There’s a certain string of emotions when watching sports that everyone has experienced. It’s the general “sinking stone” feeling. Your team gets out to a lead, and sure, it’s a bit shaky. You convince yourself that it’ll be okay, that the feeling is just fleeting. As if some deity heard you, everything goes bad the moment you do that. Your heart drops into your foot. It’s pure, unadulterated carnage, but you can’t stop watching. You’ve already accepted defeat and the game’s not even halfway over. Your eyes glaze over and you wish for it to end. (Eat at Arby’s.)

The Red Sox used newly-acquired Roenis Elias as a starter for one game. Go back to that last paragraph, start from “Your heart drops…”, and re-read it from there. You have now encapsulated that one start. Congratulations!

What Went Right In 2016

Literally nothing. He is a cautionary tale in what happens when you need your tenth-best starter to pitch.

Okay, maybe not nothing, but if I’m looking for a silver lining here, he at least resembled a starting pitcher in Pawtucket. Compared to the next segment, that’s pretty okay.

What Went Wrong In 2016

From the start, it was bad.

He started three games in Spring Training and turned in one decent start. He was optioned to Triple-A at the end of March, as he had no shot to make the rotation at that point. The Red Sox called him up for some bullpen help on April 22nd. The next day, the Houston Astros scored three runs off of him over 1.2 innings. Elias was sent down the day afterwards to make room for Henry Owens. Yeah. That was a thing.

Elias was then called up on June 17th to make that one fateful start against his former team, the Seattle Mariners. Here’s how Franklin Gutierrez greeted him:

Park attendants are still looking for that second home run ball. As you can expect, he was sent back down again soon after.

Third time wasn’t really the charm for Elias, as the next time he was called up, he allowed a run over two innings while facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not as bad as his last two outings, but still ineffective. Nine batters faced, four hits, no strikeouts, no walks. Sigh.

The Red Sox opted to go with Owens and even Sean O’Sullivan as their spot starter over Elias several times in 2016. Combine that with Carson Smith needing Tommy John surgery, and you’ve got a Wade Miley trade that did very little for either team in 2016. Not great, Bob!

What To Expect in 2017

He’s not this bad. Probably. Elias has done better in the majors before and he’s flashed limited strikeout potential. His ceiling isn’t high, but the most you can expect from him is a spot-start or two and some long relief appearances when the bullpen’s gassed. He’ll first have to be a better pitcher than Owens or even O’Sullivan if he wants to get a decent amount of innings, and if we’re being fair here, that bar isn’t set particularly high. If he can’t, he’s only a passable LOOGY that’s stuck behind Robby Scott. It’s a hard-knock life for starting pitcher depth.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Regardless of how you view this season thus far, it’s still a big improvement from last year. Some of those first-half successes can be attributed to changes made in the offseason, such as signing David Price and Chris Young and trading for Craig Kimbrel (sorry, Carson Smith). But those changes, particularly the trades, also required parting ways with some notable players. Yes, the Red Sox acquired talent, but gone are promising prospects such as Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra, as well as complementary pieces like starting pitcher Wade Miley.

We’ve seen how these moves have worked for the Red Sox, but what about the teams on the other side of the deals? What kind of contributions have the likes Margot, Guerra and Miley made to their new clubs, and what does it mean for those players going forward?

Let’s start with the Kimbrel deal. The Sox sent Margot, Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen to San Diego for the four-time All-Star closer. Kimbrel, as I wrote last week, has become the player the Red Sox were hoping to get. The Padres may be a mess, but they aren’t missing Kimbrel, either. Fernando Rodney owns a 0.31 ERA and 2.32 FIP, and San Diego’s newcomers have shown good potential in the minor leagues.

Manuel Margot

2015: .270 TAv, .147 ISO and 1.1 WARP in 64 games with Double-A Portland; .273 TAv, .138 ISO and 1.7 WARP with High-A Salem

Last season was good, but not great for Margot. This year he’s looked more like the player that made him one of the top prospects in the Red Sox’s organization. He’s spent the entire season with Triple-A El Paso, and has been the leadoff hitter and starting center fielder most of the way. He’s also putting up some of the best numbers of his young MiLB career. Margot is slashing .299/.352/.419 with a .274 TAv., while his speed (21 stolen bases) and defense (14.9 FRAA) continue to be strengths. BP’s Mark Anderson put his MLB ETA at 2017 in his scouting report three years ago. With the Padres out of contention, the 21-year-old Margot may get his chance as early as this September.

Carlos Asuaje

2015: .259 TAv, .123 ISO and -0.6 WARP in 131 games with Double-A Portland

Asuaje didn’t look like a major piece in the Kimbrel deal at the time. He projected as nothing more than a major-league utility player, and his numbers in Portland last year proved just that. Asuaje, however, has found new life in a new system, posting a .296 TAv and 1.3 WARP in El Paso thus far. He also has 25 extra-base hits, including a Pacific Coast League-high seven triples, matching his total from last season. Asuaje’s 2016 numbers are a throwback to his 2014 campaign split between Low-A Greenville and High-A Salem, when he combined for a 5.2 WARP that year. Now he’s starting to see his major-league potential manifest itself in his first crack at Triple-A. Perhaps he’s not far from his big-league debut either.

Javier Guerra

2015: .280 TAv, .171 ISO and 4.0 WARP in 116 games with Low-A Greenville

Guerra put all scouting reports to shame with his offensive production in Greenville last season. As BP’s Wilson Karaman wrote, Guerra is a premier defensive shortstop with a little pop in his bat, but at 20 years old his approach at the plate is still raw. That’s the player he’s been this season. He owns an underwhelming .245 TAv in High-A Lake Elsinore, but does have a 9.9 FRAA. Guerra hasn’t shown quite as much power, however, as he has just eight homers in 282 plate appearances and a .139 ISO, but it’s still a potential strength of his.

Logan Allen

2015: 0.90 ERA, 1.05 FIP and 10.8 K/9 in seven starts in rookie ball; made one start in Class-A Lowell

The Red Sox drafted Allen in the eighth round last June, so there’s little to compare what he’s done thus far to. What we do know is that the 18-year-old is off to a decent start, posting a 3.07 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 8.4 K/9 in 12 appearances (eight starts) for Low-A Fort Wayne. BP’s Grant Jones sees a potential major-league future for Allen, but that’s still a long way from being realized.

Then there’s the Miley trade. Both the Red Sox and Mariners are off to good starts, but no thanks in part to the deal that sent Miley and Jonathan Aro to Seattle in exchange for Smith, who is out for the season, and Roenis Elias, who had a forgettable Sox debut.

Wade Miley

2015: 4.46 ERA, 3.78 FIP and 6.8 K/9 in 32 starts

The Red Sox knew what they were getting from Miley last season. This year, the left-hander has been far worse. Miley owns a 4.74 DRA and 4.82 FIP through 13 starts with the Mariners this season. He’s allowing home runs at a career-high rate (1.5 HR/9) and inducing ground balls at a career-low rate (45 percent). These numbers are all coming with Safeco Field as his home ballpark. As bad as Boston’s starting rotation has been, it wouldn’t be any better with Miley in the fold.

Jonathan Aro

2015: 6.97 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 7.0 K/9 in six games with Boston; 3.14 ERA, 2.42 FIP and 9.2 K/9 in 26 games with Triple-A Pawtucket; 2.82 ERA, 2.78 FIP and 7.7 K/9 in eight games with Double-A Portland.

Aro was a decent reliever throughout his MiLB career with the Red Sox, and he’s continued to be one for Triple-A Tacoma. The 25-year-old righty owns a 2.27 ERA and 3.81 FIP over 23 appearances, while posting a 6.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Pretty good, but nothing special. That’s who Aro is, and who he’ll continue to be, even if he works his way into a middle relief role in the majors.

The only other notable player the Red Sox lost in the offseason was Justin Masterson, but the Sox gladly let him walk in free agency after an ugly showing in 2015. This season hasn’t treated Masterson any better. He’s made five appearances (two starts) for the Indianapolis Indians – the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate – and owns a 5.17 ERA and 6.48 FIP. It’s safe to say he’s not due for any more post-Boston breakthrough seasons.

The Red Sox parted ways with numerous players throughout the organization last offseason. Overall, those players have met expectations in their new homes. What does that mean for the Sox? Ultimately very little given the way both offseason trades worked for the teams involved. Both the Red Sox and Padres benefited from the Kimbrel trade, while the Mariners and Sox have yet to get anything out of the Miley deal. Sometimes that’s how trades work. The fun part will be seeing what kind of players Margot and Co. develop into, while the Red Sox hope to get value out of Kimbrel and Smith for the next few years.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

Ten years ago, the Red Sox and Yankees fought for every bat they could find, creating plodding, ogrish lineups at which the world gawked. Now they’re collecting relief pitchers just as vigorously, building bullpens of unprecedented depth and talent. With the trade of Wade Miley to the Mariners in December, the Red Sox added Seattle fireman Carson Smith to a stable of power arms that includes Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, while the Yankees currently boast a back three of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. In this context, there is every reason to think that the Sox got the better end of the Miley deal: In Smith, they got a better, younger player at an increasingly premium position.

What Went Right in 2015

Last season was Smith’s first full year in the show after a 2014 cup of coffee, and it didn’t take long for Mariners fans to call for him to replace Fernando Rodney as the team’s closer. It was for good reason. Through June 5th, Rodney put up a 6.94 ERA, while Smith’s was 1.13, but manager Lloyd McClendon stuck by the veteran as long as he could, preferring his experience over Smith’s obvious talent. While the dam eventually broke, and Smith briefly closed in the middle of the season, McClendon went with Tom Wilhemsen to close out the team’s few wins down the stretch instead of ya boy, who finished with a 1.7 WAR, 2.31 ERA and 2.67 DRA (Rodney was traded to the Cubs). In almost certainly related news, McClendon was fired in the offseason, which seemed to forge a path for Smith to close in Seattle in 2016. But the front office had other ideas.

What Went Wrong in 2015

McClendon. While I don’t begrudge managers for sticking with plans or players to which or whom they are devoted, if only for a couple months, Rodney was especially bad last season at a time when Smith was especially good. It’s pretty clear that Smith probably should have been in higher leverage situations early on, and late-season the decision to back away from Smith in favor of Wilhemsen seems like something by a lame-duck manager in service of a long-exhausted point. Anyhoo, insofar as any of this went “wrong” for Smith, it went right for the Red Sox, who by any real measure got him on the cheap.

Outlook for 2016

I suspect Smith will be a fan favorite this year, with the potential for much better things. He’s talented and young in a bullpen that’s talented and old, which potentially opens doors we want to remain shut. In the best-case scenario he is a sixth-and-seventh-inning lockdown reliever. If things go wrong, we might see him in the eighth. If things go really wrong, we could see him in the ninth, but I don’t expect it. The stormclouds of the last two years ought to have cleared by now. If they haven’t — and God help us, let’s hope they have — Smith’s ability to finish games will be a silver lining. If he doesn’t, the whole bullpen ought to be golden, and Smith ought to glow.

 Photo be Jennifer Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

With former Yankees fill-in Vidal Nuño in the fold and a more solid starter in Wade Miley included in the deal, the Mariners appear to have been perfectly happy to include Roenis Elias in the trade that landed Carson Smith in Boston. Where Elias fits in the Red Sox’s short-term plans is not so sure — President Dave Dombrowski indicated he could compete with Joe Kelly for a fifth starter’s role — but he certainly doesn’t have a rotation slot locked up the way Miley probably would have if he had remained with the team.

Things started out well for Elias when he joined the Seattle rotation at 25 years old. In 29 starts, Elias recorded fewer hits allowed then innings along with pedestrian walk and strikeout rates. As a result, simple ERA estimators like FIP made it look like Elias had nearly earned a respectable 3.85 ERA. In a more abbreviated 2015 season, however, neither Elias’ ERA nor his FIP were as complimentary of his pitching.

Not much changed with Elias’s peripherals in 2015, when he threw 115.1 innings in 20 starts and two relief appearances; a slight drop in strikeout rate was mitigated by an even slighter drop in walk rate, and he yielded hits almost exactly as often. His home run rate appeared to do most of the 2015 damage. Had he been an AL team last year, a 0.9 HR/9 would have given Elias a rate as good as the top-ranked Astros, but the swing to 1.2 HR/9 would have tied him with the last place Tigers.

Bad luck in 2015? Not necessarily. Elias had a 4.37 Deserved Run Average in 2015. What’s more, it looks like Elias may have been tremendously lucky in 2014 — his 4.98 DRA that season was 1.14 points higher than the ERA he ended up with. He may actually have improved in 2015, but as far as DRA is concerned, “improved” didn’t exactly mean “good.”

With some ups and downs along the way, Elias’s pitch mix in 2015 was almost exactly the same as it was the season before. Elias threw his curveball about as often as pitchers not named Rich Hill throw curveballs, 22.31% of the time. He also featured his changeup about as much as a pitcher ever does, maybe stretching the limit at 35.47% of the time. The occasional sinker (9.83%) helped him stay away from his fourseam (42.38%) about as much he could.

Elias is not the soft-tosser that kind of pitch mix might suggest, though. Brooks Baseball had his average fourseam release speed at 92.37 mph, a bit above average for a lefty. As noted by our Bryan Grosnick in BP’s Transaction Analysis of the trade, Elias’s curveball is sometimes very good. In Hill, we saw another lefty play up his curveball by throwing high fastballs that stayed in the same plane for a longer time.

Hill, however, throws his curveball for strikes — Elias throws more curveballs off of the plate, and in on right-handed hitters. To keep his fastball working with the curve, it looks like he’s not a “high fastball” or “low fastball” guy — he’s more of a “middle fastball” guy.

Unfortunately for Elias, in 2015 that also made him a “.556 slugging percentage against fastball” guy. Maybe there’s room for improvement with Elias, but for now, it’s hard to dream of upside. His fit in Boston may not really be in the rotation anyway. Grosnick put it like this in BP’s Transaction Analysis:

He could possibly be a fine fifth starter on a second-division team … maybe even the Red Sox if everything breaks wrong. But on a team looking to upgrade their rotation, Elias is a swingman, a depth piece, and the guy you count on to stick around and fiddle if the city is already on fire.

Note that Grosnick did not say “long reliever.” In a relief role, Elias could potentially throw his curve a bit more, but probably not much more — and he really can’t throw more changeups. If he were better in a relief role, it would probably be because of a tick up in velocity, not the benefit of seeing hitters just once. If anything, that might make him a better short relief candidate than a long relief one.

Maybe there’s room for improvement with Elias, but for now, it’s hard to dream of upside. His fit in Boston may not really be in the rotation anyway.

The reference to “swingman” is specific, but probably more accurate. It’s been a long time since we saw Ramiro Mendoza morph in and out of that role, but the key is to be available to start when needed. The days of the swingman may be numbered in the game, with more and more spot starts made by minor league starters. If Elias bounces in and out of the rotation, “out” may mean “Pawtucket rotation.”

The Red Sox also have no more options on Steven Wright, who probably fits best as a true long reliever — maybe even as a “mop up guy.” As Grosnick put it, Elias may only be a rotation option “if everything breaks wrong.” Elias gets hit, but he does get outs — and in less-than-ideal circumstances, maybe that’s all we can ask for.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Acquired RHP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias from theSeattle Mariners in exchange for LHP Wade Miley and RHPJonathan Aro. [12/7]

The joke, as you may have heard, is that Dave Dombrowski came to Boston and inherited a team with a lot of solid pieces and loads of potential. The only part of the team that was a complete disaster was the bullpen-the one thing that the golden god of the big-ticket trade was never able to fix in Detroit. With the acquisition of Carson Smith to complement Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara, it looks like Dombo might have cracked the bullpen code.

All you need to do is give up one or two top-50 minor leaguers and a solid cost-controlled left-handed starter, and you too can build a very scary late-inning composite!

That makes me wonder about the starting rotation. Signing Price assuages the hysterical screaming for an “ace” starter and improves the outlook for the 2016 starting rotation, but I’m not sure it solves the rotation as a whole. I’m not sure it doesn’t either. It’s worth noting there was considerable disagreement about the quality of the rotation even before last season, and watching them for a season doesn’t seem to have done much to clear that up. Recall that before the Price deal the consensus seemed to be that the rotation wasn’t very good. Now, post-Price, they’re fine, good even. I’m not sure it works like that.

So let’s look at some numbers and try to square where we are. We’ll start with last year. The Red Sox rotation finished seventh in 2015 in starters DRA. Better than Toronto, Texas, and Kansas City, though we all know the Royals’ strength wasn’t really their starters. Still, that’s very good! That’s not a team that needs to add David Price. DRA is more or less a measure of underlying quality, so if you believe it, the Red Sox have a pretty good if under appreciated rotation on their hands. Click on over to ERA, though, and you’ll see the Red Sox were also seventh, but not seventh from the top. They were seventh from the bottom. That’s the rotation we’re familiar with, the one that couldn’t get out of its own way during the first two thirds of the season unless Buchholz was pitching. FIP seems to tell a different story, maybe unsurprisingly more in line with DRA. By FIP the Red Sox had the tenth best rotation last season in terms of overall value. That’s some impressive variance there. On one hand we’ve got a stat saying, in essence, that Red Sox starters last season were collectively bad. On the other hand, we’ve got a stat saying, in essence, the Red Sox starter were collectively good. Huh?

Recall that before the Price deal the consensus seemed to be that the rotation wasn’t very good. Now, post-Price, they’re fine, good even. I’m not sure it works like that.

Of course, the 2016 Red Sox rotation figures to be different in composition from the 2015 rotation even if you ignore Price (which, how could you ignore Price?). Justin Masterson has mercifully gone on his merry way, but then so have Rich Hill and Craig Breslow. Fun Fact 1: if you combine Masterson’s awful nine starts with Hill’s four and (even more weirdly) Breslow’s two, the collective ERA of those three is 4.04 which is 0.35 lower than the team’s collective ERA. Hill and Breslow more than cancelled out Masterson’s terribleness. Baseball. Strange game. Anyway. The 2016 rotation figures to contain holdovers Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Wade Miley, though Joe Kelly could take the last spot if someone is traded. For now, even though the 2016 Red Sox will certainly demand the services of more than just those five pitchers, that’s what I’m going to address.

We all know Buchholz has the ability to be an ace. Fun Fact 2: On a per-inning basis, Buchholz was more valuable than Price last season. Seriously. Of course, part of Price’s value is that he throws 220 innings where as none of Buchholz’s value comes from that. Because, you see, he doesn’t. Still, Buchholz actually put up the best season of his career last year. He dropped his walks below five percent of batters faced while upping his strikeouts above 22.8 percent. He’s really quite good, you know. The question with Buchholz is always health, as he embodies more than anyone the idea that any pitch could be the last one. Still, it’s reasonable to project Buchholz for a very valuable 120 innings or so. Call that a slight step back, but if he can stay healthy (I KNOW I KNOW) he could improve on last season’s value even if he doesn’t pitch as well.

Miley put up his best season since his 2012 in Arizona that garnered him Rookie of the Year votes. That probably makes it sound better than it was though, because it was fine, not especially great. His strikeouts fell back to his career norms after a jump in 2014, but his walk rate fell a bit, as did his home run rate. So overall fine. Okay. He is what he is, and expecting two wins out of him next season is eminently reasonable. So that’s what we’ll expect. Here’s to opening the microwave and finding your TV dinner cooked all the way through!

Any big collective step forward seems most likely to come from either Buchholz somehow managing to pitch 200 innings, or Porcello reverting to form.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a bit of a wild card. Young pitchers, right? He looked ace-like some times, and overwhelmed other times. The overall performance was pretty good, around a two-win pitcher, and that came in just 121.1 innings. Expecting an innings jump and, hopefully, a little less of the overwhelmed Rodriguez seems fair, so maybe a slight step forward in overall value. The Red Sox are hoping for that, but there are certainly other outcomes that are possible and far less flattering, so I’m not sure expecting more than two wins from Rodriguez is a recipe for anything beyond disappointment.

Perhaps the guy where the most improvement can come is Rick Porcello. Porcello put up his worst season since his rookie year in 2008 with the Tigers last year. However, there are signs that Porcello can become what the Red Sox thought they were getting when they gave him his $82.5 million extension before last season. After being terrible terrible terrible and getting shut down last season, Porcello came back strong at the end of the year, posting a 3.58 ERA in 50.1 innings while striking out 52 to 11 walks. Also, his ground ball rate shot up, from 40.8 percent in July to 51.7 percent in September. (He only pitched seven innings in August, but his GB% was 47.7 then for you completists.) You can’t throw out the vast majority of the season and say, look, Porcello is what he did in September. The rest of the year is data too. But September is far closer to what he did in his recent seasons in Detroit in terms of style as well as effectiveness. If Porcello can be a three win pitcher instead of a one win pitcher, that’s a big jump, and given that he’s done it before, it seems whatever word means slightly less than likely.

If the rotation is to improve, the largest jump is going to come from the Red Sox not needing both Joe Kelly and Wade Miley in the rotation with that extra spot going to David Price. That’s a big step up. Beyond that though, we’re still left with the rotation of a last place team. That’s a bit disingenuous, I acknowledge, but even so it’s hard to call it a high-upside rotation. Any big collective step forward seems most likely to come from either Buchholz somehow managing to pitch 200 innings, or Porcello reverting to form. Beyond those two things, the rotation seems likely to perform similarly to 2015. Will that be good enough? If you believe DRA and FIP it should be. Or you could believe Dave Dombrowski. He seems to have a pretty good handle on things.

While so much focus is put on them before the season starts when we’re starving for baseball, we all sort of forget about them once the games start. Projections are not something that most people continuously go back to look at, myself included. However, considering how disappointing this Red Sox season was, I thought it would be worth it to look back at what PECOTA said about them before the season to see what the system got right and what it got wrong.

Before we dive into the individual player projections, let’s note that PECOTA was quite high on the overall team back in April. The day before the season started, Boston was projected to win 88 games, enough to win the East and give them the second best record in the American League. Of course, PECOTA wasn’t the only entity that was high on the Red Sox before the season. Which specific players did it get wrong that swung the season in such a poor direction?

One last qualifier before we begin: I only used players that both were projected to play something close to a full-time role and actually played something close to a full-time role. So, guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart and Henry Owens aren’t included as PECOTA only projected them for a handful of starts/games played. Now, onto the offensive players!

Starting at the top, it’s clear that the two star young players in Boston’s lineup outproduced what PECOTA foresaw back in April. The strange thing about Bogaerts’ season is, despite the huge strides we all saw him make at the plate, his True Average was actually worse than what was projected for him before the season. Now, if we were to break this down by all of the triple-slash components, we would see some major differences. This, of course, is because of how average-heavy his 2015 was, as I talked about a few weeks ago. The huge difference for Bogaerts this season has been his defense. Coming into the year, we figured that he would be an average-at-best shortstop, and even that may have seemed optimistic. He outperformed every reasonable expectation, and that’s where we see the big increase in WARP.

If you go back in time to April, there was no player’s projection who caused more of a stir than Mookie Betts. Many thought he was just another overrated Red Sox player, and there was no way he was going to hit as well as the projection systems (PECOTA certainly wasn’t the only one so high on him) said he would. Well, after all that, he wound up out-performing the projections. Even I, who was expecting a solid season from Betts, couldn’t have predicted him to blow PECOTA out of the water. Beyond his offense, which was slightly better than expected, his defense in center field was tremendous. So, that’s an extra three wins from the two young players. If you told me that would happen before the season started, I would’ve thought there’d be no way the Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs.

Of course, now we get to the two veteran free agents, who were also two of the most disappointing players in the league. It’s not a huge surprise that PECOTA was so far off on these guys, as basically everyone in the world was off. In fact, it was the biggest reason the Red Sox were so much worse than projected, as these two players caused a negative-eight game swing. Ramirez in particular was a disaster, as PECOTA saw him as both a great hitter and an average defensive player.

The two veteran mainstays in the organization had some lofty projections coming into the year, and while they both had good seasons, they both fell short of what was projected. Pedroia’s projection was particularly off, but that’s just a playing time issue as he missed a good chunk of time with injury.

Finally, we have All-Star Brock Holt, who obviously outproduced what was expected from him before the year. That’s not a shocking revelation, but he deserves a mention for being the only good thing about the first half. Oddly enough, his second-half was poor enough that playing time was really the only difference between his actual production and his PECOTA projection.

Now, to the pitchers!

Oddly enough, all of the starters who threw at least 100 innings outproduced their PECOTA projections, although most of them were coming from extremely low starting points. If you remember correctly, PECOTA was a harsher critic of Boston’s rotation than any other one. It’s worth noting that these actual WARPs are based on FRA, not the new DRA model, as DRA hadn’t been released at the time PECOTA came out.

Porcello’s actual performance would have been a lot uglier had it not been for a strong run to end the season. In the end, he was only a little worse than everyone expected, although he did it in a completely different fashion. Instead of being a ground-ball machine, he relied on strikeouts and a lack of walks for his success. It’s a good strategy, but it’s tough to succeed when you give up more than a home run every nine innings.

Next we have Joe Kelly, who PECOTA hated more than just about any pitcher who was set to get a significant amount of playing time. For much of the year, they were right, but he also had a solid run to end his season. Kelly, to his credit, was able to induce more strikeouts than PECOTA could have ever predicted.

Wade Miley’s projection vs. actual production is easily the most confusing on this list. PECOTA pretty much nailed his season, as they weren’t significantly off in any area. However, the 1.5 difference in WARP is anything but insignificant. While his projected line represented a replacement-level player, it actually ended up being worth more than a win.

Finally, we have Clay Buchhoz, who is just about the hardest player to project every season. PECOTA saw him being an average pitcher, which any sentient being could have seen as being a mistake. Buchholz is never average. It’s either way above-average or way below-average. This season, he was outstanding, of course. His 2.5 WARP was far and away the highest in the rotation despite him throwing just 113 innings before injury.

For as bad as the rotation was all year, it really wasn’t the reason Boston played below their expectations. The main culprits were the bullpen and the veterans. Whereas previous disappointing Red Sox seasons happened because too much faith was put into young players, it was the old ones who failed this time.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

After running down the positional side last Tuesday, it’s time to examine the pitching staff. Scary? Maybe. Any cause for hope? A little. Let’s dive into the numbers.

Starting Pitchers

So, uh, how about that Rick Porcello, everyone? We knew going into the season that the notably ace-free Red Sox weren’t exactly going to set ERA records in 2015. Sure enough, they didn’t. But, believe it or not, the starting rotation isn’t what tanked the Red Sox in 2015.

That’s the major league leaderboard for starting pitchers, sorted by BP’s Deserved Run Average. And that’s Boston at #5 in the big leagues. Sure enough, the Red Sox starters performed pretty admirably as a unit. So how’d that happen? Well, it probably has to start with two pitchers who were pretty awesome for half a season each: Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Clay and Ed were the yin and yang of the Sox 2015 rotation, slanted reflections of each other. Buchholz was the closest thing to an ace that the Sox had coming into 2015, but couldn’t be counted on to stay healthy. True to form, Buchholz started strong, but his elbow failed him as the season went on. In the end, he logged 113 quality innings, posting a DRA of 3.36 (pretty great!) and an FIP of 2.66 (really great!). Of course, as is Clay’s wont to do when pitching well, he was injured. He can’t seem to make it through a full season, and he closed up shop in mid-July.

At the end of May, Eduardo Rodriguez made his major-league debut and held Red Sox Nation in the palm of his hand. His stellar first couple of starts pushed expectations sky-high. We’ve made covering #Ed kind of a cottage industry here at BP Boston, from comps to Alex Skillin’s continuing “continuing education” series. Perhaps Eduardo wasn’t quite the dominator that Clay was on a consistent basis, but his DRA of 3.46 and FIP of 3.90 were just fine, thank you very much. While the team would love to see his strikeout rate improve, as well as stay whole and healthy, he’s established himself as a perfectly-good middle-of-the-rotation starter, even in the challenging American League.

So with half a great pitcher, and probably one whole good one, that leaves an average guy: Wade Miley. Miley did, well, almost exactly what he should’ve been expected to do. Miley ate innings, and posted good-but-not-great numbers doing so. It’s almost funny; his ERA was 4% worse than league-average and his FIP was 4% better. He posted numbers almost entirely in line with his past two seasons in Arizona, and stuck to an average level of performance like he was glued there.

There were also some small wins in terms of performance here and there. Henry Owens debuted, and he’s looked pretty good over his first 10 starts. He could certainly stick for next season. And I’d write up Rich Hill here, but he’s a goddamned unicorn. All I can say is that he deserves a shot in the rotation during Spring Training, and that I have absolutely no faith that he’ll be any good. But he might be. To be continued.

So not only were there some bright spots in terms of specific 2015 performance, but there’s some hope for the future. Miley should stay Miley. Eduardo Rodriguez looks real, and between Clay Buchholz and/or Henry Owens, another slot in the rotation might be pretty good.

Buuuut … then there’s Rick Porcello. Porcello was an unmitigated disaster in Boston, a failure in the first degree. He needs another chance to prove he’s at least the pitcher he was in Detroit, if not the pitcher the Sox want him to be. According to cFIP, which is a pretty good true talent measure, Porcello was roughly similar to last year as he was last in terms of peripherals. His cFIP in ‘14 was 99, his cFIP in ‘15 was 99.

Porcello went wildly wrong, Joe Kelly went pretty wrong (but he has great stuff!), and the simple fact that the Sox needed to cycle through a fair number of starters is something that went wrong. Beyond that? The rotation is pretty okay.

There is room for improvement here … be it from Porcello, from an improving Owens / Rodriguez combo or, most likely, from a new addition in the last available rotation slot. Dollars to donuts, I’d bet that Dave Dombrowski would be interested in adding another higher-end rotation piece, and likely by trade. Improvement would be good — very good — but things don’t look quite so dire here.

Relief Pitching

Welcome to the danger zone. Here is a comprehensive list of all the Red Sox’ good relievers in 2015:

• Koji Uehara, who is 40
• nope

This isn’t the most fair: Tommy Layne was a bit above-average, and Robbie Ross and Junichi Tazawa were about average. But really, in an era where relievers strike out batters like it’s going out of style (it’s not), the bullpen should be an asset that makes Red Sox starters breathe a bit of a sigh of relief as they hand over the keys. In 2015 it wasn’t, and there’s no reason to think 2016 should be markedly different.

Those four pitchers I mentioned, Uehara, Layne, Ross, and Tazawa, all very well could come back next year, but banking on improvement isn’t really a great plan. The rest of the bullpen? It might be better if they disappear. The only guy with real potential out of the bunch is Matt Barnes, and I think you might be tired of waiting on Matt Barnes’s potential by now.

No, this bullpen needs a complete overhaul. As a unit, the ‘pen had a 4.56 FIP, dead last in baseball. The team’s 4.31 ERA only surpassed the Braves, Rockies, Tigers, and Athletics. These teams all have something in common: futility.

Adding average-or-better relievers could be the ticket to improving this team by wins right from the jump. Though a great bullpen only gives a team a handful of wins above replacement (four to six, if you’re both good and lucky), the Red Sox were either replacement-level or worse, depending on how you pick your poison.

So, it’ll be up to Dave Dombrowski to build a new bullpen, with hardly any exist-

… Oh no.

Well, the good news is that there’s a lot of room for improvement here. Adding two or three people who aren’t Craig Breslow or Alexi Ogando might be a good start. The bad news is, well, you know what the bad news is. It could take some luck to make this work, if not skill.

So after running through all the holes and the weaknesses, after looking back on everything that went wrong, here’s my primary takeaway: the Red Sox have a fair number of holes to fill, but they’re ones that can be filled. No, they can’t be filled internally — the team will have to go out and find these players on other rosters — but the hard work of adding new pieces to complement the existing ones can be done. It’s not likely that everything will break down, and with a couple of savvy acquisitions and some luck, the team could be back in it again within a year or so.

That’s a bit easier said than done, of course. Look at the Padres and the White Sox if you want examples of how reaching out and grabbing external players to serve as all your missing pieces can go sour. But the Sox have resources: money, prospects, and intellectual capital. They’ll be okay. Probably. Maybe. But chances are that 2016 will certainly be more exciting than 2015.

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Wade Miley’s rapid-fire assault on the strike zone worked masterfully though five innings. Then the sixth inning happened. The biggest play, WPA-wise, was Asdrubal Cabrera’s game-tying double (.187). Previously in the inning, Miley recorded two quick outs before throwing an 89 mile-per-hour fastball down the middle of the plate, a pitch Evan Longoria vaporized somewhere in the direction of the Monster (+.111). There was also a go-ahead double from Steven Souza Jr. (+.174) and, later, a seventh-inning homer from Kevin Kiermaier (+.124) mixed in. All told, Miley gave up seven extra-base hits, five of which came in the sixth or seventh frames.

The Red Sox’s biggest play of the game, not surprisingly, was David Ortiz’s first-inning blast, a two-run shot that landed in the Monster seats. Ortiz’s OPS+ has dropped every year since 2012, but he started at 173 and he’s at 134 this year, so everything’s a-okay at the DH slot.

Bottom Play (WPA): Speaking of Big Papi, Ortiz’s game-ending double play (-.101) ran away with negative WPA honors, nearly doubling a Souza Jr. second inning ground out (-.056).

Key Moment: Oh, I don’t know, let’s say the sixth inning as a whole. Miley, who worked through the first five innings like he was late to a game of high-stakes bingo, lost whatever he had going with two down in the sixth. After retiring 13 of 14, Miley dealt Longoria a first pitch, get-me-ahead heater, and Longoria didn’t miss it. Okay, that happens. Logan Forsythe followed with a single down the left field line, then Cabrera and Souza followed with back-to-back doubles. That happens, too, unfortunately.

What went wrong with Miley? Maybe the answer’s out there, somewhere in the video footage or the PITCHf/x files, but perhaps it’s simpler than that. Maybe the Rays just got to him, after five innings of just missing pitches or failing to string together rallies, they stopped missing and strung together a rally. Miley’s solid outing went sour in a hurry. That happens.

Trend to Watch: This space is usually reserved for on-field trends, but I’d like to make an exception to write a few words about Don Orsillo. Unless NESN has a sudden change of heart (wait, what heart?), Orsillo only has a handful of games left to call as the Red Sox play-by-play guy, a gig he’s handled in (mostly) full-time capacity since 2001. Orsillo’s greatest strength is/was his wonderful ability to mesh seriousness and fun, as he, along with partner Jerry Remy, have been able to successfully toggle that switch on and off given the situation.

Back when I was watching the Red Sox on the Extra Innings package in the early 2000s, every once in a while the audio feed would stay live during a commercial break, and my ears would suddenly perk up for some hot, juicy behind-the-scenes commentary. Usually all I’d hear was Orsillo and Remy still laughing, often hysterically, about whichever thing they were carrying on about from the previous half inning. Orsillo (and Remy) has made the game more fun for the past 15 years, and he seemed to genuinely enjoy doing it.

Go ahead and enjoy Orsillo’s final days in the booth; there’s bound to be a good bit of laughter, maybe some tears, and the usual helping of good, old-fashioned play-by-play craftsmanship. It’ll be missed.

Coming Next: The Red Sox finish up the 2015 home slate with three games against the Orioles starting on Friday night, a matchup that features a pair of lefties in Rich Hill and Wei-Yin Chen. Hill was a once-promising starter with the Cubs back in 2007, but he’s thrown just 167 innings since, thanks in large part to near ceaseless trips to the operating table and, when healthy, bouts of extreme wildness. He’s found surprising (small sample) success this year in Boston, striking out 20 and walking just one in two starts and 14 innings.

After the O’s series, the Red Sox look to play spoiler in the season’s final week, as they travel to New York and Cleveland.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Toronto Blue Jays – Current Record: 84-62

The Blue Jays have a 3.5-game lead on the Yankees heading into this weekend’s tilt vs the Red Sox, thanks in part to the impressive additions the team made at the trade deadline.  Since adding Troy Tulowitzki (who remains out of the lineup), Ben Revere and David Price, the club has surged to an incredible 39-16 record in the second half, winning over 70% of their games.  While they still have the second-best record in the American League no team even comes close to their +210 run differential, which is the best in baseball by an amazing 92 runs.  These guys can score and now they can pitch, and I view them as the odds on favorites to advance to the World Series from the American League.

Probables

Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman, Friday, 7:07 p.m.

This is the matchup I am most looking forward to and I won’t have to wait long to get it.  If you would have told me in July that I would be looking forward to a Rick Porcello start I would have probably responded by saying something very mean to you.  Since the second half of the season has started, and more importantly, since Porcello came off of the DL, he has been a new man.  His second half ERA sits at a very respectable 3.12 and he has dropped his opponent batting average by a whole .043 points.  If he could have done this the entire year I wouldn’t have been complaining about that $82 million albatross of a contract extension.

Opposing Porcello is none other than the uber-talented 24-year-old Stroman.  Unless you have lived under a rock you know Stroman’s story; this spring training he tore a ligament in his knee and has worked his way back to the team in time for the playoffs.  This is only his second start since returning from the injury but, in his first outing at Yankees Stadium he held his own, giving up three runs over five innings pitched.  Make no mistake, the Sox are not facing him at his best but he still has some of the nastiest stuff of any young player in baseball and could give the Sox fits.

Wade Miley vs. R.A. Dickey, Saturday, 4:07 p.m.

The second matchup of the weekend has two pitchers who got off to incredibly bad starts to the season but have been much better as of late.  For the Sox, Miley gets the nod. He posted a first half ERA of 4.80 and has been much better as of late with a second half ERA of 3.87.  While this is nothing to write home about Miley has at least been serviceable and is only one start removed from his September 5^th complete game victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Don’t get too excited about him, but don’t get too down, either.

Going for the Jays is the 40-year-old knuckleballer with a name straight out of the roaring twenties, R.A. Dickey.  Say it in an old time baseball announcer’s voice….yep, its fun isn’t it?  Dickey has had the same type of story as Miley except his second-half success has been even more magnified.  Dickey dropped his first-half ERA of 4.87 by nearly two whole runs, sporting a stellar second-half mark of 2.98.  When the knuckler is knuckling it’s a hell of a thing.

Rich Hill vs. Mark Buehrle, Sunday, 1:07 p.m.

For the series and season finale we get Long Island Ducks pitcher, 35-year-old Rich Hill, opposing the immortal rubber-armed Buehrle.  If you haven’t heard Hill’s story yet I will sum it up for you.  Lefties live forever and Hill has battled injuries over the last ten years, finally finding himself healthy playing in the Independent League.  The Sox gave him a shot and he made the most of it, pitching well enough at Pawtucket to earn a major league start.  All he did with that one start was go out and strikeout ten Rays hitters over seven strong innings, allowing zero runs.  Someone make a movie about this guy.

While most Jay’s players have surged in the second half, Buehrle has seen his ERA rise from 3.43 in the first half of the season to 4.43.  His 3.66 mark on the whole season has been fine but he is certainly not trending in the right direction.  Nothing has changed here; Buehrle still relies on location and efficient use of his pitches to get ahead should be as formidable as always.

Opposing Lineup

Even without Tulowitzki, I don’t have to tell you how scary this lineup is, just look at it.  Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion are without a doubt the scariest two though four hitters in baseball right now and even though the lineup thins out after Martin this is no easy test.

Ben Revere – LF – L
Josh Donaldson – 3B – R
Jose Bautista – RF – R
Edwin Encarnacion – DH – R
Justin Smoak – 1B – S
Russell Martin – C – R
Ryan Goins – SS – L
Kevin Pillar – CF– R
Cliff Pennington – 2B – S

Toronto has hit 207 Home Runs in 2015, this is good enough for the best mark in baseball.  The also lead baseball in doubles with a whopping 275 of them.  Sure, having no Tulo will hurt but not all that much.  Look for this lineup to score early and often and to threaten frequently.

Recap

I am looking forward to this series more than any other in recent memory mostly because of how well both teams have been playing recently.  The Red Sox have posted their two best months of baseball during August and September and everyone knows how good the Jays have been over the second half.  The Yankees are playing against the Mets this weekend, which is going to be tough series in its own right, one that could easily end in their being swept.  Should the Yankees do the sweeping, however, the Red Sox would be in a position to really help out the bad guys in pin stripes.  Of course I want the Red Sox to win and sweep the Jays … but maybe it wouldn’t be the worst thing if they didn’t.

Best case scenario here is that the Sox and Mets take care of business and the division is settled by both teams head-to-head over the next few weeks.  I like the Sox chances in every game this weekend but I have to give the slight edge to the Jays and their incredible bullpen.  You can bet I will be tuning in.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images