Pomeranz started the season on the disabled list, as he suffered a forearm flexor strain in mid-March. He returned on April 20th, after a couple sub-par rehab outings in Triple-A, to pitch against the Oakland Athletics. It wasn’t a glorious return — Pomeranz lasted 3.2 innings, allowed three runs, and didn’t look like he had much of his command or his normal velocity. Since then, he’s been… well, the best description of his 2018 season is a dejected shrug. He’s been fairly unremarkable ever since, and at times his starts have been the visual equivalent of someone dragging their nails across a chalkboard. It should come as no surprise that his next start, which would’ve been today, was pushed back to Saturday against the Atlanta Braves.

Last year, I wrote about how Drew Pomeranz is an underrated pitcher, and how he was much better than people perceived him to be. He turned in a solid 2.6 WARP in 2017, and was more or less a constant in a rotation that had Chris Sale, the bad version of Rick Porcello, and the occasional good start from Doug Fister. In 2018, he’s been anything but, the far-and-away worst starter currently in the rotation, and looking solely at results thus far, the worst starter the Red Sox have, period.

You’d expect some rust coming back from a forearm injury, sure, but he’s had six starts in the majors so far, and he’s looked like a mess. The velocity loss is the most notable sign, as it’s nowhere close to where it was last year.

Apart from the changeup, which isn’t one of his main pitches, everything’s a good two to three mph slower than his norms. It’s more than a bit concerning, especially for a guy with Pomeranz’s injury record.

But he keeps on pitching, sharply diminished velocity and all, and both he and the Red Sox insist he’s health. If you’re a devout pessimist like me, this looks like a perfect, eminently frustrating storm combining a potentially scary injury and deep-seated distrust of the Red Sox medical staff, who have had a near-annual debacle concerning an injured player and their ability to play. While a forearm issue isn’t as scary as something like a shoulder, it could be a prelude to something like a UCL injury in his elbow. Thankfully, it wasn’t, but that doesn’t solve the mystery of the missing velocity or his mediocre production.

Again, both parties say he’s fit as a fiddle. But it does put the Red Sox in a little bit of a bind. As he is now, Pomeranz is a serviceable number four in any rotation, but that’s not how Pomeranz had been pitching the last two seasons, and it’s not like he’s at the far right side of the aging curve — he’s just 29 years old.  They can’t conceivably take him out of the rotation either, since that means giving either Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson starts, and even with the success they’ve had coming out of the bullpen (and starting this year), having them start for an extended amount of time is asking for trouble. I’m not talking 2011 bad, where the Red Sox ran out guys like Kyle Weiland and an awful, definitely-injured John Lackey down the stretch, but bad enough where you’d actually want this version of Drew Pomeranz to stay. A Pomeranz that resembles anything like last season’s iteration makes this rotation fearsome. The current version downgrades the rotation to simply spooky. Still really good, but not great.

Fortunately, there might be light at the end of the tunnel. Pomeranz told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that he might’ve found and potentially fixed what had been the cause of his awfulness. This isn’t the first time he’s had a dramatic uptick in production after a mechanical change — in mid-May of last year, he mentioned everything finally starting to click after a start that month, and went on to be the second-best starter in that rotation. It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that everything changes on Saturday, but, against my better judgement, it does get my hopes up.

There’s nothing that can be done until we see how he does on Saturday. If he’s good, all of this is just water under the bridge. If not, and he’s seemingly corrected that mechanical problem, the concern will start to grow. Pomeranz says he’s healthy, and the Red Sox have given him the green light to pitch. So until anything changes — for better or worse — we’ve just got to wait and see, and hope Pomeranz is better than this.

Header photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

The 2018 Red Sox have already had their fair share. I tried to do my best to nail down the ones that have been the most vital to their hot start, and the most surprising.

Rick Porcello keeping the ball in the yard

Porcello gave up a league-high 38 home runs in 2017, resulting in a ghastly 1.7 dingers per nine innings. It was a career high, and one of the driving factors behind his 4.65 ERA.

This season has been the opposite. No, like the total opposite. He hasn’t even given up a single home run yet in 25.2 innings pitched.

And he’s had plenty of chances. He’s faced the New York Yankees, a squad which boasts the vaunted Giancarlo Stanton-Aaron Judge-Gary Sanchez power trio. He held them to a pair of hits over seven scoreless innings. Then came the Angels, who lead the American League with 26 dingers.

He and Chris Sale have combined to create the league’s most dominant one-two punch thus far. As I wrote last week, Porcello’s success is the team’s X-factor. Him laying off the home run balls and piling on the strikeouts certainly helps.

Mitch Moreland thriving in limbo

When the Red Sox added J.D. Martinez, everything improved… aside from Mitch Moreland’s clarity towards his role for 2018 and beyond.

Mitch Moreland was more than serviceable as the team’s starting first baseman last season. With Martinez in the fold, a bit of a logjam has been created at the position. Martinez moved Hanley Ramirez mostly back to first, as he has rotated between designated hitter and outfield.

That leaves Moreland, who’s been in proverbial limbo, bouncing from the bench to the starting nine, and from first base to designated hitter.

If you want to put it into basketball terms, he’s the sixth-man. A late game defensive substitution at first. A starter when Martinez is in the outfield and Ramirez is DH’ing. He’s all over the place, and he’s been killing it.

He’s hitting .343 in his new role, with an OPS of 0.986. Against the Angels on Wednesday, he went 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk and three RBI.

If this Boston team has real World Series aspirations, depth will be key. If Mitch Moreland can keep contributing like he has (although hitting .355 for the rest of the season might be a tad lofty) the depth will be alright.

The team’s 5-1 record against New York and Los Angeles

Was anyone exactly surprised when the Red Sox opened the season 8-1 against the rebuilding Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins? Not exactly. Anything less might have been a disappointment.

But to follow that up with a 5-1 record against one team expected to win its division by many pundits (New York) and another team leading the AL West (Los Angeles) all while mixing in a sweep of the Orioles? That’s a real resume booster.

The Sox have done it in a number of ways. With pitching, with hitting. In blowouts and it close wins. This, more than anything, is optimistic to see as we begin to reach the point of the season where its decided whether teams are “for real” or not.

Header photo by Richard Mackson — USA TODAY Sports

Yep, it’s out there now. So when he allows five runs in three innings in his next start, you know who to come blame — me. But for a minute, let’s just imagine a world where Porcello maintains the pace he’s at now and doesn’t turn into a pumpkin.

This Red Sox rotation will be incredibly dangerous.

On paper, that’s no surprise. But we know that things don’t always happen as they do on paper. This staff features a pair of former Cy Young award winners (and Chris Sale, who is still the best of the trio).

Sale is a model of consistency. His career ERA is 2.96, and in his “worst” season, he had a 3.41 ERA. He, out of anybody on the roster, is probably the safest pick to repeat their 2017 performance.

Price is trending up (or at least he was prior to leaving Wednesday’s start with an arm injury.) His 3.38 ERA 2017 season in which he struck out 76 in 74.2 innings has transitioned nicely into a promising 2018. Injuries might be the wild card with Price, but he has the history of being elite on his side and in his favor.

And then, there’s Porcello.

He’s been practically unhittable and he’s shown some of the best control of his career. He hasn’t allowed a ball to leave the yard yet, and his ERA and FIP are objectively beautiful.

He’s had a fascinating last few years, really. After coming to Boston, he’s sandwiched a Cy Young-winning season in between a pair of high-4 ERA years. If you believe in patterns, he’s due for another strong season.

If you choose to buy into numbers as opposed to semi-arbitrary patterns, he has those working for him, too. He’s been practically unhittable (14 hits allowed in 19.2 innings) and he’s shown some of the best control of his career (17 strikeouts to a single walk). He hasn’t allowed a ball to leave the yard yet, and his ERA (1.83) and FIP (1.61) are objectively beautiful. He’s throwing lots of sliders and changeups, about as much as he had for the entirety of his career. He just shut down a struggling, albeit dangerous Yankees lineup.

Of course, it’s early. As far as I’m concerned, it’s still going to be “early” until about May. But Porcello is currently passing the eye test.

So where does that leave the Red Sox? It leaves them with at least a dominant three-headed dragon of a rotation. The back end still has some question marks, headlined by roughly 17 pitchers who could fill the back two spots (maybe not that many, but it sure feels like it).

There’s still plenty of time for Porcello to look like his 2017 self as opposed to his 2016 self. But he might be the X-factor in this team, the one that decides if Boston will boast a good rotation, or a deadly one.

Header photo by Brian Fluharty — USA TODAY Sports

The Diamond of Misfit Toys seems like a sad place to be. Granted I don’t really know, because for whatever reason baseball decided not to let media members in, but it seems like a sad place. My guess is that it is. Assuming as much, it’d behoove the Red Sox to swoop in and help one of those poor, generic-jersey-wearing souls, be emancipated from that private workout hellscape.

One of those poor souls happens to be Alex Cobb, who is someone the Red Sox should take a nice, long look at. I should note that I don’t think this will happen. Alex Cobb is in the range of good/okay/fine, but there are not many good/okay/fine pitchers left on the market, and a lot of teams need a good/okay/fine starter more than the Red Sox. Someone’s going to pay Cobb to be their number-two guy, and that obviously won’t be the Sox. BUT:

If there’s mutual interest, the Red Sox should pounce. The current free agent market is eventually going to cause a work stoppage, but right now there’s about as good a window to get talent on a team-friendly deal as there’s ever been.

Cobb’s 30, but his workload has been relatively light. Missing a year because of Tommy John is obviously a big reason for that, but since coming up in 2011, Cobb has thrown 700 innings. Comparatively, Chris Sale came up the year before Cobb and has thrown 1,324 innings. There’s life left in Cobb’s arm, and all the numbers paint the picture of a remarkably consistent mid-rotation guy.

Cobb’s biggest pluses are that he doesn’t walk people and he keeps the ball in the park. His career walk rate sits right at seven percent, with his career HR/9 sitting at a very cozy 0.84. He’s posted better than league average totals in both walk rate and HR/9 during  every season he’s stayed healthy. He doesn’t really strike people out (19.7 career strikeout rate), but you can live with a mid-rotation guy not piling up K’s when he can do the other things well. Chris Sale will strike enough people out for the both of them, do not worry.

Looking at last year’s numbers, there are some contact issues worth bringing up. After keeping his fly-ball rate under 30 percent for the entirety of his career, Cobb finally passed that threshold last year. Hitters are starting, albeit slowly, to hit the ball in the air more often against Cobb. Whether that’s a product of Cobb’s stuff, or just a reflection on the growing trendiness of hitting the ball in the air (I tend to think more the latter), it’s worth keeping an eye on. Cobb’s career fly-ball rate sits right at 26 percent, so it’s entirely possible last year was an anomaly. Still, declines always have a starting point, and it’s too soon to tell if this is Cobb’s.

Since coming up in 2011, Cobb has been at least a two-win pitcher in any full season where he’s been healthy. His only sub-two seasons were his debut year, when he only pitched 50-something innings, and his Tommy John season, when he threw 22. Let’s assume that the Red Sox sign Cobb and place him into the fourth spot in the rotation. Here’s how many wins the Red Sox fourth starters have been worth since Cobb came into the league:

2011: 0.7 (Clay Buchholz)
2012: 0.8 (Clay Buchholz)
2013: 2.2 (Felix Doubront!)
2014: 0.4 (Rubby de la Rosa)
2015: 1.6 (Rick Porcello)
2016: 1.2 (Eduardo Rodriguez)
2017: 2.0 (Rick Porcello)

Essentially, Cobb would provide the Red Sox with a luxury they’ve rarely had this decade. This is also a big reason why Cobb has probably priced himself out of the picture for the Red Sox, but you just never know in this market. Jake Arrieta is on the Phillies. Christian Yelich is on the Brewers. Weird shit happens. I’m firmly on Team You Can Never Have Too Much Quality Starting Depth, and the Red Sox are one Drew Pomeranz elbow explosion away from a real disaster. Steven Wright won’t be ready for the regular season and cannot pitch unless the weather is literally perfect. I choose to believe that Eduardo Rodriguez’s knee can stay in place when it goes six weeks without falling out. The Red Sox starting depth looks great on paper, but a closer look reveals a pretty delicate situation. If this is indeed the middle of some three-year window, this seems like the perfect time to shell out a little more to create one of the deepest rotations in baseball. The team most likely can’t wait much longer to see how their rotation shapes up, and still be able to make a move for Cobb, but I wouldn’t hate it if they did.

Photo by Rick Osentoski — USA TODAY Sports

Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.

Rotations

Red Sox:

1. Chris Sale (6.1)
2. David Price (2.1)
3. Drew Pomeranz (2.1)
4. Rick Porcello (1.2)
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)

(12.7 total WARP)

versus

Yankees:

1. Luis Severino (4.1)
2. Sonny Gray (2.5)
3. Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)
4. Jordan Montgomery (1.0)
5. CC Sabathia (0.6)

(10.6 total WARP)

Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.

Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.

The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.

Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.

But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).

Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he’s always been on the fragile side. Together they’re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.

The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.

If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).

Bullpens

Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That’s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.

Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.

Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it’ll probably be quite close.

Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.

Photo by Noah K. Murray — USA TODAY Sports

The operative words in that last sentence are “up to”. Martinez has three opt-outs in the contract: one that comes after the second year, another that comes after the third, and the final one comes after the fourth. That seems a little odd at first, but it works well with what the Red Sox are currently working with in regards to their future. That sounds a little ominous, yes, but it’s not something that we’ve been in the dark about. The Red Sox’s plans for the next few years have been obvious, but the Martinez contract cemented them. This team currently has a well-established championship window, and it won’t last long into the next decade.

So let’s start with the details on Martinez’s contract. Martinez, if he plays through the entire contract, will earn $110 million. That comes with an “if” statement because, again, Martinez has three opt outs in the contract — one after two years, and another after three. He’ll earn $23.75 million in each of the first two years, and he’ll collect the same amount again in the third year if he decides to opt in. Martinez can choose to opt out after the fourth year as well, and he’ll potentially earn $19.35 million in that year and he’ll earn the same amount in the fifth year of the contract. The first two years are the only things you’re certain to get in this contract. That and dingers. Lots of dingers.

The major thing you should notice here is that Martinez’s contract is frontloaded. Unlike David Price’s contract, in which he’d see a raise to a $30 million average annual value if he opts in after 2018, Martinez would instead drop to that 19.35 number from earlier. It’s not a huge incentive to stick around, unless, say, the team is good. Plenty of players have stuck around to try and win with a certain team for less money. It’s not unheard of.

Problem is, when you look at what the 2020 Red Sox team could look like, you’re not likely to be encouraged by what you see. Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz are set to be free agents after 2018, and David Price could opt out and join them in the market if he doesn’t want to stay. 2019 is even more of a disaster when it comes to free agency, as Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, and Rick Porcello all become free agents as well. In 2020, you lose a major part of the young core, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. depart due to free agency, along with Carson Smith. That’s a lot of key players lost. As of this writing, the Red Sox will only have one player confirmed to be on the books with a non-rookie contract in 2021, and that’s Dustin Pedroia.

So there’s a lot of incentive here for Martinez to only look out for himself, and I don’t blame him one bit for it. Players should strive to earn the most they can. It also suggests a positive feedback loop for whenever the Red Sox start to take a step down from the level of the rest of the title contenders. If the Red Sox can’t sign their young stars to a few extensions, or keep some of their pending free agents, Martinez has no reason to stay. He can opt out after 2019 if everything falls apart, and go to a team like the Los Angeles Angels that desperately needs a designated hitter that’s not decrepit. He doesn’t need to have loyalty to Boston when it comes to other opportunities, and as a player, that’s a savvy business move. Can’t hate the hustle, y’know.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future.

What that contract also announces is that the Red Sox’s championship window has some pretty clear framework. 2018 and 2019 are going to be the best possible teams the Red Sox will probably have in the near future, barring another free agent splurge. They’re no longer sitting on a hotbed of game-changing talent in the minors like they were a few years ago, and that hampers their ability to acquire players to make an impact on the major-league level, either through development or trades. It’s a bit reductionist, but this version of the Red Sox will only go as far as their extensions do, which isn’t much farther than 2020 right now. If the Red Sox do decide to dump money into the free agent market in the coming years, they might end up like the San Francisco Giants, who are trying to stay competitive in a very tough division despite having very little in the farm system. Whether that’s good or bad is all perspective at this point, since we don’t know how well the Giants will do in 2018, and staying relevant like that isn’t always a massive financial drain.

I’m not trying to be cynical here. Really. I’m not. This is what Dave Dombrowski’s been doing the last few offseasons. He’s been setting the team up for several runs deep into October since 2016 began. But even with Martinez now on the roster, the Red Sox could end up as the fourth-best team in the American League. The Yankees and Astros are juggernauts with a wealth of talent on the farm, and Cleveland’s pitching is still incredible — and they also have a lot of young talent, including the fifth-best prospect in baseball according to BP’s rankings. The window isn’t just somewhat short, but the obstacles are daunting as well. I’d gladly eat crow if it meant the Red Sox bulldozed through the other 29 teams, but realistically, it’s going to be tough, no matter what year they want to compete in.

The title window plan wasn’t unique nor a franchise secret, but I’ll admit it wasn’t exactly put out there for everyone to see. But there’s a downside to peaking like this, and it’s the inevitable drop that comes afterwards. Martinez’s contract is structured so he doesn’t have to stick around for that. His contract suggests he’s the last piece of the puzzle for the final few pushes, and then he can leave when he pleases. He doesn’t have to wait for the Red Sox to hit on high draft picks and shrewd international signings to reinforce their major league talent. That contract is one big exit strategy once the Red Sox start falling apart.

Maybe the Red Sox start handing out extensions like party favors, maybe guys like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers become legendarily good, and then maybe Martinez sticks around for the long haul. There’s definitely hope for long-term success. But for now, the title window is open with Martinez. When it shuts, though, it’ll come down hard and fast, and the Red Sox will have to find another way to get back to the top.

Photo by Joe Camporeale — USA TODAY Sports

That’s where we find Roenis Elias.

Elias was one of Boston’s roster expansion call-ups this past September, and he made his season debut on September 4 against Toronto — a game the Red Sox lost, 10-4. He faced two batters, striking out one and walking the other.

And… that’s it. That was the end of Roenis Elias’ MLB season. Two batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, one third of an inning completed. It hasn’t even been added to his Wikipedia page. So what does one third of an inning like this do for a player’s stats? Let’s take a look. Elias had…

• 27 strikouts per nine innings
• 27 walks per nine innings
• a left-on-base percentage of 100 percent
• an ERA of 0.00
• a FIP of 6.16
• a DRA of 0.00
• no batted ball data whatsoever (because none of his pitches were put in play)
• 0.0 fWAR
• 0.0 bWAR
• 0.0 WARP

Those last two numbers are particularly poignant to me, because they’re saying that the single out Elias recorded had no bearing whatsoever on the Red Sox season. Roenis Elias struck out a major league hitter, something you or I could almost certainly never accomplish, and it had the same effect on the team as him sneezing in the clubhouse would have. Maybe even less than that, if he got somebody sick as a result. That’s one of the most nihilist baseball facts I can imagine. (ed. note: Eat Arby’s.)

Of course, those 11 pitches weren’t the only ones Elias threw in 2017. He only appeared in 10 minor league games due to injury, but managed to make a stop at just about every minor league location the Red Sox have — one game for Lowell, one game for Salem, one game for Portland, and seven games for Pawtucket. It wasn’t a great season for him in most regards; his strikeouts were down, he walked too many batters, and he gave up 11 home runs in 42.2 minor league innings. Elias has been a decent major league contributor in the past and was good, if unremarkable, in Pawtucket last year, so his true talent level when healthy is likely above what we saw from him this season.

He got that one fleeting taste of Major League Baseball, though, and at least we got some fun facts out of it.

What Went Right:

Roenis Elias struck out 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What Went Wrong:

Roenis Elias walked 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What To Expect:

Honestly? Roenis Elias could actually be interesting this season. For real!

The Boston Globe has reported that he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training, and if he can stay healthy, he offers some mildly intriguing depth. He threw 163.2 decent innings for the Mariners in 2014 and 115.1 more the following year, so we know he can be stretched out as a starter. With that in mind, there’s room for him to contribute in a long relief or spot starter role this season. Plus, he’s a lefty.

(This is the most recent Elias highlight in the majors — over 18 months ago.)

The back end of the Red Sox rotation has a decent few options, but just as many questions. The top four is written in stone: Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello. The fifth spot is still in question, however. Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the favorite, but he’s struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career. After him, we’re looking at Steven Wright, whose domestic assault case is still under investigation by the MLB and could result in disciplinary action. Keeping in mind that even the best pitching rotations never stay healthy across a full MLB season, the value in a guy who can provide some decent innings in a pinch becomes more apparent.

Elias’ biggest competition this spring is probably someone like 27-year-old Brian Johnson, who is also getting a bullpen audition this Spring Training. You could probably call Johnson a post-hype prospect, at least if you define “hype” as “Well, his floor looks pretty high!” I don’t mind him, but it’s also not the toughest bar for Elias to clear, considering he’s a player with a few hundred decent major league innings under his belt. He had a great Winter League showing this offseason, now he needs to stay healthy and carry that momentum into the spring.

And hey, repeating that 50 percent MLB strikeout rate from 2017 couldn’t hurt, either.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

That’s your introduction to Steven Wright’s last season! Yet, despite the arrest, despite the surgery, despite the lousy performance last season, there is a very real chance that Steven Wright will be the Red Sox number five starting pitcher in the 2018 season. Is that good? Is that bad? Should it even be happening?

What Went Wright

(sorry) (not sorry)

To find something that went right for Wright, you have to skip last season. Go back to 2016 when Wright threw 156 innings for the Red Sox with an ERA of 3.33. He was quite good then! And especially in the first half when he made the All-Star team. Coming in to the 2017 season Wright was expected to hold down a rotation spot… aaaaaand that concludes everything that went right for Steven Wright in 2017!

[hold for applause]

Fine. Whatever. See if I come to your office and clap for you when you finish that memo.

What Went Wrong

Wright lasted five starts into the season before getting shut down with discomfort in his left knee. It was initially thought to be a short-term injury, and he was put on the 10-day disabled list, but that eventually morphed into the 60-day DL and season-ending knee surgery. That was it. That was the end of Wright’s season. Five starts. Five lousy starts. Five crappy, lousy starts.

It’s difficult to take much away from Wright’s work in 2017. He was bad (the aforementioned 8.25 ERA), but he had also been bothered by his knee since spring training. Perhaps in a world where his knee was healthy he would have pitched more effectively. Perhaps in a world where his knee was healthy we’d all be eating muscle-building jelly-beans in a field with unicorns. When you look at it that way it’s really a shame he hurt is knee, right? In any case, Wright’s season was essentially a washout.

What To Expect

This is where things get interesting. The Red Sox already have Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello. They also have Eduardo Rodriguez and David Price, two pitchers who might be healthy and good, might be healthy and not good, or might not be healthy at all. In a perfect Red Sox season (cough2013cough), Wright wouldn’t touch the mound in the first inning all year, except maybe by accident while walking out to the bullpen before the game started. Except we all know that perfect seasons come along extremely infrequently — unless you’re the Yankees where 24-year-olds who were crap in Triple-A are MVP candidates and 3,000 pound 37-year-old pitchers with chronic knee problems are borderline Cy Young candidates. My point: it’s likely the Red Sox will need Wright on the mound as a starter at some point.

Given the injuries the 2018 Red Sox starting staff has already suffered — and we’re still about two months from spring training — 150 or so innings of 3.50 ERA ball would be a godsend to this team. It doesn’t sound wholly out of the realm of possibility for Wright to replicate something in that vicinity in 2018, either. He’s clearly got it in him. His 2016 season wasn’t full of BABIP luck or a ridiculously lucky home run rate or anything like that. Wright pitched fine and the results were fine. He could absolutely do that again in 2018, and the Red Sox would be all the better for it.

But knuckleball pitchers are like the weather. We study it and study it, and we’d like to think we can predict with some accuracy what will happen. Then we look outside on a day we thought would be 70 degrees and sunny and we find it’s snowing. Despite the awful 2017 season and the injury, Wright might well be a huge asset to the 2018 Red Sox. He could be the best sixth starter in the league, and a legitimate fireman who can give you two or three innings from the bullpen when the rest of the rotation is healthy and the pen needs a breather. Or he could be bad and get injured for the third season in a row. Given the odd proclivities of the knuckleball, and the strange up-and-down that Wright has seen in just a few years time, neither scenario playing out should be surprising. Perhaps a more modest goal, like keeping his ERA below his innings pitched totals, should be set.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports