Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

I’m writing about Noe Ramirez here, I promise. But first, some fun facts about the ragtag band of journeymen I’ve covered so far. In 2017, players that have been recapped by your’s truly…

• played in 23 total games
• pitched 13.1 innings
• surrendered 14 earned runs
• scored seven runs
• allowed three home runs
• hit zero home runs
• struck out eight batters
• were struck out 14 times
• allowed a batting average of .350
• batted .242
• posted a combined WAR of 0.1

I believe it is actually impossible to draw up a four-man group of players on this roster who had less of an overall impact on the franchise than these four. Three of the four are no longer with the organization, after all, and the only one that remains (Elias) is far from guaranteed to make the majors in 2018. The only other pitchers to pitch fewer innings than Kendrick — who paced this group with a whopping 8.2 innings pitched — were Carson Smith (who will contribute this year), Kyle Martin (who is still here, at least as minor league filler), and Mitch Moreland (the starting first baseman). Three hitters recorded fewer plate appearances than Davis: Steve Selsky (who was pretty bad but is still around), Blake Swihart (a post-hype sleeper), and Chase d’Arnaud (who needed one plate appearance to top Davis in fWAR). It’s the perfect storm of both barely playing and playing terribly.

How do you write 35 words for every plate appearance Rajai Davis made this season? How do you make an entire article out of Roenis Elias’ two batters faced? In some ways, these are the best Roster Recaps — it’s like writing with the difficulty set to Very Hard. I have a sense of investment in these guys now; it’s about finding value in the little things. They might be bad at baseball, but they’re great at being my baseball sons.

Or something. I don’t know, it’s 23 games, man!

Let’s talk about Noe Ramirez, or something.

What Went Right:

Not much. Ramirez’s best performance of the season came after being claimed by the Angels, where he posted a 2.16 ERA and struck out 32% of the batters he faced… in 8.1 innings pitched. As a minor leaguer, Ramirez was fine; a 3.51 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings is pretty okay, but it’s nothing spectacular. I guess it sucks a little bit to lose a very cheap reliever with a good minor league track record under team control through 2023, but there was really nothing about Noe Ramirez’s 2017 that the Red Sox will miss.

What Went Wrong:

The great irony of me recapping Noe Ramirez is that Ramirez was waived in August to make room for one of my previous recaps: Roenis Elias. When you’re waived for the guy who faced two major league batters all season, you probably had a rough year.

Ramirez is basically just a Quad-A reliever, which is probably the least valuable kind of Quad-A player. He pitched hundreds of innings for Boston’s farm system and had a fairly strong track record, but any time he came up to the big show, he got shelled. Interestingly, each of his three major league stints (2015, 2016, and 2017) lasted exactly 13 innings. This was certainly the best one, but it still came with a FIP north of 4.00. It’s a shame that a long-time organizational guy like Ramirez didn’t stick with the major league squad, but considering he’s now 28 years old,  it’s not much of a loss.

What to Expect:

Well, Noe Ramirez is an Angel now, so for the Red Sox… nothing. Maybe he finally sticks around in Los Angeles and contributes in some kind of middle relief role, but more likely, I’d expect 60 innings in Triple-A with a respectable ERA and some strikeouts. Not great, not terrible, just fine. That should be the subtitle for all these recaps, honestly.

Photo by Kelley L Cox — USA TODAY Sports

That’s where we find Roenis Elias.

Elias was one of Boston’s roster expansion call-ups this past September, and he made his season debut on September 4 against Toronto — a game the Red Sox lost, 10-4. He faced two batters, striking out one and walking the other.

And… that’s it. That was the end of Roenis Elias’ MLB season. Two batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, one third of an inning completed. It hasn’t even been added to his Wikipedia page. So what does one third of an inning like this do for a player’s stats? Let’s take a look. Elias had…

• 27 strikouts per nine innings
• 27 walks per nine innings
• a left-on-base percentage of 100 percent
• an ERA of 0.00
• a FIP of 6.16
• a DRA of 0.00
• no batted ball data whatsoever (because none of his pitches were put in play)
• 0.0 fWAR
• 0.0 bWAR
• 0.0 WARP

Those last two numbers are particularly poignant to me, because they’re saying that the single out Elias recorded had no bearing whatsoever on the Red Sox season. Roenis Elias struck out a major league hitter, something you or I could almost certainly never accomplish, and it had the same effect on the team as him sneezing in the clubhouse would have. Maybe even less than that, if he got somebody sick as a result. That’s one of the most nihilist baseball facts I can imagine. (ed. note: Eat Arby’s.)

Of course, those 11 pitches weren’t the only ones Elias threw in 2017. He only appeared in 10 minor league games due to injury, but managed to make a stop at just about every minor league location the Red Sox have — one game for Lowell, one game for Salem, one game for Portland, and seven games for Pawtucket. It wasn’t a great season for him in most regards; his strikeouts were down, he walked too many batters, and he gave up 11 home runs in 42.2 minor league innings. Elias has been a decent major league contributor in the past and was good, if unremarkable, in Pawtucket last year, so his true talent level when healthy is likely above what we saw from him this season.

He got that one fleeting taste of Major League Baseball, though, and at least we got some fun facts out of it.

What Went Right:

Roenis Elias struck out 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What Went Wrong:

Roenis Elias walked 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.

What To Expect:

Honestly? Roenis Elias could actually be interesting this season. For real!

The Boston Globe has reported that he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training, and if he can stay healthy, he offers some mildly intriguing depth. He threw 163.2 decent innings for the Mariners in 2014 and 115.1 more the following year, so we know he can be stretched out as a starter. With that in mind, there’s room for him to contribute in a long relief or spot starter role this season. Plus, he’s a lefty.

(This is the most recent Elias highlight in the majors — over 18 months ago.)

The back end of the Red Sox rotation has a decent few options, but just as many questions. The top four is written in stone: Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello. The fifth spot is still in question, however. Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the favorite, but he’s struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career. After him, we’re looking at Steven Wright, whose domestic assault case is still under investigation by the MLB and could result in disciplinary action. Keeping in mind that even the best pitching rotations never stay healthy across a full MLB season, the value in a guy who can provide some decent innings in a pinch becomes more apparent.

Elias’ biggest competition this spring is probably someone like 27-year-old Brian Johnson, who is also getting a bullpen audition this Spring Training. You could probably call Johnson a post-hype prospect, at least if you define “hype” as “Well, his floor looks pretty high!” I don’t mind him, but it’s also not the toughest bar for Elias to clear, considering he’s a player with a few hundred decent major league innings under his belt. He had a great Winter League showing this offseason, now he needs to stay healthy and carry that momentum into the spring.

And hey, repeating that 50 percent MLB strikeout rate from 2017 couldn’t hurt, either.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Despite a minor medical miracle taking place, the biggest ripple effect the news had on the team was the sudden spotlight placed on its starting pitching depth. There was the indictment of Dave Dombrowski because he traded Clay Buchholz for pennies on the dollar. That was followed by speculation about what it would take to trade for another ace, because apparently that’s the Red Sox’s only move now. Those zesty takes were followed, however, by the most daunting exercise of all: a look at the team’s internal options. The Red Sox have about a half dozen options to turn to in case of a serious injury, and only one of them inspires one ounce of confidence. Quantity certainly doesn’t assure quality, which is ultimately a pickle that the Red Sox know they’re one sore elbow from having to address. From the lot of current Triple-A guys, here’s one (now incredibly relieved that this is a hypothetical exercise) fan’s guess at who would be best option to turn to.

The (hopefully, presuming I cherry-pick the right stats to show) Good

Eduardo Rodriguez/Steven Wright

This one comes with a bit of a caveat, because it’s more likely than not that they both make a significant number of starts this season even with Price being presumably healthy. It’s still too early to tell how the Red Sox are going to handle dealing with the fact that they have two spots for three starters; it seems that Rodriguez is ahead of both Wright and Pomeranz when it comes to health, but Rodriguez is also the only one of the three with options left. There’s obviously a desire for patience and precaution when it comes to Rodriguez, but there’s also no doubt that the Red Sox would prefer to have a lefty who’s shown flashes of being a front-line starter when healthy pitch more frequently than two arms who, while dependable, have significantly lower ceilings (All-Star appearances aside).

In the long run, Wright just feels like the odd man out, which is entirely unfair. Rodriguez is never going to be a spot-starter, and the team will ride with Pomeranz a little longer – whether they want to or not – based on what they saw from him in San Diego and what they gave up to get him. That being said, there are much worse things than having an All-Star caliber knuckleballer as the backup option. Wright is the most versatile of the bunch, which ironically means he’s the most likely to get sent to the bullpen. Baseball sucks sometimes.

The (probably, but maybe not?) Bad

Kyle Kendrick

He gets placed in this tier simply because he’s logged a bunch of major league innings over his career and would presumably limit the damage a tad more effectively than anyone who follows. There’s not a lot that stands out when you look at his numbers, as he’s been roughly a replacement-level pitcher since he broke through with the Phillies in 2007. If there’s something positive to be said about Kendrick, it’s that he’s dependable – only once in his career has he pitched fewer than 100 innings (2009). He doesn’t strike people out (career 12.7 K%) and his walk numbers (career 6.6 BB% and 2.59 BB/9) are neither fantastic nor alarming. He has a tendency to give up homers (career 1.24 HR/9 and 12% HR/FB), although playing in Colorado last season surely played into the career-worst performance he put up in those categories last season. He’s a prime candidate for some small bounce-back this season, but even a positive regression to career norms isn’t thrilling anyone.

Brian Johnson

I’m aware that having Johnson this high up could be seen as a stretch and I’ve admittedly always been higher on him than is probably accurate, but hear me out: when Johnson isn’t hurt, the numbers say he could be a useful insurance policy. Staying healthy has always been his biggest battle, but it wasn’t that long ago when he was putting up 118 innings of impressive baseball (1.75 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 7.55 K/9 in 2014) in Double-A. Take this for what it’s worth, but the reports about Johnson from camp so far have been overwhelmingly positive. David Price he is not, but it only gets worse from here, so for now, a healthy Johnson should – but probably won’t – get a crack at the majors before any of his Pawtucket teammates.

Hector Velazquez

For the time being, Velazquez represents the least reliable yet most intriguing option in this tier. He’s only pitched in Mexico, and his numbers, barring last season, are incredibly average. To his credit, he put up a 2.79 FIP while striking out just over eight batters per nine innings and walking a hair above one (!) batter per nine as well. Those are good numbers, and numbers that the Red Sox would be thrilled with from a depth/bullpen option. He throws hard, but so did Daniel Bard (is that comparison less sad if it rhymes?). Velazquez represents an intriguing option who’s more than likely going to end up spending most of the season in the minors with an outside shot of helping the bullpen at some point later in the summer.

The Ugly

Roenis Elias/Henry Owens

I’ll group these two together because you’re not any more interested in reading separate entries for these guys than I am writing them. It’s sad that we’ve arrived here, considering there was, at one point, pretty substantial (albeit cautious) optimism for both of these guys not too long ago. At this point in both of their careers, they simply just don’t have the command to be successful or even viable major league options. Owen’s well-documented struggles have helped distract from the slightly-less-horrible-but-still-concerning stats that Elias has been putting up under essentially the same workload. While a look at their numbers suggests that they’re more similar than not, previous call-ups over the last season or two suggest that the team still views Owens as the preferred option. Whether that makes sense or not – Elias is basically Owens with one fewer walk per nine innings – is an argument for another time. Still – either one of them getting substantial innings on the major league roster would indicate that something went very, very wrong. If the Red Sox are truly as all-in as their last two offseason’s worth of moves have indicated, there’s no way they seriously roll the dice with either Elias or Owens.

Photo by Kamil Krazynski/USA Today Sports Images 

There’s a certain string of emotions when watching sports that everyone has experienced. It’s the general “sinking stone” feeling. Your team gets out to a lead, and sure, it’s a bit shaky. You convince yourself that it’ll be okay, that the feeling is just fleeting. As if some deity heard you, everything goes bad the moment you do that. Your heart drops into your foot. It’s pure, unadulterated carnage, but you can’t stop watching. You’ve already accepted defeat and the game’s not even halfway over. Your eyes glaze over and you wish for it to end. (Eat at Arby’s.)

The Red Sox used newly-acquired Roenis Elias as a starter for one game. Go back to that last paragraph, start from “Your heart drops…”, and re-read it from there. You have now encapsulated that one start. Congratulations!

What Went Right In 2016

Literally nothing. He is a cautionary tale in what happens when you need your tenth-best starter to pitch.

Okay, maybe not nothing, but if I’m looking for a silver lining here, he at least resembled a starting pitcher in Pawtucket. Compared to the next segment, that’s pretty okay.

What Went Wrong In 2016

From the start, it was bad.

He started three games in Spring Training and turned in one decent start. He was optioned to Triple-A at the end of March, as he had no shot to make the rotation at that point. The Red Sox called him up for some bullpen help on April 22nd. The next day, the Houston Astros scored three runs off of him over 1.2 innings. Elias was sent down the day afterwards to make room for Henry Owens. Yeah. That was a thing.

Elias was then called up on June 17th to make that one fateful start against his former team, the Seattle Mariners. Here’s how Franklin Gutierrez greeted him:

Park attendants are still looking for that second home run ball. As you can expect, he was sent back down again soon after.

Third time wasn’t really the charm for Elias, as the next time he was called up, he allowed a run over two innings while facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not as bad as his last two outings, but still ineffective. Nine batters faced, four hits, no strikeouts, no walks. Sigh.

The Red Sox opted to go with Owens and even Sean O’Sullivan as their spot starter over Elias several times in 2016. Combine that with Carson Smith needing Tommy John surgery, and you’ve got a Wade Miley trade that did very little for either team in 2016. Not great, Bob!

What To Expect in 2017

He’s not this bad. Probably. Elias has done better in the majors before and he’s flashed limited strikeout potential. His ceiling isn’t high, but the most you can expect from him is a spot-start or two and some long relief appearances when the bullpen’s gassed. He’ll first have to be a better pitcher than Owens or even O’Sullivan if he wants to get a decent amount of innings, and if we’re being fair here, that bar isn’t set particularly high. If he can’t, he’s only a passable LOOGY that’s stuck behind Robby Scott. It’s a hard-knock life for starting pitcher depth.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Boston’s pen currently features seven relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Robbie Ross, Heath Hembree, Tommy Layne and Matt Barnes. We’ll organize them into three tiers. The top tier includes the first three guys on the list. Say what you will about Kimbrel’s increased home run and walk rate, he’s still an elite option. Koji is visibly aging but for now he’s in this class. Beyond the thought of Tazawa facing anyone who has ever been a part of the Blue Jays organization, he’s a rock in Boston’s pen.

Then there’s the next group. That’s Ross and Hembree. Ross has been susceptible to the home run and he still walks more than you’d like, but he’s been effective. Hembree has been, if anything, even better, but he’s such a fly-ball pitcher that the fear of homers raining from the sky is still there. All in all though, two effective if not elite relievers.

Then there’s the back end of Layne and Barnes. Some might put Barnes in the middle tier, but I don’t because he simply walks too many guys. He’s not immune to homers either, though it’s not a huge problem for him. Mostly he’s a competent reliever, but not an option for the back end of pen because he simply doesn’t throw enough quality strikes or, really, enough strikes. Layne is, I’m sure a nice fellow, but he’s really just a guy. The walks are high, the strikeouts league average or a touch below from the pen, and he doesn’t dominate lefties like you’d think a guy with his arm angle would.

When looking to upgrade the pen, it’s this last tier of guys that I’d look to improve upon. You never like to lose talent for nothing, but this team is all in on winning this season and frankly Layne isn’t doing much to help. Barnes could someday move into the second tier if his command improves, but stashing him back in Pawtucket shouldn’t be any kind of impediment to improving the bullpen in Boston right now.

There are two groups from where to draw that improvement. The first is starting pitchers who have flamed out at the major league level. That would be Roenis Elias and Joe Kelly. Kelly is currently hurt, and his groin injury is coming along slowly. If he returns this season, it should be as a reliever in Pawtucket. See if his stuff plays up in a bullpen role and go from there. In the meantime, Roenis Elias represents an intriguing replacement for Tommy Layne, assuming the team needs a lefty-on-lefty only reliever. Elias has been successful against left handers in his career, holding them to a .658 OPS with a 2.67 K/BB ratio. He has some speed on his fastball and deception from the left side, both of which could play up a bit in the pen. It must be acknowledged that taking a starter and making him a situational lefty isn’t exactly squeezing out all the marrow out of the bone, but in this season of Going All In, maybe it merits a shot.

In his last 10 appearances, Light has thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs.

The second group is composed of minor league relievers Pat Light and Kyle Martin. Light is likely the better known of the two, having already made his major league debut earlier this season. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and he’s reported to have reached 100 mph at times. He keeps hitters off that heat with a splitter and slider. The overall package can be downright dominating when the command is there, and after an initial bump in the road at Pawtucket after his call up, Light has been dominant. In his last 10 appearances he’s thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs. Overall he has 32 strikeouts and 13 walks in 26.1 innings in Triple-A and all with only one homer allowed. He’s spent time in Triple-A and made an appearance in Boston, so it’s unlikely the 25-year-old would be wowed by the lights (sorry not sorry). (Editor’s note: it is indeed Light who got the call to the majors to replace Eduardo Rodriguez on the roster.)

Pat Light isn’t the only one in Triple-A to pitch well out of the pen. Kyle Martin, the Red Sox 9th round pick in 2013 out of Texas A&M University has been putting up numbers that surpass Light’s. His strikeouts are up (11.3 K/9), his walks down (2.3. BB/9), and his ground ball tendencies help keep the homers down as well with just one given up in 35 innings so far this season. Martin does carry a 4.11 ERA, but his K and BB numbers are quite good and he keeps the ball in the park well so his potential as a fifth or sixth bullpen arm isn’t diminished.

None of these guys are the next Kimbrel, but deployed properly they can be upgrades on the current cast. Send Barnes down and see what Light brings you. See if Elias can help get lefties out better than Layne has been able to, or don’t, just bring up Martin instead. There are, believe it or not, options. And options are good, especially if they represent hope and if they don’t cost the team top prospects like Rafael Devers or Anderson Espinoza. If Andrew Miller is available at reasonable cost, consider making the move, but short of that, there are enough problems elsewhere on this roster that it makes sense to use the team’s resources on a position with fewer internal solutions, which, at least for now, rules out the bullpen.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

To few people’s surprise, they’ve announced that Roenis Elias will be that replacement.

This is undoubtedly good news for Elias, but him winning this spot is more faint praise than anything else. I mean, his competition was Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz (who has six walks and three strikeouts in 6.1 innings out of the bullpen) and Henry Owens. However, as underwhelming as his current competition is, Elias has proven to be as solid as he is unspectacular as a starter in his relatively short career.

Prior to getting the call to Boston, the now-27-year-old spent two years in Seattle serving as something close to a full-time starter. To wit, 49 of his 51 appearances came as a starter, including all 29 of his appearances in 2014. His performance was nothing to write home about — something that should be obvious considering he was the secondary piece in the Wade Miley deal — but he was a perfectly acceptable back-end hurler. In both these seasons, he pitched to adjusted ERA’s just slightly below the league average with peripherals to match that kind of performance.

Elias has proven to be as solid as he is unspectacular as a starter in his relatively short career.

The underwhelming existence that is Roenis Elias: Starting pitcher doesn’t just end with the numbers, either. In order to produce these slightly below-average numbers, he relies on a fastball/curveball/changeup mix. If you were told to dream up the most boring starting pitcher repertoire, I’d be willing to bet that’s the mix you’d pick.

This isn’t meant to be an insult, either, because it led to solid strikeout numbers at least. Unfortunately, the pitch he worked off most of the time — his fastball — is also his worst pitch. The heater sits in the low-to-mid nineties, but doesn’t induce whiffs or ground balls. At the same time, a higher rate of line drives are hit off the pitch than any of his others. Again, this isn’t a particularly uncommon occurrence for someone of Elias’ caliber, but it helps paint the picture of who he is.

To his credit, his secondaries have been much more effective over his career. Both pitches boast whiff-per-swing rates over 32 percent (per Brooks Baseball) and they both induce ground balls on over half of balls put in play against them. These two pitches are the reason he’s able to maintain a strikeout rate slightly above the league-average starter, coming in slightly under eight K’s per nine innings.

Guys with this kind of strikeout rate can certainly excel at the highest level, but they need at least plus command. Elias…well, Elias doesn’t even have average command. He’s had a tremendous amount of trouble with control over his career, walking roughly a full batter per nine innings more than the league-average starter. The issue is quite simple: He can’t hit the strike zone. He’s had little problem drawing swings on pitches out of the zone — though he’s not elite in this area, either — but that can’t outweigh zone rate. While the middle of the pack in zone rate is typically around 48-to-49 percent, Elias is all the way down at 45 percent over his career.

It’s not just the walks, either, as he’s had plenty of problems with the long ball. Despite pitching in Safeco Park and other pitcher-friendly ballparks out west, he’s allowed exactly one home run per nine innings over his career. That’s a rate that could be expected to rise as he shifts to the American League East, especially if he can’t find a way to keep the ball further down in the zone. For whatever it’s worth, that hasn’t been the case in Triple-A given his 0.9 HR/9 rate with Pawtucket.

So, he’s solid with strikeouts, just average with home runs despite pitching in pitcher-friendly environments and bad with walks. All of this mediocrity leads me to two possibly contradictory points. The first is that Elias is fine, assuming it’s roughly what the Red Sox can expect moving forward. If he can go about five innings per start and allow three or four runs more often than not, the Red Sox can live with that. The most important thing for Elias — and the rest of Boston’s pitchers — is avoiding blow-up outings. We know Buchholz and Kelly haven’t been able to do that, and it takes Boston’s biggest asset — it’s high-powered offense — out of the game too early. Of course, blow-up is a vague term, but if we define it as allowing five runs or more (an admittedly crude and arbitrary definition) Elias’ history is encouraging.

Just 18 percent of his career starts fit this definition.

The other side of this coin is that such subpar performance can’t be acceptable for the rest of the season. Elias’ mediocre pitching is fine for a team trying to make it through to the trade deadline, but contending teams in August and September need to do better than that. This is particularly true for a rotation that includes Steven Wright, who always seems like a risk to turn back into a pumpkin, Rick Porcello, who has looked more like 2015 Porcello lately, and Eduardo Rodriguez who hasn’t lived up to his potential thus far this year.

Elias’ mediocre pitching is fine for a team trying to make it through to the trade deadline, but contending teams in August and September need to do better than that.

Whether they find that replacement internally (unlikely) or externally (very likely), Elias probably can’t be a starter for a team in a tight playoff race, barring injuries. Again, this is nothing against him, because there is value to having players like Elias on the roster, but this Red Sox team will need better eventually.

Finding a better starter would also allow Elias to be unleashed in the bullpen, where he could provide some real value. There’s not a ton of data with him pitching in short stints, but the hope would be that his stuff plays up enough for his ability to garner strikeouts to mask his command issues. Even if it doesn’t, he’s had plenty of success against left-handed hitters over his career. For instance, he allowed a .231 TAv against lefties in 2015 compared to a .282 mark against righties. For a Red Sox team relying on Tommy Layne and Robbie Ross as the left-handed relief options right now, Elias would be a welcome change.

That’s looking too far down the road, though. Elias is going to take the hill for his first start in a Red Sox uniform on Friday, and it likely won’t be his last based on his competition. He’s not going to be anyone’s favorite pitcher, but he’ll be fine for now. The strikeouts will keep him in games, but the command will keep him from dominating.

As with just about every player, it all comes down to expectations. If you just hope for Elias to keep the team in games, history shows he can serve that role. Just don’t look for anything more.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Roenis Elias (LHP) and Bryce Brentz (OF)

Roenis Elias was the second player the Red Sox acquired in the Wade Miley-Carson Smith trade with the Mariners this winter. Elias seemed to fit in among the Steven Wright, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson morass of a fifth spot in the rotation. But then his 10.45 ERA in the spring ensured he would start the year at Pawtucket, and unfortunately things have gotten only slightly better. Through his first 25 innings this season he had a 7.20 RA9 (4.83 FIP). Walking 19 batters while striking out 20 will do that to you. Clearly things have been rough for Elias, and just as his chances of getting another shot in the big leagues appeared to be slipping away, he went out and was pretty dominant in his most recent start. Over 7.2 innings (his longest of the season) he allowed only two runs (both solo home runs), walked nobody (!) and struck out 13 (!). According to a report from Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, Pawtucket pitching coach Bob Kipper noticed a rhythm issue in Elias’ delivery and worked with him to implement a freer approach with how he delivered the ball. Obviously, the early results from this adjustment are positive. If it is truly the change needed to get Elias back on track, maintaining consistency with the adjusted delivery will be crucial. If Elias is unstuck and can return to a moderate level of effectiveness, he provides the Red Sox an option other than Henry Owens to fill an open rotation spot.

Bryce Brentz suffered an oblique strain during Spring Training that kept him out of game action for the first two weeks of the season. Then once he got into the lineup it took some time to get things going. He spent the first part of the season at Double-A Portland, where he accumulated 48 plate appearances and posted a .200/.333/.325 line with two doubles and one home run. That is not a great line, but he was moved back up to Pawtucket and with his promotion came a bump in his offensive production. Over his 48 PA with the PawSox he has posted a .295/.354/.364 line, with three doubles but no home runs. While his batting average has seen the largest jump, largely a result of a correspondingly large rise in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his power is still lacking. His .068 isolated power this season at Pawtucket, will, if it continues, be the lowest mark of his career (among stints with at least 25 PA). Brentz is projected for considerable power, so this lack of it in the early going is slightly concerning. But it is only 48 PA, so there is not yet any real reason for alarm.

Brentz’s path to the big leagues appears murky. His hit tool is likely his ticket upward, but he needs to hit more than he has this year and did last year (.264 TAv), or at least get back to his lefty-mashing ways of 2014 when he posted a 1.039 OPS against lefties (.698 OPS against righties) if he is going to get called up. His defense is fine, but not outstanding to the point of needing to have him roam the Fenway lawn. According to his fielding runs above average number, which should be interpreted cautiously, he was an above average outfielder last year, but is back below average this year. Regardless, with a defender like Rusney Castillo, a utility guy like Brock Holt, and infielders like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart all ahead of Brentz on the outfield depth chart, Brentz’s chances to get back to the big leagues with Boston appear grim.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF)

When we last checked on Rusney Castillo, he was struggling at the plate, especially in the power department. That problem has not changed. He has nine hits over the last two weeks – all but one of which are singles – and has walked and struck out twice. Put it all together and his season line now sits at an unimpressive .256/.313/.308. While many (including me) thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was the all-glove, no-bat outfielder in the Red Sox system, at least Bradley Jr. hit at Pawtucket. The same cannot be said for Castillo. This is probably the last time I provide this sort of quick update on him.

Double-A Portland: Aaron Wilkerson (RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

In 2015, the relatively unheralded Aaron Wilkerson moved from Low-A to High-A to Double-A over the course of the season. In his 119.2 innings between Salem (79.0) and Portland (40.2), Wilkerson posted a remarkable 3.08 RA9, with a 2.13 FIP that suggested he was even better. This year he has picked up where he left off, dominating opponents and posting scoreless innings. To date, he has made seven starts for the Sea Dogs, five of which have been scoreless and only one was a clunker (3.1 innings, six runs, eight hits, three walks, four strikeouts). All told, in his 39.1 innings for the Sea Dogs he has struck out 46 batters while walking 12. His last time out, against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (the Blue Jays’ affiliate), he had arguably his best start of the season, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After reading about Wilkerson’s domination, it seems as though he is due for a promotion to Triple-A. Well, he had an opportunity earlier this season to start a game for Pawtucket and it did not go too well (4.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, one home run, three walks, five strikeouts). He was sent back to Portland after the outing and his first start back was the clunker I mentioned above; certainly an interesting week for Mr. Wilkerson. In any case, if he continues to impress at Double-A the way he has so far he will get another chance at the next level.

Two weeks ago I campaigned for Andrew Benintendi to get promoted to Portland so that I could watch him play. The promotion came too late for me to see him, but it came nevertheless. He has now played four games for the Sea Dogs and is still adjusting to the higher level. He has been held hitless, a feat that seemed unthinkable at High-A, in three of his four games and has struck out in five of his 16 PA. To put that in some perspective, he struck out just nine times in his 155 PA with Salem this year. Benintendi has done nothing but hit at an advanced level at each stop in his young career, so it seems likely that he will get back to raking soon.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh pick of the 2013 first-year player draft. Since then Ball has struggled to live up to his draft status in ways that other Red Sox seventh-overall picks have (see Benintendi, Andrew). At each of his three stops in the Red Sox system, Ball has posted an ERA over 4.50 with corresponding fielding independent numbers that suggest he has been that bad. Thus far in 2016, Ball has been effective in limiting runs from scoring (1.96 RA9), but his 4.20 FIP portends a return to previous runs allowed marks, as do his career low .203 BABIP and career high 84.8% strand rate. Basically, he has been navigating trouble by having opponents hit it where they are, which probably won’t last.

Generally, Ball’s major issue is walking batters. In 23.0 innings this year he has allowed nine walks (3.51 BB/9). Last year it was even worse, as he allowed 60 walks in his 129.1 innings pitched for Salem (4.18 BB/9). He has to reduce his walk totals if he is going to succeed and move up in the system. In his most recent outing, Ball kept the opponents, Kansas City’s High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, off the scoreboard, scattered five hits, and only walked two batters over a career high seven innings. What’s more is that he struck out six batters, the third highest total in his young career. Ideally this start is an indication he is headed in the right direction, but it is one start and the Blue Rocks are the weakest offensive team in the Carolina League this year.

Updates on Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers:

Yoan Moncada, like his old teammate Benintendi, is likely to get a promotion soon. He is still dominating pitchers at his level to the tune of a .324/.454/.510 line, and has 29 stolen bases in 35 tries.

Just when it seemed Rafael Devers was coming out of his early season struggles, he had another rough couple of weeks going .182/.234/.205 over his most recent 47 PA. His season line is currently 39 percent worse than average, so he has a lot of work to do if he is going to join his fellow Big Three teammates in Portland.

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

The Greenville Drive team’s offense has been great in the early going this season, and that is despite top-prospect Luis Alexander Basabe struggling to consistently produce. Basabe was signed by the Red Sox, along with his brother Luis Alejandro Basabe, in 2012. Luis Alexander spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in rookie ball, before getting assigned to Lowell last year for his age-18 season. At each level he has produced solid offensive numbers, but has had difficulty thus far at Low-A. His season line is currently .213/.265/.418, which is a bit of a strange line that comes as a result of half of his 26 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, four triples, four home runs). Regardless, a .213 batting average is ugly, and mixing it with a lack of walks is also concerning. He clearly needs to develop better plate discipline, work to earn more walks and focus on attacking pitches in the strike zone. His combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and below-typical BABIP (.282) could suggest that the low batting average comes as a result of him often making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which tend to have poorer outcomes. Without access to his swing and batted ball data (i.e., O-Swing%, O-Contact%, exit velocity) I cannot address this hypothesis directly, but the poor plate discipline numbers point to it being plausible. Regardless, given his age, Basabe will spend at least this season with the Drive, so he will have plenty of time and many opportunities to develop into a more well-rounded hitter.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Brian Johnson has been rated among the Red Sox‘s top 10 prospects for the last couple of seasons. On most of this year’s lists the 25-year-old lefty occupies the sixth or seventh slot. Johnson is a member of the group of homegrown, young pitchers – with Henry Owens and Matt Barnes – who are expected to provide the pitching depth the Red Sox will certainly need as they battle for AL East crown in 2016.

Johnson will compete for a spot in the big league rotation this Spring, but it is more than likely that he starts the year in Pawtucket. In some ways, he’s ready for a shot in the majors, but there is simply no room for him in Boston right now. The rough news for Johnson is that he is not likely to be the next man up if an opening should emerge in the big league rotation. Owens, Roenis Elias, and typically forgotten man Steven Wright are all in this same situation, and might rank higher than Johnson on the depth chart. Johnson is part of a group that is on the outside looking in at the moment, and while this sort of depth is great for the organization, it may not bode well for Johnson’s future with the Red Sox.

What Went Right in 2015

This part is fairly straight forward. The best thing about 2015 for Johnson was how well he performed during his time in Pawtucket. In 96.0 innings he posted a 3.19 RA9 (3.22 FIP), with a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Johnson was murder on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .256 OBP, but didn’t exactly struggle with righties, keeping them to a .282 OBP. All in all, Johnson handled the Triple-A level well and seemed ready for a promotion to a Red Sox staff that struggled mightily to begin the year.

He got the call to the big leagues on July 11, but did not get the chance to start until July 21, when he made his debut in Houston. Perhaps because of the oddly long stretch of inactivity, the outing did not go very well. Johnson allowed four runs in 4.1 innings, with more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). Despite this, it gave Johnson his first opportunity against big league hitters. Although he made only this one start, Johnson at least got a taste of the differences between navigating a major league lineup and that of one with Triple-A hitters.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Despite his mid-summer call-up, health and Florida car thieves made 2015 difficult for Johnson. Following that first outing against the Astros, Johnson made only two more appearances in 2015 – both for Pawtucket – because of an elbow injury. While elbow injuries are often followed by Tommy John surgery, Johnson did not end up going under the knife. He was instead diagnosed with a nerve-related issue that periodically left him with numbness in his left hand. This is generally good news, though there is some uncertainty regarding how to treat the injury.

With little improvement in his status by August, the Red Sox decided to shut down Johnson for the rest of the season. After a half-season of great pitching in the minor leagues and a major league debut under his belt, Johnson’s progress was halted, ultimately leaving his expectations for 2016 unclear.

Outlook for 2016 / MLB ETA

Johnson will compete for a spot at the back end of Boston’s rotation this spring, but is more likely to be called up if the team’s rotation is struck by injuries. He will need to demonstrate that his nerve issue is behind him, or that he can manage it over the course of a major league season and 150-plus innings on the mound. Most of his time will likely be spent in Pawtucket, where he will keep trying to showcase his big league credentials.

Johnson will probably see some time with Boston this season, but he could also be an intriguing piece in a potential trade. With all the depth the Red Sox have at starting pitcher, he could be dangled in a deal to improve the big league club in-season. Still, the more immediate concern is that Johnson resumes dominating hitters the way he did prior to his injury. If he continues that success, an opportunity in the majors will come calling eventually, whether with Boston or another team.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images