It’ll never be time for “on pace for” jokes, but if the Red Sox do indeed hit 36 grand slams this year, that’ll be incredible at the very least. So let’s look at the sextet of slams this team has hit, and enjoy each and every one of them, because after last year, I don’t think we’ll ever fully appreciate the of majesty of a four-RBI knock. Soak it all in while you can.

Grand Slam #1 — April 7th

It says a lot about how hard that ball was hit when all the left fielder does is turn to watch it.

Xander Bogaerts had already lashed a two-run double in the first inning by this point, and I guess he felt the need to pour it on. Jacob Faria’s 3-2 pitch was a flat fastball right down the middle, and Bogaerts got all of it and sent it into orbit. It goes without saying, but Bogaerts with two healthy wrists is a monster.

This was sort of a cathartic moment for the Red Sox, as they hit their first grand slam since 2016, and the offense finally broke out in a big way against a team that had held them to 11 runs in four games the week before. The cure to those offensive woes? Score eight runs in the first two innings against said opponent. Four out of every five managers would agree.

Grant Slam #2 — April 10th

Splitters aren’t supposed to be left in the top of the zone. That grand slam is a pretty good example why.

With the game getting wildly out of hand for the New York Yankees, Aaron Boone left Chasen Shreve in the game to face a gauntlet of Red Sox hitters, who had already chased Luis Severino from the game after five innings of five-run ball. It already wasn’t going well, with the Sox scoring five times in the frame already, then Shreve left a splitter up in the zone that Betts turned into a souvenir.

If you’re going to miss with a splitter, miss down, since it’s a lot harder to hit a ball 400 feet if it’s in the dirt. That’s not going to do a lot of good for Shreve now, obviously, but it’s nice to know.

Grand Slam #3 — April 11th

The very next day? You betcha.

J.D. Martinez wasted zero time in clobbering a first-pitch splitter that hung over the center of the plate. Masahiro Tanaka’s splitter was certainly lower than Shreve’s, but still not low enough. This game had already been marred by David Price losing feeling in his hand and Gary Sanchez blasting two dingers, so seeing Martinez bring the Red Sox back into the game just like that was very exciting.

Of course, this was also the Joe Kelly Fight Club game, so the Red Sox would go on to lose, albeit in a combative way. But at least it was fun, as fun as a loss can be.

Grand Slam #4 — April 18th

This is probably the first pitch that wasn’t outright terrible. Tyler Skaggs kind of hangs a curveball that, to his credit, does end up at the bottom of the zone, but it also hovered over the heart of the plate. It wouldn’t have been so bad if he hadn’t already thrown two curveballs in the plate appearance, giving Rafael Devers an idea of what to look for. He was all over it, and knocked it over the new right field fence in Anaheim for his first career grand slam.

As with the other games in Anaheim, this one was a blowout. The Red Sox hit three homers and the pitching staff combined to only allow eight baserunners all game. At that point, a grand slam feels a little like showboating, but hey, I’m not an officer of the fun police.

Grand Slam #5 — April 20th

Three straight singles to left field to lead off the inning, and Kendall Graveman’s day was done. The Oakland Athletics elect to bring in Emilio Pagan, and before NESN goes to a commercial break, you see that shot of Mitch Moreland and the Red Sox coaches looking at some advance scouting reports. Once they come back to the game, Dave O’Brien hypes up Moreland a little bit, and then Moreland obliterates the first pitch he sees from Pagan.

That almost seems too good to be true, but seriously, that actually happened. The timing and camera shots could not have been better. Pagan hung a slider that caught the center of the plate — where have we seen that before, I wonder? — and Moreland was not about to let a mistake go unpunished. Or at least MLB’s website calls it a slider. I don’t know. It was a garbage pitch regardless. Do better, Emilio.

Grand Slam #6 — April 30th

Bogaerts’ grand slams always seem to have a certain majesty to them, don’t they?

Jason Hammel seemingly tries to jam Bogaerts with a high inside fastball, but Bogaerts, as O’Brien said, jumped all over it. On a 3-2 count yet again, Bogaerts gets a fastball to clobber, and clobber it he did. The Red Sox were sputtering here, as Eduardo Rodriguez was 1. not sharp and 2. getting squeezed by the C.B. Bucknor Strike Zone™, so they really needed the offense to come alive, and so it did, thanks to Bogaerts. Bonus points are awarded to Christian Vazquez for his dance in the dugout.

When a team ties a record for grand slams a year after hitting none of them, there’s no way you don’t try and appreciate what they’ve done. This team is good! Maybe not .750-win-percentage good, but they’re really, really good. The power’s back on, and the Red Sox are lighting it up. Here’s to more grand slams and great moments over the next five months. It’s going to be one hell of a ride.

Header photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to talk about how good the Red Sox are right now. They’re really, really good — two games better than the Mets, even! Still, as weird as it might be to say, some spotty performances and injury mishaps could say that the Sox haven’t even hit their actual ceiling just yet. As ridiculous as the Red Sox have been to open this season, what we’ve seen may not even be their best selves.

The bullpen is the most obvious complaint in the early going. The season kicked off with an unfortunate late-inning implosion, after all. Boston’s league-leading pitching numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they currently roster seven arms with ERAs higher than 4.00 when pitching out of the ‘pen — Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, Marcus Walden, Hector Velazquez, and Carson Smith. Craig Kimbrel is an eldritch bullpen horror and Bobby Poyner looks like a nice middle-inning/lefty specialist find, but the team’s potential answers in high-leverage, late-inning scenarios seem limited. A lot of these guys are underperforming their peripherals, and Smith in particular should improve as he settles in as a healthy contributor for the first time since 2015. Still, this is an area I could really see the Red Sox addressing at the trade deadline, as they could benefit greatly from one or two more reliable arms.

Offensively, the Red Sox have looked simultaneously impressive and inconsistent. Runs were a little hard to come by in the early going, as they put up four or fewer in six of the first seven games (two of which went into extras), but they’ve been flowing fairly regularly ever since. Mookie Betts has been ridiculous, as have Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez. Last year’s power drought feels like ancient history.

And yet, there’s room for a little more there, too. J.D. Martinez is heating up, but he’s still far from his lofty 2017 level and even a ways off from the slightly more modest seasons before that. He’s striking out a little more than usual, and walking a little less. Andrew Benintendi is walking quite a bit and his contact rate is up, but that contact has been weaker — only 17.8 percent of his batted balls are classified as hard-hit on Fangraphs, way down from his 34.3 percent mark last season. Rafael Devers is enduring some growing pains, slugging almost 100 points worse than his 58-game taste of the majors last season.

It’s a safe bet these trends will fix themselves before long, because all three of these hitters are just more talented than we’ve seen from them so far. Martinez probably isn’t going to slug nearly .700 again, but he’s a more disciplined hitter than we’ve seen to this point. He’s also absolutely crushing the ball — a whopping 64 percent of his batted balls are hit hard, across from only seven percent soft contact. Benintendi and Devers are young, but considering what we know about them as prospects, better days should be on the horizon. Even the “bad” version of Benintendi we’ve seen so far has an OBP over .400 and a walk rate near 19 percent in the two-hole of the lineup right now.

Another dimension at play here is that the Boston Sports Injury Plague of 2018 seems to be nipping at the Red Sox heels. Xander Bogaerts hit the 15-day DL almost immediately, cracking a bone in his foot on an awkward slide into the Tampa Bay Rays’ dugout. While the Red Sox seemed to have lucked out in losing him for only about two weeks, the injury drudged up unfortunate memories of seeing about half the Boston Celtics’ roster end their seasons just a few days apart.

Bogaerts will be back soon, but he’s not the only player missing time, either: Eduardo Rodriguez only just returned, Drew Pomeranz is on the way, and Tyler Thornburg is… somewhere. Dustin Pedroia’s new bionic leg is still a work in progress, but he could be ready to go sometime early in May. Between Rodriguez, Pomeranz, and Pedroia, that’s about seven wins (per fWAR) from last year’s team currently sitting on the DL. No team makes it through the year without injuries, and the Red Sox will certainly see other guys miss games, but getting that group back will help.

There’s also the curious case of Mr. David Price, who has managed to make a sterling 2.25 ERA start to the season feel a little nerve-wracking. Three of Price’s four starts have been great, as he’s only allowed one run combined between them. Then there’s the New York start — on April 11, Price allowed four runs in only one inning before leaving the game due to numbness in his pitching hand. It seems that Price is fine, especially in an impressive follow-up performance Tuesday against Mike Trout and the Angels. Still, it was a weird injury that still hasn’t been fully explained, and further issues with Price could compromise what currently looks to be impressive depth in the starting rotation. Considering the city of Boston seems to be cursed by the Pagan God of Sports Injuries, it’s something that will have to sit in the back of fans’ minds for the time being.

These are all things that, in a vacuum, could lead to an even better Red Sox team in 2018 than we’ve seen so far. It’s certainly possible! Baseball, though, is famously not played in a vacuum. The most likely outcome for the Red Sox is probably some kind of middle ground. Some of the early standout performers will come down to Earth eventually, and some players we expect to perform well could underwhelm. These are normal things for any team in any season.

Teams that get off to this kind of start often have a lot of regression down to the mean ahead of them. The Red Sox are unique in that, despite being off to such a hot start, they seem to have nearly as much room to improve as they do to regress. They probably won’t win 86 percent of their games for the entire season, but with some better breaks in terms of health and performance, they may not slow down as much as one might expect. That could turn out to be the recipe for a very special 2018 Red Sox season.

Header photo by Kirby Lee — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

The sun was shining, the birds were singing, and — oh god, we haven’t done Deven Marrero yet. The 49th man. And now the clouds are coming back and the birds have gone silent. Just one more, I thought to myself. Just one more.

Deven Marrero with a glove is silk. He’s one of those players that will make even the toughest of plays seem routine, like he had been preparing his whole life for that one hard-hit grounder to go that far to his right. There’s a subtle pleasure in watching a great fielder do great fielding things, and if that’s your drug, Marrero is your fix. Inject it into our veins.

Deven Marrero with a bat? Well, if you can imagine what a disgusted recoil sounds like, that’s pretty much all you need to know.

What Went Right

The Red Sox, in their pre-Devers days, had a bit of crisis with finding a third baseman that could actually produce any kind of value. Pablo Sandoval, Josh Rutledge, and Marco Hernandez all tried their best, but due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or a combination of the two, none of them could produce. That’s where Marrero comes in. If their third baseman wasn’t going to get hits, it might as well take them away, and oh boy can Marrero do that.

Marrero’s defensive prowess got him 364 innings at third base, along with 106.2 innings at other positions in the infield. That includes 2.2 innings at first base, which he can now field, apparently. It’s only a matter of time until the Red Sox will only require a pitcher, a catcher, and Deven Marrero in the field.

We know how horrifying his hitting is, but he did have one bright spot.

That’s a two-homer game. Against Jose Quintana. Baseball is simply magical.

What Went Wrong

188 plate appearances might be good for Marrero on a personal level, but that was a canary in a coal mine for the Red Sox. If someone with Marrero’s offensive prowess was getting that much playing time in the majors, something — more specifically, third base — was very wrong. Marrero slashed .211/.259/.333 with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate, which looks as awful as it is. That comes out to a .215 TAv. He did hit four home runs, which technically counts as a power surge, if you’re looking for the thinnest silver lining possible.

Even his time at third base didn’t last very long, all things considered. Tzu-Wei Lin, who was called up directly from Double-A Portland, overtook him at the hot corner in late June.

Good thing the Red Sox have Rafael Devers.

What To Expect

Marrero is going to be involved in the second base carousel until Dustin Pedroia returns, so he’ll most likely stick with the team for a good while. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. His glove will keep him hovering around the majors, and maybe even start for a team desperate for anything at second base, shortstop, or third base. Right now, he looks to be part of the well-stocked depth the Red Sox have, and with no offense to be found, it isn’t likely that he’ll be much more than that. He’s good for a sparkling defensive play or two, but this is who he is.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

The operative words in that last sentence are “up to”. Martinez has three opt-outs in the contract: one that comes after the second year, another that comes after the third, and the final one comes after the fourth. That seems a little odd at first, but it works well with what the Red Sox are currently working with in regards to their future. That sounds a little ominous, yes, but it’s not something that we’ve been in the dark about. The Red Sox’s plans for the next few years have been obvious, but the Martinez contract cemented them. This team currently has a well-established championship window, and it won’t last long into the next decade.

So let’s start with the details on Martinez’s contract. Martinez, if he plays through the entire contract, will earn $110 million. That comes with an “if” statement because, again, Martinez has three opt outs in the contract — one after two years, and another after three. He’ll earn $23.75 million in each of the first two years, and he’ll collect the same amount again in the third year if he decides to opt in. Martinez can choose to opt out after the fourth year as well, and he’ll potentially earn $19.35 million in that year and he’ll earn the same amount in the fifth year of the contract. The first two years are the only things you’re certain to get in this contract. That and dingers. Lots of dingers.

The major thing you should notice here is that Martinez’s contract is frontloaded. Unlike David Price’s contract, in which he’d see a raise to a $30 million average annual value if he opts in after 2018, Martinez would instead drop to that 19.35 number from earlier. It’s not a huge incentive to stick around, unless, say, the team is good. Plenty of players have stuck around to try and win with a certain team for less money. It’s not unheard of.

Problem is, when you look at what the 2020 Red Sox team could look like, you’re not likely to be encouraged by what you see. Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz are set to be free agents after 2018, and David Price could opt out and join them in the market if he doesn’t want to stay. 2019 is even more of a disaster when it comes to free agency, as Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Rick Porcello all become free agents as well. In 2020, you lose a major part of the young core, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. depart due to free agency, along with Carson Smith. That’s a lot of key players lost. As of this writing, the Red Sox will only have one player confirmed to be on the books with a non-rookie contract in 2021, and that’s Dustin Pedroia.

So there’s a lot of incentive here for Martinez to only look out for himself, and I don’t blame him one bit for it. Players should strive to earn the most they can. It also suggests a positive feedback loop for whenever the Red Sox start to take a step down from the level of the rest of the title contenders. If the Red Sox can’t sign their young stars to a few extensions, or keep some of their pending free agents, Martinez has no reason to stay. He can opt out after 2019 if everything falls apart, and go to a team like the Los Angeles Angels that desperately needs a designated hitter that’s not decrepit. He doesn’t need to have loyalty to Boston when it comes to other opportunities, and as a player, that’s a savvy business move. Can’t hate the hustle, y’know.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future, barring another free agent splurge. They’re no longer sitting on a hotbed of game-changing talent in the minors like they were a few years ago, and that hampers their ability to acquire players to make an impact on the major-league level, either through development or trades. It’s a bit reductionist, but this version of the Red Sox will only go as far as their extensions do, which isn’t much farther than 2020 right now. If the Red Sox do decide to dump money into the free agent market in the coming years, they might end up like the San Francisco Giants, who are trying to stay competitive in a very tough division despite having very little in the farm system. Whether that’s good or bad is all perspective at this point, since we don’t know how well the Giants will do in 2018, and staying relevant like that isn’t always a massive financial drain.

I’m not trying to be cynical here. Really. I’m not. This is what Dave Dombrowski’s been doing the last few offseasons. He’s been setting the team up for several runs deep into October since 2016 began. But even with Martinez now on the roster, the Red Sox could end up as the fourth-best team in the American League. The Yankees and Astros are juggernauts with a wealth of talent on the farm, and Cleveland’s pitching is still incredible — and they also have a lot of young talent, including the fifth-best prospect in baseball according to BP’s rankings. The window isn’t just somewhat short, but the obstacles are daunting as well. I’d gladly eat crow if it meant the Red Sox bulldozed through the other 29 teams, but realistically, it’s going to be tough, no matter what year they want to compete in.

The title window plan wasn’t unique nor a franchise secret, but I’ll admit it wasn’t exactly put out there for everyone to see. But there’s a downside to peaking like this, and it’s the inevitable drop that comes afterwards. Martinez’s contract is structured so he doesn’t have to stick around for that. His contract suggests he’s the last piece of the puzzle for the final few pushes, and then he can leave when he pleases. He doesn’t have to wait for the Red Sox to hit on high draft picks and shrewd international signings to reinforce their major league talent. That contract is one big exit strategy once the Red Sox start falling apart.

Maybe the Red Sox start handing out extensions like party favors, maybe guys like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers become legendarily good, and then maybe Martinez sticks around for the long haul. There’s definitely hope for long-term success. But for now, the title window is open with Martinez. When it shuts, though, it’ll come down hard and fast, and the Red Sox will have to find another way to get back to the top.

Photo by Joe Camporeale — USA TODAY Sports

That offseason, the Red Sox famously brought in future Hall of Fame pitcher and future Hall of Fame-level asshole Curt Schilling to, as it turned out, co-front the rotation. They also brought in Mark Bellhorn, Terry Francona, and maybe even more importantly, Keith Foulke. It was a murderer’s row of talent, from the front office on down. As it turned out, it was just barely enough to get past the Yankees in a second consecutive ALCS Game Seven. That was elation so high it lifted my ankles off the floor.

That two-year period where the Red Sox went from so close to winning to losing to so close to losing to winning represents certainly the most intense rivalry between two teams I’ve ever experienced or endured in my lifetime. And now, dear reader, 200 words into this, here is my point. The rivalry is back, my dudes! . It’s back! The Red Sox and the Yankees are the two best teams in the division, two of the three best in the AL and probably two of the best five or six in baseball. This season, this 2018, is going to be another huge brawl of a season. They got Severino, we got Sale. They got Judge, we got Betts. They got Stanton, we got JD. So I thought it might be instructive to look and see how these two teams stack up against each other, a tale-of-the-tape, if you will, or even if you won’t.

Let’s start here. PECOTA. The PECOTA projections are here and they are spectacular. Though maybe not if you’re the Red Sox. I’ve already detailed how the Sox individual projections maybe aren’t as positive as we’d wish they were, but in the end and as we all know, games are won on the field not inside spreadsheets. Which is good, because PECOTA has the Yankees finishing seven games up on the Sox after winning 96 games. By any measure, 89 wins for the Red Sox would be an unsuccessful season, but that’s where things stand as of now. FanGraphs does their own full season projections as well, and theirs are slightly more favorable to Boston (which makes them worth mentioning). They have the Sox at 93 wins, a game behind New York’s 94. Better, but not what we’re looking for.

So let’s go deeper. Let’s go position-by-position and see who has the advantage. I’ll give you the names and their projected WARP in parentheses.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (4.4) vs. Christian Vazquez (1.7)

This is one of the Yankees’ biggest advantages. Sanchez is, bizarrely as it is to say, perhaps as good a hitter as Judge. Vazquez is a fantastic defensive catcher, but at this point in his career, that’s mostly all he is.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

First Base

Greg Bird (1.5) vs. Moreland/Ramirez (combined 0.4)

We don’t really know what Greg Bird is as a player yet, but he was as highly touted as Judge was prior to the 2017 season, so there’s some nightmare fuel for Red Sox fans. He missed most of last season with an injury and didn’t hit well upon return, but he’s young and talented so much more is expected of him this season. Moreland is Moreland, and it’s still unclear to me why the Red Sox felt it necessary with a glut of talent available on the market, to give him a two year contract. Best case he and Hanley combine to form the two sides of a successful platoon, so that could happen. Or Hanley could remember that he’s actually a great hitter.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Push

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (0.1) vs. Dustin Pedroia (1.3)

Torres is yet another great Yankee prospect, but for now we don’t know what he is at the major league level. Pedroia is an aging middle infielder coming off of surgery. So who knows on either of these guys.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius (1.7) vs. Xander Bogaerts (1.4)

Ever since he’s put on the pinstripes, Gregorius has continued to get better. Over a similar timeframe Bogaerts’ numbers are going in the opposite direction. I’m still a Xander Believer though, more so than Gregorius who hacks at everything and seems like exactly the kind of hitter the juiced ball turns into something he isn’t.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Red Sox

Third Base

Brandon Drury (0.4) vs. Rafael Devers (1.8)

Drury is Gregorius with a more boring name. He’s got some pop but he doesn’t take walks and he’s not much beyond average defensively. That’s a fine profile for a team with Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, but it doesn’t move the needle much either way. Devers might be the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s that good.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Outfield

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton (3.9) vs. Andrew Benintendi (2.1)

Center Field: Aaron Hicks (1.2) vs. Jackie Bradley (1.0)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (4.0) vs. Mookie Betts (5.2)

We’re doing outfield together because this is getting long. The funny thing to me is that the Red Sox are a team built on the strength of their outfielders. Their best hitter and maybe their second best hitter are both outfielders. Their best fielders are outfielders. This is an outfield-heavy team. And yet, up against the Yankees, the strength of this Boston team falls back. The Yankees won’t be able to keep up with Boston defensively but they won’t be bad there, and what ground they lose there will more than be made up for with their bats. Good lord, those bats. The “ifs” here are health. The Red Sox players haven’t shown any predilection for missing games to injury, but Stanton and Hicks both have missed significant time over their careers.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Brett Gardner (1.8) vs. JD Martinez (2.9)

I don’t actually know who is going to DH for New York, so I picked the best Yankee projection not included in the above sections and put him here. That’s Gardner. But no leftover Yankee is going to hold a candle to J.D. Martinez in the hitting department.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

I was going to do the pitching staffs as well, but this has already gone on too long. We’ll leave that for next time. For now, the results. Counting the outfield as three separate positions, PECOTA has Yankees 6, Red Sox 3. I have Red Sox 4, Yankees 4 with 1 push.

Any way you slice this, and I’m sure Yankee fans would disagree with my analysis, it’s close. That we know. PECOTA shows that. FanGraphs shows that. Our eyes show that. It’s going to be another fun season. Buckle the heck up.

The

Red

Sox

have

signed

a

free

agennnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

n

n

n

n

n

[crawls out of well]

How about that! That’s not even a question, it’s a damn statement. How about that! I mean who even cares who they signed at this point. The name of the guy isn’t even important. Okay, fine, I should tell you who it is. It’s Eduardo Nunez. The Red Sox signed Eduardo Nunez to a one-year contract with a team option for a second season.

[marching band walks through]

[deeply breathes oxygen]

[marching band walks through again]

Oh god… oh god… it’s so… so good.

So here’s the thing. As I write this on Thursday night, I don’t know how much Nunez is getting paid. But, really, honestly, who gives a crap? It could be $4 million or it could be $12 million and it really doesn’t matter to anyone who isn’t Eduardo Nunez, his agent, his family, his heirs, their cats, or anyone in the Red Sox ownership group. After that, doesn’t matter. The difference between those two semi-randomly chosen numbers is a lot of actual money were we talking about real people, but this is baseball and these are baseball teams. The only difference to the Red Sox would be if it impacted their ability to bring in other talent, and the only way that would happen would be if the team was committed to not spending above the luxury tax threshold. But they’re not! Money schmoney! Whatevs! They’ll sign J.D. Martinez and, heck, Jake Arrieta too.*

*Which honestly they should do because why the heck not?

So it doesn’t matter what they’re paying him, and they have, according to reports, a second-year team option, so if things go well this year they can bring him back for 2019. If not, they don’t have to. That’s the good kind of option if you’re the team and/or you’re a Red Sox fan (maybe less so if you’re a player).

So far, so good for the Sox! They did a thing! But let’s talk about how Nunez fits on to the roster. His most obvious place is at second base while Dustin Pedroia convalesces from knee surgery. The Sox’s star second baseman could return early in the season, but this is major surgery he’s working his way back from, so you never know. It’s entirely possible it takes longer, and longer could mean months, and baseball season is long, but it’s not that long, ya know? A Sox team minus a legit starting second baseman could be dead and buried by the time Pedroia’s knee is up to the rigors of the sport. So Nunez will likely be first in line there.

Beyond second, there’s also third base, both literally and in this specific case, where the Red Sox will be starting 21-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers is a fantastic talent and much is expected of him, but at his age and experience level, you never know. Which is a nice way of saying he could be bad. If that happens, or if the kid hits the skids for a few weeks, it’s nice to have a competent replacement easily available in Nunez to give him a breather. Beyond holding down the fort for Pedroia and as Devers insurance, it’s always good to have someone who can step in and play if other areas of need should open up. Which, given this is baseball, seems likely.

So Nunez fits in pretty well on the roster as long as he’s willing to deal with the insecurity of not having a daily job in the lineup. And since he’s re-signed with Boston we can reasonably assume that he’s fine with that.

What can we expect from Eduardo in 2018? That’s a bit tougher to answer given the way his 2017 ended, that being getting carried off the field after hurting his knee in the ALDS against Houston. Now seems a good time to state that his signing this contract with Boston depends on him passing a physical, which, based on his injury, is no sure thing. But, for the purposes of this piece, lets assume that he’s healthy and passes his physical. In that case, Nunez was a three-win player each of the past two seasons. Thats quite a gem to have on the bench. That said, his 2017 was helped along by a Manny Ramirez-like slash line of .321/.353/.539 in 173 PAs with Boston. His .751 OPS in San Francisco before the trade is much closer to his career OPS of .735. That’s probably more in line with what should be expected of him. Eduardo Nunez is a nice player, defensively versatile and with some pop, but he’s probably not a .533 slugging percentage type of dude.

You might say, well “Matt” — if that is your real name — what if perhaps Fenway Park just fits with Nunez’s skillset better? What if he’s just a good fit at home in Boston, “Matt?” True, that could be it, but you’d have to explain why, if that’s the case, Nunez hit better on the road than he did in Boston during his brief time with the Sox. It’s possible that Nunez turned over a new leaf after coming to Boston, in a similar manner to J.D. Martinez when he got to Detroit or Jose Bautista when he got to Toronto. It’s possible. If so the Red Sox will have a tremendous deal on their hands whether they’re paying him $4 million a year or $12 million. But the likelihood is Nunez just got extremely hot. It was fun while it lasted, lots of fun in fact, but he’s probably going to fall back toward his career norms. And that’s totally fine. That’s great, even. That’s just dandy. Nunez is going to help to fill the hole left by Pedroia’s absence, and he’ll be there should anyone else fail or fall. That’s insurance. That’s depth. That’s the way a good team makes it through a long, grueling slog of a baseball season.

Eduardo Nunez makes the Red Sox better at whatever price. That’s something worth waiting for.

Photo by Ken Blaze — USA TODAY Sports

With that said, PECOTA gives us approximately 50,000 projections per team, so there’s plenty to get sincerely angry about. As literally every single Kansas City Royals fan will tell you, PECOTA doesn’t always get it right. I took a look through the Red Sox projections and cherry-picked a few, sorting them into arbitrary groups that have very little to do with one another. Let’s see how it worked!

Three Projections That Stood Out

1. Chris Sale’s 2.44 ERA

I’ll be honest: when I saw this, I immediately went to check how it stacked up against Corey Kluber’s ERA, and hell yeah, Sale’s is marginally better, so 2018 Cy Young confirmed.

But yes, that is an absurdly low ERA, even for Sale. The only two starters to post an ERA lower than 2.44 last season were Kluber (2.25) and Clayton Kershaw (2.31). It would be Sale’s lowest ERA since the 2014 season and mark the first time he ever posted back-to-back seasons with a sub-three ERA. What makes things even more interesting is that most of Sale’s other projections predict a small regression, so something doesn’t match up. This might be more of an argument against the reliability of solely looking at ERA more than anything else, but that’s a really low number.

2. Joe Kelly coming for Matt Barnes’ innings

Man, PECOTA did Barnes dirty this year. After (barely) leading the bullpen in innings pitched last year, Barnes is projected to be fourth on the totem pole this season. Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly are all projected to throw more innings than Barnes. The first two make sense, but it’s interesting to see Joe Kelly sneak in front of Barnes. Granted, a healthy Tyler Thornburg also means less innings to go around for righties, but Barnes really feels that the worst. Kelly threw 58 innings last year and is projected to throw 51 this season. Barnes threw 69.2 innings last season and is projected to come in at 46 this year. Kelly doesn’t get the strikeouts that Barnes does, and they both walk way too many batters, but the latter was undeniably bad in important situations last year and probably needs to earn some trust back. Maybe this should be titled “Tyler Thornburg coming for Matt Barnes’ innings” but my bet is Kelly starts the year as the seventh inning guy.

3. Rafael Devers hitting .258

Devers’ value to the 2018 Red Sox is hardly (if at all) connected to hitting for average, but .258 feels low. He hit well throughout his time in the Red Sox system and slashed .284/.338/.482 during his 60-game stint in the majors last season. Even if he can’t hit above .280 during his first full season in the bigs, .254 seems underwhelming. He’s a free-swinger who doesn’t draw a lot of walks, yet he posted a league-average OBP last season. His natural talent as a hitter makes me think his floor is closer to .265-.270, and that’d be just fine. And on that note, some quick hits:

Three Projections I Loved

1. Rafael Devers hitting 21 home runs
2. 22.9 Fielding Runs Above Average – best in the AL East, third-best in the AL, and top-five in all of baseball.
3. Mookie Betts looking a lot more like 2016 Mookie than 2017 Mookie.

Three Projections That Spooked Me

1. How similar Drew Pomeranz and David Price’s seasons look.
2. Steven Wright getting the fifth spot in the rotation over Eduardo Rodriguez.
3. Xander Bogaerts having a lower TAv than Hanley Ramirez.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports