Top Play (WPA)

After Hanley Ramirez started off the bottom of the fourth with a single, Travis Shaw follow that up with a ground-rule double that put runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out (.119). Chris Young then followed that with a double of his own, scoring both Ramirez and Shaw (“only” a .104). Young’s double broke a 2-2 tie, and the Red Sox never trailed again.

Bottom Play (WPA)

In the top of the third, Rick Porcello allowed singles to the first four batters as the Rays cut the lead to 2-1. Then, with the bases loaded and no one out, Kevin Keirmaier reached on a fielder’s choice when he grounded to first base when Hanley threw out Corey Dickerson on a force at the plate. It probably could have been a double play, but Hanley’s throw home to get Dickerson wasn’t clean enough to turn it. The Rays picked up another run via a sacrifice fly from Evan Longoria (If Longoria doesn’t have an RBI against the Sox does the game even count?)  but all things considered, especially after Monday night’s catastrophe, getting out of a bases-load, no one out scenario with only two runs seemed like a victory.

Rick Porcello, Man 

Another strong performance from the starter. Seven innings, six hits, three earned runs, seven strikeouts, no walks. He’s 18-3 and 13-0 at Fenway. Yes, I understand your beef with wins as a meaningful stat, but 18-3 generally indicates you’re pitching pretty well unless you’re 2008 Daisuke Matsuzaka. He continued to induce weak contact while staying in the strike zone  – a formula which has been the reason for his resurgence this season.

Mookie Joins the 30 HR Club

Mookie Betts hit his 30th home run last night. By doing so, he joined some elite company. He also had some elite quotes when asked about it.

Betts on hitting 30 home runs: "It's pretty cool."

Betts on hearing MVP chants: "It's pretty cool."

— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) August 30, 2016

Rick Porcello found it funny that when he told Mookie Betts congratulations on 30 HR, Betts said, "Thanks, I'm just doing what I can."

— Jason Mastrodonato (@JMastrodonato) August 30, 2016

What’s next?

The second game of their series with the Rays. It’ll be Steven Wright versus Drew Smyly. First pitch is at 1:05. Day baseball!

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA) : With one out in the 4th, Hanley Ramirez walked and Sandy Leon crushed a thundering-single on the ground to set up runners on first and second with Chris Young, fresh of the DL, up for his first at-bat in two months. Young liked the first pitch he saw and roped an RBI double down the left field line (.138). Young’s return to the team couldn’t come at a better time; he gives the team much more reliable outfield depth and frees up Brock Holt. Considering they still have 10 days before their next day off, the timing is perfect.

Bottom Play (WPA): Xander Bogaerts made a poor base running decision in the third inning and was thrown out easily at second base to end the inning (-.055). Dustin Pedroia was on third and Mookie Betts was hitting, so Bogaerts’ misread looked especially bad. But give him credit, making up for that with a two-run homer in the ninth inning was the pragmatic solution. Very savvy.

Key moment: Andrew Benintendi caught a fly ball in in left field during the eighth inning.

So we’re all totally in on Benintendi, right? The catch is just remarkable. There’s really isn’t a point in waxing poetic about it, words do it no justice.

Trend to watch: David Price’s ERA might dip below 4.00 soon! Following up the “complete” game he threw in Baltimore five days ago, Price was sharp again, going eight shutout innings while allowing two hits, walking two and striking out eight.  The velocity wasn’t really there tonight but a game recap is no place for the David Price-and-his-velocity conversation. The team has won each of Price’s last three starts, which is nice too. Don’t look now but the Red Sox might have more than one reliable starter at a time…? So this is how the other half lives.

What’s next: Game two of this four game series. It’ll be Clay Buchholz against Chris Archer. First pitch at 7:10pm.

Top Play (WPA): The Red Sox jumped on Chris Archer last night. Mookie Betts led off with a walk, then Dustin Pedroia singled to center field, Xander Bogaerts kept things rolling with a single to left field that brought Mookie home, and David Ortiz smacked a double to left-center field scoring Pedroia and Bogaerts (WPA: + .116). The Red Sox were officially off to a great start, establishing an early lead they would not relinquish.

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom of the first inning was filled with excitement, but also some letdowns. After the first four guys reached base, Hanley Ramirez struck out (WPA: – .024), then Travis Shaw struck out with David Ortiz on third base (WPA: – .033), and finally Brock Holt grounded out to end the inning (WPA: – .022). While Shaw’s plate appearance was the bottom play of the night, these three trips to the plate really took the wind out of the Red Sox’s sails in that first inning. Fortunately there were eight more innings to play.

Key Moment: In the bottom of the second inning the Red Sox’s offense kept pressure on Rays’ starter Chris Archer. After Christian Vazquez struck out, Jackie Bradley Jr. doubled high off the center field wall bringing Rays-killer Mookie Betts to the plate. Mookie then sent a rocket over the Green Monster:

The homer was the third best play of the night by WPA (+ .082) and pushed the Red Sox’s lead to 5-0 in the early stages of the game. You might even argue that with the Rays only scoring three runs on the night, it was the game winner. Mookie had a big night, getting on-base in four out of five trips to the plate. With his efforts he pushed his line against the Rays to .360/.421/.590 (in 114 PA), including six home runs. It appears as though Mookie really likes hitting against Tampa Bay.

Trend to Watch: Rick Porcello’s strikeout rate. Coming into the game, Porcello had a 30.0 K%, tied for 14^th highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this year. Then he went out and struck out nine of the 28 Rays’ batters he faced, raising his season mark ever so slightly to 30.7 percent. His career rate is 15.3 percent, so this is a remarkable change for him in the early going of this season. When Porcello was struggling last year there were suggestions (e.g., here) that he needed to stop trying to strike batters out with his four-seamer up in the zone and get back to what had made him successful in the past: getting ground balls on sinkers low in the zone. Well the good news is that this season, he has thrown sinker more often than he ever has since his rookie season in 2009. Outside of getting tagged for five home runs – a problem he had last year – this fastball-heavy approach has worked pretty well.

One more note — Xander Bogaerts had to leave the game in the sixth after semi-limping home on a David Ortiz RBI double. There were plenty of scares at first, but the Red Sox quickly announced that Xander is simply dealing with a tight quad and is day-to-day. Whew.

Coming next: The Red Sox will finish up the home stand and series with the Rays in an afternoon tilt at Fenway before heading to Houston for a weekend set against the Astros. David Price will take the mound looking to help the team to a series win. Price was excellent in his last outing, holding down the prolific Blue Jays offense over seven innings (6 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 9 SO). He should be able to shine against the meager Rays’ offense. The Rays will counter with young, right-hander Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is off to a solid start this season, having allowed only six runs total in his three starts (2.89 RA9, 2.10 FIP). He presents another tough matchup for a Sox offense that will be looking to continue their outburst from last night.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

As for 2016, our starting point, PECOTA, will tell you the Rays will win by three games over Boston, five over Toronto, six over New York, and 18 over Baltimore. FanGraphs has a different projection, featuring the Red Sox by four games over the Blue Jays, six over the Yankees, seven over the Rays, and nine over the Orioles. Look up other projections and they’ll tell you something different. That’s because there isn’t a clear consensus on who has the best team this season. Things are jumbled. I present this paragraph on the throwing spaghetti at a wall that is 2016 to indicate that, as we stand now, things are pretty equal as long as you aren’t Baltimore. If you are, well, sorry.

The most difficult thing to do in sports isn’t to win, it’s to predict the future.

Of course, team performance in 2016 won’t necessarily be indicative of team performance five years from now. Many of the players currently on AL East teams will be gone by then. Don’t believe me? Okay, who played shortstop for the Red Sox in 2011? Who was Boston’s top prospect back then? Right. This is hard. And we’ll never know for sure until the time has come and gone, but there are some ways to start to figure out how things might go in 2020 in the AL East right now. We here at BP publish a number of articles which may be of assistance, most notably the Top 10 prospects lists for each team and, within those, the 25-and-under lists. Those lists show us who the good young players are and what we might expect from them. We can combine the quality in those lists with what we know about the current state of the franchises going forward and that should give us our answer, or what will pass for it. Remember, this is guesswork. Intelligent (I hope!) guesswork, but guesswork.

Since this is BP Boston, let’s start with the Red Sox. We know the Sox have a strong farm system, but we also know it’s a very young farm system. Much of the strength of the system is in players that haven’t played above A-ball yet. That’s okay, though, as Boston also has Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart at the major league level, and some help on the pitching side of things as well. The next five years of this franchise will depend on two things. First, how well the top-tier prospects develop, like pitchers Anderson Espinoza and Michael Kopech, as well as bats like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Second, it will depend what kind of team GM Dave Dombrowski builds around the team’s already existing young core of stars and promising pre-star-level players. That, combined with the owner’s willingness to spend and Dombrowkski’s mostly smart (though kind of scary if you’re prospect-hugger like me) penchant for winning trades, bodes well for Boston in the long run.

The Blue Jays are in a far more precarious spot. They don’t have the system Boston does, though they do have some promising young players like Anthony Alford and Connor Greene. The depth of the system isn’t there though, at least not right now. That’s the bad news. The good news for Toronto is most of their good young talent is already at the major league level. Marcus Stroman shows signs of being a front-of-the-rotation stud, and Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, and Devon Travis all showed promising though varying degrees of ability. As currently constructed the Jays don’t have the Red Sox’s ability to spend, though that comes with it’s own curses for sure. The new front office also comes well regarded. The future is bright in Toronto thanks to a talented veteran roster, but unlike in Boston, the further you project out, the hazier it gets.

The Yankees are somewhat the opposite of Toronto in that the further you project out, the more promising they get. It’s right now that is hazy. That has less to do with the specifics than the fact that they are the Yankees and can bring in a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper should one of those players hit the market. As for their good young players, almost none are in the majors. The almost is Luis Severino, who throws gas and should break camp with the rotation, but after him the rest of the Yankees are grey beards, or would be if the Yankees allowed beards. The strength of the Yankees 25-and-under players is Severino and outfielder Aaron Judge, who wouldn’t look out of place on an NBA court. Those are nice players to have, but it takes more than a powerful right fielder and a single good young starter to make a franchise go. The Yankees are coming off an off-season that saw them be the only team to not sign a free agent to a major-league contract. That’s astounding. In the next few seasons older players and their contracts will fall away, and the way the younger Steinbrenner’s spend that space under the luxury tax threshold will dictate how good this team will be in five years.

In Baltimore it’s the Manny Machado show. Dude is crazy good and somehow still just 23. To put him in cotext, he’s Baltimore’s Mookie Betts, but if Betts had just put up a seven-win season instead of a five-win season. Jonathan Schoop is both good and promising, though in a step down from Machado kind of way. After that is when things start to fall apart. The Orioles’ inability to develop starting pitching, which has plagued them for over a decade now, needs to be rectified before Kevin Gausman, Hunter Harvey, and Dylan Bundy all explode like Spinal Tap drummers. The Orioles as currently constituted are a veteran-heavy team, led by Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy, 30 or older all. Machado and Schoop are a good start in the way that Severino and Judge are good starts (though they’re much better than Severino and Judge) (probably) but it’s not enough. With the Orioles lacking the desire and/or ability to bring in top of the rotation starters like David Price and Zack Greinke, they simply have to create the good pitchers themselves.

For the Rays, the challenge is to constantly reinvent themselves. This goes for the team but for the front office as well. Fortunately, they seem to have hit upon a strategy that works for them, and as long as they continue to scout well, they should have some level of success on the field. Their system now is probably the second-strongest in the division behind only Boston. Number one prospect Blake Snell could step in and help the Rays rotation this season. Beyond him, the upside might not be present but the low ceiling means lots of major league average players coming to Tampa, which means the team doesn’t have to spend money on the James Loneys of the world. Smart trading will also help and the Rays’ newish front office has bolstered the team by acquiring players like Corey Dickerson. Things look bright in Tampa, but as always, holding on to star players and continuing their good drafting will the difficulties going forward.

At the end of the day, we can’t know who will win in 2020, but the sheer tonnage of talent, from high-ceiling arms to power bats, in the Red Sox minor league system, combined with the will to win of ownership and a capable front office, give the Red Sox a powerful combination of smarts, money, and talent. That’s the total package, folks. Things aren’t perfect, but when 2020 rolls around, based on these crude data points, the Red Sox should have won more than their share of the division championships.

Now, please burn this article so there are no copies around in 2020 to throw in my face after the Orioles have run off five straight AL East Division wins. Thanks.

Photo by Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Old friend Daniel Nava (he’ll always be our friend) broke open a scoreless tie with an RBI single off Porcello with two outs in the seventh inning (0.192). If you thought this season’s misery was over, add a crucial hit for Nava against the Red Sox to the list of things that want to make you hurl. Nava’s heroics for the Rays might have hurt more if you couldn’t see them coming from a mile away:

Daniel Nava is going to drive in the winning run, isn’t he?

— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) September 24, 2015

Bottom Play (WPA): After Nava’s go-ahead single, the Red Sox put the first two runners on in the bottom of the seventh inning but couldn’t scratch across the tying run. With two outs and runners at second and third, Dustin Pedroia grounded out to shortstop to end the potential rally (-.131). On a night when the Red Sox’s bats struggled, they had few chances, and their inability to cash in here proved costly.

Key Moment: Perhaps an even bigger moment took place earlier in the inning when the Red Sox had runners at first and second with nobody out. Following a leadoff walk by Blake Swihart and a single from Deven Marrero, Jackie Bradley Jr. smashed a ball into the left-center field gap that had double written all over it. Instead, Nava tracked the ball down and made a nice play just in front of the monster to foil Boston again. Nava’s catch was the first out of the inning and, crucially, kept the runners at first and second before the Rays escaped unscathed.

Trends to Watch: Rick Porcello’s final line — seven innings pitched, 11 hits, three runs, eight strikeouts and one walk — doesn’t look all that spectacular, but this outing represented further progress for the right-hander. Porcello induced seven groundballs and struck out more than a batter an inning. His strikeout-to-walk ratio since returning from the DL now sits at 55 to 13. His groundball rate over that time span is a healthy 53.7%, according to the Providence Journal’s Tim Britton. Just one of the 11 hits Porcello allowed went for extra bases, and he was as much a victim of poor fortune as anything else at times. It hasn’t been an easy first season in Boston, but Porcello has something to build on here.

Deven Marrero looked sharp at third base yet again, making some stellar plays to provide further proof of his ability to flash the leather. He’s not going to suddenly earn himself a starting spot for the Red Sox next season, but he could be forcing himself into the picture as a bench option and injury replacement. Marrero’s versatility in the field is an asset Boston can lean on when need be.

Mookie Betts went 3-for-5 with a stolen base and even hit the ball hard when making an out. He’s now reached base safely in 26 straight games and is batting .314/.357/.480 in the second half. He is 22 years old. We are not worthy.

Coming next: The Red Sox close out their four-game series with the Rays on Thursday night at Fenway. Wade Miley will get the start and look to continue a solid second half that’s seen him post a 3.31 FIP, 20.6% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to a rejuvenated Erasmo Ramirez, who is coming off back-to-back strong outings against the Orioles and Yankees.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): This is going to shock you, but the top play was the go-ahead grand slam off the bat of Xander Bogaerts (0.712). Remember when some idiot complained about him only hitting singles? What a moron. It’s also worth noting that a Very Good-Looking Person predicted that grand slam before it happened.

Bogaerts go-ahead grand slam in 5…..4…..3…..

— Matt Collins (@RedSox_Thoughts) September 22, 2015

Bottom Play (WPA): The late-season Red Sox are so good, they’re not satisfied with simply taking the victory and the top play by WPA. Not only did David Ortiz’s first-inning double play (-0.126) register as the worst play of the game, but Boston actually held claim to the bottom five plays. Tampa’s worst play came on Tim Beckham’s groundout to shortstop in the ninth (-0.051). The play immediately followed Rich Shaffer’s solo home run and was yet another example of Bogaerts’ improved defense. He did it all last night.

Key Moment: Besides the genius predicting Bogaerts’ go-ahead grand slam, and the grand slam itself, I’ll go to the top half of the eighth inning for the key moment. The Rays had just finished shelling Alexi Ogando (shocking, I know), leaving Jean Machi with a bases-loaded, one-out situation. Tampa had a one-run lead, and it looked very possible, even likely, that they’d break the game open. Instead, Machi gave up a sacrifice fly and a got a strikeout to exit the inning with just a two-run deficit. Bogaerts would hit the decisive home run in the next half-inning. That’s right, the Red Sox bullpen actually did a good thing!

Trends to Watch:  Bogaerts is good. Like, really good. He showed everything off last night. The grand slam was huge, of course, but he also had a double that likely would’ve been out if it wasn’t for the wind. On top of that, he made at least three plays with the glove that he would have had no shot at last year.

Mookie Betts is also pretty decent. He reached base four times, bumping him up to a .338 OBP and a nice 6.9 BB%.

Rounding out the exciting rookies, Eduardo Rodriguez was impressive tonight despite not having his best stuff. He was rocked in the first inning, and it would’ve been easy for him to implode. Instead, he buckled down and got through six solid if unspectacular innings. Pretty exciting night for a trio of exciting young players.

Coming Next: The Red Sox and Rays continue their series tonight with Henry Owens taking on Matt Moore. Just 13 more games left in the regular season.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): The top play in this one, of course, was Rusney Castillo’s one-out single with the bases loaded in the top of the 13th. Castillo’s knock scored Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts, and would prove to be the decisive play of the game. It was a nice moment of redemption for Castillo, who was caught stealing in the fourth inning.

The next best places came courtesy of Travis Shaw, Steven Sousa and Deven Marrero, but seeing as none of them led to scores there’s nothing terribly exciting to note here.

Bottom Play (WPA): In the bottom of the 12th, James Loney grounded into a double play with John Jaso on base and one out. That ended the Rays’ threat, and allowed for Castillo’s heroics the next half inning. Pedroia’s own GIDP in the eighth takes second place here, and Pedroia’s ground out with two on and two out in the 10th is the third-worst mark. Pedroia has had better days, though he *did* collect two hits.

Key Moment: Castillo’s single, of course, though Loney’s GIDP, Tommy Layne striking out Joey Butler with two on in the 12th and Pedroia’s ground out in the 10th felt really big, too.

Also, let’s give credit where credit is due: the Red Sox bullpen pitched great last night. That’s a real sentence we can say in 2015.

Trends to Watch: Rich Hill, man. Rich Hill. Trends are meaningless.

Coming Next: The Red Sox head to Baltimore to take on Kevin Gausman and the Orioles. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start for Boston, so this should be a good game for those of you who enjoy young pitching.

Photo by Jeff Griffith/USA Today Sports Images

Tampa Bay Rays – Current Record: 51-52

The Rays have been largely disappointing this season mostly due to a combination of weak hitting and injuries to key rotation cogs Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly.  Since the All-Star break the Rays have scuffled a bit going 5-7 even dropping two out of three to the lowly Phillies.  In their last series they were able to get back on track vs the Tigers winning two of three and contributing to Dave Dombrowski’s decision to trade his rentals.  Not much has changed with this team and Boston continues to own a 5-4 edge in the season series.  The chance is there for Boston to really challenge for the fourth place spot in the division!

Probables

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Erasmo Ramirez, Friday, 7:10 p.m.

Last time out vs. Detroit we saw the #Ed that we have grown most accustomed to seeing—Good #Ed. He went seven strong innings, striking out six and allowing just one earned run.  Over his 11 starts this season Rodriguez has posted eight such starts where he has given up two or fewer runs and three starts where he’s been shellacked to the tune of nine, six, and seven earned.  This will be Rodriguez’s first start vs. the weak-hitting Rays, who have struggled offensively all season long, batting just .238 as a team and placing 26^th in the league in runs scored.  Versus lefties the Rays have been a bit better, batting .253, but I still think this is a lineup Rodriguez should exploit.

Going for the Rays is Erasmo Ramirez who, after beginning the year in the bullpen, has been a very nice surprise.  The undersized righty has posted a solid 3.74 ERA with an excellent WHIP of 1.08.  His last time out, Ramirez was roughed up a bit by Baltimore, giving up five earned runs. That marked his first poor outing since May 24^th.  Like Rodriguez, Ramirez has also not faced his opposition this year so this pitching matchup should be the best of the series.  Slight advantage Eddy and the Sox.

Joe Kelly vs. Matt Moore, Saturday, 1:35 p.m.

It should be crystal clear to everyone involved with Red Sox baseball operations by now that Joe Kelly and his 5.94 ERA do not a valid starter make.  The fact that John Farrell continues to run Kelly out there to be sacrificed is beyond me.  No one is saying that Kelly doesn’t have a place on the team, he absolutely does, but that place is in the bullpen.  I don’t understand dragging this out any longer, especially when Brian Johnson or Henry Owens could be getting valuable reps.

Not that it matters who Joe Kelly will oppose but, for the sake of being through, he goes against talented lefty Matt Moore.  Moore is fresh off of his Tommy John surgery and since returning he has been downright terrible posting a 7.61 ERA over five starts.  Even with his poor track record this season it is hard for me to be objective here because Kelly is bound to spot the obligatory five runs by the third inning even to this band of soft hitting weaklings.  The edge here goes to no one because all who watch this matchup lose.

Wade Miley vs. Nate Karns, Sunday, 1.35 p.m.

In the final matchup of the series Miley gets the ball for the second time this year vs Tampa Bay.  In his previous outing he was able to blank the Rays over five-and-two-thirds, earning his first victory of the year back in April.  While he hasn’t been great, Miley has been better so far in the second half, posting a pedestrian 3.89 ERA. On this team he’s practically an ace.  In his last outing he was blasted for seven earned runs by the red-hot White Sox but I think he will get back on track.

Opposing Miley is Nate Karns who has finally gotten a full slate of starts in the big leagues in 2015 thanks to the Rays’ rash of injuries.  Karns has electric stuff but in the past his tendency to give up the long ball and get loose with his command has done him in.  In his last start vs. the Red Sox, Karns gave up five earned runs in a no decision.  In two starts since the All-Star break he has only allowed one earned run over 11 innings pitched and has been talked about as a potential trade chip.  This game is a pure toss-up with the slight edge going to Karns.

Opposing Lineup

John Jaso – DH – L
Steven Souza – RF – R
Evan Longoria – 3B – R
James Loney – 1B – L
Logan Forsythe – 2B – R
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS – S
Curt Casali – C – R
Joey Butler – LF – R
Kevin Kiermaier – CF – L

As I alluded to earlier, this lineup is not going to keep any opposing pitchers up at night and presents little threat with the long ball outside of Steven Souza and Evan Longoria.  Forsythe is certainly worth mentioning since he is tied with Longoria at 11 home runs and leads the team in batting average, OBP, and hits.  As much as I like what Forsythe has been able to do this year he remains on the few bright spots for a lineup whose cleanup hitter, James Loney, has just three home runs and a .255 batting average.

The one player I am interested to watch here is Curt Casali, who has been getting some playing time lately and making the most of it.  His .283 batting average to go along with seven homers is impressive even with his 31 percent strikeout rate.

Recap

If there is an opponent that the Red Sox can handle right now it has to be the Tampa Bay Rays.  This team struggles to score and has had pitching performances nearly as erratic as the Red Sox over the last week.  If you are looking for pretty baseball and shiny recently traded stars do not watch this series. However if you are pleasantly surprised by mediocrity we may just be the only show in town.  I say the Rays take two of three.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): This game’s three top plays are represented by Boston’s three homeruns: Pablo Sandoval’s solo shot in the second (.121), David Ortiz’s two-run blast in the fourth (.119) and Alejandro De Aza’s solo bomb in the second (.111). Hitting three homers against one of the game’s best pitchers is no small feat, and it was impressive to see Boston’s hitters capitalize on the few mistakes Archer made at several points.

Worst Play (WPA): There was no singular truly terrible moment for either team in this game. Steven Souza’s strikeout in the bottom of the eight (-.064) gets “top” honors here, but there were five additional plays all within .020 WARP. What’s interesting to note is that the bottom 17 — yes, 17 — plays all belonged to Tampa. That’s a bad day at the office.

Key Moment: The homers were great, and you can argue that Ortiz’s bomb deserves the nod here. But for my money, the key moment in this game came in the bottom of the eighth, when Deven Marrero made a very Dustin Pedroia-esque play to rob Brendan Guyer of a base hit that probably would’ve scored a run. Marrero’s bat clearly isn’t ready for the majors, per his MiLB numbers, but he’s lauded for his glove and here we got to see why. This is all the more impressive when you consider that Marrero has very little experience at the keystone.

Trend to Watch: Justin Masterson was … good? This certainly isn’t a “trend” yet, and the Rays don’t have a great offense, but Masterson struck out six in five innings, scattering five hits without giving up any free passes. Should we be optimistic this will continue? No. But for one night, at least, the much-maligned decision to replace Joe Kelly with Masterson and not Steven Wright or Brian Johnson looks quite justified.

Jerry Remy learning he pronounces things weird is also a key trend.

Last trend: I’m an idiot.

Available Sox SP, ranked: 1) Buch 2) #Ed 3) Porcello 4) Miley 5) Johnson 6) Wright 7) Brock Holt 8) Owens 9) You 10) Kelly Last) Masterson

— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) June 25, 2015

Coming Next: Boston heads up North to take on the Blue Jays in a four-game series that could go a long way toward determining if they buy or sell at the deadline. The Jays have a terrific offense and are, for my money, the scariest team in the division. If Boston takes three out of four, it’s entirely possible they’d “only” be seven or so games out of first. If they tie, lose the series or get swept, well, take a long last look at Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and potentially Koji Uehara and Clay Buchholz.

The good news is Boston’s four best pitchers are toeing the rubber, and yes this is sarcastic.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox, as you may know, have been bad this season. They’ve been especially bad against AL East opponents, and even worse on the road. That spells trouble for the Sox this weekend as they begin a seven-game divisional road trip in St. Petersburg to take on the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at the Trop. Let’s look at what to expect as these teams meet for the third time this season.

Tampa Bay Rays – Current Record 41-33 – Projected Record 86-76

After a fourth-place finish in 2014, the Rays were projected to finish near the bottom of the standings once again this season. It made sense. Tampa lost manager Joe Madden to the Cubs, dealt David Price at the deadline and Ben Zobrist in the offseason, making an already underwhelming roster look even worse on paper. What the Rays have accomplished thus far has been downright impressive. They sit in first place, have one of the best rotations in baseball despite being depleted by injuries and show no signs of slowing down.

Probables

Rick Porcello vs. Alex Colome, Friday, 7:10 p.m.

Is there a bigger bang-your-head-against-the-wall pitcher in baseball right now than Rick Porcello? If so, I’d rather not meet him. Watching Porcello has been nothing short of maddening. Just look to Saturday in Kansas City as evidence of that. The right-hander looked strong through the first four innings, and was even handed a 4-1 lead. But he imploded for five runs in the fifth inning, turning a comfortable advantage into his sixth straight loss. Porcello’s inability to compile shutdown innings is only part of the problem. As Ryan Morrison pointed out this week, Porcello’s biggest issue this season has been his pitch selection and location. Porcello is using his four-seamer and his changeup more than ever, and leaving more pitches up and getting crushed by hitters. Although he’s getting more strikeouts, Porcello’s 5.61 ERA and 1.35 HR/9 is telling of where he is right now.

Fortunately for Porcello, his counterpart, righty Alex Colome, has been prone to clunkers as well. Colome has allowed five or more runs in three games this season, striking out fewer batters, walking more and surrendering more homers than Porcello. Colome, however, has been much better lately, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He was especially strong in his last outing Sunday, tossing a one-hit shutout with four strikeouts over seven innings. Colome is at his best when his command is on, something he showed in April when he shut down the Sox in Boston.

Wade Miley vs. Matt Andriese, Saturday, 4:10 p.m.

Wade Miley has been strong in his two starts since the dugout meltdown with John Farrell in Baltimore, combining for two runs in consecutive victories. Miley had one of his most impressive outings of the season Sunday, holding the All-Star-laden Royals scoreless over six innings while working in a good pitch mix. The lefty threw four of his five pitches 19 or more times, getting whiffs on 15 percent of his changeups and 13.8 percent of his sliders. He finished with just two strikeouts, his lowest total over his last four starts, but overcame trouble and command issues by keeping hitters off-balance. Miley’s repertoire is certainly an asset, and will be key if he is to remain effective.

The Red Sox have a bad habit of making little-known starters look like aces. That reality must have Matt Andriese chomping at the bit despite seeing mixed results in his two-and-a-half-month major league career. The Rays initially brought the righty up as a reliever, but injuries to Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore and recently Jake Odorizzi forced Andriese into the rotation. Andriese isn’t going to pile up strikeouts, but he has decent command and mid-90s velocity on his fastball and sinker to go with good swing-and-miss ability on his cutter. Andriese’s longest outing this season lasted 5.2 innings, so it’s essential for him to be aggressive in the strike zone and avoid working high pitch counts early.

Justin Masterson vs. Chris Archer, Sunday, 1:10 p.m.

Joe Kelly has finally lost his spot in the Red Sox’s starting rotation. His replacement? None other than Justin Masterson. It’s not much of an upgrade, but it’s at least worth watching. Masterson was placed on the disabled list in mid-May with what was described as “right shoulder tendinitis” after sporting a 5.26 FIP through seven starts this season. The righty made four rehab starts in the minor leagues and had a 3.29 ERA and 7.90 K/9 in three starts in Triple-A Pawtucket. Masterson was originally moved to the bullpen upon activation, but never made an appearance. Sunday will be crucial in him earning a starting spot again.

Archer finds himself in some elite company so far this season, all while carrying a team that lacks in offensive prowess and has had four starting pitchers on the disabled list. The righty has allowed one run or fewer in 10 starts this season, tying him for second in the majors with Max Scherzer and one behind Zack Greinke, who has 11. Archer boasts an upper-90s fastball and a deadly swing-and-miss slider, lifting him to a 10.75 K/9 as he’s reached double-digit punchouts in four starts this season. Archer is more than just the guy calling out David Ortiz for admiring home runs. He’s now a dominant force on the mound who owns a 2.23 FIP and a major league leading 2.79 PWARP.

Opposing Lineup

The Rays have stuck with a consistent lineup throughout the season, with the only change coming when James Loney went on the disabled list with a fractured finger. Jake Elmore has since moved to first base, leaving Tampa with a righty-heavy lineup.

Kevin Kiermaier – CF – L – .267/.303/.435, .284 TAv
Joey Butler – DH – R – .327/.367/.503, .317 TAv
Evan Longoria – 3B –R – .274/.356/.409, .292 TAv
David DeJesus – LF – L – .291/.349/.430, .291 TAv
Logan Forsythe – 2B – R – .292/.374/.451, .308 TAv
Steven Souza – RF – R – .228/.321/.448, .280 TAv
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS – S – .206/.262/.327, .216 TAv
Jake Elmore – 1B – R – .245/.290/.327, .241 TAv
Rene Rivera – C – R – .162/.203/.262, .170 TAv

The Rays are 23rd in baseball with a .260 team TAv. They’ve relied heavily on the top of their order, which was hindered by Loney’s injury, to produce, and have yet to get much out of offseason signing Asdrubal Cabrera. Like many of its successful teams over the past seven years, Tampa’s lineup is essentially Evan Longoria and a bunch of no-names. But enough of those no-names have excelled to make it work.

Recap

Despite numerous setbacks, Tampa Bay continues to prove itself as a legitimate contender in the American League. But with some favorable matchups – aside from Masterson vs. Archer  – and better play of late, the Sox may be set to turn their fortunes against the AL East leaders. However, if this season has taught us anything, prepare for the worst, Red Sox fans.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images