Top Play (WPA): Given the final score, this one is pretty obvious. In the top of the second inning, Mark Trumbo hit a missile over the Green Monster to give the Orioles all the runs they would need (WPA: + .102). Considering the strong wind that was blowing in from left field this home run was quite a feat. The “Trumbomb” was the lone blemish on an otherwise sparkling performance by Rick Porcello.

Bottom Play (WPA): The Red Sox offense struggled to get many scoring chances going off of Orioles’ starter Kevin Gausman and the excellent defense behind him. The seventh inning was when the Sox had their best chance to score. After Mookie Betts popped out to the catcher, Hanley Ramirez hustled down the first base line to earn an infield hit. Travis Shaw was unable to get on-base or move Hanley over, as he struck out swinging. With two outs, Chris Young then blooped a single to centerfield that allowed Hanley to scamper into third base. Other than Trumbo rounding the bag on his home run, Hanley was the only runner to advance to second base and beyond. This really was a pitcher’s duel. Fun game notes aside, the Sox had first-and-third with two outs and noted offensive machine, Sandy Leon, coming to the plate. Unfortunately, Leon struck out on three pitches (WPA: -.110) to end the threat.

Key Moment: It is difficult to select a standout key moment from last night’s game. Generally, the Orioles’ infield defense was great. A number of times they made plays that prevented the Red Sox from getting base runners on early in innings. In the end I will select a Red Sox defensive play as the key moment, as it ensured the game remained 1-0 heading into the bottom of the ninth, where Big Papi loomed. With one out and Manny Machado on first base, Chris Davis flew out to deep right field. Machado tagged up and headed for second but was gunned down by Mookie Betts on a tremendous throw; another display of Betts’ ability as a defender. The doubling up of Machado was Mookie’s 13^th outfield assist, second-most by right fielders this season. Last night, it ended the Orioles’ chances in the ninth and kept the Red Sox one swing away from tying the game.

Trend to Watch: Have you heard that the Red Sox struggle in one-run and low scoring games? Well they do and last night was another 1-run and low scoring loss. I don’t think the Red Sox’s performance in these types of games shows anything about their mettle, character, or whatever adjective you want to pick. But it is weird. The Red Sox are a good team but struggle in low-scoring affairs. After last night’s loss, the Red Sox are now 10-20 in games in which five or fewer total runs are scored. That makes them the second-worst team in baseball in such games. Only the Twins are worse (8-18). The best team? The Orioles (22-10). There are likely to be more of these low-scoring games over the next couple of weeks. The Red Sox will need to be better than they have been – not a big request – in such games if they are going to hold off the Jays and Orioles.

Coming next: The Red Sox continue their home stand and battle with AL East foes, as they welcome the surprisingly-still-in-it New York Yankees to Fenway. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound looking to build off his recent strong outings. In 2016, the Yankees have been bad against left-handed pitching (86 wRC+, seventh worst in baseball) so Rodriguez has a solid chance to string up some zeroes. Opposing Rodriguez on the mound will be Yankee ace, Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been great this season (89 DRA-) and his starts against the Red Sox have been no exception. In two outings (12.2 innings) he has held the potent Red Sox offense to just three runs, while striking out almost a batter an inning (12) and only walking one. The bats will need to do more damage than they have in the previous two bouts with Tanaka for a win to be likely.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

This week, however, might be an exception for the Red Sox.

The Sox are coming off a 4-2 homestand rectified by a sweep of the Diamondbacks and clinging to the second Wild Card spot with the Tigers, Mariners and Astros all breathing down their necks. Their rotation has gone from dreadful to mostly competent. The offense has gone from historically elite to pretty good (with the exception of Sunday’s blowout win). Their bullpen, well, see the recap of Wednesday’s game for more on that disaster. The Red Sox haven’t consistently looked like a playoff-caliber team since mid July, but even that success was minimal. One might argue they haven’t played like a contender since May.

That brings us to this week. This is the biggest week of the season thus far; the one we might look back on Oct. 1 and view as the make-or-break point of the summer. The optimist would view this as an opportunity. A good showing and the Sox can solidify their spot in the Wild Card. That means a chance to not only play in the single-elimination postseason round but perhaps host it.

The pessimist would view this as the beginning of the end for the 2016 Red Sox. Combine the Sox’s recent performance with the quality of opponents over an 11-game road trip, and you have a team that could spoil their playoff chances in seven days.

Let’s instead look at this week from a more moderate, realistic viewpoint. It starts with a makeup game in Cleveland against the Indians Monday afternoon, then it’s off to Baltimore, which owns the top Wild Card spot, for a pair of games and then Detroit for a massive four-game showdown against the Tigers. The Red Sox will still have another seven games with the O’s later this season, but this is the final matchup with the Tigers and the club’s last series against a contending team until Sept. 9.

How the playoff picture looks come Sunday may tell us what to expect come October.

The Sox have an ideal matchup against the Indians, who send Josh Tomlin to the mound against Drew Pomeranz. As average as Pomeranz has been since the trade to Boston, Tomlin has been a disaster, allowing seven earned runs in each of his last two outings. The Sox are 3-2 against the Indians this season.

There’s some good news and bad news pertaining the rest of the week. The numbers show the Red Sox have been better than the Tigers and Orioles throughout the season, and both teams have struggled of late. However, the Sox haven’t fared well against either opponent this year.

The Orioles surrendered their AL East lead to the Blue Jays last week and have dropped six of their last 10 contests. Baltimore has sat in first place for most of the season, but with the third-best run differential in the division, some of that may have been dumb luck. In other words, Baltimore hasn’t been as good as its record suggests. Just look at how their numbers compare to the Red Sox, who’ve been treading water for the bulk of two and a half months now.

Baltimore’s success has come behind its power and bullpen. One could argue the Red Sox are just as good, if not better, than the O’s despite what the standings show. However, Baltimore has had the better of the matchups, going 6-4 against the Sox this season. The Orioles also send their No. 1, Chris Tillman, in the series finale to take on the ever-unpredictable David Price. Tillman allowed one run over seven innings in his lone start against the Red Sox on June 14 and has had arguably his strongest season since his All-Star campaign in 2013. Tuesday’s starter, Yovani Gallardo, struggled in his lone start against the Red Sox in April but has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings.

Those two games are important, but the four games in Detroit are even bigger. The Red Sox were swept in their lone meeting against the Tigers two weeks ago, but Detroit was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak that propelled them into the Wild Card race at the time.

Are the Tigers really a playoff team, or an average team in the thick of it thanks to one hot streak? Here’s what the numbers say:

Statistically speaking, there’s little debate that the Red Sox are better than the Tigers, who suffered a five-game losing streak last week, but, as we learned recently against the Yankees, that says little about what to expect in this series. Regardless, this is a big one. A strong showing could separate the Sox from the Tigers, and a poor showing could do the opposite, harming Boston’s postseason chances. Or they could split the series and nothing will really change.

Anyway, here’s what we can expect. Thursday’s series opener ultimately hinges on what the Red Sox can squeeze out of Clay Buchholz for the second straight outing, as he starts in place of the injured Steven Wright. While Buchholz gave Boston enough to nab a win Saturday against the D-backs, it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll perform in Detroit.

The most intriguing matchup of the series comes Friday between Rick Porcello and Michael Fulmer. Porcello has been a legitimate No. 1 for the Sox this season, while Fulmer’s rookie campain has been nothing short of impressive, with the right-hander posting a 3.17 DRA in 2016. Both pitchers use a primarily four-seamer/sinker mix that’s dependent on weak contact rather than blowing hitters away. Perhaps that means a nice, fast-paced game as well.

From there it’s Pomeranz and Daniel Norris, who has made just four starts this season, in a battle of mediocre pitchers. Then there’s the finale between Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Verlander. Rodriguez allowed one run over seven innings against the Yankees last week, looking more like the pitcher Sox fans fell in love with last season. Meanwhile, Verlander has been in vintage form of late with a 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts.

Ultimately, this week won’t determine where the Red Sox wind up at the end of the season, but it should give us a good idea of what to expect the rest of the way. They’re capable of success against both teams, but past matchups and recent performance tells us that may not happen. But this is the story of the 2016 Red Sox, who have ridden a roller coaster of promise and disappointment again and again.

If we’re being realistic, there’s nothing wrong with settling for a .500 week, or 4-3 if you want to include the Indians game. That should keep the Red Sox in a playoff spot, or at least within a game of it, before a stretch that includes two series against the Rays and one against both the A’s and Padres. But those games won’t tell us about this team quite like this week’s. This is a stretch where the Red Sox could prove themselves worthy of our trust, and worthy of true playoff consideration once we reach the middle of September.

Photo by Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports Images

The good times were short-lived. The Red Sox fell out of first after splitting the series with the Twins. They then got swept by the Tigers and went 5-6 on their 11-game west coast trip. Wednesday’s loss to the Mariners, exactly two weeks after reclaiming the division lead, left them out of a playoff spot for the first time since April 25.

Now the Red Sox are in the midst of a Wild Card race that’s set to come down to the finish. The Blue Jays and Orioles are tight in the race for the East, while the Tigers and Indians could go back and forth in the Central over the next two months. Meanwhile, there are the Red Sox, who sit a half game behind the Tigers for the second Wild Card spot. The Mariners (3.5 games) and Astros (four games) aren’t too far behind either.

The Red Sox are in a wild chase (no pun intended) for their first postseason berth since 2013. But just how well do they stack up with the teams they’re competing with over the final eight weeks of the season? Let’s look at the good, bad and what lies ahead for some of those teams (sorry, Houston and Seattle).

Red Sox (60-50)

The good: This is obvious for those of us who have followed the team all season. The offense is among the best in the majors, scoring the most runs in baseball and owning the sixth-best TAv (second in the AL). The bulk of their lineup sits in the positive BWARP category, while Mookie Betts (5.0 BWARP) is in the AL MVP discussion. Although the Red Sox’s pitching has been its downfall (more on that below), Rick Porcello (3.33 DRA, 3.74 FIP) continues to be a steady force while David Price finally looks like the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting when they signed him in the offseason. Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel’s return gives Boston the late-game stability it was lacking early on in this rut.

The bad: The Red Sox still haven’t gotten the consistent pitching they need in order to make a legitimate postseason run. They rank 15th in DRA, 12th in cFIP and 16th in ERA. Price’s resurgence has improved that ranking while Eduardo Rodriguez has been better recently, but Steven Wright has proven unpredictable of late and Drew Pomeranz’s Red Sox tenure has been underwhelming at best. Meanwhile, the bullpen has handed the Red Sox frustrating losses in the past two and a half weeks, as the likes of Brad Ziegler — who, in all fairness, has been good overall — Fernando Abad and Robbie Ross can attest to. That probably contributes to their 13-14 record in one-run games. And just how long can the Bryce Brentz/Andrew Benintendi combination work in left field?

What lies ahead: It doesn’t get any easier. The Red Sox have another 11-game road trip after this week’s short homestand. That’s part of a string of 29 of the Sox’s final 52 games coming away from Fenway. Fifteen of those final 52 games come against the Orioles and Blue Jays. That’s good and bad. The good news is that means ample opportunity to gain ground in the playoff race. But that also means some tough tests to close out the season.

Orioles (63-47, lead AL East)

The good: Offensively, the O’s are just as dangerous as the Red Sox. They lead the majors in home runs (163), with four players at the 20-homer mark, and are third in ISO (.184). They have baseball’s home run leader in Mark Trumbo and a possible MVP candidate in Manny Machado (4.45 BWARP). Although win-loss records mean next to nothing for pitchers, the O’s have consistently won with their ace, Chris Tillman, on the mound, which the Sox have yet to prove they can do. They also have the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball thanks to the likes of Zach Britton (1.85 FIP) and Brad Brach (2.46).

The bad: Baltimore actually has a worse starter’s ERA than the Red Sox at 4.91. That’s because the O’s lack depth behind Tillman. Kevin Gausman has a decent 3.79 DRA and 4.35 FIP, but the dropoff from there is significant. It’s bad enough to the point that the O’s traded for Wade Miley at the deadline. Key positional players Hyun-Soo Kim and Matt Wieters have also battled injuries. As Matt Kory pointed out last week, Baltimore’s run differential (+30) is more than half of both the Red Sox and Blue Jays. In theory, if those margins more accurately reflect themselves in the standings, that could mean trouble for the O’s going forward.

What lies ahead: The Orioles have been as streaky as any team in the majors as of late, and how that manifests itself over the final eight weeks could drastically change the postseason picture. Their remaining schedule and more evenly split between home and road, although there are a pair of long road trips mixed in there, and plenty of matchups with the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

Blue Jays (63-49)

The good: Toronto has the fourth-best run differential in the majors and the second-best in the American League to the Red Sox. That’s a testament to having two of the best power hitters in the game in Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion and arguably the best starting rotation in the AL East. Donaldson and Encarnacion’s combined 57 homers place the Blue Jays second in the majors in both home runs (159) and ISO (.185). They also have the best starter’s ERA in the American League. Aaron Sanchez has had a breakout year with a 2.85 ERA, 3.37 DRA and 3.28 FIP, while Marco Estrada (3.78 FIP) and J.A. Happ (3.80) are having their best seasons in years.

The bad: The fact that Toronto has succeeded this much with two of their stars underperforming is impressive. However, the Blue Jays could use more from Jose Bautista and Marcus Stroman. Bautista’s .271 TAv is his lowest mark since 2009, while his 15 homers thus far is underwhelming. Stroman (3.86 DRA) is just as good for a seven-run clunker as he is for a quality start. Roberto Osuna (2.28 FIP) and Joseph Biagini (2.27) have been strong out of the bullpen, but the drop-off from there is significant as Toronto owns the 19th-ranked bullpen ERA in the majors. The Blue Jays are 13-19 in one-run games.

What lies ahead: Aside from a seven-game west coast swing against the Angels and Mariners, the Blue Jays have by far the friendliest schedule in the division to close out the season. They split the rest of their slate evenly between home and away, have a series with the Twins at the end of the month and have a combined six series between the Rays and Yankees. The addition of Francisco Liriano gives Toronto a six-man rotation going forward. Whether or not that proves effective is to be determined.

Tigers (61-50)

The good: The Tigers are arguably the hottest team on the list. Their eight-game win streak, which included a sweep of the Red Sox, propelled them into the final Wild Card spot before losing it the next night. But they still won nine of their last 10 entering Sunday. Detroit is led by a dangerous lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera (3.18 TAv), Ian Kinsler (.298), Victor Martinez (.293) and J.D. Martinez (3.16), while the rotation has been carried by the resurgence of Justin Verlander, who owns a 2.86 DRA for the season and a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts, and the emergence of rookie Michael Fulmer, who has allowed three or more runs in just two of his starts since May 15.

The bad: The rest of the pitching staff has been less than stellar. Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez have been negative PWARP players, while Jordan Zimmerman has struggled to stay healthy. Detroit also has the worst bullpen ERA (4.15) of any team mentioned in this piece, as it’s been forced to rely on Justin Wilson (2.82 DRA), Alex Wilson (4.41) and closer Francisco Rodriguez (3.01) late in games. The Tigers’ +24 run differential is also the worst of any team on this list, which suggests that their current pace will be difficult to keep up.

What lies ahead: If Detroit is to remain hot and in the thick of the postseason race, it is going to need to overcome a two-week stretch that includes a west coast trip and a series against the Red Sox at home. Being in the AL Central has its perks, however. The Tigers have 10 more games against the Twins, nine more games against the stumbling Royals and a season-ending series against the Braves. That should be enough to make them favorites for a playoff spot.

Indians (62-47, lead AL Central)

The good: The Indians have by far the best pitching of any team in the race. They may just have the best pitching in the American League. Cleveland is second in the majors in DRA, second in cFIP and eighth in ERA. They have a trio of studs in their rotation in Corey Kluber (2.64 DRA), Danny Salazar (2.73) and Carlos Carrasco (2.76), while right-hander Josh Tomlin (11-4) is tied for the best win percentage of any starting pitcher on the team. The bullpen has been solid as well, with Cody Allen and Dan Otero bold holding ERAs under 3.00 and the addition of Andrew Miller giving the Indians a legitimate closer. Cleveland also has legitimate power with the seventh best ISO in baseball and the ninth most home runs. Francisco Lindor, meanwhile, has given Xander Bogaerts a run for his money as the best hitting shortstop in the American League.

The bad: As impressive as the likes of Lindor and Jason Kipnis have been at the plate, the Indians’ offensive production has been top heavy, leaving Cleveland 12th in the majors in TAv (.269). The Indians in general haven’t been very good lately. They lost three of four to Minnesota last week and were swept by the Orioles not long before that. Salazar (8.84 ERA in his last four starts) and Carrasco (10.24 ERA in his last two starts entering Sunday) have recently had some of their worst performances of the season.

What lies ahead: Cleveland doesn’t quite have the cupcake schedule the Tigers have the rest of the way. Despite the Indians being the better team, the strength of schedule could be enough to put Detroit atop the division and Cleveland fighting for a Wild Card spot before long. The Indians have eight series remaining against teams still in the playoff race, and that doesn’t include the makeup game against the Red Sox next week. Those matchups could make or break their chances at holding the AL Central lead.

***

The Wild Card race will seemingly come down to starting pitching. All contending teams can hit – at least in the American League – but what separates teams like the Blue Jays and Indians is they also have good pitching. That alone should make them the favorites in their respective divisions going forward. The Tigers may be the least talented of the listed teams fighting for the Wild Card, but they also have by far the softest schedule remaining.

That makes the Red Sox and Orioles – at least in my opinion – most likely to be the odd team out come October. The Sox have shown their offense can only carry them so far, but the recent play of Price, Porcello and Rodriguez provide hope that things can still turn around from a pitching standpoint. You can look at Baltimore’s run differential one of two ways. Either that it’s bound to catch up with it at the end of the season, or it’s a testament to the Orioles’ elite bullpen.

Regardless, the Red Sox are in the thick of a Wild Card race against teams with similar characteristics as them that is destined to come down to the final week of the season. Their strengths stand out above the rest, but so do their flaws. How they manage those flaws (and that juggernaut of a schedule) will determine where they are come October.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): In the bottom of the second inning the Red Sox got on the board. After David Ortiz grounded out, Hanley Ramirez worked a walk and was moved to third on a Chris Young single to center field. Travis Shaw came to the plate with two outs and runners at first and third. The way Shaw, and the bottom of the lineup in general, has been hitting it had the makings of a wasted opportunity. But Shaw came through, driving a double to left field, scoring Ramirez and moving Young to third (WPA: + .111). Unfortunately, Christian Vazquez could not add on, as he struck out to end the inning in what was the second worst play of the night (WPA: -.052).

Bottom Play (WPA): In the top of the third inning Steven Wright grazed the leadoff batter, Joey Rickard, with a pitch. Ryan Flaherty then grounded weakly to second on a ball that Dustin Pedroia made a nice play on, but the ball was not hit hard enough to spin the double play. The next batter, Adam Jones, hit a dribbler between Wright and Christian Vazquez for a hit. As if enough weak contact had not been made, Hyun Soo Kim grounded to Pedroia for another fielder’s choice at second base, as the ball was again not hit hard enough for the Red Sox’s infielders to turn two. All this weak contact brought Orioles’ superstar Manny Machado to the plate for a moment that seemed destined to bite the Red Sox for their unfortunate inability to get out of the inning. Instead Machado popped out to Hanley Ramirez in foul territory, ending the threat (WPA: -.057).

Key Moment: In the bottom of the third inning the first six Red Sox batters reached base. The sixth was Hanley Ramirez turning Kevin Gausman’s first slider of the night into an absolute bomb:

Leading to this moment in the dugout afterwards:

The home run put the Red Sox ahead 6-0 at the time and turned out to be the winning hit.

Trend to Watch: Travis Shaw and Hanley Ramirez getting things back on track. It is no secret that Shaw and Ramirez have been scuffling lately. However, over the past couple of nights both players have showed signs of getting their offensive production going again. Last night, as noted, Shaw had the big opposite-field RBI double in the second inning, but he also worked a walk in a strong plate appearance in the third. But then he swung at the first pitch in his next two trips to the plate, grounding out weakly to second base both times. Seems like more work is needed. Meanwhile, Hanley worked a walk in his first plate appearance, hit the dinger shown above in his second, and roped a single up the middle in his fourth. He had a great night at the plate and, all posing aside, is reportedly confident that he is on the right track and ready to explode offensively:

Hanley Ramirez to @bradfo yesterday: “It’s going to be dangerous. It’s going to be homers, triples, and more homers. It’s going to get ugly”

— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) June 16, 2016

Hopefully he is right. Having Hanley and Shaw knocking the ball all over the yard again will keep this lineup producing and covering for the mediocre pitching staff.

Coming next: The Red Sox will finish up their series with the Orioles tomorrow night at Fenway. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound looking to get his season rolling in a positive direction. The 6.06 ERA (7.54 FIP) is not even close to the expectations many have for Eduardo. Some good news rests in the fact that his lone decent outing this year was against the very Orioles he will take on tomorrow. The Orioles will counter with Tyler Wilson, who has moved from the bullpen into the rotation, although he had much more success when he was used as a reliever. He started against the Red Sox at the end of May and fared well, allowing three runs over 6.2 innings. In their second time seeing Wilson, the Red Sox’s league-leading offense should be able to do more damage. With a win tomorrow they can win this series and get themselves back to .500 against American League East opponents.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Coming off a series win against the juggernaut Blue Jays on the weekend, the Red Sox faltered a bit this week against the Rays. The good news is that Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are still looking like top-level players late in the season, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is still getting an opportunity to work through his most recent spat of offensive ineptitude. The bullpen is a high-wire act every night, but I suspect most of the guys in the current ‘pen won’t be part of next year’s crew, although a few of them could be. The games don’t matter for this year, but they do in a future development sense. The Sox winning has pushed them up to being the 11^th worst team in the game, which moves them out of a protected pick spot in next year’s draft and affects the money they are allocated for the draft and for signing international players. While the surge for third place in the division is fun, it is probably better that the boys lose a little more often so that the organization has a better chance at acquiring impact talent for the future. This sort of thing affects a large market team like the Red Sox differently than a small market team like the Rays, but it is still worth considering.

Baltimore Orioles – Record (76 – 76) – Projected Record (82 – 82)

The Orioles currently sit third in the American League East, which is right around where preseason projections had them. Their offense has hit for power but been hampered by on-base issues, making them below average as a unit (96 wCR+ … more on that below). On the pitching and defense side of things they have been middle of the pack, and, like the offense, around league average (98 ERA-, 99 FIP-). Being around average on offense and average on defense is not necessarily a bad thing, but it won’t lead to a great record. The Orioles have been a middling team for most of the season and, like the Red Sox, they are in look-to-next-year mode. With several key parts of their team heading to free agency this offseason (e.g., Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O’Day, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce), what they do this winter will have important implications for whether the run of success they’ve experienced over the last four seasons will continue.

Probables:

Game 1: Rich Hill vs. Kevin Gausman, Friday, 7:10pm EDT

The 35-year old New Englander, Rich Hill, will make his first home start this weekend after carving up the Blue Jays and Rays on the road. Hill has been a wonderful surprise this September. In his two outings he has only allowed three runs and eight hits in 14.0 total innings pitched. Oh, and he has a ridiculous 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The extent to which Hill’s performance is sustainable going forward is not clear, but he represents an interesting option to consider for the 2016 team. Ryan Morrison wrote an excellent article looking at Hill’s loopy, high-spin curveball and how effective it can be when paired with a well-located fastball. The Orioles’ offense pairs the ugly combination of striking out a lot (22.4% strikeout rate is third highest in the game), with not walking a lot (6.8% walk rate is sixth lowest in the game) so Hill has a good opportunity to maintain his already impressive K/BB ratio.

The development of the much heralded Gausman has been bumpy. He was rushed to the big leagues last season, then spent April and the start of May as a reliever before being sent down to Triple-A to get stretched out into a starter. He returned to the Orioles in late June and has been used as a starter ever since. Over 15 starts the results have not been all that great. He has a 4.43 RA9, 4.30 FIP and 4.55 DRA. He throws a four-seam fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a forkball/split-change and a slider. The slider will be critical to his development as a starter but so far its lacking in effectiveness. He pitched against the Red Sox ten days ago, holding them scoreless over six innings, but struggled with control and walked four batters. He struck out seven, but four walks is too many.

Game 2: Bullpen Day vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Saturday, 4:05pm EDT

A stream of relievers will take the hill on Saturday. Who will start the game is not known, but it will reportedly be the reliever that is most rested. The bullpen day is an interesting concept, and something that the Tampa Bay Rays have been doing throughout the season. The Red Sox are likely implementing it because Steven Wright is still on the disabled list with a concussion and they want to limit the innings of Eduardo Rodriguez. In any case, going with a bullpen day makes things a little more difficult for the opposition, as they cannot stack things in a way to consistently gain a platoon advantage, and will not get the full benefit of the times through the order penalty. I expect the starter, whoever it may be, to go two or three innings, facing 15-20 batters before handing things off to the next guy in the chain.

Chen is one of those pitchers who does a decent job each season without much fanfare. Over his four seasons in the majors he has always thrown at least 130 innings, and been worth at least one win above a replacement player. Having someone in the rotation who can do that year-in and year-out is quite nice. This season has been his best if you go by ERA (3.36), but his peripheral numbers (4.24 FIP, 4.35 DRA) suggest that he has had some good fortune along the way to keep that ERA down. This weekend will be Chen’s fourth outing against the Red Sox this season. In his previous three, he mixed one really good start around a mediocre one and a pretty bad one. Hopefully the Sox can add another negative outing to Chen’s ledger.

Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Sunday, 1:35pm EDT

Last time out, Owens continued his tendency to follow great starts with rough ones, as he allowed five runs in 7.1 innings against the Rays. He got 21 swings and misses, but ultimately allowed too many runs. That start came after an outing in which he held the Orioles he will face this weekend scoreless over 7.2 innings, getting 14 swings and misses. The whiff totals are a positive sign that his stuff will work at the major league level, and these ups and downs are to be expected from a young starter, but he needs to start piling up positive outings if he is going to be a part of the 2016 rotation. Sunday’s start will be Owens’ sixth start at Fenway, and unfortunately the previous five have not been great. At home he has a 6.99 RA9 (6.04 FIP), while on the road he has posted a 2.38 RA9 (2.83 FIP). This pronounced split is largely a result of all seven home runs he has allowed having come in Fenway. Ideally, Owens can build on his successful outing against the Orioles that came earlier this month in Camden Yards, and improve his standing while pitching at home in the process.

Ubaldo Jimenez has followed up an excellent first half (3.08 RA9, 3.27 FIP in 99.1 innings pitched) with a real clunker second half (6.28 RA9, 5.14 FIP in 71.2 innings). In the first half Jimenez had a 98:32 K:BB, and only allowed eight home runs. In the second half he has walked the same number of batters, struck out 41 fewer, and allowed 11 home runs. Ah, the sweet, sweetness of regression toward a mean. Jimenez is essentially a league-average pitcher who walks too many batters. He has not fared well in his three outings against the Red Sox this season, having yet to get into the sixth inning in any start.

Opposing Lineup:

The Baltimore offense has been underwhelming as a group. They have scored 4.4 runs per game, which is average for the American League but ahead of only the Tampa Bay Rays in the East division. Their .255 TAv ranks 23^rd in the game, which is simply not enough in the AL. With that said, they still have some boppers in the lineup. Manny Machado has a deserved reputation as a defensive whiz at third base, but he is also a consistent contributor at the plate: 132 wRC+, 29 home runs, 9.7% walk rate. Along with Machado, free agent-to-be Chris Davis has been mashing all year (43 home runs, 27 doubles), likely earning himself a nice contract this offseason, and team-leader Adam Jones has continued his free-swinging ways (61.2 Swing% is 2^nd highest in the game, min. 200 plate appearances) and produced at an above average level (110 wRC+). The problem with the Orioles offense is that after those three, only one other player (Jonathan Schoop, 114 wRC+) has accumulated at least 200 plate appearances and posted a wRC+ better than average. While the Orioles can slug the ball (.421 SLG is 5^th best in the game), their on-base issues (.307 is 26^th) – only two players have an OBP over .320 (min. 200 PA) – have really limited them from piling up the runs scored totals.

With rosters expanding and the season winding into the last 10 or so games, the lineup that I have given could look quite different, as Buck Showalter may want to let some of his regulars have time off. We will likely see Jimmy Paredes (.256 TAv) get a game in the outfield, Nolan Reimold (.256) take the designated hitter spot one day, and Caleb Joseph (.251) do the catching, sparing the oft-injured Weiters.

Recap

The Red Sox have been playing really well since the trade deadline, and the Orioles are sluggishly making their way to the finish line. The Orioles have dominated the season series to date, taking 11 of the first 16 match-ups. The head-to-head results is one aspect of this weekend’s series to watch, but of larger significance (maybe?) is that it will play an important role in determining who finishes in the basement of the division.

Photo by Jeff Griffith/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): The Red Sox’s offense was really clicking last night. In the top of the third inning they scored three times to take a 4-0 lead. Two of the three runs came on a two-out, two-run home run to deep left field by Dustin Pedroia (WPA: .152). The home run was Pedroia’s second since returning from the disabled list, and his first of two on the night. He smacked a two-out, three-run bomb to deep left in the top of the fourth inning that put the game out of reach. While you are here, why not watch the laser show:

Two-run shot in the third inning:

Three-run shot in the fourth inning:

Bottom Play (WPA): After the Red Sox put a three-spot on the board in the top of the third inning, the Orioles started off well in the bottom half of the inning. Gerardo Parra led off and roped a single up the middle, the first real hard contact off Henry Owens. But then J.J. Hardy promptly grounded into a 4-6-3 double play (WPA: – .058). The double play included a really nice turn around the second base bag by Deven Marrero, who made his first major league start at shortstop, which is his natural position.

Key Moment: It is not really a single moment, but getting 7.2 innings from Henry Owens was pretty great. It was especially nice that his solid outing came the night after the previous starter, Joe Kelly, did not get out of the third inning due to injury, and then the game went to extra innings, forces that combined to have Torey Lovullo use nine pitchers on the night. Owens did not just eat up innings; he also pitched really well. He had all four of his pitches working, getting swings and misses on one quarter of the changeups and sliders he threw (11/43). Owens allowed no runs on six hits, struck out four, and, critically, walked nobody. All told, it was a promising start against a pretty decent lineup.

Trend to Watch: If the Red Sox keep winning, things will get more interesting in terms of the draft and signing any player that receives a qualifying offer (QO) (e.g., David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmerman). The Red Sox’s better play of late has moved them up to being the 10^th worst team in baseball (yay!). If this holds they will get the 10^th overall pick in next summer’s first year player draft. This is interesting because a top-10 pick is a good thing, and players taken in the top 10 tend to have more successful careers. But it is also interesting because the 10^th pick is the last pick that is protected, meaning they would not have to relinquish it if they were to sign a free agent that received a QO. So the ideal situation is that the Red Sox play interesting ball over the remaining 17 games, but don’t play well enough to advance their league standing above 10^th worst. This way we get to see decent baseball for the rest of the month, the team gets a top-10 player in the draft, and they can sign a top-level pitcher to fortify next years rotation without worrying about losing said draft pick. That is a beautiful scenario.

Coming next: The Red Sox have an off day tomorrow and then head to Toronto for a weekend series with the division-leading Blue Jays. The Red Sox will send Rick Porcello to the mound on Friday night, who has been great lately, but the ridiculous Blue Jays’ offense, which is even more ridiculous in the Rogers Centre, will present a tough test. Hopefully he can keep up his streak of solid outings. The Jays will counter with Marcus Stroman. Stroman will be making only his second major league start this season, a result of tearing his ACL during Spring Training. Stroman was for the most part sharp in his first outing last weekend against the Yankees in New York. The Red Sox offense should look to take advantage of a pitcher who is still getting acclimated to pitching regularly. The surge to finish in third continues!

Photo by Evan Habeeb/USA Today Sports Images