April wasn’t the best month for Benny. He couldn’t get anything in the air (44 percent groundball rate) nor could he do anything with the fly balls he did hit (3.7 percent HR/FB rate), and those two teamed up to bring about Stone Age levels of power from the outfielder. Compounding this was the fact that Benintendi seemed more passive than patient at the plate to begin with. It’s not a bad thing to take pitches, not at all — it’s a bad thing when you’re taking hittable pitches, much less pitches you can drive. It’s nice that your OBP is .350, but with context like, say, an OPS of .740, it doesn’t look so pristine. That was his reality in April. Nothing looked terrible, just mediocre. But mediocre is a disappointment for someone with Benintendi’s potential, especially after what he had shown over the last eight-to-nine months of baseball in the major leagues.

It was more than a little worrying at first, especially when it came to thinking about how the season would go — the Red Sox could certainly boast that they had the best outfield unit in the majors, sure, but when Jackie Bradley Jr. can’t hit and Benintendi looks more content with passivity than action in his plate appearances, it definitely doesn’t look that way, no matter how many dingers J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts combine for. When it came to the offense, no one really expected Bradley to hit, but Benintendi? He needed to hit, as a very polished 23-year-old who just had a 20-20 season. The defense, though? Still good. Baserunning? Still a dumpster fire. At least those two aspects stayed that way, so you knew what you were getting with those.

But here we are on June 12th, and no one’s worried anymore.

Benintendi was a force of nature in May, pulling off a stunning rebound from his docile April self. He got a lot more balls in the air (45 percent fly ball rate), did more damage with them (14 percent HR/FB rate), and damn near doubled his power output, seeing his Isolated Power mark rise from .174 to .284. Statcast is still a huge fan of his, as he’s now 17th in the league in average exit velocity, and his 18 barrels are good for 8th. That homer above? That was a barreled baseball that got sent 437 feet. Benintendi is hitting something classified as “hard-hit” over 33 percent of the time. On average, every third batted ball is smoked. The kid is alright, it seems.

I’d like to say there was a deeper, number-crunching analysis of why he’s doing so well now as compared to the first month of the season, but he’s simply hitting the ball harder again, and not taking as many of the pitches he’s now crushing. Being a good hitter isn’t just waiting for a pitch — it’s also capitalizing on that pitch once you get it, be it a fastball in the wheelhouse or a slider that just won’t slide all the way across. Benintendi seems to have realized that, and has proceeded to make good contact and drive the ball once again. It’s not like this sudden surge of excellence was unexpected either, since his exit velocity and launch angle have been steadily increasing per season. He’s steadily upped the exit velo at least one mile per hour for each year he’s been in the majors, and his launch angle has been trending upwards as well. Take a look, y’all:

This is what Benintendi’s launch angle looked like 2017. Not a ton of hits in the 10-to-30 degree range, but the whole team had power issues last year, so he’s not alone in that. In 2018, however, he’s brought the rain:

That’s more like it. He’s getting some loud, hard contact in there now, and it’s starting to show.

Not only is the quality of the contact improving, everything else is coming along with it. Remember that passivity I talked about? Well, now he’s walking 12 percent of the time again, and he’s kept up the power numbers while doing that. June’s numbers are squarely in the small sample size camp, but you can’t help but be giddy when you see that beautiful .390 ISO under Benintendi’s name for the month. He’s back, and better than ever.

The best part is that even with his recent surge, he’s not really at risk of some regression. The vast majority of what he’s done and currently doing is pretty sustainable for him. His BABIP recently has been fairly normal, and his HR/FB rate isn’t some gaudy 25 percent or anything — it’s just a couple percentage points above what he did last year. Compared to last year, the one thing he’s done substantially more of is swing more often at pitches in the zone, which, considering his last six weeks, has been a boon so far.

Maybe Benintendi’s just a slow starter. We haven’t seen enough of his Aprils to really know. But it sure is nice to have him back on track to being that outfielder we thought he could be. There are few things sweeter in baseball than a smooth, left-handed swing, and seeing Benintendi’s knock a few baseballs over the fence again just makes it that much better.

Header photo by Tommy Gilligan — USA TODAY Sports

So how are the Red Sox lining up on defense? How do they compare against not only other teams, but their own teammates? Let’s take a look.

LEFT FIELD

In left, Benintendi’s and J.D. Martinez’s positioning is pretty similar. And when I say pretty similar, what I mean is that it is almost completely identical. Here’s how they look:

Don’t waste your time squinting and trying to decipher the two. You will get a headache from staring at the screen, not be able to fall asleep, and I don’t want that on my conscience.

On a larger scale, the Red Sox play a shallow left field. The average left fielder plays at a depth of 294 ft. Martinez plays at 290 feet, and Benintendi sets up shop at 289. Of 52 players who have been in left for at least 100 plate appearances, only Cincinnati’s Jesse Winkler plays a more shallow left field than Benintendi. That’s a not-insignificant difference, but then you remember that there’s a gigantic green wall in left field at Fenway Park and things start to make some more sense. There’s no gigantic green wall in Cincinnati, so I’m not really sure what Winkler’s excuse is.

CENTER FIELD

Here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Benintendi and JBJ are the only qualified centerfielders for the Sox, and their position could not be any more different:

For starters, you can see two dots! That is encouraging. As you might have guessed, that shallow dot is Andrew Benintendi. While the average centerfielder plays at 316 feet, Benintendi lines up at 308. Once again, it is the second-most shallow position of any qualified center fielder, this time behind the White Sox’ Adam Engel. Whether it’s his choice or something the coaches are telling him, it’s fascinating to see that Benintendi plays one of the most shallow outfields in baseball.

The deeper dot, obviously, is Jackie Bradley Jr. He still plays more shallow than the average center fielder, with JBJ settling in at 312 feet. Of the 48 qualified CF’s, JBJ’s depth puts him at 38. It gets even more interesting when you turn the calendar back a year and see that in 2017, he was setting up at 326 feet. He’s playing nearly five yards more shallow this season, which seems… dramatic.

Worried about the Red Sox shallow-playing tendencies? Don’t be. If you take a look at who JBJ is grouped with, you’ll notice names like Engel, Buxton, Marisnick, and Hamilton. What do all those names have in common? All four are in the top half of MLB’s fastest center fielders. In fact, Buxton, Engel, and Hamilton make up three of the top four. You can’t teach speed, and the wheels that the aforementioned players posses allow them to cheat in a little more than others normally would. If anything, it should be noted how impressive it is that Bradley plays a shallow center field with positionally-average speed. He doesn’t need the game-changing speed that the other players at his depth do to make the same catches.

JBJ also plays the ball as straight up as straight up can be. Of those 48 qualified CFs, only three set up at an exact zero-degree angle. I’m not entirely sure how important that actually is, but being only one of three fielders to do it seems noteworthy. To be honest I’m not sure any Red Sox fan cares what angle he lines up at if he keeps making absurd diving catches once every two innings.

RIGHT FIELD

Since there’s only one qualified Red Sox right fielder, here’s how Mookie Betts lines up against the rest of baseball:

Considering how cavernous Fenway’s right field is, it’s fascinating that Betts plays so shallow and center. He sets up at 279 feet, far far below the MLB average of 293. He also shades farther into center field than any other right fielder in baseball, standing at a 25 degree angle. The only other player that comes close to that is San Diego’s Travis Jankowski, who makes up for his dramatic angle by playing the deepest right field in baseball. Whatever the reasoning is, it’s working for Mookie. Betts currently ranks sixth in baseball with five outs above average. His Catch Percentage Added sits right at six percent, which is good for 11th-best in baseball. Add in the rest of what he’s doing this year, and Mookie can do whatever he wants and line up wherever he wants. He’ll still get the job done.

Header photo by Richard Mackson — USA TODAY Sports

At first glance, taking a look at his plate discipline numbers doesn’t help much. He’s shown some gradual improvement – swinging less at balls and more at strikes than he did last season — but he’s swinging at roughly the same rate (44 percent) as he did last year. He’s even making more contact, too.

The slow start is a two-pronged issue. To start, take a look at where he’s being pitched to this year as opposed to the season before. Here’s his 2017 and 2018 pitch map side by side:

He’s just not getting as many good pitches to hit. It’s clearly still early, but you can see that Benintendi isn’t getting as many strikes this year.  It’s obviously a big reason why Benintendi’s drawing more walks. After drawing walks 10 percent of the time last season, he’s raised that number to over 16 percent in 2018.

Secondly, he’s not making the strong contact that he made last year. That makes sense, given the nature of how pitchers are attacking him, but Benintendi has struggled to adjust up to this point. Despite making contact at the same rate that he did last season, he’s only made hard contact 21 percent of the time this year. Given that he made hard contact 34 percent of the time last season, the sharp drop speaks for itself.

Mosey on over to Statcast and you’ll see the same thing. Benintendi’s average exit velocity (87 mph) is below league average (89 mph). His average launch angle is three degrees below league average. The ball’s just not coming off his bat like it did last year. At least not yet.

The good news is that after an icy-cold start, he’s hitting .278/.325/.427 over the last 14 days. He’s been making hard contact 29 percent of the time during that span too, a welcome trend in the right direction. One of Benintendi’s greatest strengths as a hitter is his ability to make quick adjustments, and this recent stretch has all the makings of just that.

It’s easy to talk about how good the Red Sox are right now. They’re really, really good — two games better than the Mets, even! Still, as weird as it might be to say, some spotty performances and injury mishaps could say that the Sox haven’t even hit their actual ceiling just yet. As ridiculous as the Red Sox have been to open this season, what we’ve seen may not even be their best selves.

The bullpen is the most obvious complaint in the early going. The season kicked off with an unfortunate late-inning implosion, after all. Boston’s league-leading pitching numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they currently roster seven arms with ERAs higher than 4.00 when pitching out of the ‘pen — Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, Marcus Walden, Hector Velazquez, and Carson Smith. Craig Kimbrel is an eldritch bullpen horror and Bobby Poyner looks like a nice middle-inning/lefty specialist find, but the team’s potential answers in high-leverage, late-inning scenarios seem limited. A lot of these guys are underperforming their peripherals, and Smith in particular should improve as he settles in as a healthy contributor for the first time since 2015. Still, this is an area I could really see the Red Sox addressing at the trade deadline, as they could benefit greatly from one or two more reliable arms.

Offensively, the Red Sox have looked simultaneously impressive and inconsistent. Runs were a little hard to come by in the early going, as they put up four or fewer in six of the first seven games (two of which went into extras), but they’ve been flowing fairly regularly ever since. Mookie Betts has been ridiculous, as have Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez. Last year’s power drought feels like ancient history.

And yet, there’s room for a little more there, too. J.D. Martinez is heating up, but he’s still far from his lofty 2017 level and even a ways off from the slightly more modest seasons before that. He’s striking out a little more than usual, and walking a little less. Andrew Benintendi is walking quite a bit and his contact rate is up, but that contact has been weaker — only 17.8 percent of his batted balls are classified as hard-hit on Fangraphs, way down from his 34.3 percent mark last season. Rafael Devers is enduring some growing pains, slugging almost 100 points worse than his 58-game taste of the majors last season.

It’s a safe bet these trends will fix themselves before long, because all three of these hitters are just more talented than we’ve seen from them so far. Martinez probably isn’t going to slug nearly .700 again, but he’s a more disciplined hitter than we’ve seen to this point. He’s also absolutely crushing the ball — a whopping 64 percent of his batted balls are hit hard, across from only seven percent soft contact. Benintendi and Devers are young, but considering what we know about them as prospects, better days should be on the horizon. Even the “bad” version of Benintendi we’ve seen so far has an OBP over .400 and a walk rate near 19 percent in the two-hole of the lineup right now.

Another dimension at play here is that the Boston Sports Injury Plague of 2018 seems to be nipping at the Red Sox heels. Xander Bogaerts hit the 15-day DL almost immediately, cracking a bone in his foot on an awkward slide into the Tampa Bay Rays’ dugout. While the Red Sox seemed to have lucked out in losing him for only about two weeks, the injury drudged up unfortunate memories of seeing about half the Boston Celtics’ roster end their seasons just a few days apart.

Bogaerts will be back soon, but he’s not the only player missing time, either: Eduardo Rodriguez only just returned, Drew Pomeranz is on the way, and Tyler Thornburg is… somewhere. Dustin Pedroia’s new bionic leg is still a work in progress, but he could be ready to go sometime early in May. Between Rodriguez, Pomeranz, and Pedroia, that’s about seven wins (per fWAR) from last year’s team currently sitting on the DL. No team makes it through the year without injuries, and the Red Sox will certainly see other guys miss games, but getting that group back will help.

There’s also the curious case of Mr. David Price, who has managed to make a sterling 2.25 ERA start to the season feel a little nerve-wracking. Three of Price’s four starts have been great, as he’s only allowed one run combined between them. Then there’s the New York start — on April 11, Price allowed four runs in only one inning before leaving the game due to numbness in his pitching hand. It seems that Price is fine, especially in an impressive follow-up performance Tuesday against Mike Trout and the Angels. Still, it was a weird injury that still hasn’t been fully explained, and further issues with Price could compromise what currently looks to be impressive depth in the starting rotation. Considering the city of Boston seems to be cursed by the Pagan God of Sports Injuries, it’s something that will have to sit in the back of fans’ minds for the time being.

These are all things that, in a vacuum, could lead to an even better Red Sox team in 2018 than we’ve seen so far. It’s certainly possible! Baseball, though, is famously not played in a vacuum. The most likely outcome for the Red Sox is probably some kind of middle ground. Some of the early standout performers will come down to Earth eventually, and some players we expect to perform well could underwhelm. These are normal things for any team in any season.

Teams that get off to this kind of start often have a lot of regression down to the mean ahead of them. The Red Sox are unique in that, despite being off to such a hot start, they seem to have nearly as much room to improve as they do to regress. They probably won’t win 86 percent of their games for the entire season, but with some better breaks in terms of health and performance, they may not slow down as much as one might expect. That could turn out to be the recipe for a very special 2018 Red Sox season.

Header photo by Kirby Lee — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Smart teams will trade any player if the return is right. You wouldn’t say Mookie Betts is available but if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout for Betts, you’d make that trade immediately. Swihart isn’t Trout and Swihart isn’t Betts either, so of course, listen to the offers. Swihart is 26 (has been for almost a week) and has played in just 116 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, with most of those coming in the minor leagues. He’s also out of options, meaning the team can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him for nothing to any team willing to snap him up. It seems, based on McAdam’s reporting, that there are many teams who would do just that. Swihart, then, will have to stay on the major league roster, or the Sox may as well deal him.

Depending on the return, perhaps they should. The roster is certainly set up to handle being Swihartless. Between Brock Holt and Deven Marrero, the entire infield and outfield are accounted for — not that Holt would play center or right field, but the team has three outfielders who could move around if someone was hurt, necessitating Brock Holt: Outfielder. Also, there’s Marco Hernandez, whose shoulder is still hurt but who should be back from the DL at some point. Probably. Maybe. We hope. When he does, he’s capable of playing all over the infield and hitting some as well. So what do the Red Sox need with a player like Swihart who offers more of the same?

Pardon me for getting all metaphysical and stuff on you, but maybe it’s not depth that the Red Sox should be searching for after all. The Red Sox possess perhaps the best and certainly the most versatile outfield in baseball. All three guys, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, and Mookie Betts, can play any outfield position, thank you very much. That means as long as two of them are healthy, all the Red Sox need is a left fielder, and they have that in J.D. Martinez. The numbers tell us Martinez is an atrocious outfielder, but he’s also relatively young and athletic, and has suffered from various injuries through the previous few seasons which could and likely did negatively impact his performance in the outfield, injuries which he’s since recovered from. But even if you can’t blame it on injuries and Martinez is that bad, if he’s that bad in the smallest outfield in baseball and only very occasionally then that’s fine.

In the infield, the Sox have two first basemen in Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez who can play second, short, or third, Xander Bogaerts who plays short but could play third if something catastrophic happened, and Rafael Devers who plays third so he can do catastrophic things to Yankee relief pitchers. Then there’s the aforementioned Marrero, Holt, and, eventually, Hernandez. But wait there’s more because when Dustin Pedroia comes back, that frees up Nunez to play all over the place as well.

Clearly the Red Sox have depth. They have depth for their depth. What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable. Hernandez is out and will be out for a while with no return date yet known. Pedroia should be back in May, but maybe not, and as long as he’s out Nunez will be stapled to second base (hopefully not literally), limiting his ability to provide depth. Marrero’s hitting is the inverse of his fielding, and as his fielding is very good, that makes his hitting very bad. Holt was once the poor man’s Ben Zobrist, but that was three-to-five concussions ago. How comfortable would you be with Marrero playing 30 games at third base, or Holt playing 45 at second? Or both simultaneously? Probably not very comfortable, nor should you be because, while they’re probably super nice guys, neither is good enough to be starting.

What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable.

The point is there are questions, perhaps too many questions to feel comfortable. Swihart is yet another question mark, but he’s a talented question mark, more talented than the rest of the group. Also, the Red Sox don’t have to hit on all their question marks. They only need one or two and they’ll have a very strong bench.

There’s two more reasons to hold on to Swihart, the most important of which is the utter lack of catching depth in the organization. The Sox don’t have a single catcher anywhere in their top 30 prospects and nothing playable in the upper minors. That means it’s Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon all the way, all year long. If one of those guys gets hurt, then the replacement is likely going to be someone who doesn’t have any business playing in the majors. Swihart offers something more than replacement level behind the plate.

That brings us to the last reason to hold on to Swihart: upside. This is the main argument often cited by Swihart fans. He was a top prospect as recently as April of 2015, when Sox Prospects had him ranked above Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, and Michael Kopech. He’s potentially an above average hitter, not just for a catcher but for the major leagues. He offers a bit of everything: power, speed, and average. It’s an enticing package.

He’s not 22 anymore though. He might yet attain what the prospect writers hoped for him, though his spring training heroics aren’t as much the biggest sign of that as the fact that his name can be penciled into the lineup for the first time in two seasons.

The great thing for the 2018 Red Sox is he doesn’t have to be better than Moncada and Kopech this season. If he can hit a bit while playing a bit, that’s enough. He’s likely a better hitter than Holt, and definitely a better hitter than Marrero, and certainly a better hitter than Leon. If he stays healthy, shows something at the plate, then he’s probably still an upgrade over Leon long term. That’s a valuable guy, and one the organization shouldn’t be rushing to get rid of, especially for a Triple-A reliever, a C+ prospect, or whatever small return they might receive.

If the Angels call about Mike Trout, though, they probably should do that one.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

The operative words in that last sentence are “up to”. Martinez has three opt-outs in the contract: one that comes after the second year, another that comes after the third, and the final one comes after the fourth. That seems a little odd at first, but it works well with what the Red Sox are currently working with in regards to their future. That sounds a little ominous, yes, but it’s not something that we’ve been in the dark about. The Red Sox’s plans for the next few years have been obvious, but the Martinez contract cemented them. This team currently has a well-established championship window, and it won’t last long into the next decade.

So let’s start with the details on Martinez’s contract. Martinez, if he plays through the entire contract, will earn $110 million. That comes with an “if” statement because, again, Martinez has three opt outs in the contract — one after two years, and another after three. He’ll earn $23.75 million in each of the first two years, and he’ll collect the same amount again in the third year if he decides to opt in. Martinez can choose to opt out after the fourth year as well, and he’ll potentially earn $19.35 million in that year and he’ll earn the same amount in the fifth year of the contract. The first two years are the only things you’re certain to get in this contract. That and dingers. Lots of dingers.

The major thing you should notice here is that Martinez’s contract is frontloaded. Unlike David Price’s contract, in which he’d see a raise to a $30 million average annual value if he opts in after 2018, Martinez would instead drop to that 19.35 number from earlier. It’s not a huge incentive to stick around, unless, say, the team is good. Plenty of players have stuck around to try and win with a certain team for less money. It’s not unheard of.

Problem is, when you look at what the 2020 Red Sox team could look like, you’re not likely to be encouraged by what you see. Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz are set to be free agents after 2018, and David Price could opt out and join them in the market if he doesn’t want to stay. 2019 is even more of a disaster when it comes to free agency, as Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Rick Porcello all become free agents as well. In 2020, you lose a major part of the young core, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. depart due to free agency, along with Carson Smith. That’s a lot of key players lost. As of this writing, the Red Sox will only have one player confirmed to be on the books with a non-rookie contract in 2021, and that’s Dustin Pedroia.

So there’s a lot of incentive here for Martinez to only look out for himself, and I don’t blame him one bit for it. Players should strive to earn the most they can. It also suggests a positive feedback loop for whenever the Red Sox start to take a step down from the level of the rest of the title contenders. If the Red Sox can’t sign their young stars to a few extensions, or keep some of their pending free agents, Martinez has no reason to stay. He can opt out after 2019 if everything falls apart, and go to a team like the Los Angeles Angels that desperately needs a designated hitter that’s not decrepit. He doesn’t need to have loyalty to Boston when it comes to other opportunities, and as a player, that’s a savvy business move. Can’t hate the hustle, y’know.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future, barring another free agent splurge. They’re no longer sitting on a hotbed of game-changing talent in the minors like they were a few years ago, and that hampers their ability to acquire players to make an impact on the major-league level, either through development or trades. It’s a bit reductionist, but this version of the Red Sox will only go as far as their extensions do, which isn’t much farther than 2020 right now. If the Red Sox do decide to dump money into the free agent market in the coming years, they might end up like the San Francisco Giants, who are trying to stay competitive in a very tough division despite having very little in the farm system. Whether that’s good or bad is all perspective at this point, since we don’t know how well the Giants will do in 2018, and staying relevant like that isn’t always a massive financial drain.

I’m not trying to be cynical here. Really. I’m not. This is what Dave Dombrowski’s been doing the last few offseasons. He’s been setting the team up for several runs deep into October since 2016 began. But even with Martinez now on the roster, the Red Sox could end up as the fourth-best team in the American League. The Yankees and Astros are juggernauts with a wealth of talent on the farm, and Cleveland’s pitching is still incredible — and they also have a lot of young talent, including the fifth-best prospect in baseball according to BP’s rankings. The window isn’t just somewhat short, but the obstacles are daunting as well. I’d gladly eat crow if it meant the Red Sox bulldozed through the other 29 teams, but realistically, it’s going to be tough, no matter what year they want to compete in.

The title window plan wasn’t unique nor a franchise secret, but I’ll admit it wasn’t exactly put out there for everyone to see. But there’s a downside to peaking like this, and it’s the inevitable drop that comes afterwards. Martinez’s contract is structured so he doesn’t have to stick around for that. His contract suggests he’s the last piece of the puzzle for the final few pushes, and then he can leave when he pleases. He doesn’t have to wait for the Red Sox to hit on high draft picks and shrewd international signings to reinforce their major league talent. That contract is one big exit strategy once the Red Sox start falling apart.

Maybe the Red Sox start handing out extensions like party favors, maybe guys like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers become legendarily good, and then maybe Martinez sticks around for the long haul. There’s definitely hope for long-term success. But for now, the title window is open with Martinez. When it shuts, though, it’ll come down hard and fast, and the Red Sox will have to find another way to get back to the top.

Photo by Joe Camporeale — USA TODAY Sports

That offseason, the Red Sox famously brought in future Hall of Fame pitcher and future Hall of Fame-level asshole Curt Schilling to, as it turned out, co-front the rotation. They also brought in Mark Bellhorn, Terry Francona, and maybe even more importantly, Keith Foulke. It was a murderer’s row of talent, from the front office on down. As it turned out, it was just barely enough to get past the Yankees in a second consecutive ALCS Game Seven. That was elation so high it lifted my ankles off the floor.

That two-year period where the Red Sox went from so close to winning to losing to so close to losing to winning represents certainly the most intense rivalry between two teams I’ve ever experienced or endured in my lifetime. And now, dear reader, 200 words into this, here is my point. The rivalry is back, my dudes! . It’s back! The Red Sox and the Yankees are the two best teams in the division, two of the three best in the AL and probably two of the best five or six in baseball. This season, this 2018, is going to be another huge brawl of a season. They got Severino, we got Sale. They got Judge, we got Betts. They got Stanton, we got JD. So I thought it might be instructive to look and see how these two teams stack up against each other, a tale-of-the-tape, if you will, or even if you won’t.

Let’s start here. PECOTA. The PECOTA projections are here and they are spectacular. Though maybe not if you’re the Red Sox. I’ve already detailed how the Sox individual projections maybe aren’t as positive as we’d wish they were, but in the end and as we all know, games are won on the field not inside spreadsheets. Which is good, because PECOTA has the Yankees finishing seven games up on the Sox after winning 96 games. By any measure, 89 wins for the Red Sox would be an unsuccessful season, but that’s where things stand as of now. FanGraphs does their own full season projections as well, and theirs are slightly more favorable to Boston (which makes them worth mentioning). They have the Sox at 93 wins, a game behind New York’s 94. Better, but not what we’re looking for.

So let’s go deeper. Let’s go position-by-position and see who has the advantage. I’ll give you the names and their projected WARP in parentheses.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (4.4) vs. Christian Vazquez (1.7)

This is one of the Yankees’ biggest advantages. Sanchez is, bizarrely as it is to say, perhaps as good a hitter as Judge. Vazquez is a fantastic defensive catcher, but at this point in his career, that’s mostly all he is.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

First Base

Greg Bird (1.5) vs. Moreland/Ramirez (combined 0.4)

We don’t really know what Greg Bird is as a player yet, but he was as highly touted as Judge was prior to the 2017 season, so there’s some nightmare fuel for Red Sox fans. He missed most of last season with an injury and didn’t hit well upon return, but he’s young and talented so much more is expected of him this season. Moreland is Moreland, and it’s still unclear to me why the Red Sox felt it necessary with a glut of talent available on the market, to give him a two year contract. Best case he and Hanley combine to form the two sides of a successful platoon, so that could happen. Or Hanley could remember that he’s actually a great hitter.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Push

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (0.1) vs. Dustin Pedroia (1.3)

Torres is yet another great Yankee prospect, but for now we don’t know what he is at the major league level. Pedroia is an aging middle infielder coming off of surgery. So who knows on either of these guys.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius (1.7) vs. Xander Bogaerts (1.4)

Ever since he’s put on the pinstripes, Gregorius has continued to get better. Over a similar timeframe Bogaerts’ numbers are going in the opposite direction. I’m still a Xander Believer though, more so than Gregorius who hacks at everything and seems like exactly the kind of hitter the juiced ball turns into something he isn’t.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Red Sox

Third Base

Brandon Drury (0.4) vs. Rafael Devers (1.8)

Drury is Gregorius with a more boring name. He’s got some pop but he doesn’t take walks and he’s not much beyond average defensively. That’s a fine profile for a team with Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, but it doesn’t move the needle much either way. Devers might be the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s that good.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Outfield

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton (3.9) vs. Andrew Benintendi (2.1)

Center Field: Aaron Hicks (1.2) vs. Jackie Bradley (1.0)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (4.0) vs. Mookie Betts (5.2)

We’re doing outfield together because this is getting long. The funny thing to me is that the Red Sox are a team built on the strength of their outfielders. Their best hitter and maybe their second best hitter are both outfielders. Their best fielders are outfielders. This is an outfield-heavy team. And yet, up against the Yankees, the strength of this Boston team falls back. The Yankees won’t be able to keep up with Boston defensively but they won’t be bad there, and what ground they lose there will more than be made up for with their bats. Good lord, those bats. The “ifs” here are health. The Red Sox players haven’t shown any predilection for missing games to injury, but Stanton and Hicks both have missed significant time over their careers.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Brett Gardner (1.8) vs. JD Martinez (2.9)

I don’t actually know who is going to DH for New York, so I picked the best Yankee projection not included in the above sections and put him here. That’s Gardner. But no leftover Yankee is going to hold a candle to J.D. Martinez in the hitting department.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

I was going to do the pitching staffs as well, but this has already gone on too long. We’ll leave that for next time. For now, the results. Counting the outfield as three separate positions, PECOTA has Yankees 6, Red Sox 3. I have Red Sox 4, Yankees 4 with 1 push.

Any way you slice this, and I’m sure Yankee fans would disagree with my analysis, it’s close. That we know. PECOTA shows that. FanGraphs shows that. Our eyes show that. It’s going to be another fun season. Buckle the heck up.