Boston » Brian Johnson

Once More Unto The Depth

Brett Cowett — Tue, 10 Apr 2018 13:00:45 +0000

The Red Sox, owners of a franchise-best 8-1 record so far, are looking excellent. The pitching has been stellar, the offense has sprung to life, and everything’s clicking all at once. Hanley Ramirez looks healthy and has been productive, David Price is doing great things, and even the backups in Eduardo Nunez and Brian Johnson have been rock solid. With all this optimism, it’s somewhat easy to forget that the Red Sox are really relying on their depth a lot in the early going.

The performance of the pitching depth has been the most surprising, as Johnson and Hector Velazquez have combined to allow just two runs in 11.2 innings pitched. They’ve taken care of business where business needed to happen: in Florida, against both the Rays and the Marlins. Granted, we’re not talking turn-of-the-decade-Yankees juggernauts here, but outings like that are always very positive, especially in an environment where baseballs are being launched into the stands more than ever. Eduardo Rodriguez came back a little earlier than expected and had middling results for the first game, and with Drew Pomeranz still about a week away from returning, we’ll be seeing a little more of Johnson, with Velazquez in the bullpen for now.

On the position player side, that depth is about to get tested. Eduardo Nunez is a bench guy already playing due to Dustin Pedroia recovering from knee surgery, but as far as bench players getting a lot of playing time, he’s really the only one. That’s about to change, thanks to the weird, freak injury Xander Bogaerts suffered on Sunday. At first glance, it seemed like a rolled ankle or something just as innocuous, but it was a fair bit worse than that:

Red Sox announce Xander Bogaerts to DL with “small crack” in talus bone

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) April 9, 2018

Well, that’s a bummer. Thankfully, it’s looking like two weeks until Bogaerts returns. I really feel like crediting the Red Sox for actually letting Bogaerts heal up this time, but that seems like the sort of thing they should do in the first place, not let them play for three months with a bad wrist.

And so the Sox look for a stand-in. Deven Marrero is long gone, as he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks towards the end of Spring Training. Tzu-Wei Lin was called up to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, and he can play both middle infield positions, but he’ll probably take a backseat at shortstop to Eduardo Nunez, while he and Brock Holt trade off at second base. No one else can readily play shortstop for the Red Sox at the moment, and you can’t really count on Marco Hernandez showing up anytime soon, as he’s on the 60-day disabled list, and won’t appear in game action until the end of May. Mitch Moreland is strictly a first baseman, and Blake Swihart is a catcher with corner infield experience in a pinch. There’s not much past Nunez, Lin, and Holt for middle infielders, unless you want to go deep into the minors.

The quality of the middle infielders is just alright. I’d like to be higher on these guys, but we’ve seen their shortcomings. Nunez is fine, Holt is an uninspiring player nowadays, and there’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for Lin should he play a lot over the next couple weeks. I’d honestly like to see more Lin and less Holt, but I’ve been very down on Holt for a long while — with good reason! — so I feel that’s more of a personal preference. Either way, there’s going to be a lot of shuffling around second base.

The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence.

Injuries like this are really testing the Red Sox early on. It’s not a test to see if they can keep up their winning ways or production — they have above-average regulars at nearly every position. The Bogaerts injury really forces them to dig deep for infielders, and it’s not like this is a common occurrence. Bogaerts is a pretty healthy player, as he’s played 144 games or more in every season since he took hold of a starting job in 2014, so it’s not as if the Sox were lax in looking for a backup here. Bogaerts doesn’t often go down like this, and if it wasn’t already obvious, the “Bogaerts is soft!” complaint doesn’t really hold up.

The Red Sox were more prepared to cover for Pedroia’s absence instead, but with Bogaerts’ injury, it forces them to spread that depth thin across two positions, and potentially field someone like Holt for a not-inconsequential amount of time. That’s a sub-par outcome, for reasons including his poor production in the last two years. But this is what happens when depth is needed, especially for someone that really never needs a break — you’re forced to use guys who aren’t always cut out to be starters at certain positions. It’s times like this when you miss Marrero’s defense, even if that meant biting the bullet when it came to his offense.

This could all just be handwringing. It’s only two weeks or so! The Nunez-Holt-Lin hydra could perform spectacularly and emulate Johnson’s and Velazquez’s starts to the season. That is also possible! All of these players have had very notable runs of success before, for example: Brock Holt, 2015 American League All-Star. Personally, I’d fall on the pessimist side of things here, if only because I keep low expectations in general.

But this is why depth exists. None of them are supposed to be as good as the starter, or else they’d be, y’know, starting. The Red Sox are a stacked team with a lot of good players, and having one of the starting nine be “just alright” won’t trip them up, but it’s probably going to be a bit bland without Bogaerts out there. At least he’ll be back soon, and we can worry no more.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 Roster Recap Compendium

Brett Cowett — Tue, 13 Mar 2018 13:00:33 +0000

During the offseason, we here at BP Boston run a series called Roster Recaps, in which we detail the year that was for every player that graced the major league roster in 2017. Some you might vividly remember (Chris Sale!), while others you’ll struggle to recall what they did (Ben Taylor… ?). For the players in the latter category, we’ve got you covered. If you feel like looking back on some good times, we’ll accommodate you too.

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

A Rivalry Rekindled: The Pitching

Matthew Kory — Fri, 02 Mar 2018 14:00:45 +0000

Last week we looked at how the Red Sox offense stacked up against that of the New York Yankees. There have been articles written about this, and everyone seems to come up with something slightly different. I gave the Red Sox a slight advantage, but your mileage may vary. And that’s fine. The point is the two teams are likely to be pretty close, offensively speaking. That’s only part of the story when it comes to a baseball team though. Pitching is also pretty important, so that’s what we’ll look at this week.

I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.

Rotations

Red Sox:

Chris Sale (6.1)
David Price (2.1)
Drew Pomeranz (2.1)
Rick Porcello (1.2)
Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)

(12.7 total WARP)

versus

Yankees:

Luis Severino (4.1)
Sonny Gray (2.5)
Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)
Jordan Montgomery (1.0)
CC Sabathia (0.6)

(10.6 total WARP)

Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.

Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.

The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.

Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.

But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).

Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he’s always been on the fragile side. Together they’re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.

The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.

If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).

Bullpens

Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That’s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.

Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.

Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it’ll probably be quite close.

Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.

Photo by Noah K. Murray — USA TODAY Sports

Roster Recap: Roenis Elias Faces Two Batters

Daniel Poarch — Thu, 01 Feb 2018 14:00:10 +0000

Baseball is the greatest sport for small sample sizes. It’s the most data-driven sport in the world, and with so many numbers spread across a 162-game season, things can get really weird really fast when there isn’t enough data to work with.

That’s where we find Roenis Elias.

Elias was one of Boston’s roster expansion call-ups this past September, and he made his season debut on September 4 against Toronto — a game the Red Sox lost, 10-4. He faced two batters, striking out one and walking the other.

And… that’s it. That was the end of Roenis Elias’ MLB season. Two batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, one third of an inning completed. It hasn’t even been added to his Wikipedia page. So what does one third of an inning like this do for a player’s stats? Let’s take a look. Elias had…

27 strikouts per nine innings
27 walks per nine innings
a left-on-base percentage of 100 percent
an ERA of 0.00
a FIP of 6.16
a DRA of 0.00
no batted ball data whatsoever (because none of his pitches were put in play)
0.0 fWAR
0.0 bWAR
0.0 WARP

Those last two numbers are particularly poignant to me, because they’re saying that the single out Elias recorded had no bearing whatsoever on the Red Sox season. Roenis Elias struck out a major league hitter, something you or I could almost certainly never accomplish, and it had the same effect on the team as him sneezing in the clubhouse would have. Maybe even less than that, if he got somebody sick as a result. That’s one of the most nihilist baseball facts I can imagine. (ed. note: Eat Arby’s.)

Of course, those 11 pitches weren’t the only ones Elias threw in 2017. He only appeared in 10 minor league games due to injury, but managed to make a stop at just about every minor league location the Red Sox have — one game for Lowell, one game for Salem, one game for Portland, and seven games for Pawtucket. It wasn’t a great season for him in most regards; his strikeouts were down, he walked too many batters, and he gave up 11 home runs in 42.2 minor league innings. Elias has been a decent major league contributor in the past and was good, if unremarkable, in Pawtucket last year, so his true talent level when healthy is likely above what we saw from him this season.

He got that one fleeting taste of Major League Baseball, though, and at least we got some fun facts out of it.

What Went Right:

Roenis Elias struck out 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What Went Wrong:

Roenis Elias walked 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What To Expect:

Honestly? Roenis Elias could actually be interesting this season. For real!

The Boston Globe has reported that he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training, and if he can stay healthy, he offers some mildly intriguing depth. He threw 163.2 decent innings for the Mariners in 2014 and 115.1 more the following year, so we know he can be stretched out as a starter. With that in mind, there’s room for him to contribute in a long relief or spot starter role this season. Plus, he’s a lefty.

(This is the most recent Elias highlight in the majors — over 18 months ago.)

The back end of the Red Sox rotation has a decent few options, but just as many questions. The top four is written in stone: Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello. The fifth spot is still in question, however. Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the favorite, but he’s struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career. After him, we’re looking at Steven Wright, whose domestic assault case is still under investigation by the MLB and could result in disciplinary action. Keeping in mind that even the best pitching rotations never stay healthy across a full MLB season, the value in a guy who can provide some decent innings in a pinch becomes more apparent.

Elias’ biggest competition this spring is probably someone like 27-year-old Brian Johnson, who is also getting a bullpen audition this Spring Training. You could probably call Johnson a post-hype prospect, at least if you define “hype” as “Well, his floor looks pretty high!” I don’t mind him, but it’s also not the toughest bar for Elias to clear, considering he’s a player with a few hundred decent major league innings under his belt. He had a great Winter League showing this offseason, now he needs to stay healthy and carry that momentum into the spring.

And hey, repeating that 50 percent MLB strikeout rate from 2017 couldn’t hurt, either.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Roster Recap: The Wait Continues for Brian Johnson

Chris Teeter — Thu, 21 Dec 2017 14:00:18 +0000

It seems like we’ve always been talking about Brian Johnson as a fringy, back-of-the-rotation option. For a number of years, he was rated among the Red Sox’s top 10 prospects. Johnson, along with Matt Barnes and Henry Owens, formed a trio of homegrown, young pitchers who were to be the future of the Red Sox rotations. Best laid plans, eh? Barnes is now locked in as a reliever, Henry Owens never figured out how to throw strikes with any consistency (and is now a Diamondback), but Johnson is still slogging away, and again presents an option for starting pitching depth for the Red Sox as they head into 2018.

Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

The Importance of Being Eduardo

Matthew Kory — Fri, 24 Mar 2017 13:00:04 +0000

It’s funny how things change. You look at the world and expect the future to conform based on what you see, then when the time comes for that to happen, something completely unexpected occurs instead. That’s what is happening to Eduardo Rodriguez right now. Chris Sale’s acquisition made Rodriguez the sixth man in a five-man rotation, and, as the only one with minor league options remaining, he was the odds on favorite to start the year in Triple-A Pawtucket. That was about a month ago, and in just that short span of time, Rodriguez has morphed from the most unimportant of the Red Sox starters to, if not the most important, then close enough.

The Red Sox handled David Ortiz’s retirement and the subsequent loss of his offensive prowess by doubling down on run prevention with the trade for Sale. That deal brought in one of the premier starters in baseball, but it also added a seventh to what had already been six Red Sox starters, though the trade of Clay Buchholz to Philadelphia brought that number back down to six again. Still, six is one too many and Rodriguez, by virtue of his age (23) but mostly his remaining minor league options was the odd man out. Now, oh how things have changed.

Now David Price is out for the foreseeable future and maybe longer. Now Drew Pomeranz has a sore triceps muscle in addition to any lingering issues from last season’s injury. Now Steven Wright is fully healthy, but is 32 and coming off a shoulder injury sustained from sliding into second while pinch running. He may pitch 200 innings this year, or he may pull a lat stabbing a particularly frisky juice box with a plastic straw and spend the season rehabbing. That’s three-fifths of the rotation that ranges from actively injured to remarkably fragile.

Of course, that’s the nature of pitching. The next pitch could always be the last one. That speaks to the importance of depth because not every team can be the 2016 Blue Jays and get 29 starts or more from five different guys. This is why Rodriguez has taken on so much importance of late. Not only is he healthy but he’s not any of Boston’s starting pitching depth, which consists of Rockies cast-off Kyle Kendrick and the stalled careers of former prospects Brian Johnson and Henry Owens. Johnson is coming off a lost season due to anxiety issues and, though he seems to be feeling better, his pitching has looked rusty to say the least. For Owens it’s the same old control problems that he’s never been able to shake. Kendrick has looked quite good but, again, it’s Spring Training, and we’re talking about a pitcher who A) hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015, and B) put up an ERA over six that season. Right now the fewer innings pitched by those three, the better the Red Sox will be.

Every game started by former sixth starter Rodriguez is a game the Red Sox don’t have to dip into that nonexistent depth.

Starting pitching depth not withstanding, it seems fair to say after looking at Boston’s roster that this could be a very good baseball team. PECOTA projects them for first in the East by three games. But the more games Kendrick starts, the more games the bullpen has to soak up after Owens throws 50 pitches and can’t get out of the second, the further down the standings the Red Sox will plummet. Every game started by former sixth starter Rodriguez is a game the Red Sox don’t have to dip into that nonexistent depth. As good as the Red Sox could be, they’re in no position to throw games away.

So that’s why Rodriguez is important. He’s a starter with an arm attached, a healthy shoulder, a healthy elbow, and his name isn’t Kyle Kendrick or Henry Owens. That’s a good start! But might Rodriguez actually be good in 2017? I should start by noting PECOTA isn’t especially jazzed about him, pegging him for just under a win (0.8 WARP), a 4.18 ERA, and eight quality starts out of 16. Meh. What PECOTA doesn’t know though is that Rodriguez struggled with his command, with pitch tipping, and with just about everything following a knee injury during spring training. After giving up nine runs in 2.2 innings to Tampa in late June, Rodriguez was sent to Pawtucket. At the time of his demotion, he had thrown 29.1 innings on the year and given up 29 runs.

When he came back, he was a completely different pitcher. In the next 77.2 innings he gave up 28 runs, one fewer than he had in his first six starts. He struck out 79 of 321 hitters he faced, or 24.6 percent. For some context, last season Jon Lester struck out 24.8 percent of the hitters he faced. David Price struck out 24 percent, Jake Arrieta K’d 23.9 percent, and Cole Hamels 23.6 percent. That’s good company. Of course, it means less if comes with a ton of walks and homers. After returning to the bigs, Rodriguez walked 8.7 percent of the hitters he faced (8.4 if you don’t count intentional walks) and he gave up seven homers, or one every other start, which is perfectly reasonable. The guy who went down to Pawtucket was not a major league-quality pitcher, but the guy who came back was a number two in most starting rotations.

There isn’t anything in those numbers that looks unsustainable either. The BABIP was good but not ridiculous, the batted ball profile matched the results, and so did the strikeouts, walks, and homers. The Rodriguez that spent the second half in Boston was legitimately a very good pitcher.

Perhaps the most interesting part of Rodriguez’s reemergence was the alteration of his pitch mix. When he started the season he was throwing mostly fastballs with the occasional changeup and a very occasional cutter. Only rarely would he employ a slider. Then after coming back from Triple-A, the cutter disappeared, usage of the change dropped from 18 percent to eight percent, and the slider became his favorite off-speed pitch. That changed bit-by-bit, month-by-month until September and October, when the change had reemerged as the preeminent out-pitch, though the slider remained a frequent offering. Overall, Rodriguez seems to have learned not to lean too heavily on any one pitch.

With the obvious caveat that Spring Training stats aren’t extremely meaningful, we haven’t seen anything this spring to indicate we should expect anything other than the second half Rodriguez, the good Rodriguez, this season. His velocity is good, his strikeouts are there, and his control looks strong.

He will have bad starts. All pitchers have them. And for all the excitement of this article, Rodriguez has shown a proclivity towards injury in his career, including tweaking a knee in winter ball this past December. While it is fair to be concerned about those injuries, the positive is that none have been arm or shoulder injuries. If one really wants to paint the linings silver, you could say they’ve even functioned so as to limit Rodriguez’s innings over the past few seasons, which should hopefully keep his arm fresher. In reality though, no injury is ever good, but there’s no real reason to think Rodriguez is especially injury prone either.

With the precarious position the Red Sox find themselves with regard to the starting rotation, it’s good they have someone like Eduardo Rodriguez poised to take the next step. In fact, Rodriguez really already took that next step last season. Now he just needs to do it for longer than 77 innings. We already know he is someone who can make up for injuries suffered by his rotation-mates, and keep the team from having to put too many weak band-aids on sweaty hands. This year though a once strong Red Sox rotation had him on the outside looking in, but now the opportunity to be more than just a guy has arisen. Now he may just be the guy who holds this thing together. It’s funny how things work out sometimes.

Photo by Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports

Roster Recap: Let’s Root for Brian Johnson

Bryan Joiner — Thu, 19 Jan 2017 11:00:53 +0000

Welcome to BP Boston’s second annual Roster Recap series. Over the next few months, we’ll be analyzing every player on Boston’s 40-man roster and many of their top prospects in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the Red Sox roster’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as what we can expect moving forward. From MVP-candidate right fielders to reserve relievers, we want to give you a look at every Red Sox who might matter in 2017. View the complete list of Roster Recaps here. Enjoy!

The numbers don’t necessarily show it, but 2016 was a huge year for Brian Johnson. Once a highly touted prospect — he was a first-round pick in 2012 — the lefty actively sought treatment for anxiety issues that threatened to derail his career in secret. As Alex Speier wrote, these issues presented themselves in numbness that trickled down his left (throwing) arm, down to his fingers; a distressing physical condition for anyone, leastwise someone who makes their living using the same arm. Fortunately for Johnson, he plays in an age where any organization worth a damn is both receptive to and proactive toward treating problems of this kind. With help, he’s working his way back toward the big leagues.

What went right in 2016

When Johnson asked for help after two bad starts at Pawtucket in May, he took a huge step forward toward a real major league career. It was not a step back. Previously sleepless and unable to concentrate on anything except baseball at any hour of the day, Johnson put the game aside and was finally able to rest. Between rest and therapy, he got himself right enough to at first begin living a stress- (and baseball-) free life, however possible. As Speier reported, he “started playing on his PS4 and going to virtually every movie he could.” Eventually Johnson started throwing and made appearances for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and Lowell Spinner before returning to the PawSox to finish out his season. Across 77 innings at Triple-A, he put up a 4.09 ERA with a 54:36 K:BB ratio.

What went wrong in 2016

From a pure baseball perspective, Johnson’s minor league numbers have always threatened not to translate to the majors on a simple stuff level: he’s a soft-tossing lefty, albeit one with four pitches. The numbers in 2016 weren’t great, but, really, it’s beside the point. He was great in college and has been reliably good across the Sox minor league system, with an 2.60 ERA over 425.1 minor league innings. If 2016 is representative of his true talent level, he’s probably in trouble in the long-term, but there’s every reason not to nitpick last year’s performance. Sometimes it just doesn’t any damn good.

What to expect in 2017

Hopefully, Johnson remains healthy and continues his road back to the majors (he made one spot start in 2015). Unfortunately for him, the Red Sox don’t exactly lack for lefty starters at the moment, but that has a way of changing quickly. At age 26, Johnson figures to be either running out of time or running into his peak fairly soon (or both), but if it’s the latter, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him called upon to make another emergency start or two during the year. It’s the whole reason he’s still around the organization, and hey: one start can turn into two, and two to three, and so on. The Red Sox believe in him. Thankfully for everyone, he does now, too.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

From BP: 2017 Red Sox Top 10 Prospects List ($)

Ben Carsley — Fri, 02 Dec 2016 13:04:42 +0000

By Jeffrey Paternostro, Ben Carsley and the BP Fantasy Staff

The State of the System: I could just C&P the Nats lines here. Incredible top five, falls off quickly after that, and past the top ten, even fewer intriguing names than the Nats.

The Top Ten

The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?

Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.

Read the rest ($) at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Fenway’s Future: Brian Johnson, Mauricio Dubon, Jason Groome and More

Josh Slavin — Tue, 23 Aug 2016 12:15:29 +0000

Welcome to this week’s edition of Fenway’s Future. We’ll look at a trio of pitchers, including Brian Johnson, the next-likeliest minor league candidate to get a spot-start opportunity with the Red Sox, as well as the top two pitching prospects in the system. We’ll also take a look into That Guy At Double-A Who Isn’t Benintendi or Moncada (i.e. Mauricio Dubon) and check in on Rusney Castillo. And, of course, Yoan Moncada.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Johnson has had something of a tough 2016, working through anxiety issues that sidelined him for the better part of two months. The lefty returned to action at the beginning of July, making four starts in the low minors (two in rookie ball, another pair for Low-A Greenville) before returning to his spot in the Pawtucket rotation July 24. And since doing so, he’s been impressive. His first start back with the Triple-A squad was rough, as he lasted just three innings. But Johnson’s four subsequent starts have been masterful, working to a 1.78 ERA with a 3-1 record across a combined 25.1 innings. He has never had much in the way of a swing-and-miss pitch (nothing compared to the almighty Joe Kelly’s #stuff), and that hasn’t changed this year. But in these past four starts, Johnson has shown very solid control, walking only four while striking a passable 15. That has been good enough to keep his WHIP at a remarkably tidy 0.91.

The almost-downside to this short stretch is Johnson’s slightly inflated 3.57 FIP. All of these stats, of course, are accompanied by a flashing bright red sign reading “small sample size.” Regardless, props to Brian Johnson. By all accounts, it’s been a tough year for the big hurler, but he’s bounced back to an impressive performance level. After Henry Owens’ eight-run showing on Sunday, Johnson could be next in line to start if Eduardo Rodriguez can’t make his next start.

Also hey don’t look now but Rusney Castillo kinda sorta might be hitting .366 since July 27. He also may or may not have zero home runs in that 22-game span. But, psh, who likes homers anyway. Hooray for $72.5 million Cuban investments!

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

So, you may have heard, but the Red Sox have two young prospects that have spent the bulk of the season in Portland. And, believe it or not, the Sea Dogs have players that are not Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi. Mauricio Dubon is one of those players, and also concurrently is good at baseball. Dubon is slashing .332/.365/.526 in 49 games since being called up to Double-A, knocking four homers and driving in 31. All of those dingers have come since July 31, during an 18-game stretch where the Dubon is hitting .370 with a 1.066 OPS.

Dubon clearly thinks walks are for nerds, taking free passes just 4.8 percent of the time, but he’s also not too whiff-prone, striking out in just 9.9 percent of at-bats since the end of July. SoxProspects has Dubon listed as the 11th-best prospect in the Red Sox system, but he might climb his way up at least slightly if he wraps up the season hitting as well as he has thus far at Double-A.

Quick update on Yoan Moncada:

The Cuban phenom is back from a pretty rough-looking ankle sprain. And he’s playing third now, where he could actually find playing time at the Major League level! Swell! Well, in his first game at the hot corner, Moncada went 0-for-5 with four punch outs and an error. So, yeah. But from the good news corner, he looked better in his second day at third on Monday. According to noted smart person Ben Badler of Baseball America, he has a plus arm and good range on the left side of the infield.

High-A Salem: Michael Kopech (RHP)

He may not be touching 105 MPH in every start, but Kopech has remained incredibly effective with the Salem squad in his couple months since returning to the mound. The somehow-just-20-year-old is 3-1 (meaningless win-loss record alert!) with a 1.29 ERA in 10 starts. He’s walked a bunch of dudes who definitely are incapable of hitting him, issuing 26 free passes while only allowing 27 hits. Still, he has kept his WHIP at a very palatable 1.09. Kopech also refuses to stop striking everyone out. Seriously, it’s a little ridiculous. He has 75 punch outs in 48.2 innings pitched. He has 10 or more K’s in three of his past four starts. Kopech might be just a little bit too good for High-A.

Gulf Coast League: Jason Groome (LHP)

Yeah, that’s right, we’re going all the way down to Rookie Ball in Fort Myers. You probably thought you wouldn’t have to hear about that place until next February, yet here we are, and it’s all due to 12th-overall pick this year Jason Groome. The left-hander made his professional debut on Monday, throwing two shutout innings on 30 pitches, 19 of which went for strikes. He allowed a single hit and struck out three. If you want to read some actual reporting and quotes from Groome’s debut, go check out Alex Speier’s writeup in the Globe. In the meantime, rejoice over the addition of another pitching prospect to pile high with unreasonable expectations!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Fenway’s Futures: Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Rafael Devers and More

Cam Ellis — Wed, 27 Jul 2016 12:40:17 +0000

Welcome to Fenway’s Futures. This week we look into the return of Brian Johnson, lament another subpar performance from Henry Owens and take a look at this week’s top performers throughout the minors. Because we know what you’re here for, we also give an update on the top prospects.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

After a slew of promising starts for Johnson, the lefty hit a small bump in the road during his latest outing. On Sunday, Johnson only lasted three innings in Columbus, allowing four earned runs on six hits in three innings. He also struck out one and walked four, throwing 78 pitches, 46 of them being strikes. It was an unfortunate outing to cap off what had been, for the most part, an encouraging July from Johnson.

This was his first start for Pawtucket since he took some time off, so an adjustment period is to be expected. Anxiety is no joke, and with other viable (whatever, they might be) options in Triple-A, there’s no real rush for Johnson. Still, he didn’t look half bad in four starts split between Lowell and the Red Sox Gulf Coast affiliate, so the potential is still there. It will be interesting to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before he was placed on the temporary inactive list in early May.

Quick update on Henry Owens

If you can believe it, Owens followed up a strong start with a poor one. After posting seven innings of one-hit ball on the 16th — arguably his strongest outing of the year — Owens was flat five days later, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. He also walked three.

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

He’s the one raking in Portland that isn’t mentioned in Chris Sale rumors. Over the last 10 games he’s hitting .421 and is riding a seven game hitting streak. MLB.com has Dubon ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Red Sox system. He started the year in Salem, slashing .306/.387/.379 (with a pedestrian .766 OPS, though) and has missed a beat since being promoted. In 27 games at Portland, he’s hitting .333/.372/.476 and raised that OPS to .848.

The irony of him not being mentioned in trade rumors is that if the Sox make a move over the next week, it’s more likely than not it’s Dubon on the move than Benintendi or Moncada. It’s unfortunate that he’s blocked by two organizational cornerstones and a third wunderkind that might very well also be one, but Dubon is a nice prospect who could turn into a serviceable every day starter for someone down the line.

Quick Update on Yoan Moncada

The last 10 days in Portland haven’t been kind to Moncada, who’s hitting a measly .167 over that last span. He hasn’t hit a home run since he hit two in one game on July 18th. [Editor’s note: These stats are through 7/25, and Moncada did hit a homer last night]

Even Quicker Update on Andrew Benintendi

He’s playing left field now! It’s all happening!

High-A Salem: Rafael Devers (3B)

He’s had quite a week, hitting .300/.391/.650 with a 1.041 OPS over the last seven days. He’s hit .378/.434/.711 during an out-of-his-mind stretch throughout July. This season, his month splits go as such:

April: .138/.242./.263
May: .245/.301/.351
June: .313/.351/.386
July: .378/.434/.711

It’s well documented that Devers was wildly unlucky to start the year – in April he had a ugly .145 BABIP. This July, that numbers up at .458, which is fun. Totally, completely unsustainable, but fun. In a perfect world Portland plays at least a few games with Benintendi, Devers, and Dubon all on the left side with Moncada at second. Could that team beat the Sixers!?

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

He’s hitting .318 over the last week and .373 in the month of July. Considering he’s a career .260 hitter throughout his short career, there’s probably some sort of regression not far away. He has five plus tools, although scouts seem to be the least confident in the hit tool. He’s shown some of that surprising power this month as well, hitting four home runs while only hitting six in the previous three months combined.

He was also born in 1996, and there’s nothing quite like writing about young prospects to help remind you that time is fleeting and we all grow old.