he posted a 2.88 FIP and 10.80 K/9.

Speaking of prospects, Fangraphs released its KATOH projections for Red Sox prospects this week, projections that were kind to the likes of Rafael Devers (9.6 WAR KATOH projection through age 28 season) and Travis (7.3) after breakthrough seasons in the minor leagues in 2015. Espinoza was also highly regarded on the list, cracking No. 4 with a 6.2 WAR projection.

Pitcher Steven Wright participated in a tour of five overseas military bases last month with a group that included several notable celebrities. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham wrote about Wright’s experience.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images