Acquired RHP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias from theSeattle Mariners in exchange for LHP Wade Miley and RHPJonathan Aro. [12/7]

The joke, as you may have heard, is that Dave Dombrowski came to Boston and inherited a team with a lot of solid pieces and loads of potential. The only part of the team that was a complete disaster was the bullpen-the one thing that the golden god of the big-ticket trade was never able to fix in Detroit. With the acquisition of Carson Smith to complement Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara, it looks like Dombo might have cracked the bullpen code.

All you need to do is give up one or two top-50 minor leaguers and a solid cost-controlled left-handed starter, and you too can build a very scary late-inning composite!

The team that Dombrowski inherited has not been easy to change; of last year’s team, the only players to depart as free agents were Rich Hill and Craig Breslow, and while the former’s late-season flash of brilliance may be missed, the latter was unlikely to have a pronounced role. A few days after those players elected free agency, the Red Sox outrighted Alexi Ogando and Allen Craig and his now-onerous contract to the minors, and to this point, those four players and Ryan Cook (lost on waivers) are the only ones from the 2015 major league picture who may not be among the rows of smiling faces in the 2016 team photo.

Dombrowski has managed to put his stamp on this team already, but what he hasn’t done is violently shake up the roster.

Fully purged of major league Craigs, the front office made its first major move of the offseason in picking up a new one. The addition of Craig Kimbrel almost definitely made the bullpen better, but also made it more difficult to upgrade. The REd Sox hope to enjoy more complete years from the better-utilized Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, and Joe Kelly is too good to not gamble on, especially in light of potential need in the bullpen. Tommy Layne and Steven Wright both have something to offer if used in their optimal roles, and both are out of options. Robbie Ross may be the most spare of spare bullpen parts, and yet after Uehara, his may have been the steadiest of hands in the bullpen last season.

Where position players have those pesky positions to worry about, one can always upgrade a starting rotation with an ace. But while the addition of David Price may or may not fix the rotation, it does do to the starting crew what the Kimbrel pickup does to the bullpen; further changes to the rotation may be difficult to the point of leaving value on the table. It may be that no team would value Clay Buchholz as highly as do the Red Sox, and if you’re looking for someone to bet against Rick Porcello, don’t look at Dombrowski. Trading Eduardo Rodriguez would threaten to make this team the post-dynasty Yankees, and while the bulk innings of decent quality contributed by Wade Miley are why he’s valuable, they also make him something of an upgrade bottleneck.

Dombrowski has managed to put his stamp on this team already, but what he hasn’t done is violence to the roster. No valuable player has been cut, no useful but below-average player marginalized. He does have a mandate for change, though, and may yet declare some contract money a sunk cost, or some decent player not good enough to worry about losing. If the pitching staff is all but calcified–and that’s not a given–change may be coming on the position player side of things.

Small problem: every position player currently slated for a starting role is either a Red Sox institution, within a year and a half of signing a long-term deal, or part of the team’s young core. We could quibble about whether Jackie Bradley, Jr. fits in that last category, but with a solid platoon match in Chris Young on board, Bradley wouldn’t be an easy subtraction either.

The “backup plan” part of the offseason tends to come later in the offseason than December, and so even though the Red Sox are likely to pick around for rehabbing pitchers and journeymen outfielders like the rest of the sport, that’s not what we’re likely to see out of the team in Nashville. None of us know what the Red Sox know, and we may not agree with their priorities even if we knew them and had the same information. But ask yourself: if you were tasked with re-making the Red Sox into a contender and agreed there were no more roster holes to fill, what would you be looking to do at the Winter Meetings?

The Red Sox may have all manner of conversations this week, but Hanley Ramirez may dominate the team’s end of the rumor mill.

Chances are you’d wish you could snap your fingers and make the contracts of Pablo Sandoval and/or Hanley Ramirez disappear. And since the former would be about as easy to move as Benjie Molina standing between a runner and home plate, you’d probably focus your energy on trying to move Ramirez. You wouldn’t be playing with house money anymore, but you would be playing with house time; the Red Sox don’t need to do anything this week. Reality is setting in around the game right now — a deal like the Great Dodgers Contract Purge is not likely to happen, but depending on what happens this week, the Red Sox could end up in the right place at the right time by keeping their fingers on the pulse of possible Ramirez destinations.

Whether it’s in the rotation, bullpen or on the position player side, at this point the Red Sox would need to subtract to accommodate more additions, although the order of those don’t necessarily matter and Boston’s back-end starters could generate a ton of interest this week in a new spending climate they helped create. The Red Sox may have all manner of conversations this week, but Hanley Ramirez should dominate the team’s end of the rumor mill. What would that look like, you ask? Well, about that…

With no uber-prospect knocking on the door for playing time at first base, the Red Sox have almost nothing to lose by trying Han-Ram there to start the season. All it has to be is better than awful; with David Ortiz out of the picture after the 2016 season, a worst case scenario has Ramirez playing out the last two years of his contract as a potentially overpaid but eminently useful DH. That could make for an uncomfortable 2016, but it does mean that the Red Sox won’t just cut Ramirez. Dump in a trade that requires eating a ton of money, sure, but not cut.

Just as Ramirez’s defensive shortcomings and positional mystery make him a wild card for Boston, they make him very difficult to move. His contract is so big that if he’s traded somewhere to be a first baseman, that team is betting on him being a first baseman; an expensive backup option is as unlikely as Ramirez displacing a young, established starter. What the Red Sox are looking for in sizing up potential trade partners, then, are three things: 1) teams that can play Ramirez at DH now, 2) teams with a hole at first base who are also a little desperate; or 3) teams who currently have a plan in place for first base, but that can move that player somewhere else on the diamond (probably outfield). All three kinds of teams would be better trade matches if they had a bad contract or two of their own. Sure, there could be some team out there willing to give Ramirez another shot to play elsewhere in the infield (third base, if anything), but that’s a matter of lines of communication, not of advancing talks.

With the acknowledgement that in trade talks, any team can shut things down unilaterally, some fits we might hear:

• Baltimore Orioles. When Nick Cafardo reported at the end of last month that the Red Sox were looking to move Ramirez, he followed that with this: “The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense.” It’s not clear to me whether that’s part of what Cafardo was reporting, or whether that was just his opinion, but all three teams are probably priorities if the Red Sox are actively looking for fits. The awkward part of this math is that the Red Sox might look at Chris Davis if they did move Ramirez — but the Orioles are unlikely to trade for Ramirez unless Davis is already off the board. Mark Trumbo is actually a fine first baseman, which would slot Ramirez nicely at DH — and although the Orioles dealt with a little catcher logjam by trading Steve Clevenger for Trumbo, they may have been a little surprised when Matt Wieters accepted their qualifying offer. Prospect Chance Sisco may be two years away from contributing for Baltimore, and catchers that far from the majors are anything but sure things. Although it would involve taking on two players with current question marks at once, a deal that sent both Ramirez and Christian Vazquez to the Orioles could start a conversation, with Wieters sharing time with Blake Swihart and Ortiz in Boston for 2016.

• Seattle Mariners. I don’t see how the Angels fit in trade; C.J. Cron may be replaceable at DH, but Albert Pujols may need that spot — and since the team doesn’t have a similar contract to send back. acquiring Ramirez in a salary dump seems like a very unlikely way for new GM Billy Eppler to put his first stamp on the team. While Trumbo’s first team may not be a fit, though, his third might be as promising a destination for Ramirez as his fourth. The conversation would almost definitely be short; if we hear rumors of talks and a declaration from Jerry Dipoto that he’s not interested, that might be the kiss of death for Boston’s trade chances. Why? Because as Cafardo reported or observed, the team actually does make sense, and so Dipoto passing might be read as acting from a position of better-than-market knowledge about Ramirez. The Trumbo swap means that some mix of Jesus Montero, Seth Smith and Shawn O’Malley may cover most of the 1B/DH playing time, and there’s enough flexibility there for Ramirez to fit in comfortably in some way. The years involved may end up being the problem, if Dipoto is actually open to the idea: the DH spot may be needed for Nelson Cruz not too far down the line.

• Toronto Blue Jays. If one division rival makes sense, why not another? The Blue Jays had success veering wildly toward offense, and yet if Jose Bautista is in right field and Edwin Encarnacion is at first, there’s playing time available at DH with Ramirez almost definitely an upgrade over Justin Smoak. Dombrowski’s Canadian counterpart may prefer to keep DH open for regular rest for Bautista, Encarnacion and especially Troy Tulowitzki, but Mark Shapiro would probably listen — and if the talks expanded to include Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey and a prospect or two, they might gain some traction. Heck, you might even fit Alexi Ogando into a swap.

• Atlanta Braves. Hear me out. No, the team doesn’t have a DH slot to use, and no, they aren’t looking to move Freddie Freeman. What they do have, though, is a need for some kind of outfield bopper, a willingness to make big changes and a significant commitment to Hector Olivera — with a lot of uncertainty about whether Olivera can actually play in the outfield. If the Red Sox really do eat a ton of the money owed Ramirez, the Braves have little to lose. And while the Braves did get some salary relief in taking on the puzzling Olivera, they can trade that contract at sticker price. Characterize it as unlikely, but possible — even though coming across a roster with Ramirez, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher on it would be like coming across a bunch of furniture you left next to your apartment building dumpster a few months earlier.

• Miami Marlins. Admit it, trading Bad Hanley to the Marlins would feel at least as good as trading Good Hanley felt bad. If a deal were pitched to Jeffrey Loria as some kind of expanded roster sharing, maybe he bites? And while the team wants what seems like an unrealistic return for Martin Prado, the 11,000,000 dollars remaining on the Prado contract seem to form the makings of a promising trade scenario. The Marlins could be willing to try Ramirez at third with Prado gone, and if that didn’t work — or if they didn’t want to try — Ramirez makes for a nice platoon pairing with first baseman Justin Bour. This would be a salary dump kind of move, but adding Prado to uber-utilityman Brock Holt would allow the Red Sox to break camp with just four true outfielders, providing insurance for a Travis Shaw experiment and potentially enabling the team to carry all three of Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan and Christian Vazquez.

• San Diego Padres. Reports are that the team would be willing to move James Shields, but that they don’t want to eat money, and that they’d like a middle infielder back in return. That we’re hearing that Shields is available is some indication that he’s really available. And had Shields pitched about as well as expected in 2016, his contract would still be effectively a liability, with only his older seasons left on his deal and with the winner’s curse of the Padres paying more for him than anyone (including the Red Sox) were willing to pay a year ago. Sure, they could get an infielder back without kicking in Shields money — if they took another contract back. And while the optics of having two diminished recent Dodgers in the lineup may be a hard sell in San Diego, there’s room here for a match — and with Yonder Alonso traded to Oakland for Drew Pomeranz, default first baseman Wil Myers could slot back into the outfield. Deven Merrero would seem like a small price to pay to swap Ramirez for Shields, even if the Red Sox had to eat $30M of the $68M owed Ramirez while picking up the Shields tab. Wade Miley might also be a candidate to be included in that kind of deal, although it would change the dollars involved — and if the Red Sox trade Miley first, Shields/Ramirez becomes a lot more interesting.

This week should be as fun a Winter Meetings period as it ever is, but if your heart is with the Red Sox, there’s really no anxiety factor — the team can only make a strong offseason stronger, and there’s no way for failure to act to be a failure. We’ve only begun to see Dave Dombrowski remake the roster, with only the easiest parts out of the way. Regardless of the circumstances and whether or not it’s through one of the matches above, trading Hanley Ramirez would pave the way for even more changes — and it may be the biggest possible win the front office could pull off this week.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Unsurprisingly, all three top plays belong to the Mariners. First on the list is Logan Morrison’s single in the second inning (.108) off Steven Wright. That play set up Mike Zunino with an RBI single (.096) a few batters later. Finally, Brad Miller’s homer (.073) in the fifth inning felt like a grand slam given the way the Sox have hit as of late.

Don’t be too hard on Wright here. The knuckleballer went five innings and gave up two earned runs (though his unearned run was due to a knuckleball), and you can’t ask for much more from your sixth starter. Except Wright is Boston’s fifth starter now, and there’s very little upside in his right arm. Unless Rick Porcello and Clay Buchholz pitch like they’ve pitched lately for the rest of the year, the Red Sox need an arm who can shut good opposing teams down. Wright probably isn’t that guy.

Bottom Play (WPA): In the top of the fifth with one out and Brock Holt on at first, Blake Swihart hit into a double play (-.057). That this was statistically the best shot the Sox had at shifting the game in their favor should tell you all you need to know about the offense’s lackluster performance.

Next up on the list is Dustin Ackley’s bases-loaded strikeout in the bottom of the second (-.056), followed closely by a Dustin Pedroia fielder’s choice in the third and a Swihart groundout in the seventh. Feel the excitement.

Key Moment: It’s tough to pick one in such a mediocre effort, but I’ll go with Swihart’s groundout in the second. After a single by Xander Bogaerts and a double by Holt, the Sox could’ve made this a close game with a well-placed single from the young catcher. Instead, the Sox were caput when Swihart rolled over softy to Robinson Cano. Mookie Betts’ foul ball that missed being a homer by less than a foot is significant as well, yet it still would’ve only brought the Red Sox to within three.

Trend to Watch: The Red Sox are now scoring just 3.97 runs per game, down at 20th in the league. They’re not getting any production from first base, right field or catcher, and David Ortiz is having a down year. Add in that Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are more “ok” than “good” right now, and it’s easy to be discouraged.

Coming Next: The Red Sox play host to the Texas Rangers starting on Tuesday, and one would hope this is a series that can get the team back on track. First up, Wade Miley will take on Yovani Gallardo, and we’ll see if his devil magic from his last start holds up. After a three-game stint against Texas, the Sox will face more of a challenge against the Angles.

Photo by Jennifer Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

Before we dive into the validity of the narrative, I have just a few qualifiers. For one thing, I looked strictly at the games against the A’s, Mariners and Angels. Texas, and more recently Houston, are also in the AL West, but Texas is barely west. There have also been some trips to play the NL West, but those aren’t really the games we think of when we think of “The West Coast Trip.” So, with those arbitrary guidelines set, let’s dive into the results from the last five seasons.

So, we see that the numbers support the narrative to a small extent, especially for the last three seasons. The team was hovering right around .500 heading into the trip last season, then fell flat on their face out west and never fully recovered. Even in the magical 2013 season, the Red Sox played well below their typical record when they traveled across the country, although they were able to recover from that one.

Then we have 2012, the Nickelback of Red Sox seasons. The year of Bobby Valentine, Daniel Bard’s demise and Alfredo Aceves: closer. It’s hard to remember now, but that team went through most of the first part of that year hovering around .500, never really diving into that horrible squad we remember. This is the best example of the west coast trip ruining the season, and it happened twice! On two separate west coast trips they won less than a third of their games, and then played significantly worse from that point forward than they had previously.

The narrative of the west coast trip will never die, and it’s refreshing to know there is some merit to it. Obviously, this isn’t a sample large enough to take any meaningful conclusions from, but rather to conserve a little bit of sanity. We all feel like the west coast trip ruins seasons, and we see that it happened first-hand in 2012. We also see that the team’s performance has fallen off after they return to the friendly confines of the east coast. This year the Sox are 3-1 on the west coast so far, but they still have time to get to .500 or worse.

There is only one solution to this problem: Ban the west coast.

Photo by Ed Szczepanski/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): The top two plays in this game really come courtesy of Rickie Weeks staying in the game to play left field after his pinch hitting appearance in the bottom of the eighth. Brock Holt lead off the inning with a hit to left. Hustling out of the box like he always does, Holt attempted to turn his hit into a double and Weeks obliged by air-mailing his throw to second base almost all the way to first (WPA: + .177). Xander Bogaerts sacrificed Holt to third, and then Pablo Sandoval, pinch hitting for Blake Swihart, was hit by a pitch. Mookie Betts came to the plate with runners on first and third and one out. He battled through six Fernando Rodney pitches before lifting an 84 mph changeup to left field for what appeared to be a routine sacrifice fly, with a possible play at the plate. But, Weeks dropped the fly ball, allowing Holt to score what ended being the winning run easily. Sandoval to advance to second, and Betts safely reached first (WPA: + .189).

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play of the game belonged to the Mariners’ Kyle Seager. With the game tied at one in the bottom of the eighth he came to the plate with runners on first and second. Seager grounded Matt Barnes’ second pitch of the plate appearance to short for an inning-ending 6-4-3 double play (WPA: – .158). Dustin Pedroia really made this play happen. He made an excellent turn at second, coming across the bag to receive Bogaerts’ throw, avoiding the runner (Nelson Cruz) who was bearing down on him and then throwing across his body perfectly to get Seager at first. It was a tremendous effort.

Key Moment: There were many key moments in this game, but it was two Red Sox defensive plays that kept this game close. In the 4th inning, after retiring Robinson Cano, Sox starter Joe Kelly gave up back-to-back singles to Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager and then walked Logan Morrison to load the bases. He struck out Mike Zunino for the second out, bringing Dustin Ackley to the plate. Ackley grounded the ball to first base somewhat harmlessly, but the last hop ate Mike Napoli up such that the ball deflected off his glove and appeared to be ticketed for right field and a 2-1 Mariners lead. But Pedroia was in perfect position to play the carom off Nap’s glove and throw to Joe Kelly covering first base to retire Ackley and end the inning. Check it out:

In the 7th inning with the score tied at one, one out and a runner on first, Mariners’ pinch hitter Justin Ruggiano drove a Tommy Layne slider to right field that looked like it would get over Shane Victorino’s head. But Victorino sprinted back to make an excellent catch on the warning track, then quickly turned and threw the ball back to first base to double-up the runner that had been stealing on the pitch.

Defense really was a critical part of this game.

Trend to Watch: The Mariners have lined up three left-handed starting pitchers for this series against the Red Sox. It has been suggested that it was an intentional move by the Mariners to take advantage of how poorly the Red Sox have performed against left handed pitching this season. Last night, Roenis Elias was the first of the lefty starters for the Mariners to battle the Red Sox and despite giving up eight hits, he managed to limit run scoring. Going into last night’s game the Sox’ offense had a .188/.290/.346 (76 wRC+) line in their 317 plate appearances against lefties, which is quite a bit worse than what they have done in their 1014 plate appearances against right-handed pitching: .243/.319/.367 (91 wRC+) – another line that is not all that impressive. This is an odd split for this team to have, as most of the everyday guys hit right-handed (Betts, Pedroia, Hanley, Napoli, Bogaerts), Sandoval, Nava, and Swihart switch-hit – although Sandoval and Nava’s issues with lefties are well known – and guys like Hanigan, Victorino, and Craig all hit right-handed when they have been in the lineup. These right-handed hitters should beat up on left-handed pitching, but they have not been doing so. At this point in the season the difficulty hitting lefties is likely just random variation and will work itself out over the next couple of months, but it is something worth keeping an eye on.

Coming next: Clay Buchholz will toe the rubber against Mariners’ lefty J.A. Happ. Buchholz outing on Sunday against the Blue Jays was better than his previous two outings. He went 6.1 innings, gave up seven hits, three runs, walked three and struck out three. He managed to strand most of the base runners while allowing a lot of contact, which is not typically a recipe for success. He will need to be better. J.A. Happ has been a welcome addition to the Seattle Mariners, coming to the team in an offseason trade that sent Michael Saunders to the Blue Jays. He has a 3.29 ERA and 3.46 FIP, which are both well below his career rates (4.20, 4.32, respectively). Moving out of the Rogers Centre and into Safeco Field will help anybody. Happ has a 2.33 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 19.1 innings pitched at home and a 4.26 ERA (3.46 FIP) in 19.0 innings pitched on the road, although this difference is really because of one blowup start against the Astros. His home park may be part of his better than usual performance, but the biggest change for Happ this season compared to previous seasons has been a big increase in his ground ball rate (44.0% this year, 38.4% for his career).

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images