Triple-A Pawtucket: Sam Travis (1B)

Sam Travis, who a mystery scout threw the deliriously exciting Paul Goldschmidt comp on earlier this spring, has been doing his part to live up to the hype. Travis has moved quickly through the Red Sox system. He started the 2015 season at High-A Salem where he crushed opposing pitching to the point that he was promoted to Double-A Portland midway through the season. Once there, he continued his impressive output at the plate. While only accumulating 281 PA at Double-A, Travis’ performance this spring (.469/.429/.719, with two doubles and two home runs) pushed the Red Sox to assign him to the Triple-A level to start the 2016 season.

At Pawtucket this season, the 22-year old has been knocking the ball all over the yard. Five of his 20 hits have gone for extra-bases (three doubles, two home runs) and he has collected multiple hits in seven of his first 17 games. His bat is going to need to carry him to the next level, as due to his lack of speed he is likely limited to playing first base and with that is likely not going to be a standout defender. Travis’ lack of speed/athleticism is something that sticks out as making the Goldschmidt comp silly, but really the comparison is merely something to dream on and not to be taken as an expectation of Travis’ future. Regardless, if Travis can keep hitting the way he has this season at Pawtucket, he could see some action in Boston in September and it is probably not too wild to think that he could have a spot at first base in Fenway Park in 2017. It will be difficult to move Gold Glove first-baseman Hanley Ramirez to the designated hitter spot, but doing so and keeping Travis Shaw at third base opens a big league spot for someone like Sam Travis.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Since we last checked in on him, Rusney Castillo has slowed from his torrid hitting pace. He connected for three singles in his last 16 at-bats, earning nary a walk, and striking out three times. At Pawtucket, his ground-out to fly-out ratio is 1.75, so he is still struggling getting the ball in the air.

Blake Swihart was sent to Pawtucket to work on improving his defense, unfortunately his offense has taken a serious slide. He has a .161/.257/.194 line in 31 PA. It is difficult to know how the defensive side of things are progressing, but he has thrown out three of eight base runners attempting to steal.

Double-A Portland: Wendell Rijo (2B) and Teddy Stankiewicz (RHP)

Last year at High-A Salem, Rijo demonstrated the ability with the bat he showed at the Low-A level in 2014 was for real, as he slashed .260/.324/.381 in 455 plate appearances against the better competition. Unfortunately the progression has not continued with his promotion to Double-A. Through the first few weeks of the season, Rijo is hitting a meager .205/.255/.341, a considerable step back from his efforts at the lower levels. He is striking out more, walking less, and because of the low on-base percentage has not had a chance to employ his speed on the bases. We know he can be a threat, as he stole 15 bases last season (in 22 tries) and 16 the season before that (again in 22 tries), but as the old saying goes: you can’t steal first base. There is obviously no need for panic. It is still the early days of the season and Rijo has shown these same sorts of initial struggles when adapting to his new level in each of the last two seasons. He has time to adjust to the better pitching, continue honing his grasp on the strike zone and get back to hitting like he has in the past. Rijo is just 20-years old – quite young for Double-A – and with players ahead of him like Devon Marrero and Dustin Pedroia there is no need to push him through the system quickly.

In addition to having one of the best names in the Red Sox system, Teddy “STANK” Stankiewicz has been dominating hitters. In his three starts this season Stank has thrown 18.0 innings (an even 6.0 in each), allowed only two runs, 13 hits, one walk, and 16 strikeouts. Add all that up and you have a guy with a 1.00 ERA (1.53 FIP). Stank’s tremendous results so far are remarkably different from his 2015 season at High-A Salem. Last year he struggled to strike batters out, posting the lowest rate of his young career, and walked too many batters, posting the highest rate of his career. Together that is a bad combination and clearly contributed to his career high 4.01 ERA (4.03 FIP). While we only have three starts to judge him by this year, he appears to have cured what was ailing him in 2015. If he continues the dominance he has shown in the early going of the 2016 season he should end the season in Pawtucket, with an outside shot of being in Boston at some point in 2017.

High-A Salem: Jalen Beeks (LHP)

While Salem’s offense gets most of the attention, the pitching staff has a few players who have been performing at a really high level in the early going. One example is 22-year old, left-hander Jalen Beeks. Beeks has started three games for the Salem squad, posting 15.2 innings of one run ball. His 0.57 ERA is the fourth lowest mark among pitchers in High-A who have made at least three starts. It is worth noting that his fielding independent mark is much higher (2.53), which suggests he has had considerably good fortune in the early going. For example, his 95 percent left-on-base rate is not sustainable and we can expect that more of the baserunners he is allowing (almost seven per outing) will be coming around to score over his next few starts. Regardless, he has been a bright spot thus far.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Since we last checked in with him last week, Yoan Moncada has added six more hits (one double) and one walk to his season total, pushing his line to .350/.474/.483.

Andrew Benintendi has kept pace with Moncada, knocking out six hits in his last four games, four of which went for two-bases. His line is now at .333/.390/.623.

Rafael Devers has continued to struggle, going 1 (a single) for his last 11, walking twice and striking out three times. Hopefully he can get things headed in the right direction soon.

Low-A Greenville: Josh Ockimey (1B) and Austin Rei (C)

The Greenville Drive team can really hit. They have posted 5.67 runs per game over the first 18 games of the season. A major part of the team’s offense is first-baseman Josh Ockimey. Ockimey has already clubbed five home runs, which is tied with three other players for top mark in Low-A, and one more than he hit in 229 PA with Lowell in 2015. He has two doubles and a triple to go with those home runs, all together posting a .629 slugging percentage that is sixth highest among hitters with at least 50 PA. He can really mash. Even better news is that while he can clearly crush baseballs, he is not doing so at the expense of a wildly high strikeout rate. He has struck out 16 times but has impressively walked almost as many times (14). Of course we must recognize the South Atlantic League, in which the Drive play, tends to be favorable for hitters, but Ockimey’s early results are still excellent.

Surprisingly, the Drive’s offense has been as good as it has been despite a slow start from top-10 prospect Austin Rei. Rei did not hit well last season at Lowell (.179/.285/.295) and that has continued in 2016 at the next level. Through his first 52 trips to the plate, Rei has managed a .186/.327/.302 line. The on-base percentage is nice to see, but he is striking out twice as often as he is walking (12:6), which is really troubling. However, the top-10 ranking was not hinged on his offense, but rather his playing a premium position. The BP prospect team suggested that his defense was terrific and how he would provide value to the organization. It is impossible for me to comment on his defense without actually watching Rei over multiple games, but a concerning report at SoxProspects.com outlines his defense being much more variable than expected; combining excellent moments with an inability to catch pitches in the strike zone. These defensive issues could be due to lingering issues with a left-thumb ligament injury. If they continue, essentially tanking his standout tool, his prospect stock could fall dramatically.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Teddy Stankiewicz may be the most interesting pitching prospect in the Red Sox system.  At 6’4, 200 pounds, with a four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, changeup, slider), the 22-year-old Texan has the prototypical frame, build and makeup of a major league starting pitcher.

Entering what will be his third full professional season, the young right-hander is someone to watch, as he has the tools to soar up the Red Sox prospect rankings this year.

As a senior in high school, Stankiewicz, who was 18-years-old at the time, was selected 75th (2nd rd) by the New York Mets in the 2012 draft, but the two sides were unable to reach a deal.  Stankiewicz spent the 2012 season at Seminole Junior College in Oklahoma before re-entering the draft in 2013, when he was selected 45th (2nd rd) by the Red Sox as a 19-year-old.  Although the negotiations between Stankiewicz and the Red Sox went better than the one with the Mets, they did not go off without issue.

Stankiewicz was due to receive $1.1 million from the Red Sox, but the team discovered during a routine physical that he does not have a right pectoral muscle.  As a result, the team and Stankiewicz agreed to reduce the signing amount by $200,000.  Considering Stankiewicz has been throwing a low-to-mid-90s fastball since he was 18-years-old, this clearly has not been an issue for Stankiewicz and doctors say it never will be.  The only impact it has on Stankiewicz and baseball relates to his workout routine.  For example, there are certain exercises in the gym, i.e. bench press, that he avoids.

In his first three professional seasons, Stankiewicz’s strike-throwing ability has been his best attribute.  He works quickly and has great control over his fastball and slider, which are his two best pitches.  With more development, his changeup also has the potential to be an above-average pitch for him.  There is no doubt Stankiewicz prides himself on being a workhorse and always in control of his pitches.

Although he issues very few walks, Stankiewicz also does not register many outs via strikeout.  Rather, he relies on batters putting the ball in play and his defenders doing the rest.

Although he issues very few walks, Stankiewicz also does not register many outs via strikeout.  Rather, he relies on batters putting the ball in play and his defenders doing the rest.  In so doing, Stankiewicz limits his pitch count and eats innings for his team, and we all know how valuable that quality is and how expensive it is too.  A 200-inning pitcher will cost you close to $100 million in today’s MLB (see Mike Leake), so the development of Stankiewicz is important to the team, but it is also critical to his value as an asset should the Red Sox choose to ever dangle him in trade talks.

Stankiewicz has moved up a level every year of his professional career.  In 2013, right after the draft, Stankiewicz was sent to Single-A Lowell, where, as a 19-year-old, he was 2.3 years younger than the average player at that level.  Stankiewicz pitched 19.1 innings over nine starts, struck out 15, walked only two and finished with a 2.29 ERA.

In 2014, Stankiewicz moved up a level to Single-A Greenville for his first full professional season.  Stankiewicz, at 20-years-old, was 1.7 years younger than the average player at that level.  Stankiewicz compiled 140.1 innings over 25 starts and walked only 29 batters, which is incredible.  However, he only struck out 102 batters.  He finished the season with a 3.72 ERA.

In 2015, Stankiewicz moved up to the Carolina League, an advanced Single-A level, where he played for Salem.  Stankiewicz pitched the entire season as a 21-year-old, which is nearly two years younger than the average player at that level. You might be noticing a theme here; Stank has been young for his levels.

What Went Right in 2015

Despite receiving minimal run support and sub-par defense behind him, which is not a good thing for a pitcher who relies on his defenders for most of his outs, Stankiewicz continued to do what he does best by throwing strikes and innings.

Given his age and the issues around him, it is hard to see Stankiewicz’s 2015 season as anything but a developmental success.  He started 25 games, threw 141.1 innings and handed out only 32 walks, which amounts to approximately two walks per nine innings.  His 141.1 innings was fourth-best in the Carolina League in 2015.  Stankiewicz finished the season with a 4.01 ERA, thanks in part to slowing down near the end of the season.

In addition to continuing to develop where he is strongest — control and durability — Stankiewicz demonstrated he is capable of being dominant when he puts all of it together.  On May 25th, Stankiewicz threw eight shutout innings, permitting only three batters to reach base (2 hits, 1 walk).  Then, on July 3rd, Stankiewicz flashed his strikeout potential as well, throwing seven shutout innings, surrendering three hits, zero walks and striking out nine batters, which was a season-high.  On July 15th, he threw six shutout innings and in his final start of the season, Stankiewicz threw seven shutout innings, surrendering five hits and only two walks.  There is nothing better than finishing on a high note, which was even more important for Stankiewicz given the struggles he had experienced in his prior three starts.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Although he pitched the entire 2015 season at only 21-years-old, Stankiewicz’s struggles cannot be overlooked and there were plenty in 2015.  For example, he failed to improve in any statistical category.

Since Stankiewicz pitched nearly identical innings in both 2014 and 2015, it is quite easy to compare his numbers and the comparisons are not good.  While he struck out 102 batters in 2014, he only struck out 77 in 2015, which lowered his SO/9IP from 6.5 to 4.9.  Although the differences were barely noticeable, he gave up more hits, walks and home runs in 2015, resulting in an increase in his WHIP from 1.211 in 2014 to 1.281 in 2015.

As mentioned before, Stankiewicz started the same amount of games and pitched nearly the same amount of innings in 2015 that he did in 2014, which may be a bad thing.  Given the fact he was fourth in the Carolina League in innings pitched, it is hard to criticize that aspect of his season, but should he not have seen a larger increase in his workload than one inning?

Outlook for 2016/MLB ETA

Stankiewicz will be moving up to Double-A ball in 2016, joining the Portland Sea Dogs, where he will once again be one of the younger players on his team.  He is projected to be the ace and workhorse of Portland’s rotation, which may put him in line for a call-up to Pawtucket if a need arises.

After throwing 140 innings the last two seasons, do not be surprised if the Red Sox let him approach or exceed the 160-inning threshold.  If so, it will be fascinating to watch because if at age-22, Stankiewicz can replicate his successes from 2014 and 2015 at the Double-A level, he may find himself in the top-10 of the Red Sox prospect rankings heading into 2017.

Stankiewicz needs at least another full season in the minor leagues and that is exactly what is going to happen in 2016.  His best-case scenario for 2016 is finishing the season in Pawtucket, which is entirely possible given his position within the system and Portland’s rotation. From there, it depends.  Beyond that, well, there are a lot of pitchers ahead of him for the Red Sox 2017 rotation, especially if Clay Buchholz’s 2017 option is exercised and Joe Kelly and/or Henry Owens breaks out as well.  That’s putting the cart before the horse though; Stank needs to further develop his secondaries and prove he can miss bats before we worry about him making the rotation in Boston.

The 2016 season will tell us a lot about Stankiewicz and whether or not he can become a back-end, cost-effective workhorse for the Red Sox rotation.  As we all know, the Red Sox have been searching for a 200-inning pitcher for quite some time and hope to have finally found one in David Price, which only cost them $217 million.  That is what makes Stankiewicz potentially so valuable.  Not everyone can be the ace of a rotation and strike 10 batters out per game.  Teams who succeed need the workhorse as well, the guy you can rely on to take the ball every fifth day, start 30-plus games, pitch 190-plus innings and save your bullpen more often than not.  That is who Stankiewicz is capable of becoming.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Deven Marrero, SS/2B and Jorge Marban, RHP

Marrero’s ascension to the big leagues was faster than most expected given his low offensive production in Triple-A and the occupied infield spots on the major league club. However, injuries to the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Brock Holt have provided him with multiple call-ups to the Red Sox, even if he’s been limited to seven plate appearances and a pair of pinch-running situations. He’s yet to do much with those opportunities, but the 2012 first round pick is at least making his case for a longer major-league stint when the roster expands in September. Marrero has never projected to be an outstanding hitter, sporting a fringe-average hit tool, so his .244 true average in Triple-A this season isn’t of real concern. However, the 24-year-old has been hot since rejoining the PawSox Aug. 12, batting .307 (16-for-52) over the last 12 games. He’s recorded a base hit in all but one game since being sent back down.

Although it’s a small sample size, and only one of those hits – a home run on Sunday – has gone for extra bases, Marrero’s production should help him further his case for a return to Boston come September. Of course, the true value of Marrero lies in his glove. He’s a plus defender with a strong arm and elite athleticism, making him capable of playing anywhere in the infield. If the Red Sox are smart, Pedroia will barely, if at all, see the field for the rest of the season, and playing Josh Rutledge every day serves no long-term purpose. That should at least open some opportunities for Marrero to play second base. And, of course, any excuse to bench Pablo Sandoval and start someone else at third is a good one. Add in some offensive production on Marrero’s part and his overall value expands.

Jorge Marban’s journey to Triple-A has been a lengthy one. The 26-year-old righty flamed out in 2011 after two miserable seasons in the Rangers organization, and has since seen his baseball career take him through three years in the independent leagues before landing in the Australian Baseball League at 25 years old. He sported a 2.12 ERA and 11.65 K/9 in 24 appearances in Australia before being signed by Red Sox scout Steve Fish, who also managed Marban’s ABL team last November. Since then Marban has rapidly risen through the Sox’s system and is well on his way to earning a shot at the majors in the coming years. He started this season in High-A Salem, but has since worked his way up to Pawtucket after just 32 appearances combined in Salem and Portland, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. He posted a 1.36 ERA, 3.76 FIP and 7.09 K/9 in Double-A before being called up and making his Triple-A debut Aug. 14.

The results have been encouraging for Marban through three appearances in Pawtucket. He’s allowed just one run over 6.1 innings, striking out nine batters. This isn’t to say Marban is a sure thing, of course. He’s not the savior of Boston’s dreadful bullpen. Although he has his strengths – he mixes a nasty splitter with a mid-90s fastball that creates swings and misses at an impressive rate – Marban’s command is still a concern. He posted a 6.00 BB/9 in Portland and has already totaled three walks in his brief Triple-A stint. He also possesses a slider that needs work. However, considering how long it’s taken Marban just to get to this point, the fact that he’s ascended this quickly and is making a name for himself is encouraging enough for this season.

Double-A Portland: Manuel Margot, OF and Carlos Asuaje 2B/3B

Manuel Margot entered the season as the Red Sox’s third-ranked prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Given his natural bat-to-ball ability, his power potential and his speed and athleticism, it was a well-deserved recognition. He lived up to that hype with a solid stint in High-A Salem, sporting a .271 TAv, .339 wOBA and 113 wRC+ in 46 games before being promoted to Double-A Portland in late June at just 20 years old. Double-A, however, has been a struggle for the outfielder, especially over the past month. Margot is hitting .241 (14-for-58) in August, dropping his TAv to .250 in Portland. At this point, it’s natural to question whether or not he was ready to be promoted. Given Margot is only 20, there is certainly no need to rush him through the system. He’s had a difficult time adjusting to Double-A pitching, and his strikeout rate (14.7 percent) is the highest it’s been at any level since his summer with short-season Lowell two years ago.

Manny Margot. Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Margot excels with a fluid swing and an excellent approach. It’d be crazy not to expect his plus offensive tools to lead to results at the Double-A level. One thing hurting him, however, is his aggressiveness early in counts. That’ll catch up to him as he faces better pitching with each promotion, which is evident in the ballooning strikeout rate and the weak contact he’s generating in Portland. These flaws, and his poor numbers in Double-A overall, aren’t to say this season has been bad overall. He’s already totaled 36 stolen bases and 34 extra-base hits for the year. However, his path to the major leagues, particularly as a mainstay, may take more time than the late 2016 ETA that some had projected before the season.

Yes, we just highlighted Carlos Asuaje in last week’s prospect update. But at that time he wasn’t riding a nine-game hitting streak. He’s collected multiple hits in four of those nine games, including a four-hit effort last Wednesday. Asuaje’s numbers haven’t been particularly impressive in his first full season in Double-A, as he owns a .268 TAv and .340 wOBA in 2015. But they’re not bad for a player who projects to be nothing more than a utility player if he can reach the big leagues. Asuaje has primarily played second base this season, but he’s also seen time at third and left field. That versatility alone gives him value to an organization. Offensively he’s shown average hit potential with below-average power, but he’s good at finding the gaps for extra bases. In fact, he leads the Eastern League with seven triples this season and is also in the top half of the league with 22 doubles. His approach and knowledge of the strike zone are also positives.

High-A Salem: Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP

Teddy Stankiewicz appeared to be turning a corner. After a dreadful first three months that saw him get hit hard on numerous occasions, the righty finally started finding consistent success on the mound this season, tossing a pair of shutouts over a four-start stretch in which he struck out at least three hitters per outing. Stankiewicz was back to his early season ways on Friday, however, allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in what was arguably his worst start of the season. He seemed to struggle with his control in particular, walking one batter, hitting another and throwing two wild pitches. Although he’s been better overall, Stankiewicz is letting pitches get away from him, as he’s hit four batters over his last three starts. That inability to find the strike zone is surprising given his command – he owns a 1.75 BB/9 this season – has been one of his strengths throughout his career. Friday’s letdown upped his FIP to 4.03 for the season.

Every bad outing from Stankiewicz is notable given his failings this season. However, that shouldn’t discount the way he’s improved since mid-July. He was at his best at this time last season in Low-A Greenville and at 21 has plenty of time to develop. Let’s also not forget he came into this season with a whole new delivery, which would naturally lead to a learning curve. Perhaps his next start, which will be one of his final of the season, will be a better indicator of whether it was just a bad start amidst a string of good ones, or a sign that poor outings are still a habit. Regardless, what continues to make Stankiewicz valuable is his ability to eat innings. The righty is eighth in the Carolina League in innings pitched (123.1) and has made at least one fewer start than four of the seven hurlers in front of him. Imagine what those numbers could look like if those innings become more productive.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B

Rafael Devers is like the film Titanic. It’s nearly impossible to find a bad thing written or said about either of the two. Devers has garnered James Cameron’s film-esque praise throughout this season. Heck, he’s received plenty of attention on this site alone. Devers has earned it, of course, but we’re not here today to spend too much time drooling over his plus hit tools and 30 home run potential (although those have been pretty impressive so far). Since I’m in charge of the next paragraph and I’m no fun, we’re going to be a little picky (I promise, just a little). The one thing that’s been concerning about Devers’ approach lately has been his rising strikeout rate. Although a 17.5 percent K% isn’t terrible for an 18-year-old with plus bat speed and solid mechanics for his age, it’s worth noting this number has gotten progressively worse, whether it be due to a naturally aggressive approach or pitchers finding new ways to attack him. He held a 15.8 percent mark before the All-Star break. He’s struck out at a 23.7 percent rate since Aug. 1.

Should we be alarmed by such drastic spike? I wasn’t sure at first, so I decided to compare it to a player he’s drawn multiple similarities to: Robinson Cano. Cano played a single season of Low-A ball for Greensboro in the South Atlantic League at 19 years old in 2002. His slash line that season (.276/.321/.445) was notably similar to Devers’ 2015 marks so far (.275/.318/.433), but Cano struck out at a less eyebrow-raising 15.3 percent rate that season. So is Devers’ rise in strikeouts a concern? Yes, primarily because that has the potential to only get worse if he’s promoted to High-A next season – unless he can improve his approach. However, if you’re still hoping for Devers to become the next Cano, there’s still plenty of reason for optimism.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson, LHP and Travis Shaw, 1B

For what seemed like the longest time, Brian Johnson was pitching in the shadow of Henry Owens. All it took was a great start to the 2015 season for him to step out into the spotlight. Despite a true out pitch, Johnson has managed a 8.76 K/9, and even when he’s not mowing them down at the plate, he’ll get a grounder 46% of the time. He’s got solid control over all four of his pitches, and when that’s combined with his fast pitching tempo Johnson can quickly wear down batters.  Johnson makes up for the lack of overwhelming stuff with his great knowledge of sequencing and ability to read hitters.

He will find a way to get batters out, whether it’s by way of the K or on the ground to someone like Deven Marrero at short. In his 283.2-inning-long minor league career, Johnson has only surrendered 14 homers. If there’s a way to get you out, Johnson will find a way to do it. With the recent call-up of Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s not too much of a jump to assume that Johnson will get a spot start of his own soon enough.

If Travis Shaw didn’t have bad luck this year, he’d have no luck at all. A .240 BABIP has torpedoed his offensive output thus far, dropping his slugging percentage by 110 points. The good news is that he’s still taking walks and striking out far less often. His strikeout rate has come down from 22% all the way to 14% while his walk rate has kept steady at 8.0%, giving him time to let those liners fall in. Shaw excels in cranking out hits to the right-center power alley. At 25, the power might progress a tad bit more, but because of his limitations against same-side pitching, we’re not going to see dingers galore anytime soon. Shaw’s work ethic is admirable and might earn him a little more than a cup of coffee soon, but a starting job in the majors isn’t likely.

Double-A Portland: Keury De La Cruz, OF

De La Cruz has one thing in spades: power. He terrified pitchers in Greenville in his 2012 season, when he slugged a ridiculous .536 in 500 PA. Three years after that season-long thrashing, De La Cruz is slowly adjusting to life in the high minors, where pitches actually bend, and fastballs can exploit holes in a swing. To his credit, he absolutely annihilates anything low in the zone, but high fastballs will avoid his swing easily. It’s not uncommon to think that De La Cruz sits dead red on fastballs, and he’ll often be caught going fishing for a pitcher’s secondaries. After a year in Portland, he’s finally learned to relax at the plate and stop hacking so much, as his quick wrists & violent swing need to be able to punish any mistake pitch, not just fastballs that miss low. Time may be running out for the 23-year-old outfielder, but an improvement with his patience could at least get him a ride up to Pawtucket in the near future.

High-A Salem: Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP

There’s something said for a guy who can get grounders and maximize his K/BB ratio: useful. Stankiewicz has made it his calling card to rack up great ratios everywhere he goes. In Greenville, he has 102 strikeouts to 29 walks in 140 innings. In Salem so far, it’s 26 K to 9 BB in 53.2 IP. The velocity isn’t overwhelming, but Stankiewicz’s control of his fastball and slider give him the confidence to consistently throw strikes, and he’ll throw a changeup and a 11-5 curve to keep batters honest. Not only does Teddy hurl strikes and only strikes, he’s been getting a lot of weak contact. In Greenville, his GB% hovered around 40%, but in Salem, it’s jumped all the way to 46%. Stankiewicz is one to keep an eye on, as any pitcher with a good tendency to induce grounders, issue few walks and possess the potential for four solid pitches looks like a keeper.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B and Javier Guerra, SS

You cannot stop Rafael Devers; you can only hope to contain him. He’s absolutely torched any opposition in the South Atlantic League to the tune of a .328/.363/.474 slash line. Devers has a good approach to the plate and is willing to take his fair share of walks, but in Greenville, he’s has been walking less while striking out less as well, so he can utilize that fantastic all-fields power tool he possesses. On top of all this, Devers is just 18 years young, so he has time to develop that power further. With his quick wrists and superb bat speed, don’t be surprised if Devers rockets through the low minors just on the strength of his offense.

In the field, there are a fair few question marks. Devers isn’t the most athletic player, and he’s noted as looking rigid when making plays. Improved footwork has made his arm more of an asset, but he’s only just reached the ugly-isn’t-a-stat level with his fielding. Third base is still on the table for Devers, and he’ll be given every chance to succeed, but first base is a viable option if his glove doesn’t live up to expectations.

While Devers is bat-first, glove-whenever, Javier Guerra is normally the opposite. The young Panamanian is a wizard with the leather at shortstop, possessing tons of confidence in the field, and isn’t afraid of charging balls or ranging far for a play. He’s got great instincts, as Guerra has a fast first step on contact. Normally, Guerra would be aggressive at the plate and swing early and often, but we’ve seen some advancement this season. Guerra’s triple slash of .287/.353/.475 is buoyed by a insanely high .410 BABIP, but the key here is his patience. In 207 PA last year, he had only 5 walks. In 138 this year, he’s got 12. The bat will determine if Guerra is ticketed for a utility role or a starting job, and being able to put together a good approach at just 19 years old is a solid step forward.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Garin Cecchini, 3B and Deven Marrero, 2B

At the end of the 2014 season, Cecchini got a brief stint in the majors, appearing in 11 games. There was at least some discussion this offseason that Cecchini could be the starting third baseman for the 2015 season. Then the Red Sox signed Pablo Sandoval to a five-year contract in November, blocking Cecchini’s advancement to the major leagues within the Red Sox organization. This season at Pawtucket, Cecchini has only played in 22 of the team’s 32 games, a result of a shoulder injury that landed him on the disabled list. Generally, Cecchini has not performed very well. In 92 plate appearances he has a .171 TAv. A real issue is that he is striking out a lot, 28 times so far this year, and only has three walks.

One potentially positive development is that Cecchini has moved around the diamond more this season, including accumulating some experience in the outfield. He has played nine games at third base, three games at first base, and nine games in left field. This is certainly a test of Cecchini’s versatility, and for a team that is already flush with outfielders this seems like an effort to show potential trade partners what Cecchini can do in the outfield. It is also possible the Red Sox are grooming Cecchini for a role as a bench player. Regardless of where he is playing defensively, Cecchini’s hitting numbers are going to need to dramatically improve for him to get another chance in the majors, as he’s always been viewed as a bat-first player.

Deven Marrero.

Marrero is in a similar developmental place as Cecchini. He is one of the top Red Sox prospects, ranked 9^th by Baseball America, and considered a strong candidate to impact the major league team by the Baseball Prospectus team. Unfortunately, he is blocked by Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, and Dustin Pedroia at second base. He is projected as a plus defender, but there are plenty of questions surrounding his bat. This season at Pawtucket, however, he is hitting well: .281 TAv, 8.6% walk rate, and nine extra base hits in 105 PAs. These marks are all better than they were last season, when he had a .190 Tav, 5.9% walk rate, and 12 extra base hits in 202 PAs. This improvement at the level is nice to see and if he keeps hitting like he is so far this season, he could be a really intriguing player for a team that is looking to acquire middle infield help.

Double-A Portland: Simon Mercedes, RHP

Mercedes was used as a starting pitcher while at High-A Salem last year, but this year at Portland has only been used as a relief pitcher. Things have not been going smoothly thus far. In seven appearances (20.1 innings pitched) he has allowed 11 runs, nearly equaled his hits allowed (11) and walk (8) totals, and only struck out 14 batters. I say only 14 batters because on a rate basis, his current rate is lower than the rate he posted in Salem last season by a little over three percent. The advancement in levels likely accounts for much of that decrease but I would expect that his moving to a relief role would increase the strikeout totals. Though he has served as a reliever, Mercedes has been used in extended outings, typically 2-3 innings, so it is not necessarily the case that he can just come in for an inning and let his fastball burn. With that said, if he is going to end up with a role in the major leagues he will needs to start showing swing-and-miss stuff. His 4.00 FIP suggests that he has pitched better than his 4.43 ERA, but the 4.00 FIP still leaves something to be desired. It is still early days, so the 23-year old Mercedes certainly has time to get things on track.

High-A Salem: Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, and Ty Buttrey, RHP

Thus far, Stankiewicz has shown that his promotion to High-A was justified. In six starts he has a 3.86 ERA and 2.98 FIP, has struck out 19 batters, and only walked seven, which is a fine ratio. His rates (14.0 K%, 5.2 BB%) could use some improvement, but still look promising. He has yet to allow a home run this season, and has only given up eight extra-base hits. Stankiewicz is only 21-years old, so he is still slightly young for the level, or at least on an appropriate developmental track.

Stanky refuses to allow homers.

Stankiewicz’s new teammate, Buttrey, made the jump from Low-A Greenville to Salem after making just four starts this season. But those four starts were excellent. In 22.0 innings pitched he posted a 2.45 ERA, 3.24 FIP, struck out a batter per inning, and only walked three. Since joining the Greenville squad Buttrey has made two starts: a rough debut (5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 6 BB, 3 SO) and a solid second outing (7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 SO). All told he is currently sitting with a 2.25 ERA and 3.32 FIP, which looks pretty nice. Buttrey is eight months older than Stankiewicz, and so is again on a reasonable developmental track. If he can consistently look like the pitcher in his second outing for Salem, he could move up another level later this season.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis, 3B

Michael Chavis is 19 years old and his performance thus far shows some of the struggles that can be expected from players his age. In 99 PAs Chavis has a .207 TAv, and is striking out a third of the time. These marks place him well below league average as an offensive contributor (77 wRC+). Half of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases (six doubles, three homers) which seems promising, except for his only having 18 hits which sort of limits the excitement. Chavis will have time to develop at this level and, as noted in his scouting report at SoxProspects.com, may see his position change to second base or the outfield.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com

From 1998 through 2011 the Red Sox never won fewer than 82 games, a 14-year stretch that included two World Series championships, 10 second-place finishes in the AL East (damn Yankees) and a near annual late-season playoff push. Then, after a beer-and-chicken-fueled pennant race tailspin in 2011, a collapse which cost the Red Sox a playoff appearance, a sub-70 win (non-strike) season invaded Fenway Park in 2012 for the first time since — wait for it — 1965.

The 2012 Red Sox featured an ugly combination of underperformance (specifically from the pitching staff), injuries, and a Bobby Valentine managerial experiment gone wrong. The starting rotation, which was supposed to be anchored by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, didn’t feature a single regular with an ERA+ better than average. The bullpen wasn’t much better, as far too many high-leverage innings went to the likes of Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon, a duo that combined for an ERA approaching six and allowed 19 home runs. The offense held its end of the bargain better than the pitching staff, but it was plagued by key injuries to David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury while surrendering too many plate appearances to the Mike Avileses and Pedro Ciriacos of the world.

From 1998 through 2011 the Red Sox never won fewer than 82 games.

Following an all-too-brief, all-too-enjoyable respite from the cellar in 2013 (more on that later), the 2014 Red Sox again finished in last-place as the Orioles ran away with the divisional crown. Young players like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. were entrusted with starting roles and didn’t produce as expected (particularly Bradley), while the offense as a whole was uncharacteristically punchless – only David Ortiz (35), Mike Napoli (17), and Bogaerts (12) hit more than 10 home runs. The starting rotation, outside of Jon Lester and a league-averagish John Lackey (both dealt away at the deadline), was a disaster. Bad Clay Buchholz returned, and the back-end of the staff rotated four different pitchers with at least 10 starts and a strikeout-to-walk ratio under two.

The silver lining, of course, is that the 2013 Red Sox won another World Series and this year’s team, by both PECOTA and FanGraphs, projects to finish atop the muddled AL East. One would hope that a trip to the basement doesn’t have to precede every winning season in a post-Theo world, especially for a franchise with Boston’s financial clout, but there are a number of ways in which recent Red Sox failures have helped set up future success.

Major-league development of young players

Teams that win every year have to deal with a delightful burden: they have to play every game to win. For the most part, that’s a good thing. You know, for obvious reasons. On the downside, it makes it difficult to incorporate young players into the major-league mix.

Take the Yankees, who’ve only made one playoff appearance over the last three seasons, and missed October baseball in consecutive years in 2013 and 2014 for the first time since 1993. Despite the postseason whiffs, the Yankees have stayed in the hunt in both of those campaigns, failing to bow out of the race until season’s end. In part because of that, last year’s Yankees team, for example, only had one position player under 30 years old – Yangervis Solarte, who was traded in July for the older Chase Headley – rack up more than 200 plate appearances. In fact, New York hasn’t handed a significant amount of playing time to a position player under age-25 since Eduardo Nunez turned the trick in 2011, perhaps by using a fake date-of-birth that aged him five years.

Here’s a list of 25-and-under position players that received more than 200 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2014 alone:

In each case, the Red Sox were able to glean valuable information about young talent, giving them a better foundation from which to make decisions heading into 2015.

Middlebrooks, Bradley, and Bogaerts were expected to be major contributors right out of the gate last season, back when the Red Sox thought they were contenders. Between two more trips to the disabled list and an otherwise hackworthy repeat of past struggles when he was on the field, Boston finally decided to pull the plug on the Will Middlebrooks Project, dealing him to the trade-happy Padres this offseason for defense-oriented catcher Ryan Hanigan. Like Middlebrooks, Bradley Jr., despite all-world defense in centerfield, played his way out of the 2015 outfield picture with a cringe-worthy .198 TAv in a lengthy look last season after a lackluster debut in 2013. Bogaerts largely struggled as well, but at just 21 years old, there were enough positive strides to allow the Red Sox to stick with him essentially all season – and with a playoff berth unlikely by mid-summer, there was little reason to ship him off to Pawtucket in hopes of finding a short-term replacement.

Fielding a last-place club in 2014 allowed the Sox to call up prospects later in the year for extended cameos.

Perhaps more beneficial than sticking with young players mired in season-long slumps, fielding a last-place club in 2014 allowed the Sox to call up prospects later in the year for extended cameos. One of those players was minor league sensation Mookie Betts, who was hitting .346/.431/.529 between Double-A and Triple-A (at age-21) when Boston decided to make him its everyday center fielder in mid-August. Betts rewarded the Red Sox by hitting .317 in September while showing the type of plate discipline that helped him climb the prospect ladder with a helium-fueled jetpack. Betts started 2015 as the everyday center fielder and, per PECOTA, is projected to be the best player on the team.

The Red Sox also called up catcher Christian Vazquez on July 9th, a defensive specialist who lived up to his name in 50 starts behind the dish last season. Though Vazquez only OPSed .617 in 201 plate appearances, he displayed enough pitch-framing expertise (plus-32.3 framing runs/7,000) and control of the running game (52 percent caught stealing percentage) to make him the Sox’s Opening Day choice this spring until Tommy John surgery reared its ugly head.

The 2014 pitching staff featured a similar trend: the quintet of Rubby De La Rosa (25), Brandon Workman (25), Felix Doubront (26), Allen Webster (24), and Anthony Ranaudo (24) received 61 combined starts, enough work for Boston to decide that its 2015 rotation, at least initially, wouldn’t include any of them.

Scouting and stat-based projections give a team a solid idea of what a minor league player can provide once he reaches the majors, but there’s no replacement for evaluating that player in action against the game’s best competition. Whether it was Mookie Betts’ .388 on-base percentage or Anthony Ranaudo’s 8.8 strikeout percentage, last year the Red Sox were able to use Fenway Park as a test ground for prospects, a benefit that wouldn’t have been available had they been in the thick of a playoff hunt.

The trades (and non-trades)

In both 2012 and 2014, the Red Sox, not surprisingly, didn’t make a single (major) trade that was aimed at improving the current team’s status.

The Red Sox’s failures in 2014 led to them landing Eduardo Rodriguez.

Last year, Boston made a number of deals that were focused on a quick 2015 turnaround. The Sox dealt Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes (who ultimately turned into Rick Porcello), ensuring they’d get something for Lester if a long-term free agent deal never materialized. John Lackey was dealt at the deadline (along with lefty Corey Littrell) for Allen Craig and Joe Kelley, two players who figure to make an impact on this year’s team. The Red Sox also made a number of deals that are typical of losing clubs, shipping out spare parts for prospects of various promise: Andrew Miller was sent to Baltimore for left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (currently ranked fourth in the system), Felix Doubront was traded to the Cubs for a player to be named later (eventually infielder Marco Hernandez), and Jake Peavy was dealt to San Francisco for two pitchers named Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree.

If we harken back a little further, outside of a few small-scale moves, the 2012 Red Sox largely stood pat — that is, of course, until Ben Cherington and Co. executed a late-August blockbuster that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to the Dodgers in exchange for James Loney, Ivan Dejesus, Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Jerry Sands. That trade didn’t work out quite as well as planned, only because Webster, the top prospect brought over in the deal, disappointed in 18 starts in the majors before being shipped to Arizona with De La Rosa for Wade Miley this offseason. More than the disappointing return, though, the trade allowed the Red Sox to famously get back to their 2004 roots. They used their newfound financial freedom on short-term, value-oriented deals in the 2012-2013 offseason, adding the likes of Shane Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Koji Uehara, all of whom played large roles in Boston’s resurgent 2013 World Series run.

Another benefit to major league suckitude: not having to exchange prospects for short-term needs. Here’s what’s happened to Kevin Goldstein’s 2012 Red Sox top 20:

1. Xander Bogaerts, SS – Still in organization, starting shortstop
2. Brandon Jacobs, OF – Traded to White Sox in 2013
3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B – Traded to Padres this offseason
4. Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH – Claimed off waivers by Dodgers this offseason
5. Blake Swihart, C – Still in org., No. 1 ranked prospect
6. Bryce Brentz, OF –Still in org.
7. Matt Barnes, RHP – Still in org., No. 7 ranked prospect
8. Garin Cecchini, 3B – Still in org., No. 8 ranked prospect
9. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP – Traded to Rangers in 2015
10. Jose Iglesias, SS – Traded to Tigers in 2013
11. Sean Coyle, 2B – Still in org.
12. Jose Vinicio, SS – Still in org.
13. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF – Still in org.
14. Henry Owens, LHP – Still in org., No. 2 ranked prospect
15. Alex Wilson, RHP – Traded to Tigers this offseason
16. Brandon Workman, RHP – Still in org.
17. Drake Britton, LHP – Claimed off waivers by Cubs this offseason
18. Stolmy Pimental, RHP – Traded to Pirates in 2012
19. Williams Jerez, OF – Still in org.
20. Cody Kukuk, LHP – Still in org.

The Red Sox have held on to 13 of the 20 prospects from a list made over three years ago. Sure, Boston swapped Jacobs for relief help during the 2013 season, but he was already on the downtrend and certainly hasn’t panned out. Most of the other players traded or released on this list – like Middlebrooks and Lavarnway — were sent packing only after Boston had seen enough to know they were no longer part of the long-term plan. In turn, the Sox have been able to stash players like Bogaerts, Swihart, Owens, Barnes, Ceccini, and Bradley Jr. away in the minors, patiently waiting as they develop into major-league contributors or premium trade bait. Range closer, to Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 Red Sox top 10, and you’ll find only one player – Webster – who has been dealt from that list.

Thanks to two losing seasons in three years and a good dose of patience, the Red Sox have been able to hoard a collection of young talent that rivals any team outside of Chicago.

Increased amateur budgets

Perhaps the most tangible area positively impacted by poor major-league records is amateur spending, an area where winning teams are punished by the rules accompanying the latest CBA. In both the stateside amateur draft and in the international amateur free agent market, teams are given an allotted signing bonus pool based on their previous year’s record and they’re encouraged to stay within those guidelines with a set of increasingly harsh penalties for over-spending. Below is a table that shows the Red Sox bonus pools for the draft and international amateur market in both 2013 and 2015 (data from Baseball America), the years after they finished last in the AL East:

*Estimated, as official figures haven’t been released

Let’s start with the draft. The numbers here aren’t staggering at first glance, but consider this: when the Sox scored the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft, it was their highest first-round selection since they took Trot Nixon at No. 7 in 1993. In fact, Boston had a recent stretch from 2004 through 2010 where it didn’t have a single pick inside the first-round’s top 20. Yes, the burdens of success — of course, the Red Sox did an excellent job developing home-grown talent in many of those years, a credit to their ability to draft and develop. Still, early draft picks are a good thing, especially when you forget about how you got them.

The Red Sox picked Trey Ball seventh overall in 2013. They have the seventh overall pick again in 2015.

In 2013, the Red Sox signed both of their first two picks, left-handed pitcher Trey Ball and right-handed pitcher Teddy Stankiewicz, to below-slot deals. That, combined with a run of $10,000 college senior signings in rounds eight through 10, allowed the Red Sox plenty of flexibility at other points in the draft. The Sox were able to lure highly coveted catcher Jon Denney away from an Arkansas commit with an above-slot third-round deal, and they were also able sign four players from rounds 11 through 40 to deals over $100,000, including a $440,000 splurge in the 30th-round on high school outfielder Nick Longhi. The results have been mixed – Ball’s dipped out of most Red Sox top 10s while Denney didn’t play at all in 2014 after a spring training arrest, but both Stankiewicz and Longhi made solid pro debuts. Regardless of the returns on a draft just two years old, thanks to their 69-win season in 2012, the Red Sox were able to take high-upside talent early in the draft while using their hefty signing bonus pool for later round flexibility.

The Red Sox are again set to draft seventh in the 2015 draft, another positive side effect from last year’s 71-win campaign. And since the first 10 picks in the draft are protected, the Red Sox were able to sign both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez while retaining their top overall selection. The Sox did have to surrender their next two picks as part of their offseason spending spree, leaving them without a second pick until the third-round (81st overall) and with a middle-of-the-pack $6.5 million signing bonus pool. The seventh overall pick gives Boston another chance to add premium talent early, even if injuries and a lack of star-power are taking their toll on the top of this year’s crop. There’s a possibility Boston takes a stab at working out a below-slot deal with a recent Tommy John casualty like Brady Aiken (last year’s first overall pick) or Duke’s Mike Matuella, again using saved first-round money to attract hard-to-sign talent later on.

On the international amateur market, Boston also reaped the rewards of a $3 million-plus bonus pool during the 2013-2014 July 2 signing period. They nabbed third basemen Rafael Devers for $1.5 million, and he used a mature left-handed stroke to post a .910 OPS as a 17-year-old in two rookie league stops last season, soaring up Red Sox prospect lists and sneaking inside Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 in the process. Boston used every penny of its budget during the 2013-2014 signing period, which included three more six-figure signees: left-handed pitchers Emmanuel DeJesus ($787,500) and Jhonathan Diaz ($600,000), and outfielder Yoan Aybar ($450,000). In fact, the Red Sox actually spent nearly five percent over their bonus pool, a maneuver that cost them a 75 percent tax on the overage but no future spending restrictions.

Early draft picks are a good thing, especially when you forget about how you got them.

During the upcoming 2015-2016 July 2 signing period, the Red Sox again have one of the highest bonus pools in the league; this year, however, they probably won’t be able to spend all of it. Since they blew past their budget in the most recent J-2 signing period with a class led by Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada, Boston won’t be able to ink an international amateur for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods. All isn’t lost, as the Red Sox can still spend as much of their pool as possible stockpiling $300,000-and-under international lottery tickets while trading away what’s left of the pool money.

Spending restrictions have made it harder for big-market teams to flex their financial muscle in amateur markets (well, sort of), but the Red Sox have been able to infuse their organization with high-upside talent thanks in part to their on-field collapses in 2012 and 2014, an unforeseen circumstance that’s helped them construct a top-heavy and deep minor league pipeline.

***

It’s dangerous to give the Red Sox too much credit — after all, in Cherington’s three years as general manager, the Sox have amassed an uninspiring .488 winning percentage with a yearly payroll that’s rivaled by only two or three teams. Where Cherington and Co. deserve praise is for their willingness to take their last-place medicine in stride, instead of throwing all their chips on the table in an all-out effort to win 80-odd games every season. For their patience, the Red Sox have been rewarded with a major-league roster full of young stars and capable veterans, a healthy farm system stocked with equals parts big-league ready talent and long-term projects, and the payroll flexibility to remain a threat for any free agent or contract extension candidate (see: Porcello, Rick).

There’s a point where it all could have gone wrong, where the Red Sox could have panicked and sold off the future for post-prime short-term upgrades. There’s a point where the Red Sox could have turned into the Phillies, grasping to the winning days of yore with the wrong players. Instead, as the new-look roster played home run derby on Opening Day against a Phillies team desperately fighting off the last stages of a full-on rebuild, the Red Sox have quickly repositioned themselves as an American League power. Losing 90-plus games in two of the last three years wasn’t in Ben Cherington’s blueprint for long-term success, but the way he handled the Red Sox recent misfortunes might deserve a new chapter of its own.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com