Pomeranz started the season on the disabled list, as he suffered a forearm flexor strain in mid-March. He returned on April 20th, after a couple sub-par rehab outings in Triple-A, to pitch against the Oakland Athletics. It wasn’t a glorious return — Pomeranz lasted 3.2 innings, allowed three runs, and didn’t look like he had much of his command or his normal velocity. Since then, he’s been… well, the best description of his 2018 season is a dejected shrug. He’s been fairly unremarkable ever since, and at times his starts have been the visual equivalent of someone dragging their nails across a chalkboard. It should come as no surprise that his next start, which would’ve been today, was pushed back to Saturday against the Atlanta Braves.

Last year, I wrote about how Drew Pomeranz is an underrated pitcher, and how he was much better than people perceived him to be. He turned in a solid 2.6 WARP in 2017, and was more or less a constant in a rotation that had Chris Sale, the bad version of Rick Porcello, and the occasional good start from Doug Fister. In 2018, he’s been anything but, the far-and-away worst starter currently in the rotation, and looking solely at results thus far, the worst starter the Red Sox have, period.

You’d expect some rust coming back from a forearm injury, sure, but he’s had six starts in the majors so far, and he’s looked like a mess. The velocity loss is the most notable sign, as it’s nowhere close to where it was last year.

Apart from the changeup, which isn’t one of his main pitches, everything’s a good two to three mph slower than his norms. It’s more than a bit concerning, especially for a guy with Pomeranz’s injury record.

But he keeps on pitching, sharply diminished velocity and all, and both he and the Red Sox insist he’s health. If you’re a devout pessimist like me, this looks like a perfect, eminently frustrating storm combining a potentially scary injury and deep-seated distrust of the Red Sox medical staff, who have had a near-annual debacle concerning an injured player and their ability to play. While a forearm issue isn’t as scary as something like a shoulder, it could be a prelude to something like a UCL injury in his elbow. Thankfully, it wasn’t, but that doesn’t solve the mystery of the missing velocity or his mediocre production.

Again, both parties say he’s fit as a fiddle. But it does put the Red Sox in a little bit of a bind. As he is now, Pomeranz is a serviceable number four in any rotation, but that’s not how Pomeranz had been pitching the last two seasons, and it’s not like he’s at the far right side of the aging curve — he’s just 29 years old.  They can’t conceivably take him out of the rotation either, since that means giving either Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson starts, and even with the success they’ve had coming out of the bullpen (and starting this year), having them start for an extended amount of time is asking for trouble. I’m not talking 2011 bad, where the Red Sox ran out guys like Kyle Weiland and an awful, definitely-injured John Lackey down the stretch, but bad enough where you’d actually want this version of Drew Pomeranz to stay. A Pomeranz that resembles anything like last season’s iteration makes this rotation fearsome. The current version downgrades the rotation to simply spooky. Still really good, but not great.

Fortunately, there might be light at the end of the tunnel. Pomeranz told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that he might’ve found and potentially fixed what had been the cause of his awfulness. This isn’t the first time he’s had a dramatic uptick in production after a mechanical change — in mid-May of last year, he mentioned everything finally starting to click after a start that month, and went on to be the second-best starter in that rotation. It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that everything changes on Saturday, but, against my better judgement, it does get my hopes up.

There’s nothing that can be done until we see how he does on Saturday. If he’s good, all of this is just water under the bridge. If not, and he’s seemingly corrected that mechanical problem, the concern will start to grow. Pomeranz says he’s healthy, and the Red Sox have given him the green light to pitch. So until anything changes — for better or worse — we’ve just got to wait and see, and hope Pomeranz is better than this.

Header photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

With the Red Sox, the potential bounce-back storylines are obvious. Will David Price pitch to his peripherals? What in the hell was Fernando Abad’s 2016, and will 2017 be any different? And the elephant in the room: what is Pablo Sandoval going to give us?

After going under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, all Sandoval has done is garner rave reviews about his rehab and fitness programs. He’s dropped tens of pounds, he’s eating healthier, and he’s been at the Red Sox’s Ft. Myers facility since August, presumably. With all the buzz surrounding a slimmer Sandoval, the hype is slowly working its way up about what he could do once he returns. He’s not going to rack up four-win seasons again, that’s for sure, but you can be pretty confident in saying that he won’t be as bad as his 2015 season ended up being.

PECOTA agrees with me on that last sentiment. This is what it sees for his 2017:

In terms of possible outcomes, that’s the center of the bell curve, the least extreme result and the one most likely to happen. That projection was pessimistic about his fielding, giving him a -2 FRAA, which isn’t surprising. Throughout his career, his defensive metrics have been all over the map, and he’ll also be 30 years old come Opening Day. Defense tends to spike early on in a player’s career then gradually get worse, and with Sandoval being the Jekyll & Hyde defender that he is, you can’t count on positive returns in that area at his age.

The offense looks to be the key to his comeback, as even a .260 TAv is 14 points better than both Travis Shaw’s and Brock Holt’s 2016 TAv. The power will be about the same, but PECOTA thinks Sandoval will hit for a better average and take more walks than those two. The VORP seems low, but that’s exactly the same as what all the Red Sox third basemen combined for in 2016. BWARP is probably his harshest critic, as the 2016 hot corner battalion cranked out 2.2 BWARP and the projection barely gives him a quarter of that. That’s mostly attributed to fielding, however.

The putrid production from the hot corner last year is the floor for Sandoval. It’ll be tough to be worse than that. But the creeping suspicion still remains: he could also be as bad as 2015. Thankfully, PECOTA doesn’t add fuel to that fire. What we’ve got to understand is how bad 2015 was, and the best way to show it is to compare it to PECOTA’s tenth percentile outcome – alternatively known as the extremely bad result:

If it takes the really terrible outcome to replicate Sandoval’s worst season, I think he’ll be alright. Acceptable, even.

It shouldn’t be very hard to get more production out of third base this year than last year. The Red Sox were dead last in OPS by third basemen in 2016, and it wasn’t particularly close. The second-worst team at the position, the Cincinnati Reds, coughed up a .701 OPS. The Red Sox? A whopping .685 mark. As fun as two months of Baseball Annihilator Travis Shaw was, it was those other months that brought him way down, and no one else really stopped the bleeding at the third – not Brock Holt, not Marco Hernandez, and certainly not Aaron Hill, who looked pretty pumpkin-like during his time in Boston.

It goes without saying that if you’re going to hype up a Panda bounce-back, you need the context. The Red Sox desperately need something to come out of the black hole at third base, and anything Sandoval can give will go a long way to replacing some of the production David Ortiz cranked out. The projections think that he’ll do that, and it’s not unlikely that he’ll do so. He’s a better option than anything the Red Sox have, which is now Brock Holt (who was bad last year and shouldn’t play a full season), Marco Hernandez (solid but a better bench bat than anything), Josh Rutledge (ew), and Deven Marrero (audibly dry heaves). You could make an argument for Holt, but if that argument consists of “hustle and grit” remarks, no one wants to hear it.

If Sandoval looks to shoot for better than that 50th percentile projection, there are a couple of things that could bring a better-than-expected result to him. Matt Collins wrote about Sandoval in October on these web pages, and while he did note that being better with the glove could help, it’s not something to expect from him. The biggest improvement would have to be made to his plate discipline. A reduction in strikeouts and a  newfound improvement in his walk rate would go a long way to a great comeback for Sandoval. He’s a free swinger, and takes hacks at pitches even Vlad Guerrero would lay off, so a modest improvement would do wonders. It’s unlikely, but for a player that drastically needs a career revival, that would be a nice place to start. Not everyone will have a comeback on the level of 2013 John Lackey.

A huge turnaround isn’t unheard of – especially in Boston – and when the bar’s set this low, you don’t need one. Sandoval just needs to play. He doesn’t need to be flashy, doesn’t need to be exciting, he just needs to give us anything better than the carnage we’ve seen. Keep the hype levels low, ignore the Best Shape Of His Life reports, and expect some modestly acceptable baseball from Pablo Sandoval. It’s all we can really ask for, and it’s what PECOTA thinks he’ll give.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

As much as we, as fans, have tried to push him out of our minds during this season filled with fun, he’s almost back. I’ll get more into this just a little bit later, but I think it’s fair to say the chances of Sandoval being dealt are slim to none. The other internal third base options, Travis Shaw and Yoan Moncada, both have enough questions marks to justify giving Sandoval a shot. The former struggled for most of the season after supplanting Sandoval in the spring and getting off to a red-hot start. The latter did not look comfortable at the plate in the Majors and is likely ticketed for Pawtucket to start the season.

That leaves Sandoval, who obviously has his own question marks but also has more of a track record than the other internal options. If we’re being honest with ourselves, his forecast for 2017 is not great. However, we’ve been down this road before, and it’s worked out in the past.

Travel back with me to April 2013. The Harlem Shake was a thing for some reason. Blurred Lines was being played everywhere on Earth. Yours truly was just about to graduate college. John Lackey was coming back to the mound for the Red Sox after missing all of 2012 on the disabled list. We all know what ended up happening that season, but it’s easy to forget the outlook we had on everything before the year began. Lackey was arguably the most hated athlete in Boston. He was viewed as massively overpaid, having been disappointing (but actually not terrible) in 2010 then completely falling on his face in 2011. Obviously, 2012 was a season to forget, but in the eyes of many, there was a silver-lining in not being forced to watch Lackey.

Then, he turned around the perception of himself in 2013. It’s fair to assume the injury had something to do with his struggles in 2011. Taking some time out of the negative spotlight probably didn’t hurt, either. Lackey looked like a totally new man after his year off, upping his strikeout rate to prime-levels while showing off control he had never shown before. He quickly changed his perception in the city and was a major reason the Red Sox won the World Series.

Sandoval is itching for a similar turnaround in narrative. Heading into next year, Sandoval is in a similar position to 2012 Lackey. He doesn’t have the extra disappointing year mixed in, but he did have a little time to disappoint us at the start of 2016. He didn’t have a hit in seven plate appearances before hitting the DL, and more importantly, this happened. After that debacle, it’s fair to say his Q-Rating was at an all-time low. After missing the rest of the season, Sandoval is now ready to take his 2013 Lackey step forward. How can he do it?

The best model to go by is that Lackey model. In other words, Sandoval can bounce back if he regains his old form in one area (a la Lackey’s strikeouts) while reaching new heights in another (the walks). For Sandoval, there are two options for the first category. For starters, he could certainly use some improvement on the defensive side of things. After spending his Giants career as a surprisingly solid third baseman, he was terrible in 2015 with the Red Sox. Both the eye test and all of the defensive metrics we have access to back up this point. Of course, given his age and body type, one can’t expect too much improvement here.

The other option is getting back on track with his BABIP. His offensive success in San Francisco always came on the back of average or better BABIPs. With Boston, Sandoval only hit .270 on balls in play, far and away the worst mark of his career. He was pounding the ball into the ground too often, and he clearly doesn’t have the speed to beat out infield singles. If he can get back to his line drive-oriented swing, one can see him pushing .320 BABIPs once again.

The other side of this, developing a new skillset, is yet another page he can take from Lackey’s book. While the pitcher started limiting free passes at a career-high rate, Sandoval would do well to start drawing more walks. Obviously, this goes against who he’s always been as a hitter, as his aggressiveness is one of his calling cards. However, if anyone is in a position to drastically change his profile, it’s a player who just lost an entire season and is in desperate need of a narrative shift.

Sandoval consistently gets low zone rates, because pitchers know he’ll swing at everything. If he can find a way to fight his instincts, he’ll draw walks early on in the year just because pitchers haven’t adjusted yet. Again, this is likely wishful thinking, but it’s a change that could dramatically improve his overall production at the plate.

The bad news for Red Sox fans is that Lackey-like transformations don’t happen often. For every one of those, there’s a Carl Crawford who never turns it around. The good news is that Boston has had a good track record with this of late, as both Rick Porcello and Hanley Ramirez could qualify to some extent. Still, Lackey is the most extreme example, and there are some real parallels between the start of his Red Sox career and Sandoval’s. With third base currently a question mark, it would do everyone a world of good if Sandoval can continue those parallels.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

By WARP, Sandoval was worth -1.38 wins in 2015, making him the seventh-worst player in all of baseball by that metric. Part of that was him hitting badly, and that could have been tolerated if not condoned in the first season of a five-year deal. Players have bad seasons at the plate sometimes, and especially so following signing big contracts, but most damning was that his ability to play third base competently disappeared. He had little ability to move around in the field and for the first time looked like he couldn’t handle the position.

Yesterday, Ben Carsley looked at dealing Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo, two players who, as he put it, amount to $129 million in dead money. The problem is since both players are owed a ton of cash and as neither is, at this point, any good at baseball, they’re not desirable to other teams either, even should the Red Sox pay most or all of their salaries. Castillo has been sent to Triple-A so presumably he should get at-bats. Maybe he figures it out and turns his obvious physical tools into on-the-field success. I won’t be holding my breath, but you never know. Sandoval is a different and, if you’ll forgive me, bigger problem. If he’s not going to play third base there’s no real place for him to play (he’s not going to Triple-A), and if he’s not going to start and he’s not good enough to hit or play defense, he’s not going to get a chance to improve, let alone to prove he’s improved.

Since both Castillo and Sandoval are owed a ton of cash and as neither is, at this point, any good at baseball, they’re not desirable to other teams either, even should the Red Sox pay most or all of their salaries.

However, it’s possible to imagine a player with Sandoval’s past becoming a decent player again. In fact, I’d bet on Sandoval to post more value in the future than Castillo simply because Sandoval has actually done it before. What’s more, he’s just 29 years old, so age isn’t a problem for him. At least not yet. 

There’s an elephant in the room though, and it’s Sandoval’s weight. The Red Sox reportedly don’t approve of his size and shape, fearing it to be one of the main culprits of his diminished on-field capacity. Anecdotally it looks that way, but I don’t know so it’s not fair for me to comment. What I can say though is that players in similar positions as Sandoval have turned their careers around in the past. Red Sox fans will remember John Lackey, the starting pitcher who, after signing in Boston, stunk. Of course he stunk because the inside of his arm was shredded, and after missing a season for Tommy John surgery he returned and was fantastic, helping the team to their third World Series win in a decade. After Lackey’s second season in Boston though, not many thought he would ever see a major-league mound again, let alone be a major cog in a World Series winning rotation. 

Lackey’s problem wasn’t weight, it was injury, but there was something else that makes him similar to Sandoval: attitude. Sandoval has publicly displayed a good attitude, saying the right things about his situation, but behind the scenes he’s reportedly strongly resisted losing weight. Lackey was difficult in a different way but neither endeared themselves to the fans through their actions. But by the end of his Red Sox contract Lackey was, if not a fan favorite, then at least a player who the fans actively liked. That same transformation isn’t impossible for Sandoval to make either. Like with Lackey though, it’ll take a tremendous amount of work, both on the field as well as off. 

Maybe a more direct example is Mo Vaughn, who signed with the Angels after a contract dispute with the Red Sox. Boston had wanted to include a weight clause in his contract as well as some other things he didn’t like and Vaughn, having spent the last five or so seasons being offended by the Red Sox front office, decided enough was enough. The moral here is a bit different though, because after two uninspired seasons in Anaheim, Vaughn was traded to the New York Mets. In the end neither locale worked well for the mercurial star and he was essentially done as a good player after his age-29 season in 1999, though he kept playing for parts of three more seasons. (Incidentally, the year after that, Vaughn hit .272/.365/.498, and with bad defense at first base, that was worth 0.4 WARP. That’s because the average hitter in 2000 hit .270/.345/.437.)

Listen to David Ortiz talk about what he has to do to stay in shape now that he’s 40. It’s a huge reason he’s retiring after this season.

While Lackey shows that sometimes players do return to their former glory, Vaughn stands as more of a cautionary tale. The ex-Sox star suffered through injuries and weight-related issues later in his career, all the while giving off the public perception that he was too proud to do much about them. The thing is, while a 25-year-old player can play certain positions overweight and excel at them, things catch up to you pretty quickly as you hit 30. Vaughn found that out. I suspect Sandoval is learning it now too. 

Listen to David Ortiz talk about what he has to do to stay in shape now that he’s 40. It’s a huge reason he’s retiring after this season. It’s not that he can’t play anymore, it’s that, after all he’s accomplished, he’s not willing to do what it takes to stay ready to contribute at his extremely high level anymore. After a while it just becomes too hard and the calculus no longer works.

Sandoval may yet be traded or even released, but whether he realizes it or not, there’s no reason to expect things to be different in another city. If Pablo Sandoval can’t play in Boston because of his size and the resulting lack of mobility, there’s no reason to think he can play in Detroit or San Diego or anywhere else. The field is the same, the player is the same, and the results will be the same. If Sandoval were to take his conditioning more seriously and get down to a reasonable weight it seems likely he would at least be able to field his position. It’s harder to say whether or not his hitting ability would return. The chances of that happening though, well… I was going to say they aren’t great, but actually I don’t know. I don’t think anyone knows. Oh, well, one guy. Pablo Sandoval is the only one who can turn his career around.

 Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The baseball season is over, and as it falls into history, the new season steps forward to take its place. This process is essentially instantaneous. The Red Sox went from nothing during the playoffs and World Series to the center of the baseball world in a single click of a second hand. Boston is in the unique position of having a stacked farm system, a talent-laden roster, and a GM who had no part in assembling any of it. As such, he’s not nearly as attached to the players in Boston now, thus making it much easier for him to make them players who used to be in Boston. Dave Dombrowski is here to shake things up.

While there is likely to be much wheeling and dealing, the free agent market hangs over Boston’s head like an axe at a beheading. The reason is simple: the last two Red Sox general managers (generals manager?) lost their job due to their failures in the market.

In 2011 John Lackey was coming off his first season in Boston, a 2010 season that saw him throw 215 innings of 4.40 ERA baseball. His strikeouts dipped and his walks jumped. But improvement was expected! It was then not delivered. In fact, Lackey was even worse, throwing 160 innings with an ERA of 6.41 before getting shut down for Tommy John surgery. Lackey had been GM Theo Epstein’s big addition to the pitching staff and now it looked like the Red Sox would pay Lackey three seasons worth of top-of-the-rotation money for a bit under two seasons of awful pitching. What’s more, had Lackey been anywhere near good the Red Sox would have made the playoffs instead of missing in excruciating fashion on the last day of the season.

Then there was Carl Crawford. Crawford showed up to Boston with a new seven year $142 million contract having forgotten how to hit and field. In April Crawford hit .155/.204/.227 and there was no looking back. He wasn’t exactly horrible with the bat after that though he wasn’t fantastic either, but he the overall appearance was a shell of the player who had played All Star-caliber baseball in Tampa just the season before. This was Theo Epstein’s big addition to the offense. Then Crawford got hurt, which, purely from an on-field standpoint, was probably for the best. It was those failures along with some others that signaled the end of Epstein’s time in Boston and with him fellow 2004 hero manager Terry Francona.

Epstein was the GM who had ended the curse not once, but twice. He’d bested the Yankees, he’d built the team and franchise he’d set out to build, and he’d made the Red Sox the greatest organization in baseball from the time he’d taken over to then. But after Crawford and Lackey showed up and sucked horribly, he was gone. That’s a bit of a simplification of course, but it’s roughly correct. Without Epstein’s failures in the free agent market, it’s entirely possible he might still be here.

Time waits for nobody, and in fact, it speeds up like hell when you’re a GM who just gave $90 million to a guy who can’t hit or field.

But he left and was replaced by assistant GM Ben Cherington. Cherington’s Red Sox finished in last place in his first season in charge. Then he hit the market hard. He brought in Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Carp, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, and Koji Uehara. That team won the World Series. Cherington didn’t hit fully on each player, but he got something productive out of each, and in the world of free agency that’s no sure thing. Cherington had turned to the market, supplemented the talent on hand with free agents, and won a World Series. Then 2014 happened and the team failed on the field once again.

Following that failure, for the 2015 season, Cherington decided he needed to upgrade the talent on hand. He went back to the free agent market to bring in Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Justin Masterson. As it turned out, all were horrific failures on a scale that seemingly couldn’t be predicted (maybe Masterson could have). The team cut Masterson mid-season but Sandoval and Ramirez were and are on long term contracts. And they were and are both awful. And the Red Sox finished last again. And that was it, the GM lost his job. Again. Less than two seasons removed from mastering the market and winning a World Series, Cherington had been given the boot hard.

Like Epstein before him, that was it. Unlike Epstein, there wasn’t really any other reason. Epstein squabbled with team president Larry Lucchino, had recently failed in the draft, and a few of his contract extensions were looking like expensive busts. Cherington had no such baggage. He was put out on his backside mostly because Pablo Sandoval went from above average hitter and above average fielder to downright awful at both as soon as he put on a Red Sox uniform. Hanley Ramirez, beyond April when he crushed homer after homer, stopped hitting and put on a display of fielding in left that would make little league teams look away.

Over the next few weeks and months you’re going to hear the Red Sox connected with just about every free agent there is. There will be David Price rumors, Zack Greinke meetings, Johnny Cueto whisperings, anonymous mentions of Jordan Zimmermann, and outright discussions of Chris Davis, Darren O’Day, and anyone else who plays baseball and has no contract. Dombrowski has his preferences and he will try to remake Boston’s roster in that image over the off-season and as he’s already said, that image includes a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. He may want to upgrade the offense with something more certain at first base than Hanley Ramirez, who it just seems like the Red Sox would rather pay to explore water on Mars than to play first base for them next season. It’s possible Dombrowski can do all this through trades but that seems unlikely. He’s probably going to have to sign a free agent or two. Or six.

If Dombrowski is going to give $200 million to David Price or $150 million to Johnny Cueto or whoever or whatever, he had better be certain. No, scratch that. He’d better be whatever word means three times the power of ‘certain’ before doing so. He just got here, and guys who just arrived typically get some time before being held to the fire, but Ben Cherington won a World Series two years ago. Two years ago! Two! And he’s now a visiting professor at Columbia University. Time waits for nobody, and in fact, it speeds up like hell when you’re a GM who just gave $90 million to a guy who can’t hit or field.

If Dombrowski wants to remake the roster and win now at the expense of tomorrow, he’d better be sure about the choices he makes when it comes to free agents. What I’m saying is Dave Dombrowski had better be immune to iocane powder.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

It’s easy to look at Lackey’s Red Sox tenure with antipathy. The right-hander signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract before the 2010 season, and for three years it looked like an unmitigated disaster. He was average in 2010, among the worst pitchers in baseball in 2011 (oh, and there was that chicken and beer thing) and missed all of 2012 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, however, argues that Lackey ultimately lived up to that deal with the way he’s pitched since. Speier’s not wrong, either. From 2013-15, Lackey sported a 3.73 FIP and 7.4 K/9 and has pitched in the postseason in each of those three years. He was a key part of the Red Sox’s World Series run in 2013, pitching in the title-clinching game, and has been a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Cardinals over the past year and a half. This season has been arguably Lackey’s most impressive since signing that deal. He posted a 2.77 ERA over 218 innings — his highest total since 2007 — as the ace of St. Louis’ staff with Adam Wainwright on the disabled list for most of the year, all while pitching on a major-league minimum salary. Sure, one could easily argue the contract was still a failure for Boston. The Red Sox only got one good season out of him. However, Lackey held up his end of the bargain. He delivered a championship to Boston, started 2014 strong and has continued to pitch well after being traded to the Cardinals at the 2014 deadline.

This will probably be one of the biggest stories of spring training, so we might as well get a head start on it. Ramirez is expected to be the Red Sox’s starting first baseman next season, and the team sounds convinced he can be a competent one. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, however, writes that we shouldn’t buy what Boston officials are selling, because they don’t believe in Ramirez either. The Red Sox are right not to have faith in Ramirez. He was the worst defensive player in baseball as a left fielder last season, and his lack of offensive production — he slashed .249/.291/.426 — only lessened his value. Those aren’t passable numbers for most average position players, and even worse for one who’s still owed $66 million over the next three years. In August I looked at three current first basemen — Miguel Cabrera, Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Zimmerman — who started their careers at other positions and examined how they fared in their transition. For better or worse (mostly worse) their defensive production didn’t improve at first base. Expect that to be the case for Ramirez as well. He was a below-average fielder as a shortstop, owning a -8.8 UZR/150 and -77 DRS at the position, and was a nightmare in left field. Ramirez is simply a bad fielder, and that’s not going to change.

Quick Hits

It’s the middle of October, which means the Red Sox’s offseason is finally under way. It’s clear improvements need to be made for 2016 after three last-place finishes in the last four years. One way change could come is via trade. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham looked at the trade value of each Sox player entering Dave Dombrowski’s first offseason in charge of the club. Abraham named catcher Blake Swihart the team’s biggest trade chip. Swihart showed promise in his rookie season, slashing .274/.319/.392 while progressing both at and behind the plate as the year went on. If Christian Vazquez is healthy enough to start next season then perhaps Boston could use Swihart to land the top-tier starting pitcher it needs.

The Red Sox, of course, could always find that top-of-the-rotation guy on the free agent market this winter, but even those pitchers aren’t without flaws. Christopher Smith of MassLive.com wrote about potential pitching targets this offseason and how they’ve fared in the postseason. The picture isn’t pretty. David Price and Johnny Cueto both struggled in their Game 1 starts in their respective ALDS matchups and are building reputations as poor playoff starters. Other upcoming free agents such as Jordan Zimmerman and Yovani Gallardo have been no better over their postseason careers. It could be enough to at least leave Boston second-guessing itself before overspending on an arm.

One starter the Red Sox should expect to have in 2016 is Brian Johnson. The lefty had an impressive season in Triple-A Pawtucket, posting a 3.22 FIP and 8.44 K/9 over 18 starts, but saw his season end prematurely when he experienced elbow discomfort just two starts after making his major league debut. WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford spoke to Johnson about his recovery progress. Johnson said he’s begun throwing again and plans to be a full-go at spring training. That’s good news for Boston, as it gives the team another option as it pieces together its rotation for next year.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald looked at the state of each of the Sox’s AL East foes heading into the offseason, and it appears there could be more shakeup throughout the division next year. The Blue Jays and Orioles have notable players entering free agency this winter while the Yankees and Rays will bring back most of their 2015 rosters barring any major trades. It’s evident the Red Sox aren’t the only team with holes to fill. 

In the wake of Chase Utley’s ugly takeout slide on Ruben Tejada in Game 2 of the NLDS, Scott Chiusano of the New York Daily News looked back on some of baseball’s worst takeout slides. The culprits on that list include Hal McRae, Will Clark and, most recently, Chris Coghlan on Jung Ho Kang in September. This story has nothing to do with the Red Sox, but it’s worth noting that one of the biggest plays in the organization’s history was actually a takeout slide attempt. The Red Sox led the Reds 3-0 in Game 7 of the 1975 World Series when Pete Rose broke up what would’ve been an inning-ending double play in the sixth by sliding hard at Denny Doyle and forcing a wild throw to first. Cincinnati’s Tony Perez followed with a two-run homer that sparked a comeback as the Reds won the decisive game 4-3.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Whether they get this caliber of pitcher or not, they’ll likely need more than one additional starter anyway. Even with a top-tier addition, the rotation will be filled out with Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez, which isn’t a group that can be counted on. Luckily, the second-tier of the free agent class has some very interesting names, and the Red Sox should be prepared to take a good, hard look at all of the following:

Scott Kazmir

Kazmir has had one of the stranger careers in recent memory, going from a top-of-the-rotation arm to a forgettable injured one, and now he’s back to being more than respectable. In fact, he’s pitched better than a second-tier guy in 2015, currently sporting a league-leading 174 ERA+. The 31-year-old is also 22nd in DRA among pitchers with at least 75 innings, and 30th in cFIP. However, he’s had injury problems and has never been quite this good before, so I can’t see him being included in the top group mentioned above. It’s worth mentioning that he was traded last week, meaning he can’t be given a qualifying offer. That will raise his price, making him one of the most expensive names in this tier, but it shouldn’t price him out of Boston.

Hisashi Iwakuma

Besides Kazmir, Iwakuma is my personal favorite pitcher in this tier. In his first three seasons in the United States, the Mariners starter has been one of the most underrated in all of baseball. He’s shown impeccable control, and has been able to strike out enough batters to get by. This season, however, Iwakuma has struggled like never before. He missed a big chunk of time with a strained lat earlier this season, and has underperformed when on the mound. He’s getting killed with home runs, but his walks are still way down, and his strikeouts have only fallen slightly. He’s obviously someone to watch for the rest of the year to see if he can turn it around, but he could be a cheap mid-rotation arm on the free agent market, which is a very rare thing.

Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo is an exciting name to be thrown on this list, but could be very valuable for the Red Sox. He shouldn’t be the best pitcher on a good team, but he’s a perfect complimentary arm. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside, as he’s stuck in a 100-115 ERA+ range for most of his career with matching peripherals. He does have a history of being on the mound, however, making at least 30 starts in each of the last six seasons while being well on his way to that feat in 2015. If anyone could use that kind of consistency, it’s the Red Sox. While I wouldn’t go out of my way to overpay for someone like Gallardo, he could be a perfect complimentary addition to someone like Hamels or Price.

Mat Latos

The most important thing to know about Mat Latos is the fact that his cat’s name is Cat Latos. The second most important thing to know about Mat Latos is he’s been a good pitcher over his career. Even this season, in which he’s struggled by ERA, his peripherals look as solid as ever. He’s pitched to a 3.34 FIP and a 98 cFIP, meaning improvement should be expected. He’s also only in his age-27 season, some rare youth for an impending free agent that should appeal to the Red Sox. Given his age, his struggles that should bring down his price, and his cat-naming skills, Latos could be a great fit in Boston.

John Lackey

Lol. Just kidding. He’s not coming back here.

Jeff Samardzija

If Samardzija was having a better season, he could have an argument to be bumped up a tier. However, he’s returned to his inconsistent self in 2015, and finds himself back down in the second tier. While his improved control from last season has stuck around this year, his strikeouts have fallen way off and he’s being hit more than ever before. His FIP, cFIP and DRA all suggest he’s been better than his ERA would suggest, but there are still issues here. He’ll still be one of the more expensive names on this list — especially if he’s traded and is ineligible for a qualifying offer — but he should be affordable, and has the kind of upside the Red Sox should be looking for.

So, there are a lot of second-tier pitchers that will be available this winter. To reiterate, this doesn’t mean the Red Sox should avoid the top of the market, whether that’s in trade or free agency. All of the names listed above have flaws, and the Red Sox could use more of a sure thing, even if it’s going to cost an arm and a leg. Either way, they’ll need more than one arm to rebuild the current rotation. If I had to pick one name, it would probably be Latos with his combination of age and performance, but they can’t really go wrong with any player. Next year is a big season for Ben Cherington’s future, and he needs to get his pitching decisions right this time around.

Photo by Robert Mayer/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox are getting to the end of that first stage, but the strange part is we don’t really have a handle on what that first stage has told us. This makes it difficult to know how they should handle the second stage. Boston sits last in the AL East, but only 6.5 games behind the first place Yankees. Then again, Boston’s run differential is -43. Then again, based on the track records of the players on the team, there’s reason to believe that figure doesn’t accurately represent the quality of the team going forward, only what they’ve done to date. You can already see the problem.

It’s not just idle speculation and fanboyism that leads someone to say the Red Sox still have a shot. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both publish team projections for the remaining games on the schedule. Both see the Red Sox as one of the best teams in the AL: FanGraphs has them in first outright and BP second to the Angels by a half game. But even so there are clearly a number of holes on the team, and a crunchy roster that doesn’t quite integrate as well as you’d like. Ben Cherington has talked about approaching the deadline not as a buyer or a seller, but as a team looking to improve itself long term. That makes sense, but it’s also a bit of a copout. What team doesn’t want to improve itself long term?

Short term, as in this season, the Red Sox have three main issues: they need to assemble a starting rotation, they need to find someone who can produce at first base, and they need a better bullpen. The problem is the way they approach those problems will vary depending on whether they are in a position to push toward the playoffs. For instance, you wouldn’t trade a significant piece to upgrade the bullpen while letting first base languish. Now, if there is a long term solution at first base COUGHTRADEEVERYTHINGFORGOLDSCHMIDTCOUGH then maybe you make that move and then if the market for relievers is insane you move on and try to patch from within or take a look again at the waiver deadline in a month. There are degrees here, for sure.

Then again, we’ve seen what straddling the line has looked like before. In 2014 Boston sold hard at the deadline, but they didn’t do it in a traditional vets-for-prospects type of way. They did deal Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that deal has paid dividends already, but they also dealt arguably their two best starting pitchers in John Lackey and Jon Lester for players already on major leaguer rosters, i.e. not prospects. Not even a year has passed and already those deals look awful. You couldn’t give Allen Craig away (we know because the Red Sox tried) let alone use him as a piece to acquire John Lackey, and Joe Kelly is hilarious on Twitter and also in Triple-A. Oops. Yoenis Cespedes came back for Lester and this off-season, instead of holding on to Cespedes, Boston dealt him to Detroit for Rick Porcello after signing Hanley Ramirez.

The Lester and Lackey deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them?

All those deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them? Is continuing down that road wrong at its core? It’s difficult to say.  It seems that last year wasn’t a case of the Red Sox front office misevaluating players so much as playing the lottery on what the players they acquired would become (with the exception of Craig). You wouldn’t condemn Ben Cherington if Yoan Moncada failed to reach his potential, for example. The Red Sox looked at him, believed in his talent, and paid what it cost to acquire him. After that, you try your best, but if it doesn’t happen, what are you gonna do? The same scenario applies to Kelly and, to a lesser extent, a post-injury Craig. That they turned out badly doesn’t necessitate a bad pre-trade thought process. Cespedes was different in that he was a known quantity. They didn’t get any discount on him when they acquired him either. But Craig and Kelly were both available because their value was down. They were upside plays, an attempt to get better players than might normally would be available in such a deal by accepting the risks that acquiring those specific players required.

Those risks haven’t panned out and it seems reasonable to criticize the Red Sox front office for taking those risks in the first place. The Red Sox aren’t typically the kind of team that needs to take expensive risks when it comes to players. They can pay more to minimize risk, and indeed Cherington has done exactly that when it comes to free agent signings (Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley) and player extensions (Porcello). Perhaps that’s the lesson of the 2014 deadline: don’t accept damaged goods just because you get a better price. Instead, acquire the best players you can and let that be your legacy.

With the roster in its current state, it seems the Red Sox are set to make deals again this deadline. The difference is, unlike last season, it’s hard to see who Boston would part with. Craig, Napoli, Daniel Nava, and Kelly have no trade value. Clay Buchholz is hurt. Koji Uehara has another season at $9 million due, which at his age and with his injury history likely hurts his trade value significantly. Maybe trading Junichi Tarawa would make sense, except the Red Sox bullpen needs Junichi Tazawa next season. Unless Boston is willing to sell core-type players or really shake up the roster by dealing guys they just acquired last off-season, there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster or even in Triple-A that can help a contending team. Which is a weird statement to make about a roster that projection systems are still saying is the best in the American League.

So in the end, we’re back at something like a grey area, at least from an outsider’s perspective. Boston can be both a buyer and a seller in that they need players and are also not particularly close to a playoff spot at the moment. They can also not be either as there are reasons to see the team as not good enough to make the playoffs and with a roster full of undesirable players to teams with rosters good enough to make the playoffs. Weird season, huh? The only thing is to hope, whatever the true takeaway points were from last season’s deadline deals, that Ben Cherington and company took them away. The Red Sox need a win at the deadline. The season may be drawing to a close.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Let’s go over those transactions, what the thoughts were behind them (presumably) and how that thinking may have changed 10 months later.

July 26

Trade 1: Jake Peavy and cash to the San Francisco Giants; Received Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Peavy was struggling with a 4.72 ERA. Of course as soon as he got to the Giants he became peak Peavy again, throwing 78 innings of 2.17 ERA ball, but that doesn’t matter to Boston. Good for Peavy, who won his second ring in as many years with the Giants and netted himself a two-year, $23 million deal to stay in San Francisco. He wasn’t needed in Boston anymore.

Who Boston Received: What matters here is that Escobar and Hembree came to Boston for half a season (what was remaining on Peavy’s deal at the time) of an older pitcher who wasn’t pitching well. Escobar, the get in this deal, just turned 23 years old. He’s a lefty with some speed on his fastball, two average off-speed pitches, and the potential to step into the back or, if everything breaks right, middle of a major league rotation sometime in the near future. His upside is about what the Red Sox gave up in Peavy (not the Cy Young Peavy, but the Red Sox version), but with seven years of control at a low cost instead of three months at a high cost. Right now he’s on the disabled list with left shoulder inflammation, which does not sound good, but then that’s the life of a pitcher.

The other player in the deal was Heath Hembree. The scouting report was that he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, but not a whole lot else, but he’s doing quite well in Triple-A this season with 12 strikeouts to only two walks in 12.1 innings.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s unclear how the careers of the two pitchers who came to Boston will play out, but as with all young pitchers, the Red Sox got themselves two lottery cards and, at least in one instance, a card with decent odds of turning into something. Even in light of Peavy’s success with the Giants this deal looks like a steal. A.

July 30

Trade 2: Felix Doubront to the Chicago Cubs; Received a player to be named later ( Marco Hernandez)

I’m going to skip the boilerplate and just say that Marco Hernandez has a .610 OPS in Double-A as a 22-year-old. Further I’m going to say Felix Doubront, after a short required post-Red Sox tour of duty with the Cubs, was released and as of this writing is out of baseball. Generally I don’t like deals where one club deals a major leaguer for a minor league nobody. Even if the major leaguer is not very good, he’s still a major leaguer, but in this case, this is effectively nobody for nobody. Moving on…

July 31

Trade 3: Traded Andrew Miller to the Baltimore Orioles; Received Eduardo Rodriguez

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball. Now, he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. That’s a tough standard to maintain, though. In 2014, Miller was worth 2.2 fWAR, seventh-best in baseball among relievers. Care to guess who was the seventh best reliever in baseball by the same metric in 2010? Matt Belsile. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position.

Who Boston Received: Eduardo, or Eddie, Rodriguez, came as a highly touted 21-year-old starter, one of the best prospects in Baltimore’s system. But he wasn’t supposed to be this good. Upon getting to Pawtucket, he altered the way he threw his changeup and took off from there, crushing the International League through the end of the 2014 season. This season he’s picked up mostly where he left off.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: This is exactly the kind of deal an out-of-contention team should make. Exactly. The fact that the Red Sox netted their best pitching prospect helps the optics of it, but even if Rodriguez blew out his arm tomorrow, a high upside starter for half a season of a reliever, even one as good as Miller, is a no-brainer. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position. A

Trade 4: Traded Stephen Drew and cash to the New York Yankees; Received Kelly Johnson

Again no boilerplate here. This one was pretty simple, if notable because of the organizations involved. The Red Sox had re-signed Drew to play shortstop on a contender. They were not a contender, thus they didn’t need Drew. The Yankees needed someone to play second base while they chased a Wild Card. Without Drew the Yankees didn’t need Kelly Johnson. The Red Sox, as it turned out, didn’t need him either, flipping him to Baltimore for Jemile Weeks and Ivan De Jesus at the end of August. De Jesus was cut loose and is now in the Reds organization while Weeks is (not hitting) in Pawtucket.

The end result here was the Red Sox didn’t have to pay the last two months of Drew’s contract. Mission accomplished!

Trade 5: Traded John Lackey, Corey Littrell, and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals; Received Allen Craig and Joe Kelly

Who Boston Gave Up: John Lackey had a year and a half of his contract left when Boston sent him to St. Louis. Due to a clause in his contract that specified he would play an additional year at the major league minimum if he missed a year with an arm injury, Lackey was a steal. The Red Sox had Lackey, a number two or three starter, at about $600,000, for a full season. That’s value right there, and the front office should have extracted value in return. They… sort of… did?

Who Boston Received: There was talk of receiving a top prospect but the Red Sox went a different route, opting for major league-ready players in return. They got, as you know, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig.

We’ll start with Craig. Clearly a buy-low attempt by the front office, the former All Star had received MVP votes in two seasons prior to suffering a Lisfranc injury that essentially wrecked his 2014 season. The hope was an offseason of recovery would do wonders and the Red Sox would have an All Star on a long-term, low-cost deal. So far, at least, this has not happened, and it has not happened in a profound way. Craig has been horrendous, batting .130/.235/.192 during his time with Boston. The problem is that if Craig isn’t hitting he doesn’t bring value on defense or on the bases, and he’s not especially great at getting on base either.

The Red Sox sent him to Pawtucket. His career isn’t over. There is still a chance to salvage some value here, but just the fact that I’m using the word “salvage” should make it clear how badly this part of the deal has gone. At this point the Red Sox couldn’t give Craig away, let alone trade him for something valuable like a year of a good starting pitcher.

Then there’s Joe Kelly. Kelly may or may not be a starting pitcher. There’s a case to be made that he’s pitched much better than his ERA shows, he’s young, he’s got a woof’n fastball, and he’s under team control until 2019. Those are all points in his favor. And even if he’s a bullpen arm, he’s got some value. One could make a case that Kelly is worth a season and a half of Lackey. I’m not sure it’s a case I’d make for this team as currently constructed, but you could construct an argument that wouldn’t be nuts.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s important to note that the Red Sox received nine player seasons for a year and a half of Lackey. Right now they have six plus of those player seasons remaining. The returns aren’t promising, but there is still time. D

Trade 6: Traded Jonny Gomes, Jon Lester and cash to the Oakland Athletics. Received Yoenis Cespedes and 2015 competitive balance round B pick

Who Boston Gave Up: We’ll dispense with Gomes because this isn’t about him in any way at all. The Red Sox season was over and he had no more usefulness left. This is all about Jon Lester, the best pitcher the Red Sox have developed since Roger Clemens. I’m not going to rehash all the contract negotiations here, but in the end the Red Sox determined they couldn’t meet Lester’s price. Then, during the off-season, they attempted to meet Lester’s price, which by that time had gone up. I’m shaking my head right now. I consider myself an objective analyst but it is admittedly difficult to be objective about this. Given where Lester was in his career, you can maybe understand why the Red Sox made the offer they did. But by the time the trade deadline rolled around the team had succeeded in poisoning the well to such an extent that they felt they couldn’t sign Lester. We now know with some certainty that had they come to Lester on that day and offered him the six year, $135 million deal or even a slightly lesser variant of the same deal they would present to him in three months, Lester would still be in Boston.

This would be a whole lot easier to stomach if the Red Sox didn’t need Lester but of the holes on this current team, the biggest is at the front of the starting rotation. Losing Lester means the team better have received something hugely intensely amazing in return…

aaaaaaaaaaaand they didn’t.

Who Boston Received: Yoenis Cespedes was and is a good power-hitting outfielder who the Red Sox might have thought they could sign long term. They couldn’t agree on terms and Cespedes was dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello, who the team then gave the money they initially offered to Jon Lester to. Porcello should do fine for Boston but unless he develops new strikeout skills, he’s not the pitcher Lester was.

By the letter of the law, the Red Sox turned a half season of Jon Lester into a season and a half of Rick Porcello, plus exclusive negotiation rights that turned into a four-year extension. Yet it’s difficult to look at it that way. Lester wanted to stay in Boston. The Red Sox needed him to stay in Boston. He should still be in Boston. But he isn’t, and it’s hard to look at that as anything other than a huge mistake.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: I really wanted to give this an F, but Porcello is a good pitcher and an asset, no matter what you think of his contract. C-/D+

The focus on major league players was an attempt to bolster the roster for a playoff run in the short term. Plainly put, that part has not worked. Craig and Kelly are disappointments or non-factors, and it’s not hard to see that the team would be better off with Lackey. Porcello is, again, fine, but he’s a step or two back from Lester. The fact that Craig is now in Triple-A adds an ironic twist to Boston’s insistence on bringing back major league players in these deals, as well as a sad statement on their lack of success. Oddly, the player who may present the largest impact to the major league team might be Eduardo Rodriguez.

Boston’s strategy appeared to be similar to how some teams (most teams?) approach the draft: accumulate as much talent as possible regardless of position and let things sort themselves out later. The Red Sox did that to some extent by acquiring Cespedes and then flipping him to Detroit for Porcello. Beyond that, Boston may have under-estimated their ability to upgrade the offense through free agency during the then coming off-season. If they knew adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were possibilities it makes you wonder why they’d want Allen Craig.

The story of the 2014 deadline deals isn’t over. We won’t know for a long time how this whole thing plays out. But right now, 10 months after the fact, with holes throughout the rotation and an overabundance of money if not talent committed to the outfield, it’s difficult to call those six days successful.

Top photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

C: Blake Swihart (-.16) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (Braves, .78)

I can’t believe it either, but Pierzynski is the only real option for starting catcher. Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t really in the big leagues and David Ross isn’t an everyday player. That’s pretty much it. For as much bad as we can say about Pierzynski — and we could go damn near forever — we can say very little about Swihart except that, thank the gods, he’s not Pierzynski. Let’s call it even if only from the standpoint of human decency.

1B: Mike Napoli (-.14) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (1.99)

This one’s not really close. Napoli is in a giant slump and Gonzalez has been the best hitter in the game so far this season, more or less. The ex-Sox leap ahead.

2B: Dustin Pedroia (1.24) vs. Mike Aviles (.44)

Pedroia has held the Red Sox’ second base position down for so long that we need to shoehorn Aviles in here just to round out the infield (unless we want Stephen Drew and his 0 WAR, which we don’t). The current Red Sox are as far ahead here as they are anywhere, and we’re more or less even again.

SS: Xander Bogaerts (.33) vs. Jose Iglesias (.40)

This would be Jed Lowrie (1.36) of the Astros, but Lowrie is hurt, as usual, and everybody loves Iggy. Bogaerts may yet become the ninth wonder of the world, but if you had a team with the offenses that both of these teams have, the defense would be the important part if you were playing the game today. Bogaerts’ future means squat here. Slightest advantage to the ex-Sox.

3B: Pablo Sandoval (.73) vs. Adrian Beltre (.05)

There are no losers here. Pats on the head for everyone. Sandoval has been better this year, but Beltre is Beltre. Let’s call it even, with the ex-Sox a tick ahead.

DH: David Ortiz (.07) vs. Victor Martinez (-.29)

Another case of two players I love, both of whom have started slowly. Advantage Red Sox, though, because come on. It’s a dead heat. It won’t stay that way.

Outfield: Hanley Ramirez (.72), Mookie Betts (1.26), Brock Holt (\o/, .44)
vs.
Yoenis Cespedes (.27), Jacoby Ellsbury (.97), Brandon Moss (.14)

Both of these teams would rotate their outfielders and both teams have good a good set of them beyond the starters; for the Red Sox, you have Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Rusney Castillo waiting in the wings, while for the ex-Sox, you have Coco Crisp and, yes, Carl Crawford. Did I say “Carl Crawford?” Advantage: Red Sox, who are about to get slaughtered.

Rotation
Clay Buchholz (.81), Rick Porcello (-.15), Justin Masterson (.15), Wade Miley (-.11), Joe Kelly (.03)
vs.
Jon Lester (.89), Anibal Sanchez (.50), Bartolo Colon (.71), John Lackey (.80) and Rubby de la Rosa (.10)

Advantage: The ex-Sox by five miles. Maybe 10 miles.

Closer: Koji Uehara (.21) vs. Andrew Miller (.49)

Andrew Miller has been almost as good as possible be this year. His ERA is 0.00 in 15+ innings. He has a 28:8 K:BB ratio. He has 13 saves. He’s a big reason the Yankees are in first place.

Koji is Koji.

Advantage: Red Sox, but the damage has been done. You’re going to want those ex-Sox in a single game, a seven-game series or a season. It’s okay, because the Red Sox are still (really!) damn good, and come into tonight’s game at 41 percent to make the playoffs and the highest expected winning percentage in the AL East, all while being three games below .500.

But yeah…

… if it doesn’t work out, just know the Ghost Sox are doing work out here, too.

Photo by Caylor Arnold/USA Today Sports Images