Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Brian Johnson has been on the Fenway’s Future radar for the last couple of seasons. The big lefty is expected to provide the pitching depth the Red Sox will need over the course of another long season. Johnson did not earn a spot in the big league rotation in the spring, as he was limited by a sprained toe that forced him to miss a couple of weeks. The toe injury was costly, but the decision to start Johnson in Pawtucket is understandable given that he is also working his way back from a nerve-related elbow injury that abruptly ended his 2015 season. He was able to avoid surgery on his elbow but the Red Sox are still treating him carefully as they know the sort of asset he can be.

After missing time this spring, Johnson is still getting stretched out, so his starts have been shorter than is typical for an effective starter at the Triple-A level. Regardless, his two outings (4.0 and 5.1 innings, respectively) have been solid. He has allowed only three runs, given up 10 hits, struck out nine opponents and walked three (2.89 RA9, 3.66 FIP). While only two starts, these results suggest the effectiveness he showed at Pawtucket in 2015 remains, and now he needs to continue working up the necessary arm strength to remain effective deeper into games.

If Johnson continues to pitch as effectively as he has in the early going and shows that his elbow and toe issues are behind him, he could be pitching in Boston soon. Johnson and teammate Henry Owens have put themselves in a position to be the first ones called upon when a spot opens in the Red Sox rotation.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Through Monday’s games, Castillo has started four times, once at each of the outfield spots (and another in left field), posted a .375/.524/.438 line in 19 plate appearances, and has stolen three bases without getting caught. Simply put, things are looking much better for Rusney.

Swihart has started two games, both at catcher, and posted a .200/.200/.300 line in 10 PA. On the defensive side of things he has erased two of the four would-be base stealers who tested him.

Double-A Portland: Luis Ysla (LHP)

Last week, I noted that an area in which the Red Sox are thin is left-handed relief arms. With this in mind I suggested this could help Williams Jerez get on the fast track to the major league bullpen. The same is true for Jerez’s teammate, Luis Ysla. The Red Sox acquired Ysla from the San Francisco Giants late last season in exchange for Alejandro De Aza. Ysla pitched well in each of his first two season in the Giants system (172.1 innings, 3.13 RA9, 167:58 SO:BB) earning All-Star honors in both seasons. A promotion to High-A and move to the bullpen for the 2015 season affected his performance significantly. In 84.2 innings he allowed 60 runs! He did strike out more than one batter per inning (101) but still walked too many (43).

Despite the shaky results at High-A last season, the Red Sox have started Ysla at Double-A. Ysla throws hard, reportedly hitting 97mph this spring, and from his roots as a starter has a slider and changeup that can be effective. In four outings this year, Ysla has posted three scoreless appearances around one rough one in which he allowed all three of the runs he has surrendered this year; two coming on a home run to Colorado Rockies’  prospect David Dahl. Ysla is still doing his strike out thing this year, locking up four Ks in his five innings pitched, but has two walks, which is something he will need to focus on reducing if he is to earn another promotion.

High-A Salem: Nick Longhi (1B)

Nick Longhi, just 20-years old, is considered a tremendous hitter, perhaps one of the best in the Red Sox system, who reportedly possesses great power that has yet to show up in games, but is there. After posting a solid slash line at Low-A in 2015, he started the 2016 season on a tear. In his first three games he had a .417/.462/.500 line, but since then his output has declined considerably. Over his next eight games he has hit a measly .188/.229/.281. His primary issue thus far has been in the strikeout department. Longhi is striking out almost 10 percent more than he did at the lower levels, which is an indication that he is having trouble adjusting to the effectiveness of the pitching at the High-A level. It is still early – he only has 43 PA – so he still has plenty of opportunity to show that he can get back to performing more like he has in the past.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Yoan Moncada has a .333/.444/.528 line in his 46 PA, with seven steals (three times caught stealing).

Andrew Benintendi is hitting .326/.396/.651 in his 48 PA, with four doubles and five triples.

Rafael Devers has struggled to a .143/.268/.314 line in his 41 PA, but he has walked more times (6) than he has struck out (5), and is the only one of these three with a home run.

These guys are good.

Low-A Greenville: Roniel Raudes (RHP) and Jake Cosart (RHP)

Roniel Raudes is an exciting player who, at 18-years old, is really young for the Low-A level. However, Raudes does have 18-year old company on the Drive, as Red Sox’s top-pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza is also on the team. Despite being relatively unheralded, it is Raudes who has limited opponents to the greatest extent through two turns of the rotation. In his two starts (10 innings), Raudes has allowed only one run, given up seven hits, walked one and struck out nine. That is an excellent pitching line for this young man. Thus far, he is taking the challenge of the assignment to Low-A in stride. Raudes could be on the verge of a breakout this year, and could see a corresponding jump up the prospect rankings.

Coming out of the bullpen behind Raudes is 22-year old, righty Jake Cosart. Cosart is a converted outfielder and converted starter. In 2015, Cosart struggled as a starting pitcher while with short season Lowell (5.45 RA9, 5.15 FIP in 33.0 innings). Given his ability to throw hard – fastball typically sits in the mid-90s – the Red Sox decided to move him to the bullpen this spring and thus far the results have been better. Ten of the 28 batters he has faced have been retired by way of the strikeout, but he has had control issues, leading to four walks; one in each of his appearances. Cosart has been dominant in three of his four outings. In his three good outings (5.0 innings) he has allowed no runs and allowed only one hit. In the bad one he gave up four hits and two runs in just 1.1 innings. The conversion to life as a reliever is likely still a work in progress for Cosart, but the 3-good-to-1-bad outing ratio is a solid development in the early going.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Jackie Bradley Jr., OF and Pat Light, RHP

JBJ has set fire to the entire International League lately. In July alone, the 25-year-old outfielder has registered a .914 OPS, with five home runs and a 5/5 K/BB ratio in just 60 PA. Bradley has rediscovered his power stroke in Pawtucket this year, and he’s markedly improved against left-handed pitching, posting a .282/.337/.447 slash line against southpaws. He’s hitting more for contact than he used to, as both his walk and strikeout rates have dropped noticeably. Not too bad for a guy who has changed his batting stance roughly 4,000 times within the last calendar year.

What JBJ needed more than anything was reps in the field. Boston’s outfield doesn’t have an obvious spot open for him, and while one might open up after the trade deadline, the Red Sox were content to let Bradley get some games in Triple-A. It’s not the most ideal situation, but Bradley was not ready in 2014, and the Red Sox need to make sure he will be the next time he comes to the big leagues for an extended stay.

Pat Light’s 2015 has been a year of transition. This season was the first in which Light would pitch out of the bullpen, after starting for most of his professional career with mixed results. Light has cut his losses when it comes to his repertoire: he’s stopped using his changeup, put his slider away, and focused mainly on a fastball-splitter combo. The mid-90s fastball is very good, especially in the bottom of the zone, and the splitter can fall right off the table to generate embarrassing whiffs. His issue is command. Light can throw it hard and down, but his control isn’t there all the time, and that usually results in flat, unremarkable stuff in the top of the zone. He’s had a rough go of it in Pawtucket so far (7.43 ERA, 11/12 K/BB in 13.1 IP), but the stuff is there. If he can add some control and a little command, Light could soon be a fixture in Boston’s bullpen.

Double-A Portland: Simon Mercedes, RHP

Mercedes, like Light, is probably best suited to a bullpen role where he can simplify his offerings. He was pretty unremarkable while starting in the low minors,  and switched between the bullpen and the rotation every so often. He’s got a good fastball that reportedly can hit 100 mph, but he’ll lose velocity the longer he works into games. Mercedes debuted a solid slider last year to go along with a curveball that ranged from “above average” to “inconsistent” according to scouts, and a changeup that can move like a splitter, but one can only guess when and where that’ll happen. Remember what Winston Churchill said about Russia? That’s pretty much Simon Mercedes. You don’t know what you’re getting – you just know you’ll get something.

High-A Salem: Jordan Betts, 3B and Mauricio Dubon, SS

As much as you want to hope he’s related, Betts is not in any way connected to Mookie, neither in family and baseball skills. Salem’s Betts is a free-swinger, and despite a powerful showing at Lowell last year, he’s found it hard to adjust to High-A ball. In 269 PA, Betts has registered a .229 TAv, and his 91/25 K/BB doesn’t inspire confidence. He’s got a lot of power – at least that much is certain – but his bat speed is so slow that he’ll have trouble with good fastballs if he’s not expecting them. Betts isn’t much of a guy to jump on breaking pitches either, as it’s hard for him to pick up spin. He carved out a pretty good college career at Duke, where he put up a .919 OPS in his senior year, but he’s yet to show any of that raw power in Salem. Pitch recognition is a must-have for him if he sees himself moving up in the minors.

Dubon, who just turned 21 on the 19th, continues to show promise as he moves through the minors. In Greenville, he slashed .301/.354/.428, hitting for contact and using his good speed to wreak havoc on the bases. While that’s yet to translate so far in Salem, he hasn’t even reached 100 PA yet, and he’s got the skills to get it back to that level. When hitting, he’s got solid hands and compliments those with good hand-eye coordination that allows him to make a lot of contact. Power won’t be a strength of his at all, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but he tends to try and make contact on pitches he shouldn’t, a la Pablo Sandoval.

In the field, he’s becoming something of a wizard. He’s confident, has good arm strength, and can range to both his left and right with relative ease. His footwork has improved greatly,  and his athleticism can aid him when making tough plays. With both the bat and the glove being solid, Dubon has some utility infielder potential here.

Low-A Greenville: Nick Longhi, 1B/OF 

It’s not often that you see a 19-year-old with a great feel for hitting, but Longhi is one of those guys. It seems like he makes hard contact all the time, and he can hit it to all fields. He’s got some power now, but he’ll grow into more as he fills out his frame and matures. Projecting his power can be tough, as it’ll be good if he sticks in a corner outfielder role, but it’ll be merely average if he’s moved to first base. His arm will work anywhere, even in right field; pitching in high school gave him increased arm strength. Longhi has the stuff you want to see in prospects, and he’s only a teenager. He can hit, throw and field all at acceptable levels, and they’ll all improve as he gets older.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Photos

Triple-A Pawtucket: Jackie Bradley Jr., OF and Keith Couch, RHP

It’s officially the All-Star break. The fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. is still in Triple-A Pawtucket at this point is a surprise to few. However, it still feels weird including him on this list of prospects. Not much has changed for Bradley in his three years bouncing between Triple-A and the major leagues. He’s an elite outfielder no matter where he plays, showcasing outstanding range, a good arm and a knack for the highlight-reel catch. He has no trouble tearing up the International League, this season making its All-Star team after a first half in which he posted a .312 true average and a .386 wOBA through 59 games. But there still appears to be no place for him on Boston’s roster, thanks in large part to his deficiencies at the plate in the major leagues.

After a historically bad 2014, Bradley has seen just 14 games with the Red Sox this season. And as you might expect, the numbers are ugly. Compare the 25-year-old’s Triple A numbers to his .182 TAv and .214 wOBA in Boston and the contrast is unbelievable. The majors are supposed to be harder than the minor leagues. But with such a significant drop-off the Red Sox have clearly seen enough of JBJ to know that although he’s major-league ready – as he’s once again proven in the minors this season – he’s not quite an everyday major leaguer. It’s why they acquired Carlos Peguero and eventually Alejandro De Aza as outfield depth depleted rather than give Bradley regular time in Boston. It’s fair to wonder in Bradley will ever be an everyday outfielder for the Red Sox again, or if he’ll at least be given the opportunity to try to become one again.

On Saturday, Brian Johnson became the second notable Red Sox pitching prospect to be called up from the minor leagues, following in the footsteps of Eduardo Rodriguez. Clay Buchholz’s history with longer-than-expected trips to the disabled list leads me to believe that Johnson won’t be sent back down anytime soon. That leaves the PawSox with a much different looking starting rotation – headlined by Henry Owens – than it did at the beginning of the season. One player who’s been a mainstay on that staff is right-hander Keith Couch. Couch is your typical contact pitcher, depending primarily on a low-90s sinker to get ground ball outs rather than overpowering hitters. A 2010 13th-round pick out of Adelphi University, Couch has experienced moderate success in his first season in Triple-A. He owns a 4.47 FIP through 18 games and ended his first half Saturday with a decent two-run, nine-hit, three-strikeout outing over six innings in a PawSox win.

Couch’s highlight in 2015 is a June 23 start in which he took a no-hitter into the seventh before giving up a pair of runs. Overall he’s remained consistent for most of the season, but is susceptible to getting shelled when he’s not keeping his pitches down. Triple-A is still new territory for Couch. If he can put up more consistently effective efforts in time he could become a solid depth arm.

Double-A Portland: Luis Diaz, RHP

Building on the theme of starters in the upper minors looking to further develop and prove themselves, let’s take a look at how Luis Diaz has done in his first full season with Double-A Portland. Like Couch, Diaz doesn’t possess overwhelming velocity, but does get his share of strikeouts. The 23-year-old Venezuelan has seen a drop-off statistically this season, owning a 5.99 ERA, 4.34 FIP and 6.53 K/9 through 17 starts, but has improved as the season’s continued and is throwing the best he has all year. Diaz has tossed a quality start in four of his last five outings despite his success not being reflected in the win-loss column. He’s had just two truly bad outings this season – both in May – and if nothing else is dependable enough to give innings and keep his team in games. Those qualities alone, along with average potential on his changeup and slider, could be enough to carry him further through the organization.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

High-A Salem: Mauricio Dubon, INF

Much has changed for Mauricio Dubon since he was last featured in this series. At that time Dubon was rolling offensively in Low-A Greenville and succeeding as both a shortstop and second baseman. Since then Dubon’s been promoted to High-A Salem, survived a weeklong slump at the plate and is further expanding upon his versatility as a fielder. The 20-year-old from Honduras went 2-for-25 in his first seven games in Salem, but after a two-hit effort Sunday has hits in six of the last seven games, raising his TAv to a still underwhelming .144 through 14 games. Neither the slow start nor the recent surge is a shock for Dubon, who’s been a streaky hitter throughout the season. He’s shown that once he starts making steady contact and finds the gaps he can be a tough out. That success should become transparent once he limits his strikeouts; his K% in High-A ballooned to 19 percent after striking out three times Saturday.

What’s most notable about Dubon is not his bat, but his ever-versatile glove. Along with second and shortstop, Dubon is also seeing time at third base and having little trouble with the adjustment. This could be the start of an eventual career as a utility player in the major leagues. Dubon can already play three infield positions effectively. With plus speed and arm strength, it’s not unrealistic to think he could also dabble in the outfield if needed. That will be especially useful as he moves up throughout the organization. His bat isn’t consistent enough to take him far, but being thrown into new positions could be in the best interest of his career.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Low-A Greenville: Nick Longhi, OF/1B and Michael Kopech, RHP

The only player in Low-A Greenville who can come close to Yoan Moncada’s run at the plate right now is Nick Longhi. The 19-year-old rode a five-game hitting streak into Monday after going 4-for-5 with four singles the day before, and since returning from the South Atlantic League All-Star break is hitting .345 (20-for-58) over 16 games. This hot streak continues what has been tremendous success for Longhi, who was drafted by the Sox out of high school in the 3oth round of the 2014 draft, and who owns a .277 TAv this season. He has yet show much power-hitting ability, but he makes hard contact with the ball and that could one day translate into average power once he develops physically. Longhi is also versatile with the glove. This season he’s split time between right field and first base, meeting regular success at both positions.

Michael Kopech is a player who’s been written about at length on this site (both here and here). And as the season’s progressed he’s continued to justify the decision to keep dissecting his potential. If you read BP Boston – or any publication that writes about Red Sox prospects regularly – you know by now that Kopech is a hard-throwing pitcher with a high ceiling who has been near-dominant for Greenville this season. That’s only continued over his last six starts as the 2014 first-round pick has allowed a total of six earned runs, shrinking his ERA to 2.63 this season. On Sunday Kopech needed three double plays in order to escape with a shutout over five innings, but succeeded nonetheless. As a 19-year-old whose fastball tops out at 98 miles per hour, Kopech has little trouble striking out batters in the low minors. But, like many 19-year-old flamethrowers, Kopech’s command still has a long way to go. His 3.94 BB/9 is a respectable, and much improved, mark, but nine walks over his last two starts serves as a reminder that it’s not fully polished. With that said, good coaching and time to mature and develop should aid his command as he climbs the organization.

Top photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Bryce Brentz, LF

In the early going of the Pawtucket season, Bryce Brentz has been displaying the raw power described in every evaluation of him. He has three home runs and five doubles in his first 67 plate appearances, good for a .525 slugging, and .237 isolated power (ISO). If he keeps this home run rate up he should get to the 20-homer mark that is projected for him. However, coming with this power is the tendency to strikeout at a high rate. Brentz has gone down by way of the strikeout in 29.9% of his plate appearances this season, which is actively bad, and well up from the rate he posted last season at AAA (21.7%). With this said, it is not as though he does not have any command on the strikezone. He is walking in 10.4% of his plate appearances, which is solid. So it seems as though the higher strikeout rate is due to, at least to some extent, his selling out for power.

Bryce Brentz. The next Johnny Gomes?,

The story with Brentz is that he appears destined for a left-field platoon. He mashes left-handed pitching and has difficulty with right-handed pitching. Against lefties this season he has a 1.152 OPS, and a .713 OPS against righties. It should be noted that all three of his homers this season have come against a right-handed pitcher, but so have the majority of his strikeouts (12/20). His performance against lefties was also impressive last year at AAA, as he had a 1.039 OPS against LHP, and a .698 OPS against RHP. In 2014, his HR split was more in line with his skill set, as eight of his 12 HRs came against a lefty, and so was his strikeout split: 44 of his 58 strikeouts came against a righty. I could go on, but the evidence clearly suggests his primary skill is in hitting lefties.

Brentz has not been much of a defender, nor is he expected to be one. Minor league fielding statistics are of dubious value but Bretnz has posted only one season of more than 0.5 fielding runs above average (FRAA) in his minor league career. In the early going this year he is at 0.5 FRAA. The lack of advanced defense limits his advancement and places him behind teammates like Jackie Bradley Jr., and Rusney Castillo. But, if he keeps hitting left-handed pitching the way he has he could have a spot on a major league roster as a Jonny Gomes-like player, which, as the Red Sox know, is certainly a useful commodity to have on the bench.

Double-A Portland: Luis Diaz, RHP

Diaz, 22-years old, is in his second stint with AA-Portland. Last season, in 77.1 innings pitched he posted a 3.72 ERA, which is fine. But his 4.03 FIP suggests that he had some good fortune along the way. In his 14.0 IP thus far in 2015 he has had the opposite issue. His 5.14 ERA looks pretty bad, but his 3.23 FIP suggests he has been pitching fairly well. His three starts have run the full spectrum. One start was pretty good (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO), one was mediocre (4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 2 SO), and one was pretty bad (4.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 SO). He has done well striking batters out (21.5 K%) and limiting walks (6.2 BB%), but as you can see he has had trouble getting much beyond four-plus innings. This could be by the organization’s design (limiting him to around 90 pitches per outing), or something that he really needs to improve if he intends on continuing as a starter.

High-A Salem: Wendell Rijo, 2B

In 2014 at low-A Greenville Rijo showed off his ability on offense, batting .254/.348/.416 in 473 plate appearances. His six triples, and 16 stolen bases (in 22 tries) demonstrated the speed that he has.

Wendell Rijo, a promising player at the keystone.

This year, moving up a level to high-A Salem, Rijo has continued to hit, posing a line of .244/.277/.489 in 47 PAs. He has one triple in the early going, but still stolen base attempts. He hit nine homers at low-A in 2014, and already has 2 this season for Salem, which is great. But, as you can see in the minimal difference between his batting average and on-base percentage, the issue for Rijo so far has been plate discipline. He has struck out in 27.7% of his PAs, and only walked twice. That walk rate is miserable, and is way down from his rate at the lower level in 2014 (11.8%). His scouting report suggests that he is an aggressive hitter, but this aggression may be getting the better of him so far this year. The good news is that Rijo is still just 19 years old (young for the level), so he has time to adjust to the advanced level of pitching, to learn to ease down his aggressiveness, and to get a better grasp on the strike zone. It is also nice that at this point there is no rush to get Rijo through the system.

Low-A Greenville: Nick Longhi, OF

Longhi, another 19-year-old in the Red Sox system, has started 2015 on a tear at the plate. In his first 14 games (59 PA) at low-A, Longhi is hitting .327/.362/.564. He has two home runs, five doubles, and a triple. He has not walked much, with just three free passes so far, but he has also fanned just six times; basically he has been making a lot of contact. Both his walk- and strikeout-rates are down from what they were at short-season Lowell in 2014. But it is still early, so it remains to be seen if things will continue as they have at the new level, or revert back to being closer to previous marks. Defensively, Longhi is listed as an outfielder but many have projected him to end up at first base, where it is thought that his work with the glove will be better suited.

 Photos by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com

From 1998 through 2011 the Red Sox never won fewer than 82 games, a 14-year stretch that included two World Series championships, 10 second-place finishes in the AL East (damn Yankees) and a near annual late-season playoff push. Then, after a beer-and-chicken-fueled pennant race tailspin in 2011, a collapse which cost the Red Sox a playoff appearance, a sub-70 win (non-strike) season invaded Fenway Park in 2012 for the first time since — wait for it — 1965.

The 2012 Red Sox featured an ugly combination of underperformance (specifically from the pitching staff), injuries, and a Bobby Valentine managerial experiment gone wrong. The starting rotation, which was supposed to be anchored by Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, didn’t feature a single regular with an ERA+ better than average. The bullpen wasn’t much better, as far too many high-leverage innings went to the likes of Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon, a duo that combined for an ERA approaching six and allowed 19 home runs. The offense held its end of the bargain better than the pitching staff, but it was plagued by key injuries to David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury while surrendering too many plate appearances to the Mike Avileses and Pedro Ciriacos of the world.

From 1998 through 2011 the Red Sox never won fewer than 82 games.

Following an all-too-brief, all-too-enjoyable respite from the cellar in 2013 (more on that later), the 2014 Red Sox again finished in last-place as the Orioles ran away with the divisional crown. Young players like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. were entrusted with starting roles and didn’t produce as expected (particularly Bradley), while the offense as a whole was uncharacteristically punchless – only David Ortiz (35), Mike Napoli (17), and Bogaerts (12) hit more than 10 home runs. The starting rotation, outside of Jon Lester and a league-averagish John Lackey (both dealt away at the deadline), was a disaster. Bad Clay Buchholz returned, and the back-end of the staff rotated four different pitchers with at least 10 starts and a strikeout-to-walk ratio under two.

The silver lining, of course, is that the 2013 Red Sox won another World Series and this year’s team, by both PECOTA and FanGraphs, projects to finish atop the muddled AL East. One would hope that a trip to the basement doesn’t have to precede every winning season in a post-Theo world, especially for a franchise with Boston’s financial clout, but there are a number of ways in which recent Red Sox failures have helped set up future success.

Major-league development of young players

Teams that win every year have to deal with a delightful burden: they have to play every game to win. For the most part, that’s a good thing. You know, for obvious reasons. On the downside, it makes it difficult to incorporate young players into the major-league mix.

Take the Yankees, who’ve only made one playoff appearance over the last three seasons, and missed October baseball in consecutive years in 2013 and 2014 for the first time since 1993. Despite the postseason whiffs, the Yankees have stayed in the hunt in both of those campaigns, failing to bow out of the race until season’s end. In part because of that, last year’s Yankees team, for example, only had one position player under 30 years old – Yangervis Solarte, who was traded in July for the older Chase Headley – rack up more than 200 plate appearances. In fact, New York hasn’t handed a significant amount of playing time to a position player under age-25 since Eduardo Nunez turned the trick in 2011, perhaps by using a fake date-of-birth that aged him five years.

Here’s a list of 25-and-under position players that received more than 200 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2014 alone:

In each case, the Red Sox were able to glean valuable information about young talent, giving them a better foundation from which to make decisions heading into 2015.

Middlebrooks, Bradley, and Bogaerts were expected to be major contributors right out of the gate last season, back when the Red Sox thought they were contenders. Between two more trips to the disabled list and an otherwise hackworthy repeat of past struggles when he was on the field, Boston finally decided to pull the plug on the Will Middlebrooks Project, dealing him to the trade-happy Padres this offseason for defense-oriented catcher Ryan Hanigan. Like Middlebrooks, Bradley Jr., despite all-world defense in centerfield, played his way out of the 2015 outfield picture with a cringe-worthy .198 TAv in a lengthy look last season after a lackluster debut in 2013. Bogaerts largely struggled as well, but at just 21 years old, there were enough positive strides to allow the Red Sox to stick with him essentially all season – and with a playoff berth unlikely by mid-summer, there was little reason to ship him off to Pawtucket in hopes of finding a short-term replacement.

Fielding a last-place club in 2014 allowed the Sox to call up prospects later in the year for extended cameos.

Perhaps more beneficial than sticking with young players mired in season-long slumps, fielding a last-place club in 2014 allowed the Sox to call up prospects later in the year for extended cameos. One of those players was minor league sensation Mookie Betts, who was hitting .346/.431/.529 between Double-A and Triple-A (at age-21) when Boston decided to make him its everyday center fielder in mid-August. Betts rewarded the Red Sox by hitting .317 in September while showing the type of plate discipline that helped him climb the prospect ladder with a helium-fueled jetpack. Betts started 2015 as the everyday center fielder and, per PECOTA, is projected to be the best player on the team.

The Red Sox also called up catcher Christian Vazquez on July 9th, a defensive specialist who lived up to his name in 50 starts behind the dish last season. Though Vazquez only OPSed .617 in 201 plate appearances, he displayed enough pitch-framing expertise (plus-32.3 framing runs/7,000) and control of the running game (52 percent caught stealing percentage) to make him the Sox’s Opening Day choice this spring until Tommy John surgery reared its ugly head.

The 2014 pitching staff featured a similar trend: the quintet of Rubby De La Rosa (25), Brandon Workman (25), Felix Doubront (26), Allen Webster (24), and Anthony Ranaudo (24) received 61 combined starts, enough work for Boston to decide that its 2015 rotation, at least initially, wouldn’t include any of them.

Scouting and stat-based projections give a team a solid idea of what a minor league player can provide once he reaches the majors, but there’s no replacement for evaluating that player in action against the game’s best competition. Whether it was Mookie Betts’ .388 on-base percentage or Anthony Ranaudo’s 8.8 strikeout percentage, last year the Red Sox were able to use Fenway Park as a test ground for prospects, a benefit that wouldn’t have been available had they been in the thick of a playoff hunt.

The trades (and non-trades)

In both 2012 and 2014, the Red Sox, not surprisingly, didn’t make a single (major) trade that was aimed at improving the current team’s status.

The Red Sox’s failures in 2014 led to them landing Eduardo Rodriguez.

Last year, Boston made a number of deals that were focused on a quick 2015 turnaround. The Sox dealt Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes (who ultimately turned into Rick Porcello), ensuring they’d get something for Lester if a long-term free agent deal never materialized. John Lackey was dealt at the deadline (along with lefty Corey Littrell) for Allen Craig and Joe Kelley, two players who figure to make an impact on this year’s team. The Red Sox also made a number of deals that are typical of losing clubs, shipping out spare parts for prospects of various promise: Andrew Miller was sent to Baltimore for left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (currently ranked fourth in the system), Felix Doubront was traded to the Cubs for a player to be named later (eventually infielder Marco Hernandez), and Jake Peavy was dealt to San Francisco for two pitchers named Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree.

If we harken back a little further, outside of a few small-scale moves, the 2012 Red Sox largely stood pat — that is, of course, until Ben Cherington and Co. executed a late-August blockbuster that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to the Dodgers in exchange for James Loney, Ivan Dejesus, Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Jerry Sands. That trade didn’t work out quite as well as planned, only because Webster, the top prospect brought over in the deal, disappointed in 18 starts in the majors before being shipped to Arizona with De La Rosa for Wade Miley this offseason. More than the disappointing return, though, the trade allowed the Red Sox to famously get back to their 2004 roots. They used their newfound financial freedom on short-term, value-oriented deals in the 2012-2013 offseason, adding the likes of Shane Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Koji Uehara, all of whom played large roles in Boston’s resurgent 2013 World Series run.

Another benefit to major league suckitude: not having to exchange prospects for short-term needs. Here’s what’s happened to Kevin Goldstein’s 2012 Red Sox top 20:

1. Xander Bogaerts, SS – Still in organization, starting shortstop
2. Brandon Jacobs, OF – Traded to White Sox in 2013
3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B – Traded to Padres this offseason
4. Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH – Claimed off waivers by Dodgers this offseason
5. Blake Swihart, C – Still in org., No. 1 ranked prospect
6. Bryce Brentz, OF –Still in org.
7. Matt Barnes, RHP – Still in org., No. 7 ranked prospect
8. Garin Cecchini, 3B – Still in org., No. 8 ranked prospect
9. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP – Traded to Rangers in 2015
10. Jose Iglesias, SS – Traded to Tigers in 2013
11. Sean Coyle, 2B – Still in org.
12. Jose Vinicio, SS – Still in org.
13. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF – Still in org.
14. Henry Owens, LHP – Still in org., No. 2 ranked prospect
15. Alex Wilson, RHP – Traded to Tigers this offseason
16. Brandon Workman, RHP – Still in org.
17. Drake Britton, LHP – Claimed off waivers by Cubs this offseason
18. Stolmy Pimental, RHP – Traded to Pirates in 2012
19. Williams Jerez, OF – Still in org.
20. Cody Kukuk, LHP – Still in org.

The Red Sox have held on to 13 of the 20 prospects from a list made over three years ago. Sure, Boston swapped Jacobs for relief help during the 2013 season, but he was already on the downtrend and certainly hasn’t panned out. Most of the other players traded or released on this list – like Middlebrooks and Lavarnway — were sent packing only after Boston had seen enough to know they were no longer part of the long-term plan. In turn, the Sox have been able to stash players like Bogaerts, Swihart, Owens, Barnes, Ceccini, and Bradley Jr. away in the minors, patiently waiting as they develop into major-league contributors or premium trade bait. Range closer, to Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 Red Sox top 10, and you’ll find only one player – Webster – who has been dealt from that list.

Thanks to two losing seasons in three years and a good dose of patience, the Red Sox have been able to hoard a collection of young talent that rivals any team outside of Chicago.

Increased amateur budgets

Perhaps the most tangible area positively impacted by poor major-league records is amateur spending, an area where winning teams are punished by the rules accompanying the latest CBA. In both the stateside amateur draft and in the international amateur free agent market, teams are given an allotted signing bonus pool based on their previous year’s record and they’re encouraged to stay within those guidelines with a set of increasingly harsh penalties for over-spending. Below is a table that shows the Red Sox bonus pools for the draft and international amateur market in both 2013 and 2015 (data from Baseball America), the years after they finished last in the AL East:

*Estimated, as official figures haven’t been released

Let’s start with the draft. The numbers here aren’t staggering at first glance, but consider this: when the Sox scored the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft, it was their highest first-round selection since they took Trot Nixon at No. 7 in 1993. In fact, Boston had a recent stretch from 2004 through 2010 where it didn’t have a single pick inside the first-round’s top 20. Yes, the burdens of success — of course, the Red Sox did an excellent job developing home-grown talent in many of those years, a credit to their ability to draft and develop. Still, early draft picks are a good thing, especially when you forget about how you got them.

The Red Sox picked Trey Ball seventh overall in 2013. They have the seventh overall pick again in 2015.

In 2013, the Red Sox signed both of their first two picks, left-handed pitcher Trey Ball and right-handed pitcher Teddy Stankiewicz, to below-slot deals. That, combined with a run of $10,000 college senior signings in rounds eight through 10, allowed the Red Sox plenty of flexibility at other points in the draft. The Sox were able to lure highly coveted catcher Jon Denney away from an Arkansas commit with an above-slot third-round deal, and they were also able sign four players from rounds 11 through 40 to deals over $100,000, including a $440,000 splurge in the 30th-round on high school outfielder Nick Longhi. The results have been mixed – Ball’s dipped out of most Red Sox top 10s while Denney didn’t play at all in 2014 after a spring training arrest, but both Stankiewicz and Longhi made solid pro debuts. Regardless of the returns on a draft just two years old, thanks to their 69-win season in 2012, the Red Sox were able to take high-upside talent early in the draft while using their hefty signing bonus pool for later round flexibility.

The Red Sox are again set to draft seventh in the 2015 draft, another positive side effect from last year’s 71-win campaign. And since the first 10 picks in the draft are protected, the Red Sox were able to sign both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez while retaining their top overall selection. The Sox did have to surrender their next two picks as part of their offseason spending spree, leaving them without a second pick until the third-round (81st overall) and with a middle-of-the-pack $6.5 million signing bonus pool. The seventh overall pick gives Boston another chance to add premium talent early, even if injuries and a lack of star-power are taking their toll on the top of this year’s crop. There’s a possibility Boston takes a stab at working out a below-slot deal with a recent Tommy John casualty like Brady Aiken (last year’s first overall pick) or Duke’s Mike Matuella, again using saved first-round money to attract hard-to-sign talent later on.

On the international amateur market, Boston also reaped the rewards of a $3 million-plus bonus pool during the 2013-2014 July 2 signing period. They nabbed third basemen Rafael Devers for $1.5 million, and he used a mature left-handed stroke to post a .910 OPS as a 17-year-old in two rookie league stops last season, soaring up Red Sox prospect lists and sneaking inside Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 in the process. Boston used every penny of its budget during the 2013-2014 signing period, which included three more six-figure signees: left-handed pitchers Emmanuel DeJesus ($787,500) and Jhonathan Diaz ($600,000), and outfielder Yoan Aybar ($450,000). In fact, the Red Sox actually spent nearly five percent over their bonus pool, a maneuver that cost them a 75 percent tax on the overage but no future spending restrictions.

Early draft picks are a good thing, especially when you forget about how you got them.

During the upcoming 2015-2016 July 2 signing period, the Red Sox again have one of the highest bonus pools in the league; this year, however, they probably won’t be able to spend all of it. Since they blew past their budget in the most recent J-2 signing period with a class led by Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada, Boston won’t be able to ink an international amateur for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods. All isn’t lost, as the Red Sox can still spend as much of their pool as possible stockpiling $300,000-and-under international lottery tickets while trading away what’s left of the pool money.

Spending restrictions have made it harder for big-market teams to flex their financial muscle in amateur markets (well, sort of), but the Red Sox have been able to infuse their organization with high-upside talent thanks in part to their on-field collapses in 2012 and 2014, an unforeseen circumstance that’s helped them construct a top-heavy and deep minor league pipeline.

***

It’s dangerous to give the Red Sox too much credit — after all, in Cherington’s three years as general manager, the Sox have amassed an uninspiring .488 winning percentage with a yearly payroll that’s rivaled by only two or three teams. Where Cherington and Co. deserve praise is for their willingness to take their last-place medicine in stride, instead of throwing all their chips on the table in an all-out effort to win 80-odd games every season. For their patience, the Red Sox have been rewarded with a major-league roster full of young stars and capable veterans, a healthy farm system stocked with equals parts big-league ready talent and long-term projects, and the payroll flexibility to remain a threat for any free agent or contract extension candidate (see: Porcello, Rick).

There’s a point where it all could have gone wrong, where the Red Sox could have panicked and sold off the future for post-prime short-term upgrades. There’s a point where the Red Sox could have turned into the Phillies, grasping to the winning days of yore with the wrong players. Instead, as the new-look roster played home run derby on Opening Day against a Phillies team desperately fighting off the last stages of a full-on rebuild, the Red Sox have quickly repositioned themselves as an American League power. Losing 90-plus games in two of the last three years wasn’t in Ben Cherington’s blueprint for long-term success, but the way he handled the Red Sox recent misfortunes might deserve a new chapter of its own.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com