“Imagine a…”

“Let me stop you right there.”

The Red Sox snagged d’Arnaud off waivers from the Atlanta Braves in the dead of night during a late April injury blizzard. Dustin Pedroia was having trouble with his knees, as was Pablo Sandoval who, it turned out, was also terrible. Brock Holt’s vertigo prevented him from helping out and Josh Rutledge was still in Triple-A recovering from a hamstring strain sustained while participating in ham-on-a-string exercises (unrelated) during Spring Training. All of a sudden, the Red Sox had no middle infielders they could play after Xander Bogaerts but, more importantly, they had no middle infielders they could not play. The Red Sox were all of a sudden a baseball team without this most important of commodities. Who was going to sit in the dugout, chat to nobody about things, and chew sunflower seeds?

Of course, the answer to their injury epidemic is obvious in retrospect: surgically remove the legs of every infielder on the roster and auction off the severed limbs for charity. Just think how one of Brock Holt’s legs would look in a plastic case adorned with a Red Sox logo up on your mantle? It’d be magnificent, and the Jimmy Fund would make a fortune. Strangely, that most clear of answers seemed to elude everyone, so, in lieu of that, the Red Sox went waiver wire dumpster diving to solve their problems. They came across some pretty sweet cardboard boxes, a few dead fish, Chase d’Arnaud, and bag of half-eaten cat crunchies.

You might not expect much of anyone acquired in such a manner, and certainly d’Arnaud was no different from those low expectations, but boy howdy he delivered on each and every low expectation. The Red Sox called on d’Arnaud during an early May game against the Twins. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading Minnesota 7-6, but the Red Sox quickly gained a small and precarious lead by scoring eight runs. After an infield single by Dustin Pedroia, manager John Farrell, looking down the barrel of a gun, turned to his best player.

“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he probably didn’t ever shout.

“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-hitter.

d’Arnaud took his place at first base and immediately began dancing dangerously off the bag. Twins pitcher Justin Haley threw over to first once, twice, three times, desperate to preserve the eight-run deficit for what he felt would be the Twins inevitable comeback during the bottom of the inning. But d’Arnaud’s wild dancing frustrated him. He threw over again and again and again and again, but each time d’Arnaud dove back just ahead of the tag. After Haley’s last throw, Twins first baseman Joe Mauer trotted over to Haley. “The kid’s just too good,” said Mauer. “Focus on the batter.”

“I can’t,” replied Haley. “I’m just too flummoxed. I’m going to have to throw a really bad pitch.”

“Well, uh, okay,” said Mauer, and handed Haley the ball. Haley’s next pitch was a meatball. Xander Bogaerts hit it for a triple, scoring Mookie Betts and d’Arnaud all the way from first, and extending the Red Sox lead to a comfortable 10 runs. The Red Sox were just able to hold on in the bottom of the inning. They won 17-6, all thanks to Chase d’Arnaud.

You might think that after such a performance the Red Sox might have started d’Arnaud, but they did not. Asked about it by reporters, manager John Farrell winked and grinned. “I like to keep my secret weapons where I can use them when I need them,” he said. Later that day against the Brewers, Farrell needed his secret once more. Trailing 6-1 in the top of the fifth inning, Farrell tried something radical. “This isn’t working,” he reportedly whispered to himself. “Think, John. Dammit, you’ve got to think!” With one out and the pitcher due up, it suddenly hit Farrell like a ton of bricks: d’Arnaud!

“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he definitely didn’t ever say.

“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-runner.

With d’Arnaud running up the steps, Farrell stopped him. “You’re going to need this,” he said, handing him a broom. “Was that supposed to be a bat?” d’Arnaud asked? “You guessed it,” chuckled Farrell. “I’m really not very good at this managing thing.” Thus inspired d’Arnaud stepped to the plate against possibly the best pitcher in the history of baseball, Wily Peralta.

Peralta’s first pitch was a 110 mph fastball on the corner. “Strike one!” shouted the umpire. His second pitch was a 120 mph fastball on the inside corner. “Strike two!” shouted the umpire. d’Arnaud stepped out of the box. He realized what he was up against. He knew how nobody had ever faced a more perilous situation in baseball, but he was determined. He cocked his bat and stood there watching as a 99 mph curveball draped itself around the plate. “Ball one,” said the umpire. Now d’Arnaud was ready. He stared out at Peralta who stared back, both knowing what was at stake, perhaps the most important fifth inning at-bat by non-rivals from different leagues in early May in baseball history.

Peralta reared back and fired. d’Arnaud took a mighty swing and hit a weak grounder up the middle. The second baseman fielded the ball, but his heart was heavy when he did, because he knew he could never catch d’Arnaud. Crossing the first base bag, d’Arnaud slowed and stopped before the enormity, the sheer gravity of what he’d done struck him. As his team mates raced from the dugout to mob him and the loudspeakers blared the theme to The Natural, d’Arnaud knelt gently in the grass, a single tear falling from his face. Somewhere, Robert Redford muttered, “No, that’s perfect,” as d’Arnaud was lifted and carried around the field by his teammates.

The next inning they took him out for Fernando Abad. That would be the last time d’Arnaud stepped on a playing field for the Boston Red Sox. Asked about his decision to release d’Arnaud, Team President Dave Dombrowski said, “When you love something, set it free.”

But I digress. On to his season recap!

What Went Right

He got an infield single in his only Red Sox at-bat.

What Went Wrong

Whatever.

What To Expect

Nothing.

Thanks for reading.

Photo by Jeff Hanisch — USA TODAY Sports

With all that in mind, I think we should recognize that Farrell was generally pretty decent at his job, especially when compared to others. Not great, but simply good. Everything that went wrong this year and in previous years was not directly Farrell’s fault, and won’t necessarily be corrected by hiring a new manager. Thinking otherwise is not productive. While Red Sox fans (and perhaps even the players, coaches and front office members) hope the next manager is better than Farrell, he could easily be worse. Dave Dombrowski needs to tread carefully as he hires his first manager. All of the blame that Farrell has soaked up the last few years will start to trickle into Dombrowski’s suite if the next manager stumbles.

The discussion about possible candidates for the Red Sox’s managerial vacancy are in full swing. After all, Farrell was fired a whole 24-hours ago. Things move fast. I am sure you have seen lists of names that people feel should be considered. You can even wager your hard earned cash dollars on who it will be. Of course you can. Maybe we should be monitoring Dombrowski’s bookie. Jokes aside, and at the risk of repeating parts of your Twitter feed, here are the names I have seen/heard as suggestions for the Red Sox’s job opening (in no particular order):

That’s 16 names, and I probably missed a name or two that has been floated out there. Interestingly, there appears to be consensus on a few names. As an example, spend an hour on Twitter and it will seem as though Alex Cora already has this job. People (including credible ones) are suggesting Cora is a perfect fit. That is strong. Of course he could be, but it is not at all clear to me what evidence is being used to support this idea. There are certainly nice things being said about Cora, and it is assumed that he embraces the analytical  side of in-game tactics given his time in Houston, but he only has one year of big league coaching experience and hasn’t had to deal with the media. Don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to make a case against Cora – I think he would be a fine manager – nor am I saying that years of major league managing experience and media training are critical attributes. I am just surprised by how quickly and confidently people have jumped to fit Cora for a(nother) Red Sox uniform. If I recall correctly, five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Any candidate is going to have a difficult job to do in Boston. An obligatory mention of the tough media market goes here. After getting past the media everyday, the clubhouse has three hard-headed veterans in Dustin Pedroia, David Price, and Chris Sale, and a group of young players (i.e., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) who are expected to bounce back from underperformance on offense in 2017 and take on a more defined leadership role. The veterans can make life very hard for a new manager who does things in a way that goes against their preferences, and there is no way any more slippage in performance from the young core is going to be tolerated.

Of course, the young guys could bounce back for no other reason than natural regression, which might push them to be more vocal in the clubhouse and make the new manager look like a genius, so that is a perk. There is also the fact that the Red Sox are a team with money, being run by Dave Dombrowski. He will go get players he wants. Add a Jake Arrieta to the rotation, along with an extra helping of slugging to the lineup (e.g., J.D. Martinez, Carlos Santana, Joey Votto [swoooon]) and you have the makings of an upper-90s win total stew going, and a stronger chance at winning a postseason series or two – or three.

For me, the best candidate will be someone who is: (1) receptive to and implements analytically-driven strategies, (2) a strong and clear communicator, (3) able to work with and respects young players’ development, and (4) humble and admits mistakes. This set of characteristics likely rules out a few names from the table above (i.e., Ausmus, Matheny, Bowa, Gardenhire). But the reality is that none of us know much of anything about the managerial characteristics of most of the guys in the table above. We are just guessing and trying to convince ourselves that our personal preference will be better than Farrell. Chances are, barring another Bobby V-esque disaster, we will be going through a similar exercise again in three-to-five years.

Photo by Shanna Lockwood – USA TODAY Sports

It’s now been three days since the Red Sox lost the series we all expected them to lose, and we’ve all had some time to reminisce on what went right, what went wrong, and that Rafael Devers inside-the-park home run. Brett Cowett summed up the ALDS pretty thoroughly, so we won’t go there again, and if you really want to find more obituaries, I’m sure Dan Shaughnessy wrote a reasonable, not-at-all-incendiary one that you can find somewhere. So let’s talk about what comes next.

There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

On the surface, this Red Sox team seems pretty set. They have one of the more enviable rosters in the league, full of young stars on affordable contracts. They have all the money in the world and from all accounts aren’t going to pay the luxury tax any mind when it comes to crafting an offseason approach. They won 93 games for the second straight year and have reason to believe that trotting out the exact same roster next year would net them even more than that. There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

With that said, the Red Sox certainly have some question marks. An argument can – and probably will – be made about about how significant those question marks are, but they’re still question marks nonetheless. The fact of the matter is that this is a young, talented team that’s been significantly overwhelmed in the first round of the playoffs for two straight years. While I personally feel that we’re not there quite yet, an underwhelming ALDS appearance is going to stop being good enough pretty soon. It’s the double-edged sword of playing in Boston – you’re going to get your chances to play on a winning team, but first-round exits can’t be the status quo for long. So what are the biggest questions for this team, in this window?

John Farrell

This will more than likely be the first issue the team addresses, as people seem to expect a decision about his fate as early as the end of this week. Last year, Dombrowski came out almost immediately after the team’s playoff exit and reaffirmed that Farrell was the guy, so there’s no reason to think the team will dilly-dally with a decision this time around.

The decision with Farrell, in my opinion, isn’t nearly as cut-and-dry as people want to make it out to be. He’s not the reason they’re not winning World Series titles. He’s a capable manager and does seem to generally have the support of the clubhouse – or at least its more vocal leaders. Bobby Valentine found out what happens when Dustin Pedroia wants you fired, and Pedroia’s post-game quotes about Farrell were generally supportive.

On the other hand, Deven Marrero started a playoff game and Brandon Workman had an at-bat in the 2013 World Series. If you want to see what another manager brings to the table, I don’t blame you.

Hanley Ramirez 

My guess is that his ALDS performance probably helped him regain some trust, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if his roster security isn’t set in stone. He’s not a first baseman; you know that, I know that, and the Red Sox know that. He deserves kudos for giving it more of a shot than he gave left field, but it’s just not a feasible fit going forward. His .253 TAv was the worst of his career, as was his .242 batting average. His wOBA, wRC+ and ISO all cratered as well. He’s owed 22 million dollars next season, which makes him especially difficult to trade. The best Red Sox lineup probably doesn’t include him anymore. Maybe he has a bounce-back year next season – people thought he was cooked after his abysmal 2015 campaign – but the shoulder issues keep cropping up. The Red Sox can’t afford to waste a power position like DH or 1B on someone who can no longer hit for power, which brings me to…

First Base

This is what I view as the most interesting on-field dilemma the Red Sox have to face this offseason. The pragmatic approach says resign Mitch Moreland, and quite honestly, I don’t hate it. Moreland was excellent when healthy this year, and could be retained for a fraction of what the other options represent. But making the cost-efficient, practical signing is to Dave Dombrowksi what using Craig Kimbrel in non-traditional save situations is to John Farrell – it’s just not going to happen. There are dingers to be bought, and Dave is surely not interested in hearing about how the Red Sox are the worst power-hitting team in the league all next summer. Here’s your obligatory Giancarlo Stanton mention, because you just might as well get used to it now. Eric Hosmer will be attached to the team’s hip, and Joey Votto presents an intriguing option in the sense that he is 1. a good first baseman and 2. that’s it. Good first basemen, regardless of feasibility, will be linked to the Red Sox all winter, solely because Dave Dombrowski runs this team and has a few young, talented outfielders to burn. The team clearly needs some power hitting, and where or who it comes from figures to be the team’s biggest winter storyline.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

First there was the almost immediate injury to Eduardo Nunez who, it seems, has had his last plate appearance as a member of the Boston Red Sox. After hitting a ground ball his leg gave out on him and he collapsed half way up the first base line. He had to be carried off the field. It was sad and dispiriting to watch. Then the Astros started hitting homers. That was also sad and dispiriting to watch. The Red Sox came back and tied the game, but never got a lead, and soon after Sale gave the lead back and then the back of the bullpen got involved and that’s about where you realized there was hockey or football on. 

When watching a performance like that where one team completely outclasses the other, you would be forgiven for assuming the series is over after one game. It isn’t, it only feels that way. But some things are going to have to change and change quickly for us to reach the end of this series with anything but a Houston sweep. 

Go back in time before Thursday’s game. If the Astros are to be beaten by this year’s Red Sox, we say to each other before the first pitch of Game One, several things have to go the Red Sox way. First, Boston’s bullpen, a stronger one than Houston possesses, needs to play a prominent role. The more innings thrown by David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, and maybe/probably Carson Smith, the better Boston’s chances to win. To that end, Boston’s manager, John Farrell, needs to be quick on the trigger. When a pitcher shows any signs of tiring or of simply not having it that day, Farrell needs to make a change. There is no time for starters to work through something. Farrell needs to be quick and proactive to stop potential damage from happening on the field. Further, the Red Sox will need some hitter(s) to take charge. Maybe Mookie can find that power stroke. Maybe Moreland gets silly hot. Maybe Hanley’s shoulder magically heals. Doesn’t matter who. It only matters if. So those are the three things: the pen, Farrell, and Boston’s hitters, and they all need to happen because the Astros are a better team. 

So, how did all that work in the first game? First, Chris Sale didn’t have it. That was clear after the first inning when he gave up two solo homers. It was even clearer when he gave up two more runs in the fourth inning on three hard hit balls. Farrell’s response was to stick with Sale in the fifth. Sale came out in the fifth and gave up a third solo homer. It was now 5-2 and yet, after the Sox went down 1-2-3, there was Sale out on the mound again in the sixth inning. Farrell failed to understand the gravity of the moment and stuck with his ace in the fifth and it cost him a run. Then he did it again in the sixth, and it cost him two more runs. As it turned out, he didn’t have that many runs to give away.

When Farrell finally came to get Sale with two runners on and no outs in the sixth, it was well past too late. The Astros’ chances of winning were already over 90 percent. But then Farrell proved he still didn’t grasp the importance of what was left of the game by bringing in Joe Kelly. Kelly promptly gave up a single, struck out Marwin Gonzalez on a beautiful full-count changeup, then gave up a two-run single to Brian McCann and that was, for all intents and purposes, the ballgame. Kelly was a bad choice because, despite the 100 mph fastball, he isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s not really any kind of pitcher, truthfully, but especially not a strikeout pitcher who could get the team out of that inning without any further damage and preserve whatever was left of the Red Sox’ chances. That was a prime spot for David Price, or, if Price wasn’t ready yet, Addison Reed followed by Price. The Red Sox needed to exit that inning without making things worse and Kelly was a poor choice as a tool to reach that outcome. The fact that he failed only underscored the poor choice Farrell made.

There should be more power in that group and in the larger roster. But this season, right now, there isn’t. And against what looked like a pretty hittable Justin Verlander, the Red Sox came up small.

Then there was the Red Sox offense. This is the team we’ve been watching all season long so it should come as no surprise that they walked a bit and singled up a storm, but the extra base hits were few and far between. While the Astros were hitting the ball into and over the wall, the Red Sox were rounding first, clapping, and jogging back to hope for three more so they could score. I’m still not sure if this is some sort of systemic problem, or if it’s just a bad season in the power department. It’s been well-catalogued that just about every important hitter took a step back (and often more than that) in the power department. Given the ages of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, and their pedigrees, there should be more power in that group and in the larger roster. But this season, right now, there isn’t. And against what looked like a pretty hittable Justin Verlander, the Red Sox came up small.

When compared with the swing-from-their-heels Astros, who hit 97 mph fastballs over the wall when they were a few inches away from where they were supposed to go, Verlander’s high sliders looked tantalizingly hittable. But they weren’t hit. In the end, we are left with what one playoff game always leaves us with: one game’s worth of data. The Astros are an excellent hitting team, one of the greatest hitting teams we’ve seen in a long time. That’s what we saw today. But even the Astros don’t average eight runs and four homers a game. So part of this is on the Astros greatness, but part is on the Red Sox lack of greatness, or at least lack of greatness for the day, anyway. 

If the Red Sox are to win this series (or any of the games in it), John Farrell has to get far more aggressive with his bullpen, one of the few advantages Boston has in this series. If he waits until the game is mostly out of hand before using it, then the series is likely lost, short of the Red Sox offense shaking off a season’s worth of malaise and hitting like 2016 again. But in the end, John Farrell is John Farrell and David Ortiz isn’t walking through that clubhouse door. So maybe, in the end, it didn’t matter so much whether flesh-eating pandas tore down the clubhouse door prior to first pitch because, unless things change, this series was lost before it began. 

Photo by Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

The four-game series in Detroit left a bad taste in our mouths, and for some of the players, that’s a very literal statement. Apart from the anemic, flu-riddled roster that was fielded, John Farrell’s managing late in games wasn’t always proactive. A couple of those games were very winnable, yet the Red Sox lost both, and ended up winning just one of the four games against the Tigers. Most of the gripes stemmed from the loss on April 9th, which saw the Sox score five runs in the top of the 8th inning, only to give up the lead in the bottom part of the frame. So let’s take a deeper look at that.

To start off the bottom of the 8th, Heath Hembree is brought in to deal with Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera. The only other person warming in the bullpen is Robby Scott, who’s supposed to keep Tigers manager Brad Ausmus from pinch-hitting with a lefty. It’s not really needed, seeing as there’s no way in hell you’re using a bench bat over Castellanos, Cabrera, or Justin Upton.

In dominating fashion, Hembree blows through Castellanos and Cabrera, with the strikeout of Castellanos being a shining example of pitch command.

Sliders and fastballs on the black. They had a plan to attack him, and they executed it perfectly.

Now, after those two outs, Hembree struggles with Victor Martinez, and walks him. That’s not particularly bad, since V-Mart is a good hitter, and having Hembree face a guy who can bat lefty could’ve gone much worse. The issue is the next plate appearance with Justin Upton, because Hembree lost all control.

It looks like a pitiful firework. You can’t even tell what they were trying to do here, and the contrast with the Castellanos PA is striking. This was a clear sign that Hembree needed to be taken out.

At this point, the situation had escalated into a high leverage outing, and needed a good reliever. Was Craig Kimbrel up in the bullpen? No, it was still only Robby Scott that was warm, with Joe Kelly getting loose. Farrell has no choice but to put in Scott, as Tyler Collins is up next. However, since he was forced to make a move too early, Ausmus counters with Mikie Mahtook, and Mahtook doubles in the tying run. Farrell then brings in Kelly, who proceeds to load the bases, and then walks in the go-ahead run. Kelly might not have been fully warmed up, but he couldn’t even get a pitch in the lower half of the zone against any of the three batters he faced.

You can blame the players here for not performing, and that’s a legitimate gripe. Hembree’s command disappearing and Kelly being less than effective aren’t thing’s a manager can control. That’s solely on the players. But a manager can – and you can go as far to say that he’s supposed to – put his players in the best possible positions to win, and that’s what Farrell did not do here. Scott really shouldn’t be used against right-handed hitters, Kelly ended up being a human panic button, and Kimbrel was nowhere to be found.

After last year’s playoffs, managing decisions have had more light shined on them, especially when it comes to reliever use. The wildly successful way Terry Francona used Andrew Miller and Cody Allen almost demands adaptation, because being set in archaic bullpen roles is simply throwing away flexibility. But this response to not using Kimbrel is frustrating to hear:

Farrell: “There’ll be a time this season when we go to Kimbrel for four outs, but not in Game 3.”

— Brian MacPherson (@brianmacp) April 7, 2017

If each game counts the same, why wouldn’t you use him now? Sure, you don’t want to blow out your bullpen early, but that was a winnable game. Even if the decision doesn’t work out, it would’ve been better to put your best foot forward and given yourself a chance.

That’s another thing when it comes to managing – you can (and will!) make all the right decisions and still lose. That’s what happened in the final game of that Detroit series. Chris Sale pitched two outs into the 8th inning, then allowed a two-out double to Andrew Romine and walked Ian Kinsler. Farrell had the option of going to the bullpen for Castellanos, but Sale had consistently beaten him that day, and at that point, was there really an option in the bullpen you’d take over Sale? Probably not. Farrell made the right choice here, despite the go-ahead RBI single that followed. Sometimes, things just don’t work out.

Sometimes, things go better than you expected. Last night, Farrell tried to get one more out from Drew Pomeranz by having him face Chris Davis. Pomeranz jammed him on the last pitch, but Chris Davis is a very strong human, and was able to fight it off for a single. Hembree comes in, and gives up a single to Welington Castillo. This looks bad, until Hembree strikes out Trey Mancini. Schoop grounded out to third to score Davis, and Hembree got JJ Hardy to groundout. The most brilliant move here was Farrell keeping Robby Scott warm in the bullpen, preventing Buck Showalter from using Seth Smith or Hyun-Soo Kim, who are both better hitters than Mancini. Just by keeping a lefty ready, Farrell deprived a team of two good hitters during an inning where they sorely needed them. That’s good managing.

Look, I don’t like to point fingers at Farrell for everything that goes wrong. He does some things badly, yes, but improving as a manager isn’t an instantaneous or obvious thing, and seeing stuff like what he did in the Orioles game gives me hope that he’s getting there. He’s not gonna manage circles around other teams, but with the talent on this team, he usually won’t have to do that. I’m probably reading too much into a week and a half of games, but there’s some baby steps here. We’ve just got to see more of them.

Before getting to Farrell specifically, some context: during the 2016 season there were 1501 plays reviewed – 168 were initiated by the umpiring crew. This total is derived from the Baseball Savant Instant Replay Database. I will note that there are a few duplicate entries in the database shown on the Savant website, so the numbers I give here will differ slightly from those which you will find there. There was also one review at the All-Star Game but I am ignoring it. Of the 1501 reviews, 772 (51.4%) resulted in the call being overturned. The plays that get reviewed tend to be close calls: bang-bang plays at first base, tag plays where the runner bounces off the bag for a fraction of a second, home runs that just clear the wall (or don’t). The human perceptual system has limits and in these situations I suspect the umpires are really just guessing. So the coin-flip rate of overturned calls is not all that surprising. On a more positive note, having this system in place meant that 772 plays were enforced correctly, which would not have been the case four years ago.

I offered examples of plays that are likely to be challenged, but below is the actual breakdown of the play-types that were challenged by managers at least five times in 2016.

It is not too surprising that tag plays and plays at first are challenged most often by far, as they happen most frequently.

How about the Red Sox specifically? Excluding the umpire-initiated reviews, the Red Sox were involved in 93 replay reviews. John Farrell and his staff asked for a review 48 times, which was the 15th most last year and slightly above the league average. As you can see in the table above, they distributed their challenges across play types in much the same way as the rest of the league. The other 45 replay reviews that involved the Red Sox came when an opposing manager challenged a play in a game against them. Again, that was right around league average. Teams seemed to have it in for the Cubs. They endured a league-leading 69 reviews against them. Second most was the White Sox with 59. Maybe it is just an anti-Chicago thing, or maybe umpires are a mess while in the windy city.

Back to the Red Sox. When they asked for a play to be reviewed, they did not fare very well. Only 22 of their 48 challenge requests (45.8%) resulted in a call being overturned. I recognize that the video review team and coaching staff are time-limited in initiating their challenge, but I expected the advantage of having video to review would have produced better results. I suppose those dastardly limits of the human perceptual system are still affecting things; one can only do so well even with frame-by-frame access. Still, other teams did much better. The Red Sox’s overturn rate was well below league average and ranked 26^th in the game. To better see how they fit in with the rest of the league, here is a plot showing overturned percentage against the number of calls challenged.

Being in the upper-right section of this figure is ideal: you challenge a lot and you are successful. With that in mind, it looks like the Giants, Marlins, Rockies, and Rays were the best at using the replay challenge system last season. Andy Green and the Padres were the most frequent challenger, asking the umpires to check things out 57 times. Ned Yost and the Royals were below average in terms of frequency, but were the most successful, just barely edging Joe Girardi and the Yankees. The Yankees, Twins, and Mets were the least likely to ask the umps to grab the headsets, but were successful when they did; perhaps they should consider challenging more often. If they do, they should avoid getting into John Gibbons country. Gibbons and the Blue Jays challenge a lot but have by far the worst success rate.

The number of challenges a manager issues and his success rate offers a sort of binary evaluation of how managers use the system (challenge: yes/no; result: upheld/overturned), but not all challenges are made equal. Different game states may lend themselves to being more challenge-worthy and the result of the challenge could really swing an inning. Thus the value of a challenge is more than just right-or-wrong. One way to approximate the value is through the lens of run expectancy. This is something I did following the 2014 season, the first to use the replay challenge system. Win expectancy would probably be better, as leverage likely has a role in determining if a manager will challenge or not, but run expectancy gets us most of the way to determining value and is much easier to implement. With this approach, the value (in runs) of a correct call is determined by calculating the difference between a team’s run expectancy had the play remained as called on the field, and the team’s run expectancy after the result of the replay review. As such, this is only relevant for calls that are overturned; they are the only plays where the system had an effect on a team’s run expectancy in an inning.

For example, let’s say your favorite team has the bases loaded with one out. The batter grounds a ball to the shortstop who starts a 6-4-3 double-play to end the inning, preventing any runs from scoring. The batting team’s run expectancy is now zero (the inning is over). But the play at first was close enough that the manager of the batting team asks for a review. After the review it is determined that the batter actually beat the play at first and should be ruled safe. This means that rather than the inning being over, the batting team has scored a run and now has runners at first and third with two outs, which, according to BP’s matrix for 2016, has a run expectancy of 0.4809. All told, this means the replay review system awarded the batting team (and penalized the defense) one run and 0.4809 expected runs. So the value of the review to the batting team is +1.4809 runs – I italicize runs because the analysis is based on average run expectancy values, and not necessarily actual runs scored. This might sound contrived, but it is exactly the situation of the Red Sox’s review that resulted in the largest shift in their run expectancy:

To see just how much the replay review system helped or hurt the Red Sox from a run expectancy perspective, I parsed the play-by-play account and/or watched the overturned calls that were initiated by a manager and involved the Red Sox. I am not looking at the umpire initiated reviews because I am most interested in the managerial strategic aspect of the system. This means I looked at the 22 calls that John Farrell and company got overturned through challenges and the 22 times when the Red Sox were the victims of another team’s successful challenge. For every winner there must be a loser. As in the example above, the base-out situation given the call on the field was taken as the initial run expectancy, and the base-out situation resulting from the overturning of the call was used as the end run expectancy. Any runs scored (or taken back) were accounted for in the calculation. In all cases the absolute difference in run expectancy was recorded.

All right, so let’s get to down to it. From this analysis I found that Red Sox’s challenges netted them 14.5 runs. These runs were almost evenly split between increasing run expectancy when they were on offense (8.3) and decreasing the oppositions’ run expectancy when the Red Sox were on defense (6.2). That seems pretty great. While they were not standouts in terms of success rate, the Sox gained substantial opportunity with their challenging. But as I mentioned above, for every winner there is a loser and we need to consider that the Red Sox were “victims” of the replay challenge system just as many times as they were victors. Being on the wrong end of an opposing manager’s successful challenge cost the Red Sox 13.7 runs; almost everything they got from challenging was given back. They lost 8.5 runs on offense and 5.2 runs on defense. The second most costly challenge against the Red Sox came in the first inning of Game 1 of the ALDS against Cleveland, when Brock Holt was deemed out at the plate after review (change in Red Sox’s RE: -1.3174). Now, I did not evaluate every team’s challenge-based run expectancy plus-minus, so I cannot speak to where the Red Sox’s +0.8 total places them relative to the league, but I suspect it is around the average. You get a few calls in your favor, you have a few calls go against you: the human element, now with technology.

As that last sentences alludes, ending the year with positive runs or negative runs likely involves a lot of luck. Umpiring errors (or perceived errors) are (hopefully) randomly distributed, so there is no reason that any team should expect to have more challengeable calls than another. But when challengeable calls happen in critical moments there are large shifts in run expectancy at stake, and therefore ensuring that challenge decisions are being made optimally (or as close to it as possible) is worthwhile. Of course I should also note that my review here is limited to calls that were actually challenged. There were likely many calls that were worthy of a challenge but were not challenged. Perhaps Farrell was out of challenges, or just too hesitant to pull the challenge trigger. I can’t really comment on that issue. Regardless, given what we know about when the Red Sox did challenge, it seems like they could be better than they were, and this success rate, as well as the value of their challenge outcomes, is something to track in 2017.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Since every spring training is literally the exact same, the usual handful of storylines are bound to show up at some point or another over the next six weeks. The pitcher’s tommy john recovery is coming along ahead of schedule. Everyone’s in the best shape of their life. That team’s top prospect is definitely ready for the majors. But time is a flat circle, so here we are, talking about them again. If you can’t beat ‘em,  join ‘em, and if you have to join ‘em, you might as well try and write about it first so you look better. Some things that you’re going to get tired of hearing about are:

1. Pablo Sandoval is back? And did you know he lost weight and that it’s maybe important but also maybe it’s not important?

Since Sandoval has been at camp for about a week already, this one’s gotten a head start. The pictures of Sandoval posing with people in sweaty workout clothes and looking substantially thinner are all over the place. John Farrell said yesterday that Sandoval has to win the job, but that means being just marginally better than Josh Rutledge, which theoretically shouldn’t be too much of an ask. The team also traded Travis Shaw and Yoan Moncada, which is what throwing all of your eggs in one basket looks like played out in real life. Sandoval has been steadily declining since 2011, so that’s not great. Kudos to him for getting in shape, though. His weight loss is going to be mentioned in the second graph of every article — good or bad– written about him this spring. There will be backlash against mentioning his weight and then there will be backlash against not mentioning it and you’ll look at the calendar and it’ll be February 19th.

2. Rick Porcello is going to regress, it’s fate. 

It’s still sort of astonishing that the AL Cy Young winner last year was Rick Porcello. At the risk of looking like a real homer, it certainly feels like Porcello didn’t quite get the love he probably deserved this offseason. People were legitimately having to defend the idea of him starting on Opening Day this year, which isn’t usually a battle you have to fight for reigning Cy Young winners.  If there’s a prime candidate for 2017’s bad-spring-numbers scapegoat, it’s Porcello.

3. “Here’s how you can tell the offense is already missing David Ortiz”

That take is coming. Emotional aspects aside, how is the team going to replace .315/.401/.620 with 38 home runs? Mitch Moreland? There will be numbers-y articles breaking down what the absence of him in the middle of the order means for the team’s production. Dan Shaughnessy will say this year’s team lacks heart. Throw that together with a bad spring from Mookie Betts or Hanley Ramirez and the panic button is going to get smashed into the ground. Someone will suggest that the team should reach out to him.

4. David Price is ready to prove himself for real this time guys. 

Not sure if you’ve heard, but David Price has this weird habit of not pitching that well in playoff games. It’s a flawed argument but also keeps happening and he makes jokes about it suspiciously often, so everyone’s in a really weird place about it. The big time free agent always has rough first year and then comes into the next season with a weight off his shoulders because he just wants to play for the fun of the game and definitely doesn’t worry about the stress of living up to a mammoth contract anymore, so Price is operating right on schedule. He will tell everyone his October yips are not a thing and everyone will wink while they agree with him. His french bulldog will show up in team promos.

5. Is John Farrell on the hot seat?!

You forgot about this one, didn’t you?

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

When a pitcher can’t get very many people out and you leave him in the game, bad things will happen. Tyler Austin’s two-run homer came with a .247 WPA, and in retrospect, that really was the ballgame. David Price had one clean inning all game, and gave up four runs in his last three innings pitched. The Yankees, for the most part, weren’t fooled by his stuff, and Price didn’t have the command we usually see from him. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Bottom Play (WPA)

It’s the top of the ninth. The Red Sox had men on first and second, and Xander Bogaerts … popped out to shortstop on the first pitch. Only a strikeout could be more harmless than that. That’s also good for a -.089 WPA in a game marred by missed chances. David Ortiz even had ton of negative WPA plays and left seven men on base. Really uncharacteristic night from the big fella.

Key Moment

This was the moment. The Red Sox had a huge chance at the end against a guy who kept leaving soft stuff high in the zone, and they couldn’t deliver.

Yeesh.

On the brighter side, it’s incredible that we all thought Ortiz would do the damn thing. That’s how much we adore that man.

Trends to Watch

1. Looks like Rick Porcello is starting Game 1 in the playoffs.

2. How in the hell did Dustin Pedroia hit this pitch fair, much less send it the other way for an RBI single?

That’s easily over half a foot inside. When you’re hot, you’re hot.

Coming Next

The Red Sox get another chance to pop bottles and dance on the Yankees’ lawn, but this time Clay Buchholz is starting against New York’s Bryan Mitchell.  Apart from one bad start in Toronto, Buch’s been pretty solid. With how this season’s gone, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him throw a CGSO for the pennant.

Okay, maybe I’d be a little surprised.

To some extent this isn’t an uncommon theme in baseball or even sports as a whole. The 2004 Red Sox were about doing something nobody thought they could do. They did it and were redeemed. The 2007 team was about domination, and they did dominate, but they were also about the new Red Sox way of doing things, about Theo Epstein’s plan for the franchise. And it worked. The 2013 team began about one thing but ended about something completely different. When beards and fun and unexpected joy gave way to horror and terror and sadness, the 2013 Red Sox became a vehicle to help the city of Boston begin the journey of healing. And they did it. And while the city will never be the same and those losses will never be unlost, the 2013 team showed the power of sports and, indeed the power of the Red Sox in New England to bring people closer, to help, and to give those experiencing grief a close shoulder and a strong hand. In a word: Redemption

This year’s Red Sox haven’t won the World Series. They haven’t even made the playoffs yet, though last night’s win goes a long way to helping make that a reality. But even so, the World Series is a long way off, and yet: Redemption.

This is a division-leading team led in part by the unwanted and over-paid, the under-talented and over-drafted. Just look at the duo of Hanley Ramirez and Rick Porcello. Last year Hanley was possibly the worst left fielder in baseball history, but even worse, after a torrid April his bat completely disappeared. He wasn’t just the worst left fielder in history, he was the worst left fielder in history who also couldn’t hit! And the Red Sox were on the hook for three more years of that. Worse was Rick Porcello, who had signed a huge contract extension before taking the mound for the Red Sox. Porcello did eventually take the mound and almost immediately we all wished he hadn’t. Nobody expected much from him after the disaster that was last season but, like Hanley, he’s made himself an integral part of the team. He probably isn’t their best pitcher (let’s be real, that’s David Price) but he has showed he can be a number two starter and recently he’s pitched even better than that. He’s showed he can be worth his contract and then some. Redemption.

This is a division-leading team led in part by the unwanted and over-paid, the under-talented and over-drafted.

Hanley’s game-winning homer last night might have been the bright beam of light radiating through the night pointing us to him and his season, but if we had looked a bit harder we’d have noticed sooner. Hanley has been crushing the ball over the past month, he has an OPS over .900 in the second half, and his season to date has been, if not spectacular, than every bit as good as we would have any right to expect. I recently found myself thinking, I know the trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell helped win the 2007 World Series, but wouldn’t it have been nice if the we’d had the chance to watch Hanley’s entire career here in Boston? Nobody was thinking that last season, or if they were they’d never had admitted it: Redemption

There are other stories of redemption on this team. Dustin Pedroia, the 33-year-old second baseman with declining power and increasing proclivity for injury, has been perhaps the hottest hitter in baseball over the last month, a month which has seen him play in his 140th game of the season, his most since 2013 and vie for the AL batting title. Pedroia is hitting over .442 over the last 30 days (not including Thursday’s game) and hitting line drives one third of the time he makes contact. Anyone who has watched his performance over that time would say A) that is incredible, and B) no way it’s only one third of the time.

Remember when the Red Sox were considering dealing Jackie Bradley to the Mariners for a relief pitcher? Already this season Bradley has been worth over four wins by WARP, five by Baseball Reference. He’s got 24 homers and a .350 on-base percentage and he plays Jackie Bradley-caliber defense in center field. He is everything he was supposed to be coming out of the University of South Carolina when the Red Sox took him in the first round, 40th overall. (By the way, the Rays had the 31st, 32nd, and 38th pick in that draft. They took Mikie Mahtook, Jake Hager, and Brandon Martin. Oops.) Bradley’s struggles in his first three seasons are well documented, but even after his breakout month towards the end of last season, he came back to earth hard in September. Was that just a random hot month from a player who still couldn’t hit major league pitching? It might have been a fair question to ask at the time, but Bradley’s performance this season has squashed that line of inquiry like a small bug under a large shoe. Redemption.

John Farrell won the World Series in his first season managing the Red Sox. Then he finished last the next two seasons. Then he got cancer and missed the last part of last season. But Farrell doesn’t give up. He beat cancer, got back in the dugout, and came into this season set to show the Red Sox he is still the man for the job. He has. There are always going to be bullpen moves we disagree with, and there are always going to be pinch hitters or lineups we don’t like, because that’s the case with any and all managers, but the truth is that Farrell does a pretty good job. If you’re looking for proof, teams don’t come back like this for bad managers. They don’t fight like the Red Sox have fought over the past week, coming back repeatedly against a desperate Blue Jays team and winning improbably and spectacularly against a resurgent Yankees club for bad managers. John Farrell won’t win the World Series every year, but he is the guy Ben Cherington worked hard to bring back to Boston. He is still that guy. We know that now. Redemption.

Speaking of Ben Cherington: Ben Cherington! Cherington’s reputation took a hit after he was fired in route to a second straight last place finish. Just as every move seemed to work in 2013, none seemed to work in 2014 or 2015. Pablo Sandoval was a disaster. So was Hanley and Porcello. Jackie Bradley couldn’t step in because he couldn’t hit major league pitching. Xander exploded onto the scene then struggled. The Jon Lester contract extension was bungled, leading to the loss of the team’s homegrown ace. Rusney Castillo, Joe Kelly, Allen Craig, and the return of Stephen Drew. Everything Cherington touched turned to crap. It all looked so hopeless. And now? Porcello is a Cy Young candidate. Hanley is the All Star-caliber hitter he was in Los Angeles. Bogaerts is having an excellent season at shortstop (despite a second-half slump). Bradley has blossomed along with Mookie Betts. Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada have both already reached the majors. The team is winning again and winning in huge part due to the moves Cherington made and didn’t make during his tenure. Redemption.

There maybe more to come. David Price will likely have a chance to chase his playoff bugaboos away. Dave Dombrowski will have a chance to prove he can build a championship club, his first since the 1997 Marlins. But even if neither of those things happen, Hanley Ramirez’s home run last night off Yankees relief ace Dellin Betances highlighted the transformation that this team has undergone this season. It’s an exciting team, dotted with players we love, but mostly it’s filled with players written off at one time or another. They didn’t need Hanley’s dramatic homer to prove that they aren’t done, that they will be redeemed, that they are redeemed. You don’t get to first place with one swing of the bat in September. They’ve been doing it all year long. Redemption. For Hanley, Farrell, Cherington, Pedroia, Dombrowski, the whole lot. Redemption. We don’t yet know how this season will turn out, and I won’t go so far as to suggest the ending is irrelevant but some things have already been decided by the previous 140 games. Redemption. Let that be this team’s legacy.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The trade deadline came and went with merely a whimper in Boston. Although rumored to be in on a few major deals (Chris Sale, Carlos Beltran), the Red Sox elected to make just one relatively minor move to add bullpen depth, getting LOOGY Fernando Abad from the Minnesota Twins. While this is not necessarily the standout move that many Red Sox fans wanted, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe details how Abad could be the left-handed specialist that the Red Sox have needed for much of the season. It is also important to note that while the Red Sox were not tremendously active on deadline day, Dave Dombrowski made a number of moves over the last month to improve aspects around the margins of this already competitive team. He added a right-handed utility infielder in Aaron Hill, a switch-hitting utility-infielder (and sort of outfielder) in Michael Martinez, a right-handed bullpen arm in Brad Ziegler, and a left-handed starter in Drew Pomeranz. Sure Chris Sale would have looked nice in a Red Sox uniform, but holding onto Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada — the likely cost of acquiring a player of Sale’s ilk — was the more prudent course of action.

On Tuesday night, we got an initial glimpse of the benefit of Dombroski’s decision to not deal either of the Sox’s top prospects, as Andrew Benintendi has been called up to the big leagues. Benintendi started this season at High-A Salem, was promoted to Double-A Portland in May and will skip Triple-A all together on his route to Boston. Benintendi took a week or two to figure out the Double-A level, but ultimately showed that his standout performance at High-A was not limited to the lower level. Over 263 PA he hit .295/.357/.515, and only struck out six more times (30) than he walked (24). Impressive stuff from the 22-year-old. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald notes that Benintendi will be the long-end of a left-field platoon with Bryce Brentz, who will play against opposing left-handed starters. And eventually the Brentz part should be played by Chris Young. A side benefit of the Benintendi call-up is that it allows Brock Holt to resume the super-utility role in which he has been most successful over the last two seasons and should help prevent him from getting overly fatigued.

Benintendi will likely take some time to adjust to this next level of pitching, as he has in each of his previous stops on the promotion ladder. Whether he will then take off and make things look easy like he has in the past (à la Dustin Pedroia), or go through an extended period of difficulty before figuring it out (à la Jackie Bradley Jr.) will be an interesting aspect of his development to watch. With this in mind, it is worth noting that Christopher Crawford, senior prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus, suggested that with Benintendi’s four plus tools it is difficult to see him not making an impact immediately.

This is an exciting move for the Red Sox in the immediate term and potentially for years to come.

Quick Hits

For David Price, the 2016 trade deadline was a different experience than the 2014 and 2015 deadlines. In each of the last two seasons, Price had to deal with months of trade rumors and then everything that comes with being traded. Price told Tim Britton of the Providence Journal that he has enjoyed not being churned through the rumor mill and is happy to be staying in Boston. On Thursday night in Anaheim, Price showed what he is capable of on the mound, and, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes, offered a beacon of hope for the final two months of the season.

The Red Sox are going to need strength in the second half, as they have a road-heavy schedule that, Alex Speier notes, the likes of which has only been seen once since 1961. Forty-one road games in their final 63 games provides a real test for this team. The Sox posted a 24-21 record (.533 winning percentage) over their first 45 road games; a rate that will need to continue if they want to stay in the thick of the AL East and Wild Card races.

This season has been unquestionably difficult for Clay Buchholz. At times it has appeared as though his tenure with the Red Sox was nearing an end, and on Monday Buchholz was fairly confident he was going to get traded. Reportedly the Red Sox had discussions about moving him but ultimately did not, a decision that Alex Speier suggests could change the broken cycle of acquiring pitchers in Boston. The Red Sox can work to fix pitchers rather than replace them. Brian Bannister, director of pitching analysis for the Red Sox, worked with Buchholz to adjust his release point back to the level it was in 2013, when he was dominant over 16 starts. Along these lines, in his notebook for The Boston Globe, Peter Abraham outlines how Buchholz is asserting himself as a reliever and should help make the Red Sox bullpen a team strength over the final two months of the season.

Speaking of the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel is back. Junichi Tazawa is back. Joe Kelly and Buchholz have been transitioned to bullpen roles. Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr. have shown they are competent. Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad have been added in trades. The depth is there. Now, as Matt Collins writes at Over the Monster, John Farrell is the key to getting the maximum value possible out of each player. Managing the bullpen is one very visible way a manager can augment his team’s record (see Showalter, Buck in Baltimore). With the relief pieces now in place, Farrell needs to do just that for the Red Sox.

Three Good Game Stories

On Saturday, Drew Pomeranz’s third start in a Red Sox uniform was underwhelming and the offense came up empty with runners in scoring position, resulting in a 5-2 loss to the Angels. In his game story, Rob Bradford writes that Pomeranz felt that, with the exception of a couple of batters, he threw the ball well. Hopefully that feeling translates to better results over his next few starts.

Heading into the ninth inning of Sunday’s game against the Angels, the Red Sox offense was mired in a streak of 16 consecutive scoreless innings. They then erupted for five runs in a wonderful comeback. Peter Abraham has details from the exciting win, including Xander Bogaerts describing the game as a potential turning point.

On Monday the Red Sox’s west coast road trip continued in Seattle, where the team was looking to build on Sunday’s late-inning heroics. Eduardo Rodriguez was excellent over 6.1 innings, Junichi Tazawa and Craig Kimbrel each threw scoreless innings, new-guy Aaron Hill hit a game-tying home run and Mookie Betts delivered the winner. Evan Drellich has more on the game and Mookie’s ongoing emergence as one of the elite players in the game.

Photo by Mike DiNovo/USA Today Sports Images