Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

At one point, that being before the 2015 season, Owens was a top 20 prospect, the next great Red Sox starting pitcher, coming up behind such luminaries as Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz, and…did I mention Clay Buchholz? Owens was a gangly six-foot-six with a fastball that could break a pane of glass, assuming that glass wasn’t very thick. He never had great command — or control,  for that matter — but what made it all work was the Greatest Changeup Ever Thrown. It appeared to be Owens’ mediocre-at-best fastball, but then, midway to the plate, it stopped and went straight downward. There it dug a hole into the ground and tunneled beneath the plate and up to the catcher. It was unhittable and hitters appropriately responded by not hitting it. It was that pitch that racked up the strikeouts, especially in the low minors, and brought him up up through the system to Boston for his first major league start as a 22-year-old.

Owens made 11 starts for the Red Sox at the end of the lost season of 2015, holding his own in the process. There were warts visible for sure, but with refinement, especially to his command, it wasn’t hard to see him as a number two starter. It never happened, and in fact, what happened instead was the opposite. Owens command got worse. He was always able to get a few strikeouts but the walks were creeping up and up, into an area unacceptable for a major league pitcher.

That’s where things stood entering the 2017 season.

What Went Right

In a macro sense, nothing. Well, okay, Owens didn’t get hurt, which I suppose is a good place to be when you are a pitcher, but beyond that, everything was pretty much awful for Owens in 2017. He started the year in Triple-A as a 24-year-old, which is fine, though if you’ll recall from a few paragraphs ago, Owens was in Boston as a 22-year-old. That’s not a lot of progress in two seasons. Still, Triple-A is only one rung below the majors. Then the 2017 season started and that concludes What Went Right. Meet me below in the What Went Wrong section for the conclusion to Henry Owens season and his time with the Red Sox.

What Went Wrong

Unlike Triple-A, Double-A is not a rung below the majors, so when Owens was sent there following 69 innings in Pawtucket, it was not a good sign. It was, however, a bit odd considering his numbers. Owens had pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA and was striking out 9.4 per nine innings, all of which are good. However he was also walking 7.8 per nine, and really that only gets to the start of it. Owens command was gone and the Red Sox, tired of seeing him nibble and walk hitter after hitter, tried to shake things up. Things were shaken up, but they did not improve in Double-A where Owens’ K rate went south and his walk rate went north.

Things got so bad that the Red Sox gave up on the idea of Owens as a starter and altered his arm slot in order to make him a sidearming lefty specialist reliever. That didn’t work during the year, so Boston sent him to the Arizona Fall League where things just generally were bad. Walks, few strikeouts, lots of runs allowed, all of it ugh. That was the last straw.

The Red Sox cut Owens from his perch on the 40-man roster and Arizona picked him up. Bye-bye, Henry.

What To Expect

As far as the Red Sox are concerned, there’s nothing to expect. His Red Sox career is finished. For Arizona, Owens is a nice free flyer on a guy who was, at one point in the not too distant past, considered talented. Owens will be 25 this season so perhaps he can find his changeup again and rekindle his flickering-at-best career. In and odd way, a thing he has going for him is his size. It can take very tall pitchers extra seasons to figure out how to repeat their mechanics, something Owens always had difficulty doing. Maybe changing organizations will help Owens. It can’t hurt.

It’s a shame that Owens was never able to find the most basic level of command because his changeup was devastating and the Red Sox sure could use another young pitcher to help at the major league level. Maybe in an alternative universe the Red Sox were able to unlock Owens’ potential and he’s slated for a rotation spot headed into 2018, but in this, the extremely crappy universe we live in, they weren’t. And now Owens is elsewhere and the Red Sox are where they always seem to be, up a creek without a paddle when it comes to developing starting pitching. Maybe this is a trend the team can begin to buck with Jay Groome and now Tanner Houck. You’d hope so. An organization can only coast on having developed Lester and Buchholz for so long.

Photo by Jonathan Dyer – USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox handled David Ortiz’s retirement and the subsequent loss of his offensive prowess by doubling down on run prevention with the trade for Sale. That deal brought in one of the premier starters in baseball, but it also added a seventh to what had already been six Red Sox starters, though the trade of Clay Buchholz to Philadelphia brought that number back down to six again. Still, six is one too many and Rodriguez, by virtue of his age (23) but mostly his remaining minor league options was the odd man out. Now, oh how things have changed. 

Now David Price is out for the foreseeable future and maybe longer. Now Drew Pomeranz has a sore triceps muscle in addition to any lingering issues from last season’s injury. Now Steven Wright is fully healthy, but is 32 and coming off a shoulder injury sustained from sliding into second while pinch running. He may pitch 200 innings this year, or he may pull a lat stabbing a particularly frisky juice box with a plastic straw and spend the season rehabbing. That’s three-fifths of the rotation that ranges from actively injured to remarkably fragile. 

Of course, that’s the nature of pitching. The next pitch could always be the last one. That speaks to the importance of depth because not every team can be the 2016 Blue Jays and get 29 starts or more from five different guys. This is why Rodriguez has taken on so much importance of late. Not only is he healthy but he’s not any of Boston’s starting pitching depth, which consists of Rockies cast-off Kyle Kendrick and the stalled careers of former prospects Brian Johnson and Henry Owens. Johnson is coming off a lost season due to anxiety issues and, though he seems to be feeling better, his pitching has looked rusty to say the least. For Owens it’s the same old control problems that he’s never been able to shake. Kendrick has looked quite good but, again, it’s Spring Training, and we’re talking about a pitcher who A) hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015, and B) put up an ERA over six that season. Right now the fewer innings pitched by those three, the better the Red Sox will be. 

Every game started by former sixth starter Rodriguez is a game the Red Sox don’t have to dip into that nonexistent depth.

Starting pitching depth not withstanding, it seems fair to say after looking at Boston’s roster that this could be a very good baseball team. PECOTA projects them for first in the East by three games. But the more games Kendrick starts, the more games the bullpen has to soak up after Owens throws 50 pitches and can’t get out of the second, the further down the standings the Red Sox will plummet. Every game started by former sixth starter Rodriguez is a game the Red Sox don’t have to dip into that nonexistent depth. As good as the Red Sox could be, they’re in no position to throw games away.

So that’s why Rodriguez is important. He’s a starter with an arm attached, a healthy shoulder, a healthy elbow, and his name isn’t Kyle Kendrick or Henry Owens. That’s a good start! But might Rodriguez actually be good in 2017? I should start by noting PECOTA isn’t especially jazzed about him, pegging him for just under a win (0.8 WARP), a 4.18 ERA, and eight quality starts out of 16. Meh. What PECOTA doesn’t know though is that Rodriguez struggled with his command, with pitch tipping, and with just about everything following a knee injury during spring training. After giving up nine runs in 2.2 innings to Tampa in late June, Rodriguez was sent to Pawtucket. At the time of his demotion, he had thrown 29.1 innings on the year and given up 29 runs. 

When he came back, he was a completely different pitcher. In the next 77.2 innings he gave up 28 runs, one fewer than he had in his first six starts. He struck out 79 of 321 hitters he faced, or 24.6 percent. For some context, last season Jon Lester struck out 24.8 percent of the hitters he faced. David Price struck out 24 percent, Jake Arrieta K’d 23.9 percent, and Cole Hamels 23.6 percent. That’s good company. Of course, it means less if comes with a ton of walks and homers. After returning to the bigs, Rodriguez walked 8.7 percent of the hitters he faced (8.4 if you don’t count intentional walks) and he gave up seven homers, or one every other start, which is perfectly reasonable. The guy who went down to Pawtucket was not a major league-quality pitcher, but the guy who came back was a number two in most starting rotations. 

There isn’t anything in those numbers that looks unsustainable either. The BABIP was good but not ridiculous, the batted ball profile matched the results, and so did the strikeouts, walks, and homers. The Rodriguez that spent the second half in Boston was legitimately a very good pitcher.

Perhaps the most interesting part of Rodriguez’s reemergence was the alteration of his pitch mix. When he started the season he was throwing mostly fastballs with the occasional changeup and a very occasional cutter. Only rarely would he employ a slider. Then after coming back from Triple-A, the cutter disappeared, usage of the change dropped from 18 percent to eight percent, and the slider became his favorite off-speed pitch. That changed bit-by-bit, month-by-month until September and October, when the change had reemerged as the preeminent out-pitch, though the slider remained a frequent offering. Overall, Rodriguez seems to have learned not to lean too heavily on any one pitch. 

With the obvious caveat that Spring Training stats aren’t extremely meaningful, we haven’t seen anything this spring to indicate we should expect anything other than the second half Rodriguez, the good Rodriguez, this season. His velocity is good, his strikeouts are there, and his control looks strong. 

He will have bad starts. All pitchers have them. And for all the excitement of this article, Rodriguez has shown a proclivity towards injury in his career, including tweaking a knee in winter ball this past December. While it is fair to be concerned about those injuries, the positive is that none have been arm or shoulder injuries. If one really wants to paint the linings silver, you could say they’ve even functioned so as to limit Rodriguez’s innings over the past few seasons, which should hopefully keep his arm fresher. In reality though, no injury is ever good, but there’s no real reason to think Rodriguez is especially injury prone either.

With the precarious position the Red Sox find themselves with regard to the starting rotation, it’s good they have someone like Eduardo Rodriguez poised to take the next step. In fact, Rodriguez really already took that next step last season. Now he just needs to do it for longer than 77 innings. We already know he is someone who can make up for injuries suffered by his rotation-mates, and keep the team from having to put too many weak band-aids on sweaty hands. This year though a once strong Red Sox rotation had him on the outside looking in, but now the opportunity to be more than just a guy has arisen. Now he may just be the guy who holds this thing together. It’s funny how things work out sometimes. 

Photo by Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports

Despite a minor medical miracle taking place, the biggest ripple effect the news had on the team was the sudden spotlight placed on its starting pitching depth. There was the indictment of Dave Dombrowski because he traded Clay Buchholz for pennies on the dollar. That was followed by speculation about what it would take to trade for another ace, because apparently that’s the Red Sox’s only move now. Those zesty takes were followed, however, by the most daunting exercise of all: a look at the team’s internal options. The Red Sox have about a half dozen options to turn to in case of a serious injury, and only one of them inspires one ounce of confidence. Quantity certainly doesn’t assure quality, which is ultimately a pickle that the Red Sox know they’re one sore elbow from having to address. From the lot of current Triple-A guys, here’s one (now incredibly relieved that this is a hypothetical exercise) fan’s guess at who would be best option to turn to.

The (hopefully, presuming I cherry-pick the right stats to show) Good

Eduardo Rodriguez/Steven Wright

This one comes with a bit of a caveat, because it’s more likely than not that they both make a significant number of starts this season even with Price being presumably healthy. It’s still too early to tell how the Red Sox are going to handle dealing with the fact that they have two spots for three starters; it seems that Rodriguez is ahead of both Wright and Pomeranz when it comes to health, but Rodriguez is also the only one of the three with options left. There’s obviously a desire for patience and precaution when it comes to Rodriguez, but there’s also no doubt that the Red Sox would prefer to have a lefty who’s shown flashes of being a front-line starter when healthy pitch more frequently than two arms who, while dependable, have significantly lower ceilings (All-Star appearances aside).

In the long run, Wright just feels like the odd man out, which is entirely unfair. Rodriguez is never going to be a spot-starter, and the team will ride with Pomeranz a little longer – whether they want to or not – based on what they saw from him in San Diego and what they gave up to get him. That being said, there are much worse things than having an All-Star caliber knuckleballer as the backup option. Wright is the most versatile of the bunch, which ironically means he’s the most likely to get sent to the bullpen. Baseball sucks sometimes.

The (probably, but maybe not?) Bad

Kyle Kendrick

He gets placed in this tier simply because he’s logged a bunch of major league innings over his career and would presumably limit the damage a tad more effectively than anyone who follows. There’s not a lot that stands out when you look at his numbers, as he’s been roughly a replacement-level pitcher since he broke through with the Phillies in 2007. If there’s something positive to be said about Kendrick, it’s that he’s dependable – only once in his career has he pitched fewer than 100 innings (2009). He doesn’t strike people out (career 12.7 K%) and his walk numbers (career 6.6 BB% and 2.59 BB/9) are neither fantastic nor alarming. He has a tendency to give up homers (career 1.24 HR/9 and 12% HR/FB), although playing in Colorado last season surely played into the career-worst performance he put up in those categories last season. He’s a prime candidate for some small bounce-back this season, but even a positive regression to career norms isn’t thrilling anyone.

Brian Johnson

I’m aware that having Johnson this high up could be seen as a stretch and I’ve admittedly always been higher on him than is probably accurate, but hear me out: when Johnson isn’t hurt, the numbers say he could be a useful insurance policy. Staying healthy has always been his biggest battle, but it wasn’t that long ago when he was putting up 118 innings of impressive baseball (1.75 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 7.55 K/9 in 2014) in Double-A. Take this for what it’s worth, but the reports about Johnson from camp so far have been overwhelmingly positive. David Price he is not, but it only gets worse from here, so for now, a healthy Johnson should – but probably won’t – get a crack at the majors before any of his Pawtucket teammates.

Hector Velazquez

For the time being, Velazquez represents the least reliable yet most intriguing option in this tier. He’s only pitched in Mexico, and his numbers, barring last season, are incredibly average. To his credit, he put up a 2.79 FIP while striking out just over eight batters per nine innings and walking a hair above one (!) batter per nine as well. Those are good numbers, and numbers that the Red Sox would be thrilled with from a depth/bullpen option. He throws hard, but so did Daniel Bard (is that comparison less sad if it rhymes?). Velazquez represents an intriguing option who’s more than likely going to end up spending most of the season in the minors with an outside shot of helping the bullpen at some point later in the summer.

The Ugly

Roenis Elias/Henry Owens

I’ll group these two together because you’re not any more interested in reading separate entries for these guys than I am writing them. It’s sad that we’ve arrived here, considering there was, at one point, pretty substantial (albeit cautious) optimism for both of these guys not too long ago. At this point in both of their careers, they simply just don’t have the command to be successful or even viable major league options. Owen’s well-documented struggles have helped distract from the slightly-less-horrible-but-still-concerning stats that Elias has been putting up under essentially the same workload. While a look at their numbers suggests that they’re more similar than not, previous call-ups over the last season or two suggest that the team still views Owens as the preferred option. Whether that makes sense or not – Elias is basically Owens with one fewer walk per nine innings – is an argument for another time. Still – either one of them getting substantial innings on the major league roster would indicate that something went very, very wrong. If the Red Sox are truly as all-in as their last two offseason’s worth of moves have indicated, there’s no way they seriously roll the dice with either Elias or Owens.

Photo by Kamil Krazynski/USA Today Sports Images 

There’s a certain string of emotions when watching sports that everyone has experienced. It’s the general “sinking stone” feeling. Your team gets out to a lead, and sure, it’s a bit shaky. You convince yourself that it’ll be okay, that the feeling is just fleeting. As if some deity heard you, everything goes bad the moment you do that. Your heart drops into your foot. It’s pure, unadulterated carnage, but you can’t stop watching. You’ve already accepted defeat and the game’s not even halfway over. Your eyes glaze over and you wish for it to end. (Eat at Arby’s.)

The Red Sox used newly-acquired Roenis Elias as a starter for one game. Go back to that last paragraph, start from “Your heart drops…”, and re-read it from there. You have now encapsulated that one start. Congratulations!

What Went Right In 2016

Literally nothing. He is a cautionary tale in what happens when you need your tenth-best starter to pitch.

Okay, maybe not nothing, but if I’m looking for a silver lining here, he at least resembled a starting pitcher in Pawtucket. Compared to the next segment, that’s pretty okay.

What Went Wrong In 2016

From the start, it was bad.

He started three games in Spring Training and turned in one decent start. He was optioned to Triple-A at the end of March, as he had no shot to make the rotation at that point. The Red Sox called him up for some bullpen help on April 22nd. The next day, the Houston Astros scored three runs off of him over 1.2 innings. Elias was sent down the day afterwards to make room for Henry Owens. Yeah. That was a thing.

Elias was then called up on June 17th to make that one fateful start against his former team, the Seattle Mariners. Here’s how Franklin Gutierrez greeted him:

Park attendants are still looking for that second home run ball. As you can expect, he was sent back down again soon after.

Third time wasn’t really the charm for Elias, as the next time he was called up, he allowed a run over two innings while facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not as bad as his last two outings, but still ineffective. Nine batters faced, four hits, no strikeouts, no walks. Sigh.

The Red Sox opted to go with Owens and even Sean O’Sullivan as their spot starter over Elias several times in 2016. Combine that with Carson Smith needing Tommy John surgery, and you’ve got a Wade Miley trade that did very little for either team in 2016. Not great, Bob!

What To Expect in 2017

He’s not this bad. Probably. Elias has done better in the majors before and he’s flashed limited strikeout potential. His ceiling isn’t high, but the most you can expect from him is a spot-start or two and some long relief appearances when the bullpen’s gassed. He’ll first have to be a better pitcher than Owens or even O’Sullivan if he wants to get a decent amount of innings, and if we’re being fair here, that bar isn’t set particularly high. If he can’t, he’s only a passable LOOGY that’s stuck behind Robby Scott. It’s a hard-knock life for starting pitcher depth.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Last season went as well for Henry Owens as “Our American Cousin” did for Mary-Todd Lincoln; take out Owens’s effectively one walk per inning in his limited big-league run (or a similarly bad rate in AAA) and you might feel some fondness for the performance, much as Mrs. Lincoln may have enjoyed the show at Ford’s Theater, spousal murder notwithstanding. That, of course — as the line from a far more famous play goes — is the rub, and in neither case can we get past it.

But Owens’ Red Sox career, and his long-term future in Major League Baseball, is still alive. There is not a lot of hope, but there are examples of players with durable arms figuring their stuff out later in their careers, or at least after the age of 25, and a tall lefty is gonna get every chance to prove himself over the long term. If Owens fails himself out of Dave Dombrowski’s good graces, there’s almost no question that another organization will try to salvage him; one man’s trash, etc. At the very least, Boston’s current glut of potential starting pitchers (so many of them lefties) eases the burden on Owens to perform well right away, at least in theory. In practice, no number of starting pitchers is too many, and as long as he’s around, Owens might be called on for some garbage time innings in 2017. In the rare event they’re not garbage when he starts, they probably will be when he finishes. He’s got a long way to go.

What went right in 2016

On April 29, Owens pitched six innings of two-run ball at Fenway against the Yankees in a game that the Red Sox would eventually win 4-2. He struck out three, walked three, allowed a homer to A-Rod (his 691st) and six hits total. He left facing a 2-0 deficit, but the Sox would score two in the bottom of the seventh and take the lead for good on a David Ortiz two-run homer in the eighth. He neither pitched particularly well nor got the win, but it was unequivocally and far and away his best performance of the year out of the grand total of five appearances he made.

What went wrong in 2016

He was beaten out by Sean O’Sullivan for an emergency rotation spot, which says most of what you need to know. Owens’s other four appearances were a disaster, and his time in the minor leagues was *slightly* better. He was so bad in the show you’d think that he’d been replaced by Daniel Day-Lewis… except in that case you’d expect DD-L to be, you know, good. Owens was awful. The next time he toed the rubber following the Yankees start, he lasted three innings on the South Side against the White Sox, walking six, striking out two and allowing two runs. He’d only appear in two games after that: a spot start in Detroit in August (5 IP, 8 ER) and another one in September after the Sox had clinched the east against the Yankees in the Bronx (4.2 IP, 2 ER). At no point did it seems like there was any “there” there with Owens, who threw 120+ IP at Pawtucket over the year and still couldn’t find the plate (5.3 BB/9). But hey, he had a 3.53 ERA! Which leads us to…

What to expect in 2017:

Can Owens find the mound at Fenway this year? Barring a miracle turnaround or a disastrous sequence for the Boston rotation, the answer is probably NONONONONO PLEASE NO. At the same time, I don’t see how the Sox could find much value in moving on from him now… which doesn’t mean they won’t, but Owens’s value is either at a historical low or never existed to begin with. That sounds harsh, but the former is still more likely than the latter. There’s not much incentive to give up on Owens now — in fact, there’s a disincentive. The only thing left is upside, but there’s no telling if Owens really has a second act, or we’re already at the end.

Photo by Kamil Krazynski/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): With the game tied at one in the bottom of the fifth inning, Aaron Hicks led things off with a bloop bunt single that just barely got past Henry Owens’ outstretched glove. After Hicks reached, Owens composed himself and retired the next two batters. But then Jacoby Ellsbury – who had a terrific game (two hits, two walks, a stolen base, a run scored and a RBI) – doubled to center field, plating Hicks for the Yankees’ second run (WPA: +.166).

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play of the game came in the top half of the fifth inning. After Jackie Bradley Jr. grounded out to start the inning, Ryan Hanigan, getting his first start in two weeks, singled to center. Unfortunately, the threat of any run scoring was quickly extinguished, as CC Sabathia got Travis Shaw to roll over a slider, grounding it down the first base line. Yankee first baseman Tyler Austin fielded the ball, touched first base and then threw to second in time to get the plodding Hanigan (WPA: -.069). It was the closest the Red Sox would come to having a player reach second base safely the rest of the night.

Key Moment: It did not have much bearing on the final outcome of the game, but Xander Bogaerts’ game-tying home run in the fourth inning off CC Sabathia was a welcome sight. It is also worth noting that the ball he hit in the ninth probably would have left the yard on another night, but the nasty wind howling around Yankee Stadium late last night knocked it down. These moments are noteworthy because Xander has scuffled significantly in the second half, leading to questions about him being fatigued and worries about how he will hold up through the playoffs. While it is almost certainly the case that he is fatigued after playing in all but five of the Red Sox’s 159 games, Xander’s performance over the last two weeks suggests he is fine. Over that period, he has posted a batting line of .261/.370/.435 (54 PA), which is much closer to his impressive first half line (.329/.388/.475) than it is to what his second half line was two weeks ago (through September 14: .250/.302/.394). Hopefully he has regained his stroke at the plate and can continue his recent string of success into the postseason.

Trend to Watch: Playing time. How will John Farrell manage to give his players time off between now and the start of the Division Series? It is a good idea to give the regulars a day or two off before next week’s postseason games, but also important to give them enough playing time to keep them fresh and ready to roll. It will be a juggling act. There is also the concern of winning enough to earn/maintain home-field advantage in their playoff series. Given Cleveland’s injury issues, I think the Red Sox’s preference should be to play Cleveland, rather than the winner of the Wild Card game (Toronto/Baltimore/Detroit). So securing the second best record in the AL is of interest, but chasing the top spot is likely not worth it.

Coming next: The Red Sox head home to Fenway and welcome in the Toronto Blue Jays for the final series of the season. There was a time not too long ago when this series had the potential to be very important, but now the Sox are playing out the string, and will be focusing on lining themselves up for the playoffs as best they can. Rick Porcello will take the hill for the Red Sox looking to finish up his strong season on a positive note. Opposing Porcello on the mound will be the Blue Jays’ Marco Estrada. Estrada has had another solid season in Toronto, as his ability to get batted balls turned into outs continued at an incredibly high rate. Ideally the offense can knock Estrada around a bit and make Toronto’s quest to secure the top wild card spot difficult.

Photo by Anthony Gruppuso/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the third inning, Owens have up a two-run double to J.D. Martinez (.195). The pitch Martinez hit wasn’t all that bad, but Owens had walked Jarrod Saltalamacchia to lead off the inning (a common theme) and, after an Erick Aybar double and two quick outs, the Red Sox elected to intentionally walk Miguel Cabrera to load the bases. The move didn’t work out. Yes, Martinez is one of the hottest hitters on the planet right now, but it was a pick your poison scenario, as John Farrell said after the game. Electing not to pitch to Miggy wasn’t crazy.

Anyway, it was just a two-RBI double, so no biggie, right? Well, while the pitch Martinez hit was pretty good, the pitch Justin Upton destroyed for a three-run homer (.153) was not. Neither was the second three-run homer Upton hit two innings later (.029). It got ugly.

Bottom Play (WPA): A Cameron Maybin strikeout before the aforementioned Cabrera walk and Martinez double qualified as the bottom WPA play of the game (-.086). It didn’t slow the Tigers down much.

For the Red Sox, the worst play was a routine Xander Bogaerts fly-out with Dustin Pedroia on first and two out in the top of the third (-.026). Exciting stuff.

Key Moment: The first of the two Upton bombs, in this writer’s estimation. Sure, the Martinez double was bad, but the Red Sox are more than capable of coming back from a 2-0 deficit. A 5-0 deficit in the third inning is a different story.

On a happier note, Andrew Benintendi hit his first MLB homer in the top of the seventh off Shane Greene. He also hit his first triple earlier in the game and my god his hair is glorious.

Trend to Watch: A few negatives here.

First, Henry Owens can’t pitch in the majors again until (or rather, unless) he improves his command. Owens walked the leadoff batter in three of his five innings pitched and walked five batters overall. He missed plenty of bats, too (8 strikeouts), but none of that mattered. When you throw in the high 80s/low 90s, you’re going to get hit some. When you get hit, the bases need to be as empty as possible. That’s not the case with Owens, who isn’t an MLB-quality starter right now. Hopefully 2017 holds better things in store for the young southpaw.

Second … yikes, Junichi Tazawa. Yet another rough outing for the once-reliable setup man saw him allow three hits and two runs in two innings, though he did strike out three batters. Tazawa wasn’t bad enough to consider cutting outright but he wasn’t good enough to do much to make us feel better about his use, either.

Finally, the Red Sox weren’t able to do much of anything against Justin Verlander. That’s not surprising given the run the Tigers’ ace is on, but Pedroia, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts all went hitless in the game. Bad things happen when that’s the case.

Coming Next: The Red Sox take their show to Tropicana Field for a four-game set. David Price will face off against his old friends and Blake Snell, first pitch at 7:10 pm EST.

Photo by Kamil Kraznyski/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Henry Owens (LHP)

Time is a flat circle. Since he last showed up in Fenway’s Future two weeks ago, this is how he’s pitched:

8/3 @ ROC: five innings, four hits, one earned run, four walks, seven strikeouts.

8/9 vs. DUR: six innings, four hits, no earned runs, four walks, seven strikeouts.

I don’t know anymore, guys. He is what he is, and he’s not what he’s not (analysis!). As is generally the name of the game with Henry Owens, I’ll pick at the silver linings. He’s allowed less than two runs in each of his last three starts while going at least five in all three. There. That’s the silver lining. Otherwise, he’s averaging almost two more walks per 9 innings than he was last year in Pawtucket, going from 4.1 in 2015 to 5.8 this season. His K/9 is up a tick, but not nearly enough to justify the walks, if that was something you were desperately trying to do. There are probably close to a half-dozen pitchers ahead of him in the September call-up line; some are intriguing (oh hey Brian Johnson) and some induce panic attacks (that’s you Noe Ramirez) and some have Great Stuff (shouts to Joe Kelly).

Also hey fun fact Rusney Castillo is hitting .425 over his last 10 games.

Double-A Portland: The offense last night (all the positions) 

Portland is 45-70. The season ends in three weeks. They are smack-dab in the middle of “The Little Things” portion of their season. That’s why last night’s win over the equally terrible Eerie Sea Wolves must have been a thing of beauty for Sea Dog fans. There were five dingers, 22 hits and a team-record 45 total bases. Cody Decker had two home runs – you go Cody Decker. Aneury Tavarez went 4-4 with a double and a tripple – atta baby Aneury Tavarez! Ryan Court had five RBI – beers on Ryan Court! The Yoan-Moncada-Of-Games-Yoan-Moncada-Doesn’t-Play-in, Mauricio Dubon, had a triple and 3 RBI. It was 86 degrees with some cloud cover and the game was over in under three hours. Most importantly, they established themselves as the alpha Sea-Canine of the Eastern League. Just a terrific effort all around.

Circling back around, Aneury Tavarez has just been pretty quietly playing really well, right? He’s slashing .329/.375/.502 with a .877 OPS in 83 games at Portland this year. The highest he’s ever hit besides that was when he his .272 back in 2012. It’s nice to see him finally put it together.

High-A Salem: (Michael Kopech – RHP)

He’s pitched 33 innings in Salem and holds a 1.08 ERA. He’s striking out 13 batters per 9 innings. Additionally, I’d be remiss to mention that he once hit 105 on the radar gun. Soak it up while you can, residents of Salem, Virginia as well as residents of the other towns he makes starts in on the road. On the other hand, get excited, residents of Portland as well as residents of the other towns he’ll make starts at on the road. There’s really not much left to prove in Salem for Kopech, and with Anderson Espinoza gone the coveted yet also sort of dubious position as Red Sox top pitching prospect is up for grabs. You could argue that even without making a start, that title belongs to Jason Groome, but hey, let’s give Kopech his moment in the sun.

He went six shut out innings while allowing one run and striking out 10 on August 2nd before following that up with five shut out innings while allowing three hits and striking out seven. He’s allowed more than one run once in his last 10 starts and allowed four runs in eight starts. The hype train is in full-force and is moving right along at 105 miles per hour. Get it? Because he threw 105 that one time, so his hype train is moving 105. Whatever.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Pat Light (RHP) and Henry Owens (LHP)

It’s been a weird year for Pat Light. Light made a single major league appearance at the end of April and then got another audition when the entire Red Sox bullpen was inwardly collapsing upon itself in early July. To date, those appearances haven’t gone so well. In the ridiculous 21-2 blowout at the hands of the Angels on July 2, Light allowed six runs (five earned) on five hits. The game already well out of hand by that time, John Farrell rather mercilessly left Light on the mound for a difficult 1.2 innings.

Light was sent back to Pawtucket after the game and reentered the Triple-A bullpen. When not at the major league level, he’s been very effective this season, posting a 2.22 ERA across 22 appearances, striking out 34 in 28.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .168 against him and he has amassed a 1.16 WHIP. While the Pat Light Experience in the majors has thus far been disappointing, he has been impressive at the Triple-A level. Considering that the big league club cannot seem to keep more than two relievers healthy and effective at the same time (praying for you, Koji), Light may just get another chance.

Let’s check back in on Henry Owens, shall we? A couple summers ago, the left-hander impressed at every stop in the minors and had Sox fans eagerly awaiting his Fenway debut. Then, 2016 came, and he forgot how to throw strikes. After debuting to tolerable results a year ago (a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts), Owens has made three starts for the Red Sox in 2016, accruing a WIP of 1.05 — that’s not a typo, that’s just walks per inning pitched. Owens walked more than a batter per inning.

He hasn’t been bad since being sent to Pawtucket, registering a 4.07 ERA and holding hitters to a .207 batting average against him. Unfortunately, the walks have remained a problem. He’s allowed 66 hits but surrendered 60 free passes to boot.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though! Owens’ last start was a very impressive one, as he took a no-hitter into the 8th inning on July 16. After getting two outs and hitting a batter, Owens allowed an infield single and walked a man to load the bases. The lanky lefty was pulled, and reliever Chandler Shepherd gave up a double that plated all three runners. So while his line showed 7.2 innings and three earned runs, he was even better than that. More importantly, his walks were down, issuing just two free passes while striking out four.

After the addition of a fourth solid starter in Drew Pomeranz, the window may be shutting for minor league starters to gain big-league opportunities this season. But if the team can’t find a fifth starter among the motley crew of Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz and Sean O’Sullivan, another minor league pitcher like Owens could get have an opportunity down the stretch.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF):

It’s easy to forget about the foolhardy $72.5 million investment the team made in Castillo considering that two of the team’s outfielders started the All-Star game last week. It’s hard not to think that Castillo, given the price tag, could and should have been the third member of a dynamic and potentially league-best outfield. Instead, as we know, the Cuban transplant has flopped. Hard. Castillo is currently hitting .230 with an OPS of .591 in Pawtucket. He has only two homers and 19 RBIs on the season.

Double-A Portland: Yoan Moncada (2B) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

So, uh, this dude is really good. You may have seen him wallop a homer out of Petco Park in the Futures game last week en route to winning the game’s MVP award. Well, he wasn’t finished. Moncada went out and hit two more bombs Monday night, giving him six in his past 12 games. As Jared Carrabis pointed out, Moncada’s slugging percentage in July (.952) is higher than the OPS of almost everyone else at Double-A. In this 12-game span, Moncada is slashing .405/.528/.952, improving his line on the season at Double-A to .325/.416/.623. On the updated midseason prospect rankings, Baseball Prospectus listed Moncada as baseball’s second-best prospect.

Moncada, of course, isn’t the only star prospect being monitored closely in Portland. His teammate and seventh-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Andrew Benintendi, is also making waves in the Sox system. While the outfielder struggled initially following his promotion to Double-A, he has since improved his line in Portland to .277/.343/.476. Since June 10, Benintendi is hitting .327 with a 1.014 OPS, and was no. 11 on BP’s midseason prospect ranks.

These two names will likely continue be linked to one another as the team’s top-two prospects make their way to the majors. While Moncada’s numbers have been more impressive overall, it’s been Benintendi who has drawn more attention in the context of a potential promotion to the majors. Dave Dombrowski has expressed a willingness to promote players directly from Double-A to the bigs. The speculation is compounded by the question marks surrounding the team’s third outfield spot next to Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Injuries to left fielders Chris Young, Not Just A Catcher Blake Swihart, and Brock Holt left some clamoring for Benintendi to be called up sooner rather than later.

While Moncada may force his way up the ladder if he continues to tear the cover off the ball, there’s no obvious place to put him at the major league level as long as Dustin Pedroia is manning second base. At some point, it seems likely that Moncada will be moved to third (or even a corner outfield spot), where his path to playing time will be less cluttered.

We may not see either play at Fenway this season, but if they continue their torrid pace, Benintendi and Moncada may leave Dombrowski little choice but to call them up. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com wrote about bringing them both up and having them on the October roster, should the Sox make the playoffs. The possibility harkens back to Jacoby Ellsbury’s late-season addition to the 2007 team in center field, and Xander Bogaerts’ playing time in the 2013 playoffs.

Quick update on Anderson Espinoza (RHP):

Just kidding

High-A Salem: Michael Kopech (RHP)

While the move bolstered a rotation that desperately needed help, the acquisition of Drew Pomeranz at the expense of Anderson Espinoza was a tough pill to swallow for many Sox fans. Here’s hoping those Pedro Martinez comparisons don’t make this look like an all-time dumb trade by Dombrowski. Either way, we now turn our attention to two new pitchers for fans to salivate over as they trek through the farm system. The first is this year’s first-round pick, Jason Groome, who just signed a $3.65 million tender with the team and is headed to the Gulf Coast League to begin his career.

The second is Michael Kopech, who threw 105 MPH in a game at High-A Salem last week. While one pitch obviously isn’t what made Dombrowski comfortable to surrender Espino—wait. 105 MPH?

Yep. Kopech, the 20-year old right-hander taken in the first round in 2014 was clocked on multiple radar guns with a pitch harder than any thrown in the majors this season, save for one thrown by Aroldis Chapman on Monday night. Yikes.

Kopech missed the first couple months of the season with a broken bone in his hand suffered in an altercation with a teammate. And already has a 50-game suspension for a banned stimulant under his belt from last season. So, clearly, he’s hit some speed bumps since being drafted. But the kid can throw.

Kopech made a single start with Short Season A Lowell, going 4.2 innings without allowing a run, before being promoted to High-A Salem. There, he has made three starts totaling 14 innings, striking out 23 and just one earned run. While he ended up taking the loss, Kopech struck out nine in a five-inning performance Monday night.

Oh, and did I mention he has piercing blue eyes and serious flow, a la Noah Syndergaard? What’s that? That’s a weird thing to mention? Fine.

Throwing hard doesn’t guarantee success. Nor do facial features. But if Kopech can stay in control — on and off the mound — he’ll very soon be filling the void left by Espinoza as the Red Sox’ prized pitching prospect.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com