Once upon a time, Heath Hembree was The Closer Of The Future™ for the San Francisco Giants. It’s a title that many relief prospects have held (Craig Hansen says hello), and many will hold in the future, but for a brief point in time Hembree was one of *the* hot young reliever in baseball. Then, along with Edwin Escobar, he was traded to Boston in the deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Giants midway through the 2014 disaster of a season. He spent most of that first season in the organization with Pawtucket, but did make a few token appearances at the end of the year. They…they didn’t go so well.

What Went Right in 2015

Unsurprisingly, Hembree found himself in Pawtucket for a good chunk of the 2015 season. It wasn’t for a lack of opportunity, either, considering the dumpster fire of a bullpen the Red Sox employed for the whole season. With that being said, he did have a little bit of success at Triple-A. While he didn’t blow anyone away, he did finish the year by striking out an International League opponent per inning to go with a sub-3.00 ERA and FIP. Most importantly, he only gave up one home run in 32.2 innings. We’ll look at how good that is for him shortly.

While he did spend that time in Pawtucket, he also got more of a chance in the majors than he did the year before, getting to appear in 22 major-league games and throwing 25.1 innings. The performance was not really good, but we’re in the positives section of this program so let’s find some. Um. Uh. His ERA was 3.55, which comes in above-average. Let’s not talk about how reliable ERA is in this sample though, alright? He was also super adept at hitting the strike zone, finishing the year with the 47th best zone rate among the 524 pitchers who tossed at least 300 pitches. So, yay!

What Went Wrong in 2015

*Sigh*

Once Hembree left the friendly confines of the International League, things went most poorly for the inexperienced arm. Although he had a relatively shiny ERA, no other metrics backed that up. He finished with a 5.55 FIP, a 4.77 DRA and a 113 cFIP. Gross. One of the biggest reasons Hembree struggled was the long ball, of which he allowed five in just 25 innings, or 1.8 per nine innings. Just 34 of the 513 pitchers with at least 20 innings finished with a higher rate. This is likely always going to be a problem for him (albeit hopefully not as big of a problem) considering his inability to induce ground balls. Among that same group of 513 pitchers, only 11 had a lower ground ball rate than Hembree’s 30 percent mark.

The good news is there are some good names ahead of him on that list, including one Koji Uehara, but there’s a big piece missing in Hembree’s game right now. He just can’t translate his strikeout stuff to the highest level. After blowing opponents away through his minor-league career, he managed just 5.3 K/9 in 2015. His swinging-strike rate is certainly lower than average, though it’s high enough that one could envision a slight uptick in his strikeout totals. However, major-league hitters just aren’t at all fooled by his pitches out of the zone, as just 13 pitchers of the 524 with at least 300 pitches induced a lower chase rate. Until he can fool opponents, he’s going to be organizational depth.

Outlook for 2016

If everything goes according to plan for the Red Sox this year, Hembree will once again spend the majority of the year in Triple-A. Boston has added a tremendous amount of depth to their bullpen, particularly from the right side. With that being said, injuries will happen, and Hembree will likely start the year towards the top of that depth chart with Matt Barnes. Unfortunately for him, reliever depth can change quickly, so he’ll need to prove his worth early and often. He has Pat Light and Williams Jerez breathing down his neck, and Anthony Varvaro and Brandon Workman serving as X-Factors coming off of injuries. Once one of the hot young relievers in the game, Hembree will need to remember to pack his strikeout stuff on his next bus ride up to Boston if he wants to build a major-league career.

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When your season is a 162-game grind, having this kind of depth is hugely important. Injuries are going to happen and players are going to underperform for long stretches, giving you needs that you didn’t anticipate in February and March. As such, it’s important to complement your major-league depth with plenty of reinforcements on the farm. We all know about how highly regarded this Boston farm system is, but that’s in terms of overall talent. Do they have the proper depth in the upper levels to help out the big-league squad at any position where a need may pop up?

Catcher

We’ll start behind the plate, because that’s usually where people start this kind of thing and I have a crippling inability to think for myself. It’s here where the Red Sox possess an impressive amount of depth that will be the envy of the league barring any sort of trade. Boston wasn’t one of the best teams in the league here last year, but they’ll likely be returning a Blake Swihart/Ryan Hanigan duo that looked much better down the stretch. On top of that, they’ll also have Christian Vazquez back from his Tommy John rehab. The defensive wizard will probably work the rust off in Triple-A, but he’ll be ready whenever an injury occurs and gives the Red Sox maybe the best third catcher in the league. Sandy Leon accepted his assignment to Pawtucket after the season, giving them even more depth behind the plate. This will not be a worry this winter.

Infield

As I mentioned before, the Red Sox have two perfect backup infielders in Holt and Shaw, as they can both handle multiple positions and have shown an ability to thrive in an everyday role. However, if/when they need to step into the starting lineup, that will open up empty bench spots. In Pawtucket, they look like they’ll have some middle infield options, but the corner infield could be more iffy. Starting up the middle, Deven Marrero is the obvious guy to look to. He’s a plus defender and came up for the first time in 2015. There’s still plenty to worry about with his bat, but as a third option coming from Triple-A he works just fine. However, Marrero is also a possible trade candidate, which could leave a hole. Luckily, Boston acquired Marco Hernandez as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal a couple years ago, and he looks like a future utility player. While he doesn’t possess the same kind of glove as Marrero, he plays good defense at both second base and shortstop. Hernandez has also showed off solid bat-to-ball skills in the minors and should see some MLB time in 2016.

On the corners, things are a little less certain, as Boston’s depth depends on some reclamation projects. Chief among them in Allen Craig, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster once again. The only way he’ll see the majors again is if he lights the International League on fire over the first month or two of the season. Garin Cecchini never reached the heights of Craig, but he’s also fallen pretty far from his top prospect days, and 2016 could be his last chance to earn a permanent spot on a major-league roster. Finally, Sean Coyle was one of the dark horses to play a role on the 2015 team, but injuries and underperformance in the minors nixed that idea. It doesn’t look likely that any of these players will bounce all the way back in 2016, but there is some hope here that at least one can get back to (or finally reach) a respectable level.

Outfield

I alluded to this above, but this is the weakest area on the roster in terms of depth. Their current starting trio is full of youth and potential, but there’s not a lot of that in Pawtucket right now. On Opening Day, the only player who will be ready to step right in from Triple-A appears to be Bryce Brentz. That says about all you need to hear about the situation. Manuel Margot spent a good portion of last year in Double-A and should see Pawtucket at some point in 2016, but he’s not a viable depth option until at least July. That’s if he even stays with the organization. Expect the Red Sox to dip their toes into the minor-league free agent pool to find some extra outfield depth.

Rotation

This is the antithesis of the outfield, as Pawtucket’s rotation should be filled with viable rotation depth for the majors. There’s a chance that Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright all start the year in that rotation, and they are likely to be three of the top four backup starting pitchers, along with Joe Kelly. You can never have enough starting pitching, of course, and they could look for some more depth to add to this group, but it’s not a dire need at this moment if they add some quality to the top.

Bullpen

Like the rotation, the Red Sox should have plenty of relief arms handy in the Pawtucket bullpen. We saw the same pattern in 2015, as there were plenty of options to call upon when a fresh arm was needed. Of course, the issue was that none of those arms were particularly good. They’ll likely be looking at a similar cast of faces in 2016, at least to start the year. Heath Hembree, Jonathan Aro and Edwin Escobar will lead the way, although Pat Light and Jorge Marban should be able to provide some depth as well. Later in the year, Brandon Workman could be back in the mix and guys like Madison Younginer and Williams Jerez could have taken an unexpected step forward. Bullpen depth changes and evolves quickly and often, but as of right now there is some solid depth to pick from in case of injury.

★★★

The Red Sox are going to be focusing on the David Prices of the world this winter, but every year we see the best teams in the league rely on strong depth. Injuries happen to every ball club, and players who start the year in the minors have to play unexpectedly large roles in the middle of the season. Boston appears to be prepared for this scenario at most positions, with corner infield potentially being an issue and the outfield looking particularly shallow. While most of your attention can be paid to the big names, don’t forget about the depth pieces that get brought in to supplement the fringes of the roster.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Edwin Escobar, LHP and Marco Hernandez, SS

Edwin Escobar’s first season in the Red Sox organization has been a frustrating one at best. The left-hander, acquired from the Giants last summer in the Jake Peavy trade, was placed on the disabled list in spring training with inflammation in his left elbow, keeping him sidelined for the first two months of the season. The injury was a major setback for the 23-year-old, who spent the spring vying for a spot on the major league roster. Escobar returned to Pawtucket in mid-June, and has looked far from major-league ready. After starting throughout his minor-league career, the Venezuelan has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season. The results have been disastrous. He’s made 10 appearances in Triple-A, tossing 15 innings and posting a career-worst 6.51 FIP and 4.20 BB/9.

Escobar has never posted particularly impressive numbers throughout his career, but his performance thus far has been particularly discouraging. He’s struggled with command of his fastball, and his secondary pitches still need work. Escobar has looked better in recent outings, however. On Friday, he tossed two scoreless innings of relief, his second scoreless outing in his last three appearances. That’s a positive step from where he was three weeks ago. At 23, he’s still young given where he is in the minor-league system, and he’s probably not far from a shot at the majors, either, as he made a pair of brief appearances for the Red Sox last season. With the 2015 team in freefall and in possession of a shaky bullpen, Escobar’s next audition should come at the end of this season, when he can try to prove himself a reliable lefty reliever.

The last time we highlighted Marco Hernandez in this series, he was tearing up Double-A Portland while in the midst of the hottest streak of his career. The shortstop has yet to carry that over to Triple-A. He’s struck out 11 times in nine games since his promotion July 16, sporting a .223 true average and .285 wOBA. Hernandez joined the Red Sox with little fanfare this season. The 22-year-old was the player to be named later from the Cubs in exchange for Felix Doubront, and with a gluttony of noteworthy shortstops within the organization, he appeared to be an afterthought. All he’s done since is put up the best offensive numbers of his professional career through 68 games in Portland, earning him quick call-up to Pawtucket.

For a player not known for his bat, Hernandez’s struggles aren’t much of a surprise. He’s considered a below-average contact hitter whose best assets are his speed and his glove. Now that he’s adjusting to a new level where he’s facing pitching closer to major-league caliber, the numbers have naturally tailed off. Hernandez has plenty of time this season to adjust. But a return to late-June, early-July form seems improbable.

Double-A Portland: Sam Travis, 1B

One player who has adjusted well to his promotion is Sam Travis. After collecting just three hits in his first 38 plate appearances in Double-A, Travis has turned things around with a scalding hot July, hitting .349 with a .406 on-base percentage for the month thus far and raising his TAv to .277 with Portland. He’s continued to do what he’s done well since being drafted out of Indiana in the second round last season: make contact. Travis is a strong contact hitter with good plate discipline and a solid approach, which has been evident as he’s positioned himself to move quickly through the organization. In fact, that ability to work counts and make contact appears to be improving, as his K% is down to 9.2 percent through 28 Double-A games – his lowest professional mark. Travis’ ascension through the system has been impressive. He started in Lowell last June and has seen three promotions in just over 14 months. If he continues moving at this rate, the 21-year-old could make a pitch for another move upward next season.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball, LHP and Cole Sturgeon, OF

Trey Ball

Professional baseball continues to be a struggle for Trey Ball. Since being drafted by the Sox in the first round in 2013, the lefty has endured nothing but inconsistency as he’s tried to hone his command and his poise and continue to mature physically. Ball has experienced some success in High-A Salem this season – he tossed three scoreless outings in a four-game stretch in the middle of the year. However, it’s not a pace he’s ready to keep up. He has a good, hard fastball with plus potential, but has struggled to locate his pitches. Same goes for his changeup, which in the low-80s with late movement is a nice contrast to his heater. Right now he’s primarily a two-pitch starter as he continues to refine his curveball.

The Red Sox knew in Ball they were getting a raw pitcher who may take some time to progress. His numbers in Salem speak to that as he owns a 5.21 FIP and a 3.96 BB/9 through 19 starts. Aside from his command, his next biggest problem is his habit of surrendering home runs. He’s given up homers in three of his last four and five of his last seven outings, upping his HR/9 to 1.14. At 6-foot-6, 185 pounds, Ball is tall and lanky, and in need of added strength and size. That addition alone will aid him as he tries to find consistency in coming seasons.

On July 22, Cole Sturgeon was demoted to High-A Salem after 30 games in Double-A Portland. It was long overdue. The outfielder had a mere .205 TAv in Portland, striking out at a 19.6 percent rate. A 2014 10th round pick out of Louisville, Sturgeon started 2015 in Salem after a strong rookie season, and was promoted after a hot streak at the end of May in which he went on a nine-game hitting streak and collected hits in 11 of 12 games. Now Sturgeon, a contact hitter with a strong arm in the outfield, is back down but once again on a roll, riding a five-game hitting streak that’s carried into his first three games in High-A. Sturgeon sports just a .239 TAv in Salem, but he’s lately had little trouble against pitching at that level. Perhaps with enough time he’ll make similar adjustments against Double-A pitching.

Low-A Greenville: J.T. Watkins, C

J.T. Watkins is 25 years old, but his professional journey is a relatively new one. The catcher was drafted by the Red Sox in the 2012 10th round out of Army, but is just seeing playing time this season after missing two full years of development due to his mandatory military commitment. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes in his feature on Watkins in spring training, the odds are heavily stacked against the catcher as he’s trying to become the first West Point graduate to make it to the major leagues. Watkins does have a few things going for him, however. For one, his father is Red Sox scout Danny Watkins. And two, he’s a talented catcher with a strong arm and leadership ability behind the plate. Watkins started the season in High-A Salem, but after a pair of hitless efforts wound up in Greenville. The results have been promising for the catcher since the demotion. He’s played just seven games since July 10, but has hit well when given the opportunity. Watkins is currently on a six-game hitting streak, sporting a .416 wOBA so far. The trouble for him is finding playing time behind the three other catchers on the roster.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com