Top Play (WPA): The Astros did all of their damage with the long ball, as they took Red Sox starter Joe Kelly deep three times. Preston Tucker, a former seventh-round draft pick out of Florida with a sweet lefty swing, launched a towering two-run homer in the fifth (+.124), which put Houston up 4-0. Tucker also homered in the first inning to deep left-center field (+.106), and somewhere in between, Evan Gattis connected with a line-drive shot over the short porch in left (+.110). The Astros lead the majors in home runs, and Kelly was not the man to slow them down.

Bottom Play (WPA): The Red Sox had chances in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, with multiple runners on base and less than two outs. In the fifth, Mike Napoli chopped into a slow-developing double play that ended a first and second, one out rally (-.112). In the sixth, Hanley Ramirez chased a low-and-away slider to strikeout with runners on second and third and one out (-.105). And in the seventh, with runners at first and second with no outs, Blake Swihart bunted a sacrifice attempt back to the pitcher, who easily nabbed the lead runner, Shane Victorino, at third base (-.088).

Key Moment: Some games don’t really have key moments, at least not ones that are easily discernible. They just sort of happen, a series of discrete events all pointing, at least retrospectively, toward the eventual winner. This may have been one of those games. That said, if I gotta pick (and I do!), Tucker’s second home run probably works here. It wasn’t the worst pitch by Kelly — ahh, who am I kidding, it was a pretty bad pitch, a 93 mile-per-hour 1-0 fastball that caught too much plate, ending up in one of Tucker’s apparent wheelhouses. But in Kelly’s defense, sometimes hitters miss those pitches, fouling them back or swinging right through them or popping them straight up. Tucker didn’t, and when the ball finally landed, the Astros had a 4-0 lead.

Trend to Watch: Xander Bogaerts. If you’re feeling down about this once promising season that’s gone off the tracks, just watch Bogaerts. He didn’t do anything particularly out of the ordinary last night — he went the opposite way for an RBI hit and he made a couple of solid defensive plays, both things that are becoming the norm with Bogaerts. He still has flaws in his game, like his lack of home run power and his walk rate, but once you realize that he doesn’t turn 23 until October, that he’s hitting .311 and playing solid defense at short, and that both his power and patience should improve with age, you may find yourself starting to get really excited. It can help distract you from all the losing.

Coming Next: Unfortunately, another game with the Astros. The Red Sox look to avoid the three-game series sweep in Houston, as Wade Miley takes on Lance McCullers. Miley’s been good of late, but McCullers, a 21-year-old who owns a 2.55 FIP over his first 11 major-league starts, has quickly emerged as the Astros’ ace. On Friday night the Red Sox kick-off a 10-game home stand against the Tigers, a team still trying to judge whether they’ll be buyers or sellers at the deadline.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Not surprisingly, rookie phenom Carlos Correa (.183) came up with last night’s top play.  With two men on and just one out, Correa had a veteran at-bat that placed a perfectly hit double in the right-field corner before bouncing out of play.  Jose Altuve came around to score giving the Astros the go-ahead run.   The bounce was fortuitous for the Sox because Marwin Gonzalez was held at third base but likely would have scored if the ball stayed in play.

The next best play of the night comes from Jake Marisnick (.169), which we’ll discuss below.  For the Sox, their best play of the night and the third-best play overall came from a Mookie Betts (.127) check-swing double down the first base line that drove in Alejandro De Aza and Ryan Hanigan. This gave the Red Sox a 3-1 lead and actually gave me a sense of hope for the first time in weeks while watching a game.

Bottom Play (WPA): Our bottom play of the night comes from the artist formally known as the Kung-Fu Panda (-.068).  With Hanley Ramirez at first base and the game not out of reach, Sandoval grounded into a double play, ending the top of the sixth and any hope of clawing back into the 5-3 game.

Maybe we can convince the Pirates that they need him as their replacement for the injured Josh Harrison?  Yeah, I didn’t think so either.

Key Moment: Jake Marisnick not only tripled in this contest but his stolen base in the bottom of the fifth inning was the turning point in this game.  With the young Johnson on the mound, Marisnick took off and was hit by a Hanigan throw to second base, forcing Hanley Ramirez to field the ball from deep left-field.  Two runs scored, tying up the game 3-3.  Following this unfortunate event, Johnson walked Altuve, leading to his exit from the game.  The Sox simply never recovered from this odd play, which wasn’t even the result of a very bad throw by Hanigan.

Trend to Watch: Young pitchers should continue to get chances.

Johnson’s start tonight was a good thing, not only because he is not Joe Kelly but because it gives the Red Sox a chance to start looking at what they have for 2016.  There is no sense running guys out there who are known quantities when you can put in young guys like Johnson or Henry Owens and see how they perform.

Johnson really did deserve better than his line of 4.1 IP, 4 BB, 3 K, 4 ER suggests.  Sure, his command was loose after 15 days off, but he did retire eight in a row heading into the fifth.  I think this guy has some serious staying power.

Xander Bogaerts continues to impress in July with his third consecutive two hit-game and his .400+ batting average during the month.

Coming Next: We will be forced to watch Kelly throw a baseball again tomorrow (something I was really hoping not to endure again ever) to give the remainder of the rotation some added rest.  The best I can say is look forward to some really fun trade rumors, and hopefully now that the white flag has been raised we will see more JBJ and therefore more web gems.  Let the plans for 2016 commence!

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Oddly enough, Hanley Ramirez’s two-run homer in the bottom of the seventh with David Ortiz on base takes the cake here at a whopping .419. I’m not going to go back and check, because I’m lazy, but I think that’s the highest-WPA play of the year for the Sox. Give plenty of praise to Hanley, but don’t forget the tough at-bat Ortiz put up against LHP Tony Sipp to get on base in the first place.

The next-best plays come courtesy Carlos Correa (.285) and Evan Gattis (.226), who hit back-to-back homers off of Alexi Ogando in the seventh. This was a good game, but Boston needs to fix this bullpen.

Finally, Pablo Sandoval’s RBI double to left in the sixth (.180) and Mookie Betts’ double in fifth (.135) round out the top five.

Bottom Play (WPA): In the bottom of the fifth, Xander Bogaerts came to the plate with two men on and one out. Bogaerts grounded out softly to second base, but Ryan Hanigan was off with contact at third, which was ill-advised given his lack of speed and Houston’s defensive alignment. Hanigan was out at the plate, and while Bogaerts reached first safely Hanigan’s out was still enough to register this as the worst play of the day (-.116).

Houston’s two worst plays came in the bottom of the ninth, courtesy Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus (who fouled out bunting), while Boston’s next-worst plays came in the form of Shane Victorino and Ramirez GIDPs.

Key Moment: Ramirez’s homer, for sure. This game had a very “here we go again” quality when Ogando gave up back-to-back bombs, but Ortiz and Ramirez answered the bell, as you’d hope the middle of your lineup would. Ramirez looks like an offensive force again, and if he plays defense the way he has for the past two weeks and not the way he did the first two months of the season, that contract will work out just fine.

Trend to Watch: There are a few trends here.

For starters, the Red Sox finally look like the offense we all thought we’d see at the season’s start, and that’s with Dustin Pedroia on the DL and Mike Napoli MIA. Betts, Brock Holt, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Ramirez and Sandoval all feel like real threats to do damage in any given at-bat, and contributors like Alejandro De Aza, Shane Victorino and even Ryan Hanigan all seem capable of pitching in, too. This is more like it.

#Ed had a strange start, dominating in the sense that he struck out eight Astros in just five innings but struggling in the sense that he only lasted five innings. Still five innings of one-run ball against the AL’s best team is pretty decent for a guy who was in Triple-A six weeks ago. He continues to be a hugely important addition to the rotation.

Finally, the Sox have now won seven of their last 10 games. They need to keep playing at this pace to matter, but it’s great to see nonetheless.

Coming Next: The Red Sox have today off before hosting the Marlins for two games. Wade Miley is set to face off against Dan Haren on Tuesday. Sweeping the Ms before the division-leading Yankees come to town later in the week could make the AL East race a lot more interesting in short order. We’ll see!

Photo by Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports Images

This time we’ll look at an organization that trusted in its process to field a team that currently leads the AL West. Strangely, they also measure things in Altuves. For the first time on the Weekend Preview, here are the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros – Current Record: 47-34 – Projected Record: 87-75

The Astros have raced out to best record in the American League, backed by great performances by Dallas Keuchel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Will Harris. However, George Springer’s broken wrist has taken the young outfielder onto the disabled list, forcing the Astros’ best position player out of the game for roughly six weeks. Nevertheless, the Astros have power in spades. Luis Valbuena is 17th in the league in ISO (.242) despite a .197 batting average. Chris Carter? He’s 30th in the league (.213) with a .198 average. If the Astros make good contact on anything, it’s going a long, long way.

Probables

Dan Straily vs. Justin Masterson, Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Straily first appeared on most everyone’s radar back when he was in the Athletics’ system and striking out 11 batters per nine innings. He’s yet to bring those same numbers to the bigs, as he’s scuffled for most of his major league career. Straily is hurt by the fact that he walks a lot of batters and doesn’t get grounders so his defense can’t help him out. Earlier in his major league career, he allowed too much contact and didn’t get enough whiffs. Now the swinging strikes are trending back up, and batters are making much less contact in the zone than they used to. He’s been solid in the minors this year, and with Brett Oberholtzer going on the DL, he’ll get a chance to stick in the rotation with his start on Friday.

Justin Masterson still throws slow fastballs. Sure, he had a bit of an improvement in his first start back against the Rays, but that fastball barely reached 91. It would help if he could get whiffs despite the lack of velocity, but his swinging strike percentage is the lowest of his career. Contact has spiked, he can’t throw first pitch strikes, and he still walks too many guys. He’s a time bomb. One can only hope he’s on a different team when he goes off.

Collin McHugh vs. Clay Buchholz, July 4th, 1:35 p.m. EDT

McHugh, like Masterson above, has a pretty meh fastball. It doesn’t have amazing velo and it’s as flat as a board. However, he gets his strikeouts from all of the other pitches he uses, such as his fantastic slider. He’ll use it to attack both right- and left-handed handed batters and get out in front of them, as he gets a first-pitch strike over 60% of the time. After a season in which he kept the ball in the park with regularity, McHugh has had some trouble with the homer this year, as he’s given up 1.14 of them per nine innings. His peripherals are fine, but McHugh’s has regressed since last year.

The ERA just continues to plummet for Clay Buchholz. In April, he had a 5.76 ERA. Now, it’s 3.48, and his 2.66 FIP says he’s pitched far, far better than what that shows. He’s gotten less contact on his pitches, especially his fantastic changeup, which almost never stays in the zone, but batters still swing and miss anyway. Speaking of whiffs, he’s getting the most since his first season in the bigs, and he’s back to getting grounders 50% of the time. This Clay could be here to stay.

Lance McCullers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, May 10th, 1:35 p.m. EDT

McCullers is an Astros farm product who got rave reviews on his curveball in the minors, which is undoubtedly nasty. He’s got a good two-seamer to throw off hitters from his flat four-seam fastball, and a changeup that made the jump from fringy to legitimate offering, giving him three good pitches with which to go after MLB hitters. However, what may torpedo a good rookie year is his command. His 3.04 BB/9 is decent, but if it creeps up to the 4.2 marks he had in the minors, he’s gonna have a rough going of it in the majors. Despite those fears, he’s still racked up a 2.19 ERA and a 2.66 FIP, so he’s done well. There’s just some reason to worry going forward.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s main issue lately was tipping his pitches while in the stretch. He looked good against Toronto, but still got hit hard pitching from the stretch, and that seemed related to his tipping problems. Nevertheless, he’s been great in the majors so far this season, giving the Red Sox some much needed talent in the rotation. This start against the Astros and the next one against the Yankees will be his toughest yet, and if he can get past those, he’ll be one of the Sox’ best pitchers – if not players – going forward.

Opposing Lineup

With Springer out, the Astros will need to reshuffle their lineup, but that doesn’t make the top of their starting nine any less imposing.

Jose Altuve – 2B – R – .298/.342/.421, .273 TAv

Carlos Correa – SS – R – .287/.309/.543, .295 TAv

Evan Gattis – DH – R – .239/.269/.446, .260 TAv

Luis Valbuena – 3B – L – .197/.277/.439, .267 TAv

Chris Carter – 1B – R – .198/.314/.411, .271 TAv

Colby Rasmus – LF – L – .247/.321/.485, .301 TAv

Preston Tucker – RF – L – .243/.312/.414, .261 TAv

Domingo Santana- CF – R – .243/.300/.459, .256 TAv (in 40 PA)

Jason Castro – C – L – .214/.277/.375, .235 TAv

There’s a lot of power in this lineup, even without their star right fielder. Colby Rasmus has quietly had a very solid year, and doesn’t even have a platoon split to be seen despite being a left-handed hitter. However, of all the players above, Carlos Correa might be the one to fear the most. He’s hitting everything very hard and very far. Exit velos are through the roof. He’s a dangerous one.

Recap

The Sox have won five of their last seven games, and the Astros have won four straight and are coming off a series sweep against Kansas City. Both teams are hot, and if the Red Sox can somehow shut down the Astros’ power bats, they’ll stand a chance against the best of the AL West.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images