This week, however, might be an exception for the Red Sox.

The Sox are coming off a 4-2 homestand rectified by a sweep of the Diamondbacks and clinging to the second Wild Card spot with the Tigers, Mariners and Astros all breathing down their necks. Their rotation has gone from dreadful to mostly competent. The offense has gone from historically elite to pretty good (with the exception of Sunday’s blowout win). Their bullpen, well, see the recap of Wednesday’s game for more on that disaster. The Red Sox haven’t consistently looked like a playoff-caliber team since mid July, but even that success was minimal. One might argue they haven’t played like a contender since May.

That brings us to this week. This is the biggest week of the season thus far; the one we might look back on Oct. 1 and view as the make-or-break point of the summer. The optimist would view this as an opportunity. A good showing and the Sox can solidify their spot in the Wild Card. That means a chance to not only play in the single-elimination postseason round but perhaps host it.

The pessimist would view this as the beginning of the end for the 2016 Red Sox. Combine the Sox’s recent performance with the quality of opponents over an 11-game road trip, and you have a team that could spoil their playoff chances in seven days.

Let’s instead look at this week from a more moderate, realistic viewpoint. It starts with a makeup game in Cleveland against the Indians Monday afternoon, then it’s off to Baltimore, which owns the top Wild Card spot, for a pair of games and then Detroit for a massive four-game showdown against the Tigers. The Red Sox will still have another seven games with the O’s later this season, but this is the final matchup with the Tigers and the club’s last series against a contending team until Sept. 9.

How the playoff picture looks come Sunday may tell us what to expect come October.

The Sox have an ideal matchup against the Indians, who send Josh Tomlin to the mound against Drew Pomeranz. As average as Pomeranz has been since the trade to Boston, Tomlin has been a disaster, allowing seven earned runs in each of his last two outings. The Sox are 3-2 against the Indians this season.

There’s some good news and bad news pertaining the rest of the week. The numbers show the Red Sox have been better than the Tigers and Orioles throughout the season, and both teams have struggled of late. However, the Sox haven’t fared well against either opponent this year.

The Orioles surrendered their AL East lead to the Blue Jays last week and have dropped six of their last 10 contests. Baltimore has sat in first place for most of the season, but with the third-best run differential in the division, some of that may have been dumb luck. In other words, Baltimore hasn’t been as good as its record suggests. Just look at how their numbers compare to the Red Sox, who’ve been treading water for the bulk of two and a half months now.

Baltimore’s success has come behind its power and bullpen. One could argue the Red Sox are just as good, if not better, than the O’s despite what the standings show. However, Baltimore has had the better of the matchups, going 6-4 against the Sox this season. The Orioles also send their No. 1, Chris Tillman, in the series finale to take on the ever-unpredictable David Price. Tillman allowed one run over seven innings in his lone start against the Red Sox on June 14 and has had arguably his strongest season since his All-Star campaign in 2013. Tuesday’s starter, Yovani Gallardo, struggled in his lone start against the Red Sox in April but has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings.

Those two games are important, but the four games in Detroit are even bigger. The Red Sox were swept in their lone meeting against the Tigers two weeks ago, but Detroit was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak that propelled them into the Wild Card race at the time.

Are the Tigers really a playoff team, or an average team in the thick of it thanks to one hot streak? Here’s what the numbers say:

Statistically speaking, there’s little debate that the Red Sox are better than the Tigers, who suffered a five-game losing streak last week, but, as we learned recently against the Yankees, that says little about what to expect in this series. Regardless, this is a big one. A strong showing could separate the Sox from the Tigers, and a poor showing could do the opposite, harming Boston’s postseason chances. Or they could split the series and nothing will really change.

Anyway, here’s what we can expect. Thursday’s series opener ultimately hinges on what the Red Sox can squeeze out of Clay Buchholz for the second straight outing, as he starts in place of the injured Steven Wright. While Buchholz gave Boston enough to nab a win Saturday against the D-backs, it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll perform in Detroit.

The most intriguing matchup of the series comes Friday between Rick Porcello and Michael Fulmer. Porcello has been a legitimate No. 1 for the Sox this season, while Fulmer’s rookie campain has been nothing short of impressive, with the right-hander posting a 3.17 DRA in 2016. Both pitchers use a primarily four-seamer/sinker mix that’s dependent on weak contact rather than blowing hitters away. Perhaps that means a nice, fast-paced game as well.

From there it’s Pomeranz and Daniel Norris, who has made just four starts this season, in a battle of mediocre pitchers. Then there’s the finale between Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Verlander. Rodriguez allowed one run over seven innings against the Yankees last week, looking more like the pitcher Sox fans fell in love with last season. Meanwhile, Verlander has been in vintage form of late with a 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts.

Ultimately, this week won’t determine where the Red Sox wind up at the end of the season, but it should give us a good idea of what to expect the rest of the way. They’re capable of success against both teams, but past matchups and recent performance tells us that may not happen. But this is the story of the 2016 Red Sox, who have ridden a roller coaster of promise and disappointment again and again.

If we’re being realistic, there’s nothing wrong with settling for a .500 week, or 4-3 if you want to include the Indians game. That should keep the Red Sox in a playoff spot, or at least within a game of it, before a stretch that includes two series against the Rays and one against both the A’s and Padres. But those games won’t tell us about this team quite like this week’s. This is a stretch where the Red Sox could prove themselves worthy of our trust, and worthy of true playoff consideration once we reach the middle of September.

Photo by Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports Images

The good times were short-lived. The Red Sox fell out of first after splitting the series with the Twins. They then got swept by the Tigers and went 5-6 on their 11-game west coast trip. Wednesday’s loss to the Mariners, exactly two weeks after reclaiming the division lead, left them out of a playoff spot for the first time since April 25.

Now the Red Sox are in the midst of a Wild Card race that’s set to come down to the finish. The Blue Jays and Orioles are tight in the race for the East, while the Tigers and Indians could go back and forth in the Central over the next two months. Meanwhile, there are the Red Sox, who sit a half game behind the Tigers for the second Wild Card spot. The Mariners (3.5 games) and Astros (four games) aren’t too far behind either.

The Red Sox are in a wild chase (no pun intended) for their first postseason berth since 2013. But just how well do they stack up with the teams they’re competing with over the final eight weeks of the season? Let’s look at the good, bad and what lies ahead for some of those teams (sorry, Houston and Seattle).

Red Sox (60-50)

The good: This is obvious for those of us who have followed the team all season. The offense is among the best in the majors, scoring the most runs in baseball and owning the sixth-best TAv (second in the AL). The bulk of their lineup sits in the positive BWARP category, while Mookie Betts (5.0 BWARP) is in the AL MVP discussion. Although the Red Sox’s pitching has been its downfall (more on that below), Rick Porcello (3.33 DRA, 3.74 FIP) continues to be a steady force while David Price finally looks like the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting when they signed him in the offseason. Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel’s return gives Boston the late-game stability it was lacking early on in this rut.

The bad: The Red Sox still haven’t gotten the consistent pitching they need in order to make a legitimate postseason run. They rank 15th in DRA, 12th in cFIP and 16th in ERA. Price’s resurgence has improved that ranking while Eduardo Rodriguez has been better recently, but Steven Wright has proven unpredictable of late and Drew Pomeranz’s Red Sox tenure has been underwhelming at best. Meanwhile, the bullpen has handed the Red Sox frustrating losses in the past two and a half weeks, as the likes of Brad Ziegler — who, in all fairness, has been good overall — Fernando Abad and Robbie Ross can attest to. That probably contributes to their 13-14 record in one-run games. And just how long can the Bryce Brentz/Andrew Benintendi combination work in left field?

What lies ahead: It doesn’t get any easier. The Red Sox have another 11-game road trip after this week’s short homestand. That’s part of a string of 29 of the Sox’s final 52 games coming away from Fenway. Fifteen of those final 52 games come against the Orioles and Blue Jays. That’s good and bad. The good news is that means ample opportunity to gain ground in the playoff race. But that also means some tough tests to close out the season.

Orioles (63-47, lead AL East)

The good: Offensively, the O’s are just as dangerous as the Red Sox. They lead the majors in home runs (163), with four players at the 20-homer mark, and are third in ISO (.184). They have baseball’s home run leader in Mark Trumbo and a possible MVP candidate in Manny Machado (4.45 BWARP). Although win-loss records mean next to nothing for pitchers, the O’s have consistently won with their ace, Chris Tillman, on the mound, which the Sox have yet to prove they can do. They also have the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball thanks to the likes of Zach Britton (1.85 FIP) and Brad Brach (2.46).

The bad: Baltimore actually has a worse starter’s ERA than the Red Sox at 4.91. That’s because the O’s lack depth behind Tillman. Kevin Gausman has a decent 3.79 DRA and 4.35 FIP, but the dropoff from there is significant. It’s bad enough to the point that the O’s traded for Wade Miley at the deadline. Key positional players Hyun-Soo Kim and Matt Wieters have also battled injuries. As Matt Kory pointed out last week, Baltimore’s run differential (+30) is more than half of both the Red Sox and Blue Jays. In theory, if those margins more accurately reflect themselves in the standings, that could mean trouble for the O’s going forward.

What lies ahead: The Orioles have been as streaky as any team in the majors as of late, and how that manifests itself over the final eight weeks could drastically change the postseason picture. Their remaining schedule and more evenly split between home and road, although there are a pair of long road trips mixed in there, and plenty of matchups with the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

Blue Jays (63-49)

The good: Toronto has the fourth-best run differential in the majors and the second-best in the American League to the Red Sox. That’s a testament to having two of the best power hitters in the game in Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion and arguably the best starting rotation in the AL East. Donaldson and Encarnacion’s combined 57 homers place the Blue Jays second in the majors in both home runs (159) and ISO (.185). They also have the best starter’s ERA in the American League. Aaron Sanchez has had a breakout year with a 2.85 ERA, 3.37 DRA and 3.28 FIP, while Marco Estrada (3.78 FIP) and J.A. Happ (3.80) are having their best seasons in years.

The bad: The fact that Toronto has succeeded this much with two of their stars underperforming is impressive. However, the Blue Jays could use more from Jose Bautista and Marcus Stroman. Bautista’s .271 TAv is his lowest mark since 2009, while his 15 homers thus far is underwhelming. Stroman (3.86 DRA) is just as good for a seven-run clunker as he is for a quality start. Roberto Osuna (2.28 FIP) and Joseph Biagini (2.27) have been strong out of the bullpen, but the drop-off from there is significant as Toronto owns the 19th-ranked bullpen ERA in the majors. The Blue Jays are 13-19 in one-run games.

What lies ahead: Aside from a seven-game west coast swing against the Angels and Mariners, the Blue Jays have by far the friendliest schedule in the division to close out the season. They split the rest of their slate evenly between home and away, have a series with the Twins at the end of the month and have a combined six series between the Rays and Yankees. The addition of Francisco Liriano gives Toronto a six-man rotation going forward. Whether or not that proves effective is to be determined.

Tigers (61-50)

The good: The Tigers are arguably the hottest team on the list. Their eight-game win streak, which included a sweep of the Red Sox, propelled them into the final Wild Card spot before losing it the next night. But they still won nine of their last 10 entering Sunday. Detroit is led by a dangerous lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera (3.18 TAv), Ian Kinsler (.298), Victor Martinez (.293) and J.D. Martinez (3.16), while the rotation has been carried by the resurgence of Justin Verlander, who owns a 2.86 DRA for the season and a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts, and the emergence of rookie Michael Fulmer, who has allowed three or more runs in just two of his starts since May 15.

The bad: The rest of the pitching staff has been less than stellar. Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez have been negative PWARP players, while Jordan Zimmerman has struggled to stay healthy. Detroit also has the worst bullpen ERA (4.15) of any team mentioned in this piece, as it’s been forced to rely on Justin Wilson (2.82 DRA), Alex Wilson (4.41) and closer Francisco Rodriguez (3.01) late in games. The Tigers’ +24 run differential is also the worst of any team on this list, which suggests that their current pace will be difficult to keep up.

What lies ahead: If Detroit is to remain hot and in the thick of the postseason race, it is going to need to overcome a two-week stretch that includes a west coast trip and a series against the Red Sox at home. Being in the AL Central has its perks, however. The Tigers have 10 more games against the Twins, nine more games against the stumbling Royals and a season-ending series against the Braves. That should be enough to make them favorites for a playoff spot.

Indians (62-47, lead AL Central)

The good: The Indians have by far the best pitching of any team in the race. They may just have the best pitching in the American League. Cleveland is second in the majors in DRA, second in cFIP and eighth in ERA. They have a trio of studs in their rotation in Corey Kluber (2.64 DRA), Danny Salazar (2.73) and Carlos Carrasco (2.76), while right-hander Josh Tomlin (11-4) is tied for the best win percentage of any starting pitcher on the team. The bullpen has been solid as well, with Cody Allen and Dan Otero bold holding ERAs under 3.00 and the addition of Andrew Miller giving the Indians a legitimate closer. Cleveland also has legitimate power with the seventh best ISO in baseball and the ninth most home runs. Francisco Lindor, meanwhile, has given Xander Bogaerts a run for his money as the best hitting shortstop in the American League.

The bad: As impressive as the likes of Lindor and Jason Kipnis have been at the plate, the Indians’ offensive production has been top heavy, leaving Cleveland 12th in the majors in TAv (.269). The Indians in general haven’t been very good lately. They lost three of four to Minnesota last week and were swept by the Orioles not long before that. Salazar (8.84 ERA in his last four starts) and Carrasco (10.24 ERA in his last two starts entering Sunday) have recently had some of their worst performances of the season.

What lies ahead: Cleveland doesn’t quite have the cupcake schedule the Tigers have the rest of the way. Despite the Indians being the better team, the strength of schedule could be enough to put Detroit atop the division and Cleveland fighting for a Wild Card spot before long. The Indians have eight series remaining against teams still in the playoff race, and that doesn’t include the makeup game against the Red Sox next week. Those matchups could make or break their chances at holding the AL Central lead.

***

The Wild Card race will seemingly come down to starting pitching. All contending teams can hit – at least in the American League – but what separates teams like the Blue Jays and Indians is they also have good pitching. That alone should make them the favorites in their respective divisions going forward. The Tigers may be the least talented of the listed teams fighting for the Wild Card, but they also have by far the softest schedule remaining.

That makes the Red Sox and Orioles – at least in my opinion – most likely to be the odd team out come October. The Sox have shown their offense can only carry them so far, but the recent play of Price, Porcello and Rodriguez provide hope that things can still turn around from a pitching standpoint. You can look at Baltimore’s run differential one of two ways. Either that it’s bound to catch up with it at the end of the season, or it’s a testament to the Orioles’ elite bullpen.

Regardless, the Red Sox are in the thick of a Wild Card race against teams with similar characteristics as them that is destined to come down to the final week of the season. Their strengths stand out above the rest, but so do their flaws. How they manage those flaws (and that juggernaut of a schedule) will determine where they are come October.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox will continue playing out the string this weekend in Detroit. Over the next couple of months they are essentially holding major league tryouts for a few of the 2016 roster spots. Accordingly, a lot of the focus will be on the pitching. There is at least one spot in the rotation available, and the bullpen needs to be overhauled. Players like Steven Wright, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Matt Barnes, and Joe Kelly will all have chances to shape their 2016 fortunes over the next 50 games. On the non-pitching side of things Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. are the primary players of interest. These two need to be playing everyday, or at least four out of every five the rest of the way. This means that Alejandro De Aza will find himself on the bench more than he should given his performance, but that is necessary for the betterment of the team going forward. I would also consider giving Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz plenty of days off through September in order to avoid adding more miles to their legs and to spare them from any injury that could arise. I recognize that these decisions are more difficult than I am making them out to be, especially with established veteran players like Hanley and Ortiz, but I think they are decisions that are in the best interest of the organization and should be treated as such. Let’s see what some of the kids can do, give the older guys adequate rest, and incorporate the information into the re-structuring that needs to happen this offseason.

Detroit Tigers – Record (53 – 55) – Projected Record (77 – 85)

The Tigers have fallen to 13.5 games back of the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central, and four games back of the second Wild Card spot. While the Wild Card seems attainable, BP has the Tigers’ playoff odds at a season-low 6.8%, and the teams they are battling with for the spot (Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Orioles, Rangers) have more raw talent. The moves the Tigers made at the deadline indicate they understood this and have thrown in the towel on 2015. With Dave Dombrowski getting forced out this week (or choosing to leave or whatever the case was), the Tigers are under new general management and are planning for 2016. This change is problematic for Brad Ausmus, who could be on his way out of town at season’s end but still needs to captain the sinking ship for two more months. The best process for Ausmus and the best process for the organization probably don’t align but, at this point, that is part of the gig. Like the Red Sox, the Tigers will aim to use the next two months to get a look at some of the younger players on their roster and to sort out what their pitching staff, most notably their bullpen, will look like next year. Ausmus will have to toe the line.

Probables:

Game 1: Joe Kelly vs. Daniel Norris, Friday 7:08pm EDT

I wonder how long the Joe Kelly-as-starter experiment is going to last. I have been clear with my stance that it should have ended months ago. In his last five starts he has yet to get through six innings and allowed the following run totals: 5, 5, 4, 5, 2. Nevertheless, I suppose at this point, with the season lost, there is not much harm in continuing to send him out to the mound as a starter in the hopes that he figures it out. If he doesn’t, which really looks like the safer bet, then he slots in as a reliever for 2016.

The Red Sox will get a look at one of the Tigers’ shiny, new pitchers. Norris, who came to the Tigers from the Blue Jays in the David Price deadline deal, has been inconsistent in his six big league starts this season. He made the Jays’ starting rotation out of Spring Training, but struggled in three of his four starts in April earning a demotion to Triple-A Buffalo. The struggles continued at the lower level (4.27 ERA, 3.55 FIP in 16 starts). Despite this, the Tigers put him in their rotation immediately and Norris responded by making the decision look good in his first outing for the club. On Sunday in Camden Yards, the lefty held the Orioles to one run on four hits and a walk in 7.1 innings, striking out five along the way. Left-handed pitching has given the Red Sox some trouble this year, so Norris presents a series-opening hurdle.

Game 2: Wade Miley vs. Alfredo Simon, Saturday 7:08pm EDT

Wade Miley is in some way the last man standing from the Opening Day rotation. He is the only starter from the original group that has avoided the disabled list, and/or time in Pawtucket. The consistency of taking the ball every fifth day has some value, even when the performance is not sparkling. Speaking of performance, Miley’s fielding-independent number (4.08) suggests he has pitched better than his ERA (4.55), but both numbers are worse than league average. Other than one blowup against the White Sox last week, he has pitched fairly well lately, and will look to keep the trend moving in the right direction this weekend.

I mentioned in my preview of the previous Tigers’ series that Simon’s season has involved a good half and a bad half. His first nine starts were solid (2.67 ERA, 3.54 FIP), but then his next nine awful (6.99 ERA, 4.62 FIP). Since then he has continued the trend with one good start and one bad one. The good one came against the Red Sox, in which he threw six innings, only allowed one run, five hits, walking two and striking out four. But in Simon’s next outing the Orioles touched him up for four runs in 5.2 innings, hitting two home runs in the process and only striking out once. Hopefully the Red Sox fare better against Mr. Simon this weekend than they did two weeks ago.

Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Justin Verlander, Sunday 1:08pm EDT

Owens, making his second big league start on Sunday, was a mixed bag in his first outing against the Yankees on Tuesday. He showed great breaking pitches that made good hitters look foolish on a few swings, but he struggled with fastball command. Yankees third baseman Chase Headley was more impressed with Owens’ poise and execution than he was his stuff, but still thought Owens will be an effective starter going forward. As noted, Owens has an opportunity to demonstrate that he should be in the 2016 rotation. Getting deeper into the game than he did in New York and showing he can successfully navigate a lineup three or more times will be critical for his future. Seeing how players like Owens perform at the highest level and make adjustments as they learn how to attack major league hitters will help make the remainder of the season enjoyable.

In limited innings this season, Verlander has not been his former self. The 5.05 ERA and 4.71 FIP are both career highs, but are both down considerably from what they were two weeks ago when the Red Sox saw him. That start against the Red Sox was strong. He held them to one run on seven hits over his eight innings. He then backed that up with another solid start against an AL East opponent, holding the Rays to one run on four hits over eight innings. The Royals knocked him around a bit in his most recent start, scattering ten hits and scoring five runs in his seven innings of work. Critically, though, Verlander has not walk a batter in his last three starts but has struck out 18: a ratio that is much more reminiscent of the Verlander from a few years back.

Opposing Lineup:

The Tigers’ offense has slipped since the Red Sox saw them two weeks ago. Then, they were a top five group, but a couple of tough weeks and the trade of slugger Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline has resulted in them dropping down a few spots to 11^th in TAv (.263). They are still without Miguel Cabrera, and given their decision to be sellers at the deadline it seems short-sighted to rush him back into playing. With that said, this lineup, with Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler, can still put up big numbers. They present another test for the lost-at-sea Red Sox pitching staff.

Jefry Marte (.275 TAv) is another option at first base. He has played well in his opportunities, ending up keeping a spot on the roster over Marc Krauss who started in one of the games against the Red Sox two weeks ago. Tyler Collins (.266 TAv in 20 PA), Josh Wilson (.309 TAv in 23 PA) and Andrew Romine (.263 TAv in 105 PA) represent other decent options off the bench.

Recap

The outcomes of these games don’t really matter to either team, as both squads are well back of a playoff spot and in the midst of sorting out what they may have for next year. Then again, losing could help with getting a higher draft pick, so maybe the outcomes do matter, just not in the traditional sense. Regardless, as noted the pitching for both sides has been problematic this season, especially the bullpens, so expect a fair amount of offense over the three games. Watching the Red Sox’s pitchers get knocked around is beyond tiresome, but if there are going to be lots of balls in play, having Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo play in Comerica Park’s expansive outfield could be a lot of fun. Silver linings, folks.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

While Boston’s season is over, there are still plenty of games to play. This weekend, they’ll host another disappointing would-be contender, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers – Record (47 – 48) – Projected Record (83 – 79)

The Tigers are 10.5 games back of the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central, but only four games back of the second Wild Card spot. BP has their playoff odds at a decent 28.3%, so they are certainly not out of it like the Red Sox are. Despite this, the major narrative surrounding the Tigers is that they need to be sellers at the deadline, getting as much in return as possible for players like David Price and Yoenis Cespedes so that they can begin rebuilding their bankrupt farm system. The most prudent action is probably selling and getting a start on the future, but the team has a fair chance at making the playoffs and pushing for another run with the team they have assembled is also understandable. They have a strong offense that can score quickly, but, like other teams I have reviewed this season, are often let down by their pitching. The starting rotation has put up the sixth worst ERA in the game (4.58, ninth worst FIP: 4.23). David Price has been really good, but after him it is a pile of junk. Alfredo ‘Big Pasta’ Simon, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, and a cavalcade of others have been worth 0.78 pWARP over 432.2 innings pitched. Not great. The bullpen has been just as bad (4.04 ERA, 4.15 FIP), having accumulated a -5.67 RE24. Tigers’ manager Brad Ausmus has yet to figure out correct bullpen management and has come under fire in the media for his inability over the last week.

Probables:

Game 1: Rick Porcello vs. Justin Verlander, Friday 7:10pm EDT

Rick Porcello has been a true Red Sox this season: a disappointment. This weekend he gets to show off his new style to his old mates. Porcello holds a 5.79 ERA, easily the worst of his career, and a 4.63 FIP, also easily the worst of his career. He is averaging a home run allowed per start, and 1.53 per nine innings pitched. The man who was supposed to attack the bottom of the strike zone and roll ground balls all over the place has struggled working up in the zone, chasing strikeouts. His ground ball rate is way down from career marks this season, and while his strikeout rate is up, the combination has simply not worked.

While Porcello has been bad and is owed a lot of money over the next four years, at least he is not owed Verlander money. Verlander is collecting a cool $28mm this year and each of the next four years. He has pitched only 34.0 innings this season and the results have been ugly: 6.26 ERA, 6.06 FIP. His average fastball velocity has declined a few miles per hour from his 2011 Cy Young, MVP season, and his effectiveness has gone down with it. He simply does not get batters to swing and miss as often as he used to, which has led to a reduced strikeout total and more balls in play. Verlander is not the same pitcher he was, he is more of an average starter than a front-of-the-rotation guy.

Game 2: Steven Wright vs. Alfredo Simon, Saturday 4:05pm EDT

The knuckleballer has been about what you would expect from a fifth starter still trying to command a difficult pitch. In five starts he has a 5.14 ERA. He has done a decent job of keeping opposing hitters from getting on base (.282 OBP against), but has given up too many extra base hits: .445 SLG, 11 of 26 hits have been for extra bases. Wright can be really good, as we saw in his brief stint with the team last September, but he is a knuckleballer and as such is very hard to project. I think the Red Sox should strongly consider a tandem situation with Wright and another starter – maybe even one who throws really hard (*cough* Joe Kelly) – in order to maximize both players. Regardless, Wright will need to perform more like he did in 2014 over the next few months if he is going to be considered at all for a rotation spot in the future.

What an interesting story of two halves for Simon. Through his first nine starts of the season he averaged 6.2 innings per start, held a 2.67 ERA (3.54 FIP), was striking out more than two batters for every one he walked and looked like a really nice offseason acquisition for the Tigers. In his next nine starts he has averaged 5.1 innings, posted a 6.99 ERA (4.62 FIP), produced a 40/21 K/BB, and really only looked good in his two starts against the lowly White Sox. The second nine starts resemble more the player Simon was expected to be than do the first nine. The Red Sox should be able to do some damage against the big fella.

Game 3: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Shane Greene, Sunday 8:08pm EDT

At one point this season Eduardo Rodriguez was a beautiful bright spot in the rotation, presenting a glimpse of a strong future. Rodriguez had quality starts in four of his first five starts, but then the Orioles knocked him around really hard and it was revealed that he was tipping his pitches. The results suggest that Rodriguez got whatever pitch tipping issues he was working through straightened out over his next three starts. But then the Angels absolutely crushed him this week, scoring seven runs in just 1.2 innings against Rodriguez, and the mention of pitch tipping has resurfaced. Now, it may have just been one bad outing against a team that has a bunch of really good hitters, but Angels batters were teeing off on first pitches like they knew what was coming. This weekend’s start against the Tigers presents another test for Rodriguez. If he can limit their strong offense, the Red Sox should be confident that he has worked through the pitch tipping problem and will be a positive contributor to the rotation going forward.

Greene came to the Tigers this offseason as part of the three-team trade with New York and Arizone that landed Didi Gregorious in the Bronx. After three brilliant outings to start the year (23.0 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 5 BB, 11 K), he has been a disaster. In his last 54.1 innings (12 starts) he has allowed 57 runs, only getting through the sixth inning twice. His strikeout rate is down 8% from last year, and like Porcello, he has had trouble with the long ball. Greene now has 29 major league starts behind him, with a roughly even split of good and bad. Overall, he is probably not as bad as he has looked this year in Detroit, but is also probably not as good as he was for New York last year.

Opposing Lineup:

The Tigers’ offense is top five in baseball (.270 TAv; 112 wRC+). It is considerably less potent without Miguel Cabrera looming in the middle, but there is still a lot of pop among this group. Victor Martinez has really turned things around in June and July after an awful April and May, J.D. Martinez is honest-to-goodness threat (.345 OBP, .566 SLG, 27 HR), and old friend, free-swinging Yoenis Cespedes can do damage when he makes contact (.488 SLG, 14 HR).

The lineup is mostly right-handed, so they fare well against left-handed pitching, but interestingly do not have a huge platoon split on the season. Jefry Marte is another option at first base for Tigers’ manager Brad Ausmus. The 24-year-old Marte hit well at Triple-A Toledo this year (.271/.337/.497, 13 HR in 323 plate appearances) before getting called up to help fill-in for Miggy’s absence. The Tigers offense is not all about the dingers, though. Ex-Blue Jay outfielders Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis are both threats on the basepaths, having combined to steal 28 bases in 39 tries to date. While James ‘don’t call be Brian’ McCann has caught majority of the games this year (62), Alex Avila (.243 TAv) will probably get a start in at least one of the three games.

Recap

Given all the details of these two teams, I expect the games to be more high-scoring than low-scoring, and to include a couple of bullpen meltdowns for good measure. The outcomes of the games probably matter more to the Tigers than the Red Sox, not that that matters for projecting the winners of the games, but it is worth noting as this series will likely have implications for the decisions Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski makes at the trade deadline next week.

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