Losing is not fun, and losing on Opening Day is probably less fun than normal everyday losing, the kind the baseball season gradually inoculates you against. But a loss on that first day is extra tough because you have no context. You wait months for real baseball to come, it finally arrives, the Red Sox look to be cruising to a win, everything is as it should be, and then some relief pitcher forgets where the strike zone is and/or takes an actual poop directly on the pitching rubber, and suddenly everything we’ve waited all winter for is ruined and bad.

That’s what it feels like to lose on Opening Day. But what does it actually mean to lose on Opening Day? That’s probably a more relevant question, and I’m sure you are currently aiming that bowling ball at that new flat-screen TV in a quest for relevance and not in any way out of unbridled fury at mediocre relief pitching. So let’s try, desperately try, to shoot some logic up into this piece before you personally have to goose the local electronics store’s monthly earnings. As mentioned above, the 2004 Red Sox also lost on Opening Day, and in as gut-tearing a manner as a team can, too. They went on to do pretty well when things came down to it, so you have to figure that gut tear must have healed sometime before they came back from down three games in the ALCS to absolutely bury the Yankees. The 2007 Red Sox lost on Opening Day as well, and they didn’t just lose, they got smoked. Curt Schilling gave up five runs to the Kansas City Royals (this was before the Royals were good, which is a nice way of saying those Royals were bad), and the Red Sox offense never got out of Spring Training mode. All in all, they lost 7-1, about as ignoble a beginning to a World Series winning campaign as one can conjure up. Completing the trifecta, the 2013 Red Sox won on Opening Day. Jon Lester out-dueled C.C. Sabathia and the Sox beat the Yankees in New York, 8-2.

So, as it turns out, you can win the World Series whether you win or lose on Opening Day. But as that’s only three teams, it hardly constitutes immutable proof. So I went back through the 2000 season and looked at how every eventual World Series winning team since then did on Opening Day. The data says eventual World Series winning teams since and including the 2000 season have a 10-8 record on opening day. That’s a .555 winning percentage which works out to a 90 win pace. That’s not all that great! 90 wins is a fine season but not often a World Series winning one. But, if you limit the sample further, to the 2002 season and going forward — which you wouldn’t do unless you had a point to make — you would find that the eventual World Series winners are 8-8 on opening day. 8-8! That sure makes a point!

What does all of this tell us? Not a darn thing, probably. The Red Sox, one of the best teams in baseball over the past two decades, are about as likely to win as they are to lose on any given day of the season. Good teams win and good teams lose is the point, and almost in equal amounts, which is why there are 162 games in a baseball season and not for any other reasons, nope, not at all.

So what does it mean to win on Opening Day? It means that for a day, you get to enjoy perfection. Baseball is back, spring is here, summer is soon to follow, and the baseball season lies ahead in all it’s dignified, spectacular, and orderly beauty. What does it mean to lose on Opening Day? It’s pretty much the same, but with a whole lot more swear words and, if the Red Sox bullpen has anything to say about it, a couple fewer working televisions.

*  *  *

If you’ll permit me an indulgent paragraph, I’m leaving Baseball Prospectus after more than six years and I need to say thank you. It’s been a wild blast, one I never thought I’d get to do while reading Joe Sheehan, Steven Goldman, Nate Silver, and Christina Kahrl blow my mind on a daily basis while back in school. I’ve written more articles than I can count — 35 pages worth if you author search me. My first official piece as a BP author was about what happens when you type “poop” into the Baseball Reference search engine. After that, I wrote a weekly column, years and years worth of the Hit List (eternal thanks to the great Jay Jaffe), I’ve covered the playoffs, done Transaction Analyses, and I’ve been on board here at BP Boston since its inception. All of it has been a tremendous honor of which I’m entirely unworthy, and so I owe undying thanks to Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller for giving me the opportunity to write at the feet of those and so many other giants. Thanks also go to Ben Carsley and Brett Cowett for having me here at BP Boston. A writer is nothing if there is nobody to read their work, and so I’d be grandly remiss if I didn’t thank you, the reader. Whether you’ve been reading me for years, or whether this is my first piece of yours, thank you.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts.

Partly that’s a function of the fact the Red Sox have been a better team than the Orioles over that time. Thus when Baltimore has picked it has more often been at the top of the draft where more is expected to come of the selection, whereas the Red Sox have often picked later where star power is much harder to come by.

But even then, the Red Sox have still done better than Baltimore. There are probably other teams that have done better than the Red Sox over the past three decades (going much deeper into draft history is pointless as the draft has changed so much since) but though they exist they likely aren’t many. Take for example, Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts, and that would be amazing.

Of course, that’s not the only time the Red Sox have had a non-first round pick and (to date) got more production out of it than any of the first rounders used that in that same draft. They did it in 2004 when they used the 65th overall pick to take Dustin Pedroia. If you want to hold this exercise to just the first round though, well, even then the Red Sox have done well. The following draft, 2005, the Red Sox had the 23rd pick as compensation for Orlando Cabrera signing with the Angels. They used it on outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the sixth most valuable player (B-R WAR) taken in that draft.

So the Red Sox have scored when they should’ve scored and scored when they probably shouldn’t have scored. But they haven’t always nailed it. In 2010, they used the 20th overall pick on Kolbrin Vitek with Christian Yelich taken three picks later. Vitek never made it above Double-A, retiring four years after being picked. Even so though, the 20th pick isn’t a surefire star waiting to happen. That’s more like a guy you’d hope could turn into a solid contributor. Vitek never was that (why he’s mentioned in this paragraph!) but missing out on the 20th overall pick isn’t something to quit over. Oddly enough, current Red Sox star pitcher Chris Sale was selected seven picks earlier, but I digress.

The real problem, as the Orioles can attest to, is getting a top-ten pick and blowing it on nothing. The Red Sox haven’t officially done that yet, but it’s pretty close. Trey Ball has a 5.53 ERA in Double-A and is looking less like a future rotation cornerstone and more like a guy who gets dropped in the end of an insubstantial trade, or even converted to the outfield because why not? Worse, Boston took Ball with a bunch of still promising guys available (Austin Meadows, JP Crawford, Hunter Dozier, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge), though that’s how every draft is. There’s always someone promising available. The trick is knowing who it is.

You have to go pretty far back to find so high a pick go so badly for the Red Sox. In 1995 the Red Sox took pitcher Andy Yount two picks before Roy Halladay went to the Blue Jays, but that was with the 15th overall pick, not the seventh. In 1994 Boston took Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick, and in ’93 they took Trot Nixon with the seventh pick. Hard to complain about either, even if Nixon didn’t ever quite live up to the star power that was projected upon him.

Since Theo Epstein took over the GM’s seat in early 2003 the Red Sox have been incredibly good at getting value out of the draft. It’s hard to win three World Series in fifteen years without getting something substantial from the draft. The Red Sox built the foundation of their first World Series winning team through trades and free agency, but their second, the 2007 team came far more from the draft. While there were ’04 crossovers in Jason Varitek and David Ortiz, and free agents like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the ’07 team was also Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon. The 2013 team was similar in its composition. Lots of free agents and players acquired in trades, but with a solid core of home grown players like Lester, Pedroia, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Will Middlebrooks, and Ellsbury, with assists from Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley.

Looking at that 2013 squad, you can still see the roots stretching back to Theo Epstein and Boston’s first world championship in almost a century, but so can you see the future, or as we here in 2017 say, the present. The Red Sox don’t owe it all to the draft. They’re not the Rays or the Astros, but the draft has provided the Red Sox with a lot of value and a sizable amount of star power over the past few decades. So when going to look for Boston’s biggest draft busts or some such thing, you’ll have to be searching for a long time. Or, put more succinctly, the Red Sox aren’t the Orioles. Because when it comes to the draft, the Red Sox are hobgood at it.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports

I hereby declare a moratorium on whining about Jon Lester no longer being on the Red Sox. Thank you for your compliance. — Admin

— snakes (@bryanjoiner) October 24, 2016

Even if (definitely not) the editor of this site did not agree:

@bryanjoiner

Bryan,

Jon Lester should be a Red Sox

— Def Not Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) October 24, 2016

Which got Brett and I thinking: Why can’t we quit Jon Lester? We headed to email to figure it out. The conversation is below and has been only lightly edited for clarity, because we’re generally clear AF:

Bryan: This will be fun. I’ll basically let you start, here’s the softball. You and I are both sort of sick of the bellyaching over Lester, even if we love the guy. Why does it bother *you* so much? I have my reasons, but I’m curious about yours.

Brett: We get it — the Red Sox spent money elsewhere that wasn’t spent on Jon Lester. Yes, the Red Sox low-balled him early in 2014. Apparently, the thinking regarding that “insulting” offer is that it soured him on the idea of re-signing with them that winter, but it’s easy to forget that the Red Sox were one of the final teams he considered. It’s not like the $70 million offer they made in Spring Training made him think, “Well, screw these guys, deep dish pizza for life!” He wanted something different, and no amount of money that the Red Sox were willing to offer was going to change the mind of a guy who wanted a change.

The worst part is that this train of thought leads people to believe that the Red Sox signed Pablo Sandoval with all the money they *could’ve* spent on Lester, as if they had the divine power to choose between the two players with no outside influences. That complaint is so fraught with terrible reasoning that it hurts me just to mention it.

Bryan: I agree with this, and I’ll  throw this in there: They traded him! It was obvious why they did it, but once the seal was broken, I can see why he didn’t feel obligated to return to Boston — which was a total shitshow at the time, devoid of both the manager and general manager under whom he had played most of his career. So maybe he wanted a change, or maybe a change was forced upon him, and he just decided to roll with it … while making more money in the first place.

On top of that, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that the Sox basically turned Lester’s contract year into Rick Porcello, who is the Cy Young Award favorite in the American League. I know that technically the Sox could have had their cake and eaten it too, but this seems to fall into the ever-expanding category of Sox fans taking the team’s success for granted and being overly melodramatic about the bad moments, or, in this case, merely less than perfect.

I also think that David Price’s relatively poor performance is overly influencing our thinking here, and I think Lester’s history with the Sox — beating cancer, anchoring a World Series-winning team — is properly influencing it, but my main complaint for the time being is that this World Series is not about us any more than the 2004 World Series was about the Cleveland Indians after their best player had decided to come here. All that said, I’m fine with people being pissy about it once the Series is over. I’m dead inside, but that doesn’t mean everyone else has to be. What about you? Do you think this is a temporary or permanent problem? And how do we solve it?

Brett: I agree with the fact that is isn’t about us anymore, because it really isn’t at all. I’m very okay with being happy for Lester and the other former Sox, because they were good and fun guys. They’ve moved on now, and so should we. Cheer for whomever you want. Sure, the Sox made bad choices revolving around these guys, but I’d rather focus on how they’re doing now, not how’d they be doing in Boston.

Personally, I think this is a temporary problem, but it all comes down to Price. People will lament not having Lester until Price finally turns in a postseason that equals the ace pitcher reputation he has. Until that happens, and as long as Lester is good, the complaining will continue. There’s nothing we can really do to solve it individually, barring a J.D. Drew-like change of heart. If Price never does that, and can’t live up to the very high expectations people set for him, then it’ll just become a constant source of regret, and we’ll never hear the end of it.

It just comes down to the players the fans have the most disdain for: Price and Pablo. Hanley and Porcello have redeemed themselves but if either has a bad 2017, you’re going to hear the same thing about both of them. They need to perform, because we’re not going to stop people from those dreaded hypothetical scenarios.

Bryan: The fun part is that if you dig into advanced stats, Price might have a better season than Lester. Baseball Prospectus (w00t) had Price at a 2.90 Deserved Run Average and 6.5 WAR and Lester at 3.10 DRA and 5.3 WAR. FanGraphs had Price at 4.5 WAR and Lester at 4.3. Only Baseball-Reference supports the results of the eye test; they have Price at 3 WAR and Lester at 5.3. You can take all these with enough salt to melt a driveway, of course, but it doesn’t change the fact that pitching in the NL Central is a far more desirable job than pitching in the AL East. Remember when Adam Vinatieri left the Patriots to go kick in a dome? Yeah, me too. This seems kinda like that.

I agree with you that we’ll probably never be rid of the hypotheticals until Price turns in a great regular season or postseason, but it’s important to remember that at this point last year Porcello was considered an utter failure, and we have short memories when it serves us to have them. I still have hope for Price, and I think the actual difference between him and Lester at this point is mostly academic. As much as Price is skewing our perceptions, so are the Cubs writ large versus the Sox — Boston’s organization is one of the best in the league, but there’s no question that Chicago is better right now, and Lester seems to benefit from his exalted company. To paraphrase “our” Senator (this is a very loose “our,” as neither of us live in Massachusetts), the Cubs have been great, but he didn’t build that organization: Theo did.

And there’s the rub. Epstein’s involvement, along with Lester’s and matched by Francona’s and Napoli’s on the other side, makes us feel heavily invested in the result of the series. “Invested” might be the wrong word, actually; I think we feel like we’re entitled to make judgments about these guys because they’re all Red Sox legends. I think we’re sort of right, actually, but there’s enough excess baggage with Lester than I think we generally go too far. I think you correctly ID’d not merely Price, but Sandoval, as the general catalysts for this, though I think there’s a compelling argument that if the Sox had made it out of the first round this would have been tamped down, and if they had made the World Series, it might have been smothered altogether.

Of course, none of that matters, and now I’m trafficking in hypotheticals. I guess my next and maybe last question is this: Do you think this is something we’ll still be talking about in 10 years? Like, when Price and Lester are both good and done, do you think it’ll still haunt and/or bother us? My suspicion is that it rests not merely on how the Sox do, but the Cubs as well. Given how well they’re set up, it seems like we might be talking about this for awhile.

Brett: A decade can change a lot of things. I don’t think Sox fans sorrowfully regret letting Pedro go after 2004 anymore, mostly because the teams in the late 2000s were so good. But I don’t think this’ll be something we’ll remember in a decade, especially if the Red Sox continue to make runs deep into October. Winning breeds forgiveness, at least partially. But you are right — the more successful the Cubs get, the more we’ll hear about it. It’ll only get magnified with how many more times the Cubs and the Red Sox make the playoffs and make a Boston-Chicago World Series a possibility.

I don’t think it’ll haunt the team that much, however. The Red Sox probably didn’t see Jon Lester as part of their new core, which will be based around the Killer Bs and how much they can grow. It hurt the Sox in the short-term because of how terrible the team has been with developing starting pitching. But looking forward, there are some things that can alleviate the Red Sox’s pitching woes. You have Michael Kopech and Jason Groome. You have the incredibly stacked 2018 free agent class. None of them will be Lester, and probably will never have the reputation he had, but it’s well worth a shot. Lester is not the only good starting pitcher out there.

It might end up being a footnote in 10 years, since something like that pales in comparison to the dumpster fire that was most of the 2012 season. In the end, if the Red Sox are good, and make the postseason a ton of times, does it really matter? The Red Sox are still successful! Just because one of the starting pitchers isn’t Jon Lester should be irrelevant. The Red Sox are playing in October. That much should be enough. Despite that, pundits will take their fortunes in the postseason as a microcosm of the previous six months, and keep bringing this up. Sooner or later, we have to realize that the Red Sox are succeeding without Lester, and we have to appreciate that. Would it be nice to have him? Sure, I’ll admit that. But the Red Sox do not. Oh well.

It’s better to put faith in the guys currently on the roster than pine for someone who isn’t there anymore.

Bryan: Aye, aye. Well said. We can leave it at that. I still pine for Jonny Gomes, though.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

A quiet day would be an abnormal development for the Red Sox, who are usually active at the deadline, especially since the turn of the century as they’ve consistently made major moves to either boost a playoff-caliber team, or tear apart the bad ones. Many deals succeeded, leading to championship runs. Some failed miserably. Others, well, didn’t do much of anything. Regardless, Theo Epstein, Ben Cherington and Co. were never afraid to pull the trigger.

Today’s trade deadline may leave Red Sox fans underwhelmed, but many deadlines haven’t. Let’s look back at some of those busier deadlines and see just how well (or poorly) they turned out. I present you with the five biggest Red Sox trade deadlines of the 21st century.

5.) 2013

Red Sox acquire right-handers Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal, send shortstop Jose Iglesias to the Tigers and send right-handers J.B. Wendelken and Francelis Montas to the White Sox

This trade technically came the day before the 2013 trade deadline, but I make the rules here, and I say that’s good enough to make this list. Anyway, the 2013 Red Sox were in the midst of a worst-to-first turnaround, but needed another starting pitcher for their playoff push. Insert Jake Peavy. The righty gave the Sox just what they needed, posting a 3.82 FIP in 10 regular-season starts and helping them win the World Series. Peavy’s 2013 postseason was less than stellar, but he did start the ALDS clincher against the Rays, allowing just one run on five hits over 5.2 innings. The Red Sox got an ok half season out of Peavy in 2014 before shipping him to the eventual world champion Giants in 2014.

The only notable loss for the Red Sox in that deal was Jose Iglesias, but even his departure wasn’t a major letdown at the time with Stephen Drew and Dustin Pedroia at shortstop and second base, respectively, Will Middlebrooks (sort of) contributing at third and Xander Bogaerts on his way. Iglesias was known primarily for his glove coming through the Sox organization, but was hitting well early on in 2013, posting a .285 TAv in 63 games before being dealt. Iglesias missed all of 2014, owned a .252 TAv in 2015 and has a .243 TAv this season. Meanwhile, Bogaerts could be the one of the best offensive shortstops in the majors for years to come. Safe to say the Red Sox made the right move.

Iglesias still contributed to the 2013 title, by the way.

That led to this:

4.) 2009

Red Sox acquire catcher Victor Martinez from the Indians for right-hander Justin Masterson, left-hander Nick Hagadone and catcher Bryan Price

The playoff-bound Red Sox bolstered their lineup with one big swap, adding Victor Martinez in exchange for Justin Masterson and a pair of prospects. Martinez proved to be a nice addition, as he split time between catcher and first base over 183 regular-season games between 2009 and 2010. Martinez posted a .302 TAv in 237 plate appearances in 2009 and a .281 mark the next year. He didn’t give the Red Sox the postseason production they were hoping for in 2009, collecting just a pair of hits, but that run also lasted just three games.

This trade wasn’t necessarily a win or loss for either team, but it’s safe to say the Indians got more out of the deal. Masterson pitched five solid years in Cleveland, his best being in 2013 when he was the ace of the staff and led the Indians to a postseason berth with a 2.63 DRA and 3.38 FIP. The righty’s career has since flamed out after a disastrous season with the Red Sox in 2015, but the Indians certainly got the best of him.

3.) 2014

Red Sox trade left-hander Jon Lester to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes and a competitive balance pick; send right-hander John Lackey and left-hander Corey Littrell to the Cardinals for outfielder Allen Craig and right-hander Joe Kelly; trade left-hander Andrew Miller to the Orioles for right-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and send shortstop Stephen Drew to the Yankees for utility infielder Kelly Johnson

Making one major trade at the deadline is big. Two deals is impressive. Four deals in one day is on another level. That’s exactly what the Red Sox did at the 2014 trade deadline as they shipped off a number of veterans over four trades, eyeing the future in the midst of a last-place season.

The Sox’s deadline activity actually began five days earlier when they traded Peavy to the Giants for Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar. Escobar is no longer with the team, but Hembree has turned into a nice innings eater out of the bullpen. The real fireworks, however, began early on the morning of the deadline when Jon Lester was sent to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes. Lester was once again pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the Sox were out of contention and the lefty was in the final year of his contract with no long-term agreement in sight. Cespedes, meanwhile, was a big bat with another year left on his deal. Lester picked up where he left off upon joining the A’s, posting a 2.35 ERA and 3.16 FIP over 11 starts. The Sox pursued Lester in the offseason, but lost out to the Cubs. Cespedes owned a .269 TAv over 213 plate appearances before being dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello in the offseason. Sure, Porcello doesn’t seem like a stellar return for Lester (although Porcello has been one of their two most dependable starters this season), but they also could have lost the lefty for nothing that offseason had they not traded him.

Then there was the deal we’d all like to forget. That was the deal that brought Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston in exchange for John Lackey. The trade made plenty of sense at the time. Lackey was pitching well, but had little future left in Boston, especially after expressing his displeasure about pitching at the major-league minimum in 2015. Craig was a former All-Star who appeared to be simply having a bad year, while Kelly was young, could throw hard and had shown potential after posting a 2.69 ERA over 15 starts in 2013. Two years later, the deal looks as bad as ever for the Red Sox. Lackey posted a 2.77 ERA while pitching at the minimum for the Cardinals last season. Craig spent most of last season in Triple-A and has since fallen off the face of the earth. Kelly has spent his time with the Red Sox either hurt, or bouncing between Triple-A and the majors.

As dominant as Andrew Miller has been over the last two-plus years, a young pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez was about the best you were going to get for a rental reliever (how times have changed). The Orioles got the most out of Miller, who owned a 1.16 FIP in 23 appearances with Baltimore in 2014. He’s since become one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons. The Red Sox, meanwhile, got a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm for a player they would probably lose to free agency anyway.

The Stephen Drew trade proved to be insignificant. He gave the Yankees an ok season and a half and Kelly Johnson gave the Red Sox next to nothing. However, the trade opened up shortstop for Bogaerts, and we all know how that’s gone.

This deadline was as crazy as it gets for any team. At the time, the Red Sox seemingly won the day, but hindsight shows that not all of it worked out as planned. The Lackey deal is a perfect example of that. However, it would’ve looked worse if the Red Sox lost some of these players to free agency.

2.) 2008

Red Sox acquire outfielder Jason Bay from the Pirates, trade outfielder Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and send right-hander Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Pirates

This trade was years in the making. It was far from the first time Manny Ramirez had been part of a trade rumor, and even further from the first time he wanted out of Boston. In 2008, the Red Sox finally pulled the trigger, and got a player in Jason Bay who could fill Ramirez’s void immediately. From a straight trade standpoint, the Red Sox and Dodgers both got solid production for a year and a half of service. Bay posted a .308 TAv in 211 plate appearances with the Sox in 2008, while owning a .302 mark the next season. Ramirez was even more impressive with his .425 TAv in 229 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2008 and .336 mark in 2009 as LA reached the NLCS both seasons. Ramirez was clearly better than Bay during that time, but by that point he had been nothing but a distraction in Boston and needed to go.

As for the prospects the Red Sox gave up. Craig Hansen’s career continued to be forgettable. Brandon Moss’ career never really materialized until his 2012 arrival in Oakland in 2012, where he totaled 76 home runs over three seasons. Moss, 32, has a .323 TAv and 17 home runs for the Cardinals this season.

1.) 2004

Red Sox acquire shortstop Orlando Cabrera from the Expos and first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz from the Twins, and send shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and outfielder Matt Murton to the Cubs, and acquire outfielder Dave Roberts from the Dodgers for outfielder Henri Stanley

This may go down as the biggest trade deadline in Red Sox history. It was significant enough that they traded, at the time, one of the most iconic players in team history. Add in the fact that it helped propel the Sox to their first World Series title in 86 years and you’re talking about a deadline worth telling your grandkids about.

We start, of course, with the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Garciaparra had been the face of the Red Sox since his 6.0 WARP rookie season in 1997 and a clear fan favorite. He was also really, really good, owning a 43.7 WARP between 1997 and 2003 (keep in mind he missed most of 2001). But by July 2004, he had seemingly overstayed his welcome in Boston. He was in a contract year with no promise of returning, had become a defensive liability and was expected to miss more time with an Achilles injury. Epstein, in a stroke of groinal fortitude, dealt away the superstar in hopes of shoring up the team’s “fatal flaw”: defense.

Epstein got just what he was looking for from Orlando Cabrera. The shortstop’s .268 TAv with the Red Sox was comparable to Garciaparra’s .272 TAv with the Sox in 2004, but he also posted a positive FRAA and played 15 more games than Garciaparra did in the final two months. Cabrera left at the end of the season and the Red Sox began a carousel at shortstop over the next decade, but the championship and Garciaparra’s rapid decline soon after was enough to justify the move.

The Dave Roberts trade was a footnote in the midst of an active deadline, and with good reason. The outfielder made just 101 plate appearances and posted a .251 TAv. He was simply acquired to add speed, defense and depth off the bench. However, Roberts is also responsible for the biggest stolen base in Red Sox history.

***

It’s unlikely the Red Sox will do anything to top these trade deadlines this season. But that’s why a list like this exists. You don’t get fireworks every season. When you consider the moves the Sox have made in the past month, it makes even more sense for this deadline to be a quiet one. That’s not always a bad thing.

 Photo by USA Today Sports Images

As of now, they have three competent starters in David Price, Steven Wright and Rick Porcello. See a common thread here? None of them were homegrown. Price was a big FA acquisition, and Wright and Porcello were obtained in trades with AL Central teams. That leaves two rotation spots for the other starters to fill, and, well, they haven’t been anything close to competent. The melting pot of Clay Buchholz, Roenis Elias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly and Henry Owens has made a really unappetizing stew.

But hey, there’s some slack to cut. Elias, Rodriguez, and Kelly weren’t brought up through the Red Sox’s farm system, and Buchholz has been good in the past. Problem is, he isn’t good anymore. Neither is Henry Owens. And therein lies the core of the issue. The Red Sox, as an organization, simply cannot produce starting pitchers.

When’s the last time you can remember the Red Sox churning out a starter that could cut it in the majors? Buchholz did well for a while, but his trademark erraticism has torpedoed any hope that he could be that good again. So let’s go with Jon Lester. He debuted in 2006, and became a full-time starter in 2008. He is, by far, the best pitcher they’ve developed in recent years, and I’m really straining the definition of the word “recent” here.

There’s been flareups from guys like Justin Masterson and his really good four months in 2009, and Felix Doubront and his strangely decent 2013 season. Other than those 10 months of good pitching, everything has been terrible. That’s not an exaggeration. It’s been so bad that Brad Penny – you know, the dude who could only manage five innings of four-run ball per start in 2009 – has been more valuable in 131 innings than the vast majority of Red Sox-developed starters in the last several years. David Price has already blown past them all as well. Even Eduardo Rodriguez, who we can all agree has been objectively horrifying to watch pitch this year, is worth more than many Sox starters.

So, as a benchmark, let’s use Lester’s promotion to a full-time starter in 2008 as a starting point here. What other monstrosities have the Red Sox minors unleashed upon the major league team? Remember, they’ve had to come up solely through the Red Sox’s system. Also, Brian Johnson is currently exempt, as he’s been snakebitten with injuries, and is being treated for anxiety.

• For starters – pun intended – there’s Charlie Zink. He was a knuckleballer who made a single disastrous start in 2008 and was never heard from again. Think of how a knuckleballer can go bad, and then make it three times worse. Yeah. That’s Zink.
• Michael Bowden probably didn’t get very much of a chance in the majors in the late 2000s, but he was still pretty nondescript in the minors. He was used primarily as a reliever, but the strange, arm-twisting throwing motion of his tended to give away his pitch a lot, and made him very vulnerable to the running game. Never really started again after 2010, and no team took a chance on him.
• Junichi Tazawa actually came into the majors in 2009 as a starter, and unsurprisingly, gave up 23 runs in 25.1 innings. Now you see why he’s a reliever. To his credit, he did have one good start against the Yankees while the entire team imploded around him that year.
• If you can recall specific details from the September collapse in 2011, you probably remember Kyle Weiland. He was so bad in his major league stint that a Terry Francona press conference is all I could find for highlights of him. He added to the collapse by giving up five home runs in 24 innings, and was sent to Houston to fade away that winter.
• Daniel Bard, the starter. You’re sad, I’m sad, so let’s just move on.
• Brandon Workman’s been middling, to put it kindly. A terrible 2014 wiped out whatever good vibes lasted from his 2013 campaign. Then came the Tommy John surgery. He’s slated to be a reliever now as well.
• Hey, remember Anthony Ranaudo? The guy who couldn’t strike anyone out, walked boatloads of batters, and gave up a ton of fly balls? He’s what rock bottom looks like for Red Sox starters. You have to try real hard to get a 6.89 FIP in 39 innings, but Ranaudo put that work in.
• Henry Owens has 13 walks in 12 innings this year. Somehow, the Red Sox won every start he’s made. Sure, there’s hope, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions last year, and the walks aren’t going away.

I’d rather not go on. You’ve seen this story play out over and over again. The Red Sox aren’t developing starting pitchers, and that list doesn’t even include starters acquired from other teams, like Zach Stewart. They even hired Brian Bannister to bolster their pitching corps, and so far, the results still aren’t there. This isn’t Bannister’s fault, but the organization’s as a whole.

Going forward, it doesn’t look much better. Anderson Espinosa is someone to get excited about, yes, and Michael Kopech is also quite good. But it says a lot about the state of Red Sox pitching if their third-best prospect might end up being Jason Groome, the Red Sox’s 2016 first round selection who might opt for junior college to raise his draft stock. That’s not a good situation.

This forces the Red Sox to overpay for starters. Just look at Price’s contract. Or the price tag for someone like Julio Teheran, who would be a mediocre fit in Fenway Park, but would be a much better option than whomever the Red Sox cough up for those last two spots in the rotation. It’s not an enviable position, and if Dombrowski decides to deal, it could quickly deplete a farm system with a big gap between its top four prospects and everyone else.

Look, I realize the Red Sox aren’t the Mets. They won’t churn out a top-flight starter every 12 months. Hell, they can’t even produce a major-league starter in three times that. But it’s rapidly become a chronic issue, especially as the team searches for solutions. At this point, they can’t look internally for help for much longer. The players they need just aren’t there, and it’s been that way for a long, long time.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

If you look at the Red Sox rotation’s ERA it’s easy to see how bad they’ve been. They’re last in the AL in starters’ ERA and 28th in baseball ahead of only Colorado and Philadelphia. There! Case closed! But ERA isn’t perfect. So if you look at better indicators of pitcher quality than ERA, like DRA or FIP, you’ll see that Boston’s rotation wasn’t the worst at all. In fact, they were in the middle of the pack amongst their leaguemates. Red Sox starters collectively were 12th in baseball in DRA and 14th in baseball in FIP. That’s about what we were all hoping for at the beginning of the year! A decent pitching staff and a great offense and the Red Sox would be playoff bound, except DRA and FIP are measurements of pitcher quality, not measurements of what happened. What happened was the Red Sox gave up a ton of runs in part because of their pitching staff but in part because their defense is bad. I discussed this before in this space. Boston’s defense is measured in ERA, so a significant component part of “We need an ace!” is “Our defense is awful!”

The truth is Red Sox can win without an ace just as they can lose with one. Think about the teams that had aces this year. The Reds had Johnny Cueto and were forced to deal him because they were terrible. Cueto was very good but he couldn’t fix the rest of Cincinnati’s starting staff. The White Sox have Chris Sale who probably deserves the AL Cy Young Award. The White Sox are 16.5 games out of first place in their division. Sale couldn’t fix the team’s defense or their hitting or, for that matter, the back of their rotation. The White Sox are terrible whether they have Chris Sale or not.

The argument goes, the Red Sox need an ace to improve their starting staff, but if the whole staff is deficient, what will one ace do?

An ace isn’t a cure-all, and it’s being treated as such around these parts. You don’t even have to leave Boston to see this. Last year the Red Sox were awful, but Jon Lester was amazing! The Red Sox ended up dealing him for a variety of reasons but even his awesomeness wasn’t enough to save the team or the rest of the rotation. The team would undoubtedly be better this season with Jon Lester than they are now, but Lester has been worth 1.3 wins by WARP and 3.0 wins by fWAR. Add either to the Red Sox win total now and they’d still be utterly irrelevant in the context of making the post-season. The argument goes, the Red Sox need an ace to improve their starting staff, but if the whole staff is deficient, what will one ace do?

The Red Sox need for an ace is founded upon the idea that the entire starting staff pitched badly this season. It’s almost like we’ve never advanced past our April understanding of the rotation when everyone on the team was awful except Clay Buchholz who was painfully unlucky. Wade Miley has turned the boat around and is pitching fine. He’s been quite good if you don’t count his rough April and perfectly cromulent if you do. Clay Buchholz has been excellent and is now hurt. This is Clay Buchholz. Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens, and Steven Wright have all shown promise. This isn’t the perfect group, and they need to pitch better, either with new blood or through simply doing it themselves, but if the other areas of the team are better, this is staff is more workable than you’d think. Had the staff’s results been more acceptable and had the team hung around the edges of the Wild Card race, there’s a good chance the focus would have shifted to other areas of need, and there are other areas of need. Pablo Sandoval needs to not be terrible. Hanley Ramirez also needs to not be terrible. Someone needs to play first base. Someone needs to play right field. The list is not short! We can ding Cherington all we want for failing to bring back Lester and/or failing to cede to every demand made by Ruben Amaro in the quest for Cole Hamels, but ask yourself how much better would the Red Sox be right now if instead of paying Pablo Sandoval, they’d traded for Josh Donaldson? There are other ways to make the Red Sox better besides paying exorbitant prices for starters.

But it almost seems like it doesn’t matter at this point. The ace train is racing down the tracks without brakes and the only way to stop it is for Johnny Cueto, David Price, or someone else with a scarlet letter A pinned on their chest to hop aboard. Ace trains respond to magic scarlet letter As as everyone knows. So that’s probably where this is all headed. The Sox will, after all, pay big money to David Price or Cueto or someone who will ride in and make us all feel better, and sometime in November or December we’ll all take a sigh of relief and think, ‘Okay, now the team can go out and win.’ That will feel nice, but there will be a ring of falseness to it.

To be clear, this article isn’t intended to be an argument against acquiring an ace. That is a silly argument to make. Every team needs as much good pitching as they can get, including the Red Sox. That one guy can help, and depending on who he is he can help a whole lot. But he’s not going to solve every problem on the team and he’s not single-handedly going to turn a bad team into a World Series contender. Turning over every table and chair to fix one problem while others fester isn’t the way to create a World Series-caliber team.

The goal is to win the most games and it’s much easier to do that with a great pitching staff than with a bad one, or one that piled bad luck on top of their mediocrity. But Boston didn’t lose this season because they failed to acquire an ace. They lost because their whole team wasn’t good enough. That’s a problem too deep for one guy, no matter how good, to solve.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox are getting to the end of that first stage, but the strange part is we don’t really have a handle on what that first stage has told us. This makes it difficult to know how they should handle the second stage. Boston sits last in the AL East, but only 6.5 games behind the first place Yankees. Then again, Boston’s run differential is -43. Then again, based on the track records of the players on the team, there’s reason to believe that figure doesn’t accurately represent the quality of the team going forward, only what they’ve done to date. You can already see the problem.

It’s not just idle speculation and fanboyism that leads someone to say the Red Sox still have a shot. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both publish team projections for the remaining games on the schedule. Both see the Red Sox as one of the best teams in the AL: FanGraphs has them in first outright and BP second to the Angels by a half game. But even so there are clearly a number of holes on the team, and a crunchy roster that doesn’t quite integrate as well as you’d like. Ben Cherington has talked about approaching the deadline not as a buyer or a seller, but as a team looking to improve itself long term. That makes sense, but it’s also a bit of a copout. What team doesn’t want to improve itself long term?

Short term, as in this season, the Red Sox have three main issues: they need to assemble a starting rotation, they need to find someone who can produce at first base, and they need a better bullpen. The problem is the way they approach those problems will vary depending on whether they are in a position to push toward the playoffs. For instance, you wouldn’t trade a significant piece to upgrade the bullpen while letting first base languish. Now, if there is a long term solution at first base COUGHTRADEEVERYTHINGFORGOLDSCHMIDTCOUGH then maybe you make that move and then if the market for relievers is insane you move on and try to patch from within or take a look again at the waiver deadline in a month. There are degrees here, for sure.

Then again, we’ve seen what straddling the line has looked like before. In 2014 Boston sold hard at the deadline, but they didn’t do it in a traditional vets-for-prospects type of way. They did deal Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that deal has paid dividends already, but they also dealt arguably their two best starting pitchers in John Lackey and Jon Lester for players already on major leaguer rosters, i.e. not prospects. Not even a year has passed and already those deals look awful. You couldn’t give Allen Craig away (we know because the Red Sox tried) let alone use him as a piece to acquire John Lackey, and Joe Kelly is hilarious on Twitter and also in Triple-A. Oops. Yoenis Cespedes came back for Lester and this off-season, instead of holding on to Cespedes, Boston dealt him to Detroit for Rick Porcello after signing Hanley Ramirez.

The Lester and Lackey deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them?

All those deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them? Is continuing down that road wrong at its core? It’s difficult to say.  It seems that last year wasn’t a case of the Red Sox front office misevaluating players so much as playing the lottery on what the players they acquired would become (with the exception of Craig). You wouldn’t condemn Ben Cherington if Yoan Moncada failed to reach his potential, for example. The Red Sox looked at him, believed in his talent, and paid what it cost to acquire him. After that, you try your best, but if it doesn’t happen, what are you gonna do? The same scenario applies to Kelly and, to a lesser extent, a post-injury Craig. That they turned out badly doesn’t necessitate a bad pre-trade thought process. Cespedes was different in that he was a known quantity. They didn’t get any discount on him when they acquired him either. But Craig and Kelly were both available because their value was down. They were upside plays, an attempt to get better players than might normally would be available in such a deal by accepting the risks that acquiring those specific players required.

Those risks haven’t panned out and it seems reasonable to criticize the Red Sox front office for taking those risks in the first place. The Red Sox aren’t typically the kind of team that needs to take expensive risks when it comes to players. They can pay more to minimize risk, and indeed Cherington has done exactly that when it comes to free agent signings (Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley) and player extensions (Porcello). Perhaps that’s the lesson of the 2014 deadline: don’t accept damaged goods just because you get a better price. Instead, acquire the best players you can and let that be your legacy.

With the roster in its current state, it seems the Red Sox are set to make deals again this deadline. The difference is, unlike last season, it’s hard to see who Boston would part with. Craig, Napoli, Daniel Nava, and Kelly have no trade value. Clay Buchholz is hurt. Koji Uehara has another season at $9 million due, which at his age and with his injury history likely hurts his trade value significantly. Maybe trading Junichi Tarawa would make sense, except the Red Sox bullpen needs Junichi Tazawa next season. Unless Boston is willing to sell core-type players or really shake up the roster by dealing guys they just acquired last off-season, there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster or even in Triple-A that can help a contending team. Which is a weird statement to make about a roster that projection systems are still saying is the best in the American League.

So in the end, we’re back at something like a grey area, at least from an outsider’s perspective. Boston can be both a buyer and a seller in that they need players and are also not particularly close to a playoff spot at the moment. They can also not be either as there are reasons to see the team as not good enough to make the playoffs and with a roster full of undesirable players to teams with rosters good enough to make the playoffs. Weird season, huh? The only thing is to hope, whatever the true takeaway points were from last season’s deadline deals, that Ben Cherington and company took them away. The Red Sox need a win at the deadline. The season may be drawing to a close.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Let’s go over those transactions, what the thoughts were behind them (presumably) and how that thinking may have changed 10 months later.

July 26

Trade 1: Jake Peavy and cash to the San Francisco Giants; Received Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Peavy was struggling with a 4.72 ERA. Of course as soon as he got to the Giants he became peak Peavy again, throwing 78 innings of 2.17 ERA ball, but that doesn’t matter to Boston. Good for Peavy, who won his second ring in as many years with the Giants and netted himself a two-year, $23 million deal to stay in San Francisco. He wasn’t needed in Boston anymore.

Who Boston Received: What matters here is that Escobar and Hembree came to Boston for half a season (what was remaining on Peavy’s deal at the time) of an older pitcher who wasn’t pitching well. Escobar, the get in this deal, just turned 23 years old. He’s a lefty with some speed on his fastball, two average off-speed pitches, and the potential to step into the back or, if everything breaks right, middle of a major league rotation sometime in the near future. His upside is about what the Red Sox gave up in Peavy (not the Cy Young Peavy, but the Red Sox version), but with seven years of control at a low cost instead of three months at a high cost. Right now he’s on the disabled list with left shoulder inflammation, which does not sound good, but then that’s the life of a pitcher.

The other player in the deal was Heath Hembree. The scouting report was that he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, but not a whole lot else, but he’s doing quite well in Triple-A this season with 12 strikeouts to only two walks in 12.1 innings.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s unclear how the careers of the two pitchers who came to Boston will play out, but as with all young pitchers, the Red Sox got themselves two lottery cards and, at least in one instance, a card with decent odds of turning into something. Even in light of Peavy’s success with the Giants this deal looks like a steal. A.

July 30

Trade 2: Felix Doubront to the Chicago Cubs; Received a player to be named later ( Marco Hernandez)

I’m going to skip the boilerplate and just say that Marco Hernandez has a .610 OPS in Double-A as a 22-year-old. Further I’m going to say Felix Doubront, after a short required post-Red Sox tour of duty with the Cubs, was released and as of this writing is out of baseball. Generally I don’t like deals where one club deals a major leaguer for a minor league nobody. Even if the major leaguer is not very good, he’s still a major leaguer, but in this case, this is effectively nobody for nobody. Moving on…

July 31

Trade 3: Traded Andrew Miller to the Baltimore Orioles; Received Eduardo Rodriguez

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball. Now, he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. That’s a tough standard to maintain, though. In 2014, Miller was worth 2.2 fWAR, seventh-best in baseball among relievers. Care to guess who was the seventh best reliever in baseball by the same metric in 2010? Matt Belsile. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position.

Who Boston Received: Eduardo, or Eddie, Rodriguez, came as a highly touted 21-year-old starter, one of the best prospects in Baltimore’s system. But he wasn’t supposed to be this good. Upon getting to Pawtucket, he altered the way he threw his changeup and took off from there, crushing the International League through the end of the 2014 season. This season he’s picked up mostly where he left off.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: This is exactly the kind of deal an out-of-contention team should make. Exactly. The fact that the Red Sox netted their best pitching prospect helps the optics of it, but even if Rodriguez blew out his arm tomorrow, a high upside starter for half a season of a reliever, even one as good as Miller, is a no-brainer. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position. A

Trade 4: Traded Stephen Drew and cash to the New York Yankees; Received Kelly Johnson

Again no boilerplate here. This one was pretty simple, if notable because of the organizations involved. The Red Sox had re-signed Drew to play shortstop on a contender. They were not a contender, thus they didn’t need Drew. The Yankees needed someone to play second base while they chased a Wild Card. Without Drew the Yankees didn’t need Kelly Johnson. The Red Sox, as it turned out, didn’t need him either, flipping him to Baltimore for Jemile Weeks and Ivan De Jesus at the end of August. De Jesus was cut loose and is now in the Reds organization while Weeks is (not hitting) in Pawtucket.

The end result here was the Red Sox didn’t have to pay the last two months of Drew’s contract. Mission accomplished!

Trade 5: Traded John Lackey, Corey Littrell, and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals; Received Allen Craig and Joe Kelly

Who Boston Gave Up: John Lackey had a year and a half of his contract left when Boston sent him to St. Louis. Due to a clause in his contract that specified he would play an additional year at the major league minimum if he missed a year with an arm injury, Lackey was a steal. The Red Sox had Lackey, a number two or three starter, at about $600,000, for a full season. That’s value right there, and the front office should have extracted value in return. They… sort of… did?

Who Boston Received: There was talk of receiving a top prospect but the Red Sox went a different route, opting for major league-ready players in return. They got, as you know, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig.

We’ll start with Craig. Clearly a buy-low attempt by the front office, the former All Star had received MVP votes in two seasons prior to suffering a Lisfranc injury that essentially wrecked his 2014 season. The hope was an offseason of recovery would do wonders and the Red Sox would have an All Star on a long-term, low-cost deal. So far, at least, this has not happened, and it has not happened in a profound way. Craig has been horrendous, batting .130/.235/.192 during his time with Boston. The problem is that if Craig isn’t hitting he doesn’t bring value on defense or on the bases, and he’s not especially great at getting on base either.

The Red Sox sent him to Pawtucket. His career isn’t over. There is still a chance to salvage some value here, but just the fact that I’m using the word “salvage” should make it clear how badly this part of the deal has gone. At this point the Red Sox couldn’t give Craig away, let alone trade him for something valuable like a year of a good starting pitcher.

Then there’s Joe Kelly. Kelly may or may not be a starting pitcher. There’s a case to be made that he’s pitched much better than his ERA shows, he’s young, he’s got a woof’n fastball, and he’s under team control until 2019. Those are all points in his favor. And even if he’s a bullpen arm, he’s got some value. One could make a case that Kelly is worth a season and a half of Lackey. I’m not sure it’s a case I’d make for this team as currently constructed, but you could construct an argument that wouldn’t be nuts.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s important to note that the Red Sox received nine player seasons for a year and a half of Lackey. Right now they have six plus of those player seasons remaining. The returns aren’t promising, but there is still time. D

Trade 6: Traded Jonny Gomes, Jon Lester and cash to the Oakland Athletics. Received Yoenis Cespedes and 2015 competitive balance round B pick

Who Boston Gave Up: We’ll dispense with Gomes because this isn’t about him in any way at all. The Red Sox season was over and he had no more usefulness left. This is all about Jon Lester, the best pitcher the Red Sox have developed since Roger Clemens. I’m not going to rehash all the contract negotiations here, but in the end the Red Sox determined they couldn’t meet Lester’s price. Then, during the off-season, they attempted to meet Lester’s price, which by that time had gone up. I’m shaking my head right now. I consider myself an objective analyst but it is admittedly difficult to be objective about this. Given where Lester was in his career, you can maybe understand why the Red Sox made the offer they did. But by the time the trade deadline rolled around the team had succeeded in poisoning the well to such an extent that they felt they couldn’t sign Lester. We now know with some certainty that had they come to Lester on that day and offered him the six year, $135 million deal or even a slightly lesser variant of the same deal they would present to him in three months, Lester would still be in Boston.

This would be a whole lot easier to stomach if the Red Sox didn’t need Lester but of the holes on this current team, the biggest is at the front of the starting rotation. Losing Lester means the team better have received something hugely intensely amazing in return…

aaaaaaaaaaaand they didn’t.

Who Boston Received: Yoenis Cespedes was and is a good power-hitting outfielder who the Red Sox might have thought they could sign long term. They couldn’t agree on terms and Cespedes was dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello, who the team then gave the money they initially offered to Jon Lester to. Porcello should do fine for Boston but unless he develops new strikeout skills, he’s not the pitcher Lester was.

By the letter of the law, the Red Sox turned a half season of Jon Lester into a season and a half of Rick Porcello, plus exclusive negotiation rights that turned into a four-year extension. Yet it’s difficult to look at it that way. Lester wanted to stay in Boston. The Red Sox needed him to stay in Boston. He should still be in Boston. But he isn’t, and it’s hard to look at that as anything other than a huge mistake.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: I really wanted to give this an F, but Porcello is a good pitcher and an asset, no matter what you think of his contract. C-/D+

The focus on major league players was an attempt to bolster the roster for a playoff run in the short term. Plainly put, that part has not worked. Craig and Kelly are disappointments or non-factors, and it’s not hard to see that the team would be better off with Lackey. Porcello is, again, fine, but he’s a step or two back from Lester. The fact that Craig is now in Triple-A adds an ironic twist to Boston’s insistence on bringing back major league players in these deals, as well as a sad statement on their lack of success. Oddly, the player who may present the largest impact to the major league team might be Eduardo Rodriguez.

Boston’s strategy appeared to be similar to how some teams (most teams?) approach the draft: accumulate as much talent as possible regardless of position and let things sort themselves out later. The Red Sox did that to some extent by acquiring Cespedes and then flipping him to Detroit for Porcello. Beyond that, Boston may have under-estimated their ability to upgrade the offense through free agency during the then coming off-season. If they knew adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were possibilities it makes you wonder why they’d want Allen Craig.

The story of the 2014 deadline deals isn’t over. We won’t know for a long time how this whole thing plays out. But right now, 10 months after the fact, with holes throughout the rotation and an overabundance of money if not talent committed to the outfield, it’s difficult to call those six days successful.

Top photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

C: Blake Swihart (-.16) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (Braves, .78)

I can’t believe it either, but Pierzynski is the only real option for starting catcher. Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t really in the big leagues and David Ross isn’t an everyday player. That’s pretty much it. For as much bad as we can say about Pierzynski — and we could go damn near forever — we can say very little about Swihart except that, thank the gods, he’s not Pierzynski. Let’s call it even if only from the standpoint of human decency.

1B: Mike Napoli (-.14) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (1.99)

This one’s not really close. Napoli is in a giant slump and Gonzalez has been the best hitter in the game so far this season, more or less. The ex-Sox leap ahead.

2B: Dustin Pedroia (1.24) vs. Mike Aviles (.44)

Pedroia has held the Red Sox’ second base position down for so long that we need to shoehorn Aviles in here just to round out the infield (unless we want Stephen Drew and his 0 WAR, which we don’t). The current Red Sox are as far ahead here as they are anywhere, and we’re more or less even again.

SS: Xander Bogaerts (.33) vs. Jose Iglesias (.40)

This would be Jed Lowrie (1.36) of the Astros, but Lowrie is hurt, as usual, and everybody loves Iggy. Bogaerts may yet become the ninth wonder of the world, but if you had a team with the offenses that both of these teams have, the defense would be the important part if you were playing the game today. Bogaerts’ future means squat here. Slightest advantage to the ex-Sox.

3B: Pablo Sandoval (.73) vs. Adrian Beltre (.05)

There are no losers here. Pats on the head for everyone. Sandoval has been better this year, but Beltre is Beltre. Let’s call it even, with the ex-Sox a tick ahead.

DH: David Ortiz (.07) vs. Victor Martinez (-.29)

Another case of two players I love, both of whom have started slowly. Advantage Red Sox, though, because come on. It’s a dead heat. It won’t stay that way.

Outfield: Hanley Ramirez (.72), Mookie Betts (1.26), Brock Holt (\o/, .44)
vs.
Yoenis Cespedes (.27), Jacoby Ellsbury (.97), Brandon Moss (.14)

Both of these teams would rotate their outfielders and both teams have good a good set of them beyond the starters; for the Red Sox, you have Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Rusney Castillo waiting in the wings, while for the ex-Sox, you have Coco Crisp and, yes, Carl Crawford. Did I say “Carl Crawford?” Advantage: Red Sox, who are about to get slaughtered.

Rotation
Clay Buchholz (.81), Rick Porcello (-.15), Justin Masterson (.15), Wade Miley (-.11), Joe Kelly (.03)
vs.
Jon Lester (.89), Anibal Sanchez (.50), Bartolo Colon (.71), John Lackey (.80) and Rubby de la Rosa (.10)

Advantage: The ex-Sox by five miles. Maybe 10 miles.

Closer: Koji Uehara (.21) vs. Andrew Miller (.49)

Andrew Miller has been almost as good as possible be this year. His ERA is 0.00 in 15+ innings. He has a 28:8 K:BB ratio. He has 13 saves. He’s a big reason the Yankees are in first place.

Koji is Koji.

Advantage: Red Sox, but the damage has been done. You’re going to want those ex-Sox in a single game, a seven-game series or a season. It’s okay, because the Red Sox are still (really!) damn good, and come into tonight’s game at 41 percent to make the playoffs and the highest expected winning percentage in the AL East, all while being three games below .500.

But yeah…

… if it doesn’t work out, just know the Ghost Sox are doing work out here, too.

Photo by Caylor Arnold/USA Today Sports Images