Koji is inextricably tied to the 2013 championship team, of course. His campaign that year was one of the most uniquely dominant pitching performances I can remember, high-fiving his way through countless high-leverage innings on the way to the title. In honor of the end of Koji’s MLB career, I spent some time thinking about how his unbelievable 2013 season stacks up against other performances in recent Red Sox history. Let’s take a look at the competition and see who boasts the best individual bullpen season among Red Sox teams since 2007.

Honorable Mention: Junichi Tazawa, 2012

44 IP, 26.2 K%, 2.9 BB% 0.20 HR/9, 1.42 ERA, 1.82 FIP, 2.14 DRA

I wanted to make sure I mentioned Junichi Tazawa in this piece because, while I don’t think he has an individual season that quite ranks among the best of the past ten years, it feels as though he’s been underrated historically among Boston fans. Images of his rough final seasons in Boston are perhaps a little too fresh in people’s minds, but Tazawa was a workhorse for the Red Sox who deserves some warmer recognition.

Tazawa started the 2012 season pitching for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he hit the ground running as soon as he came up to the big-league club to replace Mark Melancon (remember him?). A lot of praise is (deservedly) spent on Koji’s absurd aversion to walks in 2013, but Tazawa actually managed a lower walk rate in 2012, allowing only five free passes in his 44 major league innings. Perhaps most notably, Tazawa was a horse – he pitched 86.1 innings between Triple-A in the majors in 2012 and exceeded the 60 IP mark in each of the next two years, while pitching almost exclusively high-leverage situations. John Farrell leaned on Tazawa almost to a fault, and although his overuse created issues in later years, he was an indispensable piece of the bullpen puzzle for some time.

Tazawa never got the kind of glory a traditional closer would — high-leverage, non-closing relievers have historically struggled to get consistent recognition — but I haven’t forgotten about him.

5 — Daniel Bard, 2010

74.2 IP, 25.8 K%, 10.2 BB%, 0.72 HR/9, 1.93 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.96 DRA

Statistically, Daniel Bard’s 2010 might not quite compare to the other seasons mentioned on this list, but it’s the context of his brief run as the team’s setup man that gets him here. Bard once looked like the future of the Red Sox bullpen, a potent fireballer with some of the most ridiculous stuff I’ve ever seen. Across his first three seasons in the majors, he averaged close to 98 miles per hour on his fastball and 84 on his notorious wipeout slider, making hitters look completely futile with hilarious regularity. This utterly absurd, 99 mph something that he dropped on Nick Swisher in 2011 might be the greatest individual pitch in MLB history.

Evidently, it wasn’t meant to last. As we all should well remember, a doomed attempt to convert Bard into a full-time starter destroyed first his command, then his confidence. After the wheels came off in 2012, Bard shuttled around the minor league teams of the Red Sox and other franchise, trying desperately to regain some of his former self. It didn’t work, and this past January, he retired at 32 years old.

In 2010, though, Bard was at the peak of his powers, and the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role. The warning signs were hanging around — the walks in particular were a little too high — but he had that sparkling sub-2.00 ERA and he certainly looked good, so we were all willing to look past it. His 2011 might have been a little more steady in terms of peripherals, as he cut back on the walks significantly, but Bard Fever was never stronger than that first full season in the majors. He may have washed out dramatic fashion a couple years later, but I’ll always remember him for that dizzying peak.

4 — Andrew Miller, 2014

42.1 IP, 40.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 0.43 HR/9, 2.34 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 2.00 DRA

These days, we know Andrew Miller as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, and the foremost example of managers prioritizing high-leverage situations over traditional save situations. He’s not actually the Indians’ closer, but he’s their best bullpen arm and a force of nature in the late innings.

Years ago, though, Miller was a struggling journeyman starter who couldn’t establish himself in the majors. Miller had no command over his pitches, and hitters more or less had their way with him — in some ways, it was not entirely dissimilar from Bard’s late career. Miller hit his nadir in 2010, when he posted an ERA north of 8.00 across 30.2 innings in the majors and one above 6.00 in 85.1 innings in Triple-A.

The Red Sox got their hands on Miller with a minor league deal thereafter, and by 2012, they’d finally embraced him as a full-time reliever. It was exactly what he needed; the walks came down and the strikeouts went way up. Miller’s 2014 was the peak of this Boston reinvention, short-lived as it was. He struck out over 40 percent of the batters he faced and combined with Uehara and Tazawa to form one of the most formidable late-inning units the Red Sox have fielded in recent years.

Unfortunately, they were formidable, but futile. The 2014 Red Sox were terrible, falling to the bottom of the AL East immediately after the 2013 championship, and if there’s one thing terrible teams do, it’s trade their relievers. Relievers, after all, are the most immediately expendable way for struggling franchises to bring quick prospect value to their farm team. Miller went to Baltimore, and while Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a valuable starting pitcher for years to come, it still hurt a bit to see Miller dominating the 2016 playoffs with Cleveland en route to their World Series loss to the Cubs.

3 — Jonathan Papelbon, 2007

58.1 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 0.77 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.41 DRA

You knew he was going to pop up here eventually.

Arguments can be made either way between Papelbon’s 2006 and 2007 seasons, but for me, his integral role in the 2007 championship gives that year the edge. Papelbon was a buzzsaw for his entire career in Boston, and the closest answer the Red Sox have ever had to the greatness of Mariano Rivera. He had a manic, unhinged energy on the mound, and while that persona would go on to cause him problems in later years, it made him an instant fan favorite at Fenway Park. There were few more exciting moments in a Red Sox game than Papelbon walking out to “Shipping Up To Boston.”

Papelbon was essentially the spitting image of the traditional closer role, a fastball-centric fireballer who lived and died with his mid-90s four-seamer. He was also remarkably durable, pitching 60 innings or more in nine of his 10 seasons from 2006 to 2015. Ironically, 2007 was the one he didn’t, but he still threw 58.1 frames and appeared in 59 games. These days, he likely wouldn’t stand out quite as much in the current landscape of MLB relievers, but for the late 2000s, he was perpetually near the top.

In addition to his regular season performance, Papelbon threw 10.2 scoreless frames in the playoffs en route to the Red Sox second championship in four years. He was a consistently great playoff performer, with an ERA of exactly 1.00 in his 27 career postseason innings, but would never make another postseason appearance after the team’s short-lived stay in 2009. Papelbon flamed out as aggressively as he pitched, but he’s among the most important bullpen arms in the history of the franchise. The fact that he’s only third on this list is a testament to how great our next two entries really were.

2 — Koji Uehara, 2013

74.1 IP, 38.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 0.61 HR/9, 1.09 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 1.78 DRA

In 2013, Koji Uehara struck out 101 batters and walked only nine. Think about that for a minute.

If his career started 10 years earlier, teams would likely have laughed at the idea of using a pitcher with an 88 mph fastball as their closer. It was still a fairly weird concept in 2013, and he didn’t even begin the season as the closer. Closers have always traditionally tended towards the “97 mph flamethrower” type, which makes Koji one of the most unique pitchers to fill that role in recent baseball history. He didn’t have crazy velocity, but he did have a dominant sinker and a supernatural command of the strike zone, and in that particular 2013, hitters had no idea what to do with him. He was simply impossible to square up on. He allowed only five home runs on the season, and had a line drive rate of only 11.3 percent. For reference, Papelbon’s career-best mark in that regard was 15.3 percent.

The magic was fairly short-lived. For his following two seasons, Koji was merely very good rather than transcendent. Hitters started to catch up, and home runs became a greater bugaboo as he aged – he allowed twice as many in 2014 despite pitching 10 fewer innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped from above 10 in 2013-14 to around five in 2015-16, still a solid mark but not superhuman. In essence, he just got old.

That 2013 season was magical for a lot of reasons. The Red Sox were a team of cast-offs and underappreciated players like Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew. In other words, Koji was right at home. A return to the Red Sox this season was never really realistic — the Red Sox have more than a few right-handed relievers and his level of play isn’t where it once was — but it’s still bittersweet to see him leaving the league. Hopefully the Yomiuri Giants are prepared for some aggressive high-fives.

And somehow, it still wasn’t the greatest season we’ve seen from a reliever in recent seasons. That one came just last year.

1 — Craig Kimbrel, 2017

69 IP, 49.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 1.43 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.89 DRA

The Red Sox paid a hefty price to acquire Kimbrel two seasons ago with a prospect haul beyond what you’d typically expect for a reliever in most situations, especially considering he was coming off a 2015 season in San Diego that wasn’t quite up to his typical level. While effective, his 2016 season wasn’t quite the performance you’d want to see from a player with such a price tag, either; he walked an enormous amount of batters en route to his first season with an ERA above 3.00. Some of the sheen started to come off one of the greatest bullpen arms in history.

Because of all this, I think it’s actually possible we collectively didn’t appreciate Kimbrel’s 2017 enough. It may well have been the best season of his career. Kimbrel struck out just shy of half the batters he faced — astonishingly not even a career-best in that regard — and he did it with the best command of the strike zone he’s ever shown. If there’s ever been some kind of weakness to Kimbrel’s game, it’s that he historically issued too many free passes (career walk rate of 9.5 percent), but it seems he finally just decided to… not do that anymore, I guess? Kimbrel he walked only 5.5 percent of the batters he faced, stranded 93.9 percent of the baserunners he allowed, gave up only 11 earned runs, and pitched 69 of the nicest innings from a reliever in Red Sox history.

While the 2018 Red Sox bullpen isn’t exactly a known quantity — Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are returning from long absences due to injury, while Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are solid but unspectacular middle-inning guys — Kimbrel is money in the bank. He’s among the greatest relievers in baseball history, and he somehow still seems to be getting better. If he continues to limit his free passes like he did last year, it’s entirely possible he could replace his own spot on this list. Wouldn’t that be something?

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.

I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I’m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn’t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that — if you remember, that’s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.

It was a simple decision: “Maybe I’ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn’t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn’t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.

The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn’t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn’t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.

I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I’ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.

If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them — I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities — Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency — and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.

Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.

It feels as though there’s just more of a plan behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history — Al Horford and Gordon Hayward — came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two — Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge — building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two awful contracts that destroyed his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.

The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.

Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.

Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.

And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t need Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.

This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.

This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.

My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have — it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.

But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally off with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz — and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.

I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season — too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here — if in fact there is one.

I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox were forced to go through a lot of infielders in 2017, and Hernandez going down was one of the reasons why.

What Went Right

Not a lot, really. It’s hard to have good times when your season ended 60 plate appearances in, and you weren’t even on the Opening Day roster to begin with. But he did have one cool moment, way back at the tail-end of April, which started with Hernandez beating old friend Koji Uehara to first base to get himself an infield single:

And that culminated with Hernandez scoring the go-ahead run later that inning:

See, that’s pretty neat. Silver linings and all that.

What Went Wrong

Everything else.

He wasn’t on the 25-man roster for Opening Day because the Red Sox thought they needed Steve Selsky more than him, despite a good Grapefruit League showing by Hernandez. Then he was finally added to the roster when Xander Bogaerts went on the bereavement list.

A month later, Hernandez would have to be taken out of a game after hurting himself:

Seems innocuous, right? Just a little pinch in the shoulder? It wasn’t. He was put on the disabled list the next day with a left shoulder subluxation, and eight days after that, it was announced that he would need season-ending surgery on said shoulder. Poor Marco.

What To Expect

It’s hard to analyze Hernandez’s hitting in the majors with just 116 plate appearances total, but he can hit a bit with a little power mixed in there. His last stint in the minors came with a .309/.343/.444 slash line, so it’ll be a waste to have him stay there for much longer. He’ll probably pan out and be a solid major league contributor when all is said and done, provided he recovers well from surgery and he doesn’t get bounced off the roster for a worse player.

However, with Dustin Pedroia needing several months to recover from knee surgery, Hernandez is, as of today, the leading candidate to start in his place. The Red Sox have soured a little on Brock Holt, as they might’ve (finally!) realized that he can’t be a day-to-day starter. The other options at second base are Deven Marrero – a player who I’ve said the phrase “if he could only hit” about far too much – and Tzu-Wei Lin, who did well during his time in the majors in 2017, but will probably need more plate appearances in Pawtucket more than anything. With Eduardo Nunez coming back not a sure thing, Hernandez currently tops the depth chart at the keystone.

Had Pedroia been healthy, Hernandez might’ve faced the same outcome as he did in 2017: as the 26th man for a 25-man roster. With some playing time opening up, we’ll see more of him than we have in the past two seasons combined, and he’ll hopefully come out of it looking like a player with a little upside that won’t hurt you when he plays. He’s got the skills. Now he just needs the time to show them off.

Photo by Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports

The hours after the news of the Sale trade broke on Tuesday were predictably filled with Takes, both hot and otherwise. Most of Red Sox Nation – myself included – is thrilled by the prospect of the current Cy Young holder as a number three starter. Remember when this was supposed to be a quiet offseason? It is clear now that a 6-foot-6 asterisk was attached to that proclamation in the shape of Chris Sale.

Much of the national media now has the Sox pegged as the odds-on favorite in the American League. Sports Illustrated and CBSSports’ Jonah Keri (RIP Grantland), opines that the move puts the team in the driver’s seat in the AL. Ben Lindbergh over at The Ringer agrees with his former co-worker. Most all fans and baseball analysts liked the trade for, really, both colors of Sox. Rob Bradford makes the case at WEEI.com that this was the biggest trade in recent Red Sox history. The closest to a negative reaction to the trade, from what I read, was this column by WEEI’s John Tomase fretting about Dave Dombrowski’s notable propensity to empty the prospect war chest in order to achieve the all-important Win Now. Even Tomase’s gripe is more with the totality of Dombrowski’s work, and he acknowledges the boon that is acquiring Chris Sale.

There is a clear and not-hard-to-decipher consensus that the trade makes the Red Sox demonstrably better heading into the 2017 season. And, considering the Nationals on Wednesday traded the White Sox arguably baseball’s top pitching prospect in Lucas Giolito for a guy with ‘Spanky’ in his Twitter handle, the price the Red Sox paid for Sale seems relatively reasonable.

Tuesday saw the Red Sox deal four of the nine top players in the farm system (including Luis Alexander Basabe in the move for Sale and Mauricio Dubon for reliever Tyler Thornburg), per SoxProspects.com. So in a way, Tomase is totally right: the cupboard looks pretty bare. Rafael Devers and 18-year-old Jason Groome are the two remaining genuinely promising (though you may be bullish on some others) players in the minor leagues.

That being said, let’s remember a significant reason for this truth: a lot of former prospects are performing at the Major League level! Andrew Benintendi looked ready to play an everyday role in left field in his limited and injury-interrupted audition late in 2016. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t turn 24 until April and posted a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts after returning from Pawtucket in July. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are All-Stars that just turned 24 in October. (Aside: my heart grew three sizes after realizing that Mookie and Xander were born six days apart as I imagined them throwing joint birthday parties. Anyways.)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox are young, are good right now, and just got better right now. As Ben Buchanan lays out for Over the Monster, this trade was the best way for the team to make a move for Sale if they were going to do so; no Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rodriguez or other major league talent was involved. They just took what was a 93-win team and added probably the best non-Clayton Kershaw lefty in the world. That feels pretty good.

Before all that craziness transpired, the Red Sox had made a trade with the Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg, who threw 67 innings last year for Milwaukee to the tune of a 2.15 ERA and .940 WHIP. Craig Kimbrel has a very talented new set-up man.

The more minor trade has an array of interesting consequences for the team going forward, both significant and trivial. For one, the trade included Travis Shaw, meaning Ding Dong City either a. needs a new mayor or b. is a mobile municipality of a kind heretofore unknown. Also, the Red Sox sent Mauricio Dubon to the Brewers, breaking the heart of colleague Matt Collins but perhaps more importantly allowing for this magnificent Twitter interaction to occur.

From a baseball standpoint, the combination of the two deals makes clear the team’s commitment to and faith in Pablo Sandoval playing third base next season. As Jason Mastrodonato reports in the Herald, Dombrowski thinks Sandoval is “ready to come back.” And Sandoval seems to be too. In fact, he might even be in the Best Shape Of His Life.

Check out the slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval https://t.co/v0YffLEA9G #RedSox pic.twitter.com/8s6AWWscc8

— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) December 7, 2016

As Alex Speier points out in the Globe, the hefty price for Thornburg reflects the incredibly high cost and value of relievers in today’s climate. Andrew Miller’s postseason messed with some peoples’ heads, apparently. Since Alex published his piece, the Cubs traded noted masher of baseballs and very promising talent Jorge Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. As I’m writing this, the Yankees just signed Aroldis Chapman for five years and $86 million. So, yeah. Go back in time and train yourself to be a set-up man.

Finally, the Thornburg acquisition closed the door on the possibility of Koji Uehara returning in 2017, Dombrowski said. This is not a shocking development but a sad one nonetheless. Thanks for the memories Koji, we’ll miss you and your logic-defying sinker.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Over the past two weeks, most BP Boston authors have published 2017 Offseason Oracle columns in which we’ve gone in depth over what we think will happen (not what we think should happen) this offseason. Go read them. For a quick overview of what we think is in Boston’s future, refer to this handy chart:

Look forward to our “where we went wrong” post in March!

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox have been considered a front-running team throughout the season. Their major league-leading offense has propelled them to a number of blowout wins, but they’re also 17-22 in one-run games entering Sunday’s action. Pitchers’ duels, meanwhile, still leave me uneasy. The Sox have recently shown a flair for the dramatic, and it’s coming at the most appropriate time. One of the beautiful things about baseball is its lack of a clock. The game is truly never over until the final out is made. And Boston is making the most of those outs.

Comeback wins have been the norm of late. That was most evident in the team’s matchups with the Blue Jays and Yankees. The Sox rallied multiple times on Sunday, Sept. 11, to take the rubber match of their three-game set in Toronto, highlighted by David Ortiz’s go-ahead three-run blast in the sixth inning.

Thursday’s win was impossible to forget. The Red Sox trailed the Yankees 5-1 in the eighth, then 5-2 with two outs in the ninth before collecting three straight hits and winning on Hanley Ramirez’s mammoth walk-off home run off a fastball from Dellin Betances. It was arguably the biggest win of the season.

Saturday’s win was a little less dramatic, but equally exciting and certainly important. The Red Sox overcame a pair of three-run deficits thanks to a three-run, three-hit, three-RBI day from Xander Bogaerts, three hits from Ramirez and another RBI from Ortiz.

The Red Sox’s offense, one might say, has been clutch. They’re hitting a major-league best .289 with runners in scoring position this season, and also lead the way with a .264 average with runners in scoring position with two outs. That success has been on display in their recent comebacks. The Sox, however, haven’t necessarily looked clutch throughout many points of the season. There were stretches throughout July and August when the offense was sputtering, not the starting pitching or even the bullpen. Some of that was chalked up to a hot team going cold, or the late-season schedule catching up to them.

You also can’t forget the Red Sox’s youth and inexperience. Sure, Mookie Betts is having an MVP-caliber season, but Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have struggled since August, Travis Shaw might be the team’s worst hitter and Andrew Benintendi still only has 23 major-league games under his belt. Some of those deficiencies are still apparent. But fortunately for the Red Sox, there’s still firepower left in the bats of Ortiz, Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia. Those veterans are the guys leading the comeback victories. Their September runs have Boston in this position.

Let’s start with Ortiz. He’s slashing .364/.434/.682 in September, bringing his true average up to a team-high .328 for the year. He’s homered three times and driven in 14 runs. No two blasts were bigger than the one in Toronto eight days ago, and Thursday’s solo homer in the eighth before the ninth-inning rally.

Ramirez, meanwhile, is playing the best he has since signing with the Sox last season. His two home runs Sunday night give him nine for the month and owns a .356/.415/.746 slash line. Many of those hits this month have come in key situations.  

Then there’s Pedroia. His season has been MVP-caliber as well and he’s been by far Boston’s best hitter over the past two months, slashing .406/.440/.475 in August and .359/.391/.453 thus far in September. The latter two have been especially easy to forget this season thanks to Ortiz’s retirement tour and the continued progression of the Red Sox’s young players, but they’ve made their presence felt at the most pivotal time of year.

If we’re going to discuss clutch, I’d be foolish be leave out the bullpen. On Sept. 2, Matt Kory reminded us all of just how terrible the bullpen has been for most of the season, especially in high-leverage situations. The Sox’s pen has since turned a corner, and it’s what has made these dramatic wins possible. Koji Uehara has yet to allow a run since his return from the disabled list, looking more like his former self. Matt Barnes has surrendered just four hits since Aug. 30, and is starting to be leaned on in later innings. Brad Ziegler has given up a single unearned run in his last 11.1 innings. And as I wrote last week, Joe Kelly’s stuff out of the bullpen has been, well, great. I never thought I’d say this a month ago, but this bullpen is becoming reliable.

These are good times for the Red Sox. The drama of the tight division race and the comeback victories have only amped up the excitement. The Sox look like a clutch team. Their offense with runners in scoring position, veteran leadership and bullpen performances make it easy to believe. A couple weeks ago I told a friend I would be happy with the Sox simply making the playoffs. Their recent play has me wanting even more out of this team. If all goes the way it has been lately, that won’t be too much to ask.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Given all that, you can see that this three-gamer in Toronto is pretty important. We here at BP Boston aren’t typically in the habit of previewing every series. Maybe we should be, but the season is so long and there are only so many John Farrell jokes and on-pace-for stats one person can legally be subjected to over a six-month span. So we mostly don’t. But this! This is an exception, because this is very important. It’s not the playoffs, but if you wanted to look at the next 23 games as a series between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees, you wouldn’t be all that wrong. So, with that out of the way, hello. I’m Matt and together we’re going to preview the heck out of this series.

SERIES NOTES

1. The Blue Jays starters have the fourth-best ERA in baseball this season and the best in the American League. The Red Sox are tenth on that list.

2. Over the past 30 days, Red Sox starters have the second-best ERA in baseball and the best in the American League. The Blue Jays are 15th on that list.

3. Make some sense out of points 1 and 2, please. I double dog dare you.

4. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is at it again, and by “it” I mean being incredibly good. Has he been better than Red Sox MVP hopeful Mookie Betts? By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Betts has been better.

5. By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Mike Trout has been better than Betts though so, please people, I love Mookie Betts too, but can we give the best player in baseball the best player award?

6. Who is the starting third baseman for the Red Sox? Yoan Moncada was a 21-year-old prospect in Double-A, then he was the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox, and now he’s a 21-year-old prospect with a lousy albeit small batting record and a seat on the bench. For now it looks like Travis Shaw’s job to lose.

7. Can Shaw lose it again? Considering his body of work you’d sure think so, but where does Farrell go now? Moncada again? Maybe for a short period of time but you have to think Farrell will try harder to keep both feet out of his mouth by declaring the rookie the unquestioned starter again. Maybe Aaron Hill has something left in the tank? Maybe Aaron Hill has a tank! That could be helpful.

8. The Red Sox bullpen has been mediocre this year and downright bad recently but consider: the return of Koji from the DL (one perfect inning pitched, two strikeouts) and the new and improved Joe Kelly (three IP, five hits, no runs, five strikeouts, no walks) might just be the keys to… drat. I almost made it through that sentence with a straight face.

9. It’s true Koji and probably Kelly to a lesser extent could help the bullpen, but that’s mostly because they couldn’t make it worse. There’s no harm in flicking lit matches at your neighbor’s house but if it’s already engulfed in flames. Flick all you want.

10. The Jays bullpen has been about as lousy as Boston’s. The differences seem to be three:

    1. The Red Sox pen has been hurt by walks

    2. The Blue Jays pen has been hurt by home runs

    3. Roberto Osuna, who has given up seven homers in 60 innings, has been better than Craig Kimbrel, who has walked 22 in 44.1 innings.

    4. You see what I’m saying here.

11. Both teams crush the snot out of the ball.

12. The Red Sox crush more snot out of more balls, making them better snot-crushers out of balls. Their certificate is surely in the mail.

GAME 1: Rick Porcello vs. Marco Estrada

1. You have to go back to July 24 to find the last time Rick Porcello gave up four or more runs in a start. Before that, you have to back to June 23. So, fun with arbitrary endpoints: since June 24, Rick Porcello has given up three or fewer runs in every start except one.

2. Marco Estrada was the pitching surprise of last season. He had one of the lowest BABIPs in baseball history and then he started pulling the same garbage again this season. But then the second half of the season rolled around and, despite most of his underlying numbers looking the same, Estrada’s ERA has shot up from below three to 5.00. The baseball gods do exist and they find Marco Estrada’s precious ERA hilarious.

3. David Ortiz will not be pitching today, but he will be back in the lineup for the first time since last Sunday. Big Papi has 23 games left and, maybe, hopefully a few more if the Sox can win a few more of those 23 than they lose. Don’t think Big Papi doesn’t know that. I’d suggest buckling that safety belt.

GAME 2: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. J.A. Hap

1. What is Eduardo Rodriguez? Here are his runs allowed for all his starts dating back to July 27: 3, 1, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0. He’s either been amazing (two shutouts, one cut short by injury), very good (multiple one run starts), or a mess. In the first of those three run performances he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, and in the second he didn’t make it out of the fourth. Then he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning last start. I suppose this is what promise looks like up close. If he gets on a roll, oh gosh, baseball would need to watch the heck out.

2. Happ is, as far as I can tell, Estrada. He’s been very good, much better in fact, than anyone had a right to expect. But, like Estrada, over the past month he’s come apart a little bit, mostly due to giving up home runs.

3. There’s a narrative out there that the Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handers, which would seem to give an advantage to Happ, but it’s not true. The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against right-handers and an .811 OPS against left-handers. Not that OPS is the greatest statistic but it paints the picture just fine.

4. At this point Red Sox will have faced two of Toronto’s best three starters and have a very real shot at winning both games.

GAME 3: Clay Buchholz vs. Aaron Sanchez

1. This is the game where Toronto has the clear advantage in the pitching matchup. Sanchez hasn’t been as dominant of late but he’s been almost as effective. The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks have come up, both of which could be a result of him plowing past 170 innings (he’s two thirds short), about 35 beyond his career high. The Jays have been toying with the idea of shutting Sanchez down, moving to a six-man rotation, skipping his starts, and/or sending him to outer space, all with the intent of limiting his innings. Problem is, they’re in a dogfight for the AL East and indeed the playoffs and they need this guy.

2. Clay Buchholz stars in, As The World Turns. Buchholz went from sure second starter to back end of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the bullpen guy, to vital rotation piece. The latest incarnation of The Clay is indebted to to Steven Wright’s injured shoulder for the opportunity, but his non-injured shoulder for seizing it. In his last three starts, Buchholz has pitched 19 innings, given up three runs, struck out 18, and walked two. He’s pitching like the guy he was supposed to be at the beginning of the year. Remember Derek Lowe’s 2004 season? How weird would that be?

The totality of the series is going to result in one of three things: the Blue Jays sweeping and taking a two game lead over Boston, the Red Sox sweeping and taking a four game lead over Toronto, or a split of some sort keeping things pretty close. In fact, the Red Sox are in a very good position because by winning just one of these, they insulate themselves from losing a share of first place.

Of course, they could do much better than that. We’ve waited all year for this team to realize its potential and kick things into a higher gear. This is as good an opportunity as they’ve yet seen. This year’s Red Sox have specialized in squandering good opportunities but they still have a few chances left. The season isn’t over yet.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

It was always kind of weird that Yoan Moncada was handed the everyday third base job so quickly. Sure, Travis Shaw had been struggling mightily for an extended stretch, but Moncada looked raw at the plate against minor-league pitching and was far from a sure thing in the majors. Sure enough, he struggled so badly that Shaw got another chance after just a few games. He took full advantage in his first opportunity, smacking a go-ahead two-run home run deep into the right field seats (+.229) giving the Red Sox their first lead of the game.

Bottom Play (WPA)
The Bottom Play of Wednesday’s game is brought to you by National League Baseball, the preferred brand of baseball of senior citizens everywhere. After yet another go-ahead RBI by Shaw in the fourth, the Red Sox had runners on first and second with just one out. In other words, they had a prime chance to extend their lead even more. Unfortunately, David Price had to hit. In some unfathomably smart strategizing that you only see in the NL, John Farrell had his hitter who literally can’t hit square to bunt. Unbelievably, that didn’t work, and Price ended up striking out (-.042.). Get the National League right the hell outta here imo.

The bottom play for the Padres also came in the fourth when Yangervis Solarte lined out (-.037) with a runner on second base and a chance to give San Diego the lead.

David Price Looked Good, Again

The Red Sox always needed David Price to be great if they were going to make noise late into the season and he is turning things around. Sure, this game came against a bad offense in a great pitcher’s park, but he certainly passed the eye test. His changeup was fantastic, and he was able to locate his fastball for most of the night. He did have a few stretches where he was giving up hits in bunches but many of them were ground balls that found holes. Even when he was giving up hard contact, he was able to work out of innings without allowing too much damage. The Red Sox will need more of this Price as they get set to play these important series down the stretch.

Hanley Ramirez Cannot Be Stopped

Hanley Ramirez continued his red-hot second half on Wednesday, although the box score will not do it justice. He did have one solo home run, and that on its own is worth noting given how much power he’s shown lately. However, he also hit two bombs to center field that were caught just short of the wall. Another combined six feet and he’d have had a three-home run night.

Koji is Back

The Red Sox long search for an eighth inning man might be coming to an end. Koji Uehara finished his long stint on the disabled list, making his first appearance since July. He threw a quick, stress-free 1-2-3 inning with a strikeout. Again, this is not the most strenuous test and it’s far from guaranteed that he’s fully back, but this was an encouraging sign from a spot where the team desperately needed it.

Don’t Boo Brock Holt

Padres fans wanted to see David Ortiz. Instead, they got to see All Star Brock Holt. They booed the mustachioed utility man, and he made them pay with a home run. Don’t boo All-Stars.

Coming Next

The Red Sox could’ve done more in that nine-game stretch against subpar competition, but they did enough to get them into first place all by themselves. Now begins the real test. Their tough stretch to end the season begins on Friday in Toronto with Rick Porcello taking on Marco Estrada. First pitch is at 7:07.

Top Play (WPA)

There were only two run-scoring hits in this game. One went 442 feet. David Ortiz does it again.

Seriously, how is he doing this at 40? Ortiz tops the list in this one with a home run worth .145 WPA. He jumped all over a very awful cutter from Jake Peavy that just kind of floated out over the plate. Didn’t help that it was going 85 mph either. That’s a batting practice pitch.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Right after the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning, Rick Porcello handed out a leadoff walk to Buster Posey in the 4th. He then got Brandon Crawford to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, pinning a -.096 WPA on the San Francisco shortstop. Sadly, there isn’t a video for this one. But you know what there is a video of? Jackie Bradley Jr. doubling up on Jarrett Parker. Boy. that’s a sweet play to watch.

Key Moment

I wish I could put something happier here. I really do. But Koji getting hurt is big.

Turns out it was a strained pectoral, not a shoulder issue. That’s the silver lining right there, even if it still means a DL stint. It also means Brad Ziegler, Red Sox Closer. This bullpen is about to get weird. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but at least we have Joe Kelly striking out everyone as a reliever in Triple-A.

Trend to Watch

Rick Porcello’s incredible strikeout numbers so far. He has 100 strikeouts to 23 walks so far this year, good for a 4.35 K/BB, which is 16th-best in the league, right up there with Masahiro Tanaka, Corey Kluber and Zack Greinke. That’s a huge factor in how he’s been successful thus far, along with his drastically improved HR/9, which is down 25 points from a year ago. The grounders are still there, but the ball is flying out of the park a lot less often, and he’s not getting hit as hard as he was. This is the Porcello we wanted to see.

Coming Next

The Red Sox take on the Giants for the final time this season, and newly-acquired Drew Pomeranz will toe the rubber against Matt Cain.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Boston’s pen currently features seven relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Robbie Ross, Heath Hembree, Tommy Layne and Matt Barnes. We’ll organize them into three tiers. The top tier includes the first three guys on the list. Say what you will about Kimbrel’s increased home run and walk rate, he’s still an elite option. Koji is visibly aging but for now he’s in this class. Beyond the thought of Tazawa facing anyone who has ever been a part of the Blue Jays organization, he’s a rock in Boston’s pen.

Then there’s the next group. That’s Ross and Hembree. Ross has been susceptible to the home run and he still walks more than you’d like, but he’s been effective. Hembree has been, if anything, even better, but he’s such a fly-ball pitcher that the fear of homers raining from the sky is still there. All in all though, two effective if not elite relievers.

Then there’s the back end of Layne and Barnes. Some might put Barnes in the middle tier, but I don’t because he simply walks too many guys. He’s not immune to homers either, though it’s not a huge problem for him. Mostly he’s a competent reliever, but not an option for the back end of pen because he simply doesn’t throw enough quality strikes or, really, enough strikes. Layne is, I’m sure a nice fellow, but he’s really just a guy. The walks are high, the strikeouts league average or a touch below from the pen, and he doesn’t dominate lefties like you’d think a guy with his arm angle would.

When looking to upgrade the pen, it’s this last tier of guys that I’d look to improve upon. You never like to lose talent for nothing, but this team is all in on winning this season and frankly Layne isn’t doing much to help. Barnes could someday move into the second tier if his command improves, but stashing him back in Pawtucket shouldn’t be any kind of impediment to improving the bullpen in Boston right now.

There are two groups from where to draw that improvement. The first is starting pitchers who have flamed out at the major league level. That would be Roenis Elias and Joe Kelly. Kelly is currently hurt, and his groin injury is coming along slowly. If he returns this season, it should be as a reliever in Pawtucket. See if his stuff plays up in a bullpen role and go from there. In the meantime, Roenis Elias represents an intriguing replacement for Tommy Layne, assuming the team needs a lefty-on-lefty only reliever. Elias has been successful against left handers in his career, holding them to a .658 OPS with a 2.67 K/BB ratio. He has some speed on his fastball and deception from the left side, both of which could play up a bit in the pen. It must be acknowledged that taking a starter and making him a situational lefty isn’t exactly squeezing out all the marrow out of the bone, but in this season of Going All In, maybe it merits a shot.

In his last 10 appearances, Light has thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs.

The second group is composed of minor league relievers Pat Light and Kyle Martin. Light is likely the better known of the two, having already made his major league debut earlier this season. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and he’s reported to have reached 100 mph at times. He keeps hitters off that heat with a splitter and slider. The overall package can be downright dominating when the command is there, and after an initial bump in the road at Pawtucket after his call up, Light has been dominant. In his last 10 appearances he’s thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs. Overall he has 32 strikeouts and 13 walks in 26.1 innings in Triple-A and all with only one homer allowed. He’s spent time in Triple-A and made an appearance in Boston, so it’s unlikely the 25-year-old would be wowed by the lights (sorry not sorry). (Editor’s note: it is indeed Light who got the call to the majors to replace Eduardo Rodriguez on the roster.)

Pat Light isn’t the only one in Triple-A to pitch well out of the pen. Kyle Martin, the Red Sox 9th round pick in 2013 out of Texas A&M University has been putting up numbers that surpass Light’s. His strikeouts are up (11.3 K/9), his walks down (2.3. BB/9), and his ground ball tendencies help keep the homers down as well with just one given up in 35 innings so far this season. Martin does carry a 4.11 ERA, but his K and BB numbers are quite good and he keeps the ball in the park well so his potential as a fifth or sixth bullpen arm isn’t diminished.

None of these guys are the next Kimbrel, but deployed properly they can be upgrades on the current cast. Send Barnes down and see what Light brings you. See if Elias can help get lefties out better than Layne has been able to, or don’t, just bring up Martin instead. There are, believe it or not, options. And options are good, especially if they represent hope and if they don’t cost the team top prospects like Rafael Devers or Anderson Espinoza. If Andrew Miller is available at reasonable cost, consider making the move, but short of that, there are enough problems elsewhere on this roster that it makes sense to use the team’s resources on a position with fewer internal solutions, which, at least for now, rules out the bullpen.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com