A quiet day would be an abnormal development for the Red Sox, who are usually active at the deadline, especially since the turn of the century as they’ve consistently made major moves to either boost a playoff-caliber team, or tear apart the bad ones. Many deals succeeded, leading to championship runs. Some failed miserably. Others, well, didn’t do much of anything. Regardless, Theo Epstein, Ben Cherington and Co. were never afraid to pull the trigger.

Today’s trade deadline may leave Red Sox fans underwhelmed, but many deadlines haven’t. Let’s look back at some of those busier deadlines and see just how well (or poorly) they turned out. I present you with the five biggest Red Sox trade deadlines of the 21st century.

5.) 2013

Red Sox acquire right-handers Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal, send shortstop Jose Iglesias to the Tigers and send right-handers J.B. Wendelken and Francelis Montas to the White Sox

This trade technically came the day before the 2013 trade deadline, but I make the rules here, and I say that’s good enough to make this list. Anyway, the 2013 Red Sox were in the midst of a worst-to-first turnaround, but needed another starting pitcher for their playoff push. Insert Jake Peavy. The righty gave the Sox just what they needed, posting a 3.82 FIP in 10 regular-season starts and helping them win the World Series. Peavy’s 2013 postseason was less than stellar, but he did start the ALDS clincher against the Rays, allowing just one run on five hits over 5.2 innings. The Red Sox got an ok half season out of Peavy in 2014 before shipping him to the eventual world champion Giants in 2014.

The only notable loss for the Red Sox in that deal was Jose Iglesias, but even his departure wasn’t a major letdown at the time with Stephen Drew and Dustin Pedroia at shortstop and second base, respectively, Will Middlebrooks (sort of) contributing at third and Xander Bogaerts on his way. Iglesias was known primarily for his glove coming through the Sox organization, but was hitting well early on in 2013, posting a .285 TAv in 63 games before being dealt. Iglesias missed all of 2014, owned a .252 TAv in 2015 and has a .243 TAv this season. Meanwhile, Bogaerts could be the one of the best offensive shortstops in the majors for years to come. Safe to say the Red Sox made the right move.

Iglesias still contributed to the 2013 title, by the way.

That led to this:

4.) 2009

Red Sox acquire catcher Victor Martinez from the Indians for right-hander Justin Masterson, left-hander Nick Hagadone and catcher Bryan Price

The playoff-bound Red Sox bolstered their lineup with one big swap, adding Victor Martinez in exchange for Justin Masterson and a pair of prospects. Martinez proved to be a nice addition, as he split time between catcher and first base over 183 regular-season games between 2009 and 2010. Martinez posted a .302 TAv in 237 plate appearances in 2009 and a .281 mark the next year. He didn’t give the Red Sox the postseason production they were hoping for in 2009, collecting just a pair of hits, but that run also lasted just three games.

This trade wasn’t necessarily a win or loss for either team, but it’s safe to say the Indians got more out of the deal. Masterson pitched five solid years in Cleveland, his best being in 2013 when he was the ace of the staff and led the Indians to a postseason berth with a 2.63 DRA and 3.38 FIP. The righty’s career has since flamed out after a disastrous season with the Red Sox in 2015, but the Indians certainly got the best of him.

3.) 2014

Red Sox trade left-hander Jon Lester to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes and a competitive balance pick; send right-hander John Lackey and left-hander Corey Littrell to the Cardinals for outfielder Allen Craig and right-hander Joe Kelly; trade left-hander Andrew Miller to the Orioles for right-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and send shortstop Stephen Drew to the Yankees for utility infielder Kelly Johnson

Making one major trade at the deadline is big. Two deals is impressive. Four deals in one day is on another level. That’s exactly what the Red Sox did at the 2014 trade deadline as they shipped off a number of veterans over four trades, eyeing the future in the midst of a last-place season.

The Sox’s deadline activity actually began five days earlier when they traded Peavy to the Giants for Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar. Escobar is no longer with the team, but Hembree has turned into a nice innings eater out of the bullpen. The real fireworks, however, began early on the morning of the deadline when Jon Lester was sent to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes. Lester was once again pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the Sox were out of contention and the lefty was in the final year of his contract with no long-term agreement in sight. Cespedes, meanwhile, was a big bat with another year left on his deal. Lester picked up where he left off upon joining the A’s, posting a 2.35 ERA and 3.16 FIP over 11 starts. The Sox pursued Lester in the offseason, but lost out to the Cubs. Cespedes owned a .269 TAv over 213 plate appearances before being dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello in the offseason. Sure, Porcello doesn’t seem like a stellar return for Lester (although Porcello has been one of their two most dependable starters this season), but they also could have lost the lefty for nothing that offseason had they not traded him.

Then there was the deal we’d all like to forget. That was the deal that brought Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston in exchange for John Lackey. The trade made plenty of sense at the time. Lackey was pitching well, but had little future left in Boston, especially after expressing his displeasure about pitching at the major-league minimum in 2015. Craig was a former All-Star who appeared to be simply having a bad year, while Kelly was young, could throw hard and had shown potential after posting a 2.69 ERA over 15 starts in 2013. Two years later, the deal looks as bad as ever for the Red Sox. Lackey posted a 2.77 ERA while pitching at the minimum for the Cardinals last season. Craig spent most of last season in Triple-A and has since fallen off the face of the earth. Kelly has spent his time with the Red Sox either hurt, or bouncing between Triple-A and the majors.

As dominant as Andrew Miller has been over the last two-plus years, a young pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez was about the best you were going to get for a rental reliever (how times have changed). The Orioles got the most out of Miller, who owned a 1.16 FIP in 23 appearances with Baltimore in 2014. He’s since become one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons. The Red Sox, meanwhile, got a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm for a player they would probably lose to free agency anyway.

The Stephen Drew trade proved to be insignificant. He gave the Yankees an ok season and a half and Kelly Johnson gave the Red Sox next to nothing. However, the trade opened up shortstop for Bogaerts, and we all know how that’s gone.

This deadline was as crazy as it gets for any team. At the time, the Red Sox seemingly won the day, but hindsight shows that not all of it worked out as planned. The Lackey deal is a perfect example of that. However, it would’ve looked worse if the Red Sox lost some of these players to free agency.

2.) 2008

Red Sox acquire outfielder Jason Bay from the Pirates, trade outfielder Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and send right-hander Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Pirates

This trade was years in the making. It was far from the first time Manny Ramirez had been part of a trade rumor, and even further from the first time he wanted out of Boston. In 2008, the Red Sox finally pulled the trigger, and got a player in Jason Bay who could fill Ramirez’s void immediately. From a straight trade standpoint, the Red Sox and Dodgers both got solid production for a year and a half of service. Bay posted a .308 TAv in 211 plate appearances with the Sox in 2008, while owning a .302 mark the next season. Ramirez was even more impressive with his .425 TAv in 229 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2008 and .336 mark in 2009 as LA reached the NLCS both seasons. Ramirez was clearly better than Bay during that time, but by that point he had been nothing but a distraction in Boston and needed to go.

As for the prospects the Red Sox gave up. Craig Hansen’s career continued to be forgettable. Brandon Moss’ career never really materialized until his 2012 arrival in Oakland in 2012, where he totaled 76 home runs over three seasons. Moss, 32, has a .323 TAv and 17 home runs for the Cardinals this season.

1.) 2004

Red Sox acquire shortstop Orlando Cabrera from the Expos and first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz from the Twins, and send shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and outfielder Matt Murton to the Cubs, and acquire outfielder Dave Roberts from the Dodgers for outfielder Henri Stanley

This may go down as the biggest trade deadline in Red Sox history. It was significant enough that they traded, at the time, one of the most iconic players in team history. Add in the fact that it helped propel the Sox to their first World Series title in 86 years and you’re talking about a deadline worth telling your grandkids about.

We start, of course, with the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Garciaparra had been the face of the Red Sox since his 6.0 WARP rookie season in 1997 and a clear fan favorite. He was also really, really good, owning a 43.7 WARP between 1997 and 2003 (keep in mind he missed most of 2001). But by July 2004, he had seemingly overstayed his welcome in Boston. He was in a contract year with no promise of returning, had become a defensive liability and was expected to miss more time with an Achilles injury. Epstein, in a stroke of groinal fortitude, dealt away the superstar in hopes of shoring up the team’s “fatal flaw”: defense.

Epstein got just what he was looking for from Orlando Cabrera. The shortstop’s .268 TAv with the Red Sox was comparable to Garciaparra’s .272 TAv with the Sox in 2004, but he also posted a positive FRAA and played 15 more games than Garciaparra did in the final two months. Cabrera left at the end of the season and the Red Sox began a carousel at shortstop over the next decade, but the championship and Garciaparra’s rapid decline soon after was enough to justify the move.

The Dave Roberts trade was a footnote in the midst of an active deadline, and with good reason. The outfielder made just 101 plate appearances and posted a .251 TAv. He was simply acquired to add speed, defense and depth off the bench. However, Roberts is also responsible for the biggest stolen base in Red Sox history.

***

It’s unlikely the Red Sox will do anything to top these trade deadlines this season. But that’s why a list like this exists. You don’t get fireworks every season. When you consider the moves the Sox have made in the past month, it makes even more sense for this deadline to be a quiet one. That’s not always a bad thing.

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As of now, they have three competent starters in David Price, Steven Wright and Rick Porcello. See a common thread here? None of them were homegrown. Price was a big FA acquisition, and Wright and Porcello were obtained in trades with AL Central teams. That leaves two rotation spots for the other starters to fill, and, well, they haven’t been anything close to competent. The melting pot of Clay Buchholz, Roenis Elias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly and Henry Owens has made a really unappetizing stew.

But hey, there’s some slack to cut. Elias, Rodriguez, and Kelly weren’t brought up through the Red Sox’s farm system, and Buchholz has been good in the past. Problem is, he isn’t good anymore. Neither is Henry Owens. And therein lies the core of the issue. The Red Sox, as an organization, simply cannot produce starting pitchers.

When’s the last time you can remember the Red Sox churning out a starter that could cut it in the majors? Buchholz did well for a while, but his trademark erraticism has torpedoed any hope that he could be that good again. So let’s go with Jon Lester. He debuted in 2006, and became a full-time starter in 2008. He is, by far, the best pitcher they’ve developed in recent years, and I’m really straining the definition of the word “recent” here.

There’s been flareups from guys like Justin Masterson and his really good four months in 2009, and Felix Doubront and his strangely decent 2013 season. Other than those 10 months of good pitching, everything has been terrible. That’s not an exaggeration. It’s been so bad that Brad Penny – you know, the dude who could only manage five innings of four-run ball per start in 2009 – has been more valuable in 131 innings than the vast majority of Red Sox-developed starters in the last several years. David Price has already blown past them all as well. Even Eduardo Rodriguez, who we can all agree has been objectively horrifying to watch pitch this year, is worth more than many Sox starters.

So, as a benchmark, let’s use Lester’s promotion to a full-time starter in 2008 as a starting point here. What other monstrosities have the Red Sox minors unleashed upon the major league team? Remember, they’ve had to come up solely through the Red Sox’s system. Also, Brian Johnson is currently exempt, as he’s been snakebitten with injuries, and is being treated for anxiety.

• For starters – pun intended – there’s Charlie Zink. He was a knuckleballer who made a single disastrous start in 2008 and was never heard from again. Think of how a knuckleballer can go bad, and then make it three times worse. Yeah. That’s Zink.
• Michael Bowden probably didn’t get very much of a chance in the majors in the late 2000s, but he was still pretty nondescript in the minors. He was used primarily as a reliever, but the strange, arm-twisting throwing motion of his tended to give away his pitch a lot, and made him very vulnerable to the running game. Never really started again after 2010, and no team took a chance on him.
• Junichi Tazawa actually came into the majors in 2009 as a starter, and unsurprisingly, gave up 23 runs in 25.1 innings. Now you see why he’s a reliever. To his credit, he did have one good start against the Yankees while the entire team imploded around him that year.
• If you can recall specific details from the September collapse in 2011, you probably remember Kyle Weiland. He was so bad in his major league stint that a Terry Francona press conference is all I could find for highlights of him. He added to the collapse by giving up five home runs in 24 innings, and was sent to Houston to fade away that winter.
• Daniel Bard, the starter. You’re sad, I’m sad, so let’s just move on.
• Brandon Workman’s been middling, to put it kindly. A terrible 2014 wiped out whatever good vibes lasted from his 2013 campaign. Then came the Tommy John surgery. He’s slated to be a reliever now as well.
• Hey, remember Anthony Ranaudo? The guy who couldn’t strike anyone out, walked boatloads of batters, and gave up a ton of fly balls? He’s what rock bottom looks like for Red Sox starters. You have to try real hard to get a 6.89 FIP in 39 innings, but Ranaudo put that work in.
• Henry Owens has 13 walks in 12 innings this year. Somehow, the Red Sox won every start he’s made. Sure, there’s hope, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions last year, and the walks aren’t going away.

I’d rather not go on. You’ve seen this story play out over and over again. The Red Sox aren’t developing starting pitchers, and that list doesn’t even include starters acquired from other teams, like Zach Stewart. They even hired Brian Bannister to bolster their pitching corps, and so far, the results still aren’t there. This isn’t Bannister’s fault, but the organization’s as a whole.

Going forward, it doesn’t look much better. Anderson Espinosa is someone to get excited about, yes, and Michael Kopech is also quite good. But it says a lot about the state of Red Sox pitching if their third-best prospect might end up being Jason Groome, the Red Sox’s 2016 first round selection who might opt for junior college to raise his draft stock. That’s not a good situation.

This forces the Red Sox to overpay for starters. Just look at Price’s contract. Or the price tag for someone like Julio Teheran, who would be a mediocre fit in Fenway Park, but would be a much better option than whomever the Red Sox cough up for those last two spots in the rotation. It’s not an enviable position, and if Dombrowski decides to deal, it could quickly deplete a farm system with a big gap between its top four prospects and everyone else.

Look, I realize the Red Sox aren’t the Mets. They won’t churn out a top-flight starter every 12 months. Hell, they can’t even produce a major-league starter in three times that. But it’s rapidly become a chronic issue, especially as the team searches for solutions. At this point, they can’t look internally for help for much longer. The players they need just aren’t there, and it’s been that way for a long, long time.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Regardless of how you view this season thus far, it’s still a big improvement from last year. Some of those first-half successes can be attributed to changes made in the offseason, such as signing David Price and Chris Young and trading for Craig Kimbrel (sorry, Carson Smith). But those changes, particularly the trades, also required parting ways with some notable players. Yes, the Red Sox acquired talent, but gone are promising prospects such as Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra, as well as complementary pieces like starting pitcher Wade Miley.

We’ve seen how these moves have worked for the Red Sox, but what about the teams on the other side of the deals? What kind of contributions have the likes Margot, Guerra and Miley made to their new clubs, and what does it mean for those players going forward?

Let’s start with the Kimbrel deal. The Sox sent Margot, Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen to San Diego for the four-time All-Star closer. Kimbrel, as I wrote last week, has become the player the Red Sox were hoping to get. The Padres may be a mess, but they aren’t missing Kimbrel, either. Fernando Rodney owns a 0.31 ERA and 2.32 FIP, and San Diego’s newcomers have shown good potential in the minor leagues.

Manuel Margot

2015: .270 TAv, .147 ISO and 1.1 WARP in 64 games with Double-A Portland; .273 TAv, .138 ISO and 1.7 WARP with High-A Salem

Last season was good, but not great for Margot. This year he’s looked more like the player that made him one of the top prospects in the Red Sox’s organization. He’s spent the entire season with Triple-A El Paso, and has been the leadoff hitter and starting center fielder most of the way. He’s also putting up some of the best numbers of his young MiLB career. Margot is slashing .299/.352/.419 with a .274 TAv., while his speed (21 stolen bases) and defense (14.9 FRAA) continue to be strengths. BP’s Mark Anderson put his MLB ETA at 2017 in his scouting report three years ago. With the Padres out of contention, the 21-year-old Margot may get his chance as early as this September.

Carlos Asuaje

2015: .259 TAv, .123 ISO and -0.6 WARP in 131 games with Double-A Portland

Asuaje didn’t look like a major piece in the Kimbrel deal at the time. He projected as nothing more than a major-league utility player, and his numbers in Portland last year proved just that. Asuaje, however, has found new life in a new system, posting a .296 TAv and 1.3 WARP in El Paso thus far. He also has 25 extra-base hits, including a Pacific Coast League-high seven triples, matching his total from last season. Asuaje’s 2016 numbers are a throwback to his 2014 campaign split between Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem, when he combined for a 5.2 WARP that year. Now he’s starting to see his major-league potential manifest itself in his first crack at Triple-A. Perhaps he’s not far from his big-league debut either.

Javier Guerra

2015: .280 TAv, .171 ISO and 4.0 WARP in 116 games with Low-A Greenville

Guerra put all scouting reports to shame with his offensive production in Greenville last season. As BP’s Wilson Karaman wrote, Guerra is a premier defensive shortstop with a little pop in his bat, but at 20 years old his approach at the plate is still raw. That’s the player he’s been this season. He owns an underwhelming .245 TAv in High-A Lake Elsinore, but does have a 9.9 FRAA. Guerra hasn’t shown quite as much power, however, as he has just eight homers in 282 plate appearances and a .139 ISO, but it’s still a potential strength of his.

Logan Allen

2015: 0.90 ERA, 1.05 FIP and 10.8 K/9 in seven starts in rookie ball; made one start in Class-A Lowell

The Red Sox drafted Allen in the eighth round last June, so there’s little to compare what he’s done thus far to. What we do know is that the 18-year-old is off to a decent start, posting a 3.07 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 8.4 K/9 in 12 appearances (eight starts) for Low-A Fort Wayne. BP’s Grant Jones sees a potential major-league future for Allen, but that’s still a long way from being realized.

Then there’s the Miley trade. Both the Red Sox and Mariners are off to good starts, but no thanks in part to the deal that sent Miley and Jonathan Aro to Seattle in exchange for Smith, who is out for the season, and Roenis Elias, who had a forgettable Sox debut.

Wade Miley

2015: 4.46 ERA, 3.78 FIP and 6.8 K/9 in 32 starts

The Red Sox knew what they were getting from Miley last season. This year, the left-hander has been far worse. Miley owns a 4.74 DRA and 4.82 FIP through 13 starts with the Mariners this season. He’s allowing home runs at a career-high rate (1.5 HR/9) and inducing ground balls at a career-low rate (45 percent). These numbers are all coming with Safeco Field as his home ballpark. As bad as Boston’s starting rotation has been, it wouldn’t be any better with Miley in the fold.

Jonathan Aro

2015: 6.97 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 7.0 K/9 in six games with Boston; 3.14 ERA, 2.42 FIP and 9.2 K/9 in 26 games with Triple-A Pawtucket; 2.82 ERA, 2.78 FIP and 7.7 K/9 in eight games with Double-A Portland.

Aro was a decent reliever throughout his MiLB career with the Red Sox, and he’s continued to be one for Triple-A Tacoma. The 25-year-old righty owns a 2.27 ERA and 3.81 FIP over 23 appearances, while posting a 6.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Pretty good, but nothing special. That’s who Aro is, and who he’ll continue to be, even if he works his way into a middle relief role in the majors.

The only other notable player the Red Sox lost in the offseason was Justin Masterson, but the Sox gladly let him walk in free agency after an ugly showing in 2015. This season hasn’t treated Masterson any better. He’s made five appearances (two starts) for the Indianapolis Indians – the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate – and owns a 5.17 ERA and 6.48 FIP. It’s safe to say he’s not due for any more post-Boston breakthrough seasons.

The Red Sox parted ways with numerous players throughout the organization last offseason. Overall, those players have met expectations in their new homes. What does that mean for the Sox? Ultimately very little given the way both offseason trades worked for the teams involved. Both the Red Sox and Padres benefited from the Kimbrel trade, while the Mariners and Sox have yet to get anything out of the Miley deal. Sometimes that’s how trades work. The fun part will be seeing what kind of players Margot and Co. develop into, while the Red Sox hope to get value out of Kimbrel and Smith for the next few years.

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There’s a powerful trend: the more horizontal the movement, the greater the platoon split.

In April 2010, Max Marchi did a cluster analysis on the first three years’ worth of PITCHf/x data from right-handed pitchers and came up with 14 clusters, or categories. Not all right-handed pitchers’ offerings fall neatly into one of those categories, but there’s enough data in there that if one ran an analysis based on them, the results would be something to reckon with. Marchi returned to 12 of those categories a couple of weeks later and published some platoon splits. The results are pretty compelling

The short version is that there’s a powerful trend: the more horizontal the movement of a pitch, the greater the platoon split. Velocity also matters in an important way, with slower pitches less prone to positive platoon splits. I walked myself through the long version of this last week, which would give you more of an idea of what I’m getting at.

Here, I want to talk specifically about fastballs, using the second of those general principles: the more horizontal the movement, the greater the platoon split. Here are the three fastball clusters/categories Marchi used that had average PITCHf/x velocities over 90 mph: the “Sinker” (yellow), the “Heater” (red), and the “Jumping Fastball” (orange). Movement presented from the catcher’s perspective.

The numbers inside are Marchi’s Run Value Per 100 Pitches calculations, giving you an idea of just how significant the differences are. Almost 1 run per 100 pitches is enough to make a “pretty good” pitch “pretty bad.” Still, these numbers don’t actually tell us that a “Sinker” fares much worse than a “Jumping Fastball” when a RHP faces a lefty hitter; they just tell us that when a RHP throws a “Sinker,” it does a lot worse against lefty hitters than it does against right-handed batters.

Pitchers with mainly horizontal offerings tend to have bigger platoon splits. A fastball/slider pitcher tends to have a hard time with that, but if most of the fastballs are true “sinkers” like the Marchi category? Let’s just say we all thought something like Justin Masterson’s .307/.409/.508 line against lefties in 2015 was within the realm of possibility before he ever put the uniform back on.

Not all of the sinkers thrown by Red Sox pitchers look even vaguely like the yellow “Sinker” category above. Naturally, not all have platoon splits so excruciatingly extreme. The only player here with laughably different platoon splits is Masterson; over the last two years, his fourseam was hit hard by hitters on both sides of the plate, but his sinker had a .288 batting average against with righties, while lefties tuned them up with a .345 average.

One thing we may be able to do with all this: track changes in a single pitch’s movement, and see where that leads us. This last season, Rick Porcello’s sinker didn’t sink as much as it did in the previous two (his best two seasons).

The result? As Porcello’s sinker had more rise, lefties were limited more, but righties had a lot more fun. In 2015, Porcello’s sinker had about the same kind of “rise” as that of Clay Buchholz. It’s hard to see that kind of reverse platoon split continuing, but there is some support for the idea that it should be less positive if the pitch’s movement is at a more vertical angle.

Joe Kelly has also seen his sinker get more rise as he’s pitched in the majors. The contrast is not as great as with Porcello, but once again: lefties generally had more success as the pitch’s movement was more vertical, and righties reaped the benefits. On that .449 SLG mark for lefties in 2015, note that in batting average, lefties dipped to just .279 on the pitch, after hitting over .300 in each of the previous three seasons.

The Marchi numbers seem to work well as a cross-check for individual pitchers’ individual pitches and their platoon splits; when they don’t check out, maybe it’s worth raising an eyebrow. As an example: Carson Smith and his low arm angle have kind of tilted the movement of his pitches; a right-hander’s movement plot tends to lay out in something close to a 45 degree angle from top left to bottom right. Smith, though, has almost no rise at all on his sinker, and his change actually drops as compared to a spinless pitch (he threw the change just three times to righties last year; 60 to lefties). Meanwhile, if you were to put Smith’s slider into one of Marchi’s categories, the best one might be his “slurve” — the only pitch to have had a greater positive platoon split than Marchi’s true “sinker.” I’m not sure if it’s really a slurve — if you correct for Smith’s tilt, it starts to look more like a tight curve — but based on what we know, we might expect lefties to have more success against Smith than they did in 2015.

There’s not much to teach the Red Sox. I’ve been up and down the pitching staff, and, coincidence or not, they seem to have a pretty good feel for the platoon splits of individual pitches, and no pitcher seems to be crossed up in terms of defying the Marchi numbers. In terms of understanding what we’re seeing, though, I think this movement/platoon split business seems to have a ton of applications. Here’s to trying it out in more contexts in 2016.

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The baseball season is over, and as it falls into history, the new season steps forward to take its place. This process is essentially instantaneous. The Red Sox went from nothing during the playoffs and World Series to the center of the baseball world in a single click of a second hand. Boston is in the unique position of having a stacked farm system, a talent-laden roster, and a GM who had no part in assembling any of it. As such, he’s not nearly as attached to the players in Boston now, thus making it much easier for him to make them players who used to be in Boston. Dave Dombrowski is here to shake things up.

While there is likely to be much wheeling and dealing, the free agent market hangs over Boston’s head like an axe at a beheading. The reason is simple: the last two Red Sox general managers (generals manager?) lost their job due to their failures in the market.

In 2011 John Lackey was coming off his first season in Boston, a 2010 season that saw him throw 215 innings of 4.40 ERA baseball. His strikeouts dipped and his walks jumped. But improvement was expected! It was then not delivered. In fact, Lackey was even worse, throwing 160 innings with an ERA of 6.41 before getting shut down for Tommy John surgery. Lackey had been GM Theo Epstein’s big addition to the pitching staff and now it looked like the Red Sox would pay Lackey three seasons worth of top-of-the-rotation money for a bit under two seasons of awful pitching. What’s more, had Lackey been anywhere near good the Red Sox would have made the playoffs instead of missing in excruciating fashion on the last day of the season.

Then there was Carl Crawford. Crawford showed up to Boston with a new seven year $142 million contract having forgotten how to hit and field. In April Crawford hit .155/.204/.227 and there was no looking back. He wasn’t exactly horrible with the bat after that though he wasn’t fantastic either, but he the overall appearance was a shell of the player who had played All Star-caliber baseball in Tampa just the season before. This was Theo Epstein’s big addition to the offense. Then Crawford got hurt, which, purely from an on-field standpoint, was probably for the best. It was those failures along with some others that signaled the end of Epstein’s time in Boston and with him fellow 2004 hero manager Terry Francona.

Epstein was the GM who had ended the curse not once, but twice. He’d bested the Yankees, he’d built the team and franchise he’d set out to build, and he’d made the Red Sox the greatest organization in baseball from the time he’d taken over to then. But after Crawford and Lackey showed up and sucked horribly, he was gone. That’s a bit of a simplification of course, but it’s roughly correct. Without Epstein’s failures in the free agent market, it’s entirely possible he might still be here.

Time waits for nobody, and in fact, it speeds up like hell when you’re a GM who just gave $90 million to a guy who can’t hit or field.

But he left and was replaced by assistant GM Ben Cherington. Cherington’s Red Sox finished in last place in his first season in charge. Then he hit the market hard. He brought in Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Carp, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, and Koji Uehara. That team won the World Series. Cherington didn’t hit fully on each player, but he got something productive out of each, and in the world of free agency that’s no sure thing. Cherington had turned to the market, supplemented the talent on hand with free agents, and won a World Series. Then 2014 happened and the team failed on the field once again.

Following that failure, for the 2015 season, Cherington decided he needed to upgrade the talent on hand. He went back to the free agent market to bring in Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Justin Masterson. As it turned out, all were horrific failures on a scale that seemingly couldn’t be predicted (maybe Masterson could have). The team cut Masterson mid-season but Sandoval and Ramirez were and are on long term contracts. And they were and are both awful. And the Red Sox finished last again. And that was it, the GM lost his job. Again. Less than two seasons removed from mastering the market and winning a World Series, Cherington had been given the boot hard.

Like Epstein before him, that was it. Unlike Epstein, there wasn’t really any other reason. Epstein squabbled with team president Larry Lucchino, had recently failed in the draft, and a few of his contract extensions were looking like expensive busts. Cherington had no such baggage. He was put out on his backside mostly because Pablo Sandoval went from above average hitter and above average fielder to downright awful at both as soon as he put on a Red Sox uniform. Hanley Ramirez, beyond April when he crushed homer after homer, stopped hitting and put on a display of fielding in left that would make little league teams look away.

Over the next few weeks and months you’re going to hear the Red Sox connected with just about every free agent there is. There will be David Price rumors, Zack Greinke meetings, Johnny Cueto whisperings, anonymous mentions of Jordan Zimmermann, and outright discussions of Chris Davis, Darren O’Day, and anyone else who plays baseball and has no contract. Dombrowski has his preferences and he will try to remake Boston’s roster in that image over the off-season and as he’s already said, that image includes a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. He may want to upgrade the offense with something more certain at first base than Hanley Ramirez, who it just seems like the Red Sox would rather pay to explore water on Mars than to play first base for them next season. It’s possible Dombrowski can do all this through trades but that seems unlikely. He’s probably going to have to sign a free agent or two. Or six.

If Dombrowski is going to give $200 million to David Price or $150 million to Johnny Cueto or whoever or whatever, he had better be certain. No, scratch that. He’d better be whatever word means three times the power of ‘certain’ before doing so. He just got here, and guys who just arrived typically get some time before being held to the fire, but Ben Cherington won a World Series two years ago. Two years ago! Two! And he’s now a visiting professor at Columbia University. Time waits for nobody, and in fact, it speeds up like hell when you’re a GM who just gave $90 million to a guy who can’t hit or field.

If Dombrowski wants to remake the roster and win now at the expense of tomorrow, he’d better be sure about the choices he makes when it comes to free agents. What I’m saying is Dave Dombrowski had better be immune to iocane powder.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Just take a look at the players who were brought in between last winter and the trade deadline during the 2014 season. Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson, Joe Kelly and even Robbie Ross were all brought in with some starting experience, and all of them leaned heavily on ground balls. Each one of those pitchers consistently produced ground-ball rates greater than 50 percent from season to season before coming to Boston.

Overall, that group came in and helped form a pitching staff that was atrocious by some measures, but perfectly fine by others. If you look just at ERA, they were among the worst groups of pitchers in baseball, ranking 25th. Even FIP pegged them as a bad unit, as the Red Sox ranked 22nd in that category. However, things get a lot better when you look at BP’s cFIP and DRA-. Boston put up marks of 100 and 99 in these statistics, respectively, making them an essentially average pitching staff by both a predictive and a descriptive stat. So, depending on how you choose to look at things, the Red Sox either lost because their pitching was so bad, or their pitching did exactly what the team was expecting, and other areas of the roster just failed to meet expectations. The question I’m curious about, though, is whether or not ground balls played a big role in this success (or lack thereof).

Boston’s pitchers induced ground balls just over 45 percent of the time, which ended the year as the 23rd highest mark in the league. It seems fairly obvious that the Red Sox were trying to finish higher than that.

As a staff, it appears the whole ground ball strategy didn’t really work out according to plan. Boston’s pitchers induced ground balls just over 45 percent of the time, which ended the year as the 23rd highest mark in the league. It seems fairly obvious that the Red Sox were trying to finish higher than that. In fact, this is the third straight year in which Boston has finished 23rd or 24th in GB%. Of course, when talking about this pitching staff, one has to mention that it started looking much different than planned relatively early on. By the end of the year, guys Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens had made a big impact on the team’s pitching numbers. So, is that the reason for the lack of ground balls, or did the new acquisitions just not do their job?

We’ll start with Porcello, who was in some ways the face of Boston’s pitching staff. He was the most high-profile addition, and represented that mid-rotation ground-ball-type that they appeared to be targeting. In his first season with the Red Sox, he changed dramatically as a pitcher. For the first time in his career, Porcello finished with a ground ball rate under 51 percent, and it was just the third time he finished under 54 percent. Among the 141 pitchers with at least 100 innings, Porcello’s 47 percent ground ball rate ranked right in the middle of the pack at 71st. The reason for this dramatic drop off is quite simple; he changed who he is as a pitcher. For one thing, he started to lean on his two-seamer rather than his sinker, something he changed as the year went on which, unsurprisingly, led to better results. On top of that, however, his approach on the mound changed. Instead of pounding the bottom of the zone, he tried to attack up in the zone much more often.

It’s entirely possible that many of these pitches were just missed spots from Porcello, but he had enough control this year to suggest that at least a significant part of the difference between these plots were because of a changed approach. While the approach led to more strikeouts, it also led to fewer ground balls, more hits and more home runs. The tradeoff was not worth it.

Miley was the next most prevalent pitcher brought in this year, and was essentially what everyone thought of him before the year. He’s a boring back-end guy who will get ground balls and limit damage most of the time. His ground-ball rate did fall a bit this year, but it wasn’t as dramatic as it was with Porcello and stayed at 50 percent, just missing the top 40 in ground-ball rate. There wasn’t much change in his approach either, as he continued to pound the bottom of the zone and relied on roughly the same pitch mix he always has. The real difference was likely he fact that he faced a DH every time through the order rather than an opposing pitcher.

Next, we look at Masterson, who many have probably forgotten was even on the team for most of the first half. I don’t think it’s unfair to say the Masterson experiment failed on every level, as he was with the team for its worst stretch, and he struggled virtually every time he took the mound. That extended to his ground ball inducing ability as well. While his 52 percent rate looks good in a vacuum, this is a guy whose GB% typically sits near or above 60 percent, making his 2015 mark the lowest of his career and a significant downtick. Like Porcello, Masterson stopped throwing his sinker so much, and also started to throw up in the zone more. However, unlike Porcello, it’s unclear how much of this was strategy and how much was just a bad pitcher pitching badly. With Masterson, it was never clear that a high pitch was part of the plan. Instead, it looked more like a pitcher with very bad command.

Finally, we have Joe Kelly, one of the most strangely divisive pitchers in recent memory. Before coming to the Red Sox in the John Lackey trade last year, he consistently carried ground-ball rates closer to 60 percent than 50 percent. Then, in 2015, he watched that number plummet to 46 percent, a below-average rate. What’s odd is the fact that, per Brooks Baseball, he started throwing more sinkers and sliders. It’s clear his [editor’s note: great] stuff just didn’t work the way it was intended. Once again, we have a Red Sox pitcher who attacked the upper portion of the zone more often than he had previously in his career. However, with Kelly, the change wasn’t dramatic and poor command could easily be to blame.

So, in the end, Boston’s strategy to induce more ground balls in 2015 was a clear failure. The team stayed in the bottom-third of the league, and it’s individual pitchers all watched their ground ball rates fall this season. Of the new acquisitions, only Miley stayed at a 50 percent ground ball rate. Some of this was a change in approach, like with Porcello, that appears to be a misstep by both the pitcher and the coaching staff. Some of it was just a bad pitcher struggling with location. The moral story appears to be building a pitching staff around contact-oriented pitching can easily lead to bad results.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images.

Top Play by WPA: Pedro Martinez and Jason Varitek reuniting. Nothing that followed qualifies.

Bottom Play by WPA: This was one of the worst plays by WPA in the history of my heart.

Key Moment: Probably our franchise cornerstone center fielder getting concussed on an amazing non-catch in a meaningless game, if I had to pick one.

Also Wade Miley is Not Good.

Trend to Watch:  Justin Masterson had the worst stuff of anyone at Fenway today, Tim Wakefield, Pedro Martinez and Luis Tiant included. Aron Ralston has more life left in his right arm.

Also Nomar Garciaparra is starting to look like Robert De Niro.

Coming Up Next: Futility.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

This time we’ll look at an organization that trusted in its process to field a team that currently leads the AL West. Strangely, they also measure things in Altuves. For the first time on the Weekend Preview, here are the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros – Current Record: 47-34 – Projected Record: 87-75

The Astros have raced out to best record in the American League, backed by great performances by Dallas Keuchel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Will Harris. However, George Springer’s broken wrist has taken the young outfielder onto the disabled list, forcing the Astros’ best position player out of the game for roughly six weeks. Nevertheless, the Astros have power in spades. Luis Valbuena is 17th in the league in ISO (.242) despite a .197 batting average. Chris Carter? He’s 30th in the league (.213) with a .198 average. If the Astros make good contact on anything, it’s going a long, long way.

Probables

Dan Straily vs. Justin Masterson, Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Straily first appeared on most everyone’s radar back when he was in the Athletics’ system and striking out 11 batters per nine innings. He’s yet to bring those same numbers to the bigs, as he’s scuffled for most of his major league career. Straily is hurt by the fact that he walks a lot of batters and doesn’t get grounders so his defense can’t help him out. Earlier in his major league career, he allowed too much contact and didn’t get enough whiffs. Now the swinging strikes are trending back up, and batters are making much less contact in the zone than they used to. He’s been solid in the minors this year, and with Brett Oberholtzer going on the DL, he’ll get a chance to stick in the rotation with his start on Friday.

Justin Masterson still throws slow fastballs. Sure, he had a bit of an improvement in his first start back against the Rays, but that fastball barely reached 91. It would help if he could get whiffs despite the lack of velocity, but his swinging strike percentage is the lowest of his career. Contact has spiked, he can’t throw first pitch strikes, and he still walks too many guys. He’s a time bomb. One can only hope he’s on a different team when he goes off.

Collin McHugh vs. Clay Buchholz, July 4th, 1:35 p.m. EDT

McHugh, like Masterson above, has a pretty meh fastball. It doesn’t have amazing velo and it’s as flat as a board. However, he gets his strikeouts from all of the other pitches he uses, such as his fantastic slider. He’ll use it to attack both right- and left-handed handed batters and get out in front of them, as he gets a first-pitch strike over 60% of the time. After a season in which he kept the ball in the park with regularity, McHugh has had some trouble with the homer this year, as he’s given up 1.14 of them per nine innings. His peripherals are fine, but McHugh’s has regressed since last year.

The ERA just continues to plummet for Clay Buchholz. In April, he had a 5.76 ERA. Now, it’s 3.48, and his 2.66 FIP says he’s pitched far, far better than what that shows. He’s gotten less contact on his pitches, especially his fantastic changeup, which almost never stays in the zone, but batters still swing and miss anyway. Speaking of whiffs, he’s getting the most since his first season in the bigs, and he’s back to getting grounders 50% of the time. This Clay could be here to stay.

Lance McCullers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, May 10th, 1:35 p.m. EDT

McCullers is an Astros farm product who got rave reviews on his curveball in the minors, which is undoubtedly nasty. He’s got a good two-seamer to throw off hitters from his flat four-seam fastball, and a changeup that made the jump from fringy to legitimate offering, giving him three good pitches with which to go after MLB hitters. However, what may torpedo a good rookie year is his command. His 3.04 BB/9 is decent, but if it creeps up to the 4.2 marks he had in the minors, he’s gonna have a rough going of it in the majors. Despite those fears, he’s still racked up a 2.19 ERA and a 2.66 FIP, so he’s done well. There’s just some reason to worry going forward.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s main issue lately was tipping his pitches while in the stretch. He looked good against Toronto, but still got hit hard pitching from the stretch, and that seemed related to his tipping problems. Nevertheless, he’s been great in the majors so far this season, giving the Red Sox some much needed talent in the rotation. This start against the Astros and the next one against the Yankees will be his toughest yet, and if he can get past those, he’ll be one of the Sox’ best pitchers – if not players – going forward.

Opposing Lineup

With Springer out, the Astros will need to reshuffle their lineup, but that doesn’t make the top of their starting nine any less imposing.

Jose Altuve – 2B – R – .298/.342/.421, .273 TAv

Carlos Correa – SS – R – .287/.309/.543, .295 TAv

Evan Gattis – DH – R – .239/.269/.446, .260 TAv

Luis Valbuena – 3B – L – .197/.277/.439, .267 TAv

Chris Carter – 1B – R – .198/.314/.411, .271 TAv

Colby Rasmus – LF – L – .247/.321/.485, .301 TAv

Preston Tucker – RF – L – .243/.312/.414, .261 TAv

Domingo Santana- CF – R – .243/.300/.459, .256 TAv (in 40 PA)

Jason Castro – C – L – .214/.277/.375, .235 TAv

There’s a lot of power in this lineup, even without their star right fielder. Colby Rasmus has quietly had a very solid year, and doesn’t even have a platoon split to be seen despite being a left-handed hitter. However, of all the players above, Carlos Correa might be the one to fear the most. He’s hitting everything very hard and very far. Exit velos are through the roof. He’s a dangerous one.

Recap

The Sox have won five of their last seven games, and the Astros have won four straight and are coming off a series sweep against Kansas City. Both teams are hot, and if the Red Sox can somehow shut down the Astros’ power bats, they’ll stand a chance against the best of the AL West.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): This game’s three top plays are represented by Boston’s three homeruns: Pablo Sandoval’s solo shot in the second (.121), David Ortiz’s two-run blast in the fourth (.119) and Alejandro De Aza’s solo bomb in the second (.111). Hitting three homers against one of the game’s best pitchers is no small feat, and it was impressive to see Boston’s hitters capitalize on the few mistakes Archer made at several points.

Worst Play (WPA): There was no singular truly terrible moment for either team in this game. Steven Souza’s strikeout in the bottom of the eight (-.064) gets “top” honors here, but there were five additional plays all within .020 WARP. What’s interesting to note is that the bottom 17 — yes, 17 — plays all belonged to Tampa. That’s a bad day at the office.

Key Moment: The homers were great, and you can argue that Ortiz’s bomb deserves the nod here. But for my money, the key moment in this game came in the bottom of the eighth, when Deven Marrero made a very Dustin Pedroia-esque play to rob Brendan Guyer of a base hit that probably would’ve scored a run. Marrero’s bat clearly isn’t ready for the majors, per his MiLB numbers, but he’s lauded for his glove and here we got to see why. This is all the more impressive when you consider that Marrero has very little experience at the keystone.

Trend to Watch: Justin Masterson was … good? This certainly isn’t a “trend” yet, and the Rays don’t have a great offense, but Masterson struck out six in five innings, scattering five hits without giving up any free passes. Should we be optimistic this will continue? No. But for one night, at least, the much-maligned decision to replace Joe Kelly with Masterson and not Steven Wright or Brian Johnson looks quite justified.

Jerry Remy learning he pronounces things weird is also a key trend.

Last trend: I’m an idiot.

Available Sox SP, ranked: 1) Buch 2) #Ed 3) Porcello 4) Miley 5) Johnson 6) Wright 7) Brock Holt 8) Owens 9) You 10) Kelly Last) Masterson

— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) June 25, 2015

Coming Next: Boston heads up North to take on the Blue Jays in a four-game series that could go a long way toward determining if they buy or sell at the deadline. The Jays have a terrific offense and are, for my money, the scariest team in the division. If Boston takes three out of four, it’s entirely possible they’d “only” be seven or so games out of first. If they tie, lose the series or get swept, well, take a long last look at Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and potentially Koji Uehara and Clay Buchholz.

The good news is Boston’s four best pitchers are toeing the rubber, and yes this is sarcastic.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox, as you may know, have been bad this season. They’ve been especially bad against AL East opponents, and even worse on the road. That spells trouble for the Sox this weekend as they begin a seven-game divisional road trip in St. Petersburg to take on the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at the Trop. Let’s look at what to expect as these teams meet for the third time this season.

Tampa Bay Rays – Current Record 41-33 – Projected Record 86-76

After a fourth-place finish in 2014, the Rays were projected to finish near the bottom of the standings once again this season. It made sense. Tampa lost manager Joe Madden to the Cubs, dealt David Price at the deadline and Ben Zobrist in the offseason, making an already underwhelming roster look even worse on paper. What the Rays have accomplished thus far has been downright impressive. They sit in first place, have one of the best rotations in baseball despite being depleted by injuries and show no signs of slowing down.

Probables

Rick Porcello vs. Alex Colome, Friday, 7:10 p.m.

Is there a bigger bang-your-head-against-the-wall pitcher in baseball right now than Rick Porcello? If so, I’d rather not meet him. Watching Porcello has been nothing short of maddening. Just look to Saturday in Kansas City as evidence of that. The right-hander looked strong through the first four innings, and was even handed a 4-1 lead. But he imploded for five runs in the fifth inning, turning a comfortable advantage into his sixth straight loss. Porcello’s inability to compile shutdown innings is only part of the problem. As Ryan Morrison pointed out this week, Porcello’s biggest issue this season has been his pitch selection and location. Porcello is using his four-seamer and his changeup more than ever, and leaving more pitches up and getting crushed by hitters. Although he’s getting more strikeouts, Porcello’s 5.61 ERA and 1.35 HR/9 is telling of where he is right now.

Fortunately for Porcello, his counterpart, righty Alex Colome, has been prone to clunkers as well. Colome has allowed five or more runs in three games this season, striking out fewer batters, walking more and surrendering more homers than Porcello. Colome, however, has been much better lately, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He was especially strong in his last outing Sunday, tossing a one-hit shutout with four strikeouts over seven innings. Colome is at his best when his command is on, something he showed in April when he shut down the Sox in Boston.

Wade Miley vs. Matt Andriese, Saturday, 4:10 p.m.

Wade Miley has been strong in his two starts since the dugout meltdown with John Farrell in Baltimore, combining for two runs in consecutive victories. Miley had one of his most impressive outings of the season Sunday, holding the All-Star-laden Royals scoreless over six innings while working in a good pitch mix. The lefty threw four of his five pitches 19 or more times, getting whiffs on 15 percent of his changeups and 13.8 percent of his sliders. He finished with just two strikeouts, his lowest total over his last four starts, but overcame trouble and command issues by keeping hitters off-balance. Miley’s repertoire is certainly an asset, and will be key if he is to remain effective.

The Red Sox have a bad habit of making little-known starters look like aces. That reality must have Matt Andriese chomping at the bit despite seeing mixed results in his two-and-a-half-month major league career. The Rays initially brought the righty up as a reliever, but injuries to Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore and recently Jake Odorizzi forced Andriese into the rotation. Andriese isn’t going to pile up strikeouts, but he has decent command and mid-90s velocity on his fastball and sinker to go with good swing-and-miss ability on his cutter. Andriese’s longest outing this season lasted 5.2 innings, so it’s essential for him to be aggressive in the strike zone and avoid working high pitch counts early.

Justin Masterson vs. Chris Archer, Sunday, 1:10 p.m.

Joe Kelly has finally lost his spot in the Red Sox’s starting rotation. His replacement? None other than Justin Masterson. It’s not much of an upgrade, but it’s at least worth watching. Masterson was placed on the disabled list in mid-May with what was described as “right shoulder tendinitis” after sporting a 5.26 FIP through seven starts this season. The righty made four rehab starts in the minor leagues and had a 3.29 ERA and 7.90 K/9 in three starts in Triple-A Pawtucket. Masterson was originally moved to the bullpen upon activation, but never made an appearance. Sunday will be crucial in him earning a starting spot again.

Archer finds himself in some elite company so far this season, all while carrying a team that lacks in offensive prowess and has had four starting pitchers on the disabled list. The righty has allowed one run or fewer in 10 starts this season, tying him for second in the majors with Max Scherzer and one behind Zack Greinke, who has 11. Archer boasts an upper-90s fastball and a deadly swing-and-miss slider, lifting him to a 10.75 K/9 as he’s reached double-digit punchouts in four starts this season. Archer is more than just the guy calling out David Ortiz for admiring home runs. He’s now a dominant force on the mound who owns a 2.23 FIP and a major league leading 2.79 PWARP.

Opposing Lineup

The Rays have stuck with a consistent lineup throughout the season, with the only change coming when James Loney went on the disabled list with a fractured finger. Jake Elmore has since moved to first base, leaving Tampa with a righty-heavy lineup.

Kevin Kiermaier – CF – L – .267/.303/.435, .284 TAv
Joey Butler – DH – R – .327/.367/.503, .317 TAv
Evan Longoria – 3B –R – .274/.356/.409, .292 TAv
David DeJesus – LF – L – .291/.349/.430, .291 TAv
Logan Forsythe – 2B – R – .292/.374/.451, .308 TAv
Steven Souza – RF – R – .228/.321/.448, .280 TAv
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS – S – .206/.262/.327, .216 TAv
Jake Elmore – 1B – R – .245/.290/.327, .241 TAv
Rene Rivera – C – R – .162/.203/.262, .170 TAv

The Rays are 23rd in baseball with a .260 team TAv. They’ve relied heavily on the top of their order, which was hindered by Loney’s injury, to produce, and have yet to get much out of offseason signing Asdrubal Cabrera. Like many of its successful teams over the past seven years, Tampa’s lineup is essentially Evan Longoria and a bunch of no-names. But enough of those no-names have excelled to make it work.

Recap

Despite numerous setbacks, Tampa Bay continues to prove itself as a legitimate contender in the American League. But with some favorable matchups – aside from Masterson vs. Archer  – and better play of late, the Sox may be set to turn their fortunes against the AL East leaders. However, if this season has taught us anything, prepare for the worst, Red Sox fans.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images