Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

After a slew of promising starts for Johnson, the lefty hit a small bump in the road during his latest outing. On Sunday, Johnson only lasted three innings in Columbus, allowing four earned runs on six hits in three innings. He also struck out one and walked four, throwing 78 pitches, 46 of them being strikes. It was an unfortunate outing to cap off what had been, for the most part, an encouraging July from Johnson.

This was his first start for Pawtucket since he took some time off, so an adjustment period is to be expected. Anxiety is no joke, and with other viable (whatever, they might be) options in Triple-A, there’s no real rush for Johnson. Still, he didn’t look half bad in four starts split between Lowell and the Red Sox Gulf Coast affiliate, so the potential is still there. It will be interesting to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before he was placed on the temporary inactive list in early May.

Quick update on Henry Owens

If you can believe it, Owens followed up a strong start with a poor one. After posting seven innings of one-hit ball on the 16th — arguably his strongest outing of the year — Owens was flat five days later, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. He also walked three.

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

He’s the one raking in Portland that isn’t mentioned in Chris Sale rumors. Over the last 10 games he’s hitting .421 and is riding a seven game hitting streak. MLB.com has Dubon ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Red Sox system. He started the year in Salem, slashing .306/.387/.379 (with a pedestrian .766 OPS, though) and has missed a beat since being promoted. In 27 games at Portland, he’s hitting .333/.372/.476 and raised that OPS to .848.

The irony of him not being mentioned in trade rumors is that if the Sox make a move over the next week, it’s more likely than not it’s Dubon on the move than Benintendi or Moncada. It’s unfortunate that he’s blocked by two organizational cornerstones and a third wunderkind that might very well also be one, but Dubon is a nice prospect who could turn into a serviceable every day starter for someone down the line.

Quick Update on Yoan Moncada 

The last 10 days in Portland haven’t been kind to Moncada, who’s hitting a measly .167 over that last span. He hasn’t hit a home run since he hit two in one game on July 18th. [Editor’s note: These stats are through 7/25, and Moncada did hit a homer last night]

Even Quicker Update on Andrew Benintendi

He’s playing left field now! It’s all happening!

High-A Salem: Rafael Devers (3B)

He’s had quite a week, hitting .300/.391/.650 with a 1.041 OPS over the last seven days. He’s hit .378/.434/.711 during an out-of-his-mind stretch throughout July. This season, his month splits go as such:

April: .138/.242./.263
May: .245/.301/.351
June: .313/.351/.386
July: .378/.434/.711

It’s well documented that Devers was wildly unlucky to start the year – in April he had a ugly .145 BABIP. This July, that numbers up at .458, which is fun. Totally, completely unsustainable, but fun. In a perfect world Portland plays at least a few games with Benintendi, Devers, and Dubon all on the left side with Moncada at second. Could that team beat the Sixers!?

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

He’s hitting .318 over the last week and .373 in the month of July. Considering he’s a career .260 hitter throughout his short career, there’s probably some sort of regression not far away. He has five plus tools, although scouts seem to be the least confident in the hit tool. He’s shown some of that surprising power this month as well, hitting four home runs while only hitting six in the previous three months combined.

He was also born in 1996, and there’s nothing quite like writing about young prospects to help remind you that time is fleeting and we all grow old.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Anthony Varvaro (RHP) and Ryan LaMarre (OF)

Anthony Varvaro does not fit the mould of the players we typically review in Fenway’s Future. He is not a prospect, but rather a 31-year old reliever who is working to get another chance in the major leagues. Varvaro pitched effectively for the Braves from 2012 to 2014, and got into nine games with the Red Sox last year before a torn flexor tendon ended his season in May. This season, Varvaro is again pitching effectively. In 27.0 innings for the PawSox he has only allowed eight runs, and has struck out more than one batter per inning. The strikeouts are promising but he also allowed 12 walks and already has four wild pitches, so his control is still a work in progress.

With the questions that loom regarding how the Red Sox’s bullpen will shake out over the next few weeks and Varvaro’s performance at Pawtucket thus far, he could get a call to come back to the big leagues soon. And if that call is going to happen, it needs to come now, as Varvaro had an opt-out in his contract that allowed him to leave the organization yesterday, June 15. Last week, Varvaro told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he did not know what he was going to do about the opt-out, but he noted that he thought the Red Sox bullpen had plenty of options and was not in need an adjustment. However, given his previous major league experience and effectiveness, and current effectiveness in Triple-A, giving him a role in low-leverage innings could work out well. It is a small sample and almost nobody maintains reverse-splits over an extended period, but Varvaro has been tougher on lefties than he has on righties in his career. With this in mind, perhaps Varvaro could replace Tommy Layne. Then again, this might just be making a move for the sake of keeping Varvaro in the organization, while exposing Layne to other teams (he is out of options). Regardless, Varvaro is someone who should be considered to fill any opening that should arise in the Red Sox bullpen.

Left field is another area/position of the Red Sox that is in a state of flux. With injuries to Brock Holt and Blake Swihart, Chris Young has been forced into a starting role; a move that may be the best, as Rusney Castillo is still a mess at the plate (.245/.304/.320). Rather than Castillo, the Red Sox should consider adding PawSox center fielder Ryan LaMarre to their bench. LaMarre, a second round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in the 2010 draft, got a cup of coffee with the Reds last season before signing with the Red Sox as a free agent this past offseason. At Pawtucket he has performed very well. He has a .310/.377/.462 line, with five home runs and nine stolen bases in 13 tries. The stolen base success rate could be better, but otherwise those are solid numbers.

Adding LaMarre to the major league bench provides a versatile outfielder with speed; he is a center fielder but has played left and right field in the minors. The move also affords Castillo yet another chance to get regular plate appearances and work out all of the things that ail him. Castillo is not a major league ready player and it is really unlikely that he will become one by watching games on cushy major league benches. Adding LaMarre to the major league team requires adding him to the 40-man roster, which may be why the Red Sox have opted to shuttle Castillo back-and-forth, but the 40-man issue seems like a minor part of a decision that could help multiple components of the team.

Double-A Portland: Justin Haley (RHP)

At the end of the 2014 season, Justin Haley made six starts (37.2 innings) for the Sea Dogs and pitched well (1.19 RA9, 3.73 FIP). His fielding independent measure shows that he was basically the same guy in 2015 (3.83), but his runs allowed mark jumped significantly to an unimpressive 5.80. Much of the runs allowed difference was a result of a huge drop in strand rate. In 2014 only 4.9 percent of his baserunners eventually scored, while in 2015 that number was 37.3 percent. In 2016, Haley is pitching closer to his 2014 levels, which is good news for the organization. Over his twelve starts (61.1 innings), Haley has a 2.20 RA9 (2.58 FIP) with 59 strikeouts and only 19 walks. His strand rate, while high at 80.2 percent, is not dramatically above his career rate. Presently, he is in the midst of a really strong run. In eight of his last nine starts he has allowed one or fewer runs, the lone holdout a blow-up against Toronto’s affiliate in which he allowed four runs on two hits and four walks, while only recording one out. Ugly stuff. A positive from that outing is that he seems to have quickly put it behind him. His four starts since have all been strong. Coming off of his difficult 2015, in which he pitched well but allowed too many runs, Haley must be feeling better about his progress and ability to compete against quality opponents. If he continues to perform well a promotion to Pawtucket by season’s end could be in the cards.

Quick update on Andrew Benintendi (OF):

When we last checked in on Benintendi he was still adjusting to the Double-A level, having posted a .105/.150/.158 line in his first 20 PA. Since then he has a .268/.312/.394 line over his 77 PA, with a home run, a triple and four doubles. He seems to be adjusting to his new level quite well. Perhaps Benintendi can provide a Bogaertsian-2013 role for the Red Sox down the stretch and in playoff games this year.

High-A Salem: Ben Taylor (RHP)

Taylor, now a force out of the Salem bullpen, started the season as a starter. He made three starts to start the year, two of which went well. However, due to his overpowering fastball that registers in the upper-90s, the team felt he could be most effective in shorter outings as a reliever. The results suggest the team was not wrong. In his 30.0 relief innings, Taylor has only allowed six runs, while striking out 42 batters and only walking six. Seven-to-one is an incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio and one that foretells future success. It should be noted that Taylor’s move to the bullpen has not made him a one-inning-and-done guy. In fact he has yet to have a one inning appearance. He has made 11 appearances, on-average throwing 2.2 innings, and in two cases throwing four or more innings (4.0, 4.1, respectively). In that 4.0 innings outing, 10 of the 12 outs he recorded came via the strikeout. Clearly, he can be dominant. While it is not clear that this is the intention with Taylor (and others), I love the idea of the organization developing effective multi-inning relievers. They could change the way the big league roster is constructed, ideally allowing for a deeper, more versatile bench.

Quick updates on Yoan Moncada (2B) and Rafael Devers (3B):

Moncada’s season line has dropped since our last check-in, but it is still very impressive and strong enough for a promotion to Double-A soon. His season line currently sits at .299/.419/.466, with three home runs, three triples, 22 doubles, and 36 stolen bases in 44 tries.

Devers continues his up-and-down season. He seems to follow a couple of good games with a couple of bad ones. For example, last week he had back-to-back multi hit games, but then went 0-for-4 in each of the following two games. Regardless, there is progress. Over the last three weeks Devers has a .329/.368/.429 line, which is much more in line with expectations.

Low-A Greenville: Jose Almonte (RHP)

The 20-year old, Almonte has been another bright spot in the Drive’s rotation. His season started slower than he had hoped, as he was recovering from a hip/groin injury sustained during Spring Training, but since getting on the mound for regular reps he has shown what he can do. In six starts this season (31.0 innings) he holds a 2.90 RA9 (3.41 FIP), with 27 strikeouts and just 11 walks. His three pitch mix, mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup have made him difficult for the opposition. For example, in his third start of the season, easily his best, Almonte held the Braves’ affiliate hitless over six scoreless innings; two walks kept him from registering a perfect appearance. With Almonte, and 18-year-olds Anderson Espinoza and Roniel Raudes, the Drive have an exciting mix of young pitching to track over the coming years.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Roenis Elias (LHP) and Bryce Brentz (OF)

Roenis Elias was the second player the Red Sox acquired in the Wade Miley-Carson Smith trade with the Mariners this winter. Elias seemed to fit in among the Steven Wright, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson morass of a fifth spot in the rotation. But then his 10.45 ERA in the spring ensured he would start the year at Pawtucket, and unfortunately things have gotten only slightly better. Through his first 25 innings this season he had a 7.20 RA9 (4.83 FIP). Walking 19 batters while striking out 20 will do that to you. Clearly things have been rough for Elias, and just as his chances of getting another shot in the big leagues appeared to be slipping away, he went out and was pretty dominant in his most recent start. Over 7.2 innings (his longest of the season) he allowed only two runs (both solo home runs), walked nobody (!) and struck out 13 (!). According to a report from Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, Pawtucket pitching coach Bob Kipper noticed a rhythm issue in Elias’ delivery and worked with him to implement a freer approach with how he delivered the ball. Obviously, the early results from this adjustment are positive. If it is truly the change needed to get Elias back on track, maintaining consistency with the adjusted delivery will be crucial. If Elias is unstuck and can return to a moderate level of effectiveness, he provides the Red Sox an option other than Henry Owens to fill an open rotation spot.

Bryce Brentz suffered an oblique strain during Spring Training that kept him out of game action for the first two weeks of the season. Then once he got into the lineup it took some time to get things going. He spent the first part of the season at Double-A Portland, where he accumulated 48 plate appearances and posted a .200/.333/.325 line with two doubles and one home run. That is not a great line, but he was moved back up to Pawtucket and with his promotion came a bump in his offensive production. Over his 48 PA with the PawSox he has posted a .295/.354/.364 line, with three doubles but no home runs. While his batting average has seen the largest jump, largely a result of a correspondingly large rise in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his power is still lacking. His .068 isolated power this season at Pawtucket, will, if it continues, be the lowest mark of his career (among stints with at least 25 PA). Brentz is projected for considerable power, so this lack of it in the early going is slightly concerning. But it is only 48 PA, so there is not yet any real reason for alarm.

Brentz’s path to the big leagues appears murky. His hit tool is likely his ticket upward, but he needs to hit more than he has this year and did last year (.264 TAv), or at least get back to his lefty-mashing ways of 2014 when he posted a 1.039 OPS against lefties (.698 OPS against righties) if he is going to get called up. His defense is fine, but not outstanding to the point of needing to have him roam the Fenway lawn. According to his fielding runs above average number, which should be interpreted cautiously, he was an above average outfielder last year, but is back below average this year. Regardless, with a defender like Rusney Castillo, a utility guy like Brock Holt, and infielders like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart all ahead of Brentz on the outfield depth chart, Brentz’s chances to get back to the big leagues with Boston appear grim.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF)

When we last checked on Rusney Castillo, he was struggling at the plate, especially in the power department. That problem has not changed. He has nine hits over the last two weeks – all but one of which are singles – and has walked and struck out twice. Put it all together and his season line now sits at an unimpressive .256/.313/.308. While many (including me) thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was the all-glove, no-bat outfielder in the Red Sox system, at least Bradley Jr. hit at Pawtucket. The same cannot be said for Castillo. This is probably the last time I provide this sort of quick update on him.

Double-A Portland: Aaron Wilkerson (RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

In 2015, the relatively unheralded Aaron Wilkerson moved from Low-A to High-A to Double-A over the course of the season. In his 119.2 innings between Salem (79.0) and Portland (40.2), Wilkerson posted a remarkable 3.08 RA9, with a 2.13 FIP that suggested he was even better. This year he has picked up where he left off, dominating opponents and posting scoreless innings. To date, he has made seven starts for the Sea Dogs, five of which have been scoreless and only one was a clunker (3.1 innings, six runs, eight hits, three walks, four strikeouts). All told, in his 39.1 innings for the Sea Dogs he has struck out 46 batters while walking 12. His last time out, against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (the Blue Jays’ affiliate), he had arguably his best start of the season, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After reading about Wilkerson’s domination, it seems as though he is due for a promotion to Triple-A. Well, he had an opportunity earlier this season to start a game for Pawtucket and it did not go too well (4.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, one home run, three walks, five strikeouts). He was sent back to Portland after the outing and his first start back was the clunker I mentioned above; certainly an interesting week for Mr. Wilkerson. In any case, if he continues to impress at Double-A the way he has so far he will get another chance at the next level.

Two weeks ago I campaigned for Andrew Benintendi to get promoted to Portland so that I could watch him play. The promotion came too late for me to see him, but it came nevertheless. He has now played four games for the Sea Dogs and is still adjusting to the higher level. He has been held hitless, a feat that seemed unthinkable at High-A, in three of his four games and has struck out in five of his 16 PA. To put that in some perspective, he struck out just nine times in his 155 PA with Salem this year. Benintendi has done nothing but hit at an advanced level at each stop in his young career, so it seems likely that he will get back to raking soon.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh pick of the 2013 first-year player draft. Since then Ball has struggled to live up to his draft status in ways that other Red Sox seventh-overall picks have (see Benintendi, Andrew). At each of his three stops in the Red Sox system, Ball has posted an ERA over 4.50 with corresponding fielding independent numbers that suggest he has been that bad. Thus far in 2016, Ball has been effective in limiting runs from scoring (1.96 RA9), but his 4.20 FIP portends a return to previous runs allowed marks, as do his career low .203 BABIP and career high 84.8% strand rate. Basically, he has been navigating trouble by having opponents hit it where they are, which probably won’t last.

Generally, Ball’s major issue is walking batters. In 23.0 innings this year he has allowed nine walks (3.51 BB/9). Last year it was even worse, as he allowed 60 walks in his 129.1 innings pitched for Salem (4.18 BB/9). He has to reduce his walk totals if he is going to succeed and move up in the system. In his most recent outing, Ball kept the opponents, Kansas City’s High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, off the scoreboard, scattered five hits, and only walked two batters over a career high seven innings. What’s more is that he struck out six batters, the third highest total in his young career. Ideally this start is an indication he is headed in the right direction, but it is one start and the Blue Rocks are the weakest offensive team in the Carolina League this year.

Updates on Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers:

Yoan Moncada, like his old teammate Benintendi, is likely to get a promotion soon. He is still dominating pitchers at his level to the tune of a .324/.454/.510 line, and has 29 stolen bases in 35 tries.

Just when it seemed Rafael Devers was coming out of his early season struggles, he had another rough couple of weeks going .182/.234/.205 over his most recent 47 PA. His season line is currently 39 percent worse than average, so he has a lot of work to do if he is going to join his fellow Big Three teammates in Portland.

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

The Greenville Drive team’s offense has been great in the early going this season, and that is despite top-prospect Luis Alexander Basabe struggling to consistently produce. Basabe was signed by the Red Sox, along with his brother Luis Alejandro Basabe, in 2012. Luis Alexander spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in rookie ball, before getting assigned to Lowell last year for his age-18 season. At each level he has produced solid offensive numbers, but has had difficulty thus far at Low-A. His season line is currently .213/.265/.418, which is a bit of a strange line that comes as a result of half of his 26 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, four triples, four home runs). Regardless, a .213 batting average is ugly, and mixing it with a lack of walks is also concerning. He clearly needs to develop better plate discipline, work to earn more walks and focus on attacking pitches in the strike zone. His combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and below-typical BABIP (.282) could suggest that the low batting average comes as a result of him often making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which tend to have poorer outcomes. Without access to his swing and batted ball data (i.e., O-Swing%, O-Contact%, exit velocity) I cannot address this hypothesis directly, but the poor plate discipline numbers point to it being plausible. Regardless, given his age, Basabe will spend at least this season with the Drive, so he will have plenty of time and many opportunities to develop into a more well-rounded hitter.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Marco Hernandez (SS/2B)

Marco Hernandez was acquired in the Felix Doubront trade with the Cubs at the 2014 trade deadline. At the time he looked like a light-hitting middle infielder, having posted below average TAv marks at the Low- and High-A levels of the Cubs’ system. Since joining the Red Sox organization he has developed into an offensive threat. He opened his Red Sox career at Double-A Portland in 2015 and hit well enough (.289 TAv) to earn a mid-season promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket. There, he slashed .271/.300/.409 (.266 TAv) which is a step down from what he was doing in Portland, but likely represents his adjustment to the higher level of pitching.

He opened this season at Triple-A and has gotten back to his excellent offensive ways. In 81 plate appearances he has .330 TAv, the highest mark he has shown at any level. Of course, I need to note that this performance has come in a small number of trips to the plate and that Hernandez is carrying a .417 batting average of balls in play, but there are positive developments. For example, his plate discipline. Hernandez’s walk rate is higher this season than it was last year at the Triple-A level, and, even better, he has paired it with a lower strikeout rate. Having a solid command of the strike zone is something that will help him get to the next level and succeed once there.

We saw Hernandez make his major league debut with the Red Sox earlier this season. On April 17, he started at second base, giving Dustin Pedroia a day off, and went 1-for-2 with a single, a walk and a stolen base, and was the Red Sox’s top offensive contributor by win probability added. We saw how he can impact a game at the plate and with his speed on the base paths. While I have focused on Hernandez’s offense, he is no slouch on defense. Taken together, Hernandez has the potential to be an asset in the major leagues as, at least, a bench, utility infielder role. Once the pitching rotation is settled and the bullpen is sorted out I would like to see the Red Sox get back to carrying (no more than) a 12-pitcher staff and consider adding Hernandez to the bench.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Since we last checked in with Rusney Castillo on April 25, he has made 41 trips to the plate, collecting just six hits (three doubles) and two walks. All told he has a .227/.289/.280 line (83 PA) on the season, which is just bad.

Blake Swihart has made five starts in the outfield without any reported disaster and is still getting starts at catcher, so that route back to Boston is not yet closed. Regardless, his offense has stalled since returning to Pawtucket. He is not hitting for power (.042 isolated power) and not getting on-base at tolerable rate (.284). I hope the demotion did not break him.

Double-A Portland: Ty Buttrey (RHP) and Chandler Shepherd (RHP)

Last season, Buttrey was quickly promoted from Greenville to Salem after showing overpowering stuff in his four starts at the lower level. However, he did not show the same ability at the higher level. In 21 starts at the higher level his ERA was almost two runs higher, largely a result of getting fewer strikeouts and allowing more walks. Regardless, Buttrey was promoted to Double-A to start the 2016 season. Unfortunately, the trend in fewer strikeouts and more walks has followed him through his five starts, leading to a poor runs-allowed total. Control really seems to be his issue. In his 22.0 innings, he has walked as many batters (14) as he has struck out, and hit five of them. His last start was arguably his best of the season with regards to control, as he only walked one batter, struck out two and threw 60 percent of his pitches for strikes over his five innings of work. Ideally this is an outing he can build on.

Buttrey’s teammate, Chandler Shepherd is a reliever who has not struggled with the same control issues that have plagued Buttrey to date. In 10 appearances out of the bullpen (16.1 innings), Shepherd has held opponents scoreless seven times, striking out 20 of the 64 batters he has faced, while only walking five. He had been cruising along, dominating opponents until his most recent outing, which was his worst on the young season. Over two innings he allowed three runs on two home runs and walked two batters. The tough day raised his 2016 RA9 from a respectable 2.51 to a not-so-great 3.86. Regardless, it was one poor outing and generally Shepherd has been a real bright spot for the Sea Dogs so far this season. He looks to be another relief option for the Red Sox in the not-too-distant future.

High-A Salem: Travis Lakins (RHP)

Lakins was selected by the Red Sox in the sixth round of last summer’s amateur draft. He pitched for Ohio State for two seasons before entering the draft. There are questions about whether Lakins can stay in a starting role as he progresses through the system, but so far he is pitching well enough to remain a starter. If you drop his first start – which was pretty rough (3.2 innings, five hits, four runs, three walks, three strikeouts) – from consideration, Lakins has made five strong starts, posting a 2.93 RA9 (3.09 FIP), a 30-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has only allowed one home run. That is an impressive line for the 21-year-old. Continuing to perform as he has should keep him in a starting role for the foreseeable future and could even lead to a promotion to the next level this season where he will be challenged by better hitters.

Updates on the Big-Three:

Andrew Benintendi continues to dominate High-A pitching to a ridiculous extent. He went hitless on Saturday for just the third time this season, which snapped his 23-game hit streak; a Salem Red Sox franchise record. His season line sits at .368/.424/.624. It is not clear to me what else he has to learn at this level. Power? He only has one home run, but has seven triples and 13 doubles and a .256 ISO. Plate discipline? I suppose he could walk more often than he has, but he has more walks (11) than strikeouts (8) and does not appear to be having difficulty making solid contact. I think it is time to promote him to Double-A. Full disclosure: my advocating for his promotion is partly selfish, as I will be in Portland on Thursday to watch the Sea Dogs and want to see Benintendi play. Make me happy, Mr. Dombrowski.

Much of what I wrote about Benintendi can be applied to Yoan Moncada. He too is ready for a promotion to the next level. Since we last checked in with him, Moncada’s season line has dipped slightly to .317/.450/.510, but those are still tremendous rates. I wouldn’t mind watching him on Thursday either, Mr. Dombrowski. Make the move.

To go along with his Big-Three teammates, Rafael Devers seems to be coming out of his early season struggles. Over his most recent 49 plate appearances he has a .250/.327/.477 line, with two home runs, two doubles, a triple, five walks to seven strikeouts, and two stolen bases without getting caught. Things are moving in the expected direction.

Low-A Greenville: Anderson Espinoza (RHP)

Espinoza is the Red Sox’s top pitching prospect. At just 18-years old, he is really young for the Low-A level, but his youth has not really affected his performance. Of his six starts, four have been strong (18.1 innings, three runs allowed, 26 strikeouts, six walks) and two have been clunkers (8.2 innings, ten runs allowed, nine strikeouts, three walks). All told, he has 35 strikeouts in 27.0 innings, which is absolutely fantastic. If he can pair his swing-and-miss stuff with an ability to consistently generate weak contact he will be a true force on the mound. How the Red Sox handle Espinoza’s development through the minor leagues will be interesting to see. Given that he is still young for the Low-A level, it makes sense that he will stay with Greenville for the duration of the 2016 season, continuing to work on his efficiency and developing his arm strength. However, if it gets to the point where he is not challenged by Low-A hitters then moving him to Salem is probably the better course of action. Either way, avoiding rushing him and potentially risking injury is paramount, as he has a high ceiling.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Sam Travis (1B)

Sam Travis, who a mystery scout threw the deliriously exciting Paul Goldschmidt comp on earlier this spring, has been doing his part to live up to the hype. Travis has moved quickly through the Red Sox system. He started the 2015 season at High-A Salem where he crushed opposing pitching to the point that he was promoted to Double-A Portland midway through the season. Once there, he continued his impressive output at the plate. While only accumulating 281 PA at Double-A, Travis’ performance this spring (.469/.429/.719, with two doubles and two home runs) pushed the Red Sox to assign him to the Triple-A level to start the 2016 season.

At Pawtucket this season, the 22-year old has been knocking the ball all over the yard. Five of his 20 hits have gone for extra-bases (three doubles, two home runs) and he has collected multiple hits in seven of his first 17 games. His bat is going to need to carry him to the next level, as due to his lack of speed he is likely limited to playing first base and with that is likely not going to be a standout defender. Travis’ lack of speed/athleticism is something that sticks out as making the Goldschmidt comp silly, but really the comparison is merely something to dream on and not to be taken as an expectation of Travis’ future. Regardless, if Travis can keep hitting the way he has this season at Pawtucket, he could see some action in Boston in September and it is probably not too wild to think that he could have a spot at first base in Fenway Park in 2017. It will be difficult to move Gold Glove first-baseman Hanley Ramirez to the designated hitter spot, but doing so and keeping Travis Shaw at third base opens a big league spot for someone like Sam Travis.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Since we last checked in on him, Rusney Castillo has slowed from his torrid hitting pace. He connected for three singles in his last 16 at-bats, earning nary a walk, and striking out three times. At Pawtucket, his ground-out to fly-out ratio is 1.75, so he is still struggling getting the ball in the air.

Blake Swihart was sent to Pawtucket to work on improving his defense, unfortunately his offense has taken a serious slide. He has a .161/.257/.194 line in 31 PA. It is difficult to know how the defensive side of things are progressing, but he has thrown out three of eight base runners attempting to steal.

Double-A Portland: Wendell Rijo (2B) and Teddy Stankiewicz (RHP)

Last year at High-A Salem, Rijo demonstrated the ability with the bat he showed at the Low-A level in 2014 was for real, as he slashed .260/.324/.381 in 455 plate appearances against the better competition. Unfortunately the progression has not continued with his promotion to Double-A. Through the first few weeks of the season, Rijo is hitting a meager .205/.255/.341, a considerable step back from his efforts at the lower levels. He is striking out more, walking less, and because of the low on-base percentage has not had a chance to employ his speed on the bases. We know he can be a threat, as he stole 15 bases last season (in 22 tries) and 16 the season before that (again in 22 tries), but as the old saying goes: you can’t steal first base. There is obviously no need for panic. It is still the early days of the season and Rijo has shown these same sorts of initial struggles when adapting to his new level in each of the last two seasons. He has time to adjust to the better pitching, continue honing his grasp on the strike zone and get back to hitting like he has in the past. Rijo is just 20-years old – quite young for Double-A – and with players ahead of him like Devon Marrero and Dustin Pedroia there is no need to push him through the system quickly.

In addition to having one of the best names in the Red Sox system, Teddy “STANK” Stankiewicz has been dominating hitters. In his three starts this season Stank has thrown 18.0 innings (an even 6.0 in each), allowed only two runs, 13 hits, one walk, and 16 strikeouts. Add all that up and you have a guy with a 1.00 ERA (1.53 FIP). Stank’s tremendous results so far are remarkably different from his 2015 season at High-A Salem. Last year he struggled to strike batters out, posting the lowest rate of his young career, and walked too many batters, posting the highest rate of his career. Together that is a bad combination and clearly contributed to his career high 4.01 ERA (4.03 FIP). While we only have three starts to judge him by this year, he appears to have cured what was ailing him in 2015. If he continues the dominance he has shown in the early going of the 2016 season he should end the season in Pawtucket, with an outside shot of being in Boston at some point in 2017.

High-A Salem: Jalen Beeks (LHP)

While Salem’s offense gets most of the attention, the pitching staff has a few players who have been performing at a really high level in the early going. One example is 22-year old, left-hander Jalen Beeks. Beeks has started three games for the Salem squad, posting 15.2 innings of one run ball. His 0.57 ERA is the fourth lowest mark among pitchers in High-A who have made at least three starts. It is worth noting that his fielding independent mark is much higher (2.53), which suggests he has had considerably good fortune in the early going. For example, his 95 percent left-on-base rate is not sustainable and we can expect that more of the baserunners he is allowing (almost seven per outing) will be coming around to score over his next few starts. Regardless, he has been a bright spot thus far.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Since we last checked in with him last week, Yoan Moncada has added six more hits (one double) and one walk to his season total, pushing his line to .350/.474/.483.

Andrew Benintendi has kept pace with Moncada, knocking out six hits in his last four games, four of which went for two-bases. His line is now at .333/.390/.623.

Rafael Devers has continued to struggle, going 1 (a single) for his last 11, walking twice and striking out three times. Hopefully he can get things headed in the right direction soon.

Low-A Greenville: Josh Ockimey (1B) and Austin Rei (C)

The Greenville Drive team can really hit. They have posted 5.67 runs per game over the first 18 games of the season. A major part of the team’s offense is first-baseman Josh Ockimey. Ockimey has already clubbed five home runs, which is tied with three other players for top mark in Low-A, and one more than he hit in 229 PA with Lowell in 2015. He has two doubles and a triple to go with those home runs, all together posting a .629 slugging percentage that is sixth highest among hitters with at least 50 PA. He can really mash. Even better news is that while he can clearly crush baseballs, he is not doing so at the expense of a wildly high strikeout rate. He has struck out 16 times but has impressively walked almost as many times (14). Of course we must recognize the South Atlantic League, in which the Drive play, tends to be favorable for hitters, but Ockimey’s early results are still excellent.

Surprisingly, the Drive’s offense has been as good as it has been despite a slow start from top-10 prospect Austin Rei. Rei did not hit well last season at Lowell (.179/.285/.295) and that has continued in 2016 at the next level. Through his first 52 trips to the plate, Rei has managed a .186/.327/.302 line. The on-base percentage is nice to see, but he is striking out twice as often as he is walking (12:6), which is really troubling. However, the top-10 ranking was not hinged on his offense, but rather his playing a premium position. The BP prospect team suggested that his defense was terrific and how he would provide value to the organization. It is impossible for me to comment on his defense without actually watching Rei over multiple games, but a concerning report at SoxProspects.com outlines his defense being much more variable than expected; combining excellent moments with an inability to catch pitches in the strike zone. These defensive issues could be due to lingering issues with a left-thumb ligament injury. If they continue, essentially tanking his standout tool, his prospect stock could fall dramatically.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Brian Johnson has been on the Fenway’s Future radar for the last couple of seasons. The big lefty is expected to provide the pitching depth the Red Sox will need over the course of another long season. Johnson did not earn a spot in the big league rotation in the spring, as he was limited by a sprained toe that forced him to miss a couple of weeks. The toe injury was costly, but the decision to start Johnson in Pawtucket is understandable given that he is also working his way back from a nerve-related elbow injury that abruptly ended his 2015 season. He was able to avoid surgery on his elbow but the Red Sox are still treating him carefully as they know the sort of asset he can be.

After missing time this spring, Johnson is still getting stretched out, so his starts have been shorter than is typical for an effective starter at the Triple-A level. Regardless, his two outings (4.0 and 5.1 innings, respectively) have been solid. He has allowed only three runs, given up 10 hits, struck out nine opponents and walked three (2.89 RA9, 3.66 FIP). While only two starts, these results suggest the effectiveness he showed at Pawtucket in 2015 remains, and now he needs to continue working up the necessary arm strength to remain effective deeper into games.

If Johnson continues to pitch as effectively as he has in the early going and shows that his elbow and toe issues are behind him, he could be pitching in Boston soon. Johnson and teammate Henry Owens have put themselves in a position to be the first ones called upon when a spot opens in the Red Sox rotation.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Through Monday’s games, Castillo has started four times, once at each of the outfield spots (and another in left field), posted a .375/.524/.438 line in 19 plate appearances, and has stolen three bases without getting caught. Simply put, things are looking much better for Rusney.

Swihart has started two games, both at catcher, and posted a .200/.200/.300 line in 10 PA. On the defensive side of things he has erased two of the four would-be base stealers who tested him.

Double-A Portland: Luis Ysla (LHP)

Last week, I noted that an area in which the Red Sox are thin is left-handed relief arms. With this in mind I suggested this could help Williams Jerez get on the fast track to the major league bullpen. The same is true for Jerez’s teammate, Luis Ysla. The Red Sox acquired Ysla from the San Francisco Giants late last season in exchange for Alejandro De Aza. Ysla pitched well in each of his first two season in the Giants system (172.1 innings, 3.13 RA9, 167:58 SO:BB) earning All-Star honors in both seasons. A promotion to High-A and move to the bullpen for the 2015 season affected his performance significantly. In 84.2 innings he allowed 60 runs! He did strike out more than one batter per inning (101) but still walked too many (43).

Despite the shaky results at High-A last season, the Red Sox have started Ysla at Double-A. Ysla throws hard, reportedly hitting 97mph this spring, and from his roots as a starter has a slider and changeup that can be effective. In four outings this year, Ysla has posted three scoreless appearances around one rough one in which he allowed all three of the runs he has surrendered this year; two coming on a home run to Colorado Rockies’  prospect David Dahl. Ysla is still doing his strike out thing this year, locking up four Ks in his five innings pitched, but has two walks, which is something he will need to focus on reducing if he is to earn another promotion.

High-A Salem: Nick Longhi (1B)

Nick Longhi, just 20-years old, is considered a tremendous hitter, perhaps one of the best in the Red Sox system, who reportedly possesses great power that has yet to show up in games, but is there. After posting a solid slash line at Low-A in 2015, he started the 2016 season on a tear. In his first three games he had a .417/.462/.500 line, but since then his output has declined considerably. Over his next eight games he has hit a measly .188/.229/.281. His primary issue thus far has been in the strikeout department. Longhi is striking out almost 10 percent more than he did at the lower levels, which is an indication that he is having trouble adjusting to the effectiveness of the pitching at the High-A level. It is still early – he only has 43 PA – so he still has plenty of opportunity to show that he can get back to performing more like he has in the past.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Yoan Moncada has a .333/.444/.528 line in his 46 PA, with seven steals (three times caught stealing).

Andrew Benintendi is hitting .326/.396/.651 in his 48 PA, with four doubles and five triples.

Rafael Devers has struggled to a .143/.268/.314 line in his 41 PA, but he has walked more times (6) than he has struck out (5), and is the only one of these three with a home run.

These guys are good.

Low-A Greenville: Roniel Raudes (RHP) and Jake Cosart (RHP)

Roniel Raudes is an exciting player who, at 18-years old, is really young for the Low-A level. However, Raudes does have 18-year old company on the Drive, as Red Sox’s top-pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza is also on the team. Despite being relatively unheralded, it is Raudes who has limited opponents to the greatest extent through two turns of the rotation. In his two starts (10 innings), Raudes has allowed only one run, given up seven hits, walked one and struck out nine. That is an excellent pitching line for this young man. Thus far, he is taking the challenge of the assignment to Low-A in stride. Raudes could be on the verge of a breakout this year, and could see a corresponding jump up the prospect rankings.

Coming out of the bullpen behind Raudes is 22-year old, righty Jake Cosart. Cosart is a converted outfielder and converted starter. In 2015, Cosart struggled as a starting pitcher while with short season Lowell (5.45 RA9, 5.15 FIP in 33.0 innings). Given his ability to throw hard – fastball typically sits in the mid-90s – the Red Sox decided to move him to the bullpen this spring and thus far the results have been better. Ten of the 28 batters he has faced have been retired by way of the strikeout, but he has had control issues, leading to four walks; one in each of his appearances. Cosart has been dominant in three of his four outings. In his three good outings (5.0 innings) he has allowed no runs and allowed only one hit. In the bad one he gave up four hits and two runs in just 1.1 innings. The conversion to life as a reliever is likely still a work in progress for Cosart, but the 3-good-to-1-bad outing ratio is a solid development in the early going.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Pat Light (RHP) and Henry Owens (LHP)

Despite not receiving the same amount of attention given to Boston’s top prospects, Pat Light could have an impact on the big-league team this season. Light throws hard – his fastball routinely reaches 95mph – but has had difficulty honing his secondary offerings, so the Red Sox shifted him to a relief role for 2015. He excelled as a reliever at Double-A, striking out 32 batters and walking 11 in 29.2 innings pitched. His next promotion, to his current level at Pawtucket, proved more trying. He still struck out plenty of batters (35 in 33.0 innings), but a lack of control or lower comfort against the better hitters led to 26 walks.

Heading into the offseason, Light knew he needed to prepare for life as a reliever, a first for him in his young career. He focused on developing a physical and mental routine to support pitching out of the bullpen and worked hard to improve his fastball control. Consistently locating his overpowering fastball will be a main focus in 2016 and help shape his secondary pitches (splitter, curveball, changeup) into more dangerous weapons – a combination that could help earn him a promotion to Boston later this year. If Carson Smith’s rehab takes longer than expected or something else unforeseen presents the Red Sox with a need in the bullpen, Light could be called upon. In his first action of the 2016 season this past weekend against Buffalo, Light completed a shaky inning of work, allowing two runs on two walks, and one hit, while striking out a batter. Based on this one outing, it seems like his control issues still loom.

We have already seen Henry Owens in Boston, as he made 11 starts for the Red Sox last season with uneven results. Nevertheless, he still represents an important part of the team’s future. Owens had a chance to grab a spot in Boston’s rotation this spring, but a generally poor showing (five starts, 13.1 innings, eight runs allowed, 14 strikeouts, nine walks) coupled with Steven Wright’s solid performance, left Owens ticketed for Pawtucket to start the year. He was given the honor of starting the PawSox’s opener last Friday and pitched very well (6.0 innings, no runs, one hit, eight strikeouts, and three walks). More lines like that will get Owens to Fenway sooner rather than later, or at least have him at the front of the line for promotion when an (inevitable) injury or prolonged struggle strikes someone in the Red Sox rotation. This is something of a make-or-break year for Owens’ career in Boston.

Double-A Portland: Williams Jerez (LHP)

An area in which the Red Sox organization is a wee-bit thin is left-handed relief arms. Beyond Robbie Ross Jr. and Tommy Layne, there is not much depth on the horizon, though this partially depends on the development plan for players like Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. Williams Jerez, a converted outfielder and Boston’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015, is an option to fill this lefty-reliever void. Jerez is still a work in progress but has shown an ability to pitch in relief that, with sustained success, could have him move through the system quickly.

He made 22 appearances for the Sea Dogs in 2015 (37.0 innings), finishing with a 3.65 RA9 and a 31-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio that will need improving. Cutting down on the walk rate will be an area of focus for Jerez this season. The good news is that in his two outings this season, he has yet to issue a walk, though he has given up two runs, including a homer, on four hits over his 3.1 innings. Jerez allowed only two home runs at Double-A in 2015, so hopefully this early-season dinger does not portend bad things to come.

High-A Salem: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

On a Salem Red Sox roster packed with potential stars of the future in Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, shortstop Mauricio Dubon may be less heralded, but he offers considerable upside. In fact, in BP’s write-up of the Red Sox system, Dubon was mentioned as “a real candidate to shoot up the list next year.” Able to play anywhere in the infield, Dubon has shown the contact skills and speed to post a decent offensive line, even if he lacks much in the way of power potential. In line with this suggestion, his opening weekend was excellent. He collected five hits (one triple), two walks and only struck out twice in his 18 trips to the plate. This season is Dubon’s second opportunity at the High-A level. He was promoted there midway through last season after beating up Low-A pitching to the tune of a .301/.354/.428 line. He took time to adjust to the pitching at the advanced level, posting a paltry .217/.287/.261 line over his first 131 PA, but then caught on and performed very well in his final 138 PA (.328/.397/.385). Having Dubon in the mix with the Moncada-Devers-Benintendi big three will make Salem a fun team to watch this season.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis (3B)

Last year, in his age-19 season, Chavis led all Red Sox minor leaguers with 16 home runs. Unfortunately, that tremendous power came with a major expense in strikeouts. Among players with at least 400 PA, Chavis finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (30.6%) at the Low-A level. When he makes contact, the ball tends to be hit hard and go far. Almost half of his 97 hits went for extra bases (29 doubles, one triple to go with the 16 bombs). He just needs to make contact more often to really cash in on the power he possesses. Being more selective at the plate and focusing on attacking quality pitches should help Chavis in this area; it should also drive up his lowly walk rate. Red Sox farm director Ben Crockett told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that the club wants Chavis to work not only on his approach at the plate, but also his defense.

For now, the 2014 first-round pick will be the Drive’s primary third baseman, but if his defense on the infield proves to be a limitation, then Chavis could be moved to a corner outfield spot. Regardless, in the early goings of the 2016 season, Chavis has been up to his usual tricks. In 15 PA for the Drive, he has six hits, two of which went for extra bases, three strikeouts and has yet to earn a walk. Hopefully the plate discipline tool develops as the season progresses. At 20-years-old, Chavis is still young for the level, so he has time to make the necessary adjustments and earn advancement through the system.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Matt Barnes (RHP) and Marco Hernandez (SS)

The future is now for Matt Barnes. The Red Sox have announced that he will take the ball tonight against the Indians in place of the injured Steven Wright. We have seen Barnes pitch at Fenway Park this season, but it was as a reliever and, to be frank, it did not go well (6.45 RA9, 5.84 FIP, -7.18 RE24). In his last stint with the big league club he made six appearances out of the bullpen before being demoted back to Pawtucket, where he continued pitching in a relief role. However, about a month ago the Sox decided to stretch him out for work as a starter, hoping to have him reestablish some sense of comfort by implementing his changeup on a more consistent basis. Since the decision was made Barnes has made three extended relief appearances – although performance made one of them a short outing – and two starts, and while the results have been lacking (4.41 RA9, 4.70 FIP, 12/11 K/BB), reports from Red Sox player development have been positive. The Red Sox are suggesting that they view Barnes as a starter and think he is capable of being a productive major league rotation member; something the team is desperately without. With all this in mind, it seems like a safe bet that Barnes will get an opportunity in the rotation for the Red Sox in September.

Marco Hernandez was acquired by the Red Sox in the deal with the Chicago Cubs that sent Felix Doubront to the windy city last summer. He opened this year at Double-A Portland and mashed his way to a promotion in mid-July. Hernandez is not known for his bat, and his numbers at Portland were well outside of what he had shown in his time at the lower levels of the minor leagues. For example, in 2014 at High-A Daytona he slashed .270/.315/.351 with a .328 BABIP, which amounts to a .246 TAv. But in Portland he slashed .326/.349/.482 with a .382 BABIP, all good for a .287 TAv. There is no doubt that the jump in BABIP contributed to his better numbers, but he was also knocking more extra base hits (23 in 122 games at High-A, 30 in 68 games at Double-A), so there was a chance he had figured something out. Since being promoted to Triple-A his production has been more in line with his A-ball numbers, which undoubtedly represents progress given that he is now facing higher caliber pitching. But, it also provides evidence that the great offensive numbers he posted in Portland were likely anomalous. In his 101 plate appearances for Pawtucket he has slashed .258/.277/.381, his BABIP is down to .329, and he only has six extra base hits. Hernandez has had difficulty with plate discipline, having struck out in one quarter of his trips to the plate while only earning a walk three times. Hernandez has a few more weeks to continue his adjustment to the new level. His performance the rest of the way and the Red Sox’s offseason transactions (e.g., a trade involving Devon Marrero) will determine the level at which he is slotted to start the 2016 season.

Double-A Portland: Carlos Asuaje (2B) and Justin Haley (RHP)

Carlos Asuaje is another undersized middle infielder that the Red Sox have found to provide considerable production. He has primarily played second base for the Sea Dogs this season, but has also seen time at third base. Despite his size (he is listed at 5’9”) he looks to be an offensive threat. Across Low- and High-A in 2014, he posted a .310/.395/.528 line, knocking 15 balls out of the yard and showing tremendous discipline at the plate (92/62 K/BB). This season in Portland, while he still hitting better than league average, his numbers have come down a lot from where he was at the lower levels. Some of this drop is expected given the change in level and the advanced pitching and defense that comes with it, but his reduction is considerable. One clear example is in his power numbers. This season he is only slugging .367 with a .117 isolated power. Despite this, he has maintained his advanced ability to make contact and be disciplined at the plate, as is evidenced by his 73/52 K/BB ratio. This is a really positive attribute to see in a player struggling with other aspects of his game; he is not expanding the strike zone to try and make things happen. If Asuaje can get back to hitting for some more power, that, and his defensive versatility, will help him advance toward a major league utility role.

At the end of 2014, Justin Haley made six starts for Portland and pitched pretty well (1.19 RA9, 3.73 FIP). By some measures that performance has not transferred to 2015, as he has a 5.61 RA9, and 3.79 FIP. So his peripherals, as well at least one fielding independent measure, suggests that he has been basically the same guy despite the wild difference in his runs allowed average. Much of this can be explained by the fact that in 2014 he held a ridiculous 95.1 percent strand rate, a mark that has dropped to 64.7 percent this season. Relative to 2014, on a rate basis he has allowed more runners on base and more have come around to score. Some of the base runner issue is BABIP, as 2015 represents the high water mark for Haley’s opponents’ BABIP by a considerable margin, so there is some bad luck involved here. On the whole, this season has presented a challenge for Haley in that he probably feels like he is pitching in much the same way he has previously, but is not getting the same results, which has to be incredibly frustrating. His last outing was easily the best of his season results-wise (7.0 innings, one hit, no runs, no walks, six strikeouts), so hopefully he can build on it over his remaining starts.

High-A Salem: Ty Buttrey (RHP)

The season-to-date statistics for Ty Buttrey at High-A Salem look fairly impressive: 17 starts, 94.2 innings pitched, 4.09 RA9, 3.34 FIP. The odd thing for Buttrey this season is that he seems to consistently string together a few starts in which he only allows one run, but then has a blowup outing where he allows five or more (Eduardo Rodriguez nods sadly). On the season he has nine starts in which he has allowed fewer than two runs, but then has four starts in which he has allowed four or more runs. Taken together he has been bimodal, albeit more good than bad. He has posted a decent 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and only allowed two home runs, both of which are strong signs for his future. Avoiding the periodic blowup start will be important for Buttrey’s future, but even with the rough outings considered he has probably pitched well enough to earn a promotion to Portland for next season.

Low-A Greenville: Yoan Moncada (2B)

Through his first 34 games (162 plate appearances) Yoan Moncada was clearly struggling to adjust to his new surroundings. He had a .229/.311/.321 slashline, with only one home run and nine stolen bases in nine attempts. Over his next 30 games (122 PA) Moncada has shown why the Red Sox invested so much in him. He has posted a .333/.431/.545 slashline with five home runs and 26 stolen bases in 29 attempts. Those are extremely impressive numbers, and likely have many clamoring to rush him up through the system. But Moncada still has a lot to learn. For example he will need to demonstrate a stronger command on the strike zone. He is striking out too often (22.5 K%), as he continues to adjust to hitting breaking pitches. His defense, which could be a plus tool, is also a work in progress as he gets more consistent reps. Moncada is an exciting player who has a long way to go before reaching Boston.

Short Season-A Lowell: Andrew Benintendi (CF)

We don’t usually write about players below Greenville, but the Red Sox’s first pick in the 2015 draft is worth mentioning given his remarkable performance to date. Benintendi has played in 34 games for the Spinners, accumulated 147 plate appearances and done real damage in his chances. He has seven home runs, four triples and two doubles, which is an odd distribution of extra base hits but provides an early indication of the combination of power and speed he possesses. To go with that power-speed combination, Benintendi has shown tremendous plate discipline, walking 25 times and only striking out 15 times. Like Moncada, Benintendi is a player for the Red Sox who has a lot of potential and a lot to learn before reaching Boston. Things are quite bright at the lower levels. [Editor’s note: Rumor is Benintendi is headed to Greenville. Woot!]

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, and Pat Light, RHP

It might seem odd that Jackie Bradley Jr. is still on a list of Fenway’s Future players, but that is the case as he has remained at Pawtucket despite a need for him in Boston. The reason for keeping Bradley Jr. in the minor leagues is unclear, though last week Bryan Grosnick outlined several potential motives. Regardless, he is still playing everyday at Pawtucket, and playing very well. It is no secret that Bradley Jr.’s primary issue in his limited stints in the major leagues has been hitting. In his 543 major league plate appearances, almost a whole season’s worth, he has a .192/.266/.273 line, which equates to a .203 TAv. It was never anticipated that he would be a star at the plate, but that line is ugly. What makes the matter really puzzling is that through 631 plate appearances at Triple-A he had a .286/.362/.445 line, which is roughly a .301 TAv. The jump to the major leagues is a big one, but that drastic a change in performance seems odd. Still, it really seems like Bradley Jr. does not have much more to learn at the minor league level.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox appear to have seen enough of him flailing away at the major league level and intend on keeping him in Pawtucket for the foreseeable future. He is the best defensive outfielder in the organization and maybe in the game, but cannot break through with the bat to hold a major league roster spot. Now, while he does not have much to learn at Triple-A, keeping him there could be part of an effort to make him look shiny to potential trade partners, or part of a longer term plan of getting him ready for a spot in the major league outfield in 2016. Shane Victorino will be out of the mix next year but things will still be crowded with Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Hanley Ramirez all likely to keep their spots.

Pat Light is moving up the ranks.

While Bradley Jr. is having trouble earning a promotion, Pat Light was promoted from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Pawtucket last week. Light’s move to the bullpen has served as a catalyst for his ascent through the minor leagues. Earlier this year I checked in on Light when he had struck out a third of the 27 batters. Well, not much has changed in his performance over the next 91. He posted a 27.1 strikeout rate for Portland, allowing fewer than one runner to reach base per inning pitched, and that is even with difficulty in walking batters (9.3 walk rate). Reports are that he has ditched his main secondary pitches in favor of his splitter, which mixed with his mid-90s fastball has been very effective. If Light can maintain his velocity and effectiveness in Pawtucket he may be due for a promotion to the big leagues later this year. The major league team could use a hard-throwing reliever who can work some of the 6^th and 7^th innings ahead of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. That pitcher could also come in the form of Joe Kelly and his 96 mile-an-hour fastball, but the Sox seem content to keep trying him as a starter, so help in the ‘pen will need to come from elsewhere.

Double-A Portland: Oscar Tejeda, IF/OF

Of the players with at least 100 plate appearances for the Sea Dogs, Tejeda is the fourth best hitter by wRC+ (111). He has spent time in the Red Sox, Pirates, and Nationals organizations, getting all the way to Triple-A in the Pirates system in 2013. His .304/.328/.415 line in 180 PA this year in Portland is impressive, but is really a bit of an outlier for him at the double-A level, as he has previously posted seasons of 75 wRC+, 76, and 39 (in 492, 221, and 57 PA, respectively). On his fourth trip through the level, at age 25, he seems to have figured things out a bit, but as I said it is the clear outlier and there is still time for our old friend regression to take hold of things. With all that said, it is not his bat that makes Tejeda interesting, it is his positional versatility. At Baseball Prospectus he is listed as a left fielder, at FanGraphs he is listed as a second baseman/shortstop, and at MiLB.com he is listed as a third baseman. The lack of consistent listing reflects how he has moved around this season in Portland. According to the lineups posted at SoxProspects.com he has started two games at short, 19 at third, 11 in left field, and six in right field. If he is going to get a ticket to the big leagues it will be due to this ability to play defense all over the diamond, although even with that a future major league roster spot seems unlikely.

High-A Salem: Manuel Margot, OF, Trey Ball, LHP, and Williams Jerez, LHP

Margot is a top-five prospect in the Red Sox system with all five tools, already earning the ‘honor’ of being mentioned in many Cole Hamels trade rumours. His season has been of the up and down sort. In April he posted an .891 OPS, and avoided striking out in his first 69 plate appearances. Then May rolled around and Margot’s performance went down with it, posting a .310 OPS in 37 plate appearances. Some of this downturn was likely a result of the shoulder injury that eventually landed him on the disabled list for the last few weeks of May. The good news is that since returning from the DL he has been back to his April ways at the plate (.870 OPS so far in June). He has yet to draw a walk since coming back, which is problematic, but he is still striking out at a wonderfully low rate (4.3%).

The Red Sox had the seventh overall pick in the 2015 first-year player draft that was held last Monday, a spot at which they picked in the 2013 draft when they selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball from New Castle Chrysler High School in Indiana. Unfortunately, thus far Ball has not lived up to his status as a first-round pick. In 100.0 innings at Low-A Greenville last year, he had a 4.68 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and a less than exciting 68:39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite the rough year at Low-A he was advanced to High-A to start this season, and things have not gone much better. In 58.2 innings this year he has a 3.99 ERA, 5.02 FIP, with an ugly 37:25 K:BB. In fact, he has walked more batters than he has struck out in four of his 11 starts, but struck out nine and only walked two in his most recent start, which is hopefully a step in the right direction. Overall, not a lot has gone well for Mr. Ball. At 21 he is still somewhat young for the level, but this is not at all the sort of thing that the organization wants to see from a top-level draft pick.

Williams Jerez is an interesting story, as he does not come to pitching naturally, but rather is a converted outfielder. After struggling to hit in his first three seasons in the Red Sox system, Jerez became a pitcher in 2014 and his potential future now looks brighter. In 2014, between rookie ball and short season A-ball, he struck out 40 of the 150 batters he faced, only allowed 14 runs, and did not allow a home run. He started this year at low-A Greenville, pitched 39.1 excellent innings (2.06 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 43:10 K:BB), and recently earned himself a promotion to a Salem. Given that Jerez is still new to pitching – he only has 77.0 innings under his belt – it should not be a real surprise that he is still a work in progress. His best bet to advance through the system is as a reliever where he can rear back and fire his mid-90s fastball most of the time and avoid needing to develop command of secondary pitches and the ability to navigate through a lineup multiple times. His progress is worth tracking.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B

Rafael Devers is an impressive young player.

The Greenville team has a number of interesting players, and chief among them is 18-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers, in his first season of A-ball after crushing things in rookie ball, has been tremendous with the bat. Through his first 200 plate appearances he was hitting .321/.354/.455, with 18 extra-base hits. While he is only walking in 4.5% of his plate appearances, which is a huge drop from the rate he had in rookie ball, he is hitting well enough and for enough power that the lack of walks is not really affecting his value. He will need to demonstrate more of a command on the strike zone as he progresses through the system, or it will stall his advancement. For now, though, he can just focus on continuing to dominate his older opponents.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Instead, the Dominican Republic native is the midst of his first full season of professional baseball, and his performance at the plate so far in 2015 belies his youth and inexperience. Signed to a $1.5 million bonus at the age of 16 back in 2013, Devers was viewed as one of the top hitters in that year’s international signing class.

Less than two seasons into his pro career, his bat has done all the talking.

Off the back of an impressive debut in 2014, the Red Sox assigned Devers to Low-A Greenville, where he entered the season as the fourth-youngest player in the South Atlantic League. The aggressive assignment hasn’t stopped Devers from hitting, just as he always has.

Through 31 games for Greenville, Devers is batting .325/.354/.480 with 14 extra-base hits against competition that is generally two or three years his elder. After a relatively modest start at the plate, Devers has consistently crushed the ball in May, hitting safely in 10 of 14 contests and recording multi-hit games on seven occasions.

That he has yet to test his skills against upper-minors competition is really the only reason Devers isn’t talked about more on the national scene. Back in the spring, the BP prospect team ranked him 90th overall on its list of baseball’s Top 101 prospects, and Devers came in at No. 5 on the Red Sox list. Now that Blake Swihart has graduated to the majors, Devers probably stands as the best pure bat among Boston’s minor leaguers.

Prior to the season, Chris Mellen provided a good summary of just how much potential Devers has offensively:

“There’s a lot to like here, especially with the potential middle-of-the-order power the 18-year-old can grow into. His swing already shows the ability to drive offerings with carry and tap into the lower body strength. The ease with which the third baseman creates bat speed jumps out as well, along with how the swing unfolds to power the ball to all fields. The raw offensive tools point to a bat that can be special if the secondary skills progress with experience.”

Simply put, Devers is a special talent, with the type of offensive instincts and precocious ability that can’t be taught. Given his early-season success, it’s fair to say that he’ll rank a good deal higher on BP’s midseason list, and he might just become one of the three best prospects in the Red Sox system before long.

The biggest drawback with Devers is that all his value is tied up with how he develops at the plate. He’ll never be an elite defender at third base (an eventual move to first might be a more realistic scenario anyhow), and he’ll never impact the game with his feet. As a result, he’ll have to prove his bat is indeed elite at every stop up the minor league ladder, which will only grow more challenging the higher he climbs. Devers certainly wouldn’t be the first highly touted young hitter to excel against low-level pitching before seeing his weaknesses exposed against increasingly tougher competition.

But considering just how well he is performing at the age of 18, the magnitude of Devers’ offensive promise is hard to overstate. He feels like one of those players who just knows how to hit, no matter how much more experienced the competition is. With Yoan Moncada now playing in Greenville (not to mention 2014 first-round pick Michael Chavis), the Red Sox have two premier offensive talents who are just beginning to scratch the surface of their vast potential.

With the scarcity of offense in today’s game, prospects like Devers and Moncada have become that much more valuable, and their development will be key to Boston’s future. Spending over $150 million on the likes of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval won’t be possible every offseason, and grooming cost-controlled hitters who have the potential to grow into middle-of-the-order bats has only grown more vital in an era when pitching is so dominant. One need only to look at Theo Epstein’s Cubs to see the value of young position players who can mash.

At this point, Devers is a far cry from having the type of impact that Chicago’s youngsters look likely to make. He’ll have to continue to prove himself with each successive promotion against opposing pitchers who will always be older than him.

Nevertheless, he’s the type of offensive talent any player development staff wants to get its hands on, and the kind of special prospect that fans wait years to catch a glimpse of in their club’s major league uniform. Devers with the Red Sox isn’t assured by any means, but he has youth and a clear ability to hit on his side.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor, http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/