Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Those aren’t priorities, though. This team needs another starter in the same way the human body needs oxygen and food; without this addition, the Red Sox are in trouble. The consensus right now is that the top three in Boston’s rotation are fine, and they could find a fourth option internally between any of the other mediocre options. They just need that fifth starter, preferably one who could slot in the middle of that top three.

An important member of that top three is Rick Porcello, who is only a calendar year removed from having a legitimate argument for being the worst full-time starter in all of baseball. To say he’s turned things around in 2016 — and really, starting last August — would be a tremendous understatement.

Now, he is looking like he should be a really solid mid-rotation pitcher and can lock down a spot in a playoff rotation. Nonetheless, when you sit down and look at his numbers, has he really been that different from his 2015 self?

Honestly, the answer depends on what kind of numbers you’re looking at. If you prefer the more descriptive pitching stats, the answer is definitively yes. This year, Porcello has a 3.76 ERA versus a 4.92 mark in 2015. Similarly, he has a 3.58 DRA vs. a 4.40 a year ago. Those are significant differences, and they back up what we have watched this year.

Porcello’s strikeout, walk, home run and groundball rates are all more or less the same as they were last year.

On the other hand, the more predictive peripheral numbers tell a different story. His 4.04 FIP this year is only very slightly better than the 4.10 mark he put up last year. There’s a bigger split between his 92 cFIP this year compared to the 98 he put up in 2015, but they are still relatively close in the grand scheme of things. Additionally, his strikeout, walk, home run and groundball rates are all more or less the same as they were last year. In the end, the real separating factor in this supposed Tale of Two Seasons has been the number of hits he’s allowed.

As boring as it sounds, there has been luck involved in both seasons’ performances. Porcello allowed a BABIP of .332 last season, the second-highest mark of his career and well above the league-average. Conversely, he’s allowed a .269 mark this year, the lowest mark of his career and well below the league-average. The easy conclusion to make is that his true talent is in the middle of 2015 and 2016, and that is likely true.

However, there are also some real changes that have resulted in this discrepancy beyond the fickle mood of the proverbial Baseball Gods.

Specifically, Porcello’s made a highly publicized change in his repertoire from his low point last year. In 2015, he famously tried to lean more heavily on his four-seam fastball, leaving his sinker more or less in the dust. It did lead to an uptick in strikeouts, but it also led to more grooved pitches than ever and, subsequently, more hard contact.

Fast forward to this year (and, again, the final stretch of last year), and he’s leaning back on his sinker. The biggest effect I can find from this change is that Porcello is back to inducing contact on pitches out of the zone. In 2015, his O_Contact_Rt reached an all-time low, which we normally think of as a good thing. It was a good thing, of course, as it helped lead to some of those strikeouts. However, it also kept batters alive long enough to find better pitches to hit. This year, the at-bats are ending earlier, often with weaker contact. So, while the discrepancy in BABIP is partially due to luck, there are also tangible differences that have led to the increased effectiveness.

On the other hand, it’s not hard to imagine some other portions of his game taking a step back as the season goes on. Specifically, one shouldn’t expect Porcello to continue striking batters out at this kind of rate. Right now, he’s striking out a career-high eight batters per nine innings despite swinging-strike and zone rates that are essentially right at this career average. Now, strikeouts are up around the league, which may help partially explain this, but a decline is fair to expect. Even if the number falls down to seven per nine, we’re talking about a less effective pitcher.

Then, there’s the elephant in the room: The home runs. Beyond everything else, this was what undid Porcello in 2015. The problem hasn’t gone away this year, despite the better overall results. Sure, he’s allowing fewer base runners, so the dingers have a smaller effect, but allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings is never a good thing. Despite the increased sinker usage and the overall weaker contact, he’s still below the 50 percent groundball rate threshold and is still leaving too many balls up in the zone.

After how he looked last year, it’s hard not to feel more positive about Rick Porcello, though you’ll save yourself some heartache by keeping expectations in check. According to some of the numbers, he hasn’t really changed at all from his 2015 self. I wouldn’t go nearly that far — there is real evidence supporting his declining BABIP — but I don’t think the difference is as large as his ERA would suggest.

In reality, his true talent is likely in the middle of the two seasons, settling in as something around a 4.00 ERA pitcher. While the Red Sox go look for their newest starting pitcher on the trade market, they can still plan on Porcello being part of their hopeful playoff rotation. It’s just that he’d be a better fit as the fourth guy in the team’s rotation rather than the second or third.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

To few people’s surprise, they’ve announced that Roenis Elias will be that replacement.

This is undoubtedly good news for Elias, but him winning this spot is more faint praise than anything else. I mean, his competition was Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz (who has six walks and three strikeouts in 6.1 innings out of the bullpen) and Henry Owens. However, as underwhelming as his current competition is, Elias has proven to be as solid as he is unspectacular as a starter in his relatively short career.

Prior to getting the call to Boston, the now-27-year-old spent two years in Seattle serving as something close to a full-time starter. To wit, 49 of his 51 appearances came as a starter, including all 29 of his appearances in 2014. His performance was nothing to write home about — something that should be obvious considering he was the secondary piece in the Wade Miley deal — but he was a perfectly acceptable back-end hurler. In both these seasons, he pitched to adjusted ERA’s just slightly below the league average with peripherals to match that kind of performance.

Elias has proven to be as solid as he is unspectacular as a starter in his relatively short career.

The underwhelming existence that is Roenis Elias: Starting pitcher doesn’t just end with the numbers, either. In order to produce these slightly below-average numbers, he relies on a fastball/curveball/changeup mix. If you were told to dream up the most boring starting pitcher repertoire, I’d be willing to bet that’s the mix you’d pick.

This isn’t meant to be an insult, either, because it led to solid strikeout numbers at least. Unfortunately, the pitch he worked off most of the time — his fastball — is also his worst pitch. The heater sits in the low-to-mid nineties, but doesn’t induce whiffs or ground balls. At the same time, a higher rate of line drives are hit off the pitch than any of his others. Again, this isn’t a particularly uncommon occurrence for someone of Elias’ caliber, but it helps paint the picture of who he is.

To his credit, his secondaries have been much more effective over his career. Both pitches boast whiff-per-swing rates over 32 percent (per Brooks Baseball) and they both induce ground balls on over half of balls put in play against them. These two pitches are the reason he’s able to maintain a strikeout rate slightly above the league-average starter, coming in slightly under eight K’s per nine innings.

Guys with this kind of strikeout rate can certainly excel at the highest level, but they need at least plus command. Elias…well, Elias doesn’t even have average command. He’s had a tremendous amount of trouble with control over his career, walking roughly a full batter per nine innings more than the league-average starter. The issue is quite simple: He can’t hit the strike zone. He’s had little problem drawing swings on pitches out of the zone — though he’s not elite in this area, either — but that can’t outweigh zone rate. While the middle of the pack in zone rate is typically around 48-to-49 percent, Elias is all the way down at 45 percent over his career.

It’s not just the walks, either, as he’s had plenty of problems with the long ball. Despite pitching in Safeco Park and other pitcher-friendly ballparks out west, he’s allowed exactly one home run per nine innings over his career. That’s a rate that could be expected to rise as he shifts to the American League East, especially if he can’t find a way to keep the ball further down in the zone. For whatever it’s worth, that hasn’t been the case in Triple-A given his 0.9 HR/9 rate with Pawtucket.

So, he’s solid with strikeouts, just average with home runs despite pitching in pitcher-friendly environments and bad with walks. All of this mediocrity leads me to two possibly contradictory points. The first is that Elias is fine, assuming it’s roughly what the Red Sox can expect moving forward. If he can go about five innings per start and allow three or four runs more often than not, the Red Sox can live with that. The most important thing for Elias — and the rest of Boston’s pitchers — is avoiding blow-up outings. We know Buchholz and Kelly haven’t been able to do that, and it takes Boston’s biggest asset — it’s high-powered offense — out of the game too early. Of course, blow-up is a vague term, but if we define it as allowing five runs or more (an admittedly crude and arbitrary definition) Elias’ history is encouraging.

Just 18 percent of his career starts fit this definition.

The other side of this coin is that such subpar performance can’t be acceptable for the rest of the season. Elias’ mediocre pitching is fine for a team trying to make it through to the trade deadline, but contending teams in August and September need to do better than that. This is particularly true for a rotation that includes Steven Wright, who always seems like a risk to turn back into a pumpkin, Rick Porcello, who has looked more like 2015 Porcello lately, and Eduardo Rodriguez who hasn’t lived up to his potential thus far this year.

Elias’ mediocre pitching is fine for a team trying to make it through to the trade deadline, but contending teams in August and September need to do better than that.

Whether they find that replacement internally (unlikely) or externally (very likely), Elias probably can’t be a starter for a team in a tight playoff race, barring injuries. Again, this is nothing against him, because there is value to having players like Elias on the roster, but this Red Sox team will need better eventually.

Finding a better starter would also allow Elias to be unleashed in the bullpen, where he could provide some real value. There’s not a ton of data with him pitching in short stints, but the hope would be that his stuff plays up enough for his ability to garner strikeouts to mask his command issues. Even if it doesn’t, he’s had plenty of success against left-handed hitters over his career. For instance, he allowed a .231 TAv against lefties in 2015 compared to a .282 mark against righties. For a Red Sox team relying on Tommy Layne and Robbie Ross as the left-handed relief options right now, Elias would be a welcome change.

That’s looking too far down the road, though. Elias is going to take the hill for his first start in a Red Sox uniform on Friday, and it likely won’t be his last based on his competition. He’s not going to be anyone’s favorite pitcher, but he’ll be fine for now. The strikeouts will keep him in games, but the command will keep him from dominating.

As with just about every player, it all comes down to expectations. If you just hope for Elias to keep the team in games, history shows he can serve that role. Just don’t look for anything more.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Brian Johnson has been rated among the Red Sox‘s top 10 prospects for the last couple of seasons. On most of this year’s lists the 25-year-old lefty occupies the sixth or seventh slot. Johnson is a member of the group of homegrown, young pitchers – with Henry Owens and Matt Barnes – who are expected to provide the pitching depth the Red Sox will certainly need as they battle for AL East crown in 2016.

Johnson will compete for a spot in the big league rotation this Spring, but it is more than likely that he starts the year in Pawtucket. In some ways, he’s ready for a shot in the majors, but there is simply no room for him in Boston right now. The rough news for Johnson is that he is not likely to be the next man up if an opening should emerge in the big league rotation. Owens, Roenis Elias, and typically forgotten man Steven Wright are all in this same situation, and might rank higher than Johnson on the depth chart. Johnson is part of a group that is on the outside looking in at the moment, and while this sort of depth is great for the organization, it may not bode well for Johnson’s future with the Red Sox.

What Went Right in 2015

This part is fairly straight forward. The best thing about 2015 for Johnson was how well he performed during his time in Pawtucket. In 96.0 innings he posted a 3.19 RA9 (3.22 FIP), with a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Johnson was murder on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .256 OBP, but didn’t exactly struggle with righties, keeping them to a .282 OBP. All in all, Johnson handled the Triple-A level well and seemed ready for a promotion to a Red Sox staff that struggled mightily to begin the year.

He got the call to the big leagues on July 11, but did not get the chance to start until July 21, when he made his debut in Houston. Perhaps because of the oddly long stretch of inactivity, the outing did not go very well. Johnson allowed four runs in 4.1 innings, with more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). Despite this, it gave Johnson his first opportunity against big league hitters. Although he made only this one start, Johnson at least got a taste of the differences between navigating a major league lineup and that of one with Triple-A hitters.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Despite his mid-summer call-up, health and Florida car thieves made 2015 difficult for Johnson. Following that first outing against the Astros, Johnson made only two more appearances in 2015 – both for Pawtucket – because of an elbow injury. While elbow injuries are often followed by Tommy John surgery, Johnson did not end up going under the knife. He was instead diagnosed with a nerve-related issue that periodically left him with numbness in his left hand. This is generally good news, though there is some uncertainty regarding how to treat the injury.

With little improvement in his status by August, the Red Sox decided to shut down Johnson for the rest of the season. After a half-season of great pitching in the minor leagues and a major league debut under his belt, Johnson’s progress was halted, ultimately leaving his expectations for 2016 unclear.

Outlook for 2016 / MLB ETA

Johnson will compete for a spot at the back end of Boston’s rotation this spring, but is more likely to be called up if the team’s rotation is struck by injuries. He will need to demonstrate that his nerve issue is behind him, or that he can manage it over the course of a major league season and 150-plus innings on the mound. Most of his time will likely be spent in Pawtucket, where he will keep trying to showcase his big league credentials.

Johnson will probably see some time with Boston this season, but he could also be an intriguing piece in a potential trade. With all the depth the Red Sox have at starting pitcher, he could be dangled in a deal to improve the big league club in-season. Still, the more immediate concern is that Johnson resumes dominating hitters the way he did prior to his injury. If he continues that success, an opportunity in the majors will come calling eventually, whether with Boston or another team.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

For me, Steven Wright is a really interesting part of the Red Sox roster. Given that he is likely to serve as a swing-man in Boston, going between the backend of the rotation and middle relief, or spend a chunk of his time in Pawtucket, it is easy to see why he would get overlooked. But the versatility Wright brings in taking on those fringy roles is why I think the 31-year-old Wright and his ever-developing knuckleball will have an important role in the coming Red Sox season.

Wright was selected 56^th overall in the 2006 draft by the Cleveland Indians. At the time, he was a conventional pitcher featuring a fastball, changeup and a breaking pitch, but, simply put, the conventional approach was not working all that well. Look at his ERAs from the 2007-2010 seasons and you’ll find five of his nine stints end with an ERA over 4.50. Sure, some of those stints involve low innings-pitched totals, but, in general, the numbers show that he was wanting in effectiveness. The inconsistent and, for the most part, poor performance, led Wright to be bounced back and forth between starting and relieving in those seasons, and to him tinkering with the knuckleball at the end of 2010. He needed to add an out-pitch, found success with it and from then on worked as a knuckleballer.

Wright arrived in the Red Sox organization at the 2012 trade deadline as part of the swap with Cleveland for then-highly-touted prospect Lars Anderson. Since arriving in the Red Sox organization Wright has pitched well in the minor leagues (3.45 ERA, 2.1 K/BB in 313.1 IP), and posted mixed results in his opportunities with Boston that work out to a pretty decent line (3.95 ERA, 2.1 K/BB in 107.0 IP). It is not clear if he will be on the Opening Day roster, but regardless, Wright will need to remain flexible with his role if he wants to spend much time in Boston.

What Went Right in 2015

Wright split his time between Pawtucket and Boston last season. At Pawtucket he was used exclusively as a starter, while in Boston he started nine games and appeared in seven more as a reliever. Despite throwing a largely unpredictable pitch, Wright showed good control. Between the two levels he struck out 94 batters while only walking 42, which is a good ratio and indicative of his ability to throw strikes. But looking at things on a more granular level reveals just how well he controlled his knuckler. During his time in Boston last season – the stint for which PITCHf/x data is available – Wright fluttered over half of his pitches through the strike zone (54.8%). Wright’s in-the-zone rate was the fifth-best in baseball among the 190 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings last year, and much higher than the 2015 league average rate (47.8%). Wright’s level of strike-throwing last year was comparable to guys like Max Scherzer, David Price and Shelby Miller, but Wright’s mark is remarkable given that three quarters of his offerings were a knuckleball.

Throwing pitches in the strike zone is one thing, but doing so while not getting knocked all over the ballpark is another. Hitters tend to perform better when contacting pitches in the strike zone, so limiting contact is an important aspect of throwing in the zone. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed out in an article last March, Wright has a history of being very good at minimizing contact on pitches in the zone. This ability continued in 2015, as his zone-contact rate (79.3%) was the third-lowest in baseball among that same group of pitchers who tossed 70 or more innings. He trailed only Max Scherzer (79.0) and Dellin Betances (78.7). Other players at the top-end of this list include Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Matt Harvey; those are cherry-picked examples but represent company worth keeping.

Having a pitch like Wright’s knuckleball that moves a lot but ends up in the zone and generally avoids getting hit seems like a good combination:

Wright’s knuckleball is ridiculous tonight https://t.co/Byaixnwbtb

— Sox Lunch (@Soxlunch) August 6, 2015

What Went Wrong in 2015

Despite controlling the strike zone and limiting contact within it, Wright was not exactly the elite pitcher I may have made him out to be in the previous section. Among those pitchers who threw at least 70 major league innings last season, Wright’s cFIP (113) was 38th worst and his DRA (4.11) was 98th worst, although right around league average (96 DRA-). These middling marks were driven, at least partially, by his good fortune in getting batted balls turned into outs. Good fortune is not something typically considered as “going wrong,” but it is in the sense that it clouds the interpretation of how Wright actually pitched. His BABIP-against last season in Boston was a paltry .252, which was much lower than was previously typical for him: .320 in his 34.1 major-league innings prior to 2015, and .297 in his 1005.0 minor league innings, which includes the .331 mark he posted for Pawtucket last year. An 80-point swing in BABIP across levels in the same season is huge and not really something we should expect Wright to maintain.

You may think that some of his fortune with batted balls was a result of getting weak contact. We know that he did well in limiting contact, so perhaps the contact he allowed was not all that great. It is a reasonable hypothesis, but one that ultimately lacks support. Again comparing him to those pitchers who posted 70-plus major league innings last season, Wright allowed the 14th highest rate of hard hit contact (33.9%). He had the honor of being at the top of that prestigious chart with teammates Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello, ranked third and 24th, respectively. In case you missed it, Red Sox pitchers were hit hard in 2015. Wright allowing hard-hit balls as often as he did makes the low BABIP-against all the more surprising. He was frequently allowing rockets, but as it turns out they were often hit right at somebody, which is just lucky. If those rockets start finding holes his slightly below league-average runs-allowed rate will quickly be considerably above league-average, thereby limiting his effectiveness. All told, the 2015 cFIP and DRA numbers offer a more realistic measure of what we should expect from Wright going forward.

While hard hit balls were a concern for Wright while he was on the mound, unfortunately he did not have a chance to make adjustments over the final six weeks of the season, as he was struck in the head with a ball in early August while completing his daily running drills during batting practice. He was diagnosed with a concussion and initially placed on the 7-day disabled list, however, his concussive symptoms persisted to the point that he was transferred to the 15-day DL and ended up missing the remainder of the season. The Red Sox training staff, and folks at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Sports Medicine Concussion Program ensured that Wright was not rushed back into the lineup. Instead they worked towards a goal of having him enter the offseason healthy and able to prepare for the 2016 season.

Outlook for 2016

Anticipating the performance of a knuckleballer with any certainty is for the most part a fool’s errand. They throw an unpredictable pitch that can be at the mercy of the wind, humidity or myriad other factors on the night it is thrown. However, Wright has shown an advanced ability to control the pitch, so he has the potential to be effective. The good news for Wright (and the Red Sox) is that he doesn’t need to be much more than league average. Even at his averagish cFIP and DRA marks in 2015, Wright was a positive contributor, accumulating 0.7 WARP. If Wright pitches at a roughly similar level but is used flexibly and as a result throws more innings, he could be a 1- to 2-win contributor. Wright can start, he can relieve, he can eat up innings to save a bullpen, and his primary pitch has a positive knock-on effect for the next guy to toe the rubber. For these reasons Wright can be an important piece on this team throughout the coming season.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

While the 2015 Red Sox season was a disappointment overall, the team was a different squad in the second half. For example, in the first half the starting pitching ranked 28^th in the league by ERA (4.75), and 13^th by FIP (3.90). In the second half their rankings improved to 9^th (3.97) and 11^th (3.95). The first half involved adjusting to a young catcher, a new pitching coach and, for Rick Porcello and Wade Miley, new surroundings. Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com has more on how the pitchers’ gradual acclimation to these things over the course of the season led to much better results for them on the mound. You should note that the improvement in pitching really only came in the runs allowed department; the fielding independent numbers remained basically the same. As Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes, outfield defense has had a lot to do with keeping runs off the board in the second half. Moving from Hanley Ramirez and his -19 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 747.2 innings in left field to Jackie Bradley Jr. (3 DRS in 122.1 innings) and Rusney Castillo (9 DRS in 217.0 innings) was absolutely critical. A full season of the Betts, Bradley Jr. and Castillo outfield would be a lot of fun for Red Sox pitchers.

While the Red Sox starting pitching was much improved in the second half of the season, the team will likely pursue a frontline ace in the offseason. The available big names are Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. In my opinion, Greinke and Price are the most attractive of this group, but they will likely come with the highest price tags, which could make them that much more difficult to lock down and Dave Dombrowski more hesitant to commit long-term. However, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe suggests that the way Dombrowski handled contract negotiations with Max Scherzer while in Detroit offers insight into what we can expect from the new boss this winter. He is willing to act aggressively within well-defined limits and will consider giving a long-term deal to a pitcher in his 30s. Dombrowski also notes that he is willing to move to secondary plans if acquiring a top-of-the-rotation starter proves too difficult, and is well-aware of the criticism that can come with making that decision. Secondary plans could involve someone like Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, or maybe even Rich Hill (!). Starting pitching is just one of many areas about which many interesting decisions will be made by the Red Sox’s front office this offseason. For example, Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com reminds us that the bullpen is also an area that needs considerable attention. However, adding an arm or two to the starting rotation would allow players being considered for a rotation spot to be moved to the bullpen (e.g., Joe Kelly, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright), in a sort of killing two birds with one stone approach.

Quick Hits

Hanley Ramirez came into the season looking bulked up and ready to perform, but things did not go according to plan; by now you have read about his well-documented struggles. Well, it turns out the Red Sox think that Ramirez’s extra bulk may have played a role in his difficulty adjusting to playing left field, and contributed to his injuries. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston.com writes that the team has asked him to lose 15-20 pounds over the offseason.

Dave Dombrowski announced that John Farrell and Torey Lovullo will be back with the team as manager and bench coach, respectively, in 2016. Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com outlines how the decision to retain the coaching duo benefits the team, and Jason Mastrodonato has positive reactions to the move from a number of Red Sox players in his notebook.

Sunday marked Don Orsillo’s final broadcast for the Red Sox. The game featured many highlights from Don’s time in the Red Sox’s booth, as well as heartfelt comments from broadcast-partner Jerry Remy, a tip-of-the-cap from Red Sox players, and finally, a touching note from Don (text of his comments here). Jon Tomase of WEEI.com kept a running diary of the broadcast that is well-worth your time.

Thirty-nine-year-old David Ortiz finished the 2015 season with a .273/.360/.553 line (.304 TAv), hit 37 home runs and 37 doubles. Somehow, despite that line, there exists a negative perception of Ortiz’s performance among some Red Sox fans. Chad Finn of Boston.com reminds fans to appreciate Ortiz’s production and asks them to stop measuring him against mythic perceptions that exist for other players.

Last Three Good Game Stories of 2015…

The Red Sox lost all three games of their final weekend set with the Indians, the first of which was an 8-2 drubbing that, as Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com writes, ended Henry Owens season on a sour note.

Craig Breslow got his second start of the season in the middle game of the Cleveland series. He pitched well, and tells Jason Mastrodonato of the BostonHerald.com that starting has reinvigorated his confidence and could be something he considers for the future.

Rick Porcello pitched well in the final game of the season, but was ultimately undone by his throwing error in the third inning. Nevertheless, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that Porcello finished the final six weeks of the season strong, and can hopefully carry that performance into next year.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Through Wednesday, the club’s starters have posted the second-worst ERA in the American League. During long stretches of the season’s first half, no Red Sox pitcher seemed capable of escaping the fifth inning. That Boston’s staff-wide FIP of 4.05 suggests some poor fortune has been involved provides little consolation for an organization that’s endured yet another disappointing campaign.

The worst part of all this is how nearly everyone saw these struggles coming. The Red Sox entered the season with a rotation that looked inadequate on paper and has proven to be just that in reality. Although the offense’s underperformance deserves a large piece of the blame pie, Boston was going to be hard-pressed to contend with such a woeful rotation.

Much like last winter, the predominant storyline surrounding the Red Sox this offseason will be the team’s need to add a frontline pitcher to an otherwise subpar staff. And with the hiring of Dave Dombrowski to run the show in baseball ops, many expect Boston to be aggressive in pursuing a top-level arm.

While adding an ace should be a big priority for Dombrowski, the club’s rotation outlook for 2016 might already be rosier than many realize. Since the All-Star Break, Red Sox starters have compiled a 4.30 ERA and 4.29 FIP, both of which rank right near league average over that time span.  This performance has come without the benefit of a healthy Clay Buchholz, who was pitching like an All-Star before he landed on the DL.

Boston’s staff has improved, in large part, due to a quietly strong second half from Wade Miley. The southpaw has a 3.25 FIP dating back to the All-Star Break, with a 20.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. After an up-and-down start to his Red Sox career, Miley has pitched like the steady mid-rotation hurler the team traded for last offseason.

Even more intriguing has been the midseason arrival of two promising left-handers to Boston’s rotation. Neither Eduardo Rodriguez nor Henry Owens can be considered anything close to a finished product, but both have flashed loads of potential to begin their major league careers. Rodriguez appears more polished at this point, and with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 mph, is one of the hardest-throwing lefties in the game. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in 13 of his 18 outings this season, though his performances in those other five starts are certainly less worthy of praise.

Owens remains very much a work in progress, but he has the raw ingredients to succeed in MLB. The tall left-hander has command issues that need fixing, yet unlike most young starters (Rodriguez included), Owens has four solid pitches with which he can attack hitters. That he has shown the ability to succeed against good offenses is encouraging, even if there are growing pains ahead.

Perhaps the most significant development has been how well Rick Porcello has pitched since his return from the DL. With Boston in line to pay Porcello $82.5 million over the next four years, the club will need to get the right-hander back on track sooner rather than later. While he’s made just three starts since returning, Porcello has looked dominant in that stretch, striking out 22 batters and walking only three in 22 innings pitched.

You can argue all day about whether Porcello’s contract was an overpay, but throughout his career, he’s resembled an above-average starter far more often than the pitcher who posted a 5.81 ERA over this season’s first three months. That he’s decided to re-incorporate his sinker can only be good news for the Red Sox.

And finally, let’s not forget Joe Kelly, who must at least be giving Dombrowski some food for thought with how he’s pitched over the last six weeks. Even if his future is still likely in the bullpen, Kelly has looked the part of a back-end starter for a good chunk of the second half now.

Given all these positive outcomes, Boston’s staff has the potential to be much better next season than it performed in 2015. If Buchholz can recapture the form he showed when healthy this year, he’ll be another piece to add to the starting rotation puzzle that’s a little more crowded than one might expect.

To be certain, the Red Sox can’t enter 2016 and expect to contend without acquiring a reliable starter. There remains plenty of risk with this current group, even if the upside is much greater than what Boston entered this season with.

Buchholz can’t be counted on for 180 innings. Owens and Rodriguez have more potential than the likes of Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa and Anthony Ranaudo, but both still have tons of adjustments to make. Although Porcello and Kelly have performed well over small samples recently, their output on the whole this year has been woeful.

Nevertheless, the team can realistically hope for some internal improvements in the rotation in 2016, beyond whoever they obtain this offseason. Acquiring an ace would go a long way toward strengthening the Red Sox’s credentials, but consistency from the rest of the starting staff will be paramount if Boston wants to contend next season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

This weekend the Sox will play their second-to-last interleague series, travelling to New York to take on the first-place Mets. Dave Dombrowski will continue his evaluation of the current squad, especially the young players, as he works out the 2016 roster. Losing the designated hitter spot would typically be an annoyance, as it requires moving offensive studs like David Ortiz or Hanley Ramirez to the bench. But with the season lost, getting those guys some rest and focusing on the development of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Travis Shaw, and Rusney Castillo is the best approach and removes some of the sting that comes with losing the DH.

New York Mets – Record (70 – 56) – Projected Record (90 – 72)

The New York Mets are in first place in the National League East, which continues to be a surprise. The Washington Nationals were projected to win the division easily, while most thought the Mets would battle the Miami Marlins for second place, and a possible wild card spot. But, as we know, that has not how things have played out. The Nationals have struggled with injuries and poor play, while the Mets have paired a terrific, young pitching staff (459 runs allowed ranks 4^th lowest in baseball), with an offense that does enough (511 runs scored ranks 19^th highest in baseball) to keep them at the top of the NL East standings. However, as Joe Sheehan recently wrote, the NL East is a terrible division. As a group, the teams in the NL East are 123-123 (.500) against each other and 165-221 (.427) against NL Central, NL West and American League teams. The Mets have taken advantage of the unbalanced schedule and their weak division, beating their intra-division foes to the tune of a 33-17 record (.660), while treading water against everybody else (37-39, .487). Simply put, the NL East is an inferior division that has to send somebody to the playoffs, and right now it looks like the Mets will be that somebody, but they are not necessarily an intimidating first-place squad.

Probables:

Game 1: Henry Owens vs. Matt Harvey, Friday, 7:10pm EDT

Owens is still getting his feet wet as a major league starter, and we have seen the ups and downs that come for young starters when Owens has been on the hill. In his four starts, two have been mediocre, one was poor, and one, his last outing, was excellent. Last Friday’s start against the Royals is an example of what the Red Sox hope they will be consistently getting from this long-touted prospect. Ideally, Owens can build on this recent, successful outing and continue to work deeper into games, getting strikeouts when he can, and most importantly, avoid walking batters. He has only walked one batter in three of his four starts, which is a great sign for his progress and future success. We will also get to see Owens stand in the batter’s box this weekend, which could be interesting.

Matt Harvey’s performance since returning to major league mounds has been about as strong as it was before the elbow injury that caused him to miss 2014. In 2013 he posted a 2.32 RA9, 2.00 FIP, and 2.42 DRA, earning him a fourth place finish in the NL Cy Young race. To date, he has a 2.81 RA9, 3.43 FIP, and 3.44 DRA, which, while all higher than his previous marks, are still evidence of his excellence. His combination of a 95+ mph fastball and wipeout slider tends to lead to high strikeout totals, although on a rate basis he has been a little worse this year than in his other two years. Harvey heads a really strong Mets rotation, and has to some extent taken over from David Wright as the face of the franchise. He presents an opening test for the Red Sox offense, in a weekend that will be full of them.

Game 2: Joe Kelly vs. Jacob deGrom, Saturday, 4:05pm EDT

The Joe Kelly as starter experiment continues, and as much as I have railed against it continuing and hoped he would provide more evidence that he should not be a starter, he has actually been pretty good over his last four outings: 24.2 innings pitched, 21 hits, six runs, three home runs, eight walks and 20 strikeouts. However, it should be noted that those performances came against offenses that are ranked 7^th, 17^th, 27^th and 29^th by TAv, so not exactly juggernauts. Given this, it is difficult to tell if Kelly has truly figured out the starting pitching game or just feasted on weaker opponents. Regardless, I suspect that if he continues to pitch like he has, we should be ready for another year of his great stuff in the rotation.

The afternoon after battling Matt Harvey for an evening, the Red Sox get the joy of taking on last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom. deGrom, proud owner of a beautiful mane of hair, has actually been better than Harvey this year, posting a 2.57 RA9, 2.97 FIP, and 3.19 DRA, upping his (already high) strikeout rate from last season, while simultaneously decreasing his walk rate. While typically a dominant starter, he got blown up in his last start by, of all teams, the Phillies. In his disastrous outing he allowed seven runs on eight hits, three of which left the yard, in 2.2 innings. It was a clear outlier start that if he were given a mulligan for would lower his RA9 to 2.15. Alternatively, it could be an early sign that he is hitting a wall in terms of workload. His 157 innings to date is his highest total ever (including minor league seasons), and already 17 more than he threw last year. The Mets will want to monitor his workload as they advance toward the playoffs, and the Red Sox should aim to take advantage of facing him in a lowered state.

Game 3: Wade Miley vs. Noah Syndergaard, Sunday, 1:10pm EDT

Wade Miley keeps chugging along, taking the ball every fifth day, providing a sort of much needed consistency for the Red Sox this season. After consecutive solid starts, in which he threw at least seven innings and allowed fewer than three runs, Miley’s last outing was a step back. The White Sox knocked him around for 13 hits and five runs, the second time they have beaten him up this season. The Mets offense has been mediocre on the season, but has really been clicking over the last couple of weeks. By wRC+ they Mets’ offense has been second to only the Red Sox (!) in the last 14 days. Miley will need to be better than he was in his last outing if he is going to hold the Mets down.

Syndergaard, or Thor as he is commonly called, is the third part of the starting pitching monster the Mets have assembled. This season, his rookie campaign, has been very successful. Like the other two Mets starters the Red Sox will face this weekend, Syndergaard is proficient in striking batters out (26.6 K%) and limiting walks (5.9 BB%). After acquiring the 6’6” starter from the Blue Jays in the R.A. Dickey trade, the Mets took their time advancing him through their minor league system and the extra seasoning appears to have paid off; he looks like he is in the big leagues for good.

Opposing Lineup:

The Mets’ offense is not really the strong suit of the team (95 wRC+, .266 TAv), although with the additions of Yoenis Cespedes (.592 SLG, 7 HR) and Juan Uribe (.410 SLG, 5 HR), and promotion of outfield-prospect Michael Conforto (.500 SLG, 3 HR) have made the lineup more potent. David Wright is back in the mix, working his way back from a difficult back injury, and hitting a home run in his first plate appearance. But it is difficult to know what to expect from him at this point. It is doubtful that he is the .310/.370/.452 guy he has been in his 46 plate appearances this season, but also doubtful he is the .269/.324/.374 hitter he was in 2014. Somewhere in the middle is a safer bet. Just as Wright came back, Lucas Duda, who is having a solid season (129 wRC+, 21 HR), was placed on the disabled list with a back injury. So they are still not the group that was intended. Regardless, they have scored 77 runs in their last ten games, making life much easier for the vaunted pitching staff.

The lineup is likely to look different from what is above. Mets’ manager Terry Collins has used 108 different batting orders in the Mets’ 126 games. Ruben Tejeda (.272 TAv) is likely to see some time at shortstop, Juan Uribe will get in at third base, Juan Lagares (.248 TAv) will sparkle defensively in the outfield, and Anthony Recker (.196 TAv) can spare d’Arnaud at catcher.

Recap

The Red Sox offense will be in for a tough weekend against three really good starting pitchers, and the starters are running into an offense that has scored a lot lately. If the Mets continue their struggles outside the NL East then the Sox should be able to grab a couple of wins. Regardless, it will be worth watching some of the Sox’s young hitters stand in against top of the line pitching.

Photo by Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports Images