Scott got his innings in, all 35.2 of them. Being at the bottom of the bullpen depth chart isn’t exactly thrilling, but as one of the very few left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster, Scott had a pretty solid spot for most of the season. He would bounce back and forth a couple times over the rest of the season, but Scott would still getting southpaws out at a mostly acceptable rate. Right-handed batters, though, that was a different story entirely.

What Went Right

Scott was still a menace to anything left-handed. He held them to a stellar .119/.224/.303 line in over 20 innings, turning him into the most effective reliever on the team against left-handed batters, and that even includes Craig Kimbrel, patron saint of remarkably absurd reliever stats. Scott had his fair share of escapes as well, including this high-wire act in Cleveland where he struck out Jay Bruce and Bradley Zimmer to preserve the tie:

Being a LOOGY isn’t the flashiest thing, but they get their 15 seconds of fame just like everyone else.

What Went Wrong

Everything that wasn’t under the “versus L” split. Right-handed hitters had his number, posting a .814 OPS against the southpaw, and he gave up four home runs in just 15 innings of pitching to righties. It was bad. But don’t worry, it gets worse, because his home/road splits are objectively horrifying.

Cover your kids’ eyes before reading the rest of this segment. It’s not for children nor the faint of heart.

At home, he held all hitters to a .427 OPS. That’s pretty good! On the road, opposing batters lit him up, as he allowed 5 homers in just 15.2 innings and was pinned to a .927 OPS. That’s pretty bad! Thing is, he was still solid against lefties on the road, which speaks to how awful he truly was when there was no same-side advantage working in his favor. I could go on but the theme here is blatantly obvious: if it wasn’t a left-handed hitter, Scott was getting destroyed. They are his hard counters.

What To Expect

As optimistic as I was last year, it’s hard to think he’ll be much more than the second lefty in the bullpen. He has a major home run issue, and his batted ball profile suggests it won’t change much, especially when it comes to right-handed hitters. Scott wasn’t often misused in 2017, and it’s hard to see him being put in worse situations in 2018, seeing how dramatic his splits were. If he can keep the ball from leaving the park so much, he’ll stick around a lot longer than any of use expect.

Photo by Eric Hartline — USA TODAY Sports

So the Red Sox are going for it. Like really going for it, and that deal plus that thought process makes an argument for further trades. We knew the Red Sox needed starting pitching before the Hill trade and now they’ve dealt away Aaron Wilkerson, a Triple-A starter widely thought of as a possibility to join the major league rotation, so that need is that much stronger. It’s undeniable the Red Sox need a better starter, maybe even two better starters if Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t going to help this season. The problem is finding them. They don’t seem to exist out on the market, so instead, Dombrowski should focus on improving the team in a different way: fix left field.

But left field isn’t broken! No, it’s not, but it sort of is. The Red Sox have received good production from left field so far this season, which is strange because if you look at the players they’ve used so far, that might surprise you. To date the most plate appearances have been taken by Brock Holt, who isn’t what you’d call an ideal left fielder. He’s been fine out there for the most part, but when Holt is starting at a position it prevents him from roving around and utilizing the vast array of skills he possesses to the team’s highest and best benefit. Put it this way. Using Holt as a starting left fielder turns an asset into a mediocre left fielder.

Using Holt as a starting left fielder turns an asset into a mediocre left fielder.

So the Red Sox probably need to find someone else. Chris Young was fantastic against both lefties and, bizarrely, against righties this season. Maybe that will continue when he comes back from the Disabled List, but considering he has 5,000 plate appearances in his career that say he’s good at hitting lefties but lousy at hitting righties, it’s probably not best to bet on Chris Young hitting like Chris Young against lefties against righties (got that?) going forward. After Young, Blake Swihart (injured), Rusney Castillo (Triple-A), Ryan LaMarre (DFA’d), and Bryce Brentz (place holder) have played there. None of those guys should be starting in left field on a playoff team.

The team has a .768 OPS from their left fielders this season, and that’s 12th in baseball, which is pretty good. But, sad emoji, that’s likely unrepeatable with the talent they have on-hand in the second half of the season. Brentz has hit since getting called up, something he’s not done in Triple-A, and likely won’t continue to do in the majors with more at-bats. Like Holt, asking Young to start every day is probably asking for failure. So it seems a safe bet that over the second half of the season the Red Sox will experience a downturn in production from left field if they do not make any changes to their current personnel. The Red Sox need a new, better, regular left fielder.

However, they need pitching more. And last year’s first round draft pick, Andrew Beintendi, looks like the real deal in Double-A so far and there’s real hope he can be the long-term solution in left field for the Red Sox as soon as next season, or, maybe more realistically, the one after. They don’t want to acquire a Ryan Braun who would then block Benintendi, or a similar player who would have a long term deal. They also need pitching badly. Did I mention that? They need pitching very badly.

Thing is, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of impact starting pitching available on the trade market, and that means if a good pitcher is going to come to Boston, he’s going to need to be pried out of his current home. You know those “make me move” offers you see sometimes on real estate websites. Dombrowski is going to have to make some GM an offer he can’t refuse and that offer is almost certainly not going to be a good one for the Red Sox.

Perhaps making minor moves to prop up the team’s starting pitching depth makes sense if it comes with a bigger, better move at a different position of need, like say, left field.

Maybe there is a deal to be had that doesn’t cripple the organization. Maybe there’s something out there that makes sense given all the factors at play. If so I’m sure Dombrowski will find it, but if not, and [spoiler!] I suspect not, perhaps making minor moves to prop up the team’s starting pitching depth makes sense if it comes with a bigger, better move at a different position of need, like say, left field.

The name that springs to mind here is Carlos Gonzalez. He’s enjoying a strong season in Colorado, hitting .319/.368/.556 with 18 homers. The home/road splits are, as always with Rockies players, daunting, but there’s reason to believe once the player gets out of the thin Colorado air entirely he’ll get more used to it and the numbers will positively reflect that. Gonzalez has a year after this season left on his deal and Boston could handle the $20 million hit in 2017. He could be kept to win next year or dealt after this season to help replenish the hit to the minors his acquisition would make. They could make that decision based on their desire to go with Benintendi, or to give him more seasoning in the minors, but ether way it gives the team flexibility and depth in case of injury as well as a serious upgrade in left field. Gonzalez would likely cost a good prospect, but the Red Sox have those to give in the service of winning with David Ortiz in 2016.

Another name to throw out there is Jay Bruce. Bruce is enjoying nice bounce-back season after a few years in the proverbial wilderness, hitting .268/.317/.546 with 18 homers for sad-sack Cincinnati. Bruce isn’t quite the hitter or fielder Gonzalez is, but he’s cheaper (the remainder of $12.5 million this season and a team option for $13 million in 2017) and would likely not cost as much to acquire. Both Bruce and Gonzalez are left handed so, should it be necessary to give them a day off, Chris Young could perfectly spell them against a left-hander now and again.

The Red Sox could get on alright without either of these or countless other guys, but the issue is bang for the buck. A good starter is going to cost a tremendous amount in this trade market, but an upgrade in left field could be as impactful and a lot cheaper. Cheaper doesn’t just mean more money for the team, it means holding on to more and better prospects, something that will help the team both now as they try to win with David Ortiz, and as they move into the post-Ortiz era. So win now, Dave Dombrowski. And yes the Red Sox badly need starting pitching, but mostly they need increased production. A 12-10 win is, after all, still a win.

Photo by Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports Images

The real issue is timing. By the time Castillo proves to be a problem, it’ll be too late to do anything about it. The off-season is the time when you can fix holes in the roster (recall: Price, David), but the season is the time when you create those holes. The time between the two is the  potentially bad part. Brutal how that works. The Red Sox outfield situation is a good example, which works well for this article considering that’s kinda what this article is about. The outfield market is bizarrely robust at the moment, featuring above average hitters such as ex-Red Sock Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton, and only recently losing Alex Gordon who re-signed with the Royals for almost the exact dollar figure the Red Sox gave to Rusney Castillo, albeit over a shorter term. Despite that potential production sitting on the market, the Red Sox have shown no interest in any of those players even at a potentially reduced price or number of seasons.

Sounds strange, but there are good reasons for it. The first is Castillo’s contract, which will pay him between $11 million and $12 million per season through at least the 2019 season (if he opts out) and likely a few seasons beyond. The second reason is his baseball-playing ability, which presumably exists. So he’s going to start the season in left field. The Red Sox have spent a lot of money on the 2016 roster however, and with this being David Ortiz’s last season, they are, as the kids say, all in. So what happens if Castillo continues being Castillo, i.e. he performs just slightly above replacement level?

Last year Castillo hit .253/.288/.359. This was not good, but 2015 is not the same offensive environment as 2005, so it wasn’t an utter disaster either. Various WAR metrics had Castillo worth just below one win in 2015, and that was in 289 PAs, so less than half a season’s worth of playing time. If Castillo starts in left all season long and hits and plays defense like he did last season, he’ll likely be worth just under two wins. That isn’t great, but it’s acceptable. A step forward from him would push him towards three wins which would be, considering last year and his time in Pawtucket, pretty fantastic.

The slightest slip up in production on either side of the ball from Castillo and we’re looking at a player subtracting from the team rather than adding to it.

Still, with a slash line like that, we’re not dealing with much of a margin for error. The slightest slip up in production on either side of the ball from Castillo and we’re looking at a player subtracting from the team rather than adding to it. So, suppose that’s what happens. Obviously Cespedes and Upton won’t be waiting on the free-agent market to take his spot. The Red Sox will be looking at one of two options; either move someone already in the organization from the bench or the minors to left field or make a trade for an outfielder.

The Red Sox have signed Chris Young to be their fourth outfielder and if Castillo isn’t cutting it after a few months, the job could fall to him, at least temporarily until the team figures out something better. But Young has major platoon issues, so he’s not an ideal season-long fit. Beyond him, there’s always Brock Holt, who is capable of stepping in and playing left if need be. We know this because left field is a baseball position and Holt can play all of the baseball positions. The problem with that is Holt isn’t a long-term solution in left, and more germane to next season, Holt will be counted on to back up most of the infielders. He can’t play left and and man an infield position at the same time. I’m pretty sure he can’t, anyway.

So there don’t appear to be any season-long solutions on the major league roster. This isn’t surprising but it does mean we have to look further down into the minor leagues, and looking in the Red Sox farm system for outfield help is like looking in a 20-something bachelor’s refrigerator for fresh vegetables. You can look but you’re not going to find anything because it’s just not there.

I suppose that’s not entirely fair. There is still Bryce Brentz. The problem with Brentz is he’ll be 28 this season and hasn’t done anything to distinguish himself in Triple-A over the last two seasons if you don’t count shooting himself in the leg with a gun, and I do not count that.

The dark horse here is Andrew Benintendi, who some scouts see as a player who could rise very quickly through the Red Sox system due to his age when drafted, experience as a college player and overall skill set. That’s great, but it’s not something to plan around. You don’t make organizational plans that depend on 22-year-olds with no experience above Single-A showing up and impacting the major league team. It could happen, but even if it did, it wouldn’t be until towards the end of the season (think Michael Conforto of the Mets).

That brings us to the trade market, and the trade market might be harder to predict than the stock of a player like Benintendi. We can look now and see who might be available, but things change once the season starts and teams start to win games. So maybe the best barometer of who might be available is to look at the players who will reach free agency following the 2016 season. There’s a lot of players of course, so I’ll summarize: yuck. Perhaps the easiest name to see as available is Jay Bruce of the Reds. The Reds look to be terrible in 2016 so they’ll likely be happy to move anything not nailed down. Bruce is coming off of a poor couple seasons in Cincinnati, but he’s still youngish (29) and potentially worthwhile… maybe? Beyond him… more dots. Josh Reddick? Alejandro De Aza? You can already see the problem here. That doesn’t mean there won’t be anyone worth dealing for, just that from where we sit now it doesn’t look all that promising.

The good news for the Red Sox, if there is any good news here for the Red Sox, is that Castillo mediocrity won’t be debilitating.

The good news for the Red Sox, if there is any good news here for the Red Sox, is that Castillo mediocrity won’t be debilitating. That’s not to say you wouldn’t rather have Justin Upton, because you would really really rather have Justin Upton, but clearly that isn’t happening. FanGraphs’ Steamer projections have Castillo hitting .270/.313/.403 this season, and if you accept that as a baseline of offensive production and move his defense from below to above average, that puts him into plus territory overall. In 2015 the league average left fielder hit .256/.319/.411, so Castillo doesn’t project to be actually good, but at least he shouldn’t be bad enough to sink the team. Taking this a step further, the fact that the Red Sox have devoted so much time and money to the 2016 team and yet aren’t attempting to replace Castillo has to count for something as well. Right? Probably? Let’s go with that.

Ultimately, Castillo hasn’t played much major league baseball, but he’s played enough to warrant skepticism that he’ll ever show much beyond production beyond a glorified fourth outfielder. Fortunately, the Red Sox should have a deep enough roster that they can give him the chance to develop further, and if he fails to capitalize on that chance there are other options. Not necessarily good ones, but for now at least, that’s a problem to tackle later.

Photo by Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images