Christian Vazquez has suffered a broken right pinky finger and will need surgery, and the timeline for recovery from that is roughly six-to-eight weeks. With him out of the game, Sandy Leon will take the lion’s share of starts behind home plate, which leaves the position of backup catcher to the seldom-used Blake Swihart. For Swihart to actually see somewhat consistent time behind home plate — time that doesn’t involve him as a late-game replacement or as someone to catch warm-up pitches while either Vazquez or Leon gets their pads on — is actually surprising. From the beginning of the season, it was tough to visualize Swihart getting triple-digit innings actually, y’know, catching for a pitcher.

While this is something of a testament to the depth the Red Sox have, they really shouldn’t be getting much credit for it. If the Red Sox actually saw Swihart as a catcher first, they would’ve realized the redundancy of holding three catchers a long time before now. Instead, he’s been tried out at the corner infield positions and still run him out for a handful of innings in left field — a move that evokes flashbacks to how his 2016 season ended. So it would be stretching the truth to say the Red Sox saw him as a catcher first and not (however optimistically) a utility player coming off the bench. Swihart’s been taking up the 24th spot on the roster because the Red Sox ran out of options for him, and feel that he’s too valuable to let go, especially when his value is as low as it is. In that regard, they’re correct.

But the idea that the Red Sox kept Swihart as preparation for a Vazquez or Leon injury is naïve at best, and blind loyalty at worst. Third-string catchers can be had for a bucket of baseballs, and hell, Dan Butler is still on Pawtucket’s roster. He’d work just fine as a backup to the backup. Swihart’s there because the Red Sox thought his talent was too good to let go, not because the catcher tandem they had was somehow injury-prone. Catchers get nicked and dinged all year long, but outside of needing Tommy John surgery a few years ago, Vazquez wasn’t ever bitten by an injury bug until now. It’s simply bad luck for Vazquez, and a renewed chance to catch for Swihart. These things simply happen. But that’s enough fiery distrust of the Red Sox for one article.

Now we get to see what Blake Swihart is like when he actually plays catcher consistently, and quite frankly, this has been something long overdue from the former top prospect. Maybe there’s some post-post-sleeper hype in here, or maybe the talent doesn’t translate to productive skill. He’s got two months to show it, at the very least.

If we look at offensive production from the catcher position, the needle doesn’t really change much with Leon and Swihart. Neither Vazquez nor Swihart were offensive juggernauts, and the Red Sox were getting a combined .600 OPS from the position, good for 26th in the league. The bar’s set pretty low, all things considered. Going by history, Swihart’s supposedly a better hitter than Vazquez, so there’s a chance we could see a spark there. But that history is sourced from the last time he’s played a full season — over four years ago. Since 2015, Swihart’s had only 930 plate appearances in professional baseball. Outside of the second half of 2015, he’s had neither health nor consistency of playing time since then. I guess what I’m saying is that he’s one hell of a wild card when it comes to what he’ll do at the plate. He’s probably going to be mediocre, but I’m always here for a happy tale of an oft-injured player exceeding expectations and making it in big leagues. Expect little, but hope for a lot.

Defensively, well, things are a little more concrete there. Vazquez, as per usual, is an excellent defender, while Swihart has had issues with defending going back to his low minors days. He’s not a butcher, but calling him above average behind the plate is a little too optimistic for my tastes. Let’s just put this one down as “probably not going to be as good” and move on.

Look, you should be at least a little happy he’s going to get more time in the field at his original position, regardless of how or why he ended up in this situation. I’m definitely intrigued by it, and you should be too. He desperately needs the consistent playing time, and if that talent is still there, that might be all he needs. These next two months might just be Swihart’s only chance to stick with the Red Sox, and work his way back into their future plans, no matter how small or large that role might be.

Header photo courtesy of Troy Taormina — USA TODAY Sports

The performance of the pitching depth has been the most surprising, as Johnson and Hector Velazquez have combined to allow just two runs in 11.2 innings pitched. They’ve taken care of business where business needed to happen: in Florida, against both the Rays and the Marlins. Granted, we’re not talking turn-of-the-decade-Yankees juggernauts here, but outings like that are always very positive, especially in an environment where baseballs are being launched into the stands more than ever. Eduardo Rodriguez came back a little earlier than expected and had middling results for the first game, and with Drew Pomeranz still about a week away from returning, we’ll be seeing a little more of Johnson, with Velazquez in the bullpen for now.

On the position player side, that depth is about to get tested. Eduardo Nunez is a bench guy already playing due to Dustin Pedroia recovering from knee surgery, but as far as bench players getting a lot of playing time, he’s really the only one. That’s about to change, thanks to the weird, freak injury Xander Bogaerts suffered on Sunday. At first glance, it seemed like a rolled ankle or something just as innocuous, but it was a fair bit worse than that:

Red Sox announce Xander Bogaerts to DL with “small crack” in talus bone

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) April 9, 2018

Well, that’s a bummer. Thankfully, it’s looking like two weeks until Bogaerts returns. I really feel like crediting the Red Sox for actually letting Bogaerts heal up this time, but that seems like the sort of thing they should do in the first place, not let them play for three months with a bad wrist.

And so the Sox look for a stand-in. Deven Marrero is long gone, as he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks towards the end of Spring Training. Tzu-Wei Lin was called up to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, and he can play both middle infield positions, but he’ll probably take a backseat at shortstop to Eduardo Nunez, while he and Brock Holt trade off at second base. No one else can readily play shortstop for the Red Sox at the moment, and you can’t really count on Marco Hernandez showing up anytime soon, as he’s on the 60-day disabled list, and won’t appear in game action until the end of May. Mitch Moreland is strictly a first baseman, and Blake Swihart is a catcher with corner infield experience in a pinch. There’s not much past Nunez, Lin, and Holt for middle infielders, unless you want to go deep into the minors.

The quality of the middle infielders is just alright. I’d like to be higher on these guys, but we’ve seen their shortcomings. Nunez is fine, Holt is an uninspiring player nowadays, and there’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for Lin should he play a lot over the next couple weeks. I’d honestly like to see more Lin and less Holt, but I’ve been very down on Holt for a long while — with good reason! — so I feel that’s more of a personal preference. Either way, there’s going to be a lot of shuffling around second base.

The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence.

Injuries like this are really testing the Red Sox early on. It’s not a test to see if they can keep up their winning ways or production — they have above-average regulars at nearly every position. The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence. Bogaerts is a pretty healthy player, as he’s played 144 games or more in every season since he took hold of a starting job in 2014, so it’s not as if the Sox were lax in looking for a backup here. Bogaerts doesn’t often go down like this, and if it wasn’t already obvious, the “Bogaerts is soft!” complaint doesn’t really hold up.

The Red Sox were more prepared to cover for Pedroia’s absence instead, but with Bogaerts’ injury, it forces them to spread that depth thin across two positions, and potentially field someone like Holt for a not-inconsequential amount of time. That’s a sub-par outcome, for reasons including his poor production in the last two years. But this is what happens when depth is needed, especially for someone that really never needs a break — you’re forced to use guys who aren’t always cut out to be starters at certain positions. It’s times like this when you miss Marrero’s defense, even if that meant biting the bullet when it came to his offense.

This could all just be handwringing. It’s only two weeks or so! The Nunez-Holt-Lin hydra could perform spectacularly and emulate Johnson’s and Velazquez’s starts to the season. That is also possible! All of these players have had very notable runs of success before, for example: Brock Holt, 2015 American League All-Star. Personally, I’d fall on the pessimist side of things here, if only because I keep low expectations in general.

But this is why depth exists. None of them are supposed to be as good as the starter, or else they’d be, y’know, starting. The Red Sox are a stacked team with a lot of good players, and having one of the starting nine be “just alright” won’t trip them up, but it’s probably going to be a bit bland without Bogaerts out there. At least he’ll be back soon, and we can worry no more.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Smart teams will trade any player if the return is right. You wouldn’t say Mookie Betts is available but if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout for Betts, you’d make that trade immediately. Swihart isn’t Trout and Swihart isn’t Betts either, so of course, listen to the offers. Swihart is 26 (has been for almost a week) and has played in just 116 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, with most of those coming in the minor leagues. He’s also out of options, meaning the team can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him for nothing to any team willing to snap him up. It seems, based on McAdam’s reporting, that there are many teams who would do just that. Swihart, then, will have to stay on the major league roster, or the Sox may as well deal him.

Depending on the return, perhaps they should. The roster is certainly set up to handle being Swihartless. Between Brock Holt and Deven Marrero, the entire infield and outfield are accounted for — not that Holt would play center or right field, but the team has three outfielders who could move around if someone was hurt, necessitating Brock Holt: Outfielder. Also, there’s Marco Hernandez, whose shoulder is still hurt but who should be back from the DL at some point. Probably. Maybe. We hope. When he does, he’s capable of playing all over the infield and hitting some as well. So what do the Red Sox need with a player like Swihart who offers more of the same?

Pardon me for getting all metaphysical and stuff on you, but maybe it’s not depth that the Red Sox should be searching for after all. The Red Sox possess perhaps the best and certainly the most versatile outfield in baseball. All three guys, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, and Mookie Betts, can play any outfield position, thank you very much. That means as long as two of them are healthy, all the Red Sox need is a left fielder, and they have that in J.D. Martinez. The numbers tell us Martinez is an atrocious outfielder, but he’s also relatively young and athletic, and has suffered from various injuries through the previous few seasons which could and likely did negatively impact his performance in the outfield, injuries which he’s since recovered from. But even if you can’t blame it on injuries and Martinez is that bad, if he’s that bad in the smallest outfield in baseball and only very occasionally then that’s fine.

In the infield, the Sox have two first basemen in Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez who can play second, short, or third, Xander Bogaerts who plays short but could play third if something catastrophic happened, and Rafael Devers who plays third so he can do catastrophic things to Yankee relief pitchers. Then there’s the aforementioned Marrero, Holt, and, eventually, Hernandez. But wait there’s more because when Dustin Pedroia comes back, that frees up Nunez to play all over the place as well.

Clearly the Red Sox have depth. They have depth for their depth. What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable. Hernandez is out and will be out for a while with no return date yet known. Pedroia should be back in May, but maybe not, and as long as he’s out Nunez will be stapled to second base (hopefully not literally), limiting his ability to provide depth. Marrero’s hitting is the inverse of his fielding, and as his fielding is very good, that makes his hitting very bad. Holt was once the poor man’s Ben Zobrist, but that was three-to-five concussions ago. How comfortable would you be with Marrero playing 30 games at third base, or Holt playing 45 at second? Or both simultaneously? Probably not very comfortable, nor should you be because, while they’re probably super nice guys, neither is good enough to be starting.

What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable.

The point is there are questions, perhaps too many questions to feel comfortable. Swihart is yet another question mark, but he’s a talented question mark, more talented than the rest of the group. Also, the Red Sox don’t have to hit on all their question marks. They only need one or two and they’ll have a very strong bench.

There’s two more reasons to hold on to Swihart, the most important of which is the utter lack of catching depth in the organization. The Sox don’t have a single catcher anywhere in their top 30 prospects and nothing playable in the upper minors. That means it’s Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon all the way, all year long. If one of those guys gets hurt, then the replacement is likely going to be someone who doesn’t have any business playing in the majors. Swihart offers something more than replacement level behind the plate.

That brings us to the last reason to hold on to Swihart: upside. This is the main argument often cited by Swihart fans. He was a top prospect as recently as April of 2015, when Sox Prospects had him ranked above Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, and Michael Kopech. He’s potentially an above average hitter, not just for a catcher but for the major leagues. He offers a bit of everything: power, speed, and average. It’s an enticing package.

He’s not 22 anymore though. He might yet attain what the prospect writers hoped for him, though his spring training heroics aren’t as much the biggest sign of that as the fact that his name can be penciled into the lineup for the first time in two seasons.

The great thing for the 2018 Red Sox is he doesn’t have to be better than Moncada and Kopech this season. If he can hit a bit while playing a bit, that’s enough. He’s likely a better hitter than Holt, and definitely a better hitter than Marrero, and certainly a better hitter than Leon. If he stays healthy, shows something at the plate, then he’s probably still an upgrade over Leon long term. That’s a valuable guy, and one the organization shouldn’t be rushing to get rid of, especially for a Triple-A reliever, a C+ prospect, or whatever small return they might receive.

If the Angels call about Mike Trout, though, they probably should do that one.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Swihart had sky-high value at this time and was considered untouchable by many when it came to trade talks. Young catchers who could play the position defensively and could hit for average and pop were not a common commodity, and they still aren’t. At BP, we published three scouting reports on Swihart between August of 2013 and May of 2015. These reports were glowing. Scouts raved about his 60-grade FV glove and arm, as well as his 55-grade FV hit tool. Our own fantasy prospect guru Bret Sayre called him a “lock to stick at catcher long term and hit for a strong average” and ranked him the 31st-best fantasy prospect in baseball. He was Buster Posey-lite, with his potential impact being compared to good Jonathan Lucroy.

A lot can change in a little over 1000 days. For Swihart, his position has changed and then changed back again. His health has changed for the worse and is now close to his old form. His value has also changed. Swihart is no longer talked about as a sought after trade chip, but rather as a player fighting for his baseball life in Boston.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

If you haven’t seen the catastrophic video of Swihart’s ankle injury, consider yourself lucky and do not look it up. On June 4th, 2016 — while playing in left field of all places — Swihart severely sprained his ankle after running into the side wall at Fenway Park. The rest is history: he underwent surgery on August 15th and worked his way back to health by last spring. The positive news was evident, and Swihart was strong enough to battle for a spot on the team during spring training of this past year. Let’s agree not to rehash the poor decision to play him there in the first place.

WHAT WENT WRONG

It was probably a forgone conclusion that the just-recently-healthy catcher who had been moved around the diamond the year before would not be the favorite to make it out of camp as the backup catcher. So what though? He was healthy. That was what mattered. As the year wore on, he played at Triple-A, returning to catching part-time until it became evident that his ankle was still not right. He struggled at the plate and needed a DL stint to get his body right. It was in large part a lost year — the second such year in a row for the player. He was called up in September and played just 12 innings behind the dish. By this time many folks were doubting if he would ever be relevant again.

WHAT TO EXPECT

In many ways 2018 will be a make or break year for Swihart’s future as a member of the Red Sox. He is now as healthy as he has been since his injury initially occurred, which will be key as he battles to make the roster this spring. You see, Swihart is out of options. He either makes the team out of camp or he is on a different team. Luckily for Swihart and the Red Sox, things are finally starting to break right for the former prospect. This winter he was healthy enough to play in the Dominican Winter League, where he batted .407/.515/.481 over 33 PA while catching for the Leones del Escogido.

If I were Dave Dombrowski, I would take a long look at Swihart and try and find any reason at all to have him on the bench to start the year. Swihart has pedigree, he’s only 26 years old, and he’s actually healthy! He still has the most offensive upside out of all of the Red Sox catchers and he’s athletic enough to play other positions. The bat is what should be the selling point though. His offensive upside is far greater than that of Brock Holt, Devin Marrero, and Sandy Leon, who he is potentially competing against for a roster spot. I have long defended Swihart, and now see him as more underrated than ever. I don’t doubt that we haven’t seen his best yet as a player. If I were DD, I’d want to make sure that we do see his best in the future, and that it’s while he’s wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

This past season was certainly a difficult one for Holt on and off the field. The beloved bench bat, who has dealt with concussion issues over the years, missed time from late April until mid-July dealing with vertigo. There were times last year when I remember wondering if he would ever even play baseball again. As scary as that thought was for us fans, I imagine it was devastating for him. When Holt did return, he played his usual myriad of positions, but did so at the lowest level of his career. As we look to the 2018 season, there is a real argument to be made that the team would be better off without Holt.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

After getting back to the field on July 16th Holt didn’t miss any time for the remainder of the season. Just being able to stick with the team and not have to leave due to recurring vertigo was a victory for the player and the team. Oh, and the hair and smile were good all year.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Let’s begin with his batting line for the season. Over 64 games and 164 PA, Holt slashed .200/.305/.243 with zero home runs and just seven RBI. He was completely inept at the plate the entire season in a way that he had never shown us before. His .214 TAv was by far the lowest mark of his career, and overall, Holt was a detriment to the team offensively. Though he was once one of the strangest All-Stars in recent memory, Holt has never really created plus value with his bat. His offense has always been predicated on making contact.

The fact that John Farrell could trust Holt to play nearly every position on the field has always been his most valuable attribute. You knew you were going to get league average or worse offense, but there was little chance he would make a play that would kill you in the field. Holt wasn’t great, but simply solid all around the infield and in the corners of the outfield. After providing 6.7 FRAA in 2016 that number slipped to just 1.1 in 2017. The overall result was a player that was worth -0.2 WARP or -0.9 fWAR depending on which calculation you like best. Either way, negative WAR is not a good look.

WHAT TO EXPECT

I mentioned at the beginning how much his smile was worth and the Red Sox would be smart to move on from Brock Holt if they can find a trade partner. As the team looks at its potential bench for 2018, there are several more appealing options. Devin Marrero is a far superior defender in the infield and is out of options. Bryce Brentz, who was recently added to the 40-man roster, is a much better offensive player than Holt and is also out of options. Since the Red Sox have three guys who can play center field Brentz’s poor defense is no issue here. Sandy Leon, as long as he remains with the team, will take up a bench spot.

Perhaps the most interesting player who could replace Holt is Blake Swihart, who had .997 OPS in Dominican winter league ball. He is out of options and could surely be used all around the infield and in the outfield, although if I see him in the outfield again I might cry. The team could decide to try and shop one of the other players mentioned in order to get Sam Travis on the team. Travis, who mashes lefties, could make for an intriguing platoon partner for Mitch Moreland. All of this is to say that Holt might be too expensive and not good enough with either the glove or bat to warrant a spot on the team in 2018. It’s been a fun ride, but for the club and player, it’s probably time to get off.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

Leon exceeded (modest) expectations, and while he was never going to repeat his .310/.369/.476 stat line from 2016, he followed up his 2016 campaign with a season that looked more like what we should come to expect from Leon. It’s hard to package a year in which he took a significant step back offensively along with losing his starting spot as a positive thing, but there are some encouraging signs that Leon can continue to be productive in a specific role for the 2018 Red Sox.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Leon made something of a name for himself during his Red Sox tenure thanks to surprising flashes of competent hitting, but he was actually an excellent defensive catcher last year. His 5.5 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Replacement (Adjusted FRAA) was good for 13th best in all of baseball. It was an eight-run improvement from his 2016 Adjusted FRAA (-3.3). Most of his catching stats improved from last year, and you can look check them all out right here. He improved his framing and blocking significantly, and set a career high in runners thrown out (18). After posting a DRS of 3 in 600 innings over the 2016 season, Leon doubled that number last year, posting a DRS of 7 in only 100 more innings. Leon outperformed Christian Vasquez behind the plate in 2017, although whether that’s more of an indictment of Vasquez than an endorsement of Leon is worth wondering.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Leon went back to looking mortal at the plate. Like I mentioned at the top, his slashline dropped from .310/.369/.476 to .225/.290/.354. His wOBA plummeted almost 100 points and he lost 200 points on his OPS this season. He went back to being a significantly below-average offensive catcher, especially in the second half. After hitting .244/.291/.381 with a 72 wRC+ (which is by no means impressive, but tolerable when coupled with good defense) in the first half, Leon only hit .198/.289/.315 with a 60 wRC+ during the second half. During that same time, Christian Vasquez blossomed into one of the better hitters on the team, hitting .314/.359/.453 with a 115 wRC+ over 17o PAs. While the starting catcher battle figures to take place during Spring Training, it certainly felt like Vasquez finally took the reigns as the team’s catcher of the future during that stretch.

WHAT TO EXPECT

If there’s any silver linings for the Leon enthusiasts among you, it’s that many of the attributes that led to Leon’s career-best season in 2016 were still in his underwhelming 2017. Leon benefited from incredible amounts of luck in ’16, posting a .392 BABIP. That number dropped 100 points in 2017, and while a .280 BABIP looks more realistic for Leon, the catcher’s numbers look eerily similar across both seasons. He’s striking out and walking at the exact same rate. There were some signs of increasingly weaker contact, but overall, his batted ball numbers stayed relatively unchanged. His rate of contact stayed consistent, and he didn’t chase more pitches out of the zone. Put simply, the regression everyone and their mothers saw coming came.

Leon is a backup catcher. He’s not exceptional behind the plate, but he’s not unreliable either. He’s not much of a hitter, but he can hold his own at the bottom of the order. At this point, Christian Vasquez (or Blake Swihart? Anyone? Anyone?) should be the starting catcher, with Leon acting as the backup/Chris Sale’s personal backstop. His contract was tendered at the beginning of December, so it stands to reason that Leon will be back with the team this year. I don’t know if Christian Vasquez is a starting catcher, but I do know that Leon is a backup catcher, and for the short term, that works just fine for the Red Sox.

Photo by Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

(*Did you know he lives in Manhattan? It’s true!!!)

Before the deadline Vazquez was hitting .251/.291/.330 in 59 games (203 plate appearances). In the 19 games (66 plate appearances) since, he’s batting .426/.470/.672. Nobody is arguing Christian Vazquez is a true-talent .426 hitter or even a true-talent .326 hitter. Yes, his BABIP during that stretch is about a billion, but even so that’s quite a slash line for a guy who through parts of three seasons was a non-entity at the plate. And while we often use BABIP as a synonym for luck, it’s really a combination of luck and quality at-bats. Players run high BABIPs because hits fall in for them, but also because they are hitting the ball hard, barreling it up, hitting for line drives and high exit velocity. That isn’t luck, it’s skill.

So the real question is not, “is Christian Vazquez an MVP candidate?”, it’s “how much of this is a repeatable skill?”

For example, nobody was making an argument that Aaron Judge was getting lucky over the first few months of this season when he was an MVP candidate. Now that he’s fallen off significantly (thank Jehovah), the reason isn’t that all the weak pop-ups and infield grounders are no longer going for hits. It’s because he isn’t hitting the ball as well as he was before. The quality of his plate appearances has decreased significantly. The inverse is true of Vazquez (though over a much smaller sample). Vazquez is making better contact, striking out less, and even walking a bit. So the real question is not, “is Christian Vazquez an MVP candidate?”, it’s “how much of this is a repeatable skill?”

The short answer is some of it. Okay, so how much? We can start at the beginning. Vazquez is both young and old. He turned 27 years old 11 days ago, so he hardly counts as a prospect anymore. Still he’s only got 190 games played at the major league level, mostly owning to the fact that he missed all of the 2015 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Upon returning last year, didn’t hit or play particularly defense well enough to offset that and as such, spent almost half the 2016 season with Triple-A Pawtucket. Part of that could be attributed to recovering from the surgery, but then Vazquez had never been a particularly strong hitter before. In parts of eight minor league seasons Vazquez hit .266/.344/.390, perfectly fine for a catcher but certainly nothing to do a jig about. Still, the fact that Vazquez hasn’t had much experience at the major league level means we still don’t know quite as much about him as a player as maybe we think we do.

Still that doesn’t explain the crazy over 1.000 OPS he’s been putting up. I went back to look at his hitting mechanics to see if he’s changed anything.

Here he is in a game against Tampa Bay on September 25, 2016, where he went 1-for-4.

Here he is on August 1, 2017 in a game in Cleveland where he went 3-for-5 with a walk-off three run homer.

There are differences, but they’re not striking. The 2016 Vazquez holds his bat back a bit higher and seems to rest his weight more on his back leg, while the 2017 Vazquez rests his bat on his shoulder and seems to balance his weight a bit more. But even so both are pretty similar. The similarities are far greater than the differences to be sure.

As to the batted ball data, well, it’s kinda what you’d expect. Vazquez has had a higher BABIP over his hot streak, but he’s also been hitting the ball much harder than he has previously, as I said above. Players don’t tend to run huge BABIPs over long stretches of time, partly because the luck tends to even out and party because hitting that well for that long a period of time is incredibly difficult to do (see: Judge, Aaron), but Vazquez is doing his part to earn his high BABIP. He’s also doing the things you’d expect of a player on a hot streak: hitting lots of line drives, pulling the ball more than he typically does, and walking more while striking out less. The end result is a slash line that wouldn’t be out of place on Ted Williams’ resume.

But I still haven’t answered the real question here, and that’s because the real question is likely unanswerable. How good is Christian Vazquez? His bat is playing in a huge way now, but almost nobody is this good long term. Players have hot and cold streaks, and good players have hotter hot streaks and hotter cold streaks. Vazquez is having the first but we haven’t seen the second as of yet. He’ll cool off in time and that’s the true test of a great (or even good) hitter. Unless you’re Aaron Judge and pack a full MVP’s-worth of value into a half season, how your final line looks is dependent on not stinking it up for a month or two at a time.

Perhaps, for the Red Sox, the most important point is this: which catcher will play in the playoffs? For a team with few standout offensive performers this season, a well-timed hot streak by Vazquez would provide far more value in October than two months of hot offensive work in April and May followed by an ice age for the rest of the season. But even if Vazquez’s bat fails to show in the playoffs, the fact that his arm has returned to form and the value he provides from behind the plate is close to tops of the league has to provide the team some solace. After all, it was the defense that was supposed to be the carrying tool all along. Still, while it would be fun to end this on a grand pronouncement, Vazquez’s hot streak isn’t enough to tell us much beyond the streak itself isn’t wholly lucky. What he does with his bat after this ends is what will tell the story.

Photo by Rick Osentoski – USA TODAY Sports