Boston » Addison Reed

The Bridge To The Ninth

Matthew Kory — Tue, 20 Mar 2018 13:00:56 +0000

As the Red Sox head into the 2018 season, all seems right with their world. The offseason yielded the best hitter on the market and a good hitting middle infielder, and both came on team-friendly deals. The team’s young players seem ready to blossom under the tutelage of the team’s new and youthful coaching staff. Even the currently and recently injured starting pitchers look ready to make an impact in the near future. If there’s one spot on the team that may not inspire the happy bouncies, though, it’s the back end of the bullpen. No, not the very back end. That should be quite fine under the watchful eye and crushing right arm of Craig Kimbrel. But after him, things get kind of fuzzy. Who exactly are the Red Sox looking at to take on the setup gig?

Perhaps some quick history is in order. The first trade Dave Dombrowski made after taking over the team from Ben Cherington in August of 2015 was to acquire Kimbrel to anchor the bullpen. And that worked. But after Kimbrel? The ’15 Red Sox bullpen was a bit of a hodgepodge. To fix that, Dombrowski dealt for Carson Smith from the Mariners. Smith was coming off a fantastic season in Seattle, and was slated to be the primary setup man in Boston in 2016. He looked great, too, for 6.2 innings before he needed Tommy John surgery. Then last year, with Smith out of action, the Red Sox needed to solve that same problem again. Dombrowski again hit the trade market (because it worked so well the first time) and got Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. Thornburg didn’t even make it as far as Smith’s 6.2 inning before needing surgery to relieve Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. That necessitated missing the entire 2017 season. Because they were without Smith and Thornburg, the Red Sox traded for Addison Reed during the season, but he became a free agent after the season ended and signed with the Twins.

Somehow Dombrowski managed to avoid dealing for another soon-to-be-hurt reliever this past offseason, which brings us to the present day. It seems we’re back where we started, but in fact, we’re not, because Smith is now healthy and throwing spring training innings. To be precise, he has nine strikeouts, two walks, and two runs allowed in six spring innings. Thornburg threw off a mound for the first time almost three weeks ago, but I can’t find any updates beyond that. Recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is no sure thing, far less successful on average than Tommy John surgery, which has become somewhat rote in the baseball world.

It says here the Red Sox are planning on handing over the eighth inning to Smith, but there should be some caution exercised as Smith is coming off a major injury. That’s not to say he can’t handle an eighth inning reliever’s workload. There are numerous pitchers who, once they’ve returned from Tommy John, have immediately slotted back into their previous workloads. Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn come to mind, as does reliever Greg Holland. The future may be bright for Mr. Smith when it comes to health, but pitchers returning from Tommy John often don’t have full command for up to a year post-surgery. Maybe Smith will be fine, but there is at least some question about it, and Thornburg is a complete question mark given his current health (?) and the track record of players recovering from similar procedures (what’s now left of Matt Harvey springs to mind).

Beyond Smith and Thornburg, the Red Sox have a lot of that same smorgasbord of hard throwing somewhat erratic relievers they had back in 2016 and since. Last season it worked. Boston’s bullpen ranked fourth in baseball by FanGraphs WAR. That’s not the perfect measurement to rate relievers, but the point is clear: Boston had an effective bullpen in 2017. But! Half of that WAR came from Craig Kimbrel. The rest was split between a ton of mediocre relievers. Boston had 16 relievers throw six or more innings for them last season, and 11 threw 17 or more. That’s partially just the nature of relievers nowadays, but it’s also because the team struggled to find consistency in the late innings outside of Kimbrel.

This year promises more of the same on that front, as Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly will bring their fast fastballs and extremely walky walk rates to the eighth inning party. Barnes was a frequent and often ill-timed victim of the long ball last year. while Kelly probably should’ve been victimized more than he was. Both players could improve — they are relievers after all — but barring that, there likely needs to be some sheltering from specific matchups and bad platoon splits. Doing that limits their availability, and thus their overall value to the team. Brandon Workman merits a mention as well. He’s cut from the Matt Barnes cloth, but minus the strikeouts, which isn’t ideal for a late inning reliever.

Beyond those guys, the ‘pen is mostly just guys who seldom have the stuff or command to advance past the seventh inning. The farm system offers some intriguing arms, but they’re almost universally still starters in the low minors, which is to say bullpen help won’t be coming this season.

The Red Sox are clearly going to try to sort this thing out again over the course of the season. That’s fine. It worked out pretty well the last two seasons, and really, it’s extremely difficult to build a bad bullpen when your starting point is Craig Kimbrel. But Kimbrel can’t pitch all the time. Smith returning as the same guy the Sox thought they were getting from Seattle two years ago would be the best possible scenario, since it would fill the hole in the eighth inning without asking Dombrowski to head out on the trade market where things can get a bit expensive, not to mention dangerous. If Smith can’t be Smith though, the Red Sox will be facing the one part of their roster not ready to compete for a World Series.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 Roster Recap Compendium

Brett Cowett — Tue, 13 Mar 2018 13:00:33 +0000

During the offseason, we here at BP Boston run a series called Roster Recaps, in which we detail the year that was for every player that graced the major league roster in 2017. Some you might vividly remember (Chris Sale!), while others you’ll struggle to recall what they did (Ben Taylor… ?). For the players in the latter category, we’ve got you covered. If you feel like looking back on some good times, we’ll accommodate you too.

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Roster Recap: Addison Reed’s Forgettable Stay

Cam Ellis — Wed, 10 Jan 2018 14:00:55 +0000

Sometime in the next three years, I’m definitely going to forget that Addison Reed pitched for the Red Sox. Such is the life with trade-deadline relievers; do you remember Matt Thornton pitching for the Red Sox in 2013? Of course you don’t, no one does. The Red Sox traded for Reed during the deadline last summer because Matt Barnes isn’t quite suited for the 8th inning.He was supposed to be the last piece of the bullpen puzzle, giving the Sox that coveted three-part bullpen that’s so trendy these days. The results were mixed, he wasn’t much of a factor in the playoffs – although he’s certainly not alone there – and he’s probably not returning next season. The Addison Reed era was utterly forgettable, so let’s remember it one more time!

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Reed wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t the pitcher they traded for, either. His strikeouts increased after coming over from the Mets, although there’s even a caveat there, because of course there is. He posted a sub-one WHIP (0.93) during his stint in Boston, and his batting average against by close to one hundred points. If you squint hard enough, you can see some good things that Reed did for the Sox.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Having to cherry pick small statistical improvements is a pretty glaring sign that not a lot went right. He wasn’t used nearly as much as he was in New York – after throwing 49 innings with the Mets, Reed only got 27 innings in a Red Sox uniform. The difference between Reed’s Boston ERA (3.33) and Boston FIP (4.60) indicates that he was benefiting from a fair bit of luck. His Boston BABIP (.175) backs that up, too. And while the strikeouts did increase, Reed also walked a ton of batters. After walking three percent of batters during the first half of 2017, Reed went from July 31st to the end of the year walking almost nine percent (8.5) of the batters he faced.

Reed was brought in so that the team didn’t need to rely on Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly as heavily. So, was he actually any better? Here are how Reed, Barnes, and Kelly all performed from the time Reed was traded for through the time the Astros mercifully put an end to them:

Kelly (21.2 IPs): .220/.319/.321 against; 3.62 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 16.0 K-BB%, 2 HRs

Barnes (19.2 IPs): .256/.310/.474 against, 4.07 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 23.8 K-BB%, 4 HRs

Reed (27.0 IPs): .167/.248/.358 against, 4.60 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, 17.9 K-BB%, 5 HRs

I honestly don’t know what’s more surprising: that Reed was that mediocre, or that Joe Kelly was probably the second-best right-handed reliever in the Red Sox bullpen for the final ten weeks of the season. The Red Sox tried to upgrade from Barnes/Kelly, and instead just got another one.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Reed pitching in the NL East. Again.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

John Farrell and Crisis Management

Matthew Kory — Fri, 06 Oct 2017 13:00:39 +0000

Perhaps a dinosaur could have rampaged through the dugout. Or maybe a hole could have opened under the clubhouse, through which the undead returned to earth to eat brains, slough skin, and generally wreak havoc. Or maybe something involving a pack of shin-biting badgers. Short of something like that, it’s difficult to concoct a worse scenario for the Red Sox than what actually happened in Game One of the ALDS against the Houston Astros. Sure, there were no rips in the space-time continuum, and nobody was eaten (that we know of), but the Red Sox’s chances of winning this series did seem to implode in upon itself like a badly played game of Jenga shortly after the announcer boomed “Play ball!” over the intercom.

First there was the almost immediate injury to Eduardo Nunez who, it seems, has had his last plate appearance as a member of the Boston Red Sox. After hitting a ground ball his leg gave out on him and he collapsed half way up the first base line. He had to be carried off the field. It was sad and dispiriting to watch. Then the Astros started hitting homers. That was also sad and dispiriting to watch. The Red Sox came back and tied the game, but never got a lead, and soon after Sale gave the lead back and then the back of the bullpen got involved and that’s about where you realized there was hockey or football on.

When watching a performance like that where one team completely outclasses the other, you would be forgiven for assuming the series is over after one game. It isn’t, it only feels that way. But some things are going to have to change and change quickly for us to reach the end of this series with anything but a Houston sweep.

Go back in time before Thursday’s game. If the Astros are to be beaten by this year’s Red Sox, we say to each other before the first pitch of Game One, several things have to go the Red Sox way. First, Boston’s bullpen, a stronger one than Houston possesses, needs to play a prominent role. The more innings thrown by David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, and maybe/probably Carson Smith, the better Boston’s chances to win. To that end, Boston’s manager, John Farrell, needs to be quick on the trigger. When a pitcher shows any signs of tiring or of simply not having it that day, Farrell needs to make a change. There is no time for starters to work through something. Farrell needs to be quick and proactive to stop potential damage from happening on the field. Further, the Red Sox will need some hitter(s) to take charge. Maybe Mookie can find that power stroke. Maybe Moreland gets silly hot. Maybe Hanley’s shoulder magically heals. Doesn’t matter who. It only matters if. So those are the three things: the pen, Farrell, and Boston’s hitters, and they all need to happen because the Astros are a better team.

So, how did all that work in the first game? First, Chris Sale didn’t have it. That was clear after the first inning when he gave up two solo homers. It was even clearer when he gave up two more runs in the fourth inning on three hard hit balls. Farrell’s response was to stick with Sale in the fifth. Sale came out in the fifth and gave up a third solo homer. It was now 5-2 and yet, after the Sox went down 1-2-3, there was Sale out on the mound again in the sixth inning. Farrell failed to understand the gravity of the moment and stuck with his ace in the fifth and it cost him a run. Then he did it again in the sixth, and it cost him two more runs. As it turned out, he didn’t have that many runs to give away.

When Farrell finally came to get Sale with two runners on and no outs in the sixth, it was well past too late. The Astros’ chances of winning were already over 90 percent. But then Farrell proved he still didn’t grasp the importance of what was left of the game by bringing in Joe Kelly. Kelly promptly gave up a single, struck out Marwin Gonzalez on a beautiful full-count changeup, then gave up a two-run single to Brian McCann and that was, for all intents and purposes, the ballgame. Kelly was a bad choice because, despite the 100 mph fastball, he isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s not really any kind of pitcher, truthfully, but especially not a strikeout pitcher who could get the team out of that inning without any further damage and preserve whatever was left of the Red Sox’ chances. That was a prime spot for David Price, or, if Price wasn’t ready yet, Addison Reed followed by Price. The Red Sox needed to exit that inning without making things worse and Kelly was a poor choice as a tool to reach that outcome. The fact that he failed only underscored the poor choice Farrell made.

There should be more power in that group and in the larger roster. But this season, right now, there isn’t. And against what looked like a pretty hittable Justin Verlander, the Red Sox came up small.

Then there was the Red Sox offense. This is the team we’ve been watching all season long so it should come as no surprise that they walked a bit and singled up a storm, but the extra base hits were few and far between. While the Astros were hitting the ball into and over the wall, the Red Sox were rounding first, clapping, and jogging back to hope for three more so they could score. I’m still not sure if this is some sort of systemic problem, or if it’s just a bad season in the power department. It’s been well-catalogued that just about every important hitter took a step back (and often more than that) in the power department. Given the ages of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, and their pedigrees, there should be more power in that group and in the larger roster. But this season, right now, there isn’t. And against what looked like a pretty hittable Justin Verlander, the Red Sox came up small.

When compared with the swing-from-their-heels Astros, who hit 97 mph fastballs over the wall when they were a few inches away from where they were supposed to go, Verlander’s high sliders looked tantalizingly hittable. But they weren’t hit. In the end, we are left with what one playoff game always leaves us with: one game’s worth of data. The Astros are an excellent hitting team, one of the greatest hitting teams we’ve seen in a long time. That’s what we saw today. But even the Astros don’t average eight runs and four homers a game. So part of this is on the Astros greatness, but part is on the Red Sox lack of greatness, or at least lack of greatness for the day, anyway.

If the Red Sox are to win this series (or any of the games in it), John Farrell has to get far more aggressive with his bullpen, one of the few advantages Boston has in this series. If he waits until the game is mostly out of hand before using it, then the series is likely lost, short of the Red Sox offense shaking off a season’s worth of malaise and hitting like 2016 again. But in the end, John Farrell is John Farrell and David Ortiz isn’t walking through that clubhouse door. So maybe, in the end, it didn’t matter so much whether flesh-eating pandas tore down the clubhouse door prior to first pitch because, unless things change, this series was lost before it began.

Photo by Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Abad: A good, but not a great reliever

Cam Ellis — Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:00:10 +0000

I’ve been thinking a lot about this tweet lately:

Fernando Abad has an ERA of 2.07 in the 8th inning or later. That's 31 appearances. Lefties are hitting .190 overall. (He's not bad.)

— Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) September 19, 2017

While we were all on Twitter making the same Abad pun, he actually stopped being bad. He certainly hasn’t been overused – he’s pitched 18 innings over the last two months – but still, the numbers aren’t bad. Some of them are downright impressive.

It’s been over a month since Abad walked a batter. His 31.5 percent K/BB% has been fourth-best on the team (albeit with a possibly significant caveat that we’ll get to in a second) over that time. His K/9 (7.7) is as high as it’s ever been all year, and he’s lowered his BB/9 back to league average after struggling with walks in July and August.

Since the beginning of August, he has a 2.67 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and a .262 AVG against. Interestingly enough, he’s done his best work against righties this season. In fact, he’s never been better against righties than he is this year, posting a FIP under four for only the second time in his career and the first time since his 2013 season in Washington. His improvement against right-handed hitters has made all the difference, as this season’s stats against left-handed hitters are right around his career norms.

What’s the reason for his newfound competency against righties? Some of the answer can probably be found by looking at his pitch selection over the second half of the year:

Ever since mid-July, when Abad was pitching about as poorly as any point this season, he’s done a drastically better job mixing his pitches. Just how much that plays into his improved command is a tricky thing to prove, but it’s clear that something’s working.

The problem, of course, is that Abad hasn’t seen much game action in the first place. Despite being fourth overall in innings pitched this year (42.1), only 14.2 of those innings have come in the second half of the season. Also worth noting: of Abad’s 42.1 innings, 33 of them have come in low leverage innings. Abad’s been the mop-up, garbage-time guy all year.

Abad still isn’t meant for high-leverage situations. When it comes to a post season spot, however, it seems like Abad’s second half has been enough to warrant a conversation.

Evan Drellich of CSNNE wrote recently that the Red Sox should take a look at him when rounding out their postseason roster. There’s certainly something to be made about, as Drellich puts it, riding the hot hand. It’s an idea that all of a sudden doesn’t sound so crazy, which in itself sounds so crazy.

Abad got a taste of a high-leverage situation during the Sox’s first game in Baltimore. The lefty came in with a one-run lead and quickly gave it back, allowing Pedro Alvarez to hit only his second home run of the year off a lefty pitcher. It was a moment that seemed to be a reminder that, despite playing better of late, Abad still isn’t meant for high-leverage situations. When it comes to a post season spot, however, it seems like Abad’s second half has been enough to warrant a conversation.

Should Abad even make the postseason roster, it’s not like he’s going to see any action after the 5th/6th inning. The 7th inning is ~~hopefully~~ probably going to ~~Carson Smith~~ Matt Barnes, with a pitching-much-better-recently Addison Reed taking the 8th and obviously Kimbrel comes after that. It’s not like Abad was ever going to be considered for any of those.

Abad’s playoff ceiling is probably a mid-innings gap-guy who keeps people off base. At worst, his floor is Price’s insurance policy/extra body for the one inevitable 15-inning game that will definitely be on a work night and start at 8:37 PM.

Either way, there’s value in those roles. Come playoffs, there’s value in any relief pitcher who’s on top of their game. Abad’s the hot hand, and there’s no real harm in the Sox seeing how far they can ride it. Fernando Abad: the potentially valuable bullpen piece. I’ve got a fresh box of Tums ready for the occasion.

Photo by Gregory Fisher – USA TODAY Sports

How The Red Sox Just Won The World Series

Matthew Kory — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 13:00:09 +0000

Many baseball articles start from the assumption that the future isn’t predetermined. What happens now will influence and alter what is to come. That makes sense because it’s true. If you hit yourself in the face with a hammer you’re unlikely to do well at pick-up basketball later that evening down at the gym. Or, maybe more germanely, if Xander Bogaerts learns to stop swinging at sliders low and out of the zone he’ll hit better. But let’s throw all that out. Instead let’s start with the end already known and work backwards to learn how it happened. You read the title so you already know what the something is: the Red Sox have just won the World Series. How did they do it?

Answer: Three different answers.

Answer 1: The Bullpen Stepped Up

No matter which stat you pick, the Red Sox bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. They’re second in ERA, fifth in strikeout percentage, sixth in walk percentage, fourth in FIP, and tied for fourth in xFIP. They’re quite good. So in that sense they don’t have that far to go to be the best. The Red Sox saw last year what a smartly deployed bullpen can do in the post-season when former Red Sox manager and national treasure Terry Francona used Cleveland’s bullpen to help author a series sweep, and they can author their own version of it.

As good as the pen was during the regular season, the good news for the Red Sox is it can get even better during the postseason. Adding David Price and likely Eduardo Rodriguez (or possibly Rick Porcello) to the bullpen can provide the Red Sox multiple quality innings when necessary. Alternatively, a pitcher like Price could represent a real one inning weapon out of the pen, freeing up Addison Reed to be used to put out fires earlier in the game. That’s all before we get to the main strength of Boston’s pen in Craig Kimbrel. We saw Kimbrel throw extended outings during the regular season and once the postseason rolls around those type of outings will likely become the norm. Imagine games where the Red Sox get seven innings out of Chris Sale, then face either Reed or Price, and then Kimbrel. Where’s the opening for an opposing offense in that?

Boston may not score a lot of runs so most of the games are likely to be close, but the Red Sox can win because their starting rotation successfully gets through the lineup twice and their bullpen eliminates any scoring after that.

[cue duck boats]

/scene

Answer 2: Starting Pitching Started Strong

In the postseason, the best players are often magnified. Think Madison Bumgarner for the Giants or, last season, Andrew Miller for the Indians. The Red Sox best player this season is Chris Sale so the burden of greatness naturally falls upon him. Sale represents the chance to win multiple games with minimal help during each round of the playoffs. He could even emerge from the bullpen on multiple occasions in between starts as well. Beyond Sale, the Red Sox can get effective innings from Drew Pomeranz, Doug Fister, and either Porcello or Rodriguez. When starters go deep into games, that means the bullpen is rested and that means the manager has the ability to use only his best relievers for a higher percentage of relief innings.

Answer 3: Someone in the lineup turned into David Ortiz

Most of you probably remember the 2013 World Series and at least one of its salient details, such as the Red Sox winning. What you might not remember is the offense was putrid. The Red Sox could not hit during much of that postseason and especially so once in the World Series. Through six games, the team as a whole hit .169/.225/.309. How is it possible to win a seven game series – ANY seven game series! – at all, let alone in six games, while hitting (yes I’m going to write it again so please remove all impressionable children and adults with heart conditions from the room) .169/.225/.309?

Well, the Red Sox didn’t actually hit quite that badly. I left one player out. That slash line is how the Red Sox hit without David Ortiz. With Ortiz the Red Sox hit .211/.291/.330. That’s still bad, but it’s a significant jump from the previous slash line. You get a big jump like that when someone hits .688/.760/1.188. Yes, Ortiz was getting on base 76 percent of the time and averaging over a full base per at-bat during the World Series. Insane. Look at Ortiz’s slash line again. That’s what carrying a team looks like when you express it numerically.

For the Red Sox to win, they need someone to do something huge, like that, to start and finish rallies virtually every time up. David Ortiz isn’t around anymore so we need a new guy to carry the team. I nominate Mookie Betts. Betts has had a rough couple months at the plate, but every once in a while he shows flashes of the tremendous talent we all know is still in there. Like Tuesday when Betts went 3-for-5 with two homers and a triple. Unfortunately he followed that day up with an 0-for-3 (with one walk) the next night. Carrying a team is tough work. There’s a reason David Ortiz is David Ortiz.

As a matter of record, the other guy who might just turn it on all at once is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has put together stretches like Ortiz’s before in his career even if they haven’t been in the postseason or even this season.

* * *

The good thing for this year’s Red Sox is there are few if any prerequisites for winning the World Series. You needn’t be the best team in baseball (2006 Cardinals) or even in your division (2004 Red Sox) to win it all. Teams have won championships primarily through the power of their starting pitching (2014 San Francisco Giants), they’ve won with an unhittable bullpen (2015 Kansas City Royals), or they’ve been crazy clutch (2011 St. Louis Cardinals). We’ve seen teams win with defense, smart managing, timely hitting, and on and on. It doesn’t hurt to be the best team in baseball, to have the best hitter, pitcher, manager, or whatever, but it sure isn’t required. The Red Sox aren’t the best team in baseball in 2017, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t walk away with the trophy. Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Mookie Betts, and rest of the team will have their chance to see to that soon enough.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

This Red Sox Team Is Fun

Matthew Kory — Fri, 25 Aug 2017 13:00:13 +0000

There’s been much discussion of the Red Sox and how they’re fun or, if you’re wrong, how they’re not fun. Let me be plain about where I stand. This Red Sox team is fun. They are. You know that silly little dance the Red Sox outfielders do after a win? That’s fun! Sometimes Benintendi does his Michael Jackson leg swing thing, other times it’s Jackie Bradley doing his ski jump (Jackie looooves a good ski jump), but mostly it’s Mookie doing whatever it is he feels like. I love it because it’s funny, but also because it’s fun when they’re have fun. Fun, like a yawn on the subway, is contagious. They can’t do the dance without smiling, and I can’t watch it without having the same reaction. It’s not possible.

It’s fun because it’s silly, because it’s juvenile, and because it’s utterly unnecessary. I love that they’ve spent time figuring this thing out – you do this, and you do this and I’ll do this, no wait let’s try it this way, and on and on – time which has been spent together, working as friends.

Winning baseball is fun. Any team that wins is fun. And this 2017 Red Sox team wins, so by definition they are fun. But this team is more than fun-because-they-win fun. This team is straight up roller-coaster milk-coming-out-your-nose yelling-out-the-moon-roof-of-a-moving-car fun, and the outfield dance is only one reason. Here are many, many others.

Anytime anyone tries to hit a ball past Dustin Pedroia.
Chili Davis. On one end of the cool cat scale you have former Yankees catcher Brian McCann, who probably dresses like an old timey school marm and hits puppies with sticks for fun. On the other end of the cool cat scale you have Chili Davis, who plays jazz trumpet in clubs until 4am and will chat you up long after that. Does he really play jazz trumpet in clubs after games? Who knows, but metaphorically speaking absolutely.
Hanley. The Red Sox drafted him and then they dealt him away. That happens. Baseball is a business. But through all that, through two other organizations and a literal decade of time, dude still felt an attachment to Boston and wanted to come back. I’ll never forget that. Also he’s a total goofball whose helmet needs to be crazy-glued to his hair. We should get a Kickstarter rolling for that.
Hanley’s homers. GOOD GOD Y’ALL, those things GO. When he gets a hold of one it’s a sight to see. I tell ya, A SIGHT TO SEE!
You know what’s fun? Stuff that is exciting! And you know what’s exciting? Any time the Red Sox get a base runner! Will he steal? Maybe! Will he be thrown out at home by 30 feet? Maybe! Exciting! Fun!
Andrew Benintendi’s hair.
Andrew Benintendi’s swing.
Andrew Benintendi.
You know how when Mookie stands in the batter’s box and glares back at the pitcher his lip does this little curl thing, kinda like Elvis Presley used to do? I love that.
Craig Kimbrel is striking out more than half the batters he’s faced this season. He’s at 51.8 percent right now! Exclamation point! Vomit! YELLING! Fifty-one point eight perWHAT! AHHHHHHH! That’s a lot is what I’m saying.
So this kid who is 20 years old was playing for Salem, Virginia in the Carolina League last season and now he’s the starting third baseman for the Red Sox and he’s always smiling like that time he smiled after he turned around a 103 mph fastball from Aroldis Chapman and tied the game in ninth inning. That was a smile!
Joe Kelly’s velocity readings are fun!
Joe Kelly’s great stuff is funny because it’s not real, which is fun!
You know how the Yankees aren’t doing great and are always mad and they are paying Aroldis Chapman a lot of money to be awful? That’s not directly related to the Red Sox but it sure is fun anyway!
The standings! You should look at them sometime. They are great fun.
Mookie sometimes fools fielders and thieves bases from them.
Jackie’s defense. Have you ever seen him miss a ball? Like, ever?
Sandy Leon and his occasional magic. You never see it coming and then POW! Right in the kisser!
Brandon Workman last pitched in the majors in 2014. You know who started the most games for that team? Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, Rubby De La Rosa, and Workman. That’s a long time ago! Then Workman got hurt and rehabbed and then he got hurt again and rehabbed and his rehab didn’t take and he had to start and stop and start and stop and start and stop again. Poor guy as recently as this season was throwing 87 in the minors and getting lit up. Now he’s back in the mid-90s and looking like a worthwhile piece of a major league bullpen. That’s persistence. That’s perseverance. That’s impressive. Also, remember that time he batted in the World Series? Less fun, that.
Addison Reed will probably help eventually!
Eduardo Nunez: How bad must the Giants have been that they couldn’t win with this guy?
Remember that time Doug Fister looked like Chris Sale? That was fun! (We’ll ignore the time Chris Sale looked like Doug Fister.)
Robby Scott might not be your favorite Red Sox, but he’s one of mine. Remember Daniel Nava? Scott is the reliever version of Nava. Like Nava, Scott went undrafted and started his career in pro ball only Scott played for the Yuma Scorpions of the independent league where he was teammates with Jose and Ozzie Canseco. It’s like wanting to be a baseball player and the only job available was with the circus. He almost quit baseball to become a teacher, which considering his circumstances, made perfect sense. But now he’s in a major league bullpen!
Fenway Park. I don’t care that the seats are small and everything costs a fortune. Okay, I care, but the point is that’s the place Ruth played, where Williams and Yaz and Ortiz all made their names. It’s worth it, it’s worth every bit of it. Fenway is on the top of any list of major league ballparks because it’s living history, but also because it’s damn beautiful right now. Really, it’s at the top of any list of pro sports stadiums that you have to visit. It’s the best.
Fernando Abad has been okay!
Rick Porcello’s immaculate inning. Remember that?! That was crazy!
Rafael Devers’ triple play. Remember that?!? That was crazy!
Unexpected stuff is lots of fun, when it’s good, and Porcello’s 2016 was exactly that. Drew Pomeranz has taken up where Rick Porcello’s 2016 season left off. Pomeranz has been as valuable as Jose Quintana and Jake Arrieta by BP’s metrics, and as valuable as Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander by Baseball Reference. Pomeranz has been what the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed David Price. He’s been that good.
Chris Young’s weird short-armed swing is so weird. How does he hit the ball? I don’t know!
Chris Sale has over 253 strikeouts which coincidentally is the same number of times I would strike out against Chris Sale were I to bat against him 253 times.
Heath Hembree’s hair. It’s like he saw the movie Coming To America where Eddie Murphy’s character wears soul glow hair goop and thought, yeah, that’s what I want.
Have you seen those embarrassing high school pictures the relievers (probably Joe Kelly) have hung in the bullpen? They’re hilarious!

This is only a partial list. There’s also Brian Johnson’s complete game five-hitter against the Mariners in May, Tzu-Wei Lin getting three hits in a 15-1 win over the Blue Jays, and of course, that time Deven Marrero hit two homers in the same game off Jose Quintana. It really does go on and on with this team. They are a ton of fun, and that will be true whether they go out meekly in the first round, or win the World Series. Even after a spanking from Cleveland, I look forward to the next Red Sox game. Fun times are good.

Photo by Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports

Boarding the Workman Bandwagon

Cam Ellis — Wed, 16 Aug 2017 13:00:07 +0000

It’s hard to get a good feel for if the Red Sox bullpen, outside of Craig Kimbrel, is good or not. Matt Barnes has been reliable at home (1.44 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 33.9 strikeout rate in 29 innings pitched) and anything but on the road (4.69 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 21.7 strikeout rate in 27 innings pitched). Joe Kelly throws 102 miles an hour and can’t strike anyone out. Robbie Scott has a home run problem (19.4 HR/FB rate – worst of any Red Sox reliever) and Addison Reed’s tenure in a Red Sox uniform has gone about as poorly as you could have imagined. Fernando Abad and Heath Hembree are middle relief guys. Carson Smith is an intriguing late-season addition, but by no means a guaranteed plus. As a whole, it’s a clearly flawed group. They’re not necessarily bad – still ranking in the top-1o for FIP, ERA, K/9, among others – but they’re not as dependable as we’d like, either.

That’s why it’s time to get on board with Brandon Workman. Workman has quietly been increasing his workload, throwing 46 pitches in 3.2 innings spread out over the last seven days. In fact, in the month since Workman returned, he’s thrown more innings (16.2) than any pitcher in the bullpen. He has the best WHIP (0.78), is walking the fewest amount of hitters (3.3 percent) and has the second-lowest average against (.193) of anyone who’s thrown at least 10 relief innings in the last 30 days. Teammates think he might even be better than he was before Tommy John:

Matt Barnes said he thinks Brandon Workman might be better now than he was pre-Tommy John.

— Jason Mastrodonato (@JMastrodonato) August 10, 2017

Basically, Workman has been at least the second-best relief pitcher over the last month. Given Kimbrel’s (relative) shakiness over that same period of time, a convincing argument could be made that Workman’s been their best option since he returned.

He’s been great in high leverage situations, too. There was this performance against Kansas City:

And then this against Cleveland:

Given that he’s shown the ability to be relied on in big spots – not just this season, either – and that the Red Sox generally don’t have many better options, it makes no sense that of Workman’s 17.1 innings this season, 11.2 of them have been innings designated as “low leverage.”

At this point, I’d argue there’s no clear preferred choice for who gets the eighth inning. If you’re terrified of pitching your set-up guy on the road, is he really a reliable set-up guy? Workman’s even got his old fastball back, touching 95 on multiple occasions this season:

(Interesting note: Workman has completely given up on throwing his change up this year)

A healthy Workman that’s pitching this well deserves more chances to prove himself in high-leverage situations. He was a successful set-up guy in the World Series before health derailed his career – now that he’s seemingly back on track, it’s time to give him the eighth inning and see what he does with it.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

You Gotta Relieve

Matthew Kory — Fri, 21 Jul 2017 13:00:22 +0000

We know the Red Sox need a third baseman. I know it, you know it, even the Red Sox know it, probably. The release of Pablo Sandoval and the fact that all potential replacements from the roster are variations on the utility infielder theme both point toward the Red Sox swinging some sort of deal for a third baseman between now and the July 31 trade deadline. Less certain though is whether or not Red Sox President Dave Dombrowski will make other trades to try and improve the team for the stretch run. The bullpen is no more than second to the hole at third base, a hole which if not addressed threatens to swallow up shortstop and potentially third base coach Brian Butterfield. The pen is less of a matter-gobbling black hole, but another good reliever never hurts. The issues are ‘who’ and ‘how much.’

The Red Sox have a closer in Craig Kimbrel, and they have some set-up-y men in Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, if manager John Farrell chooses to push him that far, and Joe Kelly, should he return to health. You could make the argument that Kelly’s horrendous strikeout rate, Barnes’ propensity to walk hitters, and the fact that Workman hasn’t worked for going on four seasons makes them all ill-suited for a set-up role, and that argument, should you make it, might not be wrong.

It should be pointed out however that the Red Sox bullpen, cobbled together though it may be, has been one of the best pens in all of baseball. To date they’ve been ninth in strikeout percentage, fifth lowest in walk percentage, and fourth lowest in home runs per nine innings. And yet…well, yeah, I know. It’s not like this bullpen has a bunch of big names after Kimbrel that you’d feel comfortable giving the ball to in a close playoff game. So let’s explore the trade market for relievers together, shall we?

We should probably start by saying that the Red Sox missed the boat on two relievers who would’ve been hugely helpful in Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson, both formerly of the White Sox. The Yankees gave up big prospects for them so there wasn’t much Boston could do given the state of their minor league system, but it’s unfortunate that those guys are going to actively work against the Red Sox instead of help them. Anyway. Moving on.

There are more than a few relievers on the market who could help the Red Sox immediately and immensely. Names like Justin Wilson, Pat Neshek, Addison Reed, Raisel Iglesias, and Felipe Rivero all come to mind. The issue, as always, is how much will they cost. The thing about relievers is that today’s excellent shut-down reliever is tomorrow’s over-priced homer-prone mess, and tomorrow’s over-priced homer-prone mess is the day after tomorrow’s Tommy John surgery recipient or DFA candidate. So it’s dicy. The Yankees went all in on Robertson, who due to make about $20 million between now and the end of next season, and Kahnle, who has never pitched this well before and is throwing sliders at a rate that could make your arm explode if I told you what the rate is. That’s not to say those guys won’t help the Yankees now, in the playoffs, or next season. They will, or could, or might. But they’re relievers. So you can never say for sure. The only thing for sure is what you just paid to get them.

One of the relievers who figures to be dealt before the 31st is Justin Wilson. Wilson is the Tigers closer and the Tigers just figured out they’re not going anywhere and teams that aren’t going anywhere need what they can get for a closer at the deadline far more than they need a closer. So Wilson is available. He’s 29, left-handed, and has seen a big jump in his strikeout rate this season, so… yeah. Relievers. Anyway, his walk rate is pretty high too, almost to Barnes-ian levels. That and as a closer he figures to be expensive. But he’s under team control through next season and he’d be an upgrade for Boston even with those issues, so perhaps there’s a deal for Dombrowski to make with his former team.

Another name that has been bandied about the interwebs is that of Pat Neshek. Neshek is on the Phillies, so you know he’s available and despite his age (36, almost 37) he’s been incredibly good. His strikeout rate is up and his walk rate is down and he’s been equally effective against both left-handed hitters and righties this season despite his odd style of throwing. He is a fly ball pitcher so that might work against him in Fenway Park, and his stats are helped by the fact that the ball has stayed in the park maybe a bit more than his actual skill would dictate this season. Still, the overall package is a shutdown reliever. The Phillies will look to cash in their one trade chip, but given that Neshek is old, doesn’t throw hard, and will be a free agent at the end of the year, perhaps there’s a non-crazy price that’s worth paying here.

Another reliever available is Addison Reed, a fastball/slider pitcher with a good strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate who is toiling away for the Mets. Like Neshek he’s a fly ball pitcher without platoon splits on a one year deal who would look great in an eighth inning role for the Red Sox. So would Brad Hand of the Padres. Hand would be an incredible get by Dombrowski as his strikeout and walk numbers have been fantastic this season (32.1 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively). He’s not a free agent until 2020 either so the Red Sox would have him for a number of years, though as a reliever, who knows how valuable that would actually be. The point would be to put him into the eighth inning role in 2017 and watch the wins roll in, which they might actually do. The problem would be the cost, because even if we look at those years of control and go “eh?” the Padres are still gonna charge you for them. That plus the fact that Hand is damn good and therefore a bunch of teams are going to want him will likely push him outside the bounds of what the Red Sox are willing to pay. Reed may wind up being more the Red Sox speed. Or he may prove too expensive as well. It’s the deadline and we’re talking about relievers so things tend to get crazy.

The overall point is that though the Yankees got better with Kahnle and Robertson, there are other relievers out there who are just as good, or as good as Robertson anyway, and would help the Red Sox. A pen with Kimbrel, and either Reed, Neshek, or Hand would be fantastic, especially if Workman proves to be worth something, especially especially if Barnes’ new motion pays dividends, especially especially especially if Carson Smith ever makes it back healthy before the year closes out. You don’t have to squint too hard to see how you might feel much better about the Boston bullpen in one of those scenarios.

All of which is to say the Red Sox have the makings of a solid bullpen. They don’t absolutely need to go out and get someone else. They have guys and those guys have been surprisingly effective to date. But these are relievers. So the more you have, the better off you are. Because really, who the heck knows.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports