We all know that Moreland has been playing well and the desire to get him more playing time certainly factored into the decision to designate Hanley Ramirez for assignment on May 25th. What is shocking is just how good Moreland has been when you look at his numbers. Moreland is leading all American League first basemen with a .313 True Average while slashing .292/.355/.606. If you’re curious, that .606 slugging percentage is the best in the entire league among first basemen. Moreland has done this while being an above average defender at the position, placing him second in the AL in WARP at 0.83.

The only player ahead of Moreland in WARP is Jose Abreu, who is in the midst of another typical Abreu-like season with a WARP of 0.86. Since Ramirez was just recently designated for assignment, and received ample playing time before said transaction, Moreland had only appeared in 43 games this year, while Abreu has played in 54. Despite playing fewer games, they both have nine home runs on the season, and Abreu has just three more RBI, with 31. Moreland has been more effective on a game-by-game basis, has played better defense, and his .403 wOBA is clearly ahead of Abreu’s mark of .373. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Smoak having down years, and Edwin Encarnacion only playing seven games at first base, the vote will surely come down to these two.

Like it or not, the fans have the vote in the All-Star game, and the Red Sox, by holding the best record in baseball, have drawn far more attention than the second-to-worst record amassed by the White Sox. It’s a little harsh to say, but few fans care about the White Sox right now. Abreu is wasted on that team, and likely won’t get the support he deserves when it comes to the voting. Should Abreu be traded to a contending team before the All-Star break, this could change, however, as popularity and success matter.

If Moreland does make the team it will be deserved, but it doesn’t mean he is anything close to the best first baseman in baseball. The National League side features Freedie Freeman, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer, and Cody Bellinger, just to name a few. There are going to be some very deserving first basemen that don’t even make that roster as a reserve. By TAv, Moreland is behind Belt, Freeman, and Jesus Aguilar, and ahead of Goldy, Rizzo, Votto, and the rest. If he makes the team as a starter, this will not be a Brock Holt: 2015 All-Star situation.

The Statcast numbers back up what Moreland has been achieving this year, and show some real meaningful change. His average exit velocity is 93.6 mph, which is far and away better than his previous best of 91.4 mph in 2015, and up significantly from 89.1 mph last year. Moreland is making harder contact more frequently than ever before, posting a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate and a career-best barrels percentage at 13.3. Much of this has come from Moreland pulling the ball more than ever, at 49.5 percent of the time — up from 37.2 percent last season. Can he keep this up? Who knows? What we do know is that Moreland is swinging at more pitches in the zone than ever before at 72.5 percent, and is doing damage on those pitches.

His two-year, 13-million-dollar deal is looking more and more like a bargain, and an excellent investment on the part of Dave Dombrowski. This contract is a welcome departure from Pablo Sandoval, Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo, and for a deal that was largely panned coming into the season, Mitch Moreland has gone so far beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.

Header photo by Brian Fluharty — USA TODAY Sports

On a more serious note, Smith’s injury is just the latest in a litany of them for the team’s bullpen. Tyler Thornburg hasn’t made an appearance this season and is currently being shut down for a few days. Hector Velazquez was put on the 10-day DL recently. Bobby Poyner’s spent some time there, too.

Naturally, news of Smith’s DL stint created an all-too-familiar reaction:

.@EvanDrellich: No use in pretending Red Sox bullpen is fine https://t.co/EoVqYcx8aH

— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) May 15, 2018

The trade deadline is 76 days away. The Red Sox will certainly be in the market for bullpen help.

If you're Dave Dombrowski, why wait? https://t.co/M4umftqGTm

— Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) May 16, 2018

Red Sox NEED to renovate their bullpen. Exceptions, Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel. Everyone else needs to go.

— Ozzy Torres (@ozzyunchained) May 15, 2018

I get it. There are unquestionably deeper bullpens in baseball than that of the Red Sox. But before we go smash the panic button, a few things to consider:

• The Red Sox bullpen has pitched 147.2 innings this season, which is good for 19th in baseball. You can choose to view this as a bullpen that’s still relatively unproven or you can choose to view this as a bullpen that doesn’t necessarily need to be relied on as heavily as others, thanks in part to a talented starting rotation. It’s not the strongest point, but that’s why I listed it first.
• Before Wednesday’s game, the top four relievers this year, based on FIP, have been Marcus Walden, Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel and Heath Hembree. The latter three are not only healthy but playing a prominent role in the bullpen; outside of Matt Barnes, no pitcher has thrown more innings than the Kelly/Kimbrel/Hembree trio.
• The Red Sox bullpen has the seventh-best FIP in baseball. Their 8.6 percent walk rate is sixth-best in the league, and their 26.3 percent strikeout rate is fifth-best. Teams aren’t hitting the ball hard against them (31.3 hard-hit percentage — seventh-best in MLB), and they’re doing an average job keeping the ball in the park (11.7 HR/FB percentage — 15th in MLB). And people say this isn’t a quality bullpen?
• Losing Carson Smith for an extended period of time again would be a colossal bummer. With that said, Smith’s season… hasn’t been all that impressive so far. His strikeout rate hasn’t quite bounced back yet and he was walking over one more batter per game. There’s been a ton of hard contact this year, too. He hasn’t been bad, per se, but the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing their best relief pitcher if he goes down for a while.
• Joe Kelly is good this year. We’ve talked about this recently, but it’s worth repeating because hell yeah Joe Kelly is good this year. This could easily open up Joe Kelly: Set-Up Man, which is not great for my nailbeds, but those are of little importance to you and quite frankly, not that important to me either, in a gross kind of way.
• This opens the window for Bobby Poyner, which is an intriguing silver lining. Over The Monster had a nice piece on Poyner the other day, and the addition of another dominant lefty reliever is always a fun wrinkle. In the best case scenario, Poyner settles in as a late-inning lefty, giving the team 100 percent more late-inning lefty options than they had before his promotion.

Let me be clear: the Red Sox could absolutely still use some bullpen help – but they could use bullpen help in the way that every team in baseball could always use more bullpen help. Losing an average-or-barely-above-average reliever is never good, but Smith wasn’t the backbone of the Red Sox’ relief pitching. Telling Red Sox fans not to panic is more often than not an exercise in futility, but please, Red Sox fans, don’t panic about this. Panic about Andrew Benintendi, instead!

Header photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Koji is inextricably tied to the 2013 championship team, of course. His campaign that year was one of the most uniquely dominant pitching performances I can remember, high-fiving his way through countless high-leverage innings on the way to the title. In honor of the end of Koji’s MLB career, I spent some time thinking about how his unbelievable 2013 season stacks up against other performances in recent Red Sox history. Let’s take a look at the competition and see who boasts the best individual bullpen season among Red Sox teams since 2007.

Honorable Mention: Junichi Tazawa, 2012

44 IP, 26.2 K%, 2.9 BB% 0.20 HR/9, 1.42 ERA, 1.82 FIP, 2.14 DRA

I wanted to make sure I mentioned Junichi Tazawa in this piece because, while I don’t think he has an individual season that quite ranks among the best of the past ten years, it feels as though he’s been underrated historically among Boston fans. Images of his rough final seasons in Boston are perhaps a little too fresh in people’s minds, but Tazawa was a workhorse for the Red Sox who deserves some warmer recognition.

Tazawa started the 2012 season pitching for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he hit the ground running as soon as he came up to the big-league club to replace Mark Melancon (remember him?). A lot of praise is (deservedly) spent on Koji’s absurd aversion to walks in 2013, but Tazawa actually managed a lower walk rate in 2012, allowing only five free passes in his 44 major league innings. Perhaps most notably, Tazawa was a horse – he pitched 86.1 innings between Triple-A in the majors in 2012 and exceeded the 60 IP mark in each of the next two years, while pitching almost exclusively high-leverage situations. John Farrell leaned on Tazawa almost to a fault, and although his overuse created issues in later years, he was an indispensable piece of the bullpen puzzle for some time.

Tazawa never got the kind of glory a traditional closer would — high-leverage, non-closing relievers have historically struggled to get consistent recognition — but I haven’t forgotten about him.

5 — Daniel Bard, 2010

74.2 IP, 25.8 K%, 10.2 BB%, 0.72 HR/9, 1.93 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.96 DRA

Statistically, Daniel Bard’s 2010 might not quite compare to the other seasons mentioned on this list, but it’s the context of his brief run as the team’s setup man that gets him here. Bard once looked like the future of the Red Sox bullpen, a potent fireballer with some of the most ridiculous stuff I’ve ever seen. Across his first three seasons in the majors, he averaged close to 98 miles per hour on his fastball and 84 on his notorious wipeout slider, making hitters look completely futile with hilarious regularity. This utterly absurd, 99 mph something that he dropped on Nick Swisher in 2011 might be the greatest individual pitch in MLB history.

Evidently, it wasn’t meant to last. As we all should well remember, a doomed attempt to convert Bard into a full-time starter destroyed first his command, then his confidence. After the wheels came off in 2012, Bard shuttled around the minor league teams of the Red Sox and other franchise, trying desperately to regain some of his former self. It didn’t work, and this past January, he retired at 32 years old.

In 2010, though, Bard was at the peak of his powers, and the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role. The warning signs were hanging around — the walks in particular were a little too high — but he had that sparkling sub-2.00 ERA and he certainly looked good, so we were all willing to look past it. His 2011 might have been a little more steady in terms of peripherals, as he cut back on the walks significantly, but Bard Fever was never stronger than that first full season in the majors. He may have washed out dramatic fashion a couple years later, but I’ll always remember him for that dizzying peak.

4 — Andrew Miller, 2014

42.1 IP, 40.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 0.43 HR/9, 2.34 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 2.00 DRA

These days, we know Andrew Miller as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, and the foremost example of managers prioritizing high-leverage situations over traditional save situations. He’s not actually the Indians’ closer, but he’s their best bullpen arm and a force of nature in the late innings.

Years ago, though, Miller was a struggling journeyman starter who couldn’t establish himself in the majors. Miller had no command over his pitches, and hitters more or less had their way with him — in some ways, it was not entirely dissimilar from Bard’s late career. Miller hit his nadir in 2010, when he posted an ERA north of 8.00 across 30.2 innings in the majors and one above 6.00 in 85.1 innings in Triple-A.

The Red Sox got their hands on Miller with a minor league deal thereafter, and by 2012, they’d finally embraced him as a full-time reliever. It was exactly what he needed; the walks came down and the strikeouts went way up. Miller’s 2014 was the peak of this Boston reinvention, short-lived as it was. He struck out over 40 percent of the batters he faced and combined with Uehara and Tazawa to form one of the most formidable late-inning units the Red Sox have fielded in recent years.

Unfortunately, they were formidable, but futile. The 2014 Red Sox were terrible, falling to the bottom of the AL East immediately after the 2013 championship, and if there’s one thing terrible teams do, it’s trade their relievers. Relievers, after all, are the most immediately expendable way for struggling franchises to bring quick prospect value to their farm team. Miller went to Baltimore, and while Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a valuable starting pitcher for years to come, it still hurt a bit to see Miller dominating the 2016 playoffs with Cleveland en route to their World Series loss to the Cubs.

3 — Jonathan Papelbon, 2007

58.1 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 0.77 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.41 DRA

You knew he was going to pop up here eventually.

Arguments can be made either way between Papelbon’s 2006 and 2007 seasons, but for me, his integral role in the 2007 championship gives that year the edge. Papelbon was a buzzsaw for his entire career in Boston, and the closest answer the Red Sox have ever had to the greatness of Mariano Rivera. He had a manic, unhinged energy on the mound, and while that persona would go on to cause him problems in later years, it made him an instant fan favorite at Fenway Park. There were few more exciting moments in a Red Sox game than Papelbon walking out to “Shipping Up To Boston.”

Papelbon was essentially the spitting image of the traditional closer role, a fastball-centric fireballer who lived and died with his mid-90s four-seamer. He was also remarkably durable, pitching 60 innings or more in nine of his 10 seasons from 2006 to 2015. Ironically, 2007 was the one he didn’t, but he still threw 58.1 frames and appeared in 59 games. These days, he likely wouldn’t stand out quite as much in the current landscape of MLB relievers, but for the late 2000s, he was perpetually near the top.

In addition to his regular season performance, Papelbon threw 10.2 scoreless frames in the playoffs en route to the Red Sox second championship in four years. He was a consistently great playoff performer, with an ERA of exactly 1.00 in his 27 career postseason innings, but would never make another postseason appearance after the team’s short-lived stay in 2009. Papelbon flamed out as aggressively as he pitched, but he’s among the most important bullpen arms in the history of the franchise. The fact that he’s only third on this list is a testament to how great our next two entries really were.

2 — Koji Uehara, 2013

74.1 IP, 38.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 0.61 HR/9, 1.09 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 1.78 DRA

In 2013, Koji Uehara struck out 101 batters and walked only nine. Think about that for a minute.

If his career started 10 years earlier, teams would likely have laughed at the idea of using a pitcher with an 88 mph fastball as their closer. It was still a fairly weird concept in 2013, and he didn’t even begin the season as the closer. Closers have always traditionally tended towards the “97 mph flamethrower” type, which makes Koji one of the most unique pitchers to fill that role in recent baseball history. He didn’t have crazy velocity, but he did have a dominant sinker and a supernatural command of the strike zone, and in that particular 2013, hitters had no idea what to do with him. He was simply impossible to square up on. He allowed only five home runs on the season, and had a line drive rate of only 11.3 percent. For reference, Papelbon’s career-best mark in that regard was 15.3 percent.

The magic was fairly short-lived. For his following two seasons, Koji was merely very good rather than transcendent. Hitters started to catch up, and home runs became a greater bugaboo as he aged – he allowed twice as many in 2014 despite pitching 10 fewer innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped from above 10 in 2013-14 to around five in 2015-16, still a solid mark but not superhuman. In essence, he just got old.

That 2013 season was magical for a lot of reasons. The Red Sox were a team of cast-offs and underappreciated players like Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew. In other words, Koji was right at home. A return to the Red Sox this season was never really realistic — the Red Sox have more than a few right-handed relievers and his level of play isn’t where it once was — but it’s still bittersweet to see him leaving the league. Hopefully the Yomiuri Giants are prepared for some aggressive high-fives.

And somehow, it still wasn’t the greatest season we’ve seen from a reliever in recent seasons. That one came just last year.

1 — Craig Kimbrel, 2017

69 IP, 49.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 1.43 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.89 DRA

The Red Sox paid a hefty price to acquire Kimbrel two seasons ago with a prospect haul beyond what you’d typically expect for a reliever in most situations, especially considering he was coming off a 2015 season in San Diego that wasn’t quite up to his typical level. While effective, his 2016 season wasn’t quite the performance you’d want to see from a player with such a price tag, either; he walked an enormous amount of batters en route to his first season with an ERA above 3.00. Some of the sheen started to come off one of the greatest bullpen arms in history.

Because of all this, I think it’s actually possible we collectively didn’t appreciate Kimbrel’s 2017 enough. It may well have been the best season of his career. Kimbrel struck out just shy of half the batters he faced — astonishingly not even a career-best in that regard — and he did it with the best command of the strike zone he’s ever shown. If there’s ever been some kind of weakness to Kimbrel’s game, it’s that he historically issued too many free passes (career walk rate of 9.5 percent), but it seems he finally just decided to… not do that anymore, I guess? Kimbrel he walked only 5.5 percent of the batters he faced, stranded 93.9 percent of the baserunners he allowed, gave up only 11 earned runs, and pitched 69 of the nicest innings from a reliever in Red Sox history.

While the 2018 Red Sox bullpen isn’t exactly a known quantity — Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are returning from long absences due to injury, while Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are solid but unspectacular middle-inning guys — Kimbrel is money in the bank. He’s among the greatest relievers in baseball history, and he somehow still seems to be getting better. If he continues to limit his free passes like he did last year, it’s entirely possible he could replace his own spot on this list. Wouldn’t that be something?

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps some quick history is in order. The first trade Dave Dombrowski made after taking over the team from Ben Cherington in August of 2015 was to acquire Kimbrel to anchor the bullpen. And that worked. But after Kimbrel? The ’15 Red Sox bullpen was a bit of a hodgepodge. To fix that, Dombrowski dealt for Carson Smith from the Mariners. Smith was coming off a fantastic season in Seattle, and was slated to be the primary setup man in Boston in 2016. He looked great, too, for 6.2 innings before he needed Tommy John surgery. Then last year, with Smith out of action, the Red Sox needed to solve that same problem again. Dombrowski again hit the trade market (because it worked so well the first time) and got Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. Thornburg didn’t even make it as far as Smith’s 6.2 inning before needing surgery to relieve Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. That necessitated missing the entire 2017 season. Because they were without Smith and Thornburg, the Red Sox traded for Addison Reed during the season, but he became a free agent after the season ended and signed with the Twins.

Somehow Dombrowski managed to avoid dealing for another soon-to-be-hurt reliever this past offseason, which brings us to the present day. It seems we’re back where we started, but in fact, we’re not, because Smith is now healthy and throwing spring training innings. To be precise, he has nine strikeouts, two walks, and two runs allowed in six spring innings. Thornburg threw off a mound for the first time almost three weeks ago, but I can’t find any updates beyond that. Recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is no sure thing, far less successful on average than Tommy John surgery, which has become somewhat rote in the baseball world.

It says here the Red Sox are planning on handing over the eighth inning to Smith, but there should be some caution exercised as Smith is coming off a major injury. That’s not to say he can’t handle an eighth inning reliever’s workload. There are numerous pitchers who, once they’ve returned from Tommy John, have immediately slotted back into their previous workloads. Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn come to mind, as does reliever Greg Holland. The future may be bright for Mr. Smith when it comes to health, but pitchers returning from Tommy John often don’t have full command for up to a year post-surgery. Maybe Smith will be fine, but there is at least some question about it, and Thornburg is a complete question mark given his current health (?) and the track record of players recovering from similar procedures (what’s now left of Matt Harvey springs to mind).

Beyond Smith and Thornburg, the Red Sox have a lot of that same smorgasbord of hard throwing somewhat erratic relievers they had back in 2016 and since. Last season it worked. Boston’s bullpen ranked fourth in baseball by FanGraphs WAR. That’s not the perfect measurement to rate relievers, but the point is clear: Boston had an effective bullpen in 2017. But! Half of that WAR came from Craig Kimbrel. The rest was split between a ton of mediocre relievers. Boston had 16 relievers throw six or more innings for them last season, and 11 threw 17 or more. That’s partially just the nature of relievers nowadays, but it’s also because the team struggled to find consistency in the late innings outside of Kimbrel.

This year promises more of the same on that front, as Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly will bring their fast fastballs and extremely walky walk rates to the eighth inning party. Barnes was a frequent and often ill-timed victim of the long ball last year. while Kelly probably should’ve been victimized more than he was. Both players could improve — they are relievers after all — but barring that, there likely needs to be some sheltering from specific matchups and bad platoon splits. Doing that limits their availability, and thus their overall value to the team. Brandon Workman merits a mention as well. He’s cut from the Matt Barnes cloth, but minus the strikeouts, which isn’t ideal for a late inning reliever.

Beyond those guys, the ‘pen is mostly just guys who seldom have the stuff or command to advance past the seventh inning. The farm system offers some intriguing arms, but they’re almost universally still starters in the low minors, which is to say bullpen help won’t be coming this season.

The Red Sox are clearly going to try to sort this thing out again over the course of the season. That’s fine. It worked out pretty well the last two seasons, and really, it’s extremely difficult to build a bad bullpen when your starting point is Craig Kimbrel. But Kimbrel can’t pitch all the time. Smith returning as the same guy the Sox thought they were getting from Seattle two years ago would be the best possible scenario, since it would fill the hole in the eighth inning without asking Dombrowski to head out on the trade market where things can get a bit expensive, not to mention dangerous. If Smith can’t be Smith though, the Red Sox will be facing the one part of their roster not ready to compete for a World Series.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday David Price threw four shutout innings against mostly Blue Jays backups. He struck out five, walked one, and gave up one single. Good as they are, those results tell us little about how well David Price pitched yesterday or will pitch this season. They do show us that David Price is healthy right now. That’s about the best you can ever say of any pitcher in spring training, but it’s downright vital for the 2018 Red Sox as well as future iterations of the Olde Town Team. Hooray!

The astute reader will note that health represents a marked difference from last season, when Price was unable to throw a pitch during Spring Training and wasn’t able to take the mound in anger for Boston until the very end of May. That is yet another in a line of data points pointing towards the fact that Price’s time with Boston hasn’t been what was hoped when he put pen to paper following a Cy Young-caliber 2015 season split between Detroit and Toronto. Price’s 2016 season, his first in Boston, featured a quantity of innings but perhaps not quite the quality that had been hoped within those innings. Then came 2017 when Price was beset by injuries. The team won 93 games and the division anyway, despite getting just 74.2 innings from Price (with 8.2 of those coming out of the bullpen).

A good thing about Price’s 2017 was that his velocity bumped up to 2015 levels after a step downwards in 2016. Price beats you with stuff and location, so it’s not a huge deal if he’s throwing 92 instead of 95, but obviously 95 gives him a bit more room for error. Yesterday in his first action of 2018, Price was in the low 90s with his fastball but still managed eight swinging strikes in just 55 pitches. Velocity isn’t a concern at this point, just health though, sure, getting outs is better than getting knocked around. That he was on the mound and throwing the ball over the plate is the main thing though.

It’s the main thing because this year’s Red Sox, as impressive as the offense looks to be, is going to rely heavily on starting pitching. Chris Sale sits at the head of the table when it comes to the Sox rotation, but Price isn’t far away. With Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez, the Sox rotation has some upside as well, but both those guys aren’t known as the most durable. So a healthy Price will go a long way towards giving the Sox a step up on the Yankees if the rest of the rotation is doing their job, or just keeping them in the Wild Card hunt if not. If Price and Sale are healthy and give the Sox 400 innings, I don’t see how this team doesn’t make the playoffs.

Which brings us to: the playoffs! We’ve seen just about every type of pitching staff have success in October over the past five seasons. The Royals did it with a strong bullpen and little starting talent. The Indians did it with starting depth and a deftly deployed and hellacious back of the bullpen. The Cubs won with a more standardized pitching rotation and bullpen setup. The point seems to be less how you deploy your talent and more that you have the talent to deploy (and that the talent plays well in the moment). Right now the Red Sox have the talent, with Sale, Price, Pomeranz, and Kimbrel in the ‘pen.

The thing about the way baseball structures its playoffs is that it allows teams to deploy their best players a lot, more so than during the regular season. This is especially so for the pitching staff. Sale and Price can pitch almost every game of a five game series. They can throw more than half the games in a seven game series. That’s an advantage over almost every team in baseball.

Since the moment Price signed his seven-year contract with Boston, it seemed clear that he was going to leave after three seasons. The deal gives him an opt-out after this season, allowing him back on the free agent market at age-32 for yet another massive payday. Price’s opting out would get the Red Sox out from under the remaining four years and $127 million of his deal. The only thing that might stop Price from opting out would be a catastrophic injury of some sort. Beyond that, he’s gone.

Except no, because then came the 2017-2018 baseball off-season. Suppose Price pitches well this season, five wins or so, his best since 2015 in Detroit/Toronto. Is any team going to offer him $127 million? Yu Darvish got $127 million from the Cubs, but he was a year younger than Price, and he’ll have to play two more seasons to get it. Forget the $127 million, Jake Arrieta didn’t even get four years from the Phillies. Teams aren’t giving $30 million per season to pitchers in their early 30s anymore.

Things change of course, and maybe next off-season will be different and teams will open up their vaults for 32 year old pitchers again. But, if you were David Price, would you be willing to turn down the kind of money he has guaranteed to him in order to take that chance?

Unless something changes David Price is going to remain with the Red Sox through his contract. The thing is, that might not be such an awful thing. The money will be bad, but if the Sox get a good pitcher out of it, then they can deal with a bit of an overpay. The question for the Red Sox, at least right now is whether or not Price is healthy. Yesterday he was, and that’s all you can ask of a beautiful spring day.

Photo by Jasen Vinlove — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

LEAST STUPID/ONES I’M ACTUALLY KINDA INTO 

Blake Swihart is going to make the 25-man roster. 

Admittedly, it hasn’t gotten to this quite yet. BUT IT SHOULD. Swihart is doing really well in early March, which is absolutely always an indicate of how well he’ll perform over the next eight months. Still – it’s fun to see Swihart put together a run of good baseball, no matter what the calendar says. As it stands, there’s not a whole lot of power coming off the Red Sox bench (unless you think Hanley Ramirez is coming off the bench, which I think would be news to him). I think there’s a real case to be made for Swihart getting turned into a version of Brock Holt with power, and I’d be supremely here for it. He’s out of options, so something’s gotta give. I’d never put it above Dave Dombrowski to trade prospects, but Swihart playing a notable role for this team this year would be a delight.

The clubhouse is more relaxed. 

This is by no means an indictment of John Farrell. Farrell managed the team to a World Series title; he had his limitations, but teams can do much worse than John Farrell. But from a personality fit, Farrell was always better suited for 2013’s roster. As the Jon Lesters and the Jake Peavys and Shane Victorinos gave way to the Mookies, Xanders, and Andrew Benintendis, it became increasingly clear that it was no longer a great fit. Say what you want about his in-game decisions, but Farrell’s disconnect with the increasingly-young core lost him the job. Judging from the half-dozen reports about clubhouse culture this spring, players seem happier. Alex Cora brings in a reputation as a players’ manager, and it genuinely seems like people are enjoying themselves more. Maybe all these happy feelings go away when Spring Training gets old in like three days, but happy teams are fun teams.

PRETTY STUPID/ONES I GUESS I GET BUT EH, I DON’T KNOW

David Price is corrupting the younger players. 

I want to state on the record that I think this falls much farther under the first half of this category than the second. Price and his beef with the local media is well-documented, and both sides deserve their share of blame. Since I am not in the clubhouse after every game and do not live in Boston and do not actually cover the Red Sox, I obviously also don’t know what goes on in there. But Price is, by all accounts, a fantastic leader. Every team he’s been on has gone above and beyond to make that known. The Red Sox have always had a leader, the beat just didn’t like him. It goes without saying that it’s not appropriate to ambush a reporter or team employee on a plane, but do we really think Price is telling the other players to do that? Is Price really letting Rafael Devers know that the best way to deal with the local media is to stage elaborate, season-long beefs with people who write about you every single day? Price is an immensely talented pitcher and noted leader, so he can tell the younger players whatever they want for all I care.

The clock’s ticking for Xander Bogaerts.

I get it, I really do. I wanted Bogaerts to hit 30 home runs too. Nothing makes you delirious like a power-hitting shortstop prospect. Fans have spent his entire career getting angry that his standup doubles weren’t home runs. He was hurt for most of last season and “only” hit .273/.343/.403. You don’t have to look too far up the lineup to see an example of someone else whose power developed later in their careers, so it’s worth holding out hope. But in the meantime, let’s not sit around getting angry that Bogaerts is only pretty good.

EXTREMELY STUPID/SO STUPID THEY DON’T WARRANT A 2ND TITLE

The Red Sox are boring this year.

Chris Sale, David Price, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all play for the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi does too. Their lineup is just one of the best power hitters in baseball surrounded by a bunch of young players who were top prospects. Their rotation has two Cy Young winners and Chris Sale. One of the three best closers in baseball pitches for them and his silly posture theatrics are generally fun. They’re going to play in 300 nationally televised, heavily-produced games against the ’27 Yankees incarnate this year. If these Red Sox are boring, I suggest inserting adrenaline directly into your heart.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.

Rotations

Red Sox:

1. Chris Sale (6.1)
2. David Price (2.1)
3. Drew Pomeranz (2.1)
4. Rick Porcello (1.2)
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)

(12.7 total WARP)

versus

Yankees:

1. Luis Severino (4.1)
2. Sonny Gray (2.5)
3. Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)
4. Jordan Montgomery (1.0)
5. CC Sabathia (0.6)

(10.6 total WARP)

Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.

Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.

The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.

Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.

But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).

Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he’s always been on the fragile side. Together they’re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.

The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.

If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).

Bullpens

Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That’s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.

Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.

Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it’ll probably be quite close.

Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.

Photo by Noah K. Murray — USA TODAY Sports

The operative words in that last sentence are “up to”. Martinez has three opt-outs in the contract: one that comes after the second year, another that comes after the third, and the final one comes after the fourth. That seems a little odd at first, but it works well with what the Red Sox are currently working with in regards to their future. That sounds a little ominous, yes, but it’s not something that we’ve been in the dark about. The Red Sox’s plans for the next few years have been obvious, but the Martinez contract cemented them. This team currently has a well-established championship window, and it won’t last long into the next decade.

So let’s start with the details on Martinez’s contract. Martinez, if he plays through the entire contract, will earn $110 million. That comes with an “if” statement because, again, Martinez has three opt outs in the contract — one after two years, and another after three. He’ll earn $23.75 million in each of the first two years, and he’ll collect the same amount again in the third year if he decides to opt in. Martinez can choose to opt out after the fourth year as well, and he’ll potentially earn $19.35 million in that year and he’ll earn the same amount in the fifth year of the contract. The first two years are the only things you’re certain to get in this contract. That and dingers. Lots of dingers.

The major thing you should notice here is that Martinez’s contract is frontloaded. Unlike David Price’s contract, in which he’d see a raise to a $30 million average annual value if he opts in after 2018, Martinez would instead drop to that 19.35 number from earlier. It’s not a huge incentive to stick around, unless, say, the team is good. Plenty of players have stuck around to try and win with a certain team for less money. It’s not unheard of.

Problem is, when you look at what the 2020 Red Sox team could look like, you’re not likely to be encouraged by what you see. Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz are set to be free agents after 2018, and David Price could opt out and join them in the market if he doesn’t want to stay. 2019 is even more of a disaster when it comes to free agency, as Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Rick Porcello all become free agents as well. In 2020, you lose a major part of the young core, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. depart due to free agency, along with Carson Smith. That’s a lot of key players lost. As of this writing, the Red Sox will only have one player confirmed to be on the books with a non-rookie contract in 2021, and that’s Dustin Pedroia.

So there’s a lot of incentive here for Martinez to only look out for himself, and I don’t blame him one bit for it. Players should strive to earn the most they can. It also suggests a positive feedback loop for whenever the Red Sox start to take a step down from the level of the rest of the title contenders. If the Red Sox can’t sign their young stars to a few extensions, or keep some of their pending free agents, Martinez has no reason to stay. He can opt out after 2019 if everything falls apart, and go to a team like the Los Angeles Angels that desperately needs a designated hitter that’s not decrepit. He doesn’t need to have loyalty to Boston when it comes to other opportunities, and as a player, that’s a savvy business move. Can’t hate the hustle, y’know.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future, barring another free agent splurge. They’re no longer sitting on a hotbed of game-changing talent in the minors like they were a few years ago, and that hampers their ability to acquire players to make an impact on the major-league level, either through development or trades. It’s a bit reductionist, but this version of the Red Sox will only go as far as their extensions do, which isn’t much farther than 2020 right now. If the Red Sox do decide to dump money into the free agent market in the coming years, they might end up like the San Francisco Giants, who are trying to stay competitive in a very tough division despite having very little in the farm system. Whether that’s good or bad is all perspective at this point, since we don’t know how well the Giants will do in 2018, and staying relevant like that isn’t always a massive financial drain.

I’m not trying to be cynical here. Really. I’m not. This is what Dave Dombrowski’s been doing the last few offseasons. He’s been setting the team up for several runs deep into October since 2016 began. But even with Martinez now on the roster, the Red Sox could end up as the fourth-best team in the American League. The Yankees and Astros are juggernauts with a wealth of talent on the farm, and Cleveland’s pitching is still incredible — and they also have a lot of young talent, including the fifth-best prospect in baseball according to BP’s rankings. The window isn’t just somewhat short, but the obstacles are daunting as well. I’d gladly eat crow if it meant the Red Sox bulldozed through the other 29 teams, but realistically, it’s going to be tough, no matter what year they want to compete in.

The title window plan wasn’t unique nor a franchise secret, but I’ll admit it wasn’t exactly put out there for everyone to see. But there’s a downside to peaking like this, and it’s the inevitable drop that comes afterwards. Martinez’s contract is structured so he doesn’t have to stick around for that. His contract suggests he’s the last piece of the puzzle for the final few pushes, and then he can leave when he pleases. He doesn’t have to wait for the Red Sox to hit on high draft picks and shrewd international signings to reinforce their major league talent. That contract is one big exit strategy once the Red Sox start falling apart.

Maybe the Red Sox start handing out extensions like party favors, maybe guys like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers become legendarily good, and then maybe Martinez sticks around for the long haul. There’s definitely hope for long-term success. But for now, the title window is open with Martinez. When it shuts, though, it’ll come down hard and fast, and the Red Sox will have to find another way to get back to the top.

Photo by Joe Camporeale — USA TODAY Sports

But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.