Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

The sun was shining, the birds were singing, and — oh god, we haven’t done Deven Marrero yet. The 49th man. And now the clouds are coming back and the birds have gone silent. Just one more, I thought to myself. Just one more.

Deven Marrero with a glove is silk. He’s one of those players that will make even the toughest of plays seem routine, like he had been preparing his whole life for that one hard-hit grounder to go that far to his right. There’s a subtle pleasure in watching a great fielder do great fielding things, and if that’s your drug, Marrero is your fix. Inject it into our veins.

Deven Marrero with a bat? Well, if you can imagine what a disgusted recoil sounds like, that’s pretty much all you need to know.

What Went Right

The Red Sox, in their pre-Devers days, had a bit of crisis with finding a third baseman that could actually produce any kind of value. Pablo Sandoval, Josh Rutledge, and Marco Hernandez all tried their best, but due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or a combination of the two, none of them could produce. That’s where Marrero comes in. If their third baseman wasn’t going to get hits, it might as well take them away, and oh boy can Marrero do that.

Marrero’s defensive prowess got him 364 innings at third base, along with 106.2 innings at other positions in the infield. That includes 2.2 innings at first base, which he can now field, apparently. It’s only a matter of time until the Red Sox will only require a pitcher, a catcher, and Deven Marrero in the field.

We know how horrifying his hitting is, but he did have one bright spot.

That’s a two-homer game. Against Jose Quintana. Baseball is simply magical.

What Went Wrong

188 plate appearances might be good for Marrero on a personal level, but that was a canary in a coal mine for the Red Sox. If someone with Marrero’s offensive prowess was getting that much playing time in the majors, something — more specifically, third base — was very wrong. Marrero slashed .211/.259/.333 with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate, which looks as awful as it is. That comes out to a .215 TAv. He did hit four home runs, which technically counts as a power surge, if you’re looking for the thinnest silver lining possible.

Even his time at third base didn’t last very long, all things considered. Tzu-Wei Lin, who was called up directly from Double-A Portland, overtook him at the hot corner in late June.

Good thing the Red Sox have Rafael Devers.

What To Expect

Marrero is going to be involved in the second base carousel until Dustin Pedroia returns, so he’ll most likely stick with the team for a good while. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. His glove will keep him hovering around the majors, and maybe even start for a team desperate for anything at second base, shortstop, or third base. Right now, he looks to be part of the well-stocked depth the Red Sox have, and with no offense to be found, it isn’t likely that he’ll be much more than that. He’s good for a sparkling defensive play or two, but this is who he is.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

If you think this offseason has been dragging, well, Josh Rutledge was on the Red Sox for three seasons. Doesn’t really seem like it, but yes, he indeed logged 259 plate appearances with this team since 2015. And if that wasn’t enough, he was placed on the 60-day disabled list last year after he underwent surgery for patellar tendonitis, then he was optioned to Pawtucket, and after that, he elected to enter free agency. The Rockies then signed him to a minor league deal, but he was eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 draft, and wouldn’t you know it, the Red Sox brought him right back with the 14th pick in that draft. That seems like a bit much to bring back a guy with a career .695 OPS and a mediocre glove, but sometimes you just don’t understand the Red Sox.

Towards the tail-end of spring training, Rutledge suffered a left hamstring strain, and hit the 10-day DL to start the season. He didn’t return until April 25th, then had to be sat for a few games in early June thanks to dehydration. Then he had to be put on the 7-day concussion DL in late June, and spoke of “persistent soreness” in his hip. By the end of July, Rutledge was (once again) on the 60-day DL, having needed surgery on that hip, and he underwent the knife in late August. The Red Sox outrighted him this winter.

Admittedly, that’s a lot, and if you think that was exhausting to read, imagine writing it. Or watch him try to hit. That’s pretty draining too.

What Went Right

He did a cool thing here and there, I guess.

Otherwise, not much else. He did get paid to play baseball professionally, which is a pretty good thing no matter how you frame it.

What Went Wrong

His medical history is so lengthy and filled with injuries that even glass thinks he’s too fragile. 2017 was no exception.

He also posted a .558 OPS in 118 PA, and racked up a -0.3 WARP. Yikes.

What To Expect

Whatever he does, it won’t be with the Red Sox. Rutledge signed a minor-league deal with the San Francisco Giants in December, so now he’s behind such players as Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval. Hopefully, the Red Sox don’t feel like reclaiming him this time, and let the less injury-prone guys on the bench do the heavy lifting when it comes to being a part-time player. This isn’t even a “if you love something, let it go” situation — the Red Sox just need to let go.

Photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Back then, Pablo Sandoval was one of the premier signings of the offseason, having inked a five-year, $95 million contract. This was to lock him into playing the hot corner in Boston until 2019 and force open the next window of contention for the Red Sox. Optimism was guarded, but high. After a injury-plagued, loss-filled 2014 season, we all expected a rebound for the team in 2015, and Sandoval would be one of the reasons why.

2015 was a dumpster fire, mostly. 2016 happened with very little Panda involvement. 2017 didn’t even come with a dead cat bounce for the third baseman. Sandoval barely made it halfway through his contract before being released, and three years post-signing, that contract is regarded as one of the worst in recent memory, and definitely Ben Cherington’s worst signing, if not the worst transaction of his tenure as general manager of the Red Sox.

So, now that we’ve started this off on a good note, let’s take a look at what Sandoval did this season!

What Went Right

Back when we still had hope for him, Sandoval did a thing!

And after he went back to the San Francisco Giants and continued to flounder for a while, he did another thing!

He wasn’t all bad — just 95% or so.

What Went Wrong

Saying everything else feels like hyperbole, but it really was everything else. The comeback from shoulder surgery never materialized, as Sandoval posted a paltry .215 TAv in 108 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2017, and saw dwindling time in the field in lieu of guys like Josh Rutledge. His glove was still missing in action, couldn’t get consistent starting time, and was the recipient of some bad luck, even if his overall offensive output was a detriment to the team.

Sandoval went on the disabled list with an ear infection on June 20th, and never wore a Red Sox uniform again. The Red Sox kept him rehabbing in the minors as long as they possibly could, designated him for assignment on July 14th, and finally released him five days later. The Giants signed him to a minor league contract on July 22nd, and you can find my analysis for that move over at BP.

It’s really hard to overstate just how bad he was in Boston. Overall, his tenure saw him churn out an accumulated -1.8 WARP over 620 PA. Nothing about him was consistently good, with any aspect of his game ranging from mediocre at best to disastrous at worst. When Deven Marrero — Deven Marrero! — is keeping even with you offensively, you know you’re pretty abysmal at the plate. The difference between Sandoval and Marrero, however, is that Marrero is a wizard with a glove, and Sandoval — well, let’s just say he wasn’t very magical out there. Thus he became a $40 million benchwarmer, and the Red Sox ate the money to rid themselves of him.

It wasn’t a good signing to begin with, and it turned out even worse than anyone could’ve imagined. There’s no sugarcoating something that was this bad.

What To Expect

Nothing for the Red Sox, not anymore. He’s still with the Giants, and they have very little to lose by keeping him on the roster for now. Would it be cool to see him succeed again? Sure would! Is it likely? Not really, no. Sandoval wasn’t the type of player that would age gracefully, and at 31 years old, that shortened aging curve is really taking him for a downhill ride. There’s probably some decent baseball left in him, but if the Giants release him sometime next year, that’s probably it for the Panda. There’s not much else to say that hasn’t already been said, but you can only wish things had gone better with him.

Photo by Patrick McDermott – USA TODAY Sports

With Sandoval on the DL and jack of all trades, master of none Brock Holt still experiencing symptoms of vertigo, Rule 5 draft pick Rutledge was at third base yesterday. He was starting because utility infielder Marco Hernandez has a fielding percentage that starts with an eight. *Barely* starts with an eight. But Hernandez isn’t a third baseman. He’s a shortstop with some time spent at second base. Rutledge played a bit of third too, and is a fine fill-in for a few innings, but he’s not a third baseman either. In six seasons in the majors he’s had 50 chances at third base. Compare that to over 1,000 combined at shortstop and second. He’s in Hernandez’s boat. He’s a player being asked to do something he’s not capable of doing. There is a saying you’ve likely heard. Put players in position to succeed. So far, at third base, the Red Sox have done the opposite. They have put their players in position to fail.

So don’t be tempted to blame Hernandez, or for that matter, Rutledge, whose error yesterday shows only a glimpse of what is in store for the Red Sox should he continue at the position. They are merely doing what was asked of them. No, it’s not their fault. It’s the Red Sox fault.

Of course this all comes back to the front office. It goes deeper than Dave Dombrowski too. The Red Sox haven’t had a competent regular third baseman for more than a season in almost a decade now, so the fault for that goes well beyond the team president who took over just over a season ago. This is on Ben Cherington, and even Theo Epstein before him. But, man, Dave Dombrowski did his part here as well and since he’s the one in charge now, it bears looking at what he’s done.

Just this past off-season Dombrowski dealt 2016 starting third baseman Travis Shaw to the Brewers along with Mauricio Dubon (and Josh Pennington) for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg is injured and hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Red Sox. Shaw is hitting .263/.302/.545. Then Dombrowski traded Yoan Moncada (along with others) for Chris Sale. Moncada had moved to third base while in the Boston system, but the White Sox have since moved him back to his preferred position of second base. Still, for the Red Sox, Moncada represented depth at third. So did Shaw, for that matter.

The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt?

The issue isn’t should the Red Sox have traded for Chris Sale or not. Who could make that argument and not look like a jackass? The point here is less specific, more abstract. The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt? This is a guy who just missed almost an entire season and before that wasn’t hitting enough or fielding well enough to hold down a major league job. There has to be a backup plan. Travis Shaw fits that mold perfectly, but he was traded.

That’s not to say Travis Shaw shouldn’t have been traded. Of course you can trade Shaw (though I didn’t care for it then and that deal looks like crap now), but if you do you have to get someone back who can fill that same role for the organization, if not in that deal, then in the next, because without Shaw, that depth does not exist in the Red Sox organization. There isn’t anyone in Triple-A who can step in and not hurt the major league team without Shaw.

Instead, Dombrowski went further in dealing Moncada. Again, this isn’t to say you can’t trade Moncada. You can! You just have to be sure the organization can handle his loss. You have to cover for whatever hole he leaves behind. The Red Sox and Dombrowski didn’t do it, Sandoval predictably got hurt, and now we have the current predicament.

I said earlier that this wasn’t all on Dombrowski, that it was in some part on Cherington as well. Now, a few paragraphs later, I’m rethinking my position on that. Cherington left the organization with Sandoval, Shaw (drafted under Epstein, but not traded by Cherington), and Moncada. That’s not perfect, but it’s something. It’s capable of being improved on, but there is some competent depth at the position. After dealing both Shaw and Moncada and not replacing them with anyone, there is no depth at the position. So maybe this is all on Dombrowski.

To me it comes back to a few things. Not caring enough about organizational depth is one, but over-valuing relievers is another. Of all the moves that Dombrowski has made, perhaps his most polarizing, and from a statistical standpoint most damaging, have been his deals for relievers. He has made three big deals specifically for relievers. Those deals have cost the Red Sox Dubon, Shaw, Pennington, Wade Miley, Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Manny Margot. That’s a whole lot of talent (and even more if you look at what Miley is doing this season in Baltimore), and so far the Red Sox have received one season of good (not great) relief pitching from Kimbrel. That’s it. It’s been stated time and again that relievers are maybe the most volatile of players, and making big deals for relievers is a time-tested way to ruin your franchise. That’s not to say it never works. The Indians are probably fine with the Andrew Miller deal, for example, even almost a year later. But deals like Miller’s are the exception to the rule. Far more common are deals like the Thornburg deal. It’s possible that Thornburg could return and be amazing, but even if he does, it’s highly unlikely he’ll approach the value the Red Sox sent off to get him. Also, even if he does, look what the deal did to Boston’s depth at third base. Look at who they’re running out there every day. Thornburg better be good.

Of all those now gone players, only Shaw is a full time third baseman, but that’s less the point. Sure, Shaw would be incredibly useful to the Red Sox right now, far more so than Thornburg, but imagine having Margot, or Asuaje, or even Allen. Those guys could be traded to bring in someone so the Red Sox don’t have to keep running Rutledge or Hernandez, or if he gets better, Holt, out to positions they shouldn’t be playing. Instead of getting the biggest shiniest name on the market, perhaps the organization should put some stock in depth. It’s what got them through last season when Sandoval was lost early to season-ending surgery. It’s what allowed the organization to survive the loss of starting catcher Christian Vazquez last season. It’s also what they lacked in left field in 2016, causing them to move Blake Swihart left where he got hurt and was lost for the year.

Depth is important. Injuries happen. Starters don’t always stay on the field. You have to be able to cover for them without hurting yourself badly in the process. That’s the Red Sox biggest problem at third base. It’s not that their starter is hurt and can’t play. It’s that they have nobody else to step in for him. Like all depth-related issues, it was a little problem, but now it’s a big one.

Photo by John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps I should be more specific though. Because, if we’re really going to get into this pig filth, we have to jump in and wallow in it. From the start of the 2013 through 2014, ’15, ’16 and up to the very minute you are reading this sentence — and before you finish reading it, I urge you to please swallow that milk you are drinking lest it end up sprayed spit-take style on your computer screen — the Boston Red Sox have received the worst production from third base of any team in baseball.

The Red Sox third base situation has been sub-putrid. It’s like when you open the fridge and see something in there you should have thrown away weeks ago, but now it’s so bad you’re actively afraid to touch it.

[drinks milk]

[spits it on screen]

I had to.

Further, they are the only team to, in FanGraphs’ estimation, achieve below replacement level production in total over the past four plus seasons. Every other team in baseball has been better, and when you consider the money and organizational effort spent on third base, well, maybe you shouldn’t. Let’s go right to summarizing. The Red Sox third base situation has been sub-putrid. It’s like when you open the fridge and see something in there you should have thrown away weeks ago, but now it’s so bad you’re actively afraid to touch it, so you just leave in there to get worse. And, really, who wants to open a refrigerator and see Pedro Ciriaco staring back at them?

I thought about posting the entire list of players who have attempted to man the hot corner for Boston since 2013, and let me assure you, it is quite the list, but instead, to save time and agita, let’s put it this way: the fifth most valuable third baseman of the 19 (!) who inhabit this list is Carlos Rivero. Not “Rivera,” no, it’s “Rivero.” And to answer your next question, no, I have no idea who he is, and I follow this team almost professionally. But! I can tell you this, in the four games Rivero played (eight PAs), he was more valuable than 14 of the 19 players on the list.

Okay, okay, Matt, we get it. The Red Sox have been bad at third base, but now Pablo Sandoval is back and he’s lost weight so we’re all good, right? Well, yes and no. Sandoval is back and yes he did lose weight, and he’s hit for some power this season, so those are good things, but no, Sandoval’s return isn’t necessarily the answer to Boston’s third base problems. Back to that list one more time because we’re four paragraphs in now and there’s no reason to hide what a jerk I am anymore. Of the 19 different third baseman Boston has played since 2013, Sandoval is last. 19th. Partly that’s a function of playing time, and that’s true, but mostly it’s a function of him being horrendous. Like bad at hitting, bad at fielding, and bad at running the bases. But that’s all in the past, so let’s go back to the here and now.

Here’s the here and now: Sandoval is injured. Also, his work this season against left handed pitchers, admittedly in a small sample of 17 PAs, is befitting his placement on the above list. But it’s not just his hitting against lefties, his defense has also been suspect. That could be because of the time he’s missed over the past few seasons, or because of the surgery he’s likely still recovering from, so maybe it’ll improve over time. His range was never the strong part of his defensive abilities, and it still isn’t, but he’s moved around fine at third so far this year from what I’ve seen. It’s been his throws that have been the problem. Errors aren’t the best way to evaluate one’s defense but he’s already made four errors in 16 games, which puts him on a pace for –

[does math]

– waaaaay too many errors this season.

So, sure, maybe Sandoval comes back off the DL and the hitting improves and he stops making bad throws and hooray happiness. There’s probably more than a bit of wishful thinking there, but after looking at his batted ball data, I’m optimistic Sandoval can hit fine, even well, on the longer half of a platoon. Problem is, he’s not shown any ability to hit left handed pitching. Maybe he will, and I wouldn’t doubt John Farrell will give him some more shots at it when he gets healthy because it’s in the Red Sox best interest that Sandoval play more often than not. The reason it’s in the Red Sox best interest is also the problem with platooning Sandoval, namely the Red Sox don’t have much depth at third base. Their two primary depth options at third, Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez, are also left handed, not to mention neither one is really a third baseman. You can see how that would be problematic. Josh Rutledge is a organizational guy, a stop-gap, but not someone you want to run out to third base more than a few times over the course of a season. Same goes for Chase d’Arnaud who Boston just picked up off waivers from the Braves. Fine guy, I’m sure, but not someone you want to count on for any long period of time.

With those guys as the only options we’re left with hoping Sandoval gets healthy soon or … what? I don’t know and honestly I don’t think the Red Sox know either. There’s nobody in Triple-A Pawtucket you’d want taking regular time at third in Boston. Like really, nobody. The only potential in-house solution is Rafael Devers, and while he’s going to be a monster (really) and projects as a guy who can stay at third long term, right now he’s 20 years old with 50 at-bats above Single-A. Team President Dave Dombrowski has shown he’s not afraid to promote guys straight from Double-A as he did with both Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada last season, so perhaps that’s a possibility later on in the year. That said, sometimes that approach works (Benintendi) and sometimes it really doesn’t (Moncada), so as good as Devers may be by 2019 or even 2018, he’s no guarantee to help the Sox in 2017.

If the Red Sox are going to fix third base this year, it’s either Pablo Sandoval improves beyond what we can reasonably expect, or more likely, we’re looking at finding a right-handed platoon partner for a healthy Sandoval. The alternative is going big and landing someone who can man the position long term, and that’s going to be expensive and costly and other words that mean expensive and costly. For example, if the Blue Jays continue to flounder perhaps Josh Donaldson becomes available. He’d fit in perfectly, but he’d cost a pretty penny (start with Devers) and I’m not sure the Jays would be willing to trade him within the division. More realistically the Red Sox are looking at someone like David Freese from the Pirates, or Mike Moustakas from the Royals (though he’s left handed also).

Looking back on the off-season, it’s a shame the Red Sox weren’t able to bring in anyone good enough to platoon with Sandoval, and competent enough to replace him when he was out of the lineup, as he figured to be at least occasionally. But they didn’t. Instead they traded from their third base depth to acquire another reliever, who, like relievers do, promptly got injured. None of this is helping the Red Sox move up a spot or two on the list, but it seems right now Dave Dombrowski has pinned Boston’s hopes on a full recovery from Sandoval or a prospect supernova turn from Devers. Beyond those (remote) possibilities, we’re looking at another season of sub-par production from third base for the Red Sox.

A little exposition: he’s a 27-year-old career minor leaguer who’s been getting some at-bats with the Red Sox this spring. He hits and throws righty and plays in the outfield, for now. The difference between Selsky and 95 percent of the other players who don’t get to have their last names on the back of their #87 jersey is that in Selsky, the team seems to think they’ve legitimately found a useful major league contributor.

Nice! I’m soldsky. What does he do well?

To get a sense of what Selsky brings to the team, you have to take a look at his minor league numbers, as he’s only had 54 plate appearances at the major league level. As you can probably guess, that will get touched upon later, so let’s just look at his minor league numbers and make some questionable jumps in logic!

Selsky has shown flashes of being able to hit in the minors. He slashed .348/.420/.618 in 69 games (nice) for the Reds’ Single-A team in 2012 and then followed that up by hitting  .297/.388/.497 over 97 games the following year. He also flexed some power, hitting 28 home runs over that two-year span. He’s had up and down years since then, but is coming off a 2016 season where he hit .280/.363/.459 over 85 games for the Reds’ Triple-A team. So, the ability’s there. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal wrote about Selsky’s path to the team that touched on how the team views Selsky’s potential role.

Obviously, it’s telling that the team is giving him reps at third. There’s hardly any point in showing that level of commitment to a player of Selsky’s caliber unless the team sees something in him. As the Red Sox roster stands, there’s no real position that Selsky could make a realistic run at, even as a backup. The depth is intriguing though, and the team seems to think they have a versatile bench bat.

This is wonderful news! What a convenient story. What’s the catch? 

Where to begin?

– He’s had 54 major league plate appearances since getting drafted six years ago. Fifty-four. If he was a sure bet to even reach his relatively low ceiling, you’d think he’d be closer to reaching it by now.

– Sure, he’s had some good years. But he also hit .181/.281/.205 over 32 games at Double-A in 2013 and .240/.259/.339 over 55 games in Triple-A in 2014. He’s had some clunkers.

– He strikes out a LOT. Like, a lotttttttttt. His career K% hovers around 20 percent, and over 54 games with the Reds, that number shot up to 40 percent. I don’t care about your small sample size caveats; that’s so many strikeouts. You might even say it’s a lot with extra Ts.

– For being someone who supposedly brings some power potential, he doesn’t have that much power. After hitting 15 homers in 2012 and 13 in 2013, Selsky hasn’t reached double-digit home run totals since. In fact, outside of 2016, when he had nine homers (which is actually good news for Red Sox fans but we’re already past the good news part of this article), he hasn’t had more than two in a season since 2013.

– Even his major league numbers are misleading. .314/.340/.471 over 24 games is just enough time to be optimistically intrigued, but those numbers were never going to last. Over that time period, besides striking out 40 percent of the time, he also has an absurd .519 BABIP. He also only posted a 3.7 percent BB%. To recap: he was striking out half the time, never walking, and was abnormally lucky.

There’s probably not a lot there. He’s blocked by Chris Young, Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez apparently(!?), and Josh Rutledge on the bench. The end of the bench (coughjosh’sspotcough) could conceivably be a place where a strong spring could land him but, it doesn’t seem likely.

And that’s Steve Selsky. They can’t all be about Mookie Betts.

Photo by Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports

With the Red Sox, the potential bounce-back storylines are obvious. Will David Price pitch to his peripherals? What in the hell was Fernando Abad’s 2016, and will 2017 be any different? And the elephant in the room: what is Pablo Sandoval going to give us?

After going under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, all Sandoval has done is garner rave reviews about his rehab and fitness programs. He’s dropped tens of pounds, he’s eating healthier, and he’s been at the Red Sox’s Ft. Myers facility since August, presumably. With all the buzz surrounding a slimmer Sandoval, the hype is slowly working its way up about what he could do once he returns. He’s not going to rack up four-win seasons again, that’s for sure, but you can be pretty confident in saying that he won’t be as bad as his 2015 season ended up being.

PECOTA agrees with me on that last sentiment. This is what it sees for his 2017:

In terms of possible outcomes, that’s the center of the bell curve, the least extreme result and the one most likely to happen. That projection was pessimistic about his fielding, giving him a -2 FRAA, which isn’t surprising. Throughout his career, his defensive metrics have been all over the map, and he’ll also be 30 years old come Opening Day. Defense tends to spike early on in a player’s career then gradually get worse, and with Sandoval being the Jekyll & Hyde defender that he is, you can’t count on positive returns in that area at his age.

The offense looks to be the key to his comeback, as even a .260 TAv is 14 points better than both Travis Shaw’s and Brock Holt’s 2016 TAv. The power will be about the same, but PECOTA thinks Sandoval will hit for a better average and take more walks than those two. The VORP seems low, but that’s exactly the same as what all the Red Sox third basemen combined for in 2016. BWARP is probably his harshest critic, as the 2016 hot corner battalion cranked out 2.2 BWARP and the projection barely gives him a quarter of that. That’s mostly attributed to fielding, however.

The putrid production from the hot corner last year is the floor for Sandoval. It’ll be tough to be worse than that. But the creeping suspicion still remains: he could also be as bad as 2015. Thankfully, PECOTA doesn’t add fuel to that fire. What we’ve got to understand is how bad 2015 was, and the best way to show it is to compare it to PECOTA’s tenth percentile outcome – alternatively known as the extremely bad result:

If it takes the really terrible outcome to replicate Sandoval’s worst season, I think he’ll be alright. Acceptable, even.

It shouldn’t be very hard to get more production out of third base this year than last year. The Red Sox were dead last in OPS by third basemen in 2016, and it wasn’t particularly close. The second-worst team at the position, the Cincinnati Reds, coughed up a .701 OPS. The Red Sox? A whopping .685 mark. As fun as two months of Baseball Annihilator Travis Shaw was, it was those other months that brought him way down, and no one else really stopped the bleeding at the third – not Brock Holt, not Marco Hernandez, and certainly not Aaron Hill, who looked pretty pumpkin-like during his time in Boston.

It goes without saying that if you’re going to hype up a Panda bounce-back, you need the context. The Red Sox desperately need something to come out of the black hole at third base, and anything Sandoval can give will go a long way to replacing some of the production David Ortiz cranked out. The projections think that he’ll do that, and it’s not unlikely that he’ll do so. He’s a better option than anything the Red Sox have, which is now Brock Holt (who was bad last year and shouldn’t play a full season), Marco Hernandez (solid but a better bench bat than anything), Josh Rutledge (ew), and Deven Marrero (audibly dry heaves). You could make an argument for Holt, but if that argument consists of “hustle and grit” remarks, no one wants to hear it.

If Sandoval looks to shoot for better than that 50th percentile projection, there are a couple of things that could bring a better-than-expected result to him. Matt Collins wrote about Sandoval in October on these web pages, and while he did note that being better with the glove could help, it’s not something to expect from him. The biggest improvement would have to be made to his plate discipline. A reduction in strikeouts and a  newfound improvement in his walk rate would go a long way to a great comeback for Sandoval. He’s a free swinger, and takes hacks at pitches even Vlad Guerrero would lay off, so a modest improvement would do wonders. It’s unlikely, but for a player that drastically needs a career revival, that would be a nice place to start. Not everyone will have a comeback on the level of 2013 John Lackey.

A huge turnaround isn’t unheard of – especially in Boston – and when the bar’s set this low, you don’t need one. Sandoval just needs to play. He doesn’t need to be flashy, doesn’t need to be exciting, he just needs to give us anything better than the carnage we’ve seen. Keep the hype levels low, ignore the Best Shape Of His Life reports, and expect some modestly acceptable baseball from Pablo Sandoval. It’s all we can really ask for, and it’s what PECOTA thinks he’ll give.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

“Sticking to sports” is impossible. Every journalist is a human being, and every human being has his or her flaws; I’m no Christian, but I think they teach something like that. I think it’s a human flaw to be writing about Josh freaking Rutledge when the country is falling apart, and I cannot imagine there’s an enthusiastic readership today for a season recap of a guy who will compete for the Sox’s final roster spot in March — if we, as a society, make it that long. But hey, speaking of flaws: he’s got plenty.

What went right in 2016

The Golden State Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals with the unanimous MVP, but that’s about it. As for Rutledge, he played only 28 games due to a right knee injury, batting .265/.345/.388. I guess the six walks in 56 plate appearances were good? I’m not exactly hating the two steals, either, and while the six doubles are nice, it would have been nicer if a few of them went over the wall, because he was in the no homers club. I most think 2016 was good for Rutledge in that he was able to play at all, because that’s not guaranteed for someone of his skill level. Staying above water requires real work, and Rutledge has somehow done it.

What went wrong in 2016

The knee injury was apparently so bad that the Internet can’t figure out which one it was. Was it the left knee, as the Boston Globe reported? Or was it the right knee, as cited in a December MLB.com report? (It was the left one.) Rutledge didn’t play a game after June 14th and opted for free agency in the offseason, at which point he signed a minor league deal to return to Colorado, where he began his career, even if he couldn’t even hit at Coors the first time around. That’s hard to do! It’s even harder when the Red Sox buy back your contract in the Rule 5 Draft, as they did in December, meaning you don’t even play in Coors.

What to expect in 2017

You should expect a protracted, painful five-way “battle” for third base playing time between Pablo Sandoval, Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez, Deven Marrero and Rutledge. It’s an example of how desperate the Sox are that they brought Rutledge back in the first place, and given the depth of the competition here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be the first guy sent packing if this turns into the low-stakes game of Survivor it seems to be. Nothing against Rutledge, because I’d love to be wrong. I’d also like to live a world that made a lick of sense, but I’m not holding my breath. I’m getting them in while I can.

Photo by John Hefti/USA Today Sports Images

No one would say the hitting’s been a problem, as it’s the one thing keeping the team afloat. But what about the bench players? They’re not a particularly inspiring group, but they’re not main cogs of the run-scoring machine the Red Sox run out there every day. You could definitely fault them as a whole for being pretty terrible, though.

On Opening Day, the Red Sox began the season in Cleveland with a bench that included Ryan Hanigan, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Young, and Rusney Castillo. While benches aren’t exactly supposed to be imposing, this one certainly wasn’t at first. Chris Young is the one good name here, and he’s currently on the disabled list after pulling a hamstring. Sandoval’s shoulder ended up being a lot worse than we thought, and he was done for the year. Rusney Castillo has been so bad in both Triple-A Pawtucket and the big league club that he’s since been removed from the 40-man roster. Hanigan’s a backup, but even he was sidelined by a neck strain, and catching Steven Wright hasn’t helped his defensive metrics in any way.

So, next one(s) up, right? Here comes Christian Vazquez, who clubbed a home run I can only describe as immensely satisfying to watch. The clean sound off the bat, the arc, the – well, everything.

As great as that dinger was, it didn’t take long for Vazquez to revert back to his old ways of simply not hitting. The thing is, you accept that if he could play some of his trademark phenomenal defense, right? He didn’t have that either. After a June that saw Vazquez hit .189/.246/.226, he was sent to Pawtucket, and Sandy Leon was called up.

Then Leon caught fire, and in just 60 PA, he amassed 1.1 WARP. Catchers, man. Apart from Young, Leon might be the best guy here in terms of contributing to the 2016 team.

I’d talk about Blake Swihart with the rest of the backstops, but he was a catcher for all of a month. Swihart was sent back down to Triple-A to learn how to play left field, as Brock Holt had one good week and didn’t really do much after that. Come May, it turned out Holt was also playing through concussion symptoms. So Swihart gets installed as the left-handed platoon partner in LF, and promptly gets injured while playing a position he had all of a few months worth of experience with. Another bench player bites the dust, albeit an out-of-position one.

“But Brett,” you argue, “catcher depth is going to have some very steep fall-off in production after the starter!” And yes, that’s true. The thing is, all the guys who haven’t been backup catchers on the Red Sox’s bench have collectively been just as bad.

Of the infielders, Marco Hernandez has promise, but that’s about all you can say for whomever’s graced the Red Sox bench over the last couple months. Josh Rutledge was doing okay filling in here and there, but knee tendinitis has sidelined him, forcing the Red Sox to rely on Deven Marrero and Mike Miller – yeah, that was my reaction too – to help put a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The outfielders are in the same spot. Chris Young’s pulled hammy opened the door for Bryce Brentz, who has done well early on, but you’re not going to be sold on a guy who has a 25% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. Ryan LaMarre has appeared, and then disappeared, kinda like this pitch:

RYAN LAMARRE pic.twitter.com/Pz7n1gCMXa

— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) June 21, 2016

Yeah. That’s what the Red Sox have been dealing with.

So what’s been the point of me listing off all the failings of guys of which the majority shouldn’t be starting in the first place? Well, it’s because this is starting to become an issue as bad as the starting pitching. It’s just not as evident or instantly noticeable.

The 2016 Red Sox are being propelled on the strength of the hitting of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and David Ortiz, with some help thrown in by the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Travis Shaw. But man, does it ever drop off after that. Hanley Ramirez has been okay, sure, but who do you turn to when he can’t buy a hit and Travis Shaw starts regressing from hitting .350 for two months? You turn to the bench.

This time, there was nothing on the bench to shore up whatever the Red Sox lacked. Combined with a pitching staff that got worse at the worst time, the Red Sox trudged through a 10-16 June, and the left field situation got so bad that people started wondering if Andrew Benintendi could work out in a call-up to the majors from Double-A Portland.

Benches, in a vacuum, aren’t supposed to be good. I get that. The players aren’t starting because they’re not good enough to do so, and we weren’t going to see something like 2013 where guys like Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes annihilated everything they saw. But the Sox, with the resources they have, should’ve done better.

Thankfully, Dave Dombrowski’s taking steps to actually fix all this, trading for Aaron Hill, who was – relative to the Sox bench – smacking the hell out of the ball in Milwaukee. It’s a start. They might just have to wait for guys to come back off the DL for more help.

One can only hope the regulars keep doing what they’re doing, since the Red Sox can’t really afford for them to do much else. That’s the situation they’ve ended up in after the first half, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images