LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Going into this season the Red Sox were due to spend $22 million on new left fielder Hanley Ramirez, $13 million for Shane Victorino, $10.5 million for Rusney Castillo, $5.5 million for Allen Craig and $1.85 million for Daniel Nava. During the season they also brought in Alejandro De Aza and the remainder of his $5.5 million contract. Those five guys will cost Boston $52.85 million this season alone. Of the possible 309 games started, those players have started not nearly enough. Victorino was traded to Anaheim with the vast majority of his remaining contract Boston’s responsibility. Nava is now DFA’d and it looks like a similar story may take place there as well. Castillo and Craig spent the majority of the season as the most expensive duo in International League history or, if not (because I’m not researching that), then darn close. The upshot is that, despite the money, next year’s Red Sox outfield will likely be much different than this year’s version. There may even be room for Jackie Bradley!

Two paragraphs in now and I haven’t mentioned Bradley until the last sentence, but as you are now seeing, that trend is over! Bradley, the former first-round pick and forgotten member of the 2013 team is up and contributing, or at least playing. He even had a hit yesterday in the Red Sox’s bizarre route of Chris Sale and the White Sox. Bradley, a left-handed hitter, even even had a hit off of Chris Sale on an 0-2 count. In his career Sale has allowed a line of .151/.177/.201 after falling behind 0-2, while lefties have a .510 OPS against him. Bradley is hitting .121/.211/.212 this season, so he fits right in. The hit itself wasn’t a wonder or anything. Sale threw him a crappy slider that spun weakly across the center of the plate. He’s lucky he wasn’t facing David Ortiz when he threw that pitch or it would have ended up over the Monster and four runs would have scored instead of landing relatively harmlessly in front of the center fielder for an RBI single. That’s not to take anything away from Bradley. He’s not Ortiz and he shouldn’t try to be. He got a bad pitch and even on an 0-2 count when he was likely looking to be defensive he was able to deal with the change of speeds and line it back up the middle. That’s good!

It also illustrates the great thing about Bradley. To be effective, he doesn’t have to crush the ball like Ortiz, or Ramirez, or anyone else who crushes the ball. In fact, if he crushes the ball like Ryan Hanigan, he’ll be a perfectly good starting center fielder. His otherworldly defense at a premium position sees to that. Forget .500: Bradley doesn’t have to slug .400 or get on base at a .370 clip to be a worthwhile player. It wouldn’t hurt, but his bar is set lower. That’s partially why his inability to hit even remotely well in the majors has been so disappointing. It’s not like he had to hit well, he just had to not hit putridly.

Bradley just turned 25 years old. He’s still young. He’s still improving and he still has skills both in the field and at the plate.

Which brings us to today, right now. The Red Sox now have almost 60 games to spend on knowledge. They have almost 60 games wherein the outcome does not matter at all beyond individual performance in so far as it sets up the team for success next season. If Rick Porcello can find his sinker and Rusney Castillo can find some power and Hanley Ramirez can find the ball (he knows he had it here somewhere!) the 2016 Red Sox will be better off for it. While the team’s outfield depth was a pronounced failure this season, that doesn’t mean they won’t try to assemble similar outfield depth for 2016. A part of that depth will likely be Bradley, and this is why a simple line drive off the bat of the ninth place hitter brings me to my feet in a late July game weeks after the season was lost. The Red Sox’s best defensive alignment certainly does not include Hanley Ramirez, no matter what strides he makes over the next two plus months. Next season he may find himself at first, at DH, or still in left field, but don’t think for a second the Red Sox aren’t aware that their lineup problems are significantly lessened if Ramirez is not a part of the outfield.

An outfield without Hanley Ramirez opens up a spot though, right? Victorino and Nava are gone. Craig is off the 40 man roster and his power stroke is as off the roster as Victorino and Nava. That leaves Mookie Betts, who will have a spot somewhere. It leaves Castillo, who we will presumably learn more about over the next two months, but who looks like a candidate to play somewhere in the outfield come 2016. And it leaves … Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Red Sox minor league system may be highly rated, but one thing it does not offer is major league-ready outfielders. Bryce Brentz might carve out a major league career for himself, but it won’t likely be as a full-time starter. Manuel Margo is 20 years old, Andrew Benintendi is in Lowell, and that rounds out the outfielders among the Sox Prospects top 20. Some believe Garin Cecchini may yet hit, but even if so he’s hardly a strong prospect to start in the outfield. After that there is no Dana, only Zuul.

Bradley brings world-class defense to the table, something no other Red Sox prospect can offer, and he brings (still) a strong minor league track record. As recently as a few days ago, Bradley was hitting .305/.382/.472 in Triple-A. Pawtucket isn’t Boston but it’s also not meaningless. Bradley just turned 25 years old. He’s still young. He’s still improving and he still has skills both in the field and at the plate. Ramirez can’t field, Castillo might not be able to hit, and the rest of the cast has left the stage never to return. There might be a place on the Red Sox for Jackie Bradley after all.

That might not be such a bad thing, either. Bradley has certainly given new meaning to the term “struggling” in his time with Boston, but the fact that he’s succeeded in Pawtucket (he has an .816 OPS over parts of three season there) and everywhere else he’s played in the minors means he very likely has the skills to hit enough in Boston. Remember how he struggled in Triple-A after his long and failed stint as the starting center fielder last season? He turned that around this season and crushed Triple-A pitching.

Bradley doesn’t have to OPS .900 to succeed in Boston. His defense is good enough that an OPS in the low 700s will do the trick. The fact that he’s getting another opportunity to play in Boston this season may turn out to be a silver lining in the dark cloud that has been 2015. The Red Sox might have an opening in their major league outfield next season and they’ll be much better off both financially and defensively if that opening can be filled by Jackie Bradley. Shockingly, there’s a chance it might, which is more of a chance than just about anyone though possible in March. So I guess toss that on the top of the pile of weirdness that is the 2015 Red Sox season.

Photo by Brett Davis/USA Today Sports Images

In terms of selling, the situation for the Red Sox is dire. This team was built to win, and had the prospects and money to afford top-tier starters when the deadline came calling. Since the whole winning thing isn’t happening, Ben Cherington’s best course of action is see who has interest in any one of the guys whose contracts are up at the end of the season. Unfortunately, most of them are scuffling. His hands are effectively tied.

But what if the Red Sox decided to become buyers anyway? Obviously they wouldn’t go for rentals, but what if the Sox looked for players who will still be under contract for the next season or longer? This line of thinking isn’t too outlandish when you look at the resources the organization still has.

Their impressive collection of prospects is still intact. Guys like Deven Marrero and Garin Cecchini are effectively blocked at the major league level, and the Red Sox have no reason to start them over the players blocking them. There are even guys deeper in the system, like Carlos Asuaje, who are likely to be beaten out by better, younger players at the same position, such as Yoan Moncada. The trade chips are there.

They’ll have some money to work with after the season ends. Contracts will expire – most notably Mike Napoli’s, if he’s not traded – and who knows if the front office will try to trade a big contract for salary relief. B-Ref projects Boston’s salary in 2016 for just under $160 million, and that includes all potential contract options being picked up – which is essentially $23 million for another year of Buchholz and Ortiz. You could fit an entire big contract in the gap between that and the luxury tax threshold, should the Sox care to stay under it.

Having taken inventory on Boston’s resources, the discussion comes down to potential targets. Two young pitchers who should get more attention than they do are Tyson Ross of the Padres and the Braves’ Julio Teheran.

Ross isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2016, and the Padres have been listening to overtures concerning his availability. While he boasts a 3.45 ERA, Ross has been rolling with a 2.75 FIP despite a high opposing BABIP and a BB/9 in the fours. I don’t know about you, but any pitcher who can strike out nine or more per 9 IP with a ground ball rate over 55% gets me salivating.

Teheran doesn’t exactly seem like a big candidate to be traded, but the Braves are acting like he’s still available. He’s had a rough year so far, but apart from his most recent start against the Orioles, he’s looked much better in July. Teheran’s contract isn’t even his rookie deal anymore – the Braves signed him to a six-year, $32 million contract. That means no arbitration, and the most expensive he’ll be is $11 million in 2019. Young, relatively inexpensive pitchers are usually worth a gamble.

The Red Sox don’t have to sit on their hands and wait for someone to offer a bucket of Dubble Bubble for either Napoli or Alejandro De Aza.

Sure, there are other options out there, like Carlos Carrasco and even Aroldis Chapman. However, the point is that there are options. The Red Sox don’t have to sit on their hands and wait for someone to offer a bucket of Dubble Bubble for either Napoli or Alejandro De Aza. They can go both ways. Cherington can rid the team of expiring contracts while still reeling in a pitcher who is under contract for 2016 or longer. It’ll be a step in the right direction, and could jump-start the offseason retooling period that is expected to happen.

The Rangers just presented a good example of this. Their acquisition of Cole Hamels wasn’t solely for 2015 – it was so they could pair him with Yu Darvish and have a killer starting pitcher duo in 2016. Texas can still sell as well, since Yovani Gallardo seems like a prime candidate to be shipped off to a team such as the Giants. The Red Sox can do this. It’s not unheard of. This type of management at the deadline isn’t crazy.

The trade of Shane Victorino was a good first step. While Josh Rutledge shouldn’t be the answer to anything except “Who did the Red Sox get back in that trade?” it gave Rusney Castillo two months to get acclimated to the majors. Now’s the time when the hard choices have to be made. The Red Sox have until this afternoon to decide whether to try and get a pitcher they desire, or be content with only selling what little they have. They have the ability and the resources to get what they need for 2016 now. The Red Sox have everything to gain from buying and selling at the same time.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

You may not have heard this, but the end of this week is the non-waiver trade deadline. With the season is disrepair the Red Sox should be seen as sellers, although that term frightens people so the powers that be offer tempered comments like “we are preparing for the next great Red Sox team.” That is a fine sentiment, but it probably involves getting rid of a bunch of current players (i.e., selling). Shane Victorino was the first to go, traded to Anaheim where he will get to watch Mike Trout do Mike Trout things from left field and, probably, his reserved seat on the disabled list. More on SHANF below. Other players who could be moved, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, include Mike Napoli, Alejandro De Aza, Jackie Bradley Jr., Wade Miley and Junichi Tazawa. That is not exactly a murderer’s row of options there. And that is the problem the team faces. They are sellers without a whole lot of stuff that will bring a good return. While it is still the best course of action to move the pieces they can and take chances on B- or C-level prospects, it seems unlikely that Ben Cherington and company are going to be able to get some magic beans for their unproductive cows. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe did an excellent job tracking the Red Sox‘s history at the trade deadline, and found that they almost always do something, and when in the position they are currently in the standings the moves are motivated by improving next season’s club. So expect a move or two more over the rest of the week, and look forward to next year.

I would be remiss if I did not include some discussion of Pedro Martinez’s induction into the Hall of Fame. Pedro is a legend in Boston, among other places. His 1999 and 2000 seasons, a time when offense ruled the game, are two of the best pitching seasons in the history of the game. The Boston Globe’s coverage of Pedro’s call to the Hall over the last couple of weeks has been excellent. But this piece about his pitch repertoire, with graphics of his grips, pitch movement, and statistical trends, stands out as must read/see stuff. Pedro the pitcher is one thing, but perhaps equally impressive as his on-field performances are his efforts off the field to be a symbol of possibility for the Dominican Republic, and Latin America generally. At a time when we have a moronic, multi-million dollar radio host denigrating the intelligence of an entire nation in as casual a manner as possible, there was Pedro, standing on-stage in Cooperstown, proudly representing his country by wearing a jacket with Dominican Republic patches, completing a large section of his speech in Spanish, repeatedly thanking his country and its people for their ongoing love and support, and finishing by waving the Dominican flag with fellow countryman and Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal. Christopher Gasper of The Boston Globe has more on Pedro’s desire to be and position as an image of hope for so many. All told, Pedro is certainly an indelible figure in the history of the game.

If you want more Pedro Martinez coverage I recommend Baseball Prospectus’ celebration of him and the other members of the Hall Class of 2015.

Quick Hits

The “who is the ace of the rotation?” question has turned into a punchline as the season progresses, but the performance of Red Sox starters has been anything but amusing. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal digs deeper into how the Red Sox might get on the right path to finding an ace, explicitly examining comments made by Ben Cherington about how difficult it can be to do so.

As noted above, the Red Sox first move at the deadline was to trade oft-injured outfielder Shane Victorino to the Angels for Triple-A infielder Josh Rutledge. While Victorino has been mostly useless the past two seasons (63 games played, 0.4 WARP), he was undoubtedly a critical part of the stunning run to the 2013 World Series Championship; a time that he looks upon very fondly. Peter Abraham describes Victorino’s emotional final press conference in Boston for The Boston Globe.

With Victorino out of the mix, a space in the outfield was made available for players like Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Craig and, even Daniel Nava. The Red Sox have opted for their multi-million dollar Cuban, once again passing Bradley Jr. over for a chance at promotion, who, as Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com details, is having a tremendous season at Pawtucket.

On the day his buddy entered the Hall of Fame, David Ortiz was candid in talking about Pedro, calling him “the most unbelievable human being I have been around.” Ortiz then went out and had a wondrous night on the field, adding to an already strong resume for Hall of Fame consideration, something he admits has been on his mind of late.

Three Good Game Stories

Things reached a real nadir for the Red Sox last week, but then, as Adam Kurkjian of BostonHerald.com notes in his game story, the future core of Mookie Betts, Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts came through with a winning sequence to break the slump.

Sunday was a big day for the Red Sox organization with Pedro Martinez entering the Hall of Fame, but, as Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com writes that, it was also a big day for the Red Sox on the field as David Ortiz mashed them to a win over the Tigers.

All the fun of Sunday was swept away on Monday by another brutal Joe Kelly outing, who gave up four runs in the first inning and had no rhythm, but tells Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe that he will continue to fight hard to establish himself as an effective pitcher.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

An important part of the World Series–winning 2013 squad, Victorino had been rendered ineffective by injuries and made expendable in the last year of his three-year, $39 million deal with Boston. He’s played just 63 games since the start of 2014, hitting .258/.312/.346 between all-too-frequent stops on the disabled list. His star had fallen so much that the Red Sox sent $3.8 million along with him to the Angels to get back Josh Rutledge, a 26-year-old infielder without a true position who has been dealt twice in the last eight months.

Read the complete article here on Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The good news: By the time it was over, I totally forgot.

Top Play (WPA): Boston and Chicago treated the lead like a hot potato in the middle part of this one, which explains why there were 11 plays with +.100 or higher WPA. The White Sox, not surprisingly, logged the top pair with Tyler Flowers’ go-ahead seventh inning single (+.187) and Adam Eaton’s game-tying double in the sixth inning (+.162). The top play from the Red Sox ended up being a Ryan Hanigan ground ball to third in the fifth inning, which turned into a two-out go-ahead run after White Sox third basemen Tyler Saladino made a throwing error. It was downhill from there for Boston.

Bottom Play (WPA): Alexei Ramirez grounded out to Pablo Sandoval in the top of the fifth with runners on second and third and one out, the game tied at six. In retrospect, like a lot of plays in this game, this one is fairly forgettable. At the time, however, it seemed important.

Key Moment: The lead changed hands so many times during the middle of this one that it’s hard to pinpoint any definitive turning point. Instead, I’ll go with an obvious answer: when the Red Sox decided to pencil in Kelly as their starting pitcher. I listened to the first couple of innings on the radio, and let me tell you, Kelly starts are more pleasant as audio-only experiences. The back-to-back triples to start the game were a nice touch.

Look, I don’t mean to pile on Kelly. If you squint while looking at his stat line, it’s not all bad. He’s got a strikeout-to-walk ratio above two, and he’s only allowed 11 home runs in 80 innings, which is bad but not, like, ungodly bad. And he throws hard and the stuff looks good once in a while and he gets ground balls and he’s only 27. He’s cheap, too, and doesn’t figure to get much more expensive the way he’s going.

There are some things to like — you can surely dig deeper and find others — and the Red Sox may as well run Kelly out there for a while so they can try to determine if he’s part of the future, at least as a starter. That said, there’s just something frustrating about watching — or let’s face it, listening to — a Kelly start. The bouts of wildness, the missed locations, the seemingly endless barrage of hard contact. It’s not pretty, usually. But this isn’t news to you.

Trend to Watch: The Red Sox dealt Shane Victorino to the Angels just prior to last night’s game for an infielder named Josh Rutledge, and they also recalled Rusney Castillo from Triple-A Pawtucket and stuck him in right field. With Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list, Rutledge figures to get a chance to stick on the big-league roster even though he posted a less-than-inspiring .241 TAv in 947 plate appearances with the Rockies from 2012 through 2014 and doesn’t appear to have a go-to defensive position.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, it’ll be interesting to see what other moves Boston makes. Do the Red Sox try to ship out spare parts like Mike Napoli, Ryan Hanigan, or a reliever or two, or do they really make wholesale changes, maybe trying to unload a contract or, on the flip side, pick up someone like Cole Hamels or Tyson Ross? Either way, Boston should start (or continue to) giving more playing time to its young, less proven talent — Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart, perhaps starting pitchers like Brian Johnson and Henry Owens. It probably won’t be dissimilar to last year, where the Red Sox used the last half of the season to find out, for example, that Christian Vazquez could really catch.

Coming Next: The Red Sox have three more with the White Sox from Fenway before hosting a three-game set with the Rays over the weekend. Tomorrow night the suddenly useful Wade Miley takes on Jeff Samardzija. Miley’s gone at least six innings in 12 of his last 16 starts, which might not seem impressive until you realize that he didn’t last six innings once in April.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Brock Holt

Let’s start with the obvious one. Holt is fresh off his improbable trip to the All-Star Game, and clearly isn’t going to be sitting on the bench. With that being said, it’s going to be a lot harder to find a consistent spot for him, though that may not be a bad thing. As we know, Holt’s value comes from being able to play all over the diamond while still playing on something close to an everyday basis. That’s easier said than done, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him spend the majority of his time at a single position. First base is the favorite for that, but it’s dependent on Napoli’s start to the second half. More on that in a second. The other strong possibility is right field. Boston has gotten surprisingly solid contributions from the Alejandro De Aza/Shane Victorino platoon, but it wouldn’t shock anyone if that duo slows down and the team prefers Holt’s consistency.

Final Result: Mostly first base, with some right field and super utility work mixed in.

Mike Napoli

As mentioned above, the start to the second half is huge for Napoli’s spot on this team. The fact that they’ve gone this long with him is sort of amazing in it’s own way, but one has to imagine his leash is running short. They’ve already experimented with pulling David Ortiz out of his DH role to play some first, and now they have a natural replacement in Holt being freed up. The hope by most has been that Napoli would eventually start hitting well enough to build up some trade value, but eventually they need to give up on that hope. He’s already a one-year sunk cost, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him designated for assignment if he doesn’t pick it up by the end of the month.

Final Result: Eventually DFA’d, clearing space for Brock Holt

Alejandro De Aza

There hasn’t been a bigger surprise during this recent flirtation with contention than De Aza, who was brought in merely as depth but instead is coming off one of the best Junes of any player in baseball. Now, none of us expect that production to keep up, but he still deserves to be playing until he proves he shouldn’t any more, especially against right-handed pitching. Once Napoli’s time in Boston ends, Holt will shift over to first base and stop cutting into De Aza’s playing time. The latter, in the mean time, can serve as a pinch runner/hitter and defensive replacement, especially in left field. He can also man left field on nights John Farrell opts to put Hanley Ramirez in as his designated hitter. Then, there’s the possibility of a trade, though the Red Sox would have to fall completely out of it, because De Aza isn’t the kind of chip that must be cashed in. Teams know who he is, and won’t give up a ton just because he had a good month.

Final Result: Backup outfield, eventually taking over right field when Napoli leaves

Shane Victorino

This is where we get to the outskirts of changes. As sat as it may be, Victorino is merely a part-time player now, and his role may not change too much with Pedroia’s return. He may see slightly less playing time against right-handed pitching, since the Red Sox can now turn to both Holt and De Aza in that situation, but that’s not a huge change.

Final Result: Not much changes, still the short-end of a right field platoon

Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz

These last two names are more about speculation than what I anticipate being actual change. Many people will be calling for at least one of these guys to take over first base if/when Napoli is gone, with the other slotting in as the DH. To their credit, there is some strong rationale behind the idea. The move would open up an extra outfield spot to play both Holt and De Aza, and could open up a spot for Rusney Castillo and/or Jackie Bradley later in the year. However, it’s not a practical change. Ortiz can’t handle playing in the field on an everyday basis at his age, no matter how much you may want him to. Ramirez, meanwhile, likely wouldn’t be able to transition to first base as easily as some make it seem. It’s a legitimate consideration for next year, but it’s not a smart move to make the change in the middle of the current season.

Final Result: Keep the status quo

Pedroia’s return to the lineup is clearly a net positive for this team, but they’ll have some decision to makes as the second half begins. Players who had been playing every day will see their playing time drop, their position change, and some may even lose their job entirely. There are a lot of different roads John Farrell can go down, and there’s a chance the decision he makes could be the difference between contention and another lost year. In turn, that could be the difference between him staying on as manager next year and him looking for another job.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The subject of today’s article is that act: the theft of home plate. And over the past couple of years, I’ve been especially fascinated by the act. As such, I wanted to take the time to review the Sox’s home-stealing efficacy over the last several seasons, going back to the start of 2007.

Even with all the data at our disposal today, getting info on steals of home can be a long process, especially without a robust database (or Rob McQuown) at the ready. Baseball-Reference is a must, but then you have to look at data manually — whether it’s game logs or video — to find out the circumstances behind each event. Why? Because oftentimes, what shows up in the box score as a steal of home (successful or no), isn’t a designed straigh -steal of home. Much more commonly, it’s a failed squeeze bunt or a double steal of home and second base.

Just like how there is more than one way to skin a cat*, there is more than one way to be credited with an attempted steal of home plate. Today, I’d like to talk about the many ways you can steal home — or get caught stealing home — and how over the last seven or eight years, the Red Sox have done a good job of showcasing many of them.

Caught Stealing Home: Failed Double Steal

Mike Napoli is the King of Stealing Home among current Red Sox players. One of the reasons is because he’s credited with two attempted steals of home since he’s been with the Sox. The first, we’ll talk about later — but the second we’ll talk about now. This actually happened this year, allll the way back in May. On May 15th, Naps was thrown out at home as part of a double steal attempt against the Mariners. It ended the inning, and any attempt at a rally, and the Sox ended up losing the game by one run.

Whoops.

Mookie Betts was also caught in a similar situation back in 2014, as a pitch out-caught him in the attempt for a double steal — at least as far as I can tell through the box scores. It looks like the pitchout might have been designed to get the runner on first, but hey, why not bust the quick guy on third in the process?

Caught Stealing Home: Failed Suicide Squeeze

There are many ways to fail at stealing home, but most are a version of a failed suicide squeeze. Oftentimes, the hitter may miss a sign, or simply miss putting the bat on the ball. For example, in July 2011, Josh Reddick was hung out to dry on a “steal of home” when Marco Scutaro missed the sign for a suicide squeeze. The same thing happened in 2008, when Coco Crisp was hung out to dry by Alex Cora.

More often than not, if you see a player with a CS: home, this is my guess on how they got there.

Caught Stealing Home: Straight Steal

Sometimes, you think you’re ready to make a straight steal of home. The straight steal of home attempt is a rarity, and the players who do it need to be both lightning fast AND get a great jump on the pitcher. A Sox player hasn’t tried this and failed recently, but how about we all watch a video of someone who has?

This is stupid. Torii Hunter is more athletic than I’ll ever be, but man, oh man, this is a great way to murder a rally. Hunter is 39 years old! He’s fast, sure, but he’s not the same player he was a dozen years ago. Yikes.

Successful Steal of Home: Double Steal (Level 1)

This is why Mike Napoli is the current King of Stealing Home (Boston). Not because Mike’s the only guy credited with two attempts … but because one of those two attempts was successful. During this game on June 22 of last year, Jonathan Herrera was going, the Athletics pitcher moved to pick him off, and Napoli still took advantage and ran it in for a score. Check it out.

This is, for sure, the most common way a steal of home takes place these days. All five successful steals of home this season have come as part of a double steal, per my research. It’s still extremely exciting when it happens, but it’s not what I consider a “true” steal of home where the runner combines both the mental aspect of catching a team napping with the adrenaline rush of speed. Guys like Napoli, Russell Martin of the Jays … pretty much anyone with a pulse and two good knees can pull these off.

Four of the five successful steals of home by the Sox since 2007 were of this variety. Most recently, it was Napoli, of course. The Sox had two successful steals of home on a double-steal in 2013: both Shane Victorino and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (!) pulled it off. Ryan Kalish also stole home in Game 162 against the Yankees back in 2010, en route to that memorable victory.

Oh! And Napoli actually homered and stole a base in the same game! He’s not the first Red Sox player in history to have done that, but he is the first since Rico Petrocelli in 1967.

Successful Steal of Home: Distraction Play (Level 2)

This is where we start to get to the “totally awesome steal of home” level. In these cases — which are not all alike — the runner doesn’t usually just break for home on the pitch. In these cases, something else happens, which the runner uses as an impetus to break for the plate.

Since this hasn’t really happened for the Sox over the last few years, I’ll use two incredible examples from other teams.

The first is David Peralta of the Arizona Diamondbacks, from last year.

As you can see, David uses an errant return throw from the catcher to spark a run. This is the kind of combo of athleticism and instinct or intelligence that makes for a truly great play.

Here’s another version of that style of a steal of home … one that’s a bit more famous, perhaps. Back in 2012, Bryce Harper made a mark with the first steal of his big league career. This one came off of Cole Hamels and a simple pickoff throw on May 6, 2012.

Baller move, Bryce.

Successful Steal of Home: Classic (Level 3)

This is the maximum excellence in stealing home, the kind of steal of home we imagine Jackie Robinson performing. These are even more of an extreme rarity these days, and I’ve only found scattered instances of players performing the feat.

Of course, of the five Red Sox steals of home since 2007, one was of this epic variety. I present to you, our old friend: Jacoby Ellsbury. April 26, 2009.

That’s your classic, excellent, top-of-the-line steal of home. The height of base-stealing achievement, if you ask me. They’re rare and amazing, and like most rare and amazing things, there’s a Red Sox version of it out there.

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Ben Cherington built a squad loaded with offensive talent, and in no area did Boston look more primed for success than the outfield. Indeed, a common concern for Red Sox fans this spring was how John Farrell would manage to juggle playing time for all of the club’s outfielders.

Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts looked set for everyday roles, but that still left Rusney Castillo, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Brock Holt and Allen Craig vying for opportunities. In addition, the team’s starting center fielder in 2014, Jackie Bradley, was relegated to Triple-A, partially due to his vast struggles but also largely because of Boston’s incredible outfield depth.

Of course, the days when Red Sox fans worried about having too many good outfielders are now buried deep in a past that looks remarkably innocent in comparison with the increasingly dismal present. The 2015 Red Sox have very few strengths, and the outfield certainly isn’t one of them.

After Boston suffered through woeful production from its outfielders in 2014, the addition of Ramirez, full seasons from Betts and Castillo, and contributions from a deep bench were supposed to correct those failings. Through Tuesday, however, Boston’s outfield production ranks among the worst of any squad in MLB.

The days when Red Sox fans worried about having too many good outfielders are now buried deep in a past that looks remarkably innocent in comparison with the increasingly dismal present.

Red Sox outfielders are batting .242/.313/.365 so far this season, and their collective wRC+ of 88 places them 25th in baseball. From an offensive standpoint, every team’s outfielders, save for the Twins and White Sox, have outperformed Boston’s in the American League.

The struggles begin with Hanley Ramirez, who has cooled off considerably at the plate after a hot April. Since the beginning of May, Ramirez has just eight extra-base hits, and his on-base percentage sits at .308 during that time span.

Even before these offensive scuffles, Ramirez was costing the Red Sox considerably on defense. The storyline is well known at this point, but it’s worth repeating that the 31-year-old has been the worst defender in baseball and, as a result, one of the least valuable players in MLB.

While Betts has transitioned well to playing center field, his output with the bat hasn’t been nearly as consistent. The 22-year-old is going through many of the same issues that plagued Xander Bogaerts in his first full campaign at the big league level. The future remains as bright for Betts as it appeared this spring, but that hasn’t helped the Red Sox any in 2015.

Yet even beyond Betts and Ramirez, Boston’s outfield depth has been virtually nonexistent. Holt has continued to play better than anyone could have expected, though he’s had to fill in at any number of positions with just about everyone on the team underperforming. And that’s really what has plagued the Red Sox this season.

The solid group of role players that Cherington assembled has hardly provided any depth. Victorino has played just 20 games and based solely on his impact, it feels like a lot less than that. Barring a sudden improvement in health, his days as an everyday player appear to be over.

Castillo, meanwhile, hasn’t done anything to support the widespread clamoring from fans that he make Boston’s Opening Day roster. The Cuban native has an OPS+ of 56 through 68 plate appearances, even if injuries and inconsistent playing time are partially to blame.

Of course, Craig and Nava entered 2015 with consistent major league track records, and neither performed up to par. An All-Star just two seasons ago, Craig is now plying his trade in Pawtucket, which just about sums up how things have gone for the Red Sox.

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What makes these widespread struggles even more frustrating is how well Bradley has performed in Triple-A this year. The 25-year-old has been one of the best hitters in the minor leagues after making some mechanical changes. While that doesn’t guarantee success in the majors (especially after his poor campaign in 2014), Bradley couldn’t have performed much worse than many of Boston’s other outfielders.

Considering Bradley’s elite defensive skills, it’s hard watching the Red Sox send Ramirez out to feign interest in playing left field every night.

None of the club’s outfield problems come with an obvious fix, though assuming they continue to fall out of the playoff race, the Red Sox would be smart to give Bradley opportunities to see if he’s indeed made some strides at the plate. Castillo, too, needs more playing time, especially for a player scheduled to earn over $45 million through 2019.

The biggest problem for Boston remains a lopsided roster that doesn’t fit well together. That the team’s glut of outfielders has underperformed only makes these roster issues more glaring.

There aren’t any easy solutions for the Red Sox both in the present and the future. Beyond this season, it’s hard to imagine Cherington continuing to stand pat with such a crowded outfield when the rest of the squad needs to be upgraded.

For now, Cherington will just have to wait and hope the outfield, like the rest of the roster, starts producing as expected.

Top photo by Jim Coswert/USA Today Sports Images

Of course, the biggest issue for the veteran outfielder has been injuries. As it turns out, he’s on the disabled list as we speak. It’s surely frustrating, but it’s to be expected of someone who plays the game as hard as he does. On the other hand, Boston has prepared for this by building a tremendous amount of depth in the outfield. Guys like Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley and Allen Craig could all be available in the event of a disabled list trip.

Fenway’s right field is super hard to learn, with plenty of weird gaps and bounces. Victorino has mastered this land.

When he is on the field, however, Victorino still brings value to the table. First and foremost, that value comes with the glove. Now that Castillo is up, the Red Sox finally have another passable right field option. With that being said, there are still problems with his game. He has the raw talents to be a good right fielder, but there’s still more refinement to be had in his game. Additionally, Fenway’s right field is super hard to learn, with plenty of weird gaps and bounces. Victorino has mastered this land. Not only does that alone make him valuable for days off and late-game situations, but it also means Castillo potentially has a strong mentor to teach him to navigate the difficult area.

There is also the matter of the other right field options on the roster besides Castillo. Bradley is the only one who makes just as much sense on the defensive side of the ball as Victorino. The issue, of course, is that Bradley looks like he’ll be spending the majority of the season in triple-A. The other two options are Daniel Nava and Brock Holt. While the former has become a much better defensive player than he’s been in the past, that improvement has come in left field. He’s still far overmatched in right, especially at Fenway. Holt picked up the outfield absurdly quickly, but he’s still better suited to be kept in the infield. The only other infield option on the bench is Jeff Bianchi, which should be reason enough. Even if he’s not the defensive player he was even two years ago, Victorino still provides a ton of value with the glove, especially in the context of this roster.

It’s not only the defense, either. Contrary to what some would have you believe, Victorino still brings value to the table with the bat in his hands. The perception around him would have one believe that he’s been a terrible hitter for years now, but he’s been at least solid for the last few years. Even in the last two years he’s been able to hit .264/.328/.371, albeit in a limited 199 plate appearance sample size. When he’s been on the field in 2015, he’s been extremely productive, hitting to a .311 TAv.

His most valuable skill, however, has been his ability to destroy left-handed pitching. Of course, the Red Sox as a whole have struggled against southpaws, making Victorino’s splits much more beneficial. To wit, he’s hit .391/.517/.565 against left-handed pitchers for 2015. It’s not just an isolated event in 2015, either. Over his entire career, he has an .879 OPS against lefties compared to a .726 mark versus righties. Meanwhile, the team is hitting a dismal .208/.292/.354 against left-handed pitching.

The weirdest thing about these team struggles is that the lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters. This is especially true in the outfield, which is comprised has three righties in Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts and Castillo. This presents a problem in trying to find a platoon partner with Victorino. However, he doesn’t need to be in a straight platoon to add value in this area. When one of these guys needs a day off, Victorino can certainly jump in, but he’s best utilized as a bat off the bench when a tough left-handed reliever comes into the game. Right now, Boston just doesn’t have that kind of option on their bench, but it could certainly change things in tough end-of-game situations.

While he’s been something of an easy punching bag for many over the last couple years, Victorino can still play an important role on a contending Red Sox team. His defense is still stellar, especially when compared to the rest of the team. Furthermore, he could be a valuable mentor for Castillo, who is still trying to learn Fenway’s vast right field. Even on offense, he’ll be a strong bat against left-handed pitching. Although he doesn’t have a clear platoon partner, he’d provide plenty as a bat off the bench. Teams should never give out roster spots based on past contributions, but that’s not the issue for Victorino. When he’s healthy, he absolutely deserves a spot on this Red Sox team.

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