But after a week of reflecting and reminiscing, it’s time we look ahead to 2017. The Sox’s season was an overall success, winning the AL East after two straight last-place finishes. And the young core leaves few holes in the roster entering the offseason. That doesn’t mean there aren’t questions to be answered, however. Boston is a division-series bouncer that had its flaws exposed in the playoffs, and there are uncertainties at multiple positions. Dave Dombrowski, Mike Hazen’s replacement and friends now have to put together a roster primed to repeat as AL East champs and make a real playoff run.

What exactly should the Red Sox do? They don’t pay me to know those answers. But there are five questions that will need addressing before Opening Day.

1.) How do they handle their pitching staff?

Pitching was an issue that surfaced and resurfaced throughout the season and carried into the playoffs. First it was the starting rotation and then it was the bullpen through most of July and August. By September, the Red Sox figured it out and finished the year with the sixth-ranked team DRA (4.00). That’s great given where they were as a staff most of the year.

However, top starters Rick Porcello and David Price both struggled in the playoffs, continuing their respective runs of winlessness in October. Clay Buchholz was ok in Game 3. Ditto for Drew Pomeranz out of the bullpen in his Game 1 and 3 appearances. The bullpen, meanwhile, was among the best in the majors in September and remained reliable in the playoffs, as it allowed just two runs (by Pomeranz) over three games.

The Red Sox have all of their starters under contract for next season except for Buchholz, who has a team option for 2017 (we’ll discuss that more later on). They could bring back the same starting rotation and probably contend once again, especially if it looks more like the second-half version than the early season one. However, the starters’ postseason performance may incline management to pursue other options, such as pulling off a major blockbuster for a Chris Sale-like ace or tapping into the weak free-agent pitching market and signing a Doug Fister or Rich Hill type of player.

Next year’s bullpen may look a little different. Junichi Tazawa is probably gone, Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad are also pending free agents and there’s no telling what will happen with Koji Uehara. A healthy Carson Smith will upgrade a pen headlined by Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes. The only pending free agent the Sox will likely try bringing back is Ziegler. There are some notable names entering free agency this winter, including Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney, among others. One of those names could be on Boston’s radar as well.

2.) Who’s their starting third baseman?

The Red Sox made the right decision starting Travis Shaw at third base over Pablo Sandoval to start the season. Shaw was arguably the team’s worst hitter last season, finishing the year with a .246 TAv and 1.6 WARP as he didn’t start a playoff game. However, it was still an upgrade over Sandoval’s .229 TAv and -1.4 WARP in 2015.

The question now is who will get the job at third next season. Right now it looks to be between Shaw, Sandoval and Brock Holt, who started at third in the playoffs and slashed .400/.400/.800 over three games. The Sox could certainly use an upgrade, but will that come from the outside or within?

Odds are it will be the latter. Shaw proved productive enough thanks to all of the offense in front of him. Sandoval’s past success, and apparent weight loss, gives hope that he’s finally ready to turn things around. If none of that works, Holt is available to hold things down until Yoan Moncada is ready to take over. Your guess is as good as mine who will win the job.

3. What do they do with Clay Buchholz?

This is the second straight season the Red Sox have had to answer this question. Last year seemed like more of a no-brainer. Buchholz posted a 3.00 DRA in 2015 before suffering a season-ending injury, and the Sox were desperate for starting pitching. The only question was his durability.

This year, Buchholz’s issue wasn’t health. It was poor performance for most of the season. The right-hander owned a 5.79 ERA through his first 23 appearances. At that point it was a decent bet he’d be gone this offseason. However, his 3.02 ERA in August and September makes it more of a toss-up, if not more likely the Red Sox pick up his $13.5 million option. Price, Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Pomeranz would make for a solid starting rotation. But last season proved the importance of starting pitching depth as various injuries forced Buchholz back into the rotation multiple times.

Essentially, the Red Sox either let Buchholz walk and stick to the five they have or find depth by acquiring another starter and perhaps move Pomeranz to the bullpen. Or, they can bring Buchholz back for an affordable price and give this group another shot next year.

4.) How do they replace David Ortiz?

There’s no replacing Big Papi. However, the Red Sox do need to decide what to do at designated hitter next season. Ortiz was a known commodity for over a decade, and last season he was one of the two best hitters on the highest-scoring offense in the majors. His absence leaves the Red Sox with a major hole in their lineup.

At one point, Hanley Ramirez looked like the heir apparent at DH. Last year he proved to be a pretty good first baseman who will likely remain in that spot next season. The good news is the Red Sox have options. The sexiest move would be to sign a big free agent like Edwin Encarnacion, whom the Sox are expected to pursue. Other free-agent options include Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista.

The Sox could also try to fill that void internally by using a combination of players. Taking Sandoval out of the field is a plus, especially if he can starting hitting like he did in San Francisco again. There’s also enough depth via Chris Young, Holt and perhaps Shaw that a rotation is possible. Either way, someone not named David Ortiz will have to DH for the Sox next season.

5.) What do they do with their catchers?

The Red Sox had a revolving door at catcher for most of the season. It started with Blake Swihart as the Opening Day catcher, but he struggled and was turned into a left fielder before getting hurt. Then came Christian Vazquez, who was called up in mid April after missing all of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. He looked good early, but slumped mightily in the middle of the year. Sandy Leon was called up in July, and remained the starting catcher the rest of the way as he posted .293 TAv in 283 plate appearances. The Sox also had Ryan Hanigan, who spent the year as the dependable backup through all the slumps and injuries at the position, and Bryan Holaday, who basically served as Pomeranz’s personal catcher.

Hanigan has a team option for next season and Holaday is a free agent. The Red Sox will probably let them go, leaving them with three catchers vying for one starting job next season. Both Vazquez and Swihart are promising despite disappointing seasons. Leon got off to an impressive start, but his .211/.276/.242 slash line over the final 29 games leaves skepticism over the legitimacy of that run.

The Sox have no need to improve the catcher position. However, it’s unclear who’s starting, who’s sitting and who’s going to Pawtucket. Based on his achievements last season, Leon probably deserves the starting job. Vazquez, meanwhile, has plenty to prove. Swihart is the most interesting case. He’s without a doubt the most likely trade candidate of the three, and could be dangled as part of a major trade offer. It’s also unclear whether or not the Sox plan to keep him as a catcher or return him to the outfield.

***

I suppose the real first step for Dombrowski is finding a new general manager. Once that happens, it’s time to improve a roster that appears close to World Series contention. There aren’t quite as many issues to address this offseason as opposed to the last two, but this winter is an important one for a team as disappointing as the Sox were in the playoffs.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Rick Porcello and David Price were supposed to be the exceptions to those struggles. Instead, in the ALDS, they were the worst versions of themselves. Porcello gave up three home runs in one inning, including to the No. 9-hitting catcher with three regular-season homers in 2016. Price gave his critics every reason to continue doubting his ability to perform in big games. So yeah, the starting pitching was a nightmare, and could ultimately cost the Sox their season.

But starting pitching hasn’t been the team’s only problem. The Sox’s biggest strength – its lineup that boasted four All-Star starters and scored the most runs in the majors – has been virtually non-existent. They needed solo home runs from the likes of Brock Holt, Sandy Leon and Andrew Benintendi just to score four runs in Game 1. Then they were shut out and shut down offensively in Game 2. Everything they did well at the plate in the regular season – make solid contact, get timely hits and rely on production from their stars – has yet to be a strength two games into the playoffs. It’s an issue even good pitching couldn’t overcome.

As I wrote about in July, the Red Sox have been one of the hardest teams to strike out in the David Ortiz Era, and this season was no exception. The Sox owned the third-lowest offensive strikeout rate in the regular season (18.4 percent) and the highest contact rate (81.6 percent). The Sox have been a shell of that team thus far. They’ve struck out 22 times over their first ALDS 69 plate appearances. That’s a hearty 32 percent rate. Dustin Pedroia, who had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors at 10.5 percent, and Xander Bogaerts, who had the fourth-lowest rate on the team at 17.1 percent, have accounted for a majority of the Sox’s strikeouts with four apiece over the first two games. Jackie Bradley Jr.’s five combined strikeouts are less of a surprise, but alarming nonetheless.

Four runs over two games for an offense that averaged more than five runs per game is concerning, but the lack of scoring isn’t due to a lack of opportunities. The Red Sox put five runners in scoring position in Game 1 – a situation they hit an AL best .283 in during the regular season – but went 2-for-9 in such spots, turning those opportunities into one run. Game 2 didn’t present as many scoring opportunities thanks to Corey Kluber’s dominance, but the Sox still went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. That gives them a .143 average for the series with runners in scoring position – good for third worst among division series teams.

Perhaps the most frustrating part of the Sox’s offensive struggles is that their best players have been among their worst over the first two games. Mookie Betts, an MVP candidate with a .296 TAv in the regular season, has just one hit for the series. Bogaerts and Pedroia also have just one hit apiece. Ortiz, who defied Father Time throughout his final regular season with 38 homers and a .317 TAv and is arguably the best playoff hitter in team history, also has just one hit in eight at bats. The Red Sox’s best hitters, aside from Hanley Ramirez, aren’t creating any offense.

Fielding has also been an issue for the Red Sox. The same defense that was eighth in the majors in UZR (21) and fourth in defensive runs saved (48) has been less than stellar in the field. The Sox have only committed one error over the first two games – a grounder that went under the glove of Pedroia in Game 2 – but have failed to make a number of plays they normally make. A strong example came in the fifth inning of Game 1. The Red Sox trailed Cleveland 4-3 with no outs when Carlos Santana flied out to Benintendi in left. Benintendi was too late to notice Indians catcher Roberto Perez tagging from first to second for an advance that was easier than it should’ve been. Jason Kipnis drove in Perez with an RBI single for the eventual winning run. Game 2 wasn’t any better. Pedroia had his error, but Bogaerts and Holt each misplayed ground balls that allowed extra base runners and extra outs for an Indians offense that scored six runs.

The point is, nothing has gone well for the Red Sox through two games. Sure, Porcello and Price are a concern, especially if the Sox can extend the series after Monday’s Game 3. However, they can’t win if they’re not scoring. And good starting pitching is tough to come by when the fielders aren’t backing the pitchers up. If this series is going to turn around, it’ll take more than just three straight good starts for it to happen.

Photo by Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

10.) June 23 – Red Sox rally to beat White Sox in extras

Boston was facing a four-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox thanks to a rare poor outing by Rick Porcello, who allowed four runs and eight hits over 5.1 innings. Trailing 4-1 in the sixth, the Red Sox struck for four runs to take a 5-4 lead. Two walks and a hit batter loaded the bases, and consecutive hits from Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon tied the game. Marco Hernandez grounded into a fielder’s choice that scored Ramirez and put the Sox ahead.

But oh, that Red Sox bullpen. Tommy Layne surrendered a three-run homer to Jose Abreu and Chicago led 7-5. The Red Sox, however, rallied again. They scored in both the seventh and eighth to tie the game, then got a walkoff single from Xander Bogaerts to end it with an 8-7 Boston win.

9.) May 1 – Vazquez lifts Sox to sweep of Yankees

It’s easy to forget now, but the return of Christian Vazquez was a big deal at the beginning of the season. The belief was he’d give the starting rotation a boost. Instead he delivered with his bat, hitting a two-run home run in the bottom of the seventh to give the Sox an 8-7 win over the Yankees at Fenway Park for the series sweep.

The Red Sox had to make multiple comebacks in this one after David Price, who allowed six runs over seven innings, struggled early. Alex Rodriguez homered and doubled to give the Yankees leads of 3-1 and 6-4. But the Sox’s offense picked up the slack. Pedroia and Bogaerts had three hits apiece, Shaw hit a game-tying three-run home run in the fifth and Ramirez drove in a pair. Vazquez, of course, capped things off in the seventh.

8.) May 14 – Ortiz drives in game-tying and game-winning run vs. Astros

If there’s anything we’ve learned from the past 14 years, it’s that Ortiz loves the big moment. That was no different this season as Big Papi provided more of the clutch hits we know and love. Just take May 14’s 6-5 win over the Astros for example. Clay Buchholz allowed five runs through the first two innings to put the Sox behind 5-2. But Ortiz cut the deficit to 5-3 in the third with a solo home run.

Papi wasn’t done there. With the Red Sox down 5-4 with one on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Ortiz ripped an RBI triple to center off closer Luke Gregerson to score Bogaerts and send the game into extra innings. Ortiz ended the game in the 11th with a walkoff double to score Bogaerts.

7.) Sept. 18 – Hanley keeps mashing as Sox complete sweep of Yankees

Ramirez started this crucial four-game series against the Yankees with a bang (we’ll get to that later) and ended it in similar fashion as the Red Sox completed the four-game sweep of the Yankees with yet another comeback win.

The Sox fell behind 4-0 thanks to a poor outing from Drew Pomeranz, but Ramirez gave them life with his third home run of the series – a three-run shot off CC Sabathia to cut the New York lead to 4-3. Jackie Bradley Jr. tied the game with an RBI single in the sixth, and Ramirez put it away in the seventh with even more magic in the form of a solo home run that gave the Red Sox a 5-4 lead that stood.

6.) April 29 – Ortiz breaks Yankee hearts again

If you’re a Yankees fan, you should probably stop reading this now, because it doesn’t get better. Ortiz did what he does best to the Yankees – make their lives hell. This time it was a two-run homer off Dellin Betances in the eighth to give the Red Sox a 4-2 win.

Once again, the Sox had to come back to make this happen. They trailed New York 2-0 in the seventh before Bradley tied the game with a two-run double that ended Masahiro Tanaka’s otherwise dominant night. In the eighth, a one-out single from Bogaerts set up Ortiz for the winning blast.

5.) June 7 – Sox make statement with wild win in San Francisco

It’s easy to forget just how fun this game was. It was a west coast game on a weeknight in June that preceded numerous thrilling victories, but it certainly shouldn’t be left out. Porcello was decent, allowing three runs and striking out six over six innings. It was the bullpen, Bogaerts and Chris Young that ultimately got the job done.

This is one the Red Sox had to grind out to win. They took an early 2-0 lead thanks to a double by Young in the second and an infield single from Bogaerts in the third. The Giants responded with a Jarrett Parker home run in the third and two runs in the fourth to go up 3-2. The Sox, however, came back in the weirdest of ways in the seventh. It started with a one-out walk by Bradley, who stole second and reached third on a throwing error. Young followed with a walk of his own. Ortiz grounded into what looked like an inning-ending double play, but Young dropped to the dirt to avoid the Brandon Crawford tag and the tying run scored.

That sent the game to extra innings. But that didn’t last long. Bogaerts hit a two-run single to center in the top of the 10th and Craig Kimbrel closed it out in the bottom half for the 5-3 win.

4.) Sept. 11 – Sox prevail in pivotal back-and-forth game in Toronto

The Red Sox were neck-and-neck with the Blue Jays in the AL East entering this mid-September series. After splitting the first two games, the finale had plenty of division implications. The Sox started strong as a three-run home run by Bradley put them up 4-1 in the second, but leads changed in a hurry thanks to Clay Buchholz’s latest implosion.

Buchholz loaded the bases with a single and two walks in the third. He then walked Josh Donaldson to score a run and surrendered a grand slam to Troy Tulowitzki to put Toronto up 6-4. The Red Sox tied it in the fourth on a two-run single by Bogaerts, but Edwin Encarnacion’s two-run homer in the bottom half gave the Blue Jays an 8-6 advantage. The Sox responded again. This time it took a Ramirez homer in the fifth to cut it to 8-7 and a three-run bomb by Ortiz to give the Red Sox a lead they wouldn’t relinquish in the eventual 11-8 win.

3.) June 24 – Red Sox rally past Rangers with four-run ninth

Recent history hasn’t been kind to the Red Sox against the Rangers. This game looked like much of the same after they fell behind 6-0 after a dreadful outing from Price. The Sox got to within 6-2, and then 7-4 on a three-run home run by Bradley in the sixth. But that was as close as they’d get until the ninth inning.

Bradley led off the ninth with a walk, but a strikeout and pop out gave the Red Sox two quick outs. That was when the magic happened. Leon hit a pinch hit double to score Bradley and Betts followed with a two-run homer to tie the game at 7-7. Pedroia walked, reached third on a single by Bogaerts and scored on a wild pitch to give the Sox a thrilling 8-7 win.

2.) July 31 – Pedroia leads comeback victory in Anaheim

This was one of those games that made this team so fun to watch. The Red Sox were shut down for most of the game by Angels starter Tyler Skaggs and a combination of relievers, and trailed 3-0 in the top of the ninth. Then the Sox’s bats finally came alive against Huston Street. The Red Sox led off the inning with a Bradley walk and Aaron Hill single before Ryan Hanigan and Brock Holt struck out to put the Sox on the brink of defeat.

Betts singled to score Bradley. Pedroia, down to his last strike, hit a mammoth three-run home run to center to put the Red Sox ahead. Bogaerts followed with a solo homer and the Sox held on for the 5-3 win.

1.) Sept. 15 – Hanley, man

Was there ever a question which game would top the list? This was by far the biggest win of the year. The Red Sox were clinging to a one-run lead in the division after dropping two of three to the Orioles, and a bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez against the Yankees had the Sox heading for a third straight loss. An improbable ninth-inning comeback didn’t just give the Red Sox a 7-5 win, it kicked off an 11-game winning streak that solidified the AL East title.

The Sox fell behind 4-0 thanks to a bad start by Rodriguez, then 5-1 with Heath Hembree in the game in the fourth. The comeback really began in the eighth when Ortiz homered to cut the deficit to 5-2. Things almost got worse for Boston in the top of the ninth when Joe Kelly worked himself into a bases loaded, one-out jam. But he got himself out of it with a strikeout and a line out.

Joe Girardi was determined to give Betances the night off. That was short lived as Young was hit by a pitch with one out, putting the tying run on deck. Pedroia followed with a walk. A base running gaffe by Young on a fielder’s choice by Bogaerts put runners on first and second with two outs for Ortiz. Big Papi singled home a run to make it 5-3. Betts followed with a single of his own to make it 5-4. Then Ramirez took the biggest swing of the Sox’s season, belting a fastball into the center field seats for the walkoff win.

Here’s to hoping we add a new topper to this list sometime in October.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

The rotation has faced criticism all season. Heck, all eyes were on pitching before the year even started. Early struggles from the likes of David Price and Buchholz only heightened the scrutiny as the rotation soon became one of the worst in baseball. But the emergence and Porcello and Steven Wright spared the Sox from ever reaching the lows of last season. It also helped top have the best offense in the majors backing them. However, the rotation eventually rounded to form. Wright’s season effectively ended on the base paths, but Price looked like himself, Rodriguez returned to health, the Good Buchholz showed up, Rick Porcello continued to dominate and Pomeranz added much-needed depth. Suddenly, the Sox had a rotation good enough to complement the offense in the race for the division crown.

The Red Sox enter the season’s final week with a stronger rotation than anyone could’ve imagined. Despite its faults, the Sox’s rotation ranks 11th in starter’s ERA (4.23) and is tied for seventh in starter’s DRA (4.04). Four of their five starters have K/9s of seven or better and all are walking less than four batters per nine innings. This rotation has proven itself viable enough to – coupled with a major-league best offense – lead a deep playoff run. 

The Red Sox begin that quest for another World Series title in just over a week, likely beginning with Porcello in Game 1 of the division series. He will presumably be followed by Price, Rodriguez and Buchholz. That’s a solid rotation. But how does it stack up with the other recent Sox championship rotations? Here’s what the numbers say about this year’s group.

Porcello was the only of those four who was consistent throughout the season. Advanced statistics were kind to Price all year, but his April and May performances were about as bad as he’s ever been. But this rotation wasn’t determined by season-long performance. This group is being assembled mostly due to its performance over the last couple months of the season, including here in September. The Red Sox’s September ERAs are as follows: Porcello – 2.41; Price – 3.60; Rodriguez – 3.18; and Buchholz – 3.97. That’s pretty good. Let’s hope it’s indicative of the type of rotation the Sox will have in October as well.

As for the championship seasons:

2004

The 2004 rotation had the best starter’s DRA in the majors (3.82) and the 12th-ranked starter’s ERA (4.31). This was a team with a pair of aces in the latter half of their careers in Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, but clearly had enough left to have quality seasons. The Sox got about what they expected from each of these four starters in the regular season. Most importantly, those players were consistent for most of the regular season. Those performances carried into the playoffs as well, although Arroyo was moved to the bullpen while Lowe started the clinchers in both the ALCS and World Series.

2007

The 2007 Red Sox got an outstanding regular season (and postseason) from Josh Beckett in his second year with the club. Schilling was on his last leg, but a viable enough No. 2 starter, and Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid debut season. Wakefield was, well, Wakefield. The Sox didn’t quite have the one-two punch at the top of the rotation they had in 2004, but it was more balanced from top to bottom, owning the third-best start’s DRA (4.11) and fourth-best starter’s ERA (4.21) What set this team apart from 2004 or 2016 was Beckett, who had arguably the best Red Sox season for a pitcher since Martinez’s 2002 campaign. That applies to October too, as Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA in four playoff starts. Jon Lester finished the run in the postseason rotation, taking Wakefield’s spot and winning the Game 4 World Series clincher in Colorado.

2013

The 2016 rotation probably best compares to this one. The 2013 team’s playoff rotation wasn’t solidified until the end of the season, primarily due to Buchholz missing significant time on the disabled list and the trade-deadline acquisition of Jake Peavy. Overall, they finished with the sixth-best starter’s DRA (3.48) and 11th-best starter’s ERA (3.84). John Lackey’s season was very much like Porcello’s this season. Both starters had bad starts to their Boston tenures (although Lackey’s was more prolonged), and bounced back in a big way to help lead the Red Sox to the playoffs. When he did pitch, Buchholz put up All-Star caliber numbers, and Peavy was solid in 10 starts. The playoffs wound up being all Lester and Lackey as Buchholz and Peavy struggled for most of the title run. However, it proved to be enough. Lester posted a 1.56 playoff ERA while Lackey sported a 2.77 mark, accounting for seven playoff wins while the offense and bullpen carried the team from there.

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The 2016 Red Sox’s starting rotation doesn’t have the predictability of past teams outside of Porcello and Price, but it has the potential to be just as good as the recent championship teams in the playoffs. This rotation has certainly had its lows, but the last two months have shown us that it is championship-caliber, especially when you look at the rotations of those past teams. Price was acquired to be the type of pitcher Beckett and Schilling were brought in to be. Porcello’s comeback story seems written for him to finish the year on top. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s offense is good enough to win if Rodriguez and Buchholz are simply good, although both have shown flashes of greatness of late. There’s no telling what the Red Sox will get from this foursome in the playoffs, but there’s the potential for it to make its own history.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox have been considered a front-running team throughout the season. Their major league-leading offense has propelled them to a number of blowout wins, but they’re also 17-22 in one-run games entering Sunday’s action. Pitchers’ duels, meanwhile, still leave me uneasy. The Sox have recently shown a flair for the dramatic, and it’s coming at the most appropriate time. One of the beautiful things about baseball is its lack of a clock. The game is truly never over until the final out is made. And Boston is making the most of those outs.

Comeback wins have been the norm of late. That was most evident in the team’s matchups with the Blue Jays and Yankees. The Sox rallied multiple times on Sunday, Sept. 11, to take the rubber match of their three-game set in Toronto, highlighted by David Ortiz’s go-ahead three-run blast in the sixth inning.

Thursday’s win was impossible to forget. The Red Sox trailed the Yankees 5-1 in the eighth, then 5-2 with two outs in the ninth before collecting three straight hits and winning on Hanley Ramirez’s mammoth walk-off home run off a fastball from Dellin Betances. It was arguably the biggest win of the season.

Saturday’s win was a little less dramatic, but equally exciting and certainly important. The Red Sox overcame a pair of three-run deficits thanks to a three-run, three-hit, three-RBI day from Xander Bogaerts, three hits from Ramirez and another RBI from Ortiz.

The Red Sox’s offense, one might say, has been clutch. They’re hitting a major-league best .289 with runners in scoring position this season, and also lead the way with a .264 average with runners in scoring position with two outs. That success has been on display in their recent comebacks. The Sox, however, haven’t necessarily looked clutch throughout many points of the season. There were stretches throughout July and August when the offense was sputtering, not the starting pitching or even the bullpen. Some of that was chalked up to a hot team going cold, or the late-season schedule catching up to them.

You also can’t forget the Red Sox’s youth and inexperience. Sure, Mookie Betts is having an MVP-caliber season, but Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have struggled since August, Travis Shaw might be the team’s worst hitter and Andrew Benintendi still only has 23 major-league games under his belt. Some of those deficiencies are still apparent. But fortunately for the Red Sox, there’s still firepower left in the bats of Ortiz, Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia. Those veterans are the guys leading the comeback victories. Their September runs have Boston in this position.

Let’s start with Ortiz. He’s slashing .364/.434/.682 in September, bringing his true average up to a team-high .328 for the year. He’s homered three times and driven in 14 runs. No two blasts were bigger than the one in Toronto eight days ago, and Thursday’s solo homer in the eighth before the ninth-inning rally.

Ramirez, meanwhile, is playing the best he has since signing with the Sox last season. His two home runs Sunday night give him nine for the month and owns a .356/.415/.746 slash line. Many of those hits this month have come in key situations.  

Then there’s Pedroia. His season has been MVP-caliber as well and he’s been by far Boston’s best hitter over the past two months, slashing .406/.440/.475 in August and .359/.391/.453 thus far in September. The latter two have been especially easy to forget this season thanks to Ortiz’s retirement tour and the continued progression of the Red Sox’s young players, but they’ve made their presence felt at the most pivotal time of year.

If we’re going to discuss clutch, I’d be foolish be leave out the bullpen. On Sept. 2, Matt Kory reminded us all of just how terrible the bullpen has been for most of the season, especially in high-leverage situations. The Sox’s pen has since turned a corner, and it’s what has made these dramatic wins possible. Koji Uehara has yet to allow a run since his return from the disabled list, looking more like his former self. Matt Barnes has surrendered just four hits since Aug. 30, and is starting to be leaned on in later innings. Brad Ziegler has given up a single unearned run in his last 11.1 innings. And as I wrote last week, Joe Kelly’s stuff out of the bullpen has been, well, great. I never thought I’d say this a month ago, but this bullpen is becoming reliable.

These are good times for the Red Sox. The drama of the tight division race and the comeback victories have only amped up the excitement. The Sox look like a clutch team. Their offense with runners in scoring position, veteran leadership and bullpen performances make it easy to believe. A couple weeks ago I told a friend I would be happy with the Sox simply making the playoffs. Their recent play has me wanting even more out of this team. If all goes the way it has been lately, that won’t be too much to ask.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Perhaps that answer has finally arrived, and in a way you may or may not have expected. The turn to September also led to the expansion of rosters, which has led to opportunity for those shunned by the Red Sox for most of the season. One of those players has been Joe Kelly. Yes, he of the Great Stuff. Kelly’s Red Sox tenure has been bad, but the start of this season was especially forgettable. He posted an 8.46 ERA in six major-league starts. Those struggles coupled with injury forced Kelly down to Triple-A, and eventually the bullpen. That transition to relief pitching may have been the best thing that could’ve happened to the Red Sox, and to Kelly’s season.

Kelly to the bullpen has been a proposition made by talking heads for the past two years. He split time as a starter and reliever with the Cardinals in both 2012 and 2013, and never established a consistent spot in the rotation in his two-plus years in Boston. Joe Kelly the reliever is finally becoming a reality at the end of 2016. It started in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.51 FIP and 11.8 K/9, allowing just one home run in 17 appearances – 13 of which came out of the bullpen. Now that success is translating to the big leagues. The right-hander owns a 1.17 ERA in seven appearances since making his 2016 relief debut on July 25, tossing 7.2 innings in which he’s struck out eight and walked just three. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last six appearances. It’s easy to forget about that short three-outing stint in July. However, what he’s done in the brief time since his Sept. 2 call-up should leave fans hopeful.

Kelly has made just four appearances since his latest major-league return. They’ve been low-leverage situations, but they’ve been very good. Good enough that he may see bigger situations sooner rather than later. He’s tossed four scoreless innings, allowed three baserunners and struck out seven, making a case to take more of the innings once consumed by the likes of Junichi Tazawa, Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross. Meanwhile, he’s given the Red Sox more depth and dependability out of the bullpen.

This success isn’t by accident. Perhaps this is the role made for Kelly. As a starter, Kelly employed a balanced five-pitch mix that included a sinker and a changeup. He has since scrapped the sinker and change from his arsenal, and relied heavily on his four-seamer while occasionally mixing his slider and curve to put hitters away. He’s become what some may call a power pitcher, throwing upper-90s fastballs and racking up strikeouts.

Take Kelly’s Sept. 5 appearance against the Padres, for example. He needed just 15 pitches to get through three San Diego hitters. He threw 12 four-seamers and 11 strikes, while getting three whiffs and a pair of strikeouts. According to Pitch f/x, Kelly’s fastball averaged 99.7 mph, reaching a maximum of 101. Meanwhile, his secondary pitches were in the mid-to-upper 80s. Here’s what his performance looked like visually.

What the chart above also shows is an improvement in Kelly’s location. He threw strikes at a 73 percent rate in this appearance, and kept the ball on the corners of the zone. Compare that to what he did in his May 27 start in Toronto and the difference is clear. Kelly threw strikes at just a 54 percent rate that day, allowing nine hits and walking three over 4.2 innings. He threw his sinker 63 times with only 34 for strikes. The low strike rate forced him to throw a combined 71 pitches between innings two through four. He was pulled in the fifth at 94 pitches. When he did throw strikes, he left pitches in the middle of the zone that went for hits.

Kelly’s strike-throwing ability is more in the middle of those two appearances, as his strike percentage sits at 61 percent in his major-league relief appearances this season. But Kelly still looks like he may have transformed into the pitcher we all hoped he could be, just in the form of a reliever. His velocity is up, and he’s using it to pick up strikeouts. Meanwhile, his command has improved drastically. This turnaround makes him a candidate for a solidified late-innings role out of the bullpen. Throw Kelly in with Ziegler and Uehara, and the Red Sox may just have enough depth leading to Kimbrel to feel good about their bullpen down the stretch.

That, of course, is contingent on Kelly remaining consistent, which is something he hasn’t done well for much of his Red Sox tenure. He’s shown flashes of excellence at multiple points throughout the past two seasons. Last year, he finished the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final eight starts. Then he was shelled in his 2016 debut in a start against the Blue Jays. He returned from injury on May 21 and threw seven shutout innings. He followed that up with a pair of clunkers and didn’t see the major leagues again until July. Things are once again good with Kelly, and the Red Sox should ride that wave for all its worth to improve their bullpen. However, there’s reason to believe Kelly’s success can be sustained at least for the rest of this season. He’s been pitching well out of the bullpen since the middle of the season – albeit in the minor leagues – and his fastball, both in terms of location and velocity, has been consistently good. Perhaps this was the change Kelly needed. It’s certainly the one the Red Sox needed.

Photo by Kelley L. Cox/USA Today Sports Images

Sound familiar? It’s a script the Red Sox have followed all too consistently lately. That trend continued on Tuesday night as they suffered a 4-3 loss to the Rays at Fenway Park. Drew Pomeranz took a 3-1 lead in the seventh, but for the second straight outing that inning proved one too many as he gave up a two-out, two-run home run to No. 9 hitter Luke Maile to tie the game at 3-3. Clay Buchholz then gave up the go-ahead home run to Evan Longoria in the eighth to put Tampa Bay away for good.

Yup, it was another one of those nights.

Top Play (WPA): Maile’s home run was just his second of the season, but it proved to be the game’s biggest moment as he drove a 1-2 curve from Pomeranz over the left field wall to tie the game (+.282). It was frustrating to watch Pomeranz make a great start look average in the seventh inning for the second straight start. The lefty had allowed just one run on three hits to that point, earning himself the chance to go back out in the seventh. He gave up a leadoff single to Tim Beckham, but then got the next two batters out before serving up the home run.

It didn’t get any better from there. Buchholz came on in the eighth and was once again home run bait, surrendering a solo home run to Longoria (+.265) to break the tie.

Bottom Play (WPA): The game’s bottom three plays all happened to be the bottom three plays in the last of the ninth inning in reverse order, so let’s just break down what happened.

Mookie Betts led off the inning with a ground out to second (-.092), then Hanley Ramirez followed with a single to right for his third hit of the night. Travis Shaw struck out for the fourth time of the night for the second out of the inning (-.115). The Red Sox, however got some life as Ramirez reached second on a passed ball and Chris Young followed with a walk, giving Sandy Leon a chance to tie or win the game.

Leon did neither. Instead, he struck out on three pitches on Alex Colome to end the game (-.176).

Key Moment: The Red Sox scored twice in the sixth inning to take a 3-1 lead, but given the final score you can’t help but wonder what could have been offensively. Dustin Pedroia drew a one-out walk and Xander Bogaerts doubled for his 500th career hit, putting two on and one out for David Ortiz. Ortiz, however, was robbed of a hit one his liner to right thanks to a diving catch by Steven Souza and instead settled for a sacrifice fly.

The Sox added an extra run just one batter later on a short pop by Ramirez that dropped in the outfield grass. But one can’t help but think they could’ve been capable of more had Ortiz’s fly landed for a hit.

Trend to Watch: Just two days ago I wrote about Pomeranz’s trouble with high pitch counts despite the marked improvements in several other areas since joining the Red Sox. That trend continued on Tuesday. Pomeranz needed 39 pitches to get through the first two innings and 54 to get through the first three. By the time he went out for the seventh he was already at 91, which is about as many quality pitches you’re going to get from Pomeranz per start. It will be worth seeing how much shorter Pomeranz’s leash is over the next couple starts after giving up runs in the seventh for the past two games.

Pedroia, who returned to the lineup on Tuesday after missing the last two games on bereavement leave, extended his hitting streak to seven games with a single on a curveball that was low and well outside the strike zone. The second baseman is in the midst of a ridiculous run in which he’s hit .571 over his last seven games, including a short stretch in which he went 11-for-11. Pedroia’s .284 TAv entering Tuesday’s game was the highest it’s been since 2013, while his .320/.383/.457 slash line is on par with his MVP season in 2008.

Coming Next: The series and the Red Sox’s brief homestand ends Wednesday night with Steven Wright facing lefty Drew Smyly. This will be Wright’s second start since returning from the disabled list. The knuckleballer had an ugly first start back on Friday against the Royals, allowing five runs, two home runs and three walks over six innings. Smyly, meanwhile, holds a decent 3.03 ERA in August, but dominated the Sox in his lone meeting with the team this season on April 19, tossing eight shutout innings and walking 11.

Despite the recent success, the rotation has been a major flaw throughout the year. However, the only outside addition came in the form of Drew Pomeranz, who was acquired from the Padres for top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza. The deal drew mixed reactions from the locals (I’m still not sure how I feel about it). Pomeranz was having a great year to that point, but he was a former reliever in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Who knew how that would translate to the AL East, especially at the cost of a player as hyped as Espinoza?

The backlash grew louder as Pomeranz struggled over his first four starts with the Red Sox. He struggled with his location, throwing strikes just 60 percent of the time and walking 13 percent of batters faced. That deficiency drove up his pitch count and made it difficult to pitch deep into games. His numbers weren’t very good, either, as he posted a 6.20 ERA over that span, and the Red Sox were 2-2 in the first four games he started. It was an ugly introduction for Pomeranz, especially on a staff already littered with inadequacy and unreliability in its rotation thus far.

Thankfully, the trade looks drastically better now than it did a month ago. Pomeranz has a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts, putting him third among Red Sox starters over that span. He’s getting more strikeouts – as evidenced by his 11-strikeout performance on Thursday in Tampa Bay – and fewer walks. Suddenly, he looks like the player the Red Sox were hoping they acquired last month. And he’s done it consistently over this span.

The reason for this turnaround is more basic than you may think. There was no mechanical flaw spotted by Dustin Pedroia (that we know of). His pitch arsenal hasn’t been overhauled.. It’s simply been location. Pomeranz has thrown strikes at a 68 percent rate over his last four starts. Because of that, he’s more successfully averted trouble, worked deeper into games and seen his strikeout numbers improve. Let’s go back to his Aug. 15 start against the Indians, for example. This was arguably his best performance with the Red Sox. He allowed two runs on five hits over 7.2 innings – his deepest outing of the season – striking out six and walking just two. The reason he was so successful? He only needed 28 pitches to get through the first three innings. His strike rate was at 60 percent or better in all but one inning. Location was key.

That was by far his best performance numbers-wise, but perhaps his most efficient start came Aug. 20 against the Tigers. Pomeranz lasted just five innings, but that’s because the rain cut his night short. The lefty needed just 51 pitches to get through the first five innings. He threw 39 strikes and induced eight ground balls. His location was better than it has been since joining the Red Sox.

The problem, however, is that Pomeranz has struggled to do that consistently this season, even before being traded to the Red Sox. Over 25 starts, Pomeranz has lasted just 146.1 innings. That’s an average of just under six innings per start. That’s not surprising from a converted reliever, but that’s problematic for a player who is likely to be in the postseason rotation for a team with as decimated and unreliable of a bullpen as the Red Sox’s.

Take Thursday’s start against the Rays. There was plenty to like about it. Pomeranz allowed just two runs and recorded a season-high 11 strikeouts, but lasted just six-plus innings. He threw strikes at a 69 percent rate, but still needed 93 pitches to get through the first six innings alone and 64 to get through the first four. Pomeranz was done in by some trouble to start the seventh. It’s safe to assume part of the reason for that is because the high pitch count caught up to him.

Pomeranz’s high pitch counts and inability to go deep into games is a concern, especially as the postseason nears. But there’s still plenty to be encouraged by thanks to his increase in strike percentage and overall strikeouts in recent starts. Perhaps that could result in more starts like the ones against the Indians and Tigers and less like his debut against the Giants in which he gave up five runs and threw 80 pitches over three innings. That means he needs to continue to use his pitches the way he has lately. Pomeranz has stuck to a heavy fastball-curve mix with the occasional cutter mixed in. He’s also seen more swings and misses on those pitches as his whiff rate has increased significantly over the last month alone. (It’s worth noting that he’s only thrown his changeup four times this month, according to Brooks Baseball.)

Overall, Pomeranz has become a great addition for the Red Sox – better than most people may realize. A 2.90 DRA and 9.34 K/9 is solid for a pitcher who is at best the team’s No. 3 starter. However, there is still more to be desired for a team with a poor bullpen and postseason aspirations. There is still the need for fewer pitches, more innings and greater efficiency. There are signs that point to that as the next step in Pomeranz’s turnaround. But then again maybe he’s at best a six-inning guy. Either way, I’ll take that over another spot start from Henry Owens.

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

Then there’s Travis Shaw. As a 26-year-old less than a year removed from his major-league debut, Shaw was never part of that franchise-future discussion. That started to change when he beat out Pablo Sandoval for the starting job at third base in spring training and got off to a hot start at the plate. Shaw slashed .327/.396/.565 over the first 40 games of the season and added six home runs. It was enough to put him in the early All-Star discussion.

That discussion has since flipped again. Shaw has slashed .207/.273/.368 with eight home runs in the games that have followed, bringing his true average down to .261 for the season. That number is good for 11th on the Red Sox if you include Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young. That makes him the worst-hitting everyday player on the team. He also has the 10th-worst slugging percentage (.442) among AL third basemen. His numbers have been progressively worse with each month, and August has been no exception as he’s slashed .156/.255/.311 and has driven in a whopping four runs over 17 games. Fortunately for Shaw and the Red Sox, the rest of the lineup has awoken and helped pick up that slack.

It’s not as if Shaw has suddenly become a bad player. He’s simply come back to earth after a scorching start to the season. Overall, he’s been the player we thought he was – an average hitter with a little bit of power. For all of Shaw’s faults, especially of late, he is a power-hitting threat in the bottom of the lineup that not a lot of teams have, even if his 14 home runs are a little underwhelming given the way he started out the year.

That power trip has come back to bite him, however. Shaw may be swinging for the fences, but he’s missing a heck of a lot more. His strikeout rate sits at 24.8 percent and he’s been whiffing more with each month. He hasn’t quite had the power to compensate for it either as his line drive and fly ball rates have dipped in August. The visuals below helped illustrate the latter two points.

Then there’s the nightmare he’s been against lefties. He’s slashing .196/.242/.391 against southpaws this season, making him enough of a liability that he’s often left out of the lineup in favor of Aaron Hill with a left-handed starter on the mound.

Now that I’ve spent the last few paragraphs telling you how Shaw has sucked, let me offer you a little perspective. On Aug. 22, 2015, Sandoval was the Red Sox’s starting third baseman. He hit second in the lineup that day. The Sox lost to the Royals and were on their way to a last-place finish. Sandoval, as we all know, had an awful debut season with the Red Sox. He was a $95 million man with a .245/.292/.366 slash line and was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball, posting a -11 DRS and -21.9 UZR/150. Then he showed up to spring training in March overweight and careless enough to make us all sympathize with Hanley Ramirez. Shaw has been a far cry from that mess.

The fact that Shaw is the Red Sox’s worst everyday player right now tells you just how far this team has come in the last year. If this were last year, Shaw’s TAv would put him right in the middle of the pack with the rest of the team. That’s not bad for a bottom-of-the-order third baseman. Think about it. Sandoval was the starting third baseman and batting in the middle of the order a year ago. Shaw has been a drastic improvement in all categories.

If you know me, I like to look in hindsight. It’s a fun way to judge myself and others, and occasionally (very, very, very occasionally) feel like I knew what I was talking about. In hindsight, the Red Sox knew what they were doing when they chose Shaw as the Opening Day starting third baseman over Sandoval. They replaced a known player who was downright terrible a year ago for someone who is an ok hitter and offers a little bit of versatility. It certainly didn’t turn into a make-or-break move, but the results speak for themselves. Shaw may not be anything special, but his performance this season is something to feel pretty good about given where the Red Sox were at third base a year ago. It’s thoughts like this that make you realize things aren’t so bad for the Red Sox right now.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

This week, however, might be an exception for the Red Sox.

The Sox are coming off a 4-2 homestand rectified by a sweep of the Diamondbacks and clinging to the second Wild Card spot with the Tigers, Mariners and Astros all breathing down their necks. Their rotation has gone from dreadful to mostly competent. The offense has gone from historically elite to pretty good (with the exception of Sunday’s blowout win). Their bullpen, well, see the recap of Wednesday’s game for more on that disaster. The Red Sox haven’t consistently looked like a playoff-caliber team since mid July, but even that success was minimal. One might argue they haven’t played like a contender since May.

That brings us to this week. This is the biggest week of the season thus far; the one we might look back on Oct. 1 and view as the make-or-break point of the summer. The optimist would view this as an opportunity. A good showing and the Sox can solidify their spot in the Wild Card. That means a chance to not only play in the single-elimination postseason round but perhaps host it.

The pessimist would view this as the beginning of the end for the 2016 Red Sox. Combine the Sox’s recent performance with the quality of opponents over an 11-game road trip, and you have a team that could spoil their playoff chances in seven days.

Let’s instead look at this week from a more moderate, realistic viewpoint. It starts with a makeup game in Cleveland against the Indians Monday afternoon, then it’s off to Baltimore, which owns the top Wild Card spot, for a pair of games and then Detroit for a massive four-game showdown against the Tigers. The Red Sox will still have another seven games with the O’s later this season, but this is the final matchup with the Tigers and the club’s last series against a contending team until Sept. 9.

How the playoff picture looks come Sunday may tell us what to expect come October.

The Sox have an ideal matchup against the Indians, who send Josh Tomlin to the mound against Drew Pomeranz. As average as Pomeranz has been since the trade to Boston, Tomlin has been a disaster, allowing seven earned runs in each of his last two outings. The Sox are 3-2 against the Indians this season.

There’s some good news and bad news pertaining the rest of the week. The numbers show the Red Sox have been better than the Tigers and Orioles throughout the season, and both teams have struggled of late. However, the Sox haven’t fared well against either opponent this year.

The Orioles surrendered their AL East lead to the Blue Jays last week and have dropped six of their last 10 contests. Baltimore has sat in first place for most of the season, but with the third-best run differential in the division, some of that may have been dumb luck. In other words, Baltimore hasn’t been as good as its record suggests. Just look at how their numbers compare to the Red Sox, who’ve been treading water for the bulk of two and a half months now.

Baltimore’s success has come behind its power and bullpen. One could argue the Red Sox are just as good, if not better, than the O’s despite what the standings show. However, Baltimore has had the better of the matchups, going 6-4 against the Sox this season. The Orioles also send their No. 1, Chris Tillman, in the series finale to take on the ever-unpredictable David Price. Tillman allowed one run over seven innings in his lone start against the Red Sox on June 14 and has had arguably his strongest season since his All-Star campaign in 2013. Tuesday’s starter, Yovani Gallardo, struggled in his lone start against the Red Sox in April but has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings.

Those two games are important, but the four games in Detroit are even bigger. The Red Sox were swept in their lone meeting against the Tigers two weeks ago, but Detroit was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak that propelled them into the Wild Card race at the time.

Are the Tigers really a playoff team, or an average team in the thick of it thanks to one hot streak? Here’s what the numbers say:

Statistically speaking, there’s little debate that the Red Sox are better than the Tigers, who suffered a five-game losing streak last week, but, as we learned recently against the Yankees, that says little about what to expect in this series. Regardless, this is a big one. A strong showing could separate the Sox from the Tigers, and a poor showing could do the opposite, harming Boston’s postseason chances. Or they could split the series and nothing will really change.

Anyway, here’s what we can expect. Thursday’s series opener ultimately hinges on what the Red Sox can squeeze out of Clay Buchholz for the second straight outing, as he starts in place of the injured Steven Wright. While Buchholz gave Boston enough to nab a win Saturday against the D-backs, it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll perform in Detroit.

The most intriguing matchup of the series comes Friday between Rick Porcello and Michael Fulmer. Porcello has been a legitimate No. 1 for the Sox this season, while Fulmer’s rookie campain has been nothing short of impressive, with the right-hander posting a 3.17 DRA in 2016. Both pitchers use a primarily four-seamer/sinker mix that’s dependent on weak contact rather than blowing hitters away. Perhaps that means a nice, fast-paced game as well.

From there it’s Pomeranz and Daniel Norris, who has made just four starts this season, in a battle of mediocre pitchers. Then there’s the finale between Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Verlander. Rodriguez allowed one run over seven innings against the Yankees last week, looking more like the pitcher Sox fans fell in love with last season. Meanwhile, Verlander has been in vintage form of late with a 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts.

Ultimately, this week won’t determine where the Red Sox wind up at the end of the season, but it should give us a good idea of what to expect the rest of the way. They’re capable of success against both teams, but past matchups and recent performance tells us that may not happen. But this is the story of the 2016 Red Sox, who have ridden a roller coaster of promise and disappointment again and again.

If we’re being realistic, there’s nothing wrong with settling for a .500 week, or 4-3 if you want to include the Indians game. That should keep the Red Sox in a playoff spot, or at least within a game of it, before a stretch that includes two series against the Rays and one against both the A’s and Padres. But those games won’t tell us about this team quite like this week’s. This is a stretch where the Red Sox could prove themselves worthy of our trust, and worthy of true playoff consideration once we reach the middle of September.

Photo by Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports Images