Division Winners

Postseason

#hardware

• Four teams are unanimous picks for their division, with just the two-man carousel in the NL East and the AL West party getting different results.
• Of the Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers, one’s gotta go. With our staff, it’s usually the Mariners. Sorry, Seattle.
• Devereaux says the AL MVP award should be named after Trout from now on, and I can’t disagree.
• He also said the NL Cy Young should just be named after Kershaw as well. See above reaction.
• Slavin’s Margot pick for NL ROY is, as he tells it, “the first dose of retribution for Trader Dave”. That one made me laugh.

Regardless of how you view this season thus far, it’s still a big improvement from last year. Some of those first-half successes can be attributed to changes made in the offseason, such as signing David Price and Chris Young and trading for Craig Kimbrel (sorry, Carson Smith). But those changes, particularly the trades, also required parting ways with some notable players. Yes, the Red Sox acquired talent, but gone are promising prospects such as Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra, as well as complementary pieces like starting pitcher Wade Miley.

We’ve seen how these moves have worked for the Red Sox, but what about the teams on the other side of the deals? What kind of contributions have the likes Margot, Guerra and Miley made to their new clubs, and what does it mean for those players going forward?

Let’s start with the Kimbrel deal. The Sox sent Margot, Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen to San Diego for the four-time All-Star closer. Kimbrel, as I wrote last week, has become the player the Red Sox were hoping to get. The Padres may be a mess, but they aren’t missing Kimbrel, either. Fernando Rodney owns a 0.31 ERA and 2.32 FIP, and San Diego’s newcomers have shown good potential in the minor leagues.

Manuel Margot

2015: .270 TAv, .147 ISO and 1.1 WARP in 64 games with Double-A Portland; .273 TAv, .138 ISO and 1.7 WARP with High-A Salem

Last season was good, but not great for Margot. This year he’s looked more like the player that made him one of the top prospects in the Red Sox’s organization. He’s spent the entire season with Triple-A El Paso, and has been the leadoff hitter and starting center fielder most of the way. He’s also putting up some of the best numbers of his young MiLB career. Margot is slashing .299/.352/.419 with a .274 TAv., while his speed (21 stolen bases) and defense (14.9 FRAA) continue to be strengths. BP’s Mark Anderson put his MLB ETA at 2017 in his scouting report three years ago. With the Padres out of contention, the 21-year-old Margot may get his chance as early as this September.

Carlos Asuaje

2015: .259 TAv, .123 ISO and -0.6 WARP in 131 games with Double-A Portland

Asuaje didn’t look like a major piece in the Kimbrel deal at the time. He projected as nothing more than a major-league utility player, and his numbers in Portland last year proved just that. Asuaje, however, has found new life in a new system, posting a .296 TAv and 1.3 WARP in El Paso thus far. He also has 25 extra-base hits, including a Pacific Coast League-high seven triples, matching his total from last season. Asuaje’s 2016 numbers are a throwback to his 2014 campaign split between Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem, when he combined for a 5.2 WARP that year. Now he’s starting to see his major-league potential manifest itself in his first crack at Triple-A. Perhaps he’s not far from his big-league debut either.

Javier Guerra

2015: .280 TAv, .171 ISO and 4.0 WARP in 116 games with Low-A Greenville

Guerra put all scouting reports to shame with his offensive production in Greenville last season. As BP’s Wilson Karaman wrote, Guerra is a premier defensive shortstop with a little pop in his bat, but at 20 years old his approach at the plate is still raw. That’s the player he’s been this season. He owns an underwhelming .245 TAv in High-A Lake Elsinore, but does have a 9.9 FRAA. Guerra hasn’t shown quite as much power, however, as he has just eight homers in 282 plate appearances and a .139 ISO, but it’s still a potential strength of his.

Logan Allen

2015: 0.90 ERA, 1.05 FIP and 10.8 K/9 in seven starts in rookie ball; made one start in Class-A Lowell

The Red Sox drafted Allen in the eighth round last June, so there’s little to compare what he’s done thus far to. What we do know is that the 18-year-old is off to a decent start, posting a 3.07 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 8.4 K/9 in 12 appearances (eight starts) for Low-A Fort Wayne. BP’s Grant Jones sees a potential major-league future for Allen, but that’s still a long way from being realized.

Then there’s the Miley trade. Both the Red Sox and Mariners are off to good starts, but no thanks in part to the deal that sent Miley and Jonathan Aro to Seattle in exchange for Smith, who is out for the season, and Roenis Elias, who had a forgettable Sox debut.

Wade Miley

2015: 4.46 ERA, 3.78 FIP and 6.8 K/9 in 32 starts

The Red Sox knew what they were getting from Miley last season. This year, the left-hander has been far worse. Miley owns a 4.74 DRA and 4.82 FIP through 13 starts with the Mariners this season. He’s allowing home runs at a career-high rate (1.5 HR/9) and inducing ground balls at a career-low rate (45 percent). These numbers are all coming with Safeco Field as his home ballpark. As bad as Boston’s starting rotation has been, it wouldn’t be any better with Miley in the fold.

Jonathan Aro

2015: 6.97 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 7.0 K/9 in six games with Boston; 3.14 ERA, 2.42 FIP and 9.2 K/9 in 26 games with Triple-A Pawtucket; 2.82 ERA, 2.78 FIP and 7.7 K/9 in eight games with Double-A Portland.

Aro was a decent reliever throughout his MiLB career with the Red Sox, and he’s continued to be one for Triple-A Tacoma. The 25-year-old righty owns a 2.27 ERA and 3.81 FIP over 23 appearances, while posting a 6.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Pretty good, but nothing special. That’s who Aro is, and who he’ll continue to be, even if he works his way into a middle relief role in the majors.

The only other notable player the Red Sox lost in the offseason was Justin Masterson, but the Sox gladly let him walk in free agency after an ugly showing in 2015. This season hasn’t treated Masterson any better. He’s made five appearances (two starts) for the Indianapolis Indians – the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate – and owns a 5.17 ERA and 6.48 FIP. It’s safe to say he’s not due for any more post-Boston breakthrough seasons.

The Red Sox parted ways with numerous players throughout the organization last offseason. Overall, those players have met expectations in their new homes. What does that mean for the Sox? Ultimately very little given the way both offseason trades worked for the teams involved. Both the Red Sox and Padres benefited from the Kimbrel trade, while the Mariners and Sox have yet to get anything out of the Miley deal. Sometimes that’s how trades work. The fun part will be seeing what kind of players Margot and Co. develop into, while the Red Sox hope to get value out of Kimbrel and Smith for the next few years.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The long-dreaded, yet inevitable, happened for the Red Sox last week — David Ortiz announced he will retire at the end of the 2016 season. The news came as little surprise.

Ortiz is 40 years old and, after hitting his 500th home run in September, has pretty much reached every possible career milestone. But it does leave the Sox with questions beyond 2016. CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam asked perhaps the biggest one — where will the Red Sox’s power come from in the post-Ortiz era? That answer seemed clear entering spring training last season. The Sox signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year deal with the expectation that he would DH when Ortiz retires and, at least partially, fill the power-hitting void left by Big Papi. That seems unlikely now. Ramirez hit 10 home runs in April and finished with 19 for the year in what was a dreadful season both in the field and at the plate. The best-case scenario is that Ramirez is traded and never seen in a Red Sox uniform again. Let’s pretend that’s the case for a minute and leave him out of the mix. So who’s next? (Before considering this answer, let’s remember there’s really no replacing Ortiz, who hit 37 home runs with a .280 ISO — good for sixth in all of baseball — at 39 years old last season, especially when we’re looking at it from a power-hitting standpoint.)

Right now it’s Mookie Betts. Betts hit 18 home runs, eight of which came in the final 58 games of the season, and finished second among qualified Red Sox players with a .188 ISO. The now-23-year-old struggled at the plate over the first two months before turning it around considerably. The idea is that he is only going to get better. The next-best options are unproven minor leaguers. First there’s Sam Travis. He’s big, strong and has a long swing, but that’s yet to translate into power hitting (he posted a .136 ISO in 281 plate appearances with Double-A Portland). Then, of course, there’s Andrew Benintendi, whom the Sox drafted in the first round last June. His 239 plate appearances between Lowell and Greenville is a small sample size, but his production — a .250 ISO in Lowell and .230 in Greenville — was no joke. The problem, however, is that he may be years away from being major-league ready. Perhaps we’ll see Ortiz’s true value once he’s no longer in the lineup every day.

This offseason isn’t the first in which the Red Sox are in pursuit of an ace. But, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the way in which they expect to do it is unfamiliar territory for both the franchise and Dave Dombrowski. The last 20 years show that the Sox have been most successful when acquiring elite starting pitching via trade. It’s how they landed Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, all three of whom were instrumental to World Series championships. Their most recent ace, Jon Lester, was homegrown. This offseason, it appears the most likely way the Red Sox will land a No. 1 starter will be via free agency, whether they sign Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke or David Price. That’s something the modern Red Sox, and Dombroski, don’t normally do. The last top-of-the-rotation starter the Sox signed as a free agent was John Lackey. By then Lester was already in place as the No. 1. Other free-agent signings included Daisuke Matsuzaka and Matt Clement. Not exactly ace-quality right there.

Dombrowski’s Tiger teams were no different. Justin Verlander was homegrown, while Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Price were all traded for. Why exactly are these such uncharted waters for the Sox and Dombrowski? Perhaps it’s the risk that comes with it. Just look at last season’s free-agent class. Scherzer signed with the Nationals for $210 million over seven years, while Jon Lester inked a six-year, $155 million deal with the Cubs. Both pitchers had solid first seasons with their new teams, but it’s how the coming years play out that’ll determine if the contracts were worth it. Meanwhile, James Shields had one of his worst statistical seasons in 2015 after signing a four-year, $75 million deal with the Padres. The Sox will need to spend Lester or even Scherzer money to land one of the top pitchers on the market. But first they need to determine who’s worth the risk.

Quick Hits

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith makes the case for Greinke as the Red Sox’s top pitching target. Greinke had perhaps his best season in 2015, posting a 2.79 FIP, 7.6 WARP and finishing second in the NL Cy Young race. Last season wasn’t a fluke, either. Greinke may have occasionally flown under the radar pitching in the same rotation as Clayton Kershaw, but his three years with the Dodgers were some of his best, as he finished with a 2.97 FIP and 8.3 K/9 over a combined 602.2 innings. The righty has proven he can also do it in the American League, where he pitched with the Royals over the first seven seasons of his career and won a Cy Young in 2009. The one potential issue with Greinke is his battle with social anxiety disorder. But that’s a moot point given he how he handled the pressures of pitching in the Los Angeles market, as Chad Finn of Boston.com pointed out.

Don’t think we’re done talking about starting pitching just yet. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier wrote an interesting piece on when the right time to trade a back-of-the-rotation starter is. The Red Sox certainly have a bevvy of those kind of pitchers. That will become more apparent if and when they acquire a No. 1 starter. That means someone will have to go. Speier explains why the Sox may be best served waiting until the middle of next season to strike a deal, citing the Cubs’ July 2013 acquisition of a little-known Jake Arrieta in exchange for Scott Feldman as a reason to be patient.  

Reliever Pat Light was one of three prospects added to the team’s 40-man roster last Friday. The 24-year-old righty has never been among the team’s top prospects since being drafted in 2012 and had an unspectacular 2015 season, especially in Triple-A where he posted a 4.28 FIP and an ugly 7.09 BB/9 in 26 relief appearances. But, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, Light gives the Sox another hard-throwing arm out of the bullpen. Light’s fastball, which sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, is a commodity among pitchers that helped him average a 9.55 K/9 in Pawtucket. It appears to be an asset the Red Sox desire in their bullpen reconstruction after trading for Craig Kimbrel nearly two weeks ago. Unlike Kimbrel, of course, Light is young and unproven, just like Matt Barnes, who also lives and dies by a mid-90s fastball, was last season before finishing with a 5.23 FIP over 43 innings. That’s not to say Light will be like Barnes if he pitches in Boston next season. But you’ve been warned.

Not everyone was on board with the Kimbrel trade. The reason for that is the hefty batch of prospects the Sox were forced to give up in order to get him, most notably Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra. The Providence Journal’s Tim Britton analyzed what exactly the Red Sox lost in Margot and Guerra. Margot was one of the top-rated prospects in the organization last season. He’s a speedy, athletic outfielder with power potential, but his aggressiveness at the plate caught up with him in a disappointing stint in Double-A. The good news for Margot is he’s 21 years old and has time to improve his approach and reach his ceiling. Guerra was always touted for his defensive prowess at shortstop, but he was a pleasant surprise at the plate, where he finished with a .354 wOBA and 15 home runs in Low-A Greenville. The Red Sox, however, could afford to part ways with Guerra given Xander Bogaerts’ stranglehold on short for years to come.

It wouldn’t be Read Sox without a Roger Clemens reference, right? Rocket has an interesting place in Boston sports lore. He spent 13 stellar seasons as the team’s homegrown ace, but his most controversial moments came as a member of the Yankees with the rivalry at its peak. Then there was that whole steroids thing. If you’re under 25 (like me), you probably don’t like Clemens and see no place for him in the Hall of Fame. But if he were to be voted in, he’d don a Red Sox cap on his plaque — at least that’s what he said in a radio interview last week. Now that would be quite a sight.

Dave Roberts was named manager of the Dodgers on Monday. I bring this up as an excuse to relive the biggest stolen base in Red Sox history. Enjoy!

That doesn’t mean 2015 has been devoid of progress for the Red Sox. The team’s struggles, while costing Ben Cherington his job, have given numerous young players an opportunity to get their feet wet in the major leagues in a manner that is rare for an ultra-competitive organization like Boston.

Indeed, through all the losing and heartache, a new, young core has emerged. At the age of 22, both Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are borderline stars already, and the pair looks set to carry the Red Sox offense for years to come. Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo have shown growth after being handed regular playing time, and all three look likely to become valuable contributors. Travis Shaw, too, has emerged as someone capable of giving the club production at first base.

In addition, a year after Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa and Anthony Ranaudo failed to make the most of their opportunities to earn a rotation spot, Boston has seen two young starters in Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens impress at the MLB level.

While the 2015 campaign has again been a disappointing one, you can’t ignore the contributions the Red Sox have received from their depth down in the minor leagues. Moreover, with a farm system that continues to draw rave reviews, Boston is likely to receive help from more youngsters next season, even if the team’s best prospects are still a couple years away.

So who could earn the call next summer and help the 2016 Red Sox? Here are five prospects to keep an eye on:

Sam Travis

While Shaw has staked a claim for extended playing time at first base, Sam Travis could have the better big league career when all is said and done. A second-round pick in 2014, Travis tore up Double-A pitching after receiving a mid-season call-up to Portland. Over 131 games between High- and Double-A, Travis hit .307/.381/.452 with nine home runs and 47 extra-base hits.

Travis isn’t likely to be a perennial All-Star, but if the power develops, he could turn into a steady offensive performer in Boston. He reached base safely in 59 of 65 games for Portland and could earn a chance in the majors next summer if an opportunity presents itself.

Deven Marrero

Yes, Marrero’s already debuted for the Red Sox in 2015, but he’ll be in a better position to help out next year. No one’s questioning the quality of Marrero’s glove, which has drawn rave reviews ever since he entered the system. For that reason, he could prove valuable in a utility role, especially after showing the ability to play elsewhere in the infield this season.

The big uncertainty for Marrero remains just how much he’ll hit at the major league level. After getting his feet wet in Pawtucket in 2014, the 25-year-old batted .256/.316/.344 in 102 games at Triple-A this campaign, which doesn’t inspire much confidence in his offensive potential. You could do worse than Marrero as a homegrown bench piece, though, even if he won’t hit enough to play every day.

Pat Light

The Red Sox will need some in-house options to step up if they’re going to rebuild what’s been an awful bullpen. After being converted to a reliever earlier this season, Pat Light dominated in Portland before running into some control problems with Pawtucket. Still, Light’s stuff could certainly play in the backend of Boston’s bullpen if he can corral those command issues. His fastball sits in the upper-90s, and he’s gotten great results after going back to the splitter he used in college.

Dombrowski will need to be proactive in improving the club’s stable of relievers this offseason, and the Red Sox will need a lot more than Light to build an adequate bullpen. But of all the players within the organization who might come up and make an impact in 2016, Light is the most likely.

Sean Coyle

If Coyle could ever stay healthy, he’d be a better-known prospect. He’s been in Boston’s system for six seasons now and is still only 23 years old. A 5-foot-8 second baseman (no, he’s not the next Dustin Pedroia), Coyle has hit, and often for power, just about everywhere he goes.

He didn’t impress much in a 39-game stint with Pawtucket this season, batting just .250/.308/.333. Nevertheless, if he can avoid injury, one could see his bat forcing its way into the Red Sox’s plans, especially if Pedroia misses time due to injury yet again next season. At the very least, Coyle could be a useful hitter to call upon off the bench down the stretch a year from now.

Manuel Margot

The best Red Sox prospect in the upper minors, Margot is probably the least likely player on this list to reach Boston next summer. He’s also a prime candidate to be traded this offseason given the team’s crowded outfield picture. If Dave Dombrowski decides to hold onto Margot, however, the young outfielder could be in line for his MLB debut late in 2016.

Margot’s defense in center field is good enough for the majors already, and he’s made great strides at the plate even if the offensive production is a little further behind. He’s also been younger than his competition at every step up the minor league ladder and will turn 21 later this week. Everyone is expecting Boston to roll with an outfield of Betts, Bradley and Castillo next year, but there remains a scenario in which Dombrowski trades one of them and a long-term spot opens up for Margot.

All photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket

Player of the year: Deven Marrero, INF — This selection is telling of the kind of year it was in Pawtucket. The team’s lineup this season consisted primarily of major league castoffs such as Allen Craig and Jackie Bradley Jr., and then there was Marrero trying to earn his first big league callup. Although his numbers weren’t impressive — a .250 true average and .309 wOBA in Triple-A isn’t exactly major league-caliber — the 2012 first-round pick did enough to earn multiple opportunities with the Red Sox this season and should see more as we get deeper into September. Marrero was at his best at the plate toward the end of the season, hitting .306 over his final 24 minor league games, and by playing shortstop, third and second base continued to show the kind of defensive versatility that’s invaluable to a big league club.

Pitcher of the year: Brian Johnson, LHP — This distinction could’ve just as easily gone to Henry Owens. However, Johnson’s season-long consistency stood out in 2015. The 24-year-old made 18 starts in Triple-A, posting a 3.22 FIP and 8.44 K/9 while giving up more than two runs in just four of those starts. The highlight of Johnson’s year came May 29 when he tossed six perfect innings and struck out a season-high nine batters. He did get one forgettable spot start with Boston in July before returning to Triple-A, but the lefty’s season ended abruptly Aug. 2 when he experienced elbow tightness in the fourth inning of what would be his final start of the year. The Red Sox shut Johnson down soon after. Although there was no ligament damage found, it’s unclear what kind of impact the injury will have on him going into next season.

Biggest surprise: Dayan Diaz, RHP — Diaz’s major league dream seemed all but over after an ugly 2013 season in the Cubs organization. But his two years in the Sox’s system have revitalized his career, with this season being his most impressive yet. The righty posted a 1.94 ERA and 7.76 K/9 in 27 appearances out of the bullpen for Pawtucket, using his hard fastball to overpower hitters and a late-breaking slider to keep them off-balance. The 26-year-old’s performance this season propelled his stock within the system and could make him a viable candidate for a spot in next season’s Red Sox bullpen. Diaz’s command starts to fade as he pitches later into games, but he has the type of stuff to be a serviceable back-end arm out of the bullpen.

Biggest disappointment: Garin Cecchini, 3B/1B/OF — Unfortunately for Cecchini, this was an easy choice to make. One year after making his major league debut, Cecchini endured the worst season of his professional career, finishing with a .209 TAv and a 21.3 percent strikeout rate. He did show signs of a turnaround at the plate in August and eventually earned a brief callup to the big leagues again, but the overall product was ugly, especially after a brutal first two-plus months of the season. Cecchini dabbled with left field this season along with his primary spot at third base, but that was about all he did well in 2015. At 24, Cecchini still has time to turn his career back around, but there’s no doubt this year was a major setback.

Double-A Portland

Player of the year: Sam Travis, 1B — Travis’ 2015 got off to an impressive start in High-A Salem, and he hardly slowed down when he was promoted to Portland in late June. The first baseman played 65 games in Portland, sporting a .297 TAv and .376 wOBA, and improving his BB% to 11.7 percent. Travis didn’t take long to adjust Double-A. He struggled over the first week, but hit .318 from July 2 onward, proving his rapid ascension through the system is no fluke. Travis was drafted in the second round out of Indiana in 2014 and has been impressive in his professional career to this point. If Travis can continue to hit at this rate and improve his power, there’s no reason to think he can’t — at 22 — earn a promotion to Triple-A at some point next season.

Pitcher of the year: Jorge Marban, RHP — Pat Light may be the bigger name with greater potential, but Marban’s Double-A numbers were much more impressive over more innings of work. The 26-year-old wasted no time proving he belongs in the Red Sox’s organization after pitching in the Independent League and in Australia from 2012 through 2014. Marban made eight appearances for High-A Salem before being promoted to Portland, where he posted a 1.36 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 24 relief appearances. Those efforts earned him a callup to Triple-A in mid-August and have him on his way to a shot at the big leagues.

Biggest surprise: Marco Hernandez, INF — Hernandez was nothing more than compensation for dumping Felix Doubront off to the Cubs. Expectations were never high for the 23-year-old shortstop, but boy has he shattered those bestowed upon him. Hernandez boasted a .290 TAv, .375 wOBA and led the team in OPS (.832). Meanwhile, he was an everyday shortstop in a farm system loaded with talented infielders. By mid-July, Hernandez was playing in Triple-A Pawtucket, where he’s yet to match his Double-A production offensively. Hernandez has still been solid defensively, however. He’s seen time at second and third base in Pawtucket and has increased his utility potential.

Biggest disappointment: Manuel Margot, OF — It may be unfair to judge a 20-year-old for poor production in Double-A, but given the expectations and where Margot ranks among prospects within the organization, it’s still a disappointment. The fact that he was even promoted from High-A in June was surprising enough. He posted a respectable .273 TAv with Salem, but certainly didn’t seem ready for bigger challenges. Things, of course, only got worse in Portland as he finished the season with a .268 TAv while his K% ballooned to 12.8 percent over 63 games. The good news is he finished the season strong, batting .325 (29-for-89) over the final 22 games, so his status as a top-flight prospect is safely intact.

High-A Salem

Player of the year: Wendell Rijo, 2B — Rijo powered his way into this spot with a strong finish to 2015. The 20-year-old second baseman hit .283 after Aug. 3 to raise his TAv to .264 for the season and make his case for a promotion by some point next year. Rijo isn’t a standout prospect, but he’s young and has plenty of room to grow. One thing that could help Rijo going forward is limiting his strikeouts. He sported a .321 BABIP this season, but also struck out at a 20.7 percent rate. If he can make more consistent contact and improve his plate discipline the rest of his numbers should go up as well. But that’s just one criticism. Overall, there’s much like about Rijo and this season was a step in the right direction.

Pitcher of the year: Ty Buttrey, RHP — This was an important season for Buttrey. The righty was signed to a $1 million overslot deal after being drafted in the fourth round in 2012, but had yet to live up to the promise that came with it. Buttrey, at 22 years old, finally changed that in 2015. He made four dominant starts in Low-A Greenville before being promoted to High-A, and continued to pitch well, finishing with a 3.71 FIP over 21 starts in Salem. One slight on Buttrey heading into the season was that he had yet to fill into his 6-foot-6 frame. He wasn’t exactly overpowering hitters this season — his 6.30 K/9 was down from previous seasons — but his command improved and his walks decreased.

Biggest surprise: Aaron Wilkerson, RHP — Wilkerson is 26 years old and threw his first minor league pitch in 2014, yet he’s quickly become a player worth watching over the coming years. He was signed by the Red Sox out of the independent leagues during the 2014 season. Since then he’s shown the kind of command and strikeout ability that could one day turn him into a major league reliever. The righty started this year in Low-A Greenville, but after five appearances was promoted to Salem and shined, sporting a 1.90 FIP and 9.68 K/P over 17 appearances, 12 of which were starts. He was at his best in May when he posted a 0.71 ERA in 25.1 innings in which he allowed just 11 hits and six walks. Performances such as that earned him a promotion to Double-A Portland in August. He finished with a 2.58 FIP over seven starts.

Biggest disappointment: Trey Ball, LHP — It’s too early to judge Ball as a 21-year-old prospect, especially after just two full seasons as a pro. But Red Sox’s fans concerns over the 2013 seventh overall pick’s performance thus far are justified. Ball’s struggles in 2014 were well-documented. This season was actually worse. Ball owned a 5.13 FIP over 25 starts, and saw an increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts compared to 2014. And unlike last year, he didn’t get better as the season progressed. Ball was solid in his final outing of the season, allowing two runs and striking out six over five innings. However, he posted a 10.80 ERA in his six starts prior. The lefty still has time to fill out his lanky 6-foot-6 frame and further develop his secondary pitches, particularly his curveball, which he started throwing as a junior in high school, but he has much to prove going into next season.

Low-A Greenville

Player of the year: Rafael Devers, 3B — Watching Devers, at 18 years old, blossom into one of the top prospects in the Red Sox’s organization was fun. The third baseman made a name for himself after a scalding hot start to the season in which he hit .382 through June 1. Since then his stock has risen. He garnered much attention on the interwebs and even drew comparisons to Robinson Cano — not bad company at such a young age. Devers eventually leveled out, finishing with a .282 TAv and .352 wOBA, and struck out at a 16.5 percent rate, but there’s no denying his potential. His solid build, fluid swing and plus power make for a nice offensive player. He his a defensive liability, so perhaps a move to first base or to a full-time DH role is in his future.

Pitcher of the year: Michael Kopech, RHP — Kopech’s season was cut short due to a 50-game suspension for illegal use of a stimulant, but it was an exceptional year for the 19-year-old nonetheless. The 2014 first-round pick showed overpowering stuff that could one day put him atop a major league rotation, posting a 9.69 K/9 to go with a 3.34 FIP over 15 starts. He allowed just two total runs over 15 innings in the three starts before his suspension, and gave up no more than three runs — a number he reached in just three outings — in all of his starts. Losing Kopech for the final 50 games was a disappointment for Greenville, but shouldn’t be a setback for the righty as he tries to make quick work of the minor leagues.

Biggest surprise: Javier Guerra, SS — Guerra entered the season as a mid-tier Red Sox prospect, but his value rose considerably after an impressive 2015. It was well-established that Guerra is an outstanding shortstop with good range, instincts and plus arm strength. But his bat was supposed to be his downfall. Well, turns out he can hit, too. Guerra far exceeded offensive expectations both from an average and power standpoint, posting a .280 TAv to go with 15 home runs and a .171 ISO. Guerra’s power numbers stood out the most given he’s still undersized. And at 19 years old, he’s bound to add more strength.

Biggest disappointment: Michael Chavis, 3B — It was a rough first year for Chavis, the team’s top pick in 2014. He struggled both in the field and at the plate this season. But especially at the plate. Chavis held a .244 TAv and struck out at an absurd 30.6 percent rate — 30.6 percent!!! — the latter being by far the most alarming. It’s something that needs to change in the coming years. He did hit 16 home runs and finished with a .182 ISO, but that swing-for-the-fences approach hindered his overall production. Chavis needs to shorten his swing and take more of a line-drive approach in order to improve his baffling average and strikeout numbers.

Top photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Deven Marrero, SS/2B and Jorge Marban, RHP

Marrero’s ascension to the big leagues was faster than most expected given his low offensive production in Triple-A and the occupied infield spots on the major league club. However, injuries to the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Brock Holt have provided him with multiple call-ups to the Red Sox, even if he’s been limited to seven plate appearances and a pair of pinch-running situations. He’s yet to do much with those opportunities, but the 2012 first round pick is at least making his case for a longer major-league stint when the roster expands in September. Marrero has never projected to be an outstanding hitter, sporting a fringe-average hit tool, so his .244 true average in Triple-A this season isn’t of real concern. However, the 24-year-old has been hot since rejoining the PawSox Aug. 12, batting .307 (16-for-52) over the last 12 games. He’s recorded a base hit in all but one game since being sent back down.

Although it’s a small sample size, and only one of those hits – a home run on Sunday – has gone for extra bases, Marrero’s production should help him further his case for a return to Boston come September. Of course, the true value of Marrero lies in his glove. He’s a plus defender with a strong arm and elite athleticism, making him capable of playing anywhere in the infield. If the Red Sox are smart, Pedroia will barely, if at all, see the field for the rest of the season, and playing Josh Rutledge every day serves no long-term purpose. That should at least open some opportunities for Marrero to play second base. And, of course, any excuse to bench Pablo Sandoval and start someone else at third is a good one. Add in some offensive production on Marrero’s part and his overall value expands.

Jorge Marban’s journey to Triple-A has been a lengthy one. The 26-year-old righty flamed out in 2011 after two miserable seasons in the Rangers organization, and has since seen his baseball career take him through three years in the independent leagues before landing in the Australian Baseball League at 25 years old. He sported a 2.12 ERA and 11.65 K/9 in 24 appearances in Australia before being signed by Red Sox scout Steve Fish, who also managed Marban’s ABL team last November. Since then Marban has rapidly risen through the Sox’s system and is well on his way to earning a shot at the majors in the coming years. He started this season in High-A Salem, but has since worked his way up to Pawtucket after just 32 appearances combined in Salem and Portland, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. He posted a 1.36 ERA, 3.76 FIP and 7.09 K/9 in Double-A before being called up and making his Triple-A debut Aug. 14.

The results have been encouraging for Marban through three appearances in Pawtucket. He’s allowed just one run over 6.1 innings, striking out nine batters. This isn’t to say Marban is a sure thing, of course. He’s not the savior of Boston’s dreadful bullpen. Although he has his strengths – he mixes a nasty splitter with a mid-90s fastball that creates swings and misses at an impressive rate – Marban’s command is still a concern. He posted a 6.00 BB/9 in Portland and has already totaled three walks in his brief Triple-A stint. He also possesses a slider that needs work. However, considering how long it’s taken Marban just to get to this point, the fact that he’s ascended this quickly and is making a name for himself is encouraging enough for this season.

Double-A Portland: Manuel Margot, OF and Carlos Asuaje 2B/3B

Manuel Margot entered the season as the Red Sox’s third-ranked prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Given his natural bat-to-ball ability, his power potential and his speed and athleticism, it was a well-deserved recognition. He lived up to that hype with a solid stint in High-A Salem, sporting a .271 TAv, .339 wOBA and 113 wRC+ in 46 games before being promoted to Double-A Portland in late June at just 20 years old. Double-A, however, has been a struggle for the outfielder, especially over the past month. Margot is hitting .241 (14-for-58) in August, dropping his TAv to .250 in Portland. At this point, it’s natural to question whether or not he was ready to be promoted. Given Margot is only 20, there is certainly no need to rush him through the system. He’s had a difficult time adjusting to Double-A pitching, and his strikeout rate (14.7 percent) is the highest it’s been at any level since his summer with short-season Lowell two years ago.

Manny Margot. Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Margot excels with a fluid swing and an excellent approach. It’d be crazy not to expect his plus offensive tools to lead to results at the Double-A level. One thing hurting him, however, is his aggressiveness early in counts. That’ll catch up to him as he faces better pitching with each promotion, which is evident in the ballooning strikeout rate and the weak contact he’s generating in Portland. These flaws, and his poor numbers in Double-A overall, aren’t to say this season has been bad overall. He’s already totaled 36 stolen bases and 34 extra-base hits for the year. However, his path to the major leagues, particularly as a mainstay, may take more time than the late 2016 ETA that some had projected before the season.

Yes, we just highlighted Carlos Asuaje in last week’s prospect update. But at that time he wasn’t riding a nine-game hitting streak. He’s collected multiple hits in four of those nine games, including a four-hit effort last Wednesday. Asuaje’s numbers haven’t been particularly impressive in his first full season in Double-A, as he owns a .268 TAv and .340 wOBA in 2015. But they’re not bad for a player who projects to be nothing more than a utility player if he can reach the big leagues. Asuaje has primarily played second base this season, but he’s also seen time at third and left field. That versatility alone gives him value to an organization. Offensively he’s shown average hit potential with below-average power, but he’s good at finding the gaps for extra bases. In fact, he leads the Eastern League with seven triples this season and is also in the top half of the league with 22 doubles. His approach and knowledge of the strike zone are also positives.

High-A Salem: Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP

Teddy Stankiewicz appeared to be turning a corner. After a dreadful first three months that saw him get hit hard on numerous occasions, the righty finally started finding consistent success on the mound this season, tossing a pair of shutouts over a four-start stretch in which he struck out at least three hitters per outing. Stankiewicz was back to his early season ways on Friday, however, allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in what was arguably his worst start of the season. He seemed to struggle with his control in particular, walking one batter, hitting another and throwing two wild pitches. Although he’s been better overall, Stankiewicz is letting pitches get away from him, as he’s hit four batters over his last three starts. That inability to find the strike zone is surprising given his command – he owns a 1.75 BB/9 this season – has been one of his strengths throughout his career. Friday’s letdown upped his FIP to 4.03 for the season.

Every bad outing from Stankiewicz is notable given his failings this season. However, that shouldn’t discount the way he’s improved since mid-July. He was at his best at this time last season in Low-A Greenville and at 21 has plenty of time to develop. Let’s also not forget he came into this season with a whole new delivery, which would naturally lead to a learning curve. Perhaps his next start, which will be one of his final of the season, will be a better indicator of whether it was just a bad start amidst a string of good ones, or a sign that poor outings are still a habit. Regardless, what continues to make Stankiewicz valuable is his ability to eat innings. The righty is eighth in the Carolina League in innings pitched (123.1) and has made at least one fewer start than four of the seven hurlers in front of him. Imagine what those numbers could look like if those innings become more productive.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B

Rafael Devers is like the film Titanic. It’s nearly impossible to find a bad thing written or said about either of the two. Devers has garnered James Cameron’s film-esque praise throughout this season. Heck, he’s received plenty of attention on this site alone. Devers has earned it, of course, but we’re not here today to spend too much time drooling over his plus hit tools and 30 home run potential (although those have been pretty impressive so far). Since I’m in charge of the next paragraph and I’m no fun, we’re going to be a little picky (I promise, just a little). The one thing that’s been concerning about Devers’ approach lately has been his rising strikeout rate. Although a 17.5 percent K% isn’t terrible for an 18-year-old with plus bat speed and solid mechanics for his age, it’s worth noting this number has gotten progressively worse, whether it be due to a naturally aggressive approach or pitchers finding new ways to attack him. He held a 15.8 percent mark before the All-Star break. He’s struck out at a 23.7 percent rate since Aug. 1.

Should we be alarmed by such drastic spike? I wasn’t sure at first, so I decided to compare it to a player he’s drawn multiple similarities to: Robinson Cano. Cano played a single season of Low-A ball for Greensboro in the South Atlantic League at 19 years old in 2002. His slash line that season (.276/.321/.445) was notably similar to Devers’ 2015 marks so far (.275/.318/.433), but Cano struck out at a less eyebrow-raising 15.3 percent rate that season. So is Devers’ rise in strikeouts a concern? Yes, primarily because that has the potential to only get worse if he’s promoted to High-A next season – unless he can improve his approach. However, if you’re still hoping for Devers to become the next Cano, there’s still plenty of reason for optimism.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Allen Craig, 1B and Deven Marrero, SS 

Allen Craig, perhaps unsurprisingly for a guy with major league experience, is getting on base in Pawtucket. That’s never a bad thing, but that might be the only positive we can say for him as of this moment. Over the last seven days, Craig has gone 9-for-24, which is good – until you realize all those hits were singles. His OBP is higher than his slugging percentage, and that rings true for the entirety of Craig’s 2015 season. That’s not good for a guy whose primary position is first base. He’s gotten one extra-base hit over the last month, which was a two-run double off Norfolk Tides starter Tyler Williams on July 23rd. There’s no power there anymore.

Combine that with Craig’s startling inability to hit right-handed pitching (.214/.340/.252 in 250 PA), and you’ll see why Travis Shaw has gotten the call to the majors rather than Craig this year. The Lisfranc injury he suffered in 2013 might have just sapped the power that would’ve have made him a solid first baseman. He’s just not the same hitter, and the Red Sox can only hope that he regains any of that lost thunder in his bat sometime soon.

It can’t be easy being in the shadow of Xander Bogaerts, but Deven Marrero keeps plugging away. What first sticks out about the former Arizona State Sun Devil is his fielding. It’s not flashy, but you get the sense that glovework comes naturally to Marrero. Fundamentally sound and able to make just about every play, he’s widely regarded as a plus defensive shortstop. However, as is the case with many glove-first middle infielders, he’s an unremarkable hitter as well. To his credit, Marrero hits tons of liners, but he’ll get beat on the inside half when he can’t get his hands inside the ball. At this point, it’s safe to say he’s ticketed for a utility infielder role in the majors, and his fielding will keep him there for a long while.

Double-A Portland: Manuel Margot, OF

It seems like a long while since Manny Margot was mentioned in the webpages of BP Boston. If you were worried about the man who set fire to the Carolina League, fear no more: Margot’s been hard at work adjusting to Double-A baseball. The one thing we can definitively say about him so far in Portland is that he’s still getting used to it. In the long run, that’s quite alright for a guy like him, since he’s four and a half years younger than the average age in the Eastern League. He already has the same number of extra-base hits in Portland in 160 PA than he did at Salem in 198 PA. On top of that, when you combine his time at both Salem and Portland, Margot has had a grand total of five plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. The pitches are going faster and breaking sharper, but Margot keeps on getting better.

High-A Salem: Yoilan Cerse, OF and Jose Vinicio, SS

Another Cuban import, Cerse was seen as a future super-sub for the Sox. He’s a sign that the Red Sox see value in having prospects learn several positions to increase versatility and up their chances for success. While fellow Cuban Yoan Moncada is a fantastic hitter, what Cerse brings to the table is his speed. His stats from Cuban leagues won’t explicitly show this, as he hit in the three-hole for the majority of his time there. As a guy who has been out of organized baseball for a year, Cerse has been tasked with getting his plate discipline and baserunning instincts up to snuff. He’s done pretty well with the former so far, as he’s walked almost as much as he’s struck out in Salem. The latter is a bit of an issue, since he’s been caught stealing a tad bit too much for someone whose best tool is his speed. Nevertheless, it’s only been 44 games for the 28-year-old, so he’s got plenty of time to sort things out before he moves up.

Vinicio’s not really been talked about lately, due to the fact that he got placed on Salem’s disabled list on July 19th with an undisclosed injury. It’s a real shame, as Vinicio had been red-hot for most of July, posting a .333/.364/.405 line in 12 games. Rail-thin and a mere 160 pounds, Vinicio’s game is built around his superb fielding and good speed, but he’ll tend to rush plays in the field when he doesn’t have any reason to do so. His hit tool is decent, but he needs to put on more weight so he can utilize it more effectively, and that’s where the problems lie – Vinicio has had issues putting on pounds since his debut in the minors. Where he goes from here is strongly connected to how he can physically grow and develop, and if Vinicio cannot add strength, he might be stuck in the minors for a while.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis, 3B

In almost any other minor league system, Chavis would be getting all of the reps at third base. In the Red Sox system, however, there’s this Rafael Devers dude taking his spot. So not only will he get reps there every now and then, he’ll reportedly play some outfield as well. Chavis is a solid fielder, and so as long as he sticks in an OF spot long enough, there’s every reason to believe he’ll get it down. What’s more important here is that he’s trying to fine-tune his approach at the plate in Greenville. A 113-20 K/BB ratio looks bad on the surface, but Chavis was drafted right out of high school, and he’ll need time for his pitch recognition skills to be refined. It’s the one facet of his game that needs a ton of work. Mechanically, there’s almost nothing wrong with his swing at all – good bat speed, quick hands, and he’s able to get a lot of backspin when he hits with power. So while the stats might look worrisome, don’t fret – this is just the case of a very talented 19-year-old getting his reps.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Margot’s calling card is otherworldly athletic potential, but he’s also a phenomenal example of how the Red Sox are poised to compete over the next several seasons, even though 2014 and 2015 look like a cratering for the franchise.

Margot profiles as an above-average center fielder with defense and power. On a team that already has one potential game-changing center fielder with defense and power, it’s easy to see why the quick reaction might be to ship him up to Philadelphia to finally get a Cole Hamels. After all, why would the team need two? And they’ve got Jackie Bradley Jr. in Pawtucket! And Rusney Castillo! Why doesn’t this team just suck it up and deal someone and help the team today?

The Red Sox have depth, both on the major league team — yes, I know, they’re not good right now, fine — and in the minors. Margot is a fascinating prospect, filled to the gills with athleticism and talent, but coming into the season, he was the third-ranked prospect on BP’s Top 10 Red Sox prospect list, and ranked #61 overall on the BP Top 101. Blake Swihart and Henry Owens rated above him, and other prospects such as Eduardo Rodriguez and Rafael Devers rated very closely to him on the Top 101. Other prospect evaluators give the Red Sox and their prospects the same shrift: Boston typically rates as one of the top-10 minor-league systems in all of baseball.

While a stacked minor-league system certainly is no guarantee of future success it is an indicator of both talent and value.

Like the Cubs and the Dodgers, the Red Sox have it all: a stacked minor-league system combined with the resources to add major-league talent through any means necessary: domestic or international free agency, taking on hefty contracts, etc. That’s how the Sox added not-quite outfielder Hanley Ramirez in the offseason this previous year, and incredibly expensive fourth outfielder Castillo in August 2014.

But the last thing the Red Sox should do is act rashly. While a stacked minor-league system certainly is no guarantee of future success — I’m looking at you, early 2010’s Rangers — it is an indicator of both talent and value. The Red Sox have cultivated a powerful amount of depth in the minor leagues, and they’ve resisted the urge to deal substantially from that depth for short-term fixes.

As a result, the Sox appear holding pat despite a down pair of seasons. While that may appear to be “inactive” or “wishy-washy”, it may also prove that discretion is the better part of valor. By sitting on their minor league depth, and waiting until it matures to make moves, they accept a heightened level of risk: they’re waiting until the last possible moment to see if prospects will pan out, and many (Gavin Cecchini?) may now. However, this is a level of risk that a team with the Red Sox’ resources can afford.

Of course a player like Margot — or perhaps more accurately Jackie Bradley Jr. — may not emerge as a superstar or even a full-time starter. Every prospect won’t turn into a hero, even the ones who look like they’re a sure thing. At the same time, by dealing prospects before they mature for established big-league players, the Sox run the risk of shipping off a Jeff Bagwell-level talent that just can’t be found on the open market so easily.

By dealing prospects before they mature for established big-league players, the Sox run the risk of shipping off a Jeff Bagwell-level talent that just can’t be found on the open market so easily.

By waiting, the Red Sox give themselves the flexibility to make moves that suit their needs at any given time, rather than cross their fingers and hope that they make the right move at the right time to force a window open. Dealing a player like Margot now, limits the risk that he’ll pull a Bradley Jr. and fail at the highest level.

Playing the waiting game allows the team to leverage its financial resources to fill in the gaps. While that isn’t a perfect process (Pablo Sandoval better improve his overall production soon), it’s a far sight better than dealing Eduardo Rodriguez for a middle reliever and watching him blossom elsewhere in an attempt to grasp at a win-now, not-later strategy. Cash can paper a lot of holes, but it’s hard to buy a premium player at any price.

Look at the New York Mets as an example: the Mets have a very nice farm system, with both high-level and low-level prospects with lots of talent. However, the Mets don’t have the financial resources that the Red Sox do. They’ve played their way into contention, but have come to a tough position: in order to stay in contention, they may need to turn some of those minor-league chips into big-league talent. Without money, the Mets are limited in their options: deal away prospects with substantive upside and try to shift the window closer to now, or hold pat, and hope that those prospects become the big-league stars of the future.

(The Diamondbacks are doing the same thing by selling prospect Touki Touissant to Atlanta for cash, a move that seems likely to push the window slightly closer to the present at the cost of the future. It also seems ridiculous.)

On the other side, there’s the Angels, a team with massive financial resources but who has already dealt heavily from their minor league stocks over the last several seasons. Today, they’re left with a team that needs to succeed soon, or they risk missing what could be the last window for contention for the near future. The San Diego Padres and Operation “Trade All Your Prospects For Outfielders” fit in this category as well.

2015 is teaching us that Betts and Bogaerts are keepers, but may not be the eight-win stars the projectionists might have pointed at (yet). It’s showing us that Rodriguez might be a keeper, but that Joe Kelly might not be, and that Rick Porcello — maybe — will be a back-of-the-rotation piece, not a front-of-the-rotation ace.

Coming into 2016, the team might have hit some growing pains, but they still have the ability to shift the discussion any direction they choose, without necessarily ruining chances for the short-term OR the long-term. Margot is another piece in a long and robust pipeline of talent, and holding him until he reveals his true self at the major-league (or near-major-league) level allows the Sox to assess strengths and weaknesses at the right time.

It might not be Margot who saves the Red Sox. I mean, it could be, but it’s more likely that it’ll be several players who save the Sox and guide them towards another golden age. Bryce Harper or Mike Trout alone don’t make a team a contender. No, it’ll likely be a team effort, and with the combination of depth and finance, the Sox are in as good position as any team (well, along with Chicago’s and Los Angeles’ National League franchises) to succeed in both the long and the short-term.

Take a deep breath and relax. Manny Margot is coming. And if he doesn’t work out, one of the next few guys probably will. The Red Sox can afford to find out. That’s the power of depth.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.net

Triple-A Pawtucket: Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, and Pat Light, RHP

It might seem odd that Jackie Bradley Jr. is still on a list of Fenway’s Future players, but that is the case as he has remained at Pawtucket despite a need for him in Boston. The reason for keeping Bradley Jr. in the minor leagues is unclear, though last week Bryan Grosnick outlined several potential motives. Regardless, he is still playing everyday at Pawtucket, and playing very well. It is no secret that Bradley Jr.’s primary issue in his limited stints in the major leagues has been hitting. In his 543 major league plate appearances, almost a whole season’s worth, he has a .192/.266/.273 line, which equates to a .203 TAv. It was never anticipated that he would be a star at the plate, but that line is ugly. What makes the matter really puzzling is that through 631 plate appearances at Triple-A he had a .286/.362/.445 line, which is roughly a .301 TAv. The jump to the major leagues is a big one, but that drastic a change in performance seems odd. Still, it really seems like Bradley Jr. does not have much more to learn at the minor league level.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox appear to have seen enough of him flailing away at the major league level and intend on keeping him in Pawtucket for the foreseeable future. He is the best defensive outfielder in the organization and maybe in the game, but cannot break through with the bat to hold a major league roster spot. Now, while he does not have much to learn at Triple-A, keeping him there could be part of an effort to make him look shiny to potential trade partners, or part of a longer term plan of getting him ready for a spot in the major league outfield in 2016. Shane Victorino will be out of the mix next year but things will still be crowded with Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Hanley Ramirez all likely to keep their spots.

Pat Light is moving up the ranks.

While Bradley Jr. is having trouble earning a promotion, Pat Light was promoted from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Pawtucket last week. Light’s move to the bullpen has served as a catalyst for his ascent through the minor leagues. Earlier this year I checked in on Light when he had struck out a third of the 27 batters. Well, not much has changed in his performance over the next 91. He posted a 27.1 strikeout rate for Portland, allowing fewer than one runner to reach base per inning pitched, and that is even with difficulty in walking batters (9.3 walk rate). Reports are that he has ditched his main secondary pitches in favor of his splitter, which mixed with his mid-90s fastball has been very effective. If Light can maintain his velocity and effectiveness in Pawtucket he may be due for a promotion to the big leagues later this year. The major league team could use a hard-throwing reliever who can work some of the 6^th and 7^th innings ahead of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. That pitcher could also come in the form of Joe Kelly and his 96 mile-an-hour fastball, but the Sox seem content to keep trying him as a starter, so help in the ‘pen will need to come from elsewhere.

Double-A Portland: Oscar Tejeda, IF/OF

Of the players with at least 100 plate appearances for the Sea Dogs, Tejeda is the fourth best hitter by wRC+ (111). He has spent time in the Red Sox, Pirates, and Nationals organizations, getting all the way to Triple-A in the Pirates system in 2013. His .304/.328/.415 line in 180 PA this year in Portland is impressive, but is really a bit of an outlier for him at the double-A level, as he has previously posted seasons of 75 wRC+, 76, and 39 (in 492, 221, and 57 PA, respectively). On his fourth trip through the level, at age 25, he seems to have figured things out a bit, but as I said it is the clear outlier and there is still time for our old friend regression to take hold of things. With all that said, it is not his bat that makes Tejeda interesting, it is his positional versatility. At Baseball Prospectus he is listed as a left fielder, at FanGraphs he is listed as a second baseman/shortstop, and at MiLB.com he is listed as a third baseman. The lack of consistent listing reflects how he has moved around this season in Portland. According to the lineups posted at SoxProspects.com he has started two games at short, 19 at third, 11 in left field, and six in right field. If he is going to get a ticket to the big leagues it will be due to this ability to play defense all over the diamond, although even with that a future major league roster spot seems unlikely.

High-A Salem: Manuel Margot, OF, Trey Ball, LHP, and Williams Jerez, LHP

Margot is a top-five prospect in the Red Sox system with all five tools, already earning the ‘honor’ of being mentioned in many Cole Hamels trade rumours. His season has been of the up and down sort. In April he posted an .891 OPS, and avoided striking out in his first 69 plate appearances. Then May rolled around and Margot’s performance went down with it, posting a .310 OPS in 37 plate appearances. Some of this downturn was likely a result of the shoulder injury that eventually landed him on the disabled list for the last few weeks of May. The good news is that since returning from the DL he has been back to his April ways at the plate (.870 OPS so far in June). He has yet to draw a walk since coming back, which is problematic, but he is still striking out at a wonderfully low rate (4.3%).

The Red Sox had the seventh overall pick in the 2015 first-year player draft that was held last Monday, a spot at which they picked in the 2013 draft when they selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball from New Castle Chrysler High School in Indiana. Unfortunately, thus far Ball has not lived up to his status as a first-round pick. In 100.0 innings at Low-A Greenville last year, he had a 4.68 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and a less than exciting 68:39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite the rough year at Low-A he was advanced to High-A to start this season, and things have not gone much better. In 58.2 innings this year he has a 3.99 ERA, 5.02 FIP, with an ugly 37:25 K:BB. In fact, he has walked more batters than he has struck out in four of his 11 starts, but struck out nine and only walked two in his most recent start, which is hopefully a step in the right direction. Overall, not a lot has gone well for Mr. Ball. At 21 he is still somewhat young for the level, but this is not at all the sort of thing that the organization wants to see from a top-level draft pick.

Williams Jerez is an interesting story, as he does not come to pitching naturally, but rather is a converted outfielder. After struggling to hit in his first three seasons in the Red Sox system, Jerez became a pitcher in 2014 and his potential future now looks brighter. In 2014, between rookie ball and short season A-ball, he struck out 40 of the 150 batters he faced, only allowed 14 runs, and did not allow a home run. He started this year at low-A Greenville, pitched 39.1 excellent innings (2.06 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 43:10 K:BB), and recently earned himself a promotion to a Salem. Given that Jerez is still new to pitching – he only has 77.0 innings under his belt – it should not be a real surprise that he is still a work in progress. His best bet to advance through the system is as a reliever where he can rear back and fire his mid-90s fastball most of the time and avoid needing to develop command of secondary pitches and the ability to navigate through a lineup multiple times. His progress is worth tracking.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B

Rafael Devers is an impressive young player.

The Greenville team has a number of interesting players, and chief among them is 18-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers, in his first season of A-ball after crushing things in rookie ball, has been tremendous with the bat. Through his first 200 plate appearances he was hitting .321/.354/.455, with 18 extra-base hits. While he is only walking in 4.5% of his plate appearances, which is a huge drop from the rate he had in rookie ball, he is hitting well enough and for enough power that the lack of walks is not really affecting his value. He will need to demonstrate more of a command on the strike zone as he progresses through the system, or it will stall his advancement. For now, though, he can just focus on continuing to dominate his older opponents.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Viewed through the prism of offseason expectations, that’s a pretty disappointing sentence. The Sox were supposed to have a powerful offense, average pitching staff and enviable depth. Instead, they rank just 19th in the league with 3.97 runs scored per game, 25th in the league with 4.79 runs allowed per game and have yet to see secondary players like Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rusney Castillo make much of an impact.

Things have been better lately, sure. The Sox went 5-5 on a tough West Coast road trip and won last night’s game at home, and thanks to lackluster performances from the rest of the division, they’re just three games out in the hunt for the AL East.

Still, this squad has some serious flaws, and when I asked the BP Boston staff if they thought the Sox would finish the season with more than 81 wins, I was expecting a debate.

I did not get a debate.

Of the 10 BP Boston writers who got back to me, every one said the Red Sox would indeed finish over .500. Reasons cited include everything from an inevitable (we hope) bounce-back from the offense, some positive regression to the mean for the rotation, the weak AL East and the likelihood that Ben Cherington and co. will make a trade to bolster the 2015 club if they’re close. They generally ceded that the Sox need help in the rotation and the bullpen and expressed concern over the injury bug hitting the catcher position, yet none was swayed to vote against Boston being at least an average team.

Here are their responses:

Nick Canelas:
Yes. There is too much talent from top to bottom for this team to continue to struggle like it has over the past month. David Ortiz is better than a .723 OPS, Mike Napoli will either hit or sit, and Rusney Castillo won’t stay in Pawtucket forever. Meanwhile, the starting rotation has finally woken, which is enough to convince me this team is at least average.

Matt Collins:
Yes. Very little has gone right for the Red Sox this year. The pitching staff has ranged from merely acceptable to downright terrible. The offense has shown flashes of what it should be, but overall it’s been a huge disappointment. With all of that, they’re still hanging right around an even record. The offense should definitely improve, especially with the eventual addition of Rusney Castillo. The pitching staff won’t ever be great, but the numbers suggest they should at least be better. There is plenty of depth in Pawtucket to cover any of the injuries that always come in the middle of the season. I would be surprised if Boston wasn’t at least in contention for a playoff spot around the trade deadline, meaning they should be motivated to swing a trade to improve this team at some point. I’m more pessimistic about this team than I was to start the year, but it’s still an above-.500 team.

Brett Cowett:
Yes, they’ll finish over .500. Sure, it hasn’t been fun to watch, but these guys are not this bad. The pitching wasn’t going to be historically bad – and hasn’t been that way at all lately – and the offense isn’t going to look awful forever. Remember the first week of the season? That’s pretty much what we can expect. Lots of offense in a low-scoring league is going to do wonders. We just have to take it week-by-week instead of day-by-day.

Bryan Grosnick:
Will the Sox win more than half their games this season? I kind of think they have to. That’s not to say that I think the team, as currently constructed, is a .500 team. They might be. But I’m not certain that the front office in Beantown can afford a third disastrous season in four, nevermind that these years of futility sandwich a World Series cap. No, I think this team will, come hell or high water, muster up the moves to add enough surplus talent to eke out a winning percentage north of .520, and the playoffs are still in play.

What I’m not sure about is what price they’re willing to pay to hire some real major-league pitchers. My guess is this: godspeed, Manuel Margot.

Matt Huegel:
I’ll say yes. The offense has been slumping recently, but there’s no reason to believe they won’t hit and be one of the best offenses in the league. Mookie is still growing and adjusting at the plate, as is Bogaerts. I see no reason that Napoli won’t still turn it around and get white hot at some point, like he tends to do (though I am perplexed that he still hasn’t shown any signs of life). I think the pitching will be serviceable. I’m not really worried about Porcello or Miley, I think they’ll be at least serviceable to pretty good (in Porcello’s case). Buchholz is doing his thing in a bad and good way, but he’ll at least win some games I believe. Joe Kelly is really the wild card. I want to like him, but growing pessimistic. But could also see it clicking for him and really going on a big run. I think it’ll be good enough for .500 overall, but not confident in going much beyond that.

Bryan Joiner:
Yes. I don’t think there’s a compelling argument that the Red Sox will be any worse than they have been so far, and the truth is they’re not all that bad. They’re not good, either, but they have plenty of room to get there. The rotation has started to put some good starts together and David Ortiz and Mike Napoli both homered last night, hopefully signaling returns to form, and they’re just two guys in a stacked offense. This isn’t last year or 2012; this workaday rotation means the Sox will likely stay near .500 for awhile, but slight improvements from month-to-month add up. If they simply win one more game than they lose in two of the remaining months, they’re above .500 for the season. Any better and they’re much better. So yeah. It’s gonna happen.

Matthew Kory:
Yes. Considering the way things have gone so far, the Red Sox are pretty fortunate. Things could always get worse, as the team has enjoyed mostly good health outside of the catcher position, but so far the Red Sox haven’t played well and are not far back in a weak division. With the track record of the players involved, it makes sense that some if not all of the under-performance seen in right field, at first base, in center field, shortstop, and at catcher will correct itself. The rotation should start to resemble its FIP more than its ERA. The defense isn’t ever going to be great and the bullpen seems unlikely to do the same, but mere adequacy in those areas should allow a sleeping offense to shine when they awake.

Ryan Morrison:
I’m going yes — the talent is there, and there’s reason to believe that guys like Swihart and Bogaerts are more likely to get better than worse as the season goes on. Maybe more importantly, this is the first season in a while in which the Red Sox might finish just over .500 accidentally. If they’re hovering right around .500, they may still sell at the deadline – but the players helping to prop up the team are all young or on good multi-year contracts. If guys on expiring deals like Buchholz, Masterson, Victorino and, to some extent, Napoli are traded, I don’t know that the team would end up losing more games with fresh blood. There probably isn’t a way to sell out on the end of 2015 while keeping the 2016 plan intact.

Dustin Palmateer:
There are a number of perfectly good reasons why this Red Sox assemblage might not finish above .500 in 2015. Here’s one: through Monday’s games, both their -33 run differential and .443 third-order winning percentage rank near (or at) the bottom of the American League. Here’s another: the rotation stinks!

On the bright side, it seems like half the roster has underachieved — Mike Napoli’s posted a .214 TAv, David Ortiz only has five home runs, Mookie Betts has a sub-.300 on-base percentage, the starting rotation hasn’t lived up to expectations of mediocrity, etc. Boston should see plenty of improvement from regression candidates alone during the season’s remaining 120-some games, and there aren’t enough players currently overachieving to negate the expected gains. An underperforming roster (that should improve) in a division of flawed teams — plus a strong incentive to avoid another last-place finish — should be enough to push the Red Sox on to the good side of .500 by September.

Alex Skillin:
Yes. The Red Sox have played some pretty ugly baseball at times, but their pitching staff has underperformed (in some cases, woefully), and they’ve gotten nearly league-worst production on offense at multiple positions. Given all the talent in the club’s lineup, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox continuing to struggle so much offensively. They’ll also have the benefit of playing loads of games against AL East squads that are scuffling just as much as they are.

This team will certainly struggle to reach 90 wins, but considering we should expect improvement pretty much across the board (plus a potential boost from Rusney Castillo and any starter Ben Cherington goes out and trades for), a winning record seems well within reach.

So then, there you have it. According to our merry band of analysts, the Red Sox should at least finish .500 this season, and should keep you engaged and entertained all summer long.

As to whether the Red Sox will right the ship in time to make the playoffs? Well, that’s a question for a different day.

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