The team that Dombrowski inherited has not been easy to change; of last year’s team, the only players to depart as free agents were Rich Hill and Craig Breslow, and while the former’s late-season flash of brilliance may be missed, the latter was unlikely to have a pronounced role. A few days after those players elected free agency, the Red Sox outrighted Alexi Ogando and Allen Craig and his now-onerous contract to the minors, and to this point, those four players and Ryan Cook (lost on waivers) are the only ones from the 2015 major league picture who may not be among the rows of smiling faces in the 2016 team photo.

Dombrowski has managed to put his stamp on this team already, but what he hasn’t done is violently shake up the roster.

Fully purged of major league Craigs, the front office made its first major move of the offseason in picking up a new one. The addition of Craig Kimbrel almost definitely made the bullpen better, but also made it more difficult to upgrade. The REd Sox hope to enjoy more complete years from the better-utilized Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, and Joe Kelly is too good to not gamble on, especially in light of potential need in the bullpen. Tommy Layne and Steven Wright both have something to offer if used in their optimal roles, and both are out of options. Robbie Ross may be the most spare of spare bullpen parts, and yet after Uehara, his may have been the steadiest of hands in the bullpen last season.

Where position players have those pesky positions to worry about, one can always upgrade a starting rotation with an ace. But while the addition of David Price may or may not fix the rotation, it does do to the starting crew what the Kimbrel pickup does to the bullpen; further changes to the rotation may be difficult to the point of leaving value on the table. It may be that no team would value Clay Buchholz as highly as do the Red Sox, and if you’re looking for someone to bet against Rick Porcello, don’t look at Dombrowski. Trading Eduardo Rodriguez would threaten to make this team the post-dynasty Yankees, and while the bulk innings of decent quality contributed by Wade Miley are why he’s valuable, they also make him something of an upgrade bottleneck.

Dombrowski has managed to put his stamp on this team already, but what he hasn’t done is violence to the roster. No valuable player has been cut, no useful but below-average player marginalized. He does have a mandate for change, though, and may yet declare some contract money a sunk cost, or some decent player not good enough to worry about losing. If the pitching staff is all but calcified–and that’s not a given–change may be coming on the position player side of things.

Small problem: every position player currently slated for a starting role is either a Red Sox institution, within a year and a half of signing a long-term deal, or part of the team’s young core. We could quibble about whether Jackie Bradley, Jr. fits in that last category, but with a solid platoon match in Chris Young on board, Bradley wouldn’t be an easy subtraction either.

The “backup plan” part of the offseason tends to come later in the offseason than December, and so even though the Red Sox are likely to pick around for rehabbing pitchers and journeymen outfielders like the rest of the sport, that’s not what we’re likely to see out of the team in Nashville. None of us know what the Red Sox know, and we may not agree with their priorities even if we knew them and had the same information. But ask yourself: if you were tasked with re-making the Red Sox into a contender and agreed there were no more roster holes to fill, what would you be looking to do at the Winter Meetings?

The Red Sox may have all manner of conversations this week, but Hanley Ramirez may dominate the team’s end of the rumor mill.

Chances are you’d wish you could snap your fingers and make the contracts of Pablo Sandoval and/or Hanley Ramirez disappear. And since the former would be about as easy to move as Benjie Molina standing between a runner and home plate, you’d probably focus your energy on trying to move Ramirez. You wouldn’t be playing with house money anymore, but you would be playing with house time; the Red Sox don’t need to do anything this week. Reality is setting in around the game right now — a deal like the Great Dodgers Contract Purge is not likely to happen, but depending on what happens this week, the Red Sox could end up in the right place at the right time by keeping their fingers on the pulse of possible Ramirez destinations.

Whether it’s in the rotation, bullpen or on the position player side, at this point the Red Sox would need to subtract to accommodate more additions, although the order of those don’t necessarily matter and Boston’s back-end starters could generate a ton of interest this week in a new spending climate they helped create. The Red Sox may have all manner of conversations this week, but Hanley Ramirez should dominate the team’s end of the rumor mill. What would that look like, you ask? Well, about that…

With no uber-prospect knocking on the door for playing time at first base, the Red Sox have almost nothing to lose by trying Han-Ram there to start the season. All it has to be is better than awful; with David Ortiz out of the picture after the 2016 season, a worst case scenario has Ramirez playing out the last two years of his contract as a potentially overpaid but eminently useful DH. That could make for an uncomfortable 2016, but it does mean that the Red Sox won’t just cut Ramirez. Dump in a trade that requires eating a ton of money, sure, but not cut.

Just as Ramirez’s defensive shortcomings and positional mystery make him a wild card for Boston, they make him very difficult to move. His contract is so big that if he’s traded somewhere to be a first baseman, that team is betting on him being a first baseman; an expensive backup option is as unlikely as Ramirez displacing a young, established starter. What the Red Sox are looking for in sizing up potential trade partners, then, are three things: 1) teams that can play Ramirez at DH now, 2) teams with a hole at first base who are also a little desperate; or 3) teams who currently have a plan in place for first base, but that can move that player somewhere else on the diamond (probably outfield). All three kinds of teams would be better trade matches if they had a bad contract or two of their own. Sure, there could be some team out there willing to give Ramirez another shot to play elsewhere in the infield (third base, if anything), but that’s a matter of lines of communication, not of advancing talks.

With the acknowledgement that in trade talks, any team can shut things down unilaterally, some fits we might hear:

• Baltimore Orioles. When Nick Cafardo reported at the end of last month that the Red Sox were looking to move Ramirez, he followed that with this: “The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense.” It’s not clear to me whether that’s part of what Cafardo was reporting, or whether that was just his opinion, but all three teams are probably priorities if the Red Sox are actively looking for fits. The awkward part of this math is that the Red Sox might look at Chris Davis if they did move Ramirez — but the Orioles are unlikely to trade for Ramirez unless Davis is already off the board. Mark Trumbo is actually a fine first baseman, which would slot Ramirez nicely at DH — and although the Orioles dealt with a little catcher logjam by trading Steve Clevenger for Trumbo, they may have been a little surprised when Matt Wieters accepted their qualifying offer. Prospect Chance Sisco may be two years away from contributing for Baltimore, and catchers that far from the majors are anything but sure things. Although it would involve taking on two players with current question marks at once, a deal that sent both Ramirez and Christian Vazquez to the Orioles could start a conversation, with Wieters sharing time with Blake Swihart and Ortiz in Boston for 2016.

• Seattle Mariners. I don’t see how the Angels fit in trade; C.J. Cron may be replaceable at DH, but Albert Pujols may need that spot — and since the team doesn’t have a similar contract to send back. acquiring Ramirez in a salary dump seems like a very unlikely way for new GM Billy Eppler to put his first stamp on the team. While Trumbo’s first team may not be a fit, though, his third might be as promising a destination for Ramirez as his fourth. The conversation would almost definitely be short; if we hear rumors of talks and a declaration from Jerry Dipoto that he’s not interested, that might be the kiss of death for Boston’s trade chances. Why? Because as Cafardo reported or observed, the team actually does make sense, and so Dipoto passing might be read as acting from a position of better-than-market knowledge about Ramirez. The Trumbo swap means that some mix of Jesus Montero, Seth Smith and Shawn O’Malley may cover most of the 1B/DH playing time, and there’s enough flexibility there for Ramirez to fit in comfortably in some way. The years involved may end up being the problem, if Dipoto is actually open to the idea: the DH spot may be needed for Nelson Cruz not too far down the line.

• Toronto Blue Jays. If one division rival makes sense, why not another? The Blue Jays had success veering wildly toward offense, and yet if Jose Bautista is in right field and Edwin Encarnacion is at first, there’s playing time available at DH with Ramirez almost definitely an upgrade over Justin Smoak. Dombrowski’s Canadian counterpart may prefer to keep DH open for regular rest for Bautista, Encarnacion and especially Troy Tulowitzki, but Mark Shapiro would probably listen — and if the talks expanded to include Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey and a prospect or two, they might gain some traction. Heck, you might even fit Alexi Ogando into a swap.

• Atlanta Braves. Hear me out. No, the team doesn’t have a DH slot to use, and no, they aren’t looking to move Freddie Freeman. What they do have, though, is a need for some kind of outfield bopper, a willingness to make big changes and a significant commitment to Hector Olivera — with a lot of uncertainty about whether Olivera can actually play in the outfield. If the Red Sox really do eat a ton of the money owed Ramirez, the Braves have little to lose. And while the Braves did get some salary relief in taking on the puzzling Olivera, they can trade that contract at sticker price. Characterize it as unlikely, but possible — even though coming across a roster with Ramirez, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher on it would be like coming across a bunch of furniture you left next to your apartment building dumpster a few months earlier.

• Miami Marlins. Admit it, trading Bad Hanley to the Marlins would feel at least as good as trading Good Hanley felt bad. If a deal were pitched to Jeffrey Loria as some kind of expanded roster sharing, maybe he bites? And while the team wants what seems like an unrealistic return for Martin Prado, the 11,000,000 dollars remaining on the Prado contract seem to form the makings of a promising trade scenario. The Marlins could be willing to try Ramirez at third with Prado gone, and if that didn’t work — or if they didn’t want to try — Ramirez makes for a nice platoon pairing with first baseman Justin Bour. This would be a salary dump kind of move, but adding Prado to uber-utilityman Brock Holt would allow the Red Sox to break camp with just four true outfielders, providing insurance for a Travis Shaw experiment and potentially enabling the team to carry all three of Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan and Christian Vazquez.

• San Diego Padres. Reports are that the team would be willing to move James Shields, but that they don’t want to eat money, and that they’d like a middle infielder back in return. That we’re hearing that Shields is available is some indication that he’s really available. And had Shields pitched about as well as expected in 2016, his contract would still be effectively a liability, with only his older seasons left on his deal and with the winner’s curse of the Padres paying more for him than anyone (including the Red Sox) were willing to pay a year ago. Sure, they could get an infielder back without kicking in Shields money — if they took another contract back. And while the optics of having two diminished recent Dodgers in the lineup may be a hard sell in San Diego, there’s room here for a match — and with Yonder Alonso traded to Oakland for Drew Pomeranz, default first baseman Wil Myers could slot back into the outfield. Deven Merrero would seem like a small price to pay to swap Ramirez for Shields, even if the Red Sox had to eat $30M of the $68M owed Ramirez while picking up the Shields tab. Wade Miley might also be a candidate to be included in that kind of deal, although it would change the dollars involved — and if the Red Sox trade Miley first, Shields/Ramirez becomes a lot more interesting.

This week should be as fun a Winter Meetings period as it ever is, but if your heart is with the Red Sox, there’s really no anxiety factor — the team can only make a strong offseason stronger, and there’s no way for failure to act to be a failure. We’ve only begun to see Dave Dombrowski remake the roster, with only the easiest parts out of the way. Regardless of the circumstances and whether or not it’s through one of the matches above, trading Hanley Ramirez would pave the way for even more changes — and it may be the biggest possible win the front office could pull off this week.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

During this debacle of a season one thing has been made abundantly clear to both Red Sox fans and upper management: changes need to be made for 2016.  

There have been countless disappointments in 2015, but chief among them have been Boston’s two biggest offseason signings: Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. You know this by now, but Ramirez has proven to be the worst defensive outfielder in baseball (maybe in history), while Sandoval has underwhelmed at third.

With David Ortiz again showing that he is an ageless wonder, moving one of Sandoval or Ramirez to DH next year will be impossible.  One of the two needs to go because the team cannot sustain such poor defenders at two positions again.  We saw the results of this terrible defense manifeste in a team ERA that was ranked 28th in baseball while, as Matt Kory recently pointed out, ranking 12th in DRA and 14th in FIP.   Sandoval is the easier of the two players to trade considering age, track record, and, the weakness of this year’s crop of free agent third baseman.  

Sandoval has just turned 29 years old, and although he has been a nightmare defensively this season (-14.5 DEF, -16.1 UZR) he actually has a history of being a serviceable defender, posting positive marks in four out of his seven previous seasons.  By all accounts his weight and conditioning has been an issue throughout his career with the Giants and their control over him was cited as a reason for his choosing the Red Sox.  Well, it turns out Sandoval isn’t one for self-control and the Red Sox found that out the hard way as the hands-off approach the team took early in the year has manifested itself into a less athletic Panda than ever, despite his denial it has become a problem.

Still, Sandoval has played better of late and has a track-record of success, and teams are going to be hard-pressed to find upgrades at third in free agency this winter. In fact, this year’s “headliners” are the long-in-the-tooth Juan Uribe, the likely-to-retire Aramis Ramirez and the light-hitting David Freese.  Instead of gambling on Uribe at 36 or Ramirez at 37-years-old, gambling on Pablo having a bounce back looks like a pretty attractive option.  The offensive and defensive track record for Sandoval was strong enough to garner significant interest last offseason, pitting the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants against each other in a bidding war for his services.

The Padres reportedly offered Sandoval five years and over $100M to come play in sunny San Diego, but he chose Boston.  The Padres still need him and their plethora of good right-handed pitching is something that the Red Sox desperately need.  Time to start Prellermania 2.0, where A.J. and Dave pick up the phones and make this one work.

The Trade  

Boston Sends: Pablo Sandoval, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brian Johnson and Sean Coyle

San Diego Sends: James Shields and Craig Kimbrel

Why the Trade Works for Boston    

As I mentioned in the lead, Boston may be able to make one defensive liability work but having two is simply untenable.  The return of Shields and Kimbrel won’t turn the Red Sox into a playoff team right away but it sure gets them on the right track.  Thus far in 2015, the Red Sox have the third worst rotation ERA in baseball at a whopping 4.92.  Their bullpen ERA is slightly less ugly at 4.30, but that’s still “good” enough for fourth worst in the league.  Trading for Shields and Kimbrel would help to address both issues.

While Shields may not be a number one starter anymore, at 33-years-old he still seems to have a lot left in the tank.  His ERA of 3.74 is his worst mark since his terrible season in 2010 but it masks a 3.43 SIERA, which is his best mark of the last three seasons.  Shields is signed for $21M a year for the next three seasons with a team option at $16M for 2019.  His high price makes sending money in the deal unnecessary, and he should provide No. 2/3 starter upside over the course of his deal.  

Kimbrel may have taken a slight step back from his normal dominant self this year but that hardly condemns him as ineffective.  Though his walks have risen this year the 27-year-old Kimbrel is still striking out 34.2% of the batters he faces, and since 2011 his K-BB rate of 31.8% trails only Kenley Jansen for the league lead amongst qualified relievers.  He would help solidify a bullpen that, baring health and the realization that Joe Kelly is not a starter, could have a trio of Kelly, Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel for the 7-9th innings.  

Boston can afford to give up Bradley due to Mookie Betts’ also elite defense and more advanced bat.  As much as I love the idea of a defensive masterpiece of Rusney Castillo, Betts, and Bradley patrolling the outfield, having JBJ at a corner spot will simply not do.  Brian Johnson is a strong prospect who profiles as a very solid 4/5 starter, but the Red Sox can afford to part ways with him to solidify the bullpen and rotation.  The 23-year-old Sean Coyle took a step back in AAA this year but challenged for 20/20 in 2014 at AA while batting .295. The presence of Dustin Pedroia in the majors and Yoan Moncada in the minors make it dubious at best that he’ll find a role in Boston.

Why the Trade Works for San Diego

It’s clear now that the Padres’ one off-season turnaround plan has failed miserably, and perhaps the biggest reason for that was the gross miscalculation that Matt Kemp was a serviceable right fielder and Wil Myers was a real center fielder.  The duo have so far posted UZRs of -11.9 and -9.7, respectively. These represent the worst and second worst marks on the team for players with over 200 innings and it has tormented their pitching staff all year.  

Bradley Jr.’s arrival and the probably impending free-agent exit of Justin Upton will do wonders to cure this ailment.  In 2014, when JBJ was given most of the year to hold down the starting center field job for the Sox, he had a 15.9 UZR and 17.3 defensive rating, making him on a game-by-game basis the best defensive center fielder in the league.  His arrival will allow Myers to shift to right field where he belongs and allow the Padres to hide Kemp’s deficiencies in left field.  JBJ’s ability to cover ground in the spacious outfield of Petco Park will cover up countless mistakes and turn this into a darn good outfield.

Pablo Sandoval will arrive to man third base and I bet that he will have a chip on his shoulder for two reasons: being jettisoned by the Red Sox and competing in the same division as his old ball club.  If Preller can get him on an intense conditioning routine, he could provide a valuable offensive upgrade at third and solidify a huge weakness.  

Johnson fits so well with the club mostly because the Padres have been trotting out a rotation of James Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, and Colin Rea, all right-handers.  If you look the DL and to the minor leagues there are no left-handed starters on the horizon unless you count 30-year-old and twice tommy john survivor Corey Luebke.  I don’t count him and they shouldn’t count on him either. Left-handed starters have been increasingly effective over the last few seasons and the young cost controlled Johnson will spend most of his prime under team control.   Johnson isn’t an ace but his pitchability is off the charts.  His ability to display above average command and hit his spots should only play up in the spacious ballpark and refined outfield defense.          

The money situation favors the Padres here as well, since Kimbrel and Shields combine for $28M in 2016, $30M in 2017, and $31M in 2018.  It’s only when 2019 rolls around that San Diego will have to pay Sandoval $18M and Kimbrel and Shields may be off the books.  This represents a three-year savings of $37M, which can be either banked or used elsewhere to improve the club.  With the Padres aggressively shopping Jedd Gyorko, the severely blocked Sean Coyle could be a capable fill in as a long term solution is sorted out, too.  

Bottom Line

The deal helps the Red Sox and the Padres on many fronts and in different ways.  The Red Sox solidify their rotation and their bullpen, their biggest sources of ire, while getting rid of a subpar defender at third base.  This opens up either third base or first base for Hanley Ramirez, the former of which he has played before.  It should be noted that Ramirez was seen taking grounders at first base today and confirmed the switch would happen later this year as they prepare to place him there full time in 2016.

There are plenty of internal options for fill-ins at third as well with Brock Holt, Travis Shaw and Garin Cecchini all coming to mind.  It may not be pretty, but after this year isn’t anything better?  The likeliest long-term solution at the position is the super-athletic Yoan Moncada who, after a rough start, is dominating in in Single-A Greenville.  It’s not farfetched to imagine a 2017 Red Sox team with Moncada at third and Ramirez taking over at DH for the retired David Ortiz should first base not work out.  This move sets the Sox on a path closer to contention for a problem that may not have a solution in just one off-season.    

The Padres’ pitching depth and farther-off window to compete make trading the 33-year-old Shields a no brainer, and the luxury of an expensive closer in Kimbrel is one that a club without  playoff aspirations doesn’t need.  The in-house option of Brandon Mauer looks like a very good choice for a future closer.  

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