Boston » Ryan LaMarre http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com Bringing BP-quality analysis to Boston Mon, 11 Mar 2019 11:30:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 The Red Sox Still Need a Better Bench http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/13/a-better-bench-will-be-key-to-the-red-soxs-success/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/13/a-better-bench-will-be-key-to-the-red-soxs-success/#comments Wed, 13 Jul 2016 13:27:18 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5524 If you ask a group of people what the worst unit on the Red Sox has been, the vast majority of the answers will be “starting pitching.” That’s been the glaring weakness on this team for months now, so there’s no question as to why it would be a very common answer. Some might say the bullpen, as even the best pitcher in that group – make no mistake, it’s Craig Kimbrel by several miles – has had his hiccups here and there.

No one would say the hitting’s been a problem, as it’s the one thing keeping the team afloat. But what about the bench players? They’re not a particularly inspiring group, but they’re not main cogs of the run-scoring machine the Red Sox run out there every day. You could definitely fault them as a whole for being pretty terrible, though.

On Opening Day, the Red Sox began the season in Cleveland with a bench that included Ryan Hanigan, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Young, and Rusney Castillo. While benches aren’t exactly supposed to be imposing, this one certainly wasn’t at first. Chris Young is the one good name here, and he’s currently on the disabled list after pulling a hamstring. Sandoval’s shoulder ended up being a lot worse than we thought, and he was done for the year. Rusney Castillo has been so bad in both Triple-A Pawtucket and the big league club that he’s since been removed from the 40-man roster. Hanigan’s a backup, but even he was sidelined by a neck strain, and catching Steven Wright hasn’t helped his defensive metrics in any way.

So, next one(s) up, right? Here comes Christian Vazquez, who clubbed a home run I can only describe as immensely satisfying to watch. The clean sound off the bat, the arc, the – well, everything.

As great as that dinger was, it didn’t take long for Vazquez to revert back to his old ways of simply not hitting. The thing is, you accept that if he could play some of his trademark phenomenal defense, right? He didn’t have that either. After a June that saw Vazquez hit .189/.246/.226, he was sent to Pawtucket, and Sandy Leon was called up.

Then Leon caught fire, and in just 60 PA, he amassed 1.1 WARP. Catchers, man. Apart from Young, Leon might be the best guy here in terms of contributing to the 2016 team.

I’d talk about Blake Swihart with the rest of the backstops, but he was a catcher for all of a month. Swihart was sent back down to Triple-A to learn how to play left field, as Brock Holt had one good week and didn’t really do much after that. Come May, it turned out Holt was also playing through concussion symptoms. So Swihart gets installed as the left-handed platoon partner in LF, and promptly gets injured while playing a position he had all of a few months worth of experience with. Another bench player bites the dust, albeit an out-of-position one.

“But Brett,” you argue, “catcher depth is going to have some very steep fall-off in production after the starter!” And yes, that’s true. The thing is, all the guys who haven’t been backup catchers on the Red Sox’s bench have collectively been just as bad.

Of the infielders, Marco Hernandez has promise, but that’s about all you can say for whomever’s graced the Red Sox bench over the last couple months. Josh Rutledge was doing okay filling in here and there, but knee tendinitis has sidelined him, forcing the Red Sox to rely on Deven Marrero and Mike Miller – yeah, that was my reaction too – to help put a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The outfielders are in the same spot. Chris Young’s pulled hammy opened the door for Bryce Brentz, who has done well early on, but you’re not going to be sold on a guy who has a 25% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. Ryan LaMarre has appeared, and then disappeared, kinda like this pitch:

Yeah. That’s what the Red Sox have been dealing with.

So what’s been the point of me listing off all the failings of guys of which the majority shouldn’t be starting in the first place? Well, it’s because this is starting to become an issue as bad as the starting pitching. It’s just not as evident or instantly noticeable.

The 2016 Red Sox are being propelled on the strength of the hitting of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and David Ortiz, with some help thrown in by the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Travis Shaw. But man, does it ever drop off after that. Hanley Ramirez has been okay, sure, but who do you turn to when he can’t buy a hit and Travis Shaw starts regressing from hitting .350 for two months? You turn to the bench.

This time, there was nothing on the bench to shore up whatever the Red Sox lacked. Combined with a pitching staff that got worse at the worst time, the Red Sox trudged through a 10-16 June, and the left field situation got so bad that people started wondering if Andrew Benintendi could work out in a call-up to the majors from Double-A Portland.

Benches, in a vacuum, aren’t supposed to be good. I get that. The players aren’t starting because they’re not good enough to do so, and we weren’t going to see something like 2013 where guys like Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes annihilated everything they saw. But the Sox, with the resources they have, should’ve done better.

Thankfully, Dave Dombrowski’s taking steps to actually fix all this, trading for Aaron Hill, who was – relative to the Sox bench – smacking the hell out of the ball in Milwaukee. It’s a start. They might just have to wait for guys to come back off the DL for more help.

One can only hope the regulars keep doing what they’re doing, since the Red Sox can’t really afford for them to do much else. That’s the situation they’ve ended up in after the first half, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/13/a-better-bench-will-be-key-to-the-red-soxs-success/feed/ 1 The Exorbitant Cost of Fixing the Red Sox http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/24/the-exorbitant-cost-of-fixing-the-red-sox/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/24/the-exorbitant-cost-of-fixing-the-red-sox/#comments Fri, 24 Jun 2016 14:11:56 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4957

It’s Thursday night and the world, it appears, is on fire. That’s fine for us now though, because this is about baseball. The Boston Red Sox, specifically, which you already knew because you’re smart like that. Look over the flames and you’ll see the trade deadline staring us dead in the eyes. In this next month the biggest, most important of the 2016 baseball trades will be consecrated. This month represents the last chance to make substantial changes to the 2016 Red Sox, a team that has, in the words of many more than just myself, gone all in.

There is a problem, though, and that problem is there might be too many problems. It’s often been said by me to random people happening by on the street that the best kind of baseball team to have, if you can’t have a perfect one, is a team with obvious holes. Plug the holes and you’re far closer to that perfect version than you would be if you had a similarly talented team overall but composed of a few stars and a bunch of average schmoes. That second style of team is much harder to upgrade because anywhere you add, you’re also forced to subtract and the resulting difference is much smaller. The good news is this year’s Red Sox are in the first camp. The bad news is they might be too far in that camp.

As things stand now the team is coasting on a strong start, one that saw the offense hit at a level that hasn’t been sustained by a team in decades. Break it down by month and you can see the way things have leveled off offensively.

April: 5.25 runs per game
May: 6.5
June: 4.9

As the offense has declined the pitching and to a lesser extent the defense has as well.

April: 4.4 runs per game
May: 4.4
June: 4.9

The question facing GM Dave Dombrowski is which Red Sox team is the real one? While we ponder that, let’s look at last night’s Red Sox lineup. Of course it started with Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and David Ortiz, but the last five hitters … well. We have Chris Young batting against a right-handed pitcher. That has worked recently, but it’s not what you’d call ideal, and considering Young’s injury, his participation in any game anytime soon is highly questionable. Then Jackie Bradley who, admittedly, is awesome. Then Hanley Ramirez, who hasn’t really hit since last April. Then Christian Vazquez, who hasn’t ever really hit, last April included, and was pinch-hit for by Sandy Leon. Sandy Leon! Then, at third base, Marco Hernandez. That’s not a 800-run lineup. That might not be a 700-run lineup either.

There isn’t much that can be done about Hanley given his contract and the available back-up options. Hope he hits, hope hope hope. That’s about it. But the team has a huge hole in left field with the injuries to Brock Holt, Blake Swihart and now Chris Young. This is why Ryan LaMarre got two plate appearances in important situations last night and one in an important situation on Wednesday. There’s nothing wrong with Ryan LaMarre, I’m sure he’s a wonderful person, bakes a beautiful soufflé, but he’s not the answer in left field let alone the answer at fourth outfielder. The thing is, even with the Holt, Swihart, and Young healthy, none of them might be the answer either.

The Red Sox are almost stuck in a situation where they have to overpay or underpay.

But okay, fine. Just pour resources into bringing in a good left fielder. How about Carlos Gonzalez? Done. That brings about two problems though. First, any real solution is going to cost the Red Sox maybe more than any other team. That’s because of the young talent they have at the major league level, such as Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley, and because of the stratification in their minor leagues. Right now the Red Sox have four incredibly good prospects in Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, and Anderson Espinoza, and after that, things get dicey. Maybe you can throw Michael Kopech in there too. Either way, making any significant deal is going to cost one of the good players. I understand prospect hugging. Not all young players work out and sometimes their highest and best value to the franchise comes through trade. Maybe none of these guys will be stars. But the question isn’t what will they become, it’s what is their value now, and of the players on the market, it’s difficult to find one that will improve the Red Sox markedly and be worth the cost. The Red Sox are almost stuck in a situation where they have to overpay or underpay. If they can underpay, great, but that’s not the likely scenario.

Alright, they traded Benintendi for Gonzalez. Now comes the other problem, which is all the other positions that need strengthening. The back of the bullpen is showing strain with Koji Uehara’s struggles (his walks are up and his homers are way up and his age is up) and Carson Smith’s season-ending injury. But okay, make a deal for Andrew Miller or Arodys Vizcaino. Problem solved! Great, but what about third base? And catcher? And I haven’t even mentioned the four and five spots in the starting rotation, and that’s if you expect Steven Wright to continue pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball for the rest of the year.

The Red Sox are in a situation where they may have too many problems to fix, too many holes to fill. Dombrowski can start shooting prospects across the country, acquiring a left fielder, a set-up man, a fourth starter, and on and on, but the result will be exceptionally costly in the long run. Next year David Ortiz will retire, and they will need someone to replace his production. That player is likely not yet on this team. Next year Hanley Ramirez, lovable as he may be, will still be bringing his .700 OPS to first base and next year Travis Shaw will still be here and next year and next year and next year. The point is, they’re gonna need these guys, either as long-term answers at important positions, or as trade chips to acquire those answers. More, filling one of 20 holes in a ship won’t stop the ship from sinking, it just forces you to stand there with your finger in the hole while it does.

The Red Sox aren’t in a huge awful hole right now is because Ben Cherington didn’t trade Jackie Bradley, or Mookie Betts, or Xander Bogaerts when he very well could’ve done so.

I don’t mean to paint a bleak picture. It’s not bleak. The Red Sox are a fine team, a decent maybe even good team. They’re in the playoff race. They’re not awful, even if they’ve seemed like it at times recently. They’re not perfect though, or even reasonably close to it, and getting them there in season is going to be shockingly expensive both in terms of the here and now and in terms of the future.

It bears repeating that part of the reason the Red Sox aren’t in a huge awful hole right now is because Ben Cherington didn’t trade Jackie Bradley, or Mookie Betts, or Xander Bogaerts when he very well could’ve done so and with at least as strong a rationalization as Dombrowski has now. Cherington’s reticence to avoid the long term disaster deal for the short term fix may have helped cost him his job, but Dave Dombrowski, for the better of the franchise, needs to follow suit.

The best hope is that a bunch of these things happen: Clay Buchholz remembers how to pitch, Eduardo Rodriguez impersonates a fifth starter, Koji picks it up in the second half and Hanley goes on a run. Then the Red Sox can pick a spot to focus on improving the team and do so with gusto and the knowledge that the difference in quality might be worth the cost. If not enough of those things happen, then Dombrowski and the Red Sox need to pull back on the All In Now reins and spend more time hoping 2016 works out and less time actively assisting it. That might not be what we want to hear, but in a few years we’ll look back at this time. It would be nice not to rue it.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/24/the-exorbitant-cost-of-fixing-the-red-sox/feed/ 0 Game 69 (Nice) Recap: White Sox 3, Red Sox 1 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/game-69-nice-recap-white-sox-3-red-sox-1/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/game-69-nice-recap-white-sox-3-red-sox-1/#comments Tue, 21 Jun 2016 12:00:44 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4841

I want to die.

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) September 2, 2012

Top Play (WPA)

In the 10th inning, Craig Kimbrel was pitching to Jose Abreu . The first time he threw a fastball low and outside, Abreu fouled it off. The second time he tried to do so, he missed, and Abreu made him pay. That go-ahead two-run double was worth a whopping .414 WPA, and all but sealed the victory. The Red Sox, apart from yet another stellar performance from Steven Wright, were making key mistakes all night, and the one to Abreu was the worst of them all. Wasn’t the most frustrating one, as we’ll soon see, but it was the most decisive.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Christian Vazquez giveth, Christian Vazquez taketh away at the worst possible moment. Sure, Alex Avila made a great play on a bad throw, but a fly ball anywhere ends the game and keeps Vazquez from racking up a -.174 WPA on a grounder that barely went 90 feet. He had that clutch hit earlier in the game, and I give him credit for that, but man, does Vazquez look more lost at the plate than ever before. The goal in that moment is to hit it in the air somewhere, and Zach Duke got him to reach for something on the outside corner and generate weak contact.

For what it’s worth, five of the six outs recorded in the 9th inning were in the top six worst plays by WPA. So Vazquez isn’t alone, but he’s not above blame either.

Key Moment

All three of the outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. The Red Sox had to contend with Zach Duke, and John Farrell sent Pedroia up to bat for Travis Shaw. He whiffed on a fastball down the middle. One out.

You’ve already seen what Vazquez did. Two outs, and they were lucky there wasn’t a third on that one.

Then Farrell used Ryan LaMarre (?!?) to pinch-hit for Marco Hernandez. LaMarre whiffed by a country mile on strike two and was straight-up overmatched on strike three. Three outs.

Point fingers at Farrell all you want, but the inability of three right-handed batters to get anything out of the infield against a southpaw reliever is the elephant in the room here. They score, they win, and Kimbrel blowing it doesn’t happen.

Trend to Watch

In April, the Red Sox had a +21 run differential. That’s good! It legitimized their 14-10 record. In May, they had a +59, which is stellar, and they probably should’ve earned a better record than 18-10. June? A relatively puny +3. They are 7-9, and even though that just seems unlucky, remember that the differential might’ve looked a lot different had they not pulled off that 15-4 obliteration of the Twins two weekends ago. The team is in a month-long rut right now. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory won’t help.

Coming Next

The Red Sox have to manage to get past Chris Sale, while Clay Buchholz, the best number-five starter they have, will take the mound for Boston. You know what that means: Buchholz CGSO, Sox win 235-0.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/game-69-nice-recap-white-sox-3-red-sox-1/feed/ 0 Fenway’s Future: Anthony Varvaro, Ben Taylor, Rafael Devers and More http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/16/fenways-future-anthony-varvaro-ben-taylor-rafael-devers-and-more/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/16/fenways-future-anthony-varvaro-ben-taylor-rafael-devers-and-more/#comments Thu, 16 Jun 2016 12:23:23 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4765 In this week’s Fenway’s Future we look at a pitcher and outfielder at Triple-A who could help solve current issues with the big league team, a starting pitcher at Double-A who has regained his run-preventing ways and a multi-inning reliever at High-A Salem who is striking everybody out. Plus, we’ll dive into two players at Low-A Greenville who have impressed in the early going of the season. And, as usual, we have updates on Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Anthony Varvaro (RHP) and Ryan LaMarre (OF)

Anthony Varvaro does not fit the mould of the players we typically review in Fenway’s Future. He is not a prospect, but rather a 31-year old reliever who is working to get another chance in the major leagues. Varvaro pitched effectively for the Braves from 2012 to 2014, and got into nine games with the Red Sox last year before a torn flexor tendon ended his season in May. This season, Varvaro is again pitching effectively. In 27.0 innings for the PawSox he has only allowed eight runs, and has struck out more than one batter per inning. The strikeouts are promising but he also allowed 12 walks and already has four wild pitches, so his control is still a work in progress.

With the questions that loom regarding how the Red Sox’s bullpen will shake out over the next few weeks and Varvaro’s performance at Pawtucket thus far, he could get a call to come back to the big leagues soon. And if that call is going to happen, it needs to come now, as Varvaro had an opt-out in his contract that allowed him to leave the organization yesterday, June 15. Last week, Varvaro told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he did not know what he was going to do about the opt-out, but he noted that he thought the Red Sox bullpen had plenty of options and was not in need an adjustment. However, given his previous major league experience and effectiveness, and current effectiveness in Triple-A, giving him a role in low-leverage innings could work out well. It is a small sample and almost nobody maintains reverse-splits over an extended period, but Varvaro has been tougher on lefties than he has on righties in his career. With this in mind, perhaps Varvaro could replace Tommy Layne. Then again, this might just be making a move for the sake of keeping Varvaro in the organization, while exposing Layne to other teams (he is out of options). Regardless, Varvaro is someone who should be considered to fill any opening that should arise in the Red Sox bullpen.

Left field is another area/position of the Red Sox that is in a state of flux. With injuries to Brock Holt and Blake Swihart, Chris Young has been forced into a starting role; a move that may be the best, as Rusney Castillo is still a mess at the plate (.245/.304/.320). Rather than Castillo, the Red Sox should consider adding PawSox center fielder Ryan LaMarre to their bench. LaMarre, a second round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in the 2010 draft, got a cup of coffee with the Reds last season before signing with the Red Sox as a free agent this past offseason. At Pawtucket he has performed very well. He has a .310/.377/.462 line, with five home runs and nine stolen bases in 13 tries. The stolen base success rate could be better, but otherwise those are solid numbers.

Adding LaMarre to the major league bench provides a versatile outfielder with speed; he is a center fielder but has played left and right field in the minors. The move also affords Castillo yet another chance to get regular plate appearances and work out all of the things that ail him. Castillo is not a major league ready player and it is really unlikely that he will become one by watching games on cushy major league benches. Adding LaMarre to the major league team requires adding him to the 40-man roster, which may be why the Red Sox have opted to shuttle Castillo back-and-forth, but the 40-man issue seems like a minor part of a decision that could help multiple components of the team.

Double-A Portland: Justin Haley (RHP)

At the end of the 2014 season, Justin Haley made six starts (37.2 innings) for the Sea Dogs and pitched well (1.19 RA9, 3.73 FIP). His fielding independent measure shows that he was basically the same guy in 2015 (3.83), but his runs allowed mark jumped significantly to an unimpressive 5.80. Much of the runs allowed difference was a result of a huge drop in strand rate. In 2014 only 4.9 percent of his baserunners eventually scored, while in 2015 that number was 37.3 percent. In 2016, Haley is pitching closer to his 2014 levels, which is good news for the organization. Over his twelve starts (61.1 innings), Haley has a 2.20 RA9 (2.58 FIP) with 59 strikeouts and only 19 walks. His strand rate, while high at 80.2 percent, is not dramatically above his career rate. Presently, he is in the midst of a really strong run. In eight of his last nine starts he has allowed one or fewer runs, the lone holdout a blow-up against Toronto’s affiliate in which he allowed four runs on two hits and four walks, while only recording one out. Ugly stuff. A positive from that outing is that he seems to have quickly put it behind him. His four starts since have all been strong. Coming off of his difficult 2015, in which he pitched well but allowed too many runs, Haley must be feeling better about his progress and ability to compete against quality opponents. If he continues to perform well a promotion to Pawtucket by season’s end could be in the cards.

Quick update on Andrew Benintendi (OF):

When we last checked in on Benintendi he was still adjusting to the Double-A level, having posted a .105/.150/.158 line in his first 20 PA. Since then he has a .268/.312/.394 line over his 77 PA, with a home run, a triple and four doubles. He seems to be adjusting to his new level quite well. Perhaps Benintendi can provide a Bogaertsian-2013 role for the Red Sox down the stretch and in playoff games this year.

High-A Salem: Ben Taylor (RHP)

Taylor, now a force out of the Salem bullpen, started the season as a starter. He made three starts to start the year, two of which went well. However, due to his overpowering fastball that registers in the upper-90s, the team felt he could be most effective in shorter outings as a reliever. The results suggest the team was not wrong. In his 30.0 relief innings, Taylor has only allowed six runs, while striking out 42 batters and only walking six. Seven-to-one is an incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio and one that foretells future success. It should be noted that Taylor’s move to the bullpen has not made him a one-inning-and-done guy. In fact he has yet to have a one inning appearance. He has made 11 appearances, on-average throwing 2.2 innings, and in two cases throwing four or more innings (4.0, 4.1, respectively). In that 4.0 innings outing, 10 of the 12 outs he recorded came via the strikeout. Clearly, he can be dominant. While it is not clear that this is the intention with Taylor (and others), I love the idea of the organization developing effective multi-inning relievers. They could change the way the big league roster is constructed, ideally allowing for a deeper, more versatile bench.

Quick updates on Yoan Moncada (2B) and Rafael Devers (3B):

Moncada’s season line has dropped since our last check-in, but it is still very impressive and strong enough for a promotion to Double-A soon. His season line currently sits at .299/.419/.466, with three home runs, three triples, 22 doubles, and 36 stolen bases in 44 tries.

Devers continues his up-and-down season. He seems to follow a couple of good games with a couple of bad ones. For example, last week he had back-to-back multi hit games, but then went 0-for-4 in each of the following two games. Regardless, there is progress. Over the last three weeks Devers has a .329/.368/.429 line, which is much more in line with expectations.

Low-A Greenville: Jose Almonte (RHP)

The 20-year old, Almonte has been another bright spot in the Drive’s rotation. His season started slower than he had hoped, as he was recovering from a hip/groin injury sustained during Spring Training, but since getting on the mound for regular reps he has shown what he can do. In six starts this season (31.0 innings) he holds a 2.90 RA9 (3.41 FIP), with 27 strikeouts and just 11 walks. His three pitch mix, mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup have made him difficult for the opposition. For example, in his third start of the season, easily his best, Almonte held the Braves’ affiliate hitless over six scoreless innings; two walks kept him from registering a perfect appearance. With Almonte, and 18-year-olds Anderson Espinoza and Roniel Raudes, the Drive have an exciting mix of young pitching to track over the coming years.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

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