April wasn’t the best month for Benny. He couldn’t get anything in the air (44 percent groundball rate) nor could he do anything with the fly balls he did hit (3.7 percent HR/FB rate), and those two teamed up to bring about Stone Age levels of power from the outfielder. Compounding this was the fact that Benintendi seemed more passive than patient at the plate to begin with. It’s not a bad thing to take pitches, not at all — it’s a bad thing when you’re taking hittable pitches, much less pitches you can drive. It’s nice that your OBP is .350, but with context like, say, an OPS of .740, it doesn’t look so pristine. That was his reality in April. Nothing looked terrible, just mediocre. But mediocre is a disappointment for someone with Benintendi’s potential, especially after what he had shown over the last eight-to-nine months of baseball in the major leagues.

It was more than a little worrying at first, especially when it came to thinking about how the season would go — the Red Sox could certainly boast that they had the best outfield unit in the majors, sure, but when Jackie Bradley Jr. can’t hit and Benintendi looks more content with passivity than action in his plate appearances, it definitely doesn’t look that way, no matter how many dingers J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts combine for. When it came to the offense, no one really expected Bradley to hit, but Benintendi? He needed to hit, as a very polished 23-year-old who just had a 20-20 season. The defense, though? Still good. Baserunning? Still a dumpster fire. At least those two aspects stayed that way, so you knew what you were getting with those.

But here we are on June 12th, and no one’s worried anymore.

Benintendi was a force of nature in May, pulling off a stunning rebound from his docile April self. He got a lot more balls in the air (45 percent fly ball rate), did more damage with them (14 percent HR/FB rate), and damn near doubled his power output, seeing his Isolated Power mark rise from .174 to .284. Statcast is still a huge fan of his, as he’s now 17th in the league in average exit velocity, and his 18 barrels are good for 8th. That homer above? That was a barreled baseball that got sent 437 feet. Benintendi is hitting something classified as “hard-hit” over 33 percent of the time. On average, every third batted ball is smoked. The kid is alright, it seems.

I’d like to say there was a deeper, number-crunching analysis of why he’s doing so well now as compared to the first month of the season, but he’s simply hitting the ball harder again, and not taking as many of the pitches he’s now crushing. Being a good hitter isn’t just waiting for a pitch — it’s also capitalizing on that pitch once you get it, be it a fastball in the wheelhouse or a slider that just won’t slide all the way across. Benintendi seems to have realized that, and has proceeded to make good contact and drive the ball once again. It’s not like this sudden surge of excellence was unexpected either, since his exit velocity and launch angle have been steadily increasing per season. He’s steadily upped the exit velo at least one mile per hour for each year he’s been in the majors, and his launch angle has been trending upwards as well. Take a look, y’all:

This is what Benintendi’s launch angle looked like 2017. Not a ton of hits in the 10-to-30 degree range, but the whole team had power issues last year, so he’s not alone in that. In 2018, however, he’s brought the rain:

That’s more like it. He’s getting some loud, hard contact in there now, and it’s starting to show.

Not only is the quality of the contact improving, everything else is coming along with it. Remember that passivity I talked about? Well, now he’s walking 12 percent of the time again, and he’s kept up the power numbers while doing that. June’s numbers are squarely in the small sample size camp, but you can’t help but be giddy when you see that beautiful .390 ISO under Benintendi’s name for the month. He’s back, and better than ever.

The best part is that even with his recent surge, he’s not really at risk of some regression. The vast majority of what he’s done and currently doing is pretty sustainable for him. His BABIP recently has been fairly normal, and his HR/FB rate isn’t some gaudy 25 percent or anything — it’s just a couple percentage points above what he did last year. Compared to last year, the one thing he’s done substantially more of is swing more often at pitches in the zone, which, considering his last six weeks, has been a boon so far.

Maybe Benintendi’s just a slow starter. We haven’t seen enough of his Aprils to really know. But it sure is nice to have him back on track to being that outfielder we thought he could be. There are few things sweeter in baseball than a smooth, left-handed swing, and seeing Benintendi’s knock a few baseballs over the fence again just makes it that much better.

Header photo by Tommy Gilligan — USA TODAY Sports

So how are the Red Sox lining up on defense? How do they compare against not only other teams, but their own teammates? Let’s take a look.

LEFT FIELD

In left, Benintendi’s and J.D. Martinez’s positioning is pretty similar. And when I say pretty similar, what I mean is that it is almost completely identical. Here’s how they look:

Don’t waste your time squinting and trying to decipher the two. You will get a headache from staring at the screen, not be able to fall asleep, and I don’t want that on my conscience.

On a larger scale, the Red Sox play a shallow left field. The average left fielder plays at a depth of 294 ft. Martinez plays at 290 feet, and Benintendi sets up shop at 289. Of 52 players who have been in left for at least 100 plate appearances, only Cincinnati’s Jesse Winkler plays a more shallow left field than Benintendi. That’s a not-insignificant difference, but then you remember that there’s a gigantic green wall in left field at Fenway Park and things start to make some more sense. There’s no gigantic green wall in Cincinnati, so I’m not really sure what Winkler’s excuse is.

CENTER FIELD

Here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Benintendi and JBJ are the only qualified centerfielders for the Sox, and their position could not be any more different:

For starters, you can see two dots! That is encouraging. As you might have guessed, that shallow dot is Andrew Benintendi. While the average centerfielder plays at 316 feet, Benintendi lines up at 308. Once again, it is the second-most shallow position of any qualified center fielder, this time behind the White Sox’ Adam Engel. Whether it’s his choice or something the coaches are telling him, it’s fascinating to see that Benintendi plays one of the most shallow outfields in baseball.

The deeper dot, obviously, is Jackie Bradley Jr. He still plays more shallow than the average center fielder, with JBJ settling in at 312 feet. Of the 48 qualified CF’s, JBJ’s depth puts him at 38. It gets even more interesting when you turn the calendar back a year and see that in 2017, he was setting up at 326 feet. He’s playing nearly five yards more shallow this season, which seems… dramatic.

Worried about the Red Sox shallow-playing tendencies? Don’t be. If you take a look at who JBJ is grouped with, you’ll notice names like Engel, Buxton, Marisnick, and Hamilton. What do all those names have in common? All four are in the top half of MLB’s fastest center fielders. In fact, Buxton, Engel, and Hamilton make up three of the top four. You can’t teach speed, and the wheels that the aforementioned players posses allow them to cheat in a little more than others normally would. If anything, it should be noted how impressive it is that Bradley plays a shallow center field with positionally-average speed. He doesn’t need the game-changing speed that the other players at his depth do to make the same catches.

JBJ also plays the ball as straight up as straight up can be. Of those 48 qualified CFs, only three set up at an exact zero-degree angle. I’m not entirely sure how important that actually is, but being only one of three fielders to do it seems noteworthy. To be honest I’m not sure any Red Sox fan cares what angle he lines up at if he keeps making absurd diving catches once every two innings.

RIGHT FIELD

Since there’s only one qualified Red Sox right fielder, here’s how Mookie Betts lines up against the rest of baseball:

Considering how cavernous Fenway’s right field is, it’s fascinating that Betts plays so shallow and center. He sets up at 279 feet, far far below the MLB average of 293. He also shades farther into center field than any other right fielder in baseball, standing at a 25 degree angle. The only other player that comes close to that is San Diego’s Travis Jankowski, who makes up for his dramatic angle by playing the deepest right field in baseball. Whatever the reasoning is, it’s working for Mookie. Betts currently ranks sixth in baseball with five outs above average. His Catch Percentage Added sits right at six percent, which is good for 11th-best in baseball. Add in the rest of what he’s doing this year, and Mookie can do whatever he wants and line up wherever he wants. He’ll still get the job done.

Header photo by Richard Mackson — USA TODAY Sports

As an aside, I'm all set with Jackie Bradley Jr. As a 4th outfielder and defensive replacement? Sure. But any desire to put him out their regularly should be reassessed 5 minutes ago

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) May 6, 2018

If Rule Number One of Twitter is Never Tweet, Rule Number Two is Don’t Get Mad At Dumb Sports Tweets. I am not good at following either of those — that’s my cross to bear — but good grief this tweet sucks extremely hard.

First, some facts:

1. Jackie Bradley Jr. is 28 years old.
2. Jackie Bradley Jr. is not a great hitter.
3. It does not matter.

JBJ’s is in his sixth year at the MLB-level, and at this point, we know what kind of hitter he is. Sure, hitting .178/.264/.271 through the first 30-something games of the season looks bad. It is bad. But you know why it doesn’t really matter?

JBJ makes these plays with remarkable regularity. On any given night, there’s not a centerfielder in baseball with better odds at ending up on the 11 pm SportsCenter.

I’d love it if JBJ was a good hitter. When he is hitting, there aren’t many more complete players in baseball. With that said, the idea that he’s going to put it together finally and slash something like .310/.360/.534 should be buried deep, deep in the dirt and left there for good.

At 28, what we’re seeing is what we’re going to get. A piece about aging curves in baseball was published in the Hardball Times back in 2009, and take a look at what they found:

Granted, this study was released almost a decade ago, but I’d bet the results aren’t that much different today. Essentially, JBJ is currently in the middle of what should be his career’s peak. Being one of the worst hitters in baseball during what is supposed to be a peak season is frustrating, but JBJ’s just as likely to play at an MVP level over the next 30 games as he is continue this slump. That’s what he’s done, that’s what he’s doing, and that’s what he’s going to do. Besides, none of that really matters because of this:

The Red Sox don’t need JBJ to hit in order to win. There are a half-dozen players on their 25-man roster whose offensive performance matters more. Of all Red Sox hitters who had at least 400 plate appearances in 2017, no one was worse offensively than Bradley was. Even with that being true, JBJ, by WAR, was the third-most valuable position player on the team. Why? Because of shenanigans like this:

Frustration with Bradley’s inconsistency is nothing new. Defending his streakiness isn’t exactly an analytic breakthrough either. But on deeply talented offensive team with 3-4 elite power hitters, it’s time to stop being frustrated that JBJ isn’t one of them.

He’s not a great hitter, but he’s not a 4th outfielder or defensive replacement. He’s a streaky hitter who carries his weight by making catches like this once a week:

And that should be enough.

Header photo by Richard Mackson — USA TODAY Sports

Take a look at our baserunning data and you’ll see just what I’m talking about. The 2017 Sox were one of the worst baserunning teams in baseball. You probably already knew that from, you know, watching them ignore stop signs at 3rd ten thousand times last season, but the numbers back it up too. Of all 30 MLB teams, only 10 had worse BRRs (BaseRunnning Runs) than the Red Sox last year.  The team posted a -3.5 BRR, stuck right between Baltimore and Cleveland — though it could have been worse, as Detroit posted a -12.5 BRR.

When I was brainstorming probable culprits for the team’s underwhelming numbers on the basepaths, the usual names floated through my head. Dustin Pedroia was the worst baserunner for the Sox last year. Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon weren’t far off. Their struggles were definitely not Mookie Betts’ fault.

This year, the data looks a little different. After finishing as the third-best baserunner (based on BRR) on the team in 2017, JBJ shares the lowest BRR with Mitch Moreland through the first two weeks. In fact, JBJ and Moreland are the only two players on the team to have cost them a full run (-1.0). Based on that number, JBJ has been one of the worst 20 baserunners in baseball this season.

So what’s happening? To start, JBJ hasn’t done nearly as good a job of advancing on hits. After posting the third-best hit advancement runs (HAR) on the team in 2017 (0.86), he’s currently 11th (-0.25) out of the 14 qualified hitters on the Red Sox roster. What’s worse is that he’s had the second-most opportunities to advance on hits of anyone on the team so far.

It’s early. Bradley’s only gotten a handful of opportunities on the basepaths so far, and things are bound to change as numbers start to normalize over the next three or four weeks. Hell, even with JBJ not being great on advancement opportunities right now, the Red Sox are still a top-3 team in HAR right now (god bless you, Xander).

Opening the season in a slump is certainly going to play a role as well. You’re obviously not going to get a lot of chances on the bases when you’re hitting .191/.296/.255. But as is tradition, he’ll get hot, be the best hitter on the team for two weeks, and I bet his baserunning stats look just fine when that happens.

Still, they haven’t been good so far. And that’s something to keep an eye on.

Header photo by Kirby Lee — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

The operative words in that last sentence are “up to”. Martinez has three opt-outs in the contract: one that comes after the second year, another that comes after the third, and the final one comes after the fourth. That seems a little odd at first, but it works well with what the Red Sox are currently working with in regards to their future. That sounds a little ominous, yes, but it’s not something that we’ve been in the dark about. The Red Sox’s plans for the next few years have been obvious, but the Martinez contract cemented them. This team currently has a well-established championship window, and it won’t last long into the next decade.

So let’s start with the details on Martinez’s contract. Martinez, if he plays through the entire contract, will earn $110 million. That comes with an “if” statement because, again, Martinez has three opt outs in the contract — one after two years, and another after three. He’ll earn $23.75 million in each of the first two years, and he’ll collect the same amount again in the third year if he decides to opt in. Martinez can choose to opt out after the fourth year as well, and he’ll potentially earn $19.35 million in that year and he’ll earn the same amount in the fifth year of the contract. The first two years are the only things you’re certain to get in this contract. That and dingers. Lots of dingers.

The major thing you should notice here is that Martinez’s contract is frontloaded. Unlike David Price’s contract, in which he’d see a raise to a $30 million average annual value if he opts in after 2018, Martinez would instead drop to that 19.35 number from earlier. It’s not a huge incentive to stick around, unless, say, the team is good. Plenty of players have stuck around to try and win with a certain team for less money. It’s not unheard of.

Problem is, when you look at what the 2020 Red Sox team could look like, you’re not likely to be encouraged by what you see. Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz are set to be free agents after 2018, and David Price could opt out and join them in the market if he doesn’t want to stay. 2019 is even more of a disaster when it comes to free agency, as Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Rick Porcello all become free agents as well. In 2020, you lose a major part of the young core, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. depart due to free agency, along with Carson Smith. That’s a lot of key players lost. As of this writing, the Red Sox will only have one player confirmed to be on the books with a non-rookie contract in 2021, and that’s Dustin Pedroia.

So there’s a lot of incentive here for Martinez to only look out for himself, and I don’t blame him one bit for it. Players should strive to earn the most they can. It also suggests a positive feedback loop for whenever the Red Sox start to take a step down from the level of the rest of the title contenders. If the Red Sox can’t sign their young stars to a few extensions, or keep some of their pending free agents, Martinez has no reason to stay. He can opt out after 2019 if everything falls apart, and go to a team like the Los Angeles Angels that desperately needs a designated hitter that’s not decrepit. He doesn’t need to have loyalty to Boston when it comes to other opportunities, and as a player, that’s a savvy business move. Can’t hate the hustle, y’know.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future, barring another free agent splurge. They’re no longer sitting on a hotbed of game-changing talent in the minors like they were a few years ago, and that hampers their ability to acquire players to make an impact on the major-league level, either through development or trades. It’s a bit reductionist, but this version of the Red Sox will only go as far as their extensions do, which isn’t much farther than 2020 right now. If the Red Sox do decide to dump money into the free agent market in the coming years, they might end up like the San Francisco Giants, who are trying to stay competitive in a very tough division despite having very little in the farm system. Whether that’s good or bad is all perspective at this point, since we don’t know how well the Giants will do in 2018, and staying relevant like that isn’t always a massive financial drain.

I’m not trying to be cynical here. Really. I’m not. This is what Dave Dombrowski’s been doing the last few offseasons. He’s been setting the team up for several runs deep into October since 2016 began. But even with Martinez now on the roster, the Red Sox could end up as the fourth-best team in the American League. The Yankees and Astros are juggernauts with a wealth of talent on the farm, and Cleveland’s pitching is still incredible — and they also have a lot of young talent, including the fifth-best prospect in baseball according to BP’s rankings. The window isn’t just somewhat short, but the obstacles are daunting as well. I’d gladly eat crow if it meant the Red Sox bulldozed through the other 29 teams, but realistically, it’s going to be tough, no matter what year they want to compete in.

The title window plan wasn’t unique nor a franchise secret, but I’ll admit it wasn’t exactly put out there for everyone to see. But there’s a downside to peaking like this, and it’s the inevitable drop that comes afterwards. Martinez’s contract is structured so he doesn’t have to stick around for that. His contract suggests he’s the last piece of the puzzle for the final few pushes, and then he can leave when he pleases. He doesn’t have to wait for the Red Sox to hit on high draft picks and shrewd international signings to reinforce their major league talent. That contract is one big exit strategy once the Red Sox start falling apart.

Maybe the Red Sox start handing out extensions like party favors, maybe guys like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers become legendarily good, and then maybe Martinez sticks around for the long haul. There’s definitely hope for long-term success. But for now, the title window is open with Martinez. When it shuts, though, it’ll come down hard and fast, and the Red Sox will have to find another way to get back to the top.

Photo by Joe Camporeale — USA TODAY Sports

That offseason, the Red Sox famously brought in future Hall of Fame pitcher and future Hall of Fame-level asshole Curt Schilling to, as it turned out, co-front the rotation. They also brought in Mark Bellhorn, Terry Francona, and maybe even more importantly, Keith Foulke. It was a murderer’s row of talent, from the front office on down. As it turned out, it was just barely enough to get past the Yankees in a second consecutive ALCS Game Seven. That was elation so high it lifted my ankles off the floor.

That two-year period where the Red Sox went from so close to winning to losing to so close to losing to winning represents certainly the most intense rivalry between two teams I’ve ever experienced or endured in my lifetime. And now, dear reader, 200 words into this, here is my point. The rivalry is back, my dudes! . It’s back! The Red Sox and the Yankees are the two best teams in the division, two of the three best in the AL and probably two of the best five or six in baseball. This season, this 2018, is going to be another huge brawl of a season. They got Severino, we got Sale. They got Judge, we got Betts. They got Stanton, we got JD. So I thought it might be instructive to look and see how these two teams stack up against each other, a tale-of-the-tape, if you will, or even if you won’t.

Let’s start here. PECOTA. The PECOTA projections are here and they are spectacular. Though maybe not if you’re the Red Sox. I’ve already detailed how the Sox individual projections maybe aren’t as positive as we’d wish they were, but in the end and as we all know, games are won on the field not inside spreadsheets. Which is good, because PECOTA has the Yankees finishing seven games up on the Sox after winning 96 games. By any measure, 89 wins for the Red Sox would be an unsuccessful season, but that’s where things stand as of now. FanGraphs does their own full season projections as well, and theirs are slightly more favorable to Boston (which makes them worth mentioning). They have the Sox at 93 wins, a game behind New York’s 94. Better, but not what we’re looking for.

So let’s go deeper. Let’s go position-by-position and see who has the advantage. I’ll give you the names and their projected WARP in parentheses.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (4.4) vs. Christian Vazquez (1.7)

This is one of the Yankees’ biggest advantages. Sanchez is, bizarrely as it is to say, perhaps as good a hitter as Judge. Vazquez is a fantastic defensive catcher, but at this point in his career, that’s mostly all he is.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

First Base

Greg Bird (1.5) vs. Moreland/Ramirez (combined 0.4)

We don’t really know what Greg Bird is as a player yet, but he was as highly touted as Judge was prior to the 2017 season, so there’s some nightmare fuel for Red Sox fans. He missed most of last season with an injury and didn’t hit well upon return, but he’s young and talented so much more is expected of him this season. Moreland is Moreland, and it’s still unclear to me why the Red Sox felt it necessary with a glut of talent available on the market, to give him a two year contract. Best case he and Hanley combine to form the two sides of a successful platoon, so that could happen. Or Hanley could remember that he’s actually a great hitter.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Push

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (0.1) vs. Dustin Pedroia (1.3)

Torres is yet another great Yankee prospect, but for now we don’t know what he is at the major league level. Pedroia is an aging middle infielder coming off of surgery. So who knows on either of these guys.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius (1.7) vs. Xander Bogaerts (1.4)

Ever since he’s put on the pinstripes, Gregorius has continued to get better. Over a similar timeframe Bogaerts’ numbers are going in the opposite direction. I’m still a Xander Believer though, more so than Gregorius who hacks at everything and seems like exactly the kind of hitter the juiced ball turns into something he isn’t.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Red Sox

Third Base

Brandon Drury (0.4) vs. Rafael Devers (1.8)

Drury is Gregorius with a more boring name. He’s got some pop but he doesn’t take walks and he’s not much beyond average defensively. That’s a fine profile for a team with Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, but it doesn’t move the needle much either way. Devers might be the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s that good.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Outfield

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton (3.9) vs. Andrew Benintendi (2.1)

Center Field: Aaron Hicks (1.2) vs. Jackie Bradley (1.0)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (4.0) vs. Mookie Betts (5.2)

We’re doing outfield together because this is getting long. The funny thing to me is that the Red Sox are a team built on the strength of their outfielders. Their best hitter and maybe their second best hitter are both outfielders. Their best fielders are outfielders. This is an outfield-heavy team. And yet, up against the Yankees, the strength of this Boston team falls back. The Yankees won’t be able to keep up with Boston defensively but they won’t be bad there, and what ground they lose there will more than be made up for with their bats. Good lord, those bats. The “ifs” here are health. The Red Sox players haven’t shown any predilection for missing games to injury, but Stanton and Hicks both have missed significant time over their careers.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Brett Gardner (1.8) vs. JD Martinez (2.9)

I don’t actually know who is going to DH for New York, so I picked the best Yankee projection not included in the above sections and put him here. That’s Gardner. But no leftover Yankee is going to hold a candle to J.D. Martinez in the hitting department.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

I was going to do the pitching staffs as well, but this has already gone on too long. We’ll leave that for next time. For now, the results. Counting the outfield as three separate positions, PECOTA has Yankees 6, Red Sox 3. I have Red Sox 4, Yankees 4 with 1 push.

Any way you slice this, and I’m sure Yankee fans would disagree with my analysis, it’s close. That we know. PECOTA shows that. FanGraphs shows that. Our eyes show that. It’s going to be another fun season. Buckle the heck up.

Let’s look at a few easy ways to make educated guesses.

Age

We know one of the biggest indicators of player quality is age. Hitters tend to improve before age 27, peak at that point or close to it, and decline after. The good news for the Red Sox is they feature a number of players who are not yet 27. Xander Bogaerts (25), Rafael Devers (21), Mookie Betts (25), and Andrew Benintendi (23) are all starters who figure to improve simply based on what we know about aging curves. That’s almost half of the Red Sox lineup. Further, Jackie Bradley (28) and Christian Vazquez (27) are in their peak seasons. This is good!

Beyond, Mitch Moreland (32), Dustin Pedroia (34), and Hanley Ramirez (34) are all likely to decline in the overall skills department. Thing is, Moreland wasn’t all that spectacular last season so much more than a very gentle decline from him would make him close to unplayable. The same goes for Hanley, though he has bounced up and down in terms of quality throughout his career. What’s more, should Martinez come to Boston, both Moreland’s and Hanley’s roles would be somewhat diminished.

Pedroia is the wild card here, though his age alone indicates we shouldn’t be expecting much more than league average production.

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez.

2018 Projections

PECOTA hasn’t been released yet and I don’t have a copy of the new BP 2018 Annual (which you should definitely buy right this instant) nearby, so regretfully, even though this is BP, we’re going to take a look at FanGraphs. The truth of the matter is, though we like PECOTA around these parts, at this point most projection systems are going to give you roughly the same thing, and that’s all I’m interested in for this exercise: rough estimates.

Going by those same rough estimates, of the Red Sox starting nine, FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance.

That roughly matches my expectations for these individual players and it comes close to matching our guesses based simply on player age, which is a factor in the projections as well so there’s admittedly a bit of double counting going on here.

Over/Under Performance

Lastly we can look at how players did last season relative to our expectations. A good proxy for that is the 2017 PECOTA, so let’s look and see how the 2017 Red Sox, our baseline for 2018, did compared to how we expected them to do. I compared the members of the starting lineup’s projected TAv’s to their actual TAv’s. Betts, Benintendi, Hanley, and Bogaerts all came in well below their TAv projections, with Betts and Hanley at their 15th and 10th percentile PECOTA projections for TAv. That’s pretty rough. Bradley and Pedroia were right about where PECOTA pegged them, well, Bradley was a bit worse, but roughly in the vicinity. Only Moreland and Devers beat their projections. Moreland was in the 60th percentile and Devers was in the 95th, which you’d probably expect given he wasn’t supposed to make even a Triple-A roster let alone start for multiple months in the majors.

So this is the part of the article where we try to put some of this information together. Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again. But in a league where the Astros are World Champs and the Yankees are maybe even better than that, it’s hard not to say, well, heck, get J.D. Martinez anyway. Can’t hurt.

Photo by David Kohl — USA TODAY Sports

But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.