Christian Vazquez has suffered a broken right pinky finger and will need surgery, and the timeline for recovery from that is roughly six-to-eight weeks. With him out of the game, Sandy Leon will take the lion’s share of starts behind home plate, which leaves the position of backup catcher to the seldom-used Blake Swihart. For Swihart to actually see somewhat consistent time behind home plate — time that doesn’t involve him as a late-game replacement or as someone to catch warm-up pitches while either Vazquez or Leon gets their pads on — is actually surprising. From the beginning of the season, it was tough to visualize Swihart getting triple-digit innings actually, y’know, catching for a pitcher.

While this is something of a testament to the depth the Red Sox have, they really shouldn’t be getting much credit for it. If the Red Sox actually saw Swihart as a catcher first, they would’ve realized the redundancy of holding three catchers a long time before now. Instead, he’s been tried out at the corner infield positions and still run him out for a handful of innings in left field — a move that evokes flashbacks to how his 2016 season ended. So it would be stretching the truth to say the Red Sox saw him as a catcher first and not (however optimistically) a utility player coming off the bench. Swihart’s been taking up the 24th spot on the roster because the Red Sox ran out of options for him, and feel that he’s too valuable to let go, especially when his value is as low as it is. In that regard, they’re correct.

But the idea that the Red Sox kept Swihart as preparation for a Vazquez or Leon injury is naïve at best, and blind loyalty at worst. Third-string catchers can be had for a bucket of baseballs, and hell, Dan Butler is still on Pawtucket’s roster. He’d work just fine as a backup to the backup. Swihart’s there because the Red Sox thought his talent was too good to let go, not because the catcher tandem they had was somehow injury-prone. Catchers get nicked and dinged all year long, but outside of needing Tommy John surgery a few years ago, Vazquez wasn’t ever bitten by an injury bug until now. It’s simply bad luck for Vazquez, and a renewed chance to catch for Swihart. These things simply happen. But that’s enough fiery distrust of the Red Sox for one article.

Now we get to see what Blake Swihart is like when he actually plays catcher consistently, and quite frankly, this has been something long overdue from the former top prospect. Maybe there’s some post-post-sleeper hype in here, or maybe the talent doesn’t translate to productive skill. He’s got two months to show it, at the very least.

If we look at offensive production from the catcher position, the needle doesn’t really change much with Leon and Swihart. Neither Vazquez nor Swihart were offensive juggernauts, and the Red Sox were getting a combined .600 OPS from the position, good for 26th in the league. The bar’s set pretty low, all things considered. Going by history, Swihart’s supposedly a better hitter than Vazquez, so there’s a chance we could see a spark there. But that history is sourced from the last time he’s played a full season — over four years ago. Since 2015, Swihart’s had only 930 plate appearances in professional baseball. Outside of the second half of 2015, he’s had neither health nor consistency of playing time since then. I guess what I’m saying is that he’s one hell of a wild card when it comes to what he’ll do at the plate. He’s probably going to be mediocre, but I’m always here for a happy tale of an oft-injured player exceeding expectations and making it in big leagues. Expect little, but hope for a lot.

Defensively, well, things are a little more concrete there. Vazquez, as per usual, is an excellent defender, while Swihart has had issues with defending going back to his low minors days. He’s not a butcher, but calling him above average behind the plate is a little too optimistic for my tastes. Let’s just put this one down as “probably not going to be as good” and move on.

Look, you should be at least a little happy he’s going to get more time in the field at his original position, regardless of how or why he ended up in this situation. I’m definitely intrigued by it, and you should be too. He desperately needs the consistent playing time, and if that talent is still there, that might be all he needs. These next two months might just be Swihart’s only chance to stick with the Red Sox, and work his way back into their future plans, no matter how small or large that role might be.

Header photo courtesy of Troy Taormina — USA TODAY Sports

102.2 miles per hour. That’s squarely in Aroldis Chapman territory. And as eye-popping as that is, there are a few key things you should notice. Firstly, had Aaron Judge not fouled it off, it would’ve been a ball. There’s no debating that. It wasn’t going to be in the zone for any umpire, even C.B. Bucknor’s. But before you tell me it was supposed to be there, let me bring up my second point: it’s way off target. Christian Vazquez sets up on the inside corner, and Kelly launches his firecracker up around Judge’s collarbone. Frankly, I’m surprised Vazquez had his glove up there in time, given the velocity and where he originally wanted it to go. Lastly, observe Judge actually fouling that off. If you’re throwing 102 that high and it’s still getting fouled off or hit into play, you’ve screwed up. They’re either counting on it or it’s predictable — maybe both! It’s not as bad as throwing 103 in the zone and watching your lead disappear, but still, it’s pretty bad.

That’s Joe Kelly in a nutshell. His velocity is there, the Stuff is Great, but the results you’d expect never materialized, due to either bad control or, like last year, a frustrating inability to strike guys out. Nearly a year ago to this day, Chris Teeter wrote about Kelly’s lack of strikeouts in these same webpages, and noted that Kelly was just one strike away from really becoming a reliable contributor in the bullpen. The ineffectiveness with two strikes really did show last year, as Kelly routinely could not turn those advantageous counts into outs. He was fine on 0-2, with a .171 opposing OBP on batters through that count. But anything more than that, and you’d be hard-pressed to find good numbers. Through 1-2 counts, over 30 percent of batters reached base. When it went to 2-2, that number jumped to 35. In full counts, Kelly allowed 25 of 51 total batters faced to reach base. He had 21 walks and seven strikeouts. That’s downright repulsive.

So far in 2018, Kelly’s been much better. Ever since the Opening Day implosion, Kelly’s faced 49 batters, allowed six hits with one(!!) walk, and struck out 15 of them while allowing zero runs, earned or otherwise. That’s good for a 30.6 percent strikeout rate, a two percent walk rate, and a 1.45 FIP over that span. And he’s doing all that while still throwing as hard as he ever was. It’s seemingly the same old Joe Kelly, but what’s really going on here?

Pitch selection is key, so let’s start there. Go back to that video of the 102 mph bullet Kelly threw. The ending clip of that is a good slider that Judge simply has no chance on. The slider wasn’t Kelly’s go-to secondary pitch for the vast majority of 2017 — he liked using a curveball that didn’t really do much of anything. It was fairly middling in terms of results. The slider, however, raked in the whiffs.

Other than August, his curveball was really bad at getting swinging strikes. Last June, he threw it 35 times and got zero whiffs, then last October he threw it 10 times with zero whiffs, and so far this month, he’s thrown it four times and gotten (surprise!) zero whiffs. At this point, you’re clamoring for him to use something, anything else. And so, Joe Kelly adjusted.

His slider became his best friend. Couple that with changeup that getting a swing and a miss 33 percent of the time and he’s actually got a pair of useful, potentially wipeout pitches. The changeup is an especially good development, since it seems like common sense to pair a fastball that sits 98 with a changeup — a pitch designed to look like a fastball until the last 15 feet — that averages an 11 mph difference between it and his fastball. With that kind of velocity, you could get whiffs on those two pitches alone. Add a slider in there that isn’t too shabby either, and that’s a potentially great pitch repertoire. At the very least, it’s shown to be quite effective so far in 2018, as his 11.8 percent whiff rate is the highest of his career, while his 72 percent contact rate is the lowest of his career.

It might just be a case of Kelly being more emotive, but he seems to be pitching smarter as well, since trying to beat batters on stuff alone isn’t always a good idea. Back during the Anaheim series, the Red Sox had a plan to exploit Shohei Ohtani at the plate, and Kelly followed suit, blasting a 98 mph fastball down and in for a swinging strikeout. Kelly tapped his head to acknowledge a smart plan of attack — maybe a plan by Vazquez, and then executed by Kelly. That same gesture made an appearance once more in Texas, during a nerve-wracking Joey Gallo plate appearance. He blew past Gallo with a — you guessed it! — 98 mph heater high, and did the same thing afterwards. Stuff alone won’t make you a good pitcher, but stuff in the right spot? That’ll get you places.

This isn’t going to be all optimism, obviously. Kelly has only thrown 14.1 innings so far this year, so we’re stuck dealing with a small sample size until, well, August. Then we’ve got to deal with a .212 BABIP, a 33 percent line drive rate, and a 42 percent hard-hit rate — a rise of eight percentage points from last year. The groundballs disappearing and him throwing first-pitch strikes less than 50 percent of the time are both something we need to keep eyes on. Everything here is more than a little foreboding.

But right now, he’s striking out and walking batters at career-best rates, and finally seems to be rounding into a really good and potentially reliable late-inning arm during a point in time where the Red Sox desperately need one. It’s about time Joe Kelly started, for lack of a better term, punching people out.

Header photo by Kelley L Cox — USA TODAY Sports

It’ll never be time for “on pace for” jokes, but if the Red Sox do indeed hit 36 grand slams this year, that’ll be incredible at the very least. So let’s look at the sextet of slams this team has hit, and enjoy each and every one of them, because after last year, I don’t think we’ll ever fully appreciate the of majesty of a four-RBI knock. Soak it all in while you can.

Grand Slam #1 — April 7th

It says a lot about how hard that ball was hit when all the left fielder does is turn to watch it.

Xander Bogaerts had already lashed a two-run double in the first inning by this point, and I guess he felt the need to pour it on. Jacob Faria’s 3-2 pitch was a flat fastball right down the middle, and Bogaerts got all of it and sent it into orbit. It goes without saying, but Bogaerts with two healthy wrists is a monster.

This was sort of a cathartic moment for the Red Sox, as they hit their first grand slam since 2016, and the offense finally broke out in a big way against a team that had held them to 11 runs in four games the week before. The cure to those offensive woes? Score eight runs in the first two innings against said opponent. Four out of every five managers would agree.

Grant Slam #2 — April 10th

Splitters aren’t supposed to be left in the top of the zone. That grand slam is a pretty good example why.

With the game getting wildly out of hand for the New York Yankees, Aaron Boone left Chasen Shreve in the game to face a gauntlet of Red Sox hitters, who had already chased Luis Severino from the game after five innings of five-run ball. It already wasn’t going well, with the Sox scoring five times in the frame already, then Shreve left a splitter up in the zone that Betts turned into a souvenir.

If you’re going to miss with a splitter, miss down, since it’s a lot harder to hit a ball 400 feet if it’s in the dirt. That’s not going to do a lot of good for Shreve now, obviously, but it’s nice to know.

Grand Slam #3 — April 11th

The very next day? You betcha.

J.D. Martinez wasted zero time in clobbering a first-pitch splitter that hung over the center of the plate. Masahiro Tanaka’s splitter was certainly lower than Shreve’s, but still not low enough. This game had already been marred by David Price losing feeling in his hand and Gary Sanchez blasting two dingers, so seeing Martinez bring the Red Sox back into the game just like that was very exciting.

Of course, this was also the Joe Kelly Fight Club game, so the Red Sox would go on to lose, albeit in a combative way. But at least it was fun, as fun as a loss can be.

Grand Slam #4 — April 18th

This is probably the first pitch that wasn’t outright terrible. Tyler Skaggs kind of hangs a curveball that, to his credit, does end up at the bottom of the zone, but it also hovered over the heart of the plate. It wouldn’t have been so bad if he hadn’t already thrown two curveballs in the plate appearance, giving Rafael Devers an idea of what to look for. He was all over it, and knocked it over the new right field fence in Anaheim for his first career grand slam.

As with the other games in Anaheim, this one was a blowout. The Red Sox hit three homers and the pitching staff combined to only allow eight baserunners all game. At that point, a grand slam feels a little like showboating, but hey, I’m not an officer of the fun police.

Grand Slam #5 — April 20th

Three straight singles to left field to lead off the inning, and Kendall Graveman’s day was done. The Oakland Athletics elect to bring in Emilio Pagan, and before NESN goes to a commercial break, you see that shot of Mitch Moreland and the Red Sox coaches looking at some advance scouting reports. Once they come back to the game, Dave O’Brien hypes up Moreland a little bit, and then Moreland obliterates the first pitch he sees from Pagan.

That almost seems too good to be true, but seriously, that actually happened. The timing and camera shots could not have been better. Pagan hung a slider that caught the center of the plate — where have we seen that before, I wonder? — and Moreland was not about to let a mistake go unpunished. Or at least MLB’s website calls it a slider. I don’t know. It was a garbage pitch regardless. Do better, Emilio.

Grand Slam #6 — April 30th

Bogaerts’ grand slams always seem to have a certain majesty to them, don’t they?

Jason Hammel seemingly tries to jam Bogaerts with a high inside fastball, but Bogaerts, as O’Brien said, jumped all over it. On a 3-2 count yet again, Bogaerts gets a fastball to clobber, and clobber it he did. The Red Sox were sputtering here, as Eduardo Rodriguez was 1. not sharp and 2. getting squeezed by the C.B. Bucknor Strike Zone™, so they really needed the offense to come alive, and so it did, thanks to Bogaerts. Bonus points are awarded to Christian Vazquez for his dance in the dugout.

When a team ties a record for grand slams a year after hitting none of them, there’s no way you don’t try and appreciate what they’ve done. This team is good! Maybe not .750-win-percentage good, but they’re really, really good. The power’s back on, and the Red Sox are lighting it up. Here’s to more grand slams and great moments over the next five months. It’s going to be one hell of a ride.

Header photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

1. This is about as obvious as a retaliation pitch as you’ll see. Joe Kelly legitimately steps towards Austin on the pitch. People who subscribe to the notion that there’s a certain way of doing this type of thing all seemed to think Kelly did it the “right” way, and I hate myself a tiny bit more for even writing that sentence. And then leaving it in here.

2. This is a STRONG reaction from Austin. He wastes absolutely no time letting everyone know exactly what’s about to happen. The most memorable baseball fights all have immediate mound-charging, and Austin slamming the bat is gravy. And then we get Joe Kelly beckoning too? Top-notch theatrics. Baseball fights are dumb, but if you’re going to do it, do it big.

3. Shout out to Christian Vazquez for taking his mask off, seeing Austin charge the mound, and immediately putting his mask back on.

4. Aaron Judge singularly moves entire piles of players. He just sort of picks up Joe Kelly and walks away.

5. Overall game strategy is probably the last thing on Joe Kelly’s mind at any given point, but Frequent Red Sox Tweeter @OverTheMonster has a point:

Always a good idea to waste a pitcher for petty bullshit in a game where you're already burning through your entire bullpen

— OverTheMonster (@OverTheMonster) April 12, 2018

6. What’s the rule about hitting guys? Do you have one pitch to do it? Kelly not only missed him with the first attempt, but hit Austin in his second at-bat after the aforementioned slide. People don’t forget:

The only thing I would had done different than Joe Kelly tonight, is I would’ve hit Tyler Austin at his previous at bat. Other than that, Kelly executed perfectly #YankeesvsRedSox

— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) April 12, 2018

Sorry but it’s very Joe Kelly that he missed the first time he tried to drill Tyler Austin.

— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) April 12, 2018

7. Joe Kelly won, right? It seems like Kelly definitely won.

Joe Kelly literally brough Austin to the ground but Yankees fans think he didn’t win the fight pic.twitter.com/SrBqJgpBRw

— . (@GetMeAnOffense) April 12, 2018

Joe Kelly just won an entire fanbase over again in one night. That’s impressive.

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

Smart teams will trade any player if the return is right. You wouldn’t say Mookie Betts is available but if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout for Betts, you’d make that trade immediately. Swihart isn’t Trout and Swihart isn’t Betts either, so of course, listen to the offers. Swihart is 26 (has been for almost a week) and has played in just 116 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, with most of those coming in the minor leagues. He’s also out of options, meaning the team can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him for nothing to any team willing to snap him up. It seems, based on McAdam’s reporting, that there are many teams who would do just that. Swihart, then, will have to stay on the major league roster, or the Sox may as well deal him.

Depending on the return, perhaps they should. The roster is certainly set up to handle being Swihartless. Between Brock Holt and Deven Marrero, the entire infield and outfield are accounted for — not that Holt would play center or right field, but the team has three outfielders who could move around if someone was hurt, necessitating Brock Holt: Outfielder. Also, there’s Marco Hernandez, whose shoulder is still hurt but who should be back from the DL at some point. Probably. Maybe. We hope. When he does, he’s capable of playing all over the infield and hitting some as well. So what do the Red Sox need with a player like Swihart who offers more of the same?

Pardon me for getting all metaphysical and stuff on you, but maybe it’s not depth that the Red Sox should be searching for after all. The Red Sox possess perhaps the best and certainly the most versatile outfield in baseball. All three guys, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, and Mookie Betts, can play any outfield position, thank you very much. That means as long as two of them are healthy, all the Red Sox need is a left fielder, and they have that in J.D. Martinez. The numbers tell us Martinez is an atrocious outfielder, but he’s also relatively young and athletic, and has suffered from various injuries through the previous few seasons which could and likely did negatively impact his performance in the outfield, injuries which he’s since recovered from. But even if you can’t blame it on injuries and Martinez is that bad, if he’s that bad in the smallest outfield in baseball and only very occasionally then that’s fine.

In the infield, the Sox have two first basemen in Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez who can play second, short, or third, Xander Bogaerts who plays short but could play third if something catastrophic happened, and Rafael Devers who plays third so he can do catastrophic things to Yankee relief pitchers. Then there’s the aforementioned Marrero, Holt, and, eventually, Hernandez. But wait there’s more because when Dustin Pedroia comes back, that frees up Nunez to play all over the place as well.

Clearly the Red Sox have depth. They have depth for their depth. What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable. Hernandez is out and will be out for a while with no return date yet known. Pedroia should be back in May, but maybe not, and as long as he’s out Nunez will be stapled to second base (hopefully not literally), limiting his ability to provide depth. Marrero’s hitting is the inverse of his fielding, and as his fielding is very good, that makes his hitting very bad. Holt was once the poor man’s Ben Zobrist, but that was three-to-five concussions ago. How comfortable would you be with Marrero playing 30 games at third base, or Holt playing 45 at second? Or both simultaneously? Probably not very comfortable, nor should you be because, while they’re probably super nice guys, neither is good enough to be starting.

What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable.

The point is there are questions, perhaps too many questions to feel comfortable. Swihart is yet another question mark, but he’s a talented question mark, more talented than the rest of the group. Also, the Red Sox don’t have to hit on all their question marks. They only need one or two and they’ll have a very strong bench.

There’s two more reasons to hold on to Swihart, the most important of which is the utter lack of catching depth in the organization. The Sox don’t have a single catcher anywhere in their top 30 prospects and nothing playable in the upper minors. That means it’s Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon all the way, all year long. If one of those guys gets hurt, then the replacement is likely going to be someone who doesn’t have any business playing in the majors. Swihart offers something more than replacement level behind the plate.

That brings us to the last reason to hold on to Swihart: upside. This is the main argument often cited by Swihart fans. He was a top prospect as recently as April of 2015, when Sox Prospects had him ranked above Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, and Michael Kopech. He’s potentially an above average hitter, not just for a catcher but for the major leagues. He offers a bit of everything: power, speed, and average. It’s an enticing package.

He’s not 22 anymore though. He might yet attain what the prospect writers hoped for him, though his spring training heroics aren’t as much the biggest sign of that as the fact that his name can be penciled into the lineup for the first time in two seasons.

The great thing for the 2018 Red Sox is he doesn’t have to be better than Moncada and Kopech this season. If he can hit a bit while playing a bit, that’s enough. He’s likely a better hitter than Holt, and definitely a better hitter than Marrero, and certainly a better hitter than Leon. If he stays healthy, shows something at the plate, then he’s probably still an upgrade over Leon long term. That’s a valuable guy, and one the organization shouldn’t be rushing to get rid of, especially for a Triple-A reliever, a C+ prospect, or whatever small return they might receive.

If the Angels call about Mike Trout, though, they probably should do that one.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

That offseason, the Red Sox famously brought in future Hall of Fame pitcher and future Hall of Fame-level asshole Curt Schilling to, as it turned out, co-front the rotation. They also brought in Mark Bellhorn, Terry Francona, and maybe even more importantly, Keith Foulke. It was a murderer’s row of talent, from the front office on down. As it turned out, it was just barely enough to get past the Yankees in a second consecutive ALCS Game Seven. That was elation so high it lifted my ankles off the floor.

That two-year period where the Red Sox went from so close to winning to losing to so close to losing to winning represents certainly the most intense rivalry between two teams I’ve ever experienced or endured in my lifetime. And now, dear reader, 200 words into this, here is my point. The rivalry is back, my dudes! . It’s back! The Red Sox and the Yankees are the two best teams in the division, two of the three best in the AL and probably two of the best five or six in baseball. This season, this 2018, is going to be another huge brawl of a season. They got Severino, we got Sale. They got Judge, we got Betts. They got Stanton, we got JD. So I thought it might be instructive to look and see how these two teams stack up against each other, a tale-of-the-tape, if you will, or even if you won’t.

Let’s start here. PECOTA. The PECOTA projections are here and they are spectacular. Though maybe not if you’re the Red Sox. I’ve already detailed how the Sox individual projections maybe aren’t as positive as we’d wish they were, but in the end and as we all know, games are won on the field not inside spreadsheets. Which is good, because PECOTA has the Yankees finishing seven games up on the Sox after winning 96 games. By any measure, 89 wins for the Red Sox would be an unsuccessful season, but that’s where things stand as of now. FanGraphs does their own full season projections as well, and theirs are slightly more favorable to Boston (which makes them worth mentioning). They have the Sox at 93 wins, a game behind New York’s 94. Better, but not what we’re looking for.

So let’s go deeper. Let’s go position-by-position and see who has the advantage. I’ll give you the names and their projected WARP in parentheses.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (4.4) vs. Christian Vazquez (1.7)

This is one of the Yankees’ biggest advantages. Sanchez is, bizarrely as it is to say, perhaps as good a hitter as Judge. Vazquez is a fantastic defensive catcher, but at this point in his career, that’s mostly all he is.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

First Base

Greg Bird (1.5) vs. Moreland/Ramirez (combined 0.4)

We don’t really know what Greg Bird is as a player yet, but he was as highly touted as Judge was prior to the 2017 season, so there’s some nightmare fuel for Red Sox fans. He missed most of last season with an injury and didn’t hit well upon return, but he’s young and talented so much more is expected of him this season. Moreland is Moreland, and it’s still unclear to me why the Red Sox felt it necessary with a glut of talent available on the market, to give him a two year contract. Best case he and Hanley combine to form the two sides of a successful platoon, so that could happen. Or Hanley could remember that he’s actually a great hitter.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Push

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (0.1) vs. Dustin Pedroia (1.3)

Torres is yet another great Yankee prospect, but for now we don’t know what he is at the major league level. Pedroia is an aging middle infielder coming off of surgery. So who knows on either of these guys.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius (1.7) vs. Xander Bogaerts (1.4)

Ever since he’s put on the pinstripes, Gregorius has continued to get better. Over a similar timeframe Bogaerts’ numbers are going in the opposite direction. I’m still a Xander Believer though, more so than Gregorius who hacks at everything and seems like exactly the kind of hitter the juiced ball turns into something he isn’t.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Red Sox

Third Base

Brandon Drury (0.4) vs. Rafael Devers (1.8)

Drury is Gregorius with a more boring name. He’s got some pop but he doesn’t take walks and he’s not much beyond average defensively. That’s a fine profile for a team with Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, but it doesn’t move the needle much either way. Devers might be the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s that good.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Outfield

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton (3.9) vs. Andrew Benintendi (2.1)

Center Field: Aaron Hicks (1.2) vs. Jackie Bradley (1.0)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (4.0) vs. Mookie Betts (5.2)

We’re doing outfield together because this is getting long. The funny thing to me is that the Red Sox are a team built on the strength of their outfielders. Their best hitter and maybe their second best hitter are both outfielders. Their best fielders are outfielders. This is an outfield-heavy team. And yet, up against the Yankees, the strength of this Boston team falls back. The Yankees won’t be able to keep up with Boston defensively but they won’t be bad there, and what ground they lose there will more than be made up for with their bats. Good lord, those bats. The “ifs” here are health. The Red Sox players haven’t shown any predilection for missing games to injury, but Stanton and Hicks both have missed significant time over their careers.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Brett Gardner (1.8) vs. JD Martinez (2.9)

I don’t actually know who is going to DH for New York, so I picked the best Yankee projection not included in the above sections and put him here. That’s Gardner. But no leftover Yankee is going to hold a candle to J.D. Martinez in the hitting department.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

I was going to do the pitching staffs as well, but this has already gone on too long. We’ll leave that for next time. For now, the results. Counting the outfield as three separate positions, PECOTA has Yankees 6, Red Sox 3. I have Red Sox 4, Yankees 4 with 1 push.

Any way you slice this, and I’m sure Yankee fans would disagree with my analysis, it’s close. That we know. PECOTA shows that. FanGraphs shows that. Our eyes show that. It’s going to be another fun season. Buckle the heck up.

You may recall that in my article last week I looked at three primary factors/indicators that bode well for a Red Sox offensive bounce back. The first was age. The Red Sox lineup is mostly young and aging towards their peak seasons or already in their peak seasons. That means improvement is in the offing, very generally speaking. The second was 2018 projections. We will return to this. The third was under/over performance last season. I took the members of the 2018 Sox lineup, looked at what they did last year, and then compared that to what they were projected to do in 2017. This was an attempt to look at how the 2017 team hit compared to what a reasonable expectation would have been at the time. I found that, unsurprisingly, the team under-performed what was expected of them almost across the board.

Two of those three items — the players’ age and their under-performance relative to expectations last season — were true at the time and will remain so after this article. Now to the second item, the 2018 projections. Here’s what I wrote last week about what FanGraphs’ projections said about the Red Sox lineup:

Going by those same rough estimates, of the Red Sox starting nine, FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance.

So that’s what FanGraphs has to say. PECOTA, however, sings a very different tune. Of the Red Sox starting nine, which at the moment includes Hanley Ramirez, only two are projected to improve on last year’s WARP total. Those two are Andrew Benintendi (projected to go from 1.8 WARP to 2.5) and the aforementioned Ramirez, who is projected to go from -0.1 WARP to 1.5. Other than that Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez are both projected at about what they did last season (within 0.1 WARP either way). For Devers that’s problematic because he’s projected for most of a full season in 2018 where as last year he came up in late July. This means he’s projected for less value per plate appearance despite, well, everything about him. For Vazquez, it’s the same story, but in his case it makes more sense. His offense last season had the whiff of unsustainability about it, so should he come back to earth a bit, and thus he would need more playing time to achieve the same value.

The scary part of the projections comes when you look at the meat of the lineup. Mookie Betts is projected to drop a half win. Xander Bogaerts is projected to drop a win. Jackie Bradley is projected to drop 0.2 WARP but he was at 1.2 last season — a number I don’t agree with considering his defense. Mitch Moreland is projected to be worth 0.0 WARP. So that’s your 2018 Red Sox lineup. Only one guy over 2.5 WARP, and just two over 2.0.

This is probably a good time to point out a few things. Firstly, PECOTA doesn’t know Moreland and Xander played through injuries that very much impacted their performance. It only knows their performance, but presumably, with some health, there’s more performance in there for both those guys. It’s a similar story for Jackie Bradley’s knee injury at the start of the season.

Furthermore, these are only projections and conservative projections at that. To pull from another somewhat notable team, Aaron Judge is projected to drop three wins from last season’s total, and Giancarlo Stanton is projected to drop 4.5. So, you know, things could be worse.

On the whole, these will probably be solid projections, but no set of preseason projections is going to be wholly 100 percent correct. The Red Sox offense could be vastly improved over last season’s output, and if I had to guess, that would be where I would go. I still think last season was a dip in what was and is an overall good offensive team. I think more players are closer to their peak-age seasons, and with some more health, a more modern hitting approach implemented by the new hitting coach, and a bit more luck, the team should be better and far more productive in 2018.

That all said, PECOTA’s projections offer a different viewpoint, and indeed, a greater argument for signing someone like J.D. Martinez. Replacing or augmenting Ramirez’s production by adding Martinez could go a long way if indeed the offense falters in the way PECOTA is saying it will.

Then again…

Given the sheer number of free agents out there, all projections, depth charts, and fantasy predictions are kind of moot, aren't they? Either 100-plus guys' careers are over or they're going to sign and kick over all the dominoes. (Pardon my nihilistic mood.)

— Steven Goldman (@GoStevenGoldman) February 8, 2018

Photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

Leon exceeded (modest) expectations, and while he was never going to repeat his .310/.369/.476 stat line from 2016, he followed up his 2016 campaign with a season that looked more like what we should come to expect from Leon. It’s hard to package a year in which he took a significant step back offensively along with losing his starting spot as a positive thing, but there are some encouraging signs that Leon can continue to be productive in a specific role for the 2018 Red Sox.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Leon made something of a name for himself during his Red Sox tenure thanks to surprising flashes of competent hitting, but he was actually an excellent defensive catcher last year. His 5.5 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Replacement (Adjusted FRAA) was good for 13th best in all of baseball. It was an eight-run improvement from his 2016 Adjusted FRAA (-3.3). Most of his catching stats improved from last year, and you can look check them all out right here. He improved his framing and blocking significantly, and set a career high in runners thrown out (18). After posting a DRS of 3 in 600 innings over the 2016 season, Leon doubled that number last year, posting a DRS of 7 in only 100 more innings. Leon outperformed Christian Vasquez behind the plate in 2017, although whether that’s more of an indictment of Vasquez than an endorsement of Leon is worth wondering.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Leon went back to looking mortal at the plate. Like I mentioned at the top, his slashline dropped from .310/.369/.476 to .225/.290/.354. His wOBA plummeted almost 100 points and he lost 200 points on his OPS this season. He went back to being a significantly below-average offensive catcher, especially in the second half. After hitting .244/.291/.381 with a 72 wRC+ (which is by no means impressive, but tolerable when coupled with good defense) in the first half, Leon only hit .198/.289/.315 with a 60 wRC+ during the second half. During that same time, Christian Vasquez blossomed into one of the better hitters on the team, hitting .314/.359/.453 with a 115 wRC+ over 17o PAs. While the starting catcher battle figures to take place during Spring Training, it certainly felt like Vasquez finally took the reigns as the team’s catcher of the future during that stretch.

WHAT TO EXPECT

If there’s any silver linings for the Leon enthusiasts among you, it’s that many of the attributes that led to Leon’s career-best season in 2016 were still in his underwhelming 2017. Leon benefited from incredible amounts of luck in ’16, posting a .392 BABIP. That number dropped 100 points in 2017, and while a .280 BABIP looks more realistic for Leon, the catcher’s numbers look eerily similar across both seasons. He’s striking out and walking at the exact same rate. There were some signs of increasingly weaker contact, but overall, his batted ball numbers stayed relatively unchanged. His rate of contact stayed consistent, and he didn’t chase more pitches out of the zone. Put simply, the regression everyone and their mothers saw coming came.

Leon is a backup catcher. He’s not exceptional behind the plate, but he’s not unreliable either. He’s not much of a hitter, but he can hold his own at the bottom of the order. At this point, Christian Vasquez (or Blake Swihart? Anyone? Anyone?) should be the starting catcher, with Leon acting as the backup/Chris Sale’s personal backstop. His contract was tendered at the beginning of December, so it stands to reason that Leon will be back with the team this year. I don’t know if Christian Vasquez is a starting catcher, but I do know that Leon is a backup catcher, and for the short term, that works just fine for the Red Sox.

Photo by Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports