The clearest example, to me anyway, of an injury limiting the Red Sox’s roster flexibility is Hanley Ramirez’s bum shoulder. The injury is preventing him from playing first base, and it is sapping his power: he has a career low isolated power of .167, which is another one of the many reasons the offense is underperforming. But let’s focus on the defensive aspect of the injury. Hanley’s inability to handle innings on defense has a knock-on effect that limits the team from consistently gaining a platoon advantage. If Hanley plays first base on days the Red Sox are opposing a left-handed pitcher, then Mitch Moreland can have a day-off (as he does not typically fare well against lefties), and lefty-masher Chris Young can slide into the designated hitter spot or even play outfield, thereby giving one of the young Bs a day at DH, and a pseudo-day-off. Taken together, that all sounds great: get an opposite handed batter into the lineup without losing too much on defense, and get guys a bit of rest. But Hanley can’t do it. So Moreland plays first everyday (he has played in 70 out of the Red Sox’s 75 games), regardless of the handedness of the opponent, and Young ends up with sporadic playing time that doesn’t necessarily align with his strength. Consider that the reduced flexibility I just described is just the outcome of Hanley’s issue. Factor in the losses of versatile, multi-position players like Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez and the roster becomes even more rigid.

Missing out on platoon advantage situations is a negative aspect of roster rigidity. Over and over again we hear about the advantage batters have when confronting opposite-handed pitchers. Maximizing these opportunities through day-to-day lineup adjustments, like those I described above, and late game pinch hitting decisions can boost an offense. Unfortunately, to date, the Red Sox have not been able to do so. According to the data available on Baseball Reference’s Play Index Splits Finder, through Saturday’s game, only 47.1 percent of the Red Sox’s offensive plate appearances have been with the platoon advantage. That percentage, almost half, might not sound so bad, but it is the fifth lowest percentage in baseball and a long way behind the Cleveland Flying Franconas’ league-leading mark of 71.85 percent; life is nice when you have three switch-hitters in your everyday lineup. Converting all 43 of Mitch Moreland’s plate appearances against lefties to Chris Young doesn’t shoot the Red Sox to the top of charts on this measure, but it moves them up a few spots and, most importantly, would likely have increased the production they got in those plate appearances.

You’re not going to platoon Mookie Betts. That would be absurd. He hits everybody well. But Chris Young hits lefties much better than Mitch Moreland. Brock Holt will hit a fireballing right-handed reliever better than Christian Vazquez.

The platoon advantage is not everything. Many poor offenses have had a large percentage of their plate appearances set up in their favor by handedness, and many of the strong offenses have often faced a disadvantage by handedness. At the team level, the correlation between percentage-of-plate-appearances-with-the-platoon-advantage and TAv is basically zero (r² = .001). After all, good players and teams can (and likely will) perform well, regardless of the advantage. It is when a team can reliably exchange a situation that presents as a disadvantage for one that is advantageous (or at least better) that the benefit can show up. You’re not going to platoon Mookie Betts. That would be absurd. He hits everybody well. But Chris Young hits lefties much better than Mitch Moreland. Brock Holt (or even Marco Hernandez) will hit a fireballing right-handed reliever better than Christian Vazquez. These are the situations that could be exploited by the Red Sox, but the lack of lineup flexibility presented by their injuries prevents it from happening.

It is worth noting that the Red Sox’s low percentage of plate appearances with the platoon advantage is not only present with the offense. On the pitching side, teams ideally get as many same-handed matchups as they can, but a rotation of Rick Porcello and a series of lefties (Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson) limits the extent to which that is possible. Accordingly, the Red Sox’s pitchers have only had the platoon advantage in 41.09 percent of their matchups, which is the second lowest mark in baseball, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals. Terry Francona and his boys are on top here as well, with 53.83 percent of their matchups being same-handed affairs. The Red Sox are a top-10 team by runs allowed, so all these disadvantaged plate appearances are not killing them – at the team level, the correlation between percentage-of-plate-appearances-with-the-platoon-advantage and RA is a little stronger than the comparison for the offensive numbers, but not much better (r² = .088).

Combine the offense and the defense and the Red Sox have had the platoon advantage the second least often in baseball:

In the end, it is really difficult to know what to take away from this fact. On the one hand, the lack of lineup flexibility and predominantly-left-handed rotation have put the Red Sox in less advantageous situations more than almost any other team in the game. But, on the other hand, they are in (or very near) first place, have strong pitching and defense, and the expectation is that the offense, even as currently constituted, can be much better. It would certainly be a lot of fun to watch a Red Sox team that mixes-and-matches, and uses all of its parts in order to give players the best chance to succeed as often as possible. Given the way things are looking health-wise, it seems as though, for this year, the Red Sox are going to keep plowing toward the finish line with the more straight-forward, everyday-nine approach.

Photo by Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday, in his first start of the year, Rodriguez did little to instill confidence that he is ready to make the next performance jump and have us forget that Price is still in the early stages of throwing off a mound. Over five innings against the Tigers, Rodriguez allowed four runs on five hits, two of which left the yard, and only struck out five, while walking three. All in all, it was another underwhelming Rodriguez performance that involved the same issues that have affected him throughout his tenure with the Red Sox: lacking aggression in the strike zone, which leads to the walks, and being predictable in certain counts, which leads to the extra-base hits.

Let’s start with the lacking aggression part. On Saturday, he only threw 41 of his pitches for strikes (51.3 percent), which is bad, but also not that far off his career rate of 63 percent. So maybe we should expect this sort of outing from him. His career strike rate is the 30^th lowest since 2015 among starters with at least 200 innings pitched and the guys at the wrong end of that list are primarily those who have not been able to figure out their stuff (e.g., Trevor Bauer [61.7], Carlos Rodon [61.7], and Patrick Corbin [62.8]). Oh and teammates Drew Pomeranz (62.6) and knuckleballer (!) Steven Wright (63.2) are down there with him. Your 2017 Red Sox starting rotation: not exactly a group of strike-throwers. Throwing few pitches for strikes is not in-and-of itself a guarantee that a pitcher is or will be bad. While most of the good/great/elite guys are 65+ percent, there are good pitchers on the wrong end of that list (e.g., Aaron Sanchez [61.4] and Dallas Keuchel [62.9]). But that is likely more a function of deception and movement of their pitches, and Rodriguez’s zone plot from Saturday looks like one from a guy who didn’t really know where the ball was going:

Of course, Saturday is just one start, and he may have lacked feel due it being his first on the season and the cooler temperatures in Detroit (53 degrees at game time; 12 for all you metric [read: correct] folks out there). But the inability to locate pitches in the zone, or fear of doing so, fits with a trend of Rodriguez nibbling and pitching too carefully.

The nibbling and careful pitching stems from (or perhaps leads to) Rodriguez lacking trust in his secondary offerings, which makes him predictable. Working on his offspeed pitches, specifically his slider, was a focus for Rodriguez this spring. To date he has been good at hitting one specific spot with his slider:

Eventually, major league batters will just lay off pitches they know are not thrown for strikes. And if Rodriguez knows he can’t throw his slider for a strike, then he will come to abandon it in certain counts, as he did on Saturday. Ten of the 13 sliders he threw came as the first pitch of a plate appearance or when the count got to 1-0. Tiger batters could quickly eliminate the pitch from concern, if they were even concerned to begin with. Tipping pitches, as Rodriguez has had issues with, is not just physical. It can also be due to falling into patterns. Is it a coincidence that the two home runs, and one of the two doubles Rodriguez allowed on Saturday came in 2-1 counts and all three were off his sinker? Well yes, of course it could be a coincidence, it was only three events, but similar issues with count-dependent pitch selection were present last year. For example, in two- and three-ball counts the rate at which Rodriguez threw his slider dropped considerably. The Brooks Baseball zone plot above clearly shows why he tended that way: he doesn’t throw it in the strike zone. As such he used it to start plate appearances, and in two-strike counts, hoping to get batters to chase. If I can figure this stuff out, then I suspect a major league team can figure it out and will be telling their hitters.

There is no doubt that Rodriguez has good or even great stuff, but watching him pitch can be remarkably frustrating, and his first start of the 2017 season was another example of that. He did have five strikeouts, but the three walks mitigates much of that excitement. He can be much better. I will note that even in his up-and-down 2016 season Rodriguez was an above average starter (91.9 DRA-). But again, he can be better than slightly above average. The message here is: if his potential is ever going to come to fruition, Rodriguez needs to develop and learn to trust his secondary pitches and then throw them more consistently across all counts. It is great that Rodriguez wanted to put in the work to refine his slider this spring, but (based on his first start) he still seems to lack confidence in the pitch. His new rotation-mate, Chris Sale, might know a thing or two about throwing a slider, so perhaps Rodriguez should check in with him. If Rodriguez manages to get it figured out and remains healthy, he should have the season we have been expecting.

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/11/eduardo-rodriguez-starts-off-struggling/feed/ 0 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/28/pick-your-projection-2017-red-sox-edition/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/28/pick-your-projection-2017-red-sox-edition/#comments Tue, 28 Mar 2017 18:07:12 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=17638 We are less than a week away from real, actual, meaningful Red Sox baseball. This is undoubtedly very exciting, but the proximity to the season also means we only have a few more days to obsess over player and team projections. How many wins are to be expected? Will that number be enough to win the division? Who is appears poised for an emergent season? Who will regress after a strong 2016?

At the end of last week, Ben Carsley gave insight into Baseball Prospectus’ projection for the Red Sox, which, derived from PECOTA, has the team going 87-75 and claiming top spot in the American League East. But BP isn’t the only projection system in town. For example, the folks at FanGraphs have the Red Sox pegged for an AL East winning 91-71 record; slightly more favourable than BP’s projection. The FanGraphs projection comes from the Steamer and ZiPS systems, which, given the four-win difference at the team level, must differ from PECOTA for at least a few of the players. As such, I explored which Red Sox players have the largest discrepancies between the systems.

In order to make fair comparisons between systems, it is necessary to evaluate them for a common playing time. While it is certainly interesting if the projection systems expect different amounts of playing time for a given player, that difference will be reflected in their counting statistics (e.g., wins above replacement (player) [WAR(P)]). This can make it appear as though there are large differences in expected performance, when there actually are not (other than accumulating playing time). As such, I think lining things up makes comparisons between projection systems a little cleaner. With this in mind, for what you see below the hitting projections are scaled to be per-600 plate appearances (per-450 for catchers), and the pitching projections are scaled to be per-200 innings pitched for starters and per-65 innings pitched for relievers. These playing time figures can be debated, but they are intended to represent a season’s worth of time and therefore a decent baseline.

We’ll start on the hitting side. In most cases the three systems project the players in very similar ways (i.e., within one WAR(P)), but here are the Red Sox players (who will be regulars on the big league squad) for whom there is at least a one-win difference:

It turns out the differences for these players are largely driven by how the systems view the players’ defense. This makes assessing the differences considerably more difficult, as the defensive metrics that go into these systems can vary wildly in how they evaluate actual on-field performance (e.g., Dustin Pedroia last season), let alone anticipated performance. For example, all three systems expect Xander Bogaerts to be an above-average hitting-shortstop to similar degrees, but while Steamer and ZiPS project him to be a slightly below average defender (-1.8 and -2.5 fielding runs, respectively), PECOTA is really down on his defense, projecting -8.8 fielding runs above average (FRAA). The opposite situation explains the variation in Andrew Benintendi’s projections: PECOTA essentially views him as a center-fielder playing left-field, and therefore has him contributing 17 FRAA, but ZiPS, which also likes the outlook for his defense, only has him at 5.8, and Steamer projects him to be slightly below average (-0.7). Oddly enough, Jackie Bradley Jr., the team’s actual center fielder, is given the worst defensive projection by PECOTA (1.0 FRAA), while Steamer (7.1) and ZiPS (4.9) expect much better. Finally, nobody expects Sandy Leon to continue his Babe Ruth act from 2016, but only PECOTA projects his defense to be below average.

Obviously it remains to be seen which system will project the Red Sox’s (and other teams’) hitters most accurately, but in the meantime we can get an idea of the range of possibilities by looking at the average projection, and the best (highest) and worst (lowest) cases. Here is that exact thing for what I expect to be the everyday lineup (last year’s performance is included as a reference point):

There is almost a 10-win swing between the best and worst case projections, just in the everyday nine. Getting 25 wins above replacement from this group would be great. Keep in mind that a replacement level team (i.e., 0.0 WAR(P)) is expected to win around 52 games, so the best case scenario from the everyday lineup already gets the Red Sox in the neighbourhood of a .500 record. And that is without considering the bench, or the pitching.

With that said, we should consider the pitching side of things. The pitching comparisons are especially tricky due to the fact that the WAR metrics are calculated quite differently between FanGraphs (FIP-based) and BP (DRA-based). Regardless, here are the Red Sox hurlers for whom there is at least a 1-win difference:

The rotation! While to this point I have been focused on relative differences, it is worth noting that these projections are strong. The worst of the group is Eduardo Rodriguez’s at 1.8 WARP, which is fine. For the most part the differences are between PECOTA and ZiPS. As you can see, for each player ZiPS is the high-man, with PECOTA as the low-man and Steamer in the middle. This pattern is a result of the way the metrics are calculated, and makes examining the differences hard. With the exception of Fernando Abad, these three projection systems have very similar expectations (i.e., < 0.5 win difference) for the probable Red Sox relievers. But as the table above shows, when it comes to the rotation, Red Sox fans should be rooting for the ZiPS projections to best represent what will happen this coming season.

In the end, barring major injury – I am not including David Price in that category yet – the Red Sox appear to have a clear path to the division crown. But as is evident from this little exercise, the range of outcomes is considerable. We can keep this all in mind over the next six months, but regardless of which system turns out to be most accurate, it will be nice to have the players out on the diamond playing again.

Photo by Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

A major part of Sale’s transition will be adjusting to pitching the majority of his innings against foes in the American League East, which is a different beast from Sale’s previous home in the AL Central. To give a quick and dirty idea of what I mean: in 2016, by TAv, the East teams ranked 1, 4, 8, 9, and 14 in the AL, while the Central teams ranked 3, 10, 11, 13, and 15. Simply put, the offenses were stronger in the East last year. But it was not just last year; similar differences in offensive quality exist between these two divisions going back to 2012 (Sale’s first full year as a big league starting pitcher). The combination of the ballparks and the ways in which the teams were constructed has tended to favor offense in the East.

The good news for Sale and the Red Sox is that in his career, Sale has pitched very well against East teams (2.86 RA9, 22 HR, 259 SO, 68 BB in 226.1 IP) and in East ballparks (2.62 RA9, 7 HR, 146 SO, 35 BB in 134.0 IP). Those numbers are ridiculous and actually a little better than Sale’s standout career numbers. This success against the East division is wonderful to make note of and should help quell the concern about his move to Boston. But that’s too easy. Let’s fan the flames of that fire by looking at four batters who currently reside in the AL East – and will therefore see Sale more often than in previous seasons – with whom Sale has had (relative) difficulty.

Before getting to the hitters, I will note that specific pitcher-hitter matchups are mostly noise due to the low number of plate appearances, so highlighting these matchups is not meant to suggest that the Sale-mashing will continue from these guys, but rather that they are a point of interest and something to look for this coming season. It will probably not surprise you that each of the hitters who have had success against Sale and are focused on below are right-handed and are good hitters in general. As a reference, for his career, Chris Sale has held right-handed opponents to a .231/.283/.376 line (.235 TAv).

Chase Headley (3B, Yankees)

I can’t put my finger on exactly why, but I don’t really like Chase Headley. Maybe it is because I wanted him to come to Boston two years ago rather than Pablo Sandoval but then he went to the Yankees. Maybe it is because he got chippy with Rick Porcello last year. I don’t know. But if he keeps hitting Chris Sale like he has (.385/.429/.923 in 14 PA), it is going to get worse between me and Chase. Two of Headley’s five hits off Sale have been home runs, and they both were no doubters: as a Padre and as a Yankee.

Mark Trumbo (DH/OF, Orioles)

We used Trumbo as an example of that incredible thing that Sale does to get hitters to swing at pitches that hit them, but while he has been embarrassed by Sale he has done damage against him. In 15 PA he holds a .357/.400/.714 line that includes two doubles and a home run. Trumbo seemed to have Sale figured out one day in 2012, as he went 3-for-3 with a double off him, but since then he has only two hits (the other double and the home run), one walk, and five strikeouts. Take out those first three plate appearances and Trumbo’s line against Sale drops to .182/.250/.546. Ahh, the fun of variance in small samples. In any case, ideally Sale can hold the recent trend and keep Trumbo from rekindling that May 17^th, 2012 magic.

Adam Jones (OF, Orioles)

Trumbo’s teammate Adam Jones has also generally fared well when facing Sale, posting a .308/.400/.538 line in 15 PA. But, like Trumbo, much of his success came during one season. For Jones it was the 2014 season, in which he worked Sale over for three hits (one left the yard) in six trips to the plate; he struck out the other three times. In Jones’ subsequent six PA he has a single and a walk.

Steve Pearce (IF/OF, Blue Jays)

If not for the straightforward platoon advantage aspect, Pearce’s numbers are sure to get him in the lineup when the Jays oppose Sale. In 13 PA, Pearce has a .333/.385/.417 line against Sale with one double, one walk and only one strikeout. That last bit is the most interesting. Pearce has done well with putting the ball in play off Sale and it has led to some success. Pearce will take Justin Smoak’s (.143/.400/.143 in 10 PA) or Ezequiel Carrera’s (.250/.250/.250 in 4 PA) spot, making the Jays’ lineup a bigger challenge than it already is with the likes of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Bautista. However, of those three only Donaldson (.278/.300/.611, two HR in 20 PA) has had much success against Sale. Edwin Encarnacion has hit Sale well in his career (.385/.500/.615 in 16 PA) but he moved his parrot wrangling services to Cleveland and made facing the Jays substantially easier for Sale (and everybody else).

All told, pitching in the AL East, and specifically in Fenway Park, more often than he has in the past is going to present a challenge for Chris Sale in his first year with the Red Sox. There are some high-powered lineups and ballparks where the ball flies in the East, but Sale has a track record of dominance that is not a house-of-cards built on pitching in the AL Central. Sure there some right-handed hitters he is going to see more often who have had success in their limited chances against him, but there are also other, typically excellent, right-handed hitters that have struggled against him (e.g., Evan Longoria: .048/.091/.048 in 22 PA, Jose Bautista: .143/.250/.286 in 8 PA, Russell Martin: .000/.000/.000 in 10 PA). Plus, there is the stream of left-handed hitters who turn to mush when they step into the batters box to square off against the lanky lefty (e.g., Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner). It will be an adjustment for him, but I suspect he’ll be just fine.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done for the Red Sox and realistically only two positions (catcher, third base) will involve any sort of competition in the Spring, so the discussion of how to best align the players is worth starting. Today, the batting order. Criticizing a batting order for any one game is likely a bit much – playoffs are a different animal – but consistently using sub-optimal lineups can amount to one or two fewer wins over the course of the season. So making an effort to optimize the lineup, which is fairly simple and cheap, is a worthwhile endeavour. You, smart reader of this website, probably already know all this, but I felt the need to further justify discussing the batting order in January. In any case, the batting order comes up because Red Sox manager John Farrell recently discussed it.

In an interview on WEEI, Farrell said that he is considering Andrew Benintendi for the number two spot in the lineup. That seems like a dramatic move for a player who started last year in Double-A. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examined this idea, outlining how Benintendi’s skillset would work at the top of the order and how having him there would break up the four right-handed batters (i.e., Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez) that are likely to be at the top.

I like the idea of having Benintendi at the top of the order for the reasons MacPherson cites in his article, but I would not hit him second. I would drop him one spot to hit him third. Specifically, here is how I would write out the lineups:

Having Benintendi hit third rather than second may seem minor, but it keeps Betts, the team’s best hitter, in the all-important second spot, splits the right-handed hitters at the top of the order evenly, and prevents overloading things with left-handed hitters in the six through nine spots.

There are two other aspects worth noting about these suggested lineups. First, Pablo Sandoval is considered a switch-hitter, even though that aspect of his game is not necessarily known at this point. His ability to hit right-handed means that hitting him between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mitch Moreland avoids having back-to-back lefties, thereby making life a little more difficult for opposing managers who want to matchup relievers later in the game. Second, if/when Blake Swihart assumes the primary catching duties, I would slot him into the nine spot currently occupied by Sandy Leon, but I can see the case for flipping him with Sandoval if his offense takes off the way some people think it will.

Ok. I suspect that’s enough lineup talk for now.

Quick Hits

In some respects this offseason has been strange. The most prominent example of this is the number of sluggers who remain unsigned (e.g., Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter) and how the market for those who have signed(e.g., Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista) collapsed. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more on how the league is valuing sluggers differently than they have in the past. The availability of these offensive threats has Brian MacPherson wondering if the Red Sox moved too quickly in acquiring Mitch Moreland. Perhaps, but I think the team’s desire to get under the luxury tax threshold ruled out all of the marquee names.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox have six candidates for the five starting rotation spots. Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello will certainly hold three of the five spots. The last two are available for Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright to take. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Dave Dombroski suggested that Wright and Pomeranz have the inside line. Nick Friar of CSNNE.com examines each possible pairing for the remaining spots and suggests that Dombrowski’s preference is not the best option. Who knows how strongly Dombrowski feels that the spots are Wright and Pomeranz’s to lose. Maybe this was just an old-school-tactic of using the media to try and light a fire under Rodriguez.

While questions remain in the rotation, the starting lineups are pretty much set – well, maybe not at catcher. At MLB.com, Ian Browne has been writing an Around the Horn series that looks at each area of the Red Sox. He started with the relatively unclear status of the catching position, then moved onto the corner infield spots and middle infielders, and finally the Baby Bs in the outfield. The series is definitely worth checking out.

An aspect of the Red Sox organization that likely helped their young core transition to the major league level is the Rookie Development Program that they run. This program is intended to familiarize players expected to reach the big leagues in the near future (~18 months) with members of the front office, the Red Sox coaching staff, and the city of Boston. Alex Speier has details on the eight players invited to the program this year, which includes Rafael Devers, Sam Travis and a bunch of relievers.

Speaking of development, Rusney Castillo – remember him? – is still in the organization and, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, might be back in the mix. This suggestion comes as a result of Castillo’s strong performance with Alex Cora’s team in the Puerto Rico Winter League. While the outfielders at the big league level are established, a solid Spring Training could earn Castillo an opportunity to start in Pawtucket and/or pique the interest of another organization.

Much has been written about the overhauling of the Red Sox bullpen. Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler are gone. Tyler Thornburg has been added and Joe Kelly has permanently shifted his focus to life as a reliever. Another player who many, including myself, are counting on to provide strong innings out of the bullpen is Carson Smith. Smith is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and as such is not expected to be back with the Red Sox before mid-season. But, as Matt Collins, managing editor (congratulations, Matt!) of Over the Monster, reminds us, coming back from Tommy John surgery is no guarantee. Ideally Smith is more Nate Jones than Bobby Parnell.

Finally, do you want to know what baseball-analytics-legend and Red Sox Senior Advisor Bill James thinks of the 2017 team? Last week he talked to Brian Kenny on MLB Now about that very thing, check out their discussion here.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

After yesterday’s trade of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox appear to be left with six viable candidates for the five starting rotation spots: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright. Those first three are locks to be in the major league rotation, Rodriguez will be in a rotation, whether Boston or Pawtucket remains to be seen, and the last two have potential as bullpen options or even trade pieces; although after the Buchholz trade I don’t think they will be trading any more of these guys. Pomeranz is reportedly a target of the Seattle Mariners and due to his clearly high upside, Rodriguez would likely bring a substantial return, but these guys will be in-house projects for the foreseeable future. At MLB.com, Ian Browne weighed the pros and cons of keeping and trading each of Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright and Buchholz. Browne’s case for dealing Buchholz was largely the salary related advantages, which appears to have been the factor that made it happen.

While there were certainly positive aspects of trading one or more of these guys, I think the best move was to hold onto the depth – at least for now. It would take some juggling, as only Rodriguez has options remaining, but seasons tend to present circumstances that require having more than five (or even six) major league caliber starters. Brian Johnson, who will likely start the year at Pawtucket, is another player who is looking to join the major league rotation, but he is working his way back from issues related to anxiety and there remain questions about the health of his elbow. The other options at Pawtucket are Henry Owens and Roenis Elias, but neither has shown the consistent effectiveness required to engender confidence in them. So keeping the depth would have proven useful, and if not, one or two of these players (even Buchholz) could be dealt in the Spring, or even in-season to improve the club in other areas. I don’t understand the rush to get it done now.

Behind the starting rotation, the Red Sox’s bullpen will look quite different from what it did in 2016 and previous years. Koji Uehara, who Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wants us to remember was so important to the team over the last four seasons, is now a Cub, and Junichi Tazawa signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins a day before short-lived, but really effective, Red Sox Brad Ziegler did. That means the bulk of the 2016 high-leverage relief group is gone. Craig Kimbrel is still lurking at the end of games, but the path to him will be different. For 2017, the high-leverage group in front of Kimbrel will feature newly acquired Tyler Thornburg, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and eventually Carson Smith. The rest of the bullpen will be a flexible group: one (or more) of the guys that does not get a spot in the rotation, Heath Hembree (as a righty-specialist, now saved from being DFAd by the Buchholz trade), Fernando Abad (as a lefty-specialist), and Robbie Ross Jr. (as a multi-use guy). Peter Abraham has more on the depth the Red Sox have built in the relief corps. All in all the bullpen looks, at least on digital-paper, to be a strength of the team.

Quick Hits

As the Red Sox consider trading from their starting pitching depth and how such trades could impact the final form of the bullpen, they should keep in mind the trickle-down effect that Chris Sale will have on the pitching staff. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that with the acquisition of Sale, the Red Sox now have three of the 15 pitchers who threw 200+ innings in 2016. That sort of length from the rotation should make John Farrell’s bullpen decisions easier.

Adding Sale to the rotation makes it stronger than it was in 2016, however there are concerns about it being too left-handed (Sale, Price, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz). This could be especially problematic for the Red Sox given their home park, which tends to be unfriendly to lefty pitchers. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal digs into the numbers, specifically those of current (and potential) AL East foes. It could be a unique Red Sox rotation in terms of handedness, but two of the four (Sale and Price), have shown they can consistently get anybody out, so things should be fine.

Blake Swihart’s top-prospect status and bumps in the development path have kept him in the forefront of trade rumours. Being a top-prospect means other teams want him, and the bumps in development suggest the Red Sox would be willing to part with him. But Peter Gammons reported that Dave Dombrowski refused to include Swihart in any deal. At MassLive.com, Christopher Smith details how Swihart’s age, performance at the plate in the second half of 2015, and uncertainty surrounding Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, likely contributed to Dombrowski’s reluctance to trade Swihart.

In 2016, as the Red Sox fought to win the division they relied on a rookie, Andrew Benintendi, in left field. This led Christopher Smith to wonder if a similar situation will happen in 2017 with first baseman Sam Travis. Travis is returning from an ACL tear but if he gets back on the track he was on before the injury, it is reasonable that he could make his major league debut this summer. As Smith notes, Travis could platoon with Mitch Moreland at first base and push Hanley Ramirez to full time DH duties. There are many moving parts to this and a lot has to break right for it to happen, but it is an interesting idea nonetheless.

Speaking of Hanley, Ian Browne has a nice article detailing how the slugger is excited for the 2017 season and looking forward to taking over the DH role from his buddy, David Ortiz. Hanley is so much fun, especially when things are going well for him on the field, so here’s hoping he builds on his strong 2016 season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox are in good standing within the American League East; Baseball Prospectus has their probability of winning the division at 94.6%. So it is a pretty safe bet they will be playing in one of the two AL Division Series which means we can start considering how to align the starting rotation for that series. Given that the series is only five games played over seven nights, a rotation of three guys will work. David Price pitches Games 1 and 4,* while Rick Porcello throws Games 2 and 5 (or reverse those two names). So who throws Game 3? The candidates are Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz. Two lefties and a righty. Here are their likely opponents wRC+ splits:

Man, it would be nice to play that luck-filled, below average Rangers’ offense. Other than the Rangers and Blue Jays, it appears as though the best option is to use one of the two lefty options – this is especially true if the Orioles are the opponent. While Pomeranz (3.40 ERA, 3.25 DRA) has had a better season than Rodriguez (4.84 ERA, 5.96 DRA), he has struggled lately, which Ian Browne of MLB.com suggests is due to fatigue. With this considered, perhaps riding the recently effective (and not fatigued) Rodriguez (3.18 ERA, 17/5 K/BB in September) is the better course of action.

Using Rodriguez in the rotation for the ALDS moves Pomeranz and Buchholz to the bullpen to relieve and wait for a chance to start in the ALCS should the team get that far. Buchholz has been shuffled all over the place this season and was all but written off around the trade deadline. Since then he has relieved and started effectively, and looks ahead to an opportunity to be relied upon to close out a division championship and take the ball in a potentially pivotal ALCS game. He recently spoke with David Laurila of FanGraphs about this issue as part of larger discussion on the need to be constantly adjusting over his career.

The pitching will garner a lot of our attention (for example, I just broke down the splits of potential opponents to determine the rotation two weeks ahead of that being necessary) and will likely be blamed for any team flameout. But really if the Red Sox are going to make a deep run in the playoffs this year their offense will need to carry them.

An important part of that Red Sox offense is Hanley Ramirez, who, in 2016, has emerged as the force that we expected when he signed with the team prior to last season. In the last 30 days, Hanley has been a man on fire, posting a .340/.405/.728 slashline with 12 home runs. On the season his line is up to .293/.363/.515 (.281 TAv, 129 wRC+). To put that in a perspective relevant to Red Sox fans: in 2015 his on-base percentage was .291, two points worse than his current batting average. Simply put, Hanley has been a force in the middle of the order. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more details on Hanley’s one-year transformation from a relatively easy out with little power, to a difficult out with frightening power.

Stories of positive clubhouse chemistry and player character tend to go hand-in-hand with a team’s results. When a team is winning, they have a strong chemistry. When a player is performing well, they are engaged and a leader in the clubhouse. Which thing comes first – winning or chemistry/character/leadership – remains to be demonstrated cleanly, so reading too much into these common narratives should be done with caution. Hanley Ramirez is often a strong example of this sort of story. When things are good, Hanley is a leader who has put his malcontent ways behind him (example, another example). So perhaps Michael Silverman’s article in the Boston Herald suggesting that Hanley has taken a leadership role on the 2016 Red Sox should not be surprising given Hanley’s (and the team’s) performance this year. Regardless of if Hanley’s clubhouse approach changed before the season or once things started rolling well for him, his presence as a veteran is an interesting, albeit peripheral, aspect to consider, especially given the article’s focus on his relationship with Yoan Moncada. Ideally Hanley just keeps hitting rockets all over the field and is, in turn, a positive influence on the younger players for the remainder of his Red Sox tenure.

Quick Hits

Much like Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello was a much maligned aspect of the 2015 Red Sox. His contract extension was questioned and likely contributed to Ben Cherington’s ouster. But this year Porcello is demonstrating his worth. His ERA is down almost two runs (4.92 to 3.08), with corresponding drops in FIP (4.13 to 3.44) and DRA (4.14 to 3.44). In light of Porcello’s 2016 performance, Alex Speier wonders what Porcello would be worth if he hit the free agent market now. All things considered, it now seems reasonable to view the extension Porcello signed with the Red Sox as a bargain. What a difference a year can make.

There was a time in the not too distant past that the Red Sox’s bullpen looked as though it would be the team’s undoing. However, lately that outlook has changed entirely and now the ‘pen appears to be a strength. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive notes that the relief group is rested and deep and ready for a postseason run. Tim Britton of The Providence Journal outlines a similar sentiment and suggests that the key to the bullpen’s about-face might be the return of Koji Uehara, who has resumed his eighth inning role with great success. What a difference a few weeks can make.

The Red Sox have players in the mix in a few of the end-of-year award categories, the foremost being American League MVP. While Mike Trout leads the universe in all forms of wins-above-replacement, voters will not necessarily perform a sort-by-WAR before filling out their MVP ballots. This means Mookie Betts, who has the second most WAR in the AL according to all three major forms of the measurement, has a chance to win. He is on a winning team, has 200+ hits, has 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, etc.. Yet, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests that Mookie may not even be the clear choice for the award on the Red Sox, as David Ortiz’s incredible final season deserves recognition.

Let’s take another moment to appreciate David Ortiz. Through Tuesday’s games here are Big Papi’s 2016 numbers and where they rank all-time among seasons by a 40+ year old (courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

He is putting on an awesome show. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald recaps Ortiz’s recent meeting with the media in which he reflected on his career, his teammates, the 2016 Red Sox’s playoff chances, and the the possibility of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

A significant part of Mookie Betts’ MVP resume is his stellar defense in right field. A month ago in this Read Sox series I detailed how important the improved Red Sox defense has been to their success this season, specifically highlighting stories on Mookie’s arm. This time around we can appreciate his range. Deesha Thosar at MLB.com examines, with the help of Statcast, two awesome catches that Mookie made against the Yankees.

The Red Sox’s lone trade deadline acquisition was LOOGY Fernando Abad but he has been… well you’ve probably seen Ben Carsley’s article on the foreshadowing that exists in reliever last names. Abad’s performance has left open the role of LOOGY and 27-year old Robby Scott has made the most of his opportunities to assume it. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald outlines Scott’s long road to the major leagues and appreciation of all that came along the way. Scott has an excellent chance to add to his story with some high leverage moments in the postseason.

Three Good Game Stories

On Tuesday night, Eduardo Rodriguez was good-Eduardo and the offense managed to get things going off Kevin Gausman in a way they were unable to a week ago. The win made it six straight for the Sox and pushed their division lead over the O’s to five games with 11 to play. In his game story, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes that Rodriguez made a strong case to be the No. 3 starter for the team going forward. Hopefully he carries Tuesday’s result into his next start.

On Sunday, the Red Sox effectively ended the Yankees’ chances at a playoff spot this season, as they finished off the four-game series sweep. It was the first time the Red Sox swept a four-game series against the Yankees since 1990. Chris Mason of the Boston Herald has more on the hero of the night, Hanley Ramirez, who hit two home runs and earned a curtain call from the Fenway faithful.

Last Thursday the Red Sox got arguably their best win of the season when they rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Yankees. Hanley Ramirez was the hero again, sending a 99mph Dellin Betances fastball to the moon for a walk-off homer. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe details how exciting the win was for the young players on the team who are experiencing a playoff run for the first time in their careers.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Sounds awful? Excellent. Let’s dig in! We’ll lay out this list of every starter the Red Sox used this season and now Spin! Oh, I’m sorry, you got Roenis Elias. Hope you enjoyed your season!

The silly thing is Boston wasn’t really ever that far from something that disastrous. The Red Sox offense, yesterday notwithstanding, has been lapping the field, enough to keep the team in playoff contention despite less-than-stellar starters for most of the season. There was Ellias and his reversed strikeout-to-walk ratio, Sean O’Sullivan and the imaginary leprechaun outfit he always wore in my head, Joe Kelly and his [finger quotes] great stuff.

Every team has sixth, seventh and eighth starters who match those descriptions. But the Red Sox’s problem wasn’t Kelly, or O’Sullivan; it was the guys in front of them who were pitching like Kelly and O’Sullivan. Clay Buchholz was expected to be the number two, but was so atrocious he was kicked out of the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez was supposed to be the future number two, but got hurt and was so bad when he returned that he was sent to the minors. Heck, David Price didn’t post a sub-4.00 ERA in any month of the season until July! The rotation, which was supposed to be, if not a strength, then not a weakness, reached a point where Boston was depending on the Kelly’s and O’Sullivans of the world just to make it through the week.

Through the first half of the season, Red Sox starters posted a 4.72 ERA collectively, and it would have been much worse if Steven Wright hadn’t stepped into the rotation and saved everyone’s bacon as much as one starter can. He’s a bacon saver, that Steven Wright!

Maybe the strangest thing about the baseball season is how things change. We never seem to see it coming either. One month the rotation is just terrible, the next it’s the strength of the team. Happens every year.

Look at last season’s Tigers. They put up the second best OPS by any team in baseball in the first half. Well, they have a good offense so wipe your hands and move on, right? No, because they’re an example, so you know there’s a catch. Here it is: They fell apart in the second half, putting up the 20th best OPS in baseball. Yes, OPS isn’t a great stat, I know, I know, but it proves the overall point, which is, things change. The Tigers offense was good. Then it wasn’t. These things happen over the course of the summer, and often we don’t see them coming.

That happened this year to your Red Sox. In fact, it happened just this past month. Red Sox starters put up the 11th worst ERA in baseball in the first half of this season. In the second half? They’re fourth best in baseball. Crazy, right? It is! Consider all these things:

1. David Price’s pitching has started to reflect the peripheral stats we’ve been talking about here at BP Boston since the beginning of the season. The strange thing is, Price’s peripherals in the second half of the season look like they belong to the ERA he posted in the first half! Is he pitching better now? Yes? Maybe? No?

2. Eduardo Rodriguez couldn’t get an out. He gave up nine runs to the Rays in 2.2 innings! Since coming back from the minors, he’s given up, in order, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1 and zero runs.

3. Clay Buchholz was in the same boat. He’d start pitching, and the ball would just get crushed. Now he can get major league pitchers out. What? How?

4. They added Drew Pomerantz and other than his first start, he’s been excellent.

I don’t want to throw a bunch of exclamation points and question marks at you, drop hashtag #analysis at your feet, and then go home, but small bits of baseball can be impossible to use to analyze future events. David Price wasn’t good for two months, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be bad the two months after that. It also doesn’t mean he won’t either.

There are always reasons behind things, reasons that explain why something happened. Maybe Price mislocated that crucial fastball with men on base, or Eddie hung a slider. The question isn’t “How did that happen?”, but “What does it tell us about the future?” It’s that question that can be almost impossible to answer.

At the start of the season the Red Sox were penciling in Price to start Game 1 in the playoffs. At the end of May, had the playoffs begun then, most fans (and I suspect some portion of the Red Sox themselves) would’ve started Steven Wright. Now, after his continued brilliance and in defiance of statements made to the contrary a year ago, many Sox fans would likely opt for Rick Porcello for Game 1. But after eight shutout innings against the Rays during his last start, maybe many would switch to David Price. We are back where we started.

Except we aren’t. The Red Sox began the season with a number of question marks in the rotation, from Buchholz to Rodriguez, Kelly to Porcello. Those questions have been answered. Porcello has been fantastic. Kelly is not only out of the rotation, he’s out of the majors. Buchholz and Rodriguez have held up the back end of the rotation, for now at least, and Wright is returning from the DL to give the pitching staff a boost.

To paraphrase a famous quotation, the Red Sox are who we thought they were. We thought we knew their rotation. It consisted of an ace, a strong number two, and some up-and-comers towards the back end. That’s what they have now. The names are different, but come playoff time, whether it’s Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, or even Buchholz, the Red Sox have a strong group of starters waiting. Sure, it didn’t happen the way we all thought it would, but then that almost never happens. After all, this is baseball.

Going Deep

Through Tuesday’s games the Red Sox’s offense is still the best run-scoring group in baseball. Alas, the thing that has held the Sox from performing at a Cubs-like level is their run prevention. Beyond David Price and breakout star Steven Wright, the starting rotation is a bit of a mess. That is probably too harsh an assessment of Rick Porcello, as his ERA, cFIP and DRA are all below league average and, as Christopher Smith of MassLive.com notes, through 14 starts Porcello has been much better this year than he was last year.

After Porcello is the morass of Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens and Roenis Elias. Rodriguez has made four starts since returning from the disabled list and only one of them was good. In his Red Sox notebook, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that the organization has told Rodriguez that his time in the big league rotation is running out. If Rodriguez needs more time at Triple-A to get his mechanics and focus sorted out that is fine. But the question then becomes: who replaces Rodriguez? The fifth spot is already being used as an open tryout from week-to-week with no one doing much to show they should hold the job.

After five good outings in relief, Buchholz got another chance to start on Tuesday night against the White Sox. His first pitch was hit for a home run, his second pitch was hit for a double, and his third pitch, a ball, received cheers from the home crowd. He settled in for five innings, but allowed another home run and did not exactly instill confidence that he can be effective going forward. Buchholz spoke with Alex Speier of The Boston Globe about the difficulties of his 2016 season thus far. Buchholz seems to endlessly be the guy with all kinds of potential who can’t put it together for long periods.

Given that none of Owens, Kelly and Elias are likely to solve the rotation’s current woes, the fix will need to come from outside the organization. With the non-waiver trade deadline a little over a month away it is worth thinking about what the Red Sox will (or should) do to improve the club. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald suggests a number of players for whom the Red Sox should consider trading and does not shy away from big names. Jose Fernandez, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and Sonny Gray are examples. To me, Cole and Sale are unlikely to get moved this season, but Fernandez or Gray could be had, albeit at a steep cost in prospects. Despite the cost, at Over the Monster, Marc Normandin reminds us that the Red Sox are going to move some of their prospects eventually as that is part of what prospects are for: chips to fill holes on the major league team. That, and some of the emerging players at the lower levels are blocked by someone on the major league team. The counter point to this idea is given by Bill Ballou at The Providence Journal, who used the organization’s history in trade deadline deals for pitching as a cautionary tale.

Regardless of your thoughts on which prospects should be moved (if at all), there are clear holes to fill: starter, reliever, left fielder, left-handed bench bat. With the Red Sox in contention this season, the next month of trade rumors and proposals should be more fun than it was in the last two seasons when the team was on the selling side of things.

Quick Hits

Steven Wright, a bright spot in the aforementioned struggling rotation, continued his impressive season on Monday night, throwing nine innings of one run ball, lowering his RA9 to 2.84. Wright spoke with the Boston Herald’s Evan Drellich to give an inside look at how he remains a calm, relaxed presence on the team. The story contains interesting insights into Wright’s development as a baseball player, and also how turning to Christianity helped mature his outlook on life.

Rusney Castillo was outrighted off the 40-man roster on Monday, as his continued ineptitude with the bat makes him useless to the major league team. In the Providence Journal, Tim Britton writes that while this move could be read as an effort to correct Castillo’s issues, it is more likely that he is not part of the team’s future plans. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe has more on Castillo’s demotion, focusing on what has turned out to be a disastrous contract.

When David Ortiz announced he would be retiring after the 2016 season I thought it was a curious decision. After seeing other players go through the year-long goodbye party he must have known how making the announcement would change, at the very least, his media commitments for the season. Well, he apparently underestimated the extent of the change and as a result regrets the decision. In an interview with Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes, Ortiz talked about how there are too many people to whom he needs to pay attention and how the demands on his time are affecting his ability to prepare for games. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, despite his stellar performance thus far, Ortiz is not changing his mind about retiring. He says the daily grind and pain are too much to go through for another year.

While one man’s Red Sox career is coming to an end, another’s is progressing. This past weekend, the organization promoted top-prospect Yoan Moncada from High-A Salem to Double-A Portland. At Bleacher Report, Bill Speros has a great profile of Moncada and the hype that has followed him since he was signed. The hype will only increase with this promotion. For more on what led the Red Sox to promote Moncada up to Portland, check out Alex Speier’s article outlining the baseball/organization perspective on the move in The Boston Globe.

Three Good Game Stories

Monday night’s series opening game against the White Sox was there for the Red Sox taking in the bottom of the ninth, but after loading the bases with nobody out they failed to score. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald has more on the Red Sox failure in the big moment.

On Father’s Day the Red Sox beat the Seattle Mariners behind another great start from David Price. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com details the game and how in Price’s last eight starts he has been pitching like the dominant starter for whom the Red Sox paid.

In his coverage of Saturday’s win for WEEI.com, John Tomase noted that Rick Porcello managed his way in-and-out of trouble, ultimately providing a much-needed solid outing from a starter not named David Price or Steven Wright. In support of Porcello, the Sox’s offense scored 6 runs with Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. going yard.

Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

That last part is the most important going forward, though, as the offense can’t be expected to keep up a record-setting pace for the entire season. All year, there has been at least one questionable rotation spot. First, it was filled by Joe Kelly. Then, by Henry Owens. Now, it’s temporarily being filled by Sean O’Sullivan. Obviously, none of those scenarios are anything close to ideal.

Luckily, there are reinforcements on the way. Or, more specifically, there is a reinforcement on the way in the form of Eduardo Rodriguez. There is no official word on when he’ll return, but the southpaw’s made three rehab starts and should be back soon. In fact, he could be back as soon as this weekend’s series against the Astros.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that the results in his rehab starts haven’t been great, and his velocity has been a bit down. With that being said, he’s getting the work he needs, and he only has so much time to work in Triple-A. When he’s right, Rodriguez is one of the more exciting players in the organization, so people are understandably anxious for him to take the mound again. The bad part of these situations is that expectations can spiral out of control. So, with that in mind, let’s try to figure out exactly what the Red Sox can plan on getting from Rodriguez whenever he gets back to the majors.

When he’s right, Rodriguez is one of the more exciting players in the organization, so people are understandably anxious for him to take the mound again.

Obviously, the best place to start in this discussion is by looking at his numbers last year. Rodriguez was solid in his first major-league season, putting up a 3.85 ERA, a 3.89 FIP, an 89 cFIP and a 3.98 DRA. Essentially, he was a league-average pitcher. That doesn’t sound too exciting, but it’s a good foundation for a 22-year-old with no prior big-league experience to build upon. Plus, the predictive cFIP likes him, so that’s a nice added bonus.

Looking a bit deeper, he was just as average with regards to strikeouts, walks and quality of contact. Starting with the Ks, he ended up setting down 7.2 batters per nine innings in 2015. For reference, the league-average starting pitcher struck out 7.8 batters per nine. Rodriguez built most of his strikeout pedigree on hitting the zone rather than blowing batters away, despite carrying a fastball that sat in the mid-90s. At the end of the year, he ranked just 94th among the 113 pitchers who threw at least 2000 pitches in swinging-strike rate. On the flip side, he ranked 26th in zone rate.

However, it’s unclear how sustainable that kind of performance is given his simply average rate of getting batters to look at strikes, per Baseball-Reference. So, right away we have something to look for. Either he needs to be more deceptive with his pitches in the zone, or he needs to induce more swinging strikes if he’s going to maintain a solid strikeout rate.

The biggest key here for Rodriguez is his slider. While he typically leans on his fastball, he needs his breaking ball to work to maximize his performance. In 2015, the pitch lost its effectiveness as the year went on. After a strong first month or so, batters stopped getting fooled by the pitch, swinging against it fewer than 50 percent of the time.

In turn, the whiffs stopped coming, too.

If Rodriguez is going to increase his strikeouts, keeping a sharp slider in his arsenal all season will likely be the key.

Of course, he can survive with that kind of strikeout rate as long as the control is there. Last year, he was fine, walking 2.7 batters per nine compared to a league-average of 2.9. Ideally, if he’s going to carry a league-average strikeout rate, one would like to see Rodriguez improve his walk rate. As I previously mentioned he hit the zone plenty to be effective. The issue is getting more whiffs on the pitches that he does miss on. Last year, he wasn’t able to do that as he ranked 90th out of that same group of 113 pitchers in swing rate on pitches out of the zone. Again, this goes back to his slider, which theoretically would be the pitch he’d get the most chases on.

Finally, Rodriguez was hit mildly hard last year, allowing a home run every nine innings. There is no single pitch that was the main culprit, as he was squared up on all three of his main pitches. To put a number on it, Brooks Baseball has each of his three pitches allowing line drives on at least a quarter of their batted balls. Looking at his zone profile, the issue is pretty clear: He left too many pitches belt-high in the zone.

To make matters worse, we get back to his inability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. As you can see in the swing chart below, batters were rarely fooled and only swung at the pitches that stayed in the zone.

All of this indicates that, while getting Rodriguez back in the rotation is a big boost, maybe we should temper our initial expectations a bit. Just based on last season, he has a lot he needs to improve on before taking the next step. While it’s not quite as simple as a one-off solution, it all boils down to being more deceptive and getting more chases outside the zone. Essentially, it all comes down to getting more consistency from his slider.

On top of those issues, we’re talking about a pitcher who missed all of spring training, so it’s only natural to expect some rust. Luckily, with Price and Porcello, the Red Sox aren’t desperate for a top-of-the-rotation arm. In fact, as long as Steven Wright is pitching like he is, they can settle for a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Rodriguez should at least fill that role while he gets his feet wet in his return to the majors. I’d expect the results to get better as the year goes on, but for now I wouldn’t expect an ace-like performance from the young left-hander. There’s too much improvement to be made upon last season to expect it all at once, especially for a pitcher who has missed so much time to start the year.

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images