Not every prospect pans out. For every Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, there are as many, if not more, Lars Andersons and Will Middlebrooks. Sometimes it’s talent related, and other times it’s injury related. None of this should be ground-breaking analysis. It’s very possible (and becoming more likely) that Swihart becomes the next prospect that just couldn’t stay healthy. The idea of a prospect not reaching his ceiling because of injury, while still frustrating, is an understandable aspect of the game. Catcher is an especially grueling position; there’s a reason why so few catchers, even at the major league level, finish their careers there. Try spending three hours a night in a crouched position, 162 nights a year, for five to ten years. It sounds awful.

Catcher is an especially grueling position; there’s a reason why so few catchers, even at the major league level, finish their careers there.

The problem hasn’t only been injuries, though. Half the battle has been the team’s a borderline-indefensible approach to managing Swihart. The organization has insisted on treating Swihart like a prospect who would grow out of the catcher position as he progressed through the minors. If you look at just his major-league numbers, you’d agree. In terms of Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), Baseball Prospectus’ catch-all defensive metric, Swihart was not good with the Sox. In 2015, he spent 668 innings behind the plate, starting 78 games. During that span, Swihart posted a -8.7 FRAA, which you don’t need an in-depth explainer to tell you is not good.

It was after that stretch of games that the organization seemed to decide that Swihart wasn’t the answer. There were other positions where his bat could play, they thought, and in two years Christian Vasquez was going to be the best defensive catcher in baseball anyway. Swihart got exactly 52 innings to work with as the starting catcher in 2016 before the Sox made a change, sending him down to Triple-A. Through those 52 innings, Swihart hit .278/.391/.278, which is discouraging only from a power-hitting perspective. It seemed like a rash decision; for someone who flashed power all throughout the minors, it’s not inconceivable that adjusting to major league pitching might’ve taken a while (coughjackiebradleyjrcough). At least more than 52 innings. It’s not like the production from their other catchers has been noticeably better since then:

Ryan Hanigan

2015 (54 games): .247/.337/.328
2016 (35 games): .171/.230/.238

Sandy Leon

2015 (41 games): .184/.283/.202
2016 (78 games): .310/.369/.476 (a career year, whatever)
2017 (52 games): .241/.293/.371

Christian Vazquez

2016 (57 games): .227/.277/.308
2017 (54 games): .266/.303/.350

Outside of Leon’s career year – which was actually more of a career first half – are any of those worth giving up on Swihart for?

What’s worse than the quick hook was what came next. Deciding that Swihart had apparently played his last game behind the plate, the Sox tried to fast track him back to the majors through left field. Swihart, a great athlete by all regards, gave it the ol’ college try. Then this happened:

Since then, Swihart’s been either hurt, or healthy-ish but not playing catcher. All the while, the Red Sox have trotted out the likes of Ryan Hanigan, Sandy Leon, and Christian Vasquez. And sure, Sandy Leon gets hot for a few weeks at a time and everyone loves it. It’s great. I’ve seen more two-homer games from Sandy Leon than I would have ever imagined in my wildest dreams, which is saying something because dreaming about Sandy Leon is pretty wild. And yet, despite Swihart being 1. having the highest ceiling of any catcher on the team and 2. showing signs of being a capable major league hitter, the team has refused to give him another shot.

The latest news regarding Swihart came a few days ago, when Farrell told media members that they were going to start giving him some innings at both corner infield spots. His ankle has had some setbacks in the healing process that hasn’t allowed him to catch, they said. Maybe that’s true – if so, I have like 72.5 million shares of Rusney Castillo stock that I think you’d be interested in. Playing Swihart in left, and then at first, and then soon at third ensure that the Red Sox have bungled away two things: a young prospect with a ceiling that would make you drool, and one of their farm’s more valuable trade chips. There was a time when Swihart was the centerpiece of every hypothetical blockbuster on the internet. Who wouldn’t want a young catcher with above-average hit skills, speed, and projectable defense? If the Red Sox were going to roll with Christian Vasquez, the least they could do was realize when to sell high. They did neither, and now we’re stuck wincing through Boston Globe longreads about the challenges he’s faced over the last two years. Baseball is dumb sometimes.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

2016, for a multitude of reasons and a wide variety of people, kinda sucked. Sandy Leon was not one of those people. A season that began with the coronation of Blake Swihart as an everyday catcher eventually saw the position fall into the hands of Leon as a result of injuries and institutional mismanagement. And while the year included Cy Young hardware dealt to Rick Porcello, there’s a case to be made that it was in fact Sandy Leon who was the most shockingly good member of the 2016 Red Sox.

Sandy’s 2016 was weird and honestly still doesn’t quite make sense, so let’s take a peek back at his role this past season and going forward.

What went right in 2016

Most things. Most things went right. Coming into the season, Leon had played a total of 75 Major League games in his career between 2012 and 2015. Those games had been, uh, uninspiring. Leon had one career dinger and – brace yourself for his slash line, please, you’ll thank me – a .187 career batting average. He had a .258 on-base and .225 slugging percentage. Safe to say expectations weren’t particularly high for the catcher as he entered his age-27 season.

But when Ryan Hanigan went down with an injury in early June, Leon got called up to the big league club. Christian Vazquez couldn’t hit his weight, and Blake Swihart, well, yeesh. All of that is to say that Sandy Leon got himself an opportunity, and he did not throw away his shot. (Yeah, I just quoted Hamilton, don’t @ me.)

In 78 games (again, more than in his entire career to this point) Sandy earned a .310/.369/.476 slash line, knocked seven homers and drove in 38 runs. Sprinkle in some stellar defense behind the plate and Leon was good for 2.5 fWAR.

The dude hit .390 in his first 40 games this year, with a slugging percentage over .600 and a 1.075 OPS. One way to describe Sandy Leon’s 2016 is Good. It was Good.

What went wrong in 2016

Not that much. Leon exceeded all possible expectations en route to a career year that, frankly, he is unlikely to repeat.

The catcher did turn into something of a pumpkin down the stretch, seemingly remembering that he is Sandy Leon and not Johnny Bench. In the month of September, he hit .213/.286/.253 in his final 23 games. The Sox went 16-7 in those games, though, so it didn’t quite matter. Leon’s offensive production was fun and impressive, but it was never pivotal; getting offense out of the catcher’s spot was a luxury, so even when Leon came back down to earth, it was hard to blame him.

What to expect in 2017

Oh, boy. Is it bad if the answer to this part is “I have no idea please leave me alone so I don’t have to make bad predictions?” The catcher’s spot in the Red Sox 2017 lineup seems like it’ll be filled by whomever Dave Dombrowski and John Farrell like in February and March. From all indications and reports surrounding the Chris Sale trade, Dombrowski had no interest in moving on from Swihart, or at least in selling low on him as he recovers from a tough injury.

A year removed from being surrounded by High-End Prospect Hype, it seems the best-case scenario for the Sox is for Swihart to start. Ideally, he’d play a sustainable defensive catcher while holding on to the high-end offensive skills that drew him such rave reviews climbing the farm system. But after being moved from behind the plate and tossed haphazardly into Fenway’s treacherous left field, who knows where Swihart is at? And, much as I love the rifle attached Christian Vazquez’s right shoulder, I have no confidence in his ability to hit at a level anywhere close to tolerable.

And there’s Leon, coming off an all-around great season that he is unlikely to repeat. However, he should be given a chance to try; 2016 wasn’t a fluke until he can’t replicate it. Working against Sandy’s chances is the fact that he posted an almost comical BABIP of .392, second-highest in the majors among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. After the Winter Meetings and the flurry of moves that accompanied them, the 2017 Red Sox roster has come into focus. We have a sense of who will platoon at DH and who will be stationed on the corners. The only position that seems truly blurry is behind the plate, and it’ll be a fun battle to watch come Spring Training.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The story of Leon is well known at this point. I’ve already covered it on this very corner of the worldwide web, as has the similarly named Matt Kory. The unexpectedness of his performance along with just the pure production has been astounding. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who’s hitting .351/.406/.575 with a .330 TAv through Tuesday’s action. Among all players with at least 150 plate appearances, exactly 14 have been better at the plate than Leon.

That’s wild, even if we all acknowledge it’s not a performance that will last. Leon deserves every complementary word that’s been written about him, as his importance on a team that’s had some key hitters struggle lately cannot be overstated. However, his performance on the other side of the ball has been somewhat overlooked, despite being extremely valuable in its own right.

Here at Baseball Prospectus, we are starting to realize just how important a good defensive catcher can be thanks to strong framing skills, among other areas of the game. Just a quick look at the WARP leaderboard backs that notion up. At BP, three of the 20 most valuable players in the game this year are catchers. At FanGraphs, you have to go down to 28th to find the top catcher by fWAR. At Baseball-Reference, you have to go to the 29th spot. Given how many plays the catcher is involved with, the BP way of thinking makes sense — and makes Leon’s performance this year that much more noteworthy.

Now, framing numbers get all the publicity in regards to catcher defense, and for good reason. A catcher can impact the game with his framing on nearly every pitch, and having a strong framer can drastically change games on a regular basis. The numbers for Leon in this area are surprisingly lackluster this year, at least at the major-league level. He’s currently cost the team four runs in framing this season, which puts him firmly below average.

However, he was a plus-framer in Triple-A this year and has been for much of his career prior to 2016. It’s entirely possible that he’s been at least a little better than the numbers have given him credit for, especially when you take into account that he’s had to catch Steven Wright’s knuckleball on a semi-regular basis.

Beyond the framing aspect, Leon has been a strong defensive catcher. As a minor leaguer, he always had a strong reputation behind the plate, and it’s largely due to his ability to keep pitches in front of him and his ability to control the running game. As a blocker, he’s simply been average. Nonetheless, once again you need to consider the Steven Wright factor, which will hurt any catcher’s numbers. That’s particularly true this year when Wright’s knuckleball has been out of this world for much of the season.

Using the eye test (which, ya know), Leon’s looked strong in this area. On top of that, he’s been fantastic with his arm. BP has him well above-average, and he again passes the eye test. He even picked off a runner at first base on Wednesday in the middle of me typing this. There’s nothing he can’t do.

Even beyond the raw numbers and the individual aspects of his work behind the plate, there are other reasons to appreciate his defense. Leon started playing on a near-everyday basis beginning in late-June, with the bulk of his time coming in the second half. Coincidentally (or not), that correlates really well with a measurable improvement in the team’s pitching staff. In the second half, the Red Sox have the seventh best ERA in all of baseball and have allowed the third lowest OPS.

Leon certainly isn’t the only factor here — Brian Bannister’s increased presence and expected regression come to mind — but it’s hard to completely discount his role in the turnaround. This is especially true when you consider how the pitchers feel about him.

Take Matt Barnes, for example who says in this piece that he “loves throwing to him.” That seems to be a common sentiment not only within the Red Sox staff, but one that’s followed Leon around throughout his professional career.

Leon’s offensive prowess this season gets all the press, and rightfully so. It’s come out of nowhere, and it’s been immensely valuable to a team that is fighting in a tight playoff race. What he does behind the plate should not be overlooked, though. Although the numbers aren’t spectacularly high on Leon, he has the reputation and the adoration from teammates that suggest he’s valuable back there. Plus, the team has pitched much better since he started playing every day. Leon’s offense is going to fall off at some point — in fact, we’ve already seen the start of that process — but his defense will still bring value to the Red Sox.

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images