That’s early-season baseball. We know that, at this point in the year, the samples are too small to reach any meaningful conclusions. However, we’ve been waiting all winter for baseball, and it’s human nature to overreact to what we’ve seen thus far. It is, after all, the only data points we have, so why wouldn’t we pay attention to them?

All this brings me to Mookie Betts, who has gotten off to a distressingly slow start. If you asked all Red Sox fans before the season who the most reliable hitter in the lineup would be, Betts would’ve been one of the two most popular answers along with David Ortiz. Nothing he had shown in his first year-plus in the majors led us to believe that failure was a possibility. On April 21, there clearly haven’t been enough games to change our minds on that. Nevertheless, we’re only human, so no one can blame you if that little bit of doubt starts creeping into the back of your mind, regardless of your more logical senses.

Nothing Betts had shown in his first year-plus in the majors led us to believe that failure was a possibility.

[Editor’s note: the following stats do not reflect Betts’ 2-for-3 night with two walks and a homer on Wednesday. Thank you to Matt for jinxing him into success]

Just 59 plate appearances into the season, Betts has been among the worst hitters in the game. As of this writing, he’s batting .207/.220/.345, culminating in a .196 TAv. Needless to say, there haven’t been many bright spots in his surface numbers. He’s not walking at all, carrying a 1.7 percent walk-rate. He’s striking out way more than he ever has, with a 27.1 percent K-rate. He’s also not getting any hits to drop, putting up a .250 BABIP after showing the talent to carry an above-average rate so far in his short career.

Looking a little bit deeper, what we want to find out is whether there is really anything to worry about, or if we’re just overreacting like that kid who’s stuck home from school.

We’ll start with the plate discipline, because that is the most jarring portion of Betts’ early season struggles. The good news is, despite the decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts, he hasn’t suddenly turned into an ultra-aggressive hitter. He’s swinging at essentially the same rate as he did last season, and his swing rate on pitches out of the zone has actually decreased substantially. However, he is having some trouble making contact through the first few weeks of the season. This is particularly shocking considering his ability to make contact was one of his premiere carrying tools last year. In 2015, he had one of the 15 lowest swinging-strike rates among the 122 MLB players who saw at least 2000 pitches. This year, though, he’s fallen back to a rate that would’ve finished as the 40th lowest, a far more middling number.

The big issue has been pitches out of the zone, as his contact rate on strikes hasn’t fallen by a significant margin. Instead, he’s been unable to do anything with pitches out of the zone, whether that means poking them the other way or simply fouling them off. Looking at his zone profile, it’s clear that pitchers are taking advantage of him on balls down and away.

Unsurprisingly, given the patterns of that whiff profile, breaking balls are the pitches giving him the most trouble. Particularly, Betts has struggled more than usual against curveballs. While his whiff rate has risen slightly against sliders, it’s gotten significantly worse against curveballs thus far in 2016. To wit, he’s whiffed on a third of his swings against the pitch, and all of his batted balls have been either ground balls or pop ups. We’re dealing with tiny samples, of course, but it’s a trend to watch as Betts tries to right his ship.

The good news is, beyond those plate discipline issues, everything else looks good. One of the reasons Bettsm was able to succeed last year was through spraying the ball all over the field. He’s been able to do that again this year, and while he hasn’t had much success to the opposite field, one would expect that to change. Betts is also carrying a similar batted-ball profile as last season, with a few more grounders and fewer fly balls, but no major differences. Even more encouraging is that his power appears to be present, as his average fly-ball distance is 20 feet longer than last year. Much of that is small-sample noise, but keep in mind that this is coming during the coldest point of the season when balls typically don’t fly as far. Finally, his exit velocity is right in line with where it was last season against all types of pitches.

It’d be nice to see Mookie hitting the ball as hard as he was at the end of 2015, but that’s asking for a lot. With all that data in mind, it’s hard to imagine Betts not getting back to at least an average BABIP, which will do wonders for his production.

Realistically, there’s no reason to worry about Betts just a couple weeks into the season. Of course, that won’t necessarily prevent us from thinking irrationally. It’s true that there are some mildly troubling signs. Most notably his inability to fight off breaking balls down and away. Moving forward, pitchers will likely try to exploit this trend. Knowing what we know about Betts, it’s likely he’ll make the adjustment and get back on track in short order.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Yet over the last few years, they’ve seen a big drop off in that power production. It’s true that the entire league has suffered from a similar drop, but Boston’s fall has been disproportional. Two years ago, they finished the season with the 23rd-highest ISO in the league. Gross. They weren’t quite as bad in 2015, but they still finished in the bottom half of the league with the 17th-best ISO. So, as they try to put together a bounce-back campaign in 2016, can the Red Sox expect an uptick in power to put them on par with their past World Series-winning lineups?

We’ll go through most of the lineup in this space, but there’s no better place to start than with David Ortiz. He’s been the one constant throughout the time period mentioned above, and he’s hardly shown any signs of slowing down. Despite approaching 40, he hit at least 30 dingers in each of the last three seasons, including a whopping 37 last year.

Now in his age-40 season, there is certainly some extra injury risk that didn’t exist earlier in his career. Nevertheless, as long as Ortiz is on the field, he should still provide the same power as ever. Although he carried the 13th-highest HR/FB% in the league last year, and some could look at that as luck, it was merely a percentage point higher than his career average. Combine that with his still-elite average fly-ball distance, and it’s clear Ortiz is still a home-run machine. He didn’t waste any time reminding us in 2016, mashing his first homer of the year on Opening Day in 30-degree weather and his second homer in game two.

However, beyond Ortiz, the Red Sox face plenty of questions about how much power the rest of their lineup can provide. There are a few players who will be key in determining whether Boston can approach new heights in the power department. One of them is Hanley Ramirez, who is the default wildcard for any post like this. To be fair, he wasn’t a power black hole last year, as his .177 ISO wasn’t too far out of whack from his performance in recent years. Still, those years came in Dodger Stadium and Marlins Park before that, and one would’ve been reasonable to expect an increase in power from Ramirez upon moving to Fenway Park.

The deficiency, relative to expectations, occurred for two main reasons. The first was the shoulder injury Hanley suffered at the start of May. Prior to that, he was battling with Nelson Cruz for the league’s early home-run lead. However, after that he stopped pulling the ball, which greatly hampered his production given his .352 ISO on balls he hits to left field over his career.

Ramirez also saw a huge decrease in average fly-ball distance in 2015, finishing the year among such notable sluggers as James McCann and Rene Rivera.

Ramirez also saw a huge decrease in average fly-ball distance in 2015, finishing the year among such notable sluggers as James McCann and Rene Rivera. There was also the issue of confidence, or lack thereof, stemming from his atrocious defensive performance. It’s hard to quantify what kind of effect that had, but it’s easy to say it didn’t help one bit. With a healthy shoulder and a (possibly) better chance to succeed in the field, an ISO pushing .200 isn’t at all out of the question for Ramirez this year.

Yet Ramirez isn’t the biggest wildcard in the power department. That title belongs to Xander Bogaerts. Based purely on prospect pedigree, he should be a major contributor to the team’s overall ISO. He was never going to be Ortiz, but the expectation was that Bogaerts would be a power-hitting shortstop in the mold of Ramirez. If he’s ever going to reach those heights, though, he’ll need to completely overhaul the offensive approach he’s shown at the major-league level. Specifically, he needs to hit the ball in the air every once in awhile. My gut says that he’ll start hitting for the type of power many expected from him, even if he doesn’t fully realize that potential in 2016. That’s based entirely on scouting reports and makeup, though. Statistically speaking, Bogaerts hasn’t shown much of a power track record.

Of course, even if Bogaerts does have his power breakout and Ramirez does crush the ball with a healthy shoulder and new position, there will be regression elsewhere in the lineup. It starts with Travis Shaw, who didn’t play all year in 2015 but crushed the ball when he did. He finished the year with a .217 ISO after never showing anything near that ability in his minor-league career. On top of that, his high HR/FB ratio wasn’t backed up at all by a middle-of-the-pack average fly-ball distance, suggesting some regression is on the way.

On the other hand, Shaw’s power may not regress as much as some think. He has stated that a big reason for his success in Boston is the superior advanced scouting tools available at the major-league level. He won’t continue as a .200+ ISO hitter, but Shaw could certainly settle in the .175 range rather than .150.

Jackie Bradley is the other regression candidate in this lineup. There’s really no sane way to explain what the Red Sox outfielder did in 2015. He was horrible for long periods of the season, but then he put together an absurd six-week stretch in which he hit like Barry Bonds. That hot stretch helped him finish the year with a .250 ISO. It should go without saying that figure will come down, and based on his track record, it could come down by a good 100 points. Still, he didn’t hit cheap home runs during his hot streak, and the power is clearly in there, so like Shaw I could see Bradley retaining more power than his track record suggests.

Beyond those mentioned above, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Blake Swihart should be expected to stay around the same level they were at in 2015. Betts should push a .200 ISO again, but not quite get there with a swing built more for doubles than homers. Pedroia proved that his power deficiency in the past was based on injury, not skill. Swihart hits a ton of line drives, but that leads to more singles than extra-base hits.

So, after all this, I’m still unsure if the Red Sox will be able to improve their power numbers from the past couple seasons. On the one hand, Ortiz is still around, Ramirez should hit for more power and the black hole at third base should be gone. On the other hand, most of that will be cancelled out by some expected regression from Shaw and Bradley.

In the end, it all comes down to Bogaerts. If he meets his power potential, the Red Sox could get back within the top-third in the league in ISO and power production. If he continues his line-drive approach from last year, they’ll have to contend with a lineup that’s unlike their other World Series-winning clubs.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

Of course, the lack of ground balls generated and the subsequently poor pitching was not the only reason for Boston’s poor season. For most of the year, the lineup was just as — if not more — disappointing. Looking at the numbers, Red Sox batters hitting the ball on the ground with frequency was likely just as harmful as pitchers failing to produce them.

By the end of the year, the Red Sox offense hit the ninth-most ground balls in all of baseball, but the White Sox were the only American League team to hit more. The performances of three hitters in particular led to this issue, as each of them saw a large increase in ground-ball rate compared to their previous seasons. As it turns out, the Red Sox will need improvement from all three in 2016. Let’s try to figure out why these three batters had trouble hitting the ball in the air.

Hanley Ramirez

Here’s a shock: We’re talking about a deficiency from the 2015 season, and Hanley Ramirez was one of the main culprits. The now-first baseman went from a steady ground-ball rate around 45 percent throughout his career heading into last season before ending the year with a single-season rate just over 50 percent. It’s not the first time he’s hit this many ground balls, but it is a stark increase over each of his last three campaigns.

Looking more closely at his breakdown, it appears Hanley’s problems began against fastballs. Per Brooks Baseball, he’s produced a ground-ball rate ranging from 42 to 46 percent against “hard” pitches over the last three years. In 2015, that number rose to 53 percent. His shoulder injury immediately jumps to mind in this case, but even in April his GB% against hard pitches was 50 percent. As it turns out, pitchers changed their approach a bit with him, throwing more fastballs in on his hands than in years past.

Sure enough, the strategy worked. Ramirez couldn’t make solid contact on the pitches, leading to ground balls on almost every ball put in play against one of those offerings.

It’s possible that the injury did lead to bat speed problems later in the year — his GB% against hard pitches did get above 60 percent by late summer. Whether he needs to back up off the plate or get his bat through the zone more quickly, he’ll need to figure out how to offset this. That, for the first time in his career, less than 30% of Hanley’s balls in play last season were fly balls is telling. He simply didn’t drive the ball in the manner the Red Sox were hoping for.

Pablo Sandoval

Here’s a shock: We’re talking about a deficiency from the 2015 season, and Pablo Sandoval was one of the main culprits. As an aggressive hitter with decent-but-not-great power, hitting line drives at a high rate has always been his bread and butter. Grounders are his kryptonite.

Last season, Sandoval watched his ground-ball rate rise to just over 49 percent from a 43-percent rate the year before. It was a similar gain to Ramirez, but Sandoval’s was the result of poor performance against breaking balls. He had trouble with the curve, if you will.

From 2012 through 2014, his GB% against sliders was just 33 percent. Last season, it rose to 44 percent. Similarly, his three-year rate versus curveballs sat at 47 percent, but it climbed all the way up to a whopping 58 percent in 2015. There wasn’t much of a change in approach with breaking balls against Sandoval. Good breaking balls end up down in the zone, and that’s where they stayed last year. However, the number of grounders he hit on those pitches clearly increased.

The problem zone appears to be on breaking balls down and away when he’s hitting from the left side. He’s going to have to be more selective in 2016, or at least foul those pitches off rather than roll them back to the pitcher.

Xander Bogaerts

Here’s a shock: We’re talking about a deficiency from the 2015 season, and Xander Bogaerts was one of the main culprits. Wait. This one actually is a shock. The overall results were good for the young shortstop in 2015, but there’s no denying he’ll need to change his approach if he wants similar production. Bogaerts’ increase in GB% from his first full season to his second was jarring.

After hitting grounders just 31 percent of the time in 2014, that number climbed all the way up to 54 percent in 2015. Unsurprisingly, he had a ton of luck on those pitches, finishing the year with a .322 BABIP on grounders compared to a league average of .236. As one would expect with an increase like this, it’s hard to pin down one area in which Bogaerts needs to improve. His GB% went up against virtually every pitch, and as you can see from the visual, it rose in almost every section of the zone.

It’s a striking way to look at things for a player who had such a good season. The only suggestion here would be to show a bit more patience and wait on pitches that he can drive. Offerings away and off the plate in particular are ones that Bogaerts should be laying off.

***

Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are the obvious players who the Red Sox need improvement from if they’re going to succeed in 2016.  They’re the story of spring training, and fewer ground balls — or, put another way, better contact — will go a long way towards that improvement.

Boston doesn’t need improvement from Bogaerts, as he was a clear net positive in 2016. With that being said, if he plans on producing at the same rate, he’ll need to get back closer to his 2014 GB%. Luckily, he’s shown an ability to adjust throughout his pro career, and should be able to do so again. All three of these players hope to be big parts of the Red Sox lineup in 2016, and their ground-ball tendencies will be key to their production as the season officially gets underway.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): To the surprise of no one, the top play from this game was the one that resulted in the first and deciding run. In the top of the second, with Eddie Rosario on second, Chris Herrmann hit a double off the Green Monster (0.106) to drive in the first run of the game. Although it wouldn’t have changed the result, it was one of a few plays in which Carlos Peguero looked downright Hanley-like out in left field. Luckily for the Red Sox, Rick Porcello would settle down after this inning. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t matter.

Bottom Play (WPA): Boston’s offense was unable to get any runs across the plate, and only threatened to do so once. In the bottom of the third inning, Peguero and Dustin Pedroia put together a two-out rally and set up a second and third situation for Brock Holt. The Red Sox’s super utility man couldn’t take advantage of the situation. He grounded out to shortstop (-0.069) (nice) to end the rally. Boston wouldn’t put another runner on base all night.

Key Moment: It’s hard to find a key moment in a game that had very few actual moments. Holt’s ground out is really the only possibility here, as it’s the only time the Red Sox offense had any semblance of a pulse, and the only time we had the illusion of something positive happening.

Trends to Watch: The first trend to discuss is Boston’s perpetually disappointing offense. Remember when they scored six runs in the afternoon game? Yeah, that didn’t last long. After making Mike Pelfrey look like Pedro Martinez on Tuesday, the Red Sox made Trevor May look like Randy Johnson last night. At some point, the talent in this lineup has to win out, but there haven’t been any signs of that coming in the near future.

On a more positive note, Rick Porcello had a much-needed strong outing. After two consecutive rough starts, he put the home run issues behind him and strung together eight good innings. He struggled with hard contact a bit in the first two innings, but was great for the next six. As Boston’s rotation continues to evolve, it’ll need more performances like this from Porcello if it’s going to be a successful unit.

Coming Next: The Red Sox and Twins finish off their series tomorrow afternoon with Steven Wright facing off against Tommy Milone. Wright has been surprisingly solid in his spot starts, and is likely fighting for a permanent role with Joe Kelly now that Eduardo Rodriguez has likely taken claim of a permanent spot of his own. Milone, meanwhile, could be the perfect pitcher to snap Boston’s lineup out of his slump.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images