Some things you may have noticed recently: air, the ground, taxes, David Ortiz’s continuing awesomeness, and the sun. These are all things we can count on, year after year. As miraculous as the sun and air are though, this article is about David Ortiz. As of this writing, Ortiz is hitting .322/.409/.678. That, as it turns out, is very similar to Mike Trout who is hitting .314/.401/.560. Oh wait, no, it’s much better than Trout. Ortiz is out-slugging Mike Trout by 118 points. Otherwise they’re very similar.
By True Average Ortiz has been the 20th-best hitter in baseball this season. By OPS he’s fourth. You know it’s a good number because I had to spell it out. By FanGraphs’ wRC+, Ortiz is second. SECOND! Add it all up and Ortiz has been somewhere amongst the best hitters in baseball this season, which is amazing in its own right. What makes it nuttier is that Ortiz is 40 and has announced he’ll retire after this season. Because, you know, he’s old. I thought Ortiz’s incredible start to the season might be worth looking into on a deeper level.
How is Ortiz doing this? Well, when you really look at the numbers, the strangest thing emerges: he’s doing exactly what he always does. Yes, he’s hitting lefties a bit better than he has most recently, but Ortiz has been all over the map during his career when facing same-sided pitchers. If you’re old enough you may recall Terry Francona pinch-hitting for Ortiz against lefties late in 2010 or so. Big Papi was not pleased with that, but it wasn’t without reason. Ortiz hit .222/.275/.324 with a 6.5 percent walk rate against lefties that year. Guess what he did the following season? He hit .329/.423/.566 with a 13.4 percent walk rate. This year, in a very small sample of 24 plate appearances, he’s hitting .304/.333/.522 versus lefties. That’s not as good as what he’s doing against right-handers (I’d publish the numbers here but this is a family website), but there’s nothing wrong with a .333 on-base while slugging .522.
On a more minute level, Ortiz is swinging at almost the exact percentage of pitches he always has, which in this case is 44 percent. Last year he swung at 45 percent of the pitches he saw, the year before 44 percent, and the year before that 44 percent. He’s also swinging at strikes about the same as always (68 percent this season) while swinging at pitches outside the zone about the same as well (27 percent). He’s hitting a ton of fly balls, a ton of line drives, and very few pop-ups or ground balls. In fact, his ground ball rate is the lowest it’s been since 2009.
It’s true that his .329 BABIP is high, which you wouldn’t expect from a 40-year-old DH, but he posted a .321 BABIP in 2013. And 2011. So it’s not like he hasn’t done this before. But that’s the strangest thing about it. He HAS done this before. He’s ALWAYS done this. He’s David Ortiz, just like he’s always been. That’s something, especially in a world where the air and ground get dirtier, taxes go up, and who knows how long the sun is going to stick this one out. What we do know, at least for now, is that when David Ortiz stands at the plate, he will always be David Ortiz. If you don’t believe it, we’ve got 127 plate appearances this season to add to the 9,465 that came before to prove it.
Ortiz is having what might just be his best season as his swan song. He has always been at his greatest when the game is about to end and everything is on the line. Now it’s not the game that’s ending, but his career, so of course he’s putting up a 195 wRC+, 20 points higher than any season in his career. I’ve mentioned throughout this piece how amazing it is that Ortiz is doing this at age 40, but perhaps there is something even more amazing: that he’s not done yet.
Photo by Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports Images
If only you’d waited a couple of days to write this, you might have found something positive to say about Ortiz. I mean, now that he’s now leading the actual entire major leagues in slugging and OPS.
You don’t think I had anything positive to say about Ortiz? I suggest you re-read the first two sentences.