Boston » Eduardo Nunez http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com Bringing BP-quality analysis to Boston Mon, 11 Mar 2019 11:30:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 Once More Unto The Depth http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/once-more-unto-the-depth/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/once-more-unto-the-depth/#comments Tue, 10 Apr 2018 13:00:45 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37636 The Red Sox, owners of a franchise-best 8-1 record so far, are looking excellent. The pitching has been stellar, the offense has sprung to life, and everything’s clicking all at once. Hanley Ramirez looks healthy and has been productive, David Price is doing great things, and even the backups in Eduardo Nunez and Brian Johnson have been rock solid. With all this optimism, it’s somewhat easy to forget that the Red Sox are really relying on their depth a lot in the early going.

The performance of the pitching depth has been the most surprising, as Johnson and Hector Velazquez have combined to allow just two runs in 11.2 innings pitched. They’ve taken care of business where business needed to happen: in Florida, against both the Rays and the Marlins. Granted, we’re not talking turn-of-the-decade-Yankees juggernauts here, but outings like that are always very positive, especially in an environment where baseballs are being launched into the stands more than ever. Eduardo Rodriguez came back a little earlier than expected and had middling results for the first game, and with Drew Pomeranz still about a week away from returning, we’ll be seeing a little more of Johnson, with Velazquez in the bullpen for now.

On the position player side, that depth is about to get tested. Eduardo Nunez is a bench guy already playing due to Dustin Pedroia recovering from knee surgery, but as far as bench players getting a lot of playing time, he’s really the only one. That’s about to change, thanks to the weird, freak injury Xander Bogaerts suffered on Sunday. At first glance, it seemed like a rolled ankle or something just as innocuous, but it was a fair bit worse than that:

Well, that’s a bummer. Thankfully, it’s looking like two weeks until Bogaerts returns. I really feel like crediting the Red Sox for actually letting Bogaerts heal up this time, but that seems like the sort of thing they should do in the first place, not let them play for three months with a bad wrist.

And so the Sox look for a stand-in. Deven Marrero is long gone, as he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks towards the end of Spring Training. Tzu-Wei Lin was called up to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, and he can play both middle infield positions, but he’ll probably take a backseat at shortstop to Eduardo Nunez, while he and Brock Holt trade off at second base. No one else can readily play shortstop for the Red Sox at the moment, and you can’t really count on Marco Hernandez showing up anytime soon, as he’s on the 60-day disabled list, and won’t appear in game action until the end of May. Mitch Moreland is strictly a first baseman, and Blake Swihart is a catcher with corner infield experience in a pinch. There’s not much past Nunez, Lin, and Holt for middle infielders, unless you want to go deep into the minors.

The quality of the middle infielders is just alright. I’d like to be higher on these guys, but we’ve seen their shortcomings. Nunez is fine, Holt is an uninspiring player nowadays, and there’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for Lin should he play a lot over the next couple weeks. I’d honestly like to see more Lin and less Holt, but I’ve been very down on Holt for a long while — with good reason! — so I feel that’s more of a personal preference. Either way, there’s going to be a lot of shuffling around second base.

The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence.

Injuries like this are really testing the Red Sox early on. It’s not a test to see if they can keep up their winning ways or production — they have above-average regulars at nearly every position. The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence. Bogaerts is a pretty healthy player, as he’s played 144 games or more in every season since he took hold of a starting job in 2014, so it’s not as if the Sox were lax in looking for a backup here. Bogaerts doesn’t often go down like this, and if it wasn’t already obvious, the “Bogaerts is soft!” complaint doesn’t really hold up.

The Red Sox were more prepared to cover for Pedroia’s absence instead, but with Bogaerts’ injury, it forces them to spread that depth thin across two positions, and potentially field someone like Holt for a not-inconsequential amount of time. That’s a sub-par outcome, for reasons including his poor production in the last two years. But this is what happens when depth is needed, especially for someone that really never needs a break — you’re forced to use guys who aren’t always cut out to be starters at certain positions. It’s times like this when you miss Marrero’s defense, even if that meant biting the bullet when it came to his offense.

This could all just be handwringing. It’s only two weeks or so! The Nunez-Holt-Lin hydra could perform spectacularly and emulate Johnson’s and Velazquez’s starts to the season. That is also possible! All of these players have had very notable runs of success before, for example: Brock Holt, 2015 American League All-Star. Personally, I’d fall on the pessimist side of things here, if only because I keep low expectations in general.

But this is why depth exists. None of them are supposed to be as good as the starter, or else they’d be, y’know, starting. The Red Sox are a stacked team with a lot of good players, and having one of the starting nine be “just alright” won’t trip them up, but it’s probably going to be a bit bland without Bogaerts out there. At least he’ll be back soon, and we can worry no more.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/once-more-unto-the-depth/feed/ 1 What Better Defense Means For Devers http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/22/what-better-defense-means-for-devers/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/22/what-better-defense-means-for-devers/#comments Thu, 22 Mar 2018 13:00:18 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36644 Recently, while buried in my phone in the middle of a very public place, I stumbled onto this tweet:

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/22/what-better-defense-means-for-devers/feed/ 0 The 2017 Roster Recap Compendium http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/13/the-2017-roster-recap-compendium/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/13/the-2017-roster-recap-compendium/#comments Tue, 13 Mar 2018 13:00:33 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36099 During the offseason, we here at BP Boston run a series called Roster Recaps, in which we detail the year that was for every player that graced the major league roster in 2017. Some you might vividly remember (Chris Sale!), while others you’ll struggle to recall what they did (Ben Taylor… ?). For the players in the latter category, we’ve got you covered. If you feel like looking back on some good times, we’ll accommodate you too.

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

RRvazquez

Catchers

RRdevers

Infielders

RRbenny

Outfielders

RRkimbrel

Pitchers

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/13/the-2017-roster-recap-compendium/feed/ 4 Blake Swihart and the Depth Chart http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/09/blake-swihart-and-the-depth-chart/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/09/blake-swihart-and-the-depth-chart/#comments Fri, 09 Mar 2018 14:00:40 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35950 Ignore for the moment that at least half of the leading hitters this spring are people you’ve never heard of and focus on the fact that you have heard of Blake Swihart. Swihart is hitting .700 or whatever it is this spring with a bunch of homers and doubles. He’s been quite good. Spring training stats are the fools’ gold of baseball. They mean nothing. Yet that doesn’t stop some people — sometimes even people with actual jobs working for actual baseball teams — from placing weight on them. Take Blake Swihart, for example. You see, according to Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal, the Red Sox have been “flooded with calls […] asking if Swihart is available in a trade.” Spicy!

Smart teams will trade any player if the return is right. You wouldn’t say Mookie Betts is available but if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout for Betts, you’d make that trade immediately. Swihart isn’t Trout and Swihart isn’t Betts either, so of course, listen to the offers. Swihart is 26 (has been for almost a week) and has played in just 116 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, with most of those coming in the minor leagues. He’s also out of options, meaning the team can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him for nothing to any team willing to snap him up. It seems, based on McAdam’s reporting, that there are many teams who would do just that. Swihart, then, will have to stay on the major league roster, or the Sox may as well deal him.

Depending on the return, perhaps they should. The roster is certainly set up to handle being Swihartless. Between Brock Holt and Deven Marrero, the entire infield and outfield are accounted for — not that Holt would play center or right field, but the team has three outfielders who could move around if someone was hurt, necessitating Brock Holt: Outfielder. Also, there’s Marco Hernandez, whose shoulder is still hurt but who should be back from the DL at some point. Probably. Maybe. We hope. When he does, he’s capable of playing all over the infield and hitting some as well. So what do the Red Sox need with a player like Swihart who offers more of the same?

Pardon me for getting all metaphysical and stuff on you, but maybe it’s not depth that the Red Sox should be searching for after all. The Red Sox possess perhaps the best and certainly the most versatile outfield in baseball. All three guys, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, and Mookie Betts, can play any outfield position, thank you very much. That means as long as two of them are healthy, all the Red Sox need is a left fielder, and they have that in J.D. Martinez. The numbers tell us Martinez is an atrocious outfielder, but he’s also relatively young and athletic, and has suffered from various injuries through the previous few seasons which could and likely did negatively impact his performance in the outfield, injuries which he’s since recovered from. But even if you can’t blame it on injuries and Martinez is that bad, if he’s that bad in the smallest outfield in baseball and only very occasionally then that’s fine.

In the infield, the Sox have two first basemen in Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez who can play second, short, or third, Xander Bogaerts who plays short but could play third if something catastrophic happened, and Rafael Devers who plays third so he can do catastrophic things to Yankee relief pitchers. Then there’s the aforementioned Marrero, Holt, and, eventually, Hernandez. But wait there’s more because when Dustin Pedroia comes back, that frees up Nunez to play all over the place as well.

Clearly the Red Sox have depth. They have depth for their depth. What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable. Hernandez is out and will be out for a while with no return date yet known. Pedroia should be back in May, but maybe not, and as long as he’s out Nunez will be stapled to second base (hopefully not literally), limiting his ability to provide depth. Marrero’s hitting is the inverse of his fielding, and as his fielding is very good, that makes his hitting very bad. Holt was once the poor man’s Ben Zobrist, but that was three-to-five concussions ago. How comfortable would you be with Marrero playing 30 games at third base, or Holt playing 45 at second? Or both simultaneously? Probably not very comfortable, nor should you be because, while they’re probably super nice guys, neither is good enough to be starting.

What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable.

The point is there are questions, perhaps too many questions to feel comfortable. Swihart is yet another question mark, but he’s a talented question mark, more talented than the rest of the group. Also, the Red Sox don’t have to hit on all their question marks. They only need one or two and they’ll have a very strong bench.

There’s two more reasons to hold on to Swihart, the most important of which is the utter lack of catching depth in the organization. The Sox don’t have a single catcher anywhere in their top 30 prospects and nothing playable in the upper minors. That means it’s Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon all the way, all year long. If one of those guys gets hurt, then the replacement is likely going to be someone who doesn’t have any business playing in the majors. Swihart offers something more than replacement level behind the plate.

That brings us to the last reason to hold on to Swihart: upside. This is the main argument often cited by Swihart fans. He was a top prospect as recently as April of 2015, when Sox Prospects had him ranked above Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, and Michael Kopech. He’s potentially an above average hitter, not just for a catcher but for the major leagues. He offers a bit of everything: power, speed, and average. It’s an enticing package.

He’s not 22 anymore though. He might yet attain what the prospect writers hoped for him, though his spring training heroics aren’t as much the biggest sign of that as the fact that his name can be penciled into the lineup for the first time in two seasons.

The great thing for the 2018 Red Sox is he doesn’t have to be better than Moncada and Kopech this season. If he can hit a bit while playing a bit, that’s enough. He’s likely a better hitter than Holt, and definitely a better hitter than Marrero, and certainly a better hitter than Leon. If he stays healthy, shows something at the plate, then he’s probably still an upgrade over Leon long term. That’s a valuable guy, and one the organization shouldn’t be rushing to get rid of, especially for a Triple-A reliever, a C+ prospect, or whatever small return they might receive.

If the Angels call about Mike Trout, though, they probably should do that one.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/09/blake-swihart-and-the-depth-chart/feed/ 3 The Satisfying Return of Eduardo Nunez http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/the-satisfying-return-of-eduardo-nunez/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/the-satisfying-return-of-eduardo-nunez/#comments Fri, 16 Feb 2018 14:00:08 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=34869 It’s that feeling when the sun comes up after a long night… in Antarctica. It’s the time you took your first solo drive in a car… after failing the test nine times. I could clog the front of this piece with a billion of these, but the point is we’ve come out of the shadows, friends. The offseason is not only over — the Sox are in Fort Myers after all — but the Red Sox have finally signed someone whose name does not rhyme with Ditch Doreland!

The

Red

Sox

have

signed

a

free

agennnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

n

n

n

n

n

[crawls out of well]

How about that! That’s not even a question, it’s a damn statement. How about that! I mean who even cares who they signed at this point. The name of the guy isn’t even important. Okay, fine, I should tell you who it is. It’s Eduardo Nunez. The Red Sox signed Eduardo Nunez to a one-year contract with a team option for a second season.

[marching band walks through]

[deeply breathes oxygen]

[marching band walks through again]

Oh god… oh god… it’s so… so good.

So here’s the thing. As I write this on Thursday night, I don’t know how much Nunez is getting paid. But, really, honestly, who gives a crap? It could be $4 million or it could be $12 million and it really doesn’t matter to anyone who isn’t Eduardo Nunez, his agent, his family, his heirs, their cats, or anyone in the Red Sox ownership group. After that, doesn’t matter. The difference between those two semi-randomly chosen numbers is a lot of actual money were we talking about real people, but this is baseball and these are baseball teams. The only difference to the Red Sox would be if it impacted their ability to bring in other talent, and the only way that would happen would be if the team was committed to not spending above the luxury tax threshold. But they’re not! Money schmoney! Whatevs! They’ll sign J.D. Martinez and, heck, Jake Arrieta too.*

*Which honestly they should do because why the heck not?

So it doesn’t matter what they’re paying him, and they have, according to reports, a second-year team option, so if things go well this year they can bring him back for 2019. If not, they don’t have to. That’s the good kind of option if you’re the team and/or you’re a Red Sox fan (maybe less so if you’re a player).

So far, so good for the Sox! They did a thing! But let’s talk about how Nunez fits on to the roster. His most obvious place is at second base while Dustin Pedroia convalesces from knee surgery. The Sox’s star second baseman could return early in the season, but this is major surgery he’s working his way back from, so you never know. It’s entirely possible it takes longer, and longer could mean months, and baseball season is long, but it’s not that long, ya know? A Sox team minus a legit starting second baseman could be dead and buried by the time Pedroia’s knee is up to the rigors of the sport. So Nunez will likely be first in line there.

Beyond second, there’s also third base, both literally and in this specific case, where the Red Sox will be starting 21-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers is a fantastic talent and much is expected of him, but at his age and experience level, you never know. Which is a nice way of saying he could be bad. If that happens, or if the kid hits the skids for a few weeks, it’s nice to have a competent replacement easily available in Nunez to give him a breather. Beyond holding down the fort for Pedroia and as Devers insurance, it’s always good to have someone who can step in and play if other areas of need should open up. Which, given this is baseball, seems likely.

So Nunez fits in pretty well on the roster as long as he’s willing to deal with the insecurity of not having a daily job in the lineup. And since he’s re-signed with Boston we can reasonably assume that he’s fine with that.

What can we expect from Eduardo in 2018? That’s a bit tougher to answer given the way his 2017 ended, that being getting carried off the field after hurting his knee in the ALDS against Houston. Now seems a good time to state that his signing this contract with Boston depends on him passing a physical, which, based on his injury, is no sure thing. But, for the purposes of this piece, lets assume that he’s healthy and passes his physical. In that case, Nunez was a three-win player each of the past two seasons. Thats quite a gem to have on the bench. That said, his 2017 was helped along by a Manny Ramirez-like slash line of .321/.353/.539 in 173 PAs with Boston. His .751 OPS in San Francisco before the trade is much closer to his career OPS of .735. That’s probably more in line with what should be expected of him. Eduardo Nunez is a nice player, defensively versatile and with some pop, but he’s probably not a .533 slugging percentage type of dude.

You might say, well “Matt” — if that is your real name — what if perhaps Fenway Park just fits with Nunez’s skillset better? What if he’s just a good fit at home in Boston, “Matt?” True, that could be it, but you’d have to explain why, if that’s the case, Nunez hit better on the road than he did in Boston during his brief time with the Sox. It’s possible that Nunez turned over a new leaf after coming to Boston, in a similar manner to J.D. Martinez when he got to Detroit or Jose Bautista when he got to Toronto. It’s possible. If so the Red Sox will have a tremendous deal on their hands whether they’re paying him $4 million a year or $12 million. But the likelihood is Nunez just got extremely hot. It was fun while it lasted, lots of fun in fact, but he’s probably going to fall back toward his career norms. And that’s totally fine. That’s great, even. That’s just dandy. Nunez is going to help to fill the hole left by Pedroia’s absence, and he’ll be there should anyone else fail or fall. That’s insurance. That’s depth. That’s the way a good team makes it through a long, grueling slog of a baseball season.

Eduardo Nunez makes the Red Sox better at whatever price. That’s something worth waiting for.

Photo by Ken Blaze — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/the-satisfying-return-of-eduardo-nunez/feed/ 0 Roster Recap: The Baffling Usage of Chris Young http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/03/roster-recap-the-baffling-usage-of-chris-young/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/03/roster-recap-the-baffling-usage-of-chris-young/#comments Wed, 03 Jan 2018 14:00:00 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=32547 Chris Young was signed to slug left-handed pitching. Seriously. That was probably mixed in with the wording in his contract. In 2016, he did perfectly fine. Young tortured lefties, started in a pinch, and for a decent part of the 2016 season, he was white-hot, and kept left field from being a complete black hole until Andrew Benintendi got called up. He did his job well.

2017? Well, things got worse for the outfielder. Young didn’t suffer any injuries that required a stint on the disabled list, but his performances instead suffered from an odd pattern of usage. He had his high points, of course, but the lowlights were more common, and there was a time where he actually started over Andrew Benintendi. Don’t worry, it was totally justified and wasn’t at all a waste of time for both players. Promise!

What Went Right

Well, his high points certainly were fun.

He put the Red Sox ahead in a 13-inning win in St. Louis. Young’s basically an unsung hero at this point.

Young also had two multi-HR games, which is pretty wild considering he had less than 300 plate appearances. He certainly made them count. The second-oldest outfielder on the team could still barrel it up just as well as the youngest of them, it seems.

What Went Wrong

You see those two highlights up there? Notice how the pitchers he’s facing are both right-handed. Young’s struggles can be attributed to facing more right-handers, and a not-so-spectacular performance against lefties compared to 2016. Last year, Young saw 144 PAs aginst RHP, and this year, it went up to 160. He had a .590 OPS against left-handed pitching as well, so no matter the handedness, Young was having issues. But it certainly doesn’t help when you can’t even be deployed correctly, or when your manager plays his hand too early and the opponent changes pitchers.

Also, for reasons related to rookie struggles (I assume), Young got starts over Benintendi midway through the season. Sure, some were against tough lefties, but Young ended up facing a fair few right-handed starters as well. As much as you want to give Young some playing time, you need to let your 22-year-old outfielder figure things out for himself. Maybe bench him for a day or two, but don’t predominately use Young over him for a substantial period of time. Benintendi’s track record shows that he’s too good a hitter for him to lose PAs to Chris Young. While Young is a useful bench piece, he’s not a starter anymore. Just let him be a bench guy. He didn’t need to be pressed into service like that.

While he saw a good amount of action in the first half, he didn’t do much once the All-Star break passed. Young wasn’t even on the ALDS roster until Eduardo Nunez’s knee broke down again. That’s how much they went away from him in the second half.

What To Expect

Not anything for the Red Sox, probably. Young’s contract ended once the 2017 season concluded, and the outfielder is now a free agent. The Red Sox could certainly bring him back if they wanted, but it’s not something they’ll focus on until the tail-end of the offseason. Bryce Brentz could step in and do his job if the Red Sox felt like using an in-house option, but they didn’t even bring up Brentz when the rosters expanded last season, so it makes you wonder if they’ll ever use him in the majors again.

Barring a surprise re-signing, 2017 looks like it’ll be Young’s final season in a Red Sox uniform. The man did his job, and that’s all you can really ask for from a player like him.

Photo by Thomas B. Shea — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/03/roster-recap-the-baffling-usage-of-chris-young/feed/ 0 Roster Recap: A Major Breakout for Tzu-Wei Lin http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/29/roster-recap-a-major-breakout-for-tzu-wei-lin/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/29/roster-recap-a-major-breakout-for-tzu-wei-lin/#comments Fri, 29 Dec 2017 14:00:31 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=32298 At the beginning of the year, Tzu-Wei Lin as regarded as a light-hitting infielder who struggled to hit but could play a few positions acceptably, which was seen as fairly disappointing for a guy who had a two-million-dollar signing bonus coming out of Taiwan. He had registered over 500 plate appearances as a Sea Dog with very little to show for it. Sure, he was only 23, and still had a few years to go until any chance of a wash out came up, but it wasn’t terribly promising.

Then everything changed. His approach and hitting profile improved dramatically, and thanks to a shortage of good third basemen, Lin soon found himself in the major leagues. For the few weeks he was on the team, he did fairly well. Wasn’t amazing, wasn’t terrible, but for a guy who had zero Triple-A plate appearances in his professional career by the time of his initial call-up, I’d say he did just fine. As a prospect, however, he blew past any and all expectations.

What Went Right

Jeff Paternostro saw something in him over a year ago on the Top 10 Prospects list($), and he noted his weakness for a good glove with a semblance of offensive tools, even if Lin continued to toil away at Double-A. Then he started making noise, and eventually got a spot on Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five series in mid-May, after Lin had 1. reduced his groundball rate by over 20 percent, 2. had recorded an Isolated Power mark more than triple his career number, and 3. brought his strikeout rate down to 18.5 percent — below the Eastern League average. As another month went by, Lin got even more attention. He got another blurb on the Fringe Five, and a few days before his call-up, Erich Rothmann praised his growth over at the main site($).

So, yes, he got some attention. That is a good thing. But why? Well, Eric Longenhagen observed several improvements to his stance and swing. He started using his lower body more in his swing — better footwork helps a lot here — and thanks to his good hand-eye coordination and contact skills, he’s been able to quickly add more power to it. Is he going to hit a ton of homers? Probably not. But I’m a sucker for middle infielders who can make contact like he does, especially when he can turn those long singles into doubles with his plus speed. Lin finally found his stroke.

On June 24th, Lin was called up to the major leagues as the Red Sox struggled to get any production out of third base. A couple days later, he got his first base hit in the majors. Three days after that, he crushed a ball that would’ve been a homer in a vast majority of other ballparks:

That swing and hit is emblematic of everything he’s done this year. The leg kick gets down to lock in the power, he turns on a middle-in fastball, and gives it enough loft to send it nearly 380 feet to right. Lin’s tenure with the club was one of the high points of the season, and it was all because everything went right.

What Went Wrong

Lin was eventually sent down on July 16th, after the Red Sox deemed Brock Holt healthy enough to play. His offensive explosion was toned down a bit as he had more time to face more advanced pitching — the walk and strikeout rates regressed, the grounders came back, and there were a lot of pop-ups. I don’t think any of us were expecting his .385 BABIP in the majors to hold up, even with his encouraging batted ball profile, so this was just natural regression. He still made good contact and whiffed only five percent of the time in Pawtucket. Other than that, nothing was really all that terrible.

What To Expect

Despite being buried on the depth chart by Holt, Marco Hernandez, Deven Marrero, and possibly the addition of another utility infielder (Eduardo Nunez, anyone?), Lin is closer to the majors than people realize. That’s a strange statement to make about a guy who has already been there, but with Hernandez’s shoulder, Holt’s general ineffectiveness, and Marrero’s allergy to any kind of offense, Lin is only an injury and a bad slump away from a roster spot. He’s still on the fringes of the 25-man at best right now, but it shouldn’t surprise you if we see him get a handful of plate appearances come mid-season, especially if he lights it up at Pawtucket. The Red Sox just might have something here.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/29/roster-recap-a-major-breakout-for-tzu-wei-lin/feed/ 0 Roster Recap: A Short Season For Marco Hernandez http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/12/roster-recap-a-short-season-for-marco-hernandez/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/12/roster-recap-a-short-season-for-marco-hernandez/#comments Tue, 12 Dec 2017 14:00:23 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=31412 A pleasant surprise off the bench in 2016, Marco Hernandez was expected to do a lot of the same in 2017 – hit a little, play around the infield, and be a solid major leaguer who could really shore up the Red Sox’s infield depth. He could’ve probably overtaken Brock Holt as the first man off the bench, had his season not ended on May 12th.

The Red Sox were forced to go through a lot of infielders in 2017, and Hernandez going down was one of the reasons why.

What Went Right

Not a lot, really. It’s hard to have good times when your season ended 60 plate appearances in, and you weren’t even on the Opening Day roster to begin with. But he did have one cool moment, way back at the tail-end of April, which started with Hernandez beating old friend Koji Uehara to first base to get himself an infield single:

And that culminated with Hernandez scoring the go-ahead run later that inning:

See, that’s pretty neat. Silver linings and all that.

What Went Wrong

Everything else.

He wasn’t on the 25-man roster for Opening Day because the Red Sox thought they needed Steve Selsky more than him, despite a good Grapefruit League showing by Hernandez. Then he was finally added to the roster when Xander Bogaerts went on the bereavement list.

A month later, Hernandez would have to be taken out of a game after hurting himself:

Seems innocuous, right? Just a little pinch in the shoulder? It wasn’t. He was put on the disabled list the next day with a left shoulder subluxation, and eight days after that, it was announced that he would need season-ending surgery on said shoulder. Poor Marco.

What To Expect

It’s hard to analyze Hernandez’s hitting in the majors with just 116 plate appearances total, but he can hit a bit with a little power mixed in there. His last stint in the minors came with a .309/.343/.444 slash line, so it’ll be a waste to have him stay there for much longer. He’ll probably pan out and be a solid major league contributor when all is said and done, provided he recovers well from surgery and he doesn’t get bounced off the roster for a worse player.

However, with Dustin Pedroia needing several months to recover from knee surgery, Hernandez is, as of today, the leading candidate to start in his place. The Red Sox have soured a little on Brock Holt, as they might’ve (finally!) realized that he can’t be a day-to-day starter. The other options at second base are Deven Marrero – a player who I’ve said the phrase “if he could only hit” about far too much – and Tzu-Wei Lin, who did well during his time in the majors in 2017, but will probably need more plate appearances in Pawtucket more than anything. With Eduardo Nunez coming back not a sure thing, Hernandez currently tops the depth chart at the keystone.

Had Pedroia been healthy, Hernandez might’ve faced the same outcome as he did in 2017: as the 26th man for a 25-man roster. With some playing time opening up, we’ll see more of him than we have in the past two seasons combined, and he’ll hopefully come out of it looking like a player with a little upside that won’t hurt you when he plays. He’s got the skills. Now he just needs the time to show them off.

Photo by Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/12/roster-recap-a-short-season-for-marco-hernandez/feed/ 0 Roster Recap: The “Underwhelming” Eduardo Nunez http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/09/roster-recap-the-underwhelming-eduardo-nunez/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/09/roster-recap-the-underwhelming-eduardo-nunez/#comments Thu, 09 Nov 2017 13:00:53 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=29608 We only got to spend over two months with Eduardo Nunez as a member of the Boston Red Sox, but they were memorable. He came out of the chute hotter than the Earth’s core, hitting .500/.542/.955 over his first five games in red socks, which included a thrilling walk-off groundout against the Royals and the start of his unbridled assault on Hanley Ramirez’s record for number-of-times-a-player’s-helmet-falls-off while doing regular baseball activities. His performance as a Red Sox was excellent and seemed to give the team a much-needed boost. The Red Sox won 11 of Nunez’s first 14 games with the team, including eight straight. While adding Nunez at the trade deadline was largely panned as underwhelming, it turned out to be a great fit that many would like to see again next year.

What Went Right in 2017

I will dig into a few details in a moment, but the number one positive in Nunez’s 2017 has to be getting traded from a team that was winning ~38 percent of its games and had no chance of making the playoffs to a first-place team that was on-pace for October play. What is that like for a player? One day you are coming to work with a mindset of playing out the string and the next you are in the midst of a race for the division-title. How do these guys flip that switch? Or are they ridiculously competitive enough that the difference isn’t really something they experience; they are just always grinding to win. In any case, Nunez flipped that switch if had to, and managed the transition well.

Nunez fit in well with the Red Sox’s lots-of-contact lineup, but he did it in a different way. Whereas most of the 2017 Red Sox hitters were patient, Nunez was up there swinging: he only worked six walks in his 173 PA. For a bit of perspective, Sam Travis matched Nunez’s six walks, but did so in 90 fewer trips to the dish. But don’t get too caught up in his walk total, Nunez’s lack of patience did not hurt his offense productivity. Lower the PA minimum to 170 and you’ll find the .305 TAv Nunez posted during his stint in Boston was the tenth-best mark in the AL last year. He had a different approach than many of the other guys in the lineup and it worked. When he saw a pitch to hit, he tended to take a hack, and often connected with authority. Another example of his productivity: in his time in Boston, he doubled up the home run total he posted with the Giants, taking eight balls out of the yard for the Red Sox. All told, Nunez was a treat at the plate. Mix his offense with his versatility on defense and speed on the bases, and it is easy to see why he quickly became a fan favorite.

What Went Wrong in 2017

We can talk about how despite offering versatility on defense, he wasn’t really a great defender at any of the spots he played, or how his aggressiveness on the base paths was often infuriating. Seriously, why do this? But the biggest downer of Nunez’s 2017 was the trouble with his knee that ended things early for him. The original (as far as I know) injury, a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) sprain, happened in early September during a game against the Rays. It kept him out of the lineup for 13 games, but, despite being cleared to play, he aggravated the injury during his second plate appearance, barely able to run to first base. In order to be ready for the playoffs he then went through a similar period of rest and rehab as he did after the initial injury, but upon return the results were the same, only coming in his first plate appearance rather than his second:

Ideally, adequate time away from playing does the knee some good, and Nunez can be playing at full strength next year.

Outlook for 2018

Nunez is a free agent this offseason. The combination of his ability to play multiple positions, hit for power, and provide speed on the base paths, as well as the haze surrounding Pedroia’s status for 2018, should make signing Nunez one of the top higher priorities in the offseason plan. However, all those assets that make him a good fit for the Red Sox likely means he can find a better situation elsewhere, such as one where Nunez does not need to worry about a franchise player returning after two months to reclaim his job, relegating Nunez to a bench role. A player like Eduardo Nunez should be able to find a stable starting job somewhere in the league, which will certainly be more attractive than the utility/10th-man role he would ultimately have in Boston.

Of course, everything with Nunez hinges on the condition of his knee. Nunez and the Red Sox medical staff twice deemed his knee healthy enough to play, but both times he ended up in a crumpled heap along the first base line. That is concerning. But the Red Sox are the team most likely to have up-to-date information on Nunez’s knee. If they think he can be back healthy – without rushing him to do so – then I would love to see him back in a Red Sox uniform. But, as I said above, if he is fully healthy, I think he will end up signing somewhere else. Let the Marco Hernandez era begin!

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/09/roster-recap-the-underwhelming-eduardo-nunez/feed/ 0 Upswings in a Down Offense http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/upswings-in-a-down-offense/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/upswings-in-a-down-offense/#comments Tue, 17 Oct 2017 13:00:31 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=28401 So, last week I talked about the Red Sox’s silver linings during the ALDS against the Astros. There were a few, and in a surprising turn, the team left us with an optimistic view on the future. You’ve got a bunch of young guys who looked to be underachieving at the plate, along a strong pitching staff that, with a little more health, could dominate next year. There’s a lot to look forward to, especially when you see how the young nuclei of other top teams have blossomed. You can only hope the Red Sox’s core does the same, and they’re certainly on the same path.

In that same piece, however, I did offer up a scapegoat for 2017 failures in the form of the disappointing offense. Compared to 2016, the Red Sox offense plummeted, finishing at 23rd in the league in True Average with a .254 mark in 2017 after posting a .269 mark the previous year, which was good for sixth-best in the league. Several Red Sox regulars saw not-insignificant drops in their production, with the most glaring examples being Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez. But you’ve probably read it all, so that’s enough about the disappointments, because even I’m getting frustrated at remembering the futility. Believe it or not, there were a few position players on the Red Sox who defied the team’s anemic offensive trends and really stood out amongst a season of cold lumber.

Andrew Benintendi

How do you follow up an impressive September? You establish a baseline as a slightly-above-average hitter, and record a 20-20 season at age 23. It helps when you start hitting the ball even harder than you did in your cup of coffee the season before. Remember when there were rumblings that he’d be platooned with Chris Young for the majority of the year? Me neither.

It’s hard to get a handle on someone who hasn’t even had 800 plate appearances at the major league level, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anything that you’d consider bad. He’s walking at a great clip and not posting exorbitant strikeout numbers, all while making slightly more contact in the zone. Back in his 2016 stint, pitchers tried to beat him with fastballs, but he’s turned around on them much more in 2017 to the point where he’s not getting first-pitch strikes as much as he used to.

Benny didn’t getting caught up in the home run craze that’s sweeping the league, but there are other paths to the upper echelon of hitters that don’t require a dinger every third game. The Red Sox will be more than happy with an above-average hitter manning left field for the foreseeable future, especially one as polished as Benintendi.

Christian Vazquez

The phrase “if he could only hit” has been uttered far too many times when it comes to glove-first fielders. For a while, Vazquez was the poster child for that phrase when it came to the Red Sox. He wasn’t ever a prolific hitter in the minors at any level, and that didn’t change upon reaching the majors. This year, however, things were finally looking up for him when it came to the bat.

You’re probably tired of seeing that highlight, but man, that really is a majestic home run.

With the Red Sox emphasizing contact over power, Vazquez slapped the ball around this year, slashing .290/.330/.405 in 345 PA. His share of plate appearances should increase in 2018, especially after a year where he seemingly took a step forward with the bat. I say seemingly here because if you look under the hood, things don’t seem as progressive. In 2014, Vazquez had a .239 TAv in 200 PA despite slashing .240/.308/.309, and TAv wasn’t too kind to him here either, giving him a paltry .244 mark despite clearly better numbers. It looks like TAv sees that .290 batting average as empty, and I can’t disagree, even if it was a good year by the catcher’s standards.

Despite the decent numbers Vazquez posted this year, they could end up being a mirage. Apart from a few more fly balls, Vazquez’s batted ball distribution hasn’t dramatically changed enough to make this outcome repeatable, and he’s not hitting the ball harder or softer than he usually does either. His .348 BABIP is more a cause for concern here, as it seems a result of pure luck more than anything else. The most likely conclusion here is that this was a more positive outcome than expected, and a repeat would be unlikely. Vazquez isn’t a bad player, but his bat isn’t likely to stay this good. But if he’s so keen on keeping his TAv around .240, I’d rather take this year’s empty .290 average version of Vazquez than the .240 one.

Eduardo Nunez & Rafael Devers

These two had to be grouped because they were both excellent hitters in 2017, but combined, they had just 410 PA in a Red Sox uniform. So the obvious expectation is that you want them to keep on being good, but you don’t really know what to expect.

Let’s start with Nunez. When he came to Fenway, he knew exactly how he wanted to hit in that ballpark. He pulled the ball more, hit it in the air more frequently, and somehow started hitting the ball harder more often. We’re all familiar with Nunez as a hitter over his career: he swings a lot, doesn’t walk, and has a modicum of power in his bat. His memorable time on the Red Sox is what happens when you fine-tune that approach to a ballpark friendly to right-handed hitters. There’s nothing glaringly unsustainable about his peripherals, but it’s also really hard to imagine him getting more than 300 PA next year outside of stepping in for injuries. So he’ll probably still be good – not excellent, just good – in a limited role, if the Red Sox do indeed re-sign him.

And now we get to Devers.

Devers has registered 240 PA in the majors and put up an ISO of .198. Of the Red Sox players with over 150 PA in 2017, he’s third with a .275 TAv, behind Nunez and Betts. He’ll be 21 come Opening Day. Sure, he’s got a few things to work on – the strikeout rate’s a bit crazy, he’s not exactly hitting a ton of liners, and he needs to stop swinging at stuff outside the zone so much – but we’re also talking about a kid who can’t even buy beer and he’s already squaring up nigh-unhittable pitches.

He’s gonna be good and fun, and of all the diamonds found in this season’s rough offense, Devers might shine the brightest.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

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