The Red Sox had just finished their third straight drubbing of the A’s on Wednesday night. They were powered by an offense that combined for 40 runs over the three-game series – led by red-hot Jackie Bradley Jr. and Travis Shaw, and the ageless David Ortiz – and furthered their grip on an early AL East lead. Over the Monster sent out a tweet after the game that was perhaps most telling of there the Sox are talent-wise compared to this time last season.
Last year, Brock Holt was basically the “pity All-Star” for Boston.
This year they have how many deserving candidates? Six? Seven?
— OverTheMonster (@OverTheMonster) May 12, 2016
I started to wonder how true that is. Could the Red Sox really have that many All-Stars this season? As the aforementioned tweet points out, Brock Holt was only All Star on the 2015 Red Sox. And the only reason he was selected to the team was because the Red Sox needed a representative. He had a strong first half offensively and Ned Yost liked his versatility. That was good enough. Remember, Ortiz hit .231/.326/.435 over the first half of the season and Mookie Betts’ bat didn’t come around until June. The only possible snub at the time was Xander Bogaerts, who finished last in the final vote.
What a difference a year makes.
Seven players in the Red Sox’s everyday lineup boasted true averages of .264 or higher entering Sunday, and two of their starting pitchers – unlikely heros Steven Wright and Rick Porcello – have established themselves among the most reliable in the American League. The Sox have looked every bit as good as their record indicates. Such team success is bound to result in individual recognition, and the Red Sox could be well on their way to that come July’s Midsummer Classic.
But just how many Red Sox can we expect to see at Petco Park on July 12? To get an idea, I looked at each position and determined where each Red Sox player stacked up compared to those at their respective positions and determined their All-Star worthiness by breaking down the sure things, strong candidates and those who can play their way into All-Star consideration over the next month and a half. Sure, it’s only mid-May, but on the Internet it’s never too early to look ahead.
Sure things:
David Ortiz – First of all, it’s Ortiz’s retirement tour. If Derek Jeter’s 2014 landslide win in the popular vote tells us anything, it’s that Ortiz is all but guaranteed a spot in the All-Star Game. But unlike Jeter, who posted a .236 TAv and -2.0 WARP in his final season, Ortiz has earned it with his play. His 1.3 BWARP is top among AL designated hitters. He’s second in baseball in doubles (16), one of 13 players with double-digit home runs and he’s sporting a .343 TAv. There’s no need to debate this one. He’ll probably cruise in via popular vote for his 10th All-Star selection.
Xander Bogaerts - Some may argue Bogaerts was undeservedly left off the All-Star team last year. That won’t be the case this season. Offensively, Bogaerts has been the AL’s best shortstop. He’s second in BWARP (1.7), first in doubles (14) and owns a .299 TAv. His closest competition at the plate is Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor, who owns a .272 TAv and 1.7 BWARP. Bogaerts not only holds the advantage over all AL shortstops in just about every offensive category, he’s also been solid with the glove. His 1.5 FRAA is the best of his young career and he hasn’t been short of highlight-reel plays.
Strong candidates:
Jackie Bradley Jr. - Bradley has been on a ridiculous tear. He’s riding a 21-game hitting streak that entering Sunday propelled his BWARP to 1.3, good for second among AL center fielders. In case you’re wondering, yes, that puts him right there with the Mike Trouts of the world. Bradley leads AL center fielders in RBI (30), is second to Trout in home runs (six) and owns a .318 TAv. His .267 ISO also puts him in the league-best discussion. He sounds like a sure thing, doesn’t he? I’m hesitant to put him there because of his history. Bradley showed he could be this kind of hitter last August. The problem is what followed is a reminder that he’s due for a 20-game hitless streak any time soon. The pace Bradley has played at over the last two weeks is seemingly impossible to maintain. It’s how far he’ll drop off once the streak is over that’ll determine his All-Star potential.
Steven Wright - Wright has not only been the Red Sox’s best pitcher thus far, he’s also been among the best in the American League. Wright’s 0.9 PWARP is good for 11th in the AL and 26th in all of baseball. He also has the AL’s seventh-best ERA at 2.36 and a 2.28 strikeout to walk ratio. His 3.16 FIP and 3.36 DRA don’t scream All-Star, but the results we’ve seen on the field are what matters when it comes to All-Star candidacy, and Wright has been as dependable as they come. The problem is the sustainability of this pace. The knuckleball has been good to Wright thus far, but as we saw on Friday night, it’s a wildly unpredictable pitch that can ebb and flow like no other. What is clear is that Wright is as deserving as any other AL pitcher right now.
Travis Shaw - Shaw has played like an All-Star, but it’s possible he won’t get the recognition he deserves. Shaw’s 1.1 BWARP puts him fourth among AL third basemen, while his .316 TAv puts him third. Those are great numbers, especially for a player who won his starting job in spring training. What may hold him back is the competition. There’s no surpassing the production of Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson – although Shaw is actually hitting for a higher average than the latter – while veterans Adrian Beltre and Nick Castellanos are also in the mix. Even if Shaw doesn’t make the team, that doesn’t mean Shaw can’t be an All Star in our hearts.
Dustin Pedroia - Pedroia looks better than he has in years. The numbers speak for themselves. Pedroia has a .267 TAv, .183 ISO and eight doubles. His .301 batting average is fourth among AL second basemen while he owns a 0.3 BWARP. He’s once again established himself among the premier offensive second baseman, as his numbers rival that of his four All-Star seasons. As with Shaw, his competition might be what keeps him out. Jose Altuve (.364 TAv, 2.3 BWARP) and Robinson Cano (.321, 1.9) are a class above Pedroia. Roughned Odor (.220 ISO) and Logan Forsythe (.215 ISO) are up-and-comers who are showing more power than Pedroia has throughout his career.
Craig Kimbrel – He hasn’t been flawless, but he’s striking out over 40 percent of the batters he faces. Also, he’s Craig Kimbrel.
Those who can play their way into consideration:
Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez has not met expectations this season, and that’s probably a good thing. He’s been a competent first baseman and debuted a new swing that has yielded mixed results. He’s making more contact and spraying the ball all over the field, but his power has slipped. All in all, his .282 TAv and .151 ISO are good numbers, but not necessarily from All-Star worthy for first basemen. Here’s why Ramirez is on this list; As Matt Collins wrote two weeks ago, Ramirez sported a .236 TAv through his first 79 plate appearances. A strong week at the plate upped Ramirez’s numbers, and gives hope that he’s only getting started. He’s just a couple of hot weeks away from All-Star consideration.
Mookie Betts – Betts hasn’t looked like an All Star. He’s been arguably the Red Sox’s second-worst everyday player behind Christian Vazquez, posting a .256 TAv. But these struggles are reminiscent of the first half of last season when Betts started slowly before turning his season around in the second half. If Betts can return to 2015 mid- to late-season form sooner, perhaps the All Star-caliber numbers will come with it.
Rick Porcello – It’s easy to underestimate how good Porcello has been this season. His 1.0 PWARP is 10th in the AL and 21st in baseball. His 3.11 ERA, 3.55 FIP and 3.32 DRA are solid. And he’s striking out 8.94 batters per nine innings. Those are great numbers for a No. 2 or 3 starter. It may not make him an All Star, but it could at least put him in the discussion. Like Wright, Porcello has been as steady as they come. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in every start since his season debut and has yet to implode over the course of an inning the way he so often did last season. He’d need to pitch like an ace over the next month just to be considered for an All-Star berth, but at least he has life.
***
The Red Sox have at least two All Stars in Ortiz and Bogaerts. That alone is an improvement from last season. But then there’s the possibility they have as many as six All Stars come July. It would require many things to fall into place – Bradley staying hot; Wright continuing to pitch like an ace; Shaw and Pedroia keeping up their pace while the players at their respective positions falter – but six legitimate All-Star candidates in the middle of May is an impressive output. It’s unclear just how many Red Sox will be in San Diego this year, but it’ll be enough to make this year’s Midsummer Classic worth watching for Red Sox fans.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images
No wonder the infield positions have heavy competition — only 5 of the top 20 hitters in the AL by OPS are outfielders, and another 2 are DHs. And only 2 out of the 5 OFers are names you might expect to see (Trout and young Springer). The Sox have all 4 infielders batting over .300 and that’s not enough to make them all-stars. By the way, V-Mart is having a tremendous year at DH and isn’t very far behind Papi in the stats dept.