Presenting the full list 2017 Roster Recaps, listed with the authors that wrote them. An asterisk denotes a player who has, as of March 13th, dearly departed the Red Sox. We’ll miss them all terribly.

Catchers

• Sandy Leon (Cam Ellis)
• Blake Swihart (Jake Devereaux)
• Christian Vazquez (Brett Cowett)

Infielders

• Xander Bogaerts (Chris Teeter)
• Chase d’Arnaud* (Matt Kory)
• Rafael Devers (Kory)
• Marco Hernandez (Cowett)
• Brock Holt (Devereaux)
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Cowett)
• Deven Marrero (Cowett)
• Mitch Moreland (Cowett)
• Eduardo Nunez (Teeter)
• Dustin Pedroia (Kory)
• Hanley Ramirez (Devereaux)
• Josh Rutledge* (Cowett)
• Pablo Sandoval* (Cowett)
• Sam Travis (Teeter)

Outfielders

• Andrew Benintendi (Ellis)
• Mookie Betts (Kory)
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Cowett)
• Rajai Davis* (Daniel Poarch)
• Steve Selsky (Ellis)
• Chris Young* (Cowett)

Pitchers

• Fernando Abad* (Ellis)
• Matt Barnes (Cowett)
• Blaine Boyer* (Cowett)
• Roenis Elias (Poarch)
• Doug Fister* (Kory)
• Heath Hembree (Kory)
• Brian Johnson (Teeter)
• Joe Kelly (Ellis)
• Kyle Kendrick* (Poarch)
• Craig Kimbrel (Cowett)
• Austin Maddox (Ellis)
• Kyle Martin (Poarch)
• Drew Pomeranz (Ellis)
• Rick Porcello (Teeter)
• David Price (Ellis)
• Noe Ramirez* (Poarch)
• Addison Reed* (Ellis)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Cowett)
• Robbie Ross* (Cowett)
• Chris Sale (Cowett)
• Robby Scott (Cowett)
• Carson Smith (Teeter)
• Ben Taylor (Cowett)
• Hector Velazquez (Devereaux)
• Brandon Workman (Ellis)
• Steven Wright (Kory)

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

This past season was certainly a difficult one for Holt on and off the field. The beloved bench bat, who has dealt with concussion issues over the years, missed time from late April until mid-July dealing with vertigo. There were times last year when I remember wondering if he would ever even play baseball again. As scary as that thought was for us fans, I imagine it was devastating for him. When Holt did return, he played his usual myriad of positions, but did so at the lowest level of his career. As we look to the 2018 season, there is a real argument to be made that the team would be better off without Holt.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

After getting back to the field on July 16th Holt didn’t miss any time for the remainder of the season. Just being able to stick with the team and not have to leave due to recurring vertigo was a victory for the player and the team. Oh, and the hair and smile were good all year.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Let’s begin with his batting line for the season. Over 64 games and 164 PA, Holt slashed .200/.305/.243 with zero home runs and just seven RBI. He was completely inept at the plate the entire season in a way that he had never shown us before. His .214 TAv was by far the lowest mark of his career, and overall, Holt was a detriment to the team offensively. Though he was once one of the strangest All-Stars in recent memory, Holt has never really created plus value with his bat. His offense has always been predicated on making contact.

The fact that John Farrell could trust Holt to play nearly every position on the field has always been his most valuable attribute. You knew you were going to get league average or worse offense, but there was little chance he would make a play that would kill you in the field. Holt wasn’t great, but simply solid all around the infield and in the corners of the outfield. After providing 6.7 FRAA in 2016 that number slipped to just 1.1 in 2017. The overall result was a player that was worth -0.2 WARP or -0.9 fWAR depending on which calculation you like best. Either way, negative WAR is not a good look.

WHAT TO EXPECT

I mentioned at the beginning how much his smile was worth and the Red Sox would be smart to move on from Brock Holt if they can find a trade partner. As the team looks at its potential bench for 2018, there are several more appealing options. Devin Marrero is a far superior defender in the infield and is out of options. Bryce Brentz, who was recently added to the 40-man roster, is a much better offensive player than Holt and is also out of options. Since the Red Sox have three guys who can play center field Brentz’s poor defense is no issue here. Sandy Leon, as long as he remains with the team, will take up a bench spot.

Perhaps the most interesting player who could replace Holt is Blake Swihart, who had .997 OPS in Dominican winter league ball. He is out of options and could surely be used all around the infield and in the outfield, although if I see him in the outfield again I might cry. The team could decide to try and shop one of the other players mentioned in order to get Sam Travis on the team. Travis, who mashes lefties, could make for an intriguing platoon partner for Mitch Moreland. All of this is to say that Holt might be too expensive and not good enough with either the glove or bat to warrant a spot on the team in 2018. It’s been a fun ride, but for the club and player, it’s probably time to get off.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

Outside the type of production that Moreland brings to the Red Sox, which Brett Cowett went into a few weeks back, the move gives provides an interesting insight how they’re evaluating the first base position heading into 2018.

If this were four years ago, Eric Hosmer leaves the Winter Meetings in a Red Sox jersey. I don’t think it plays a major role in day-to-day decision making, and every year is different, but I can’t help but feel like the handful of misfires over the past couple offseasons have scared the Red Sox away from going after Hosmer as hard as they otherwise would. Martinez isn’t a safe bet, but packaging Hosmer’s flawed hitting with his intangibles as a leader felt a lot like pairing Sandoval’s declining numbers with his postseason experience, or Hanley’s inconsistency with his desire to come back to the team that drafted him. I just don’t think the Red Sox were ready to put their chips on that color again.

The move’s also a pretty strong indictment of the role the team has in mind for Hanley Ramirez going forward. He’s already making $22 million this year, and only needs 497 plate appearances to cash in on another guaranteed $22 million in 2019. Durability isn’t on his side, but just try and imagine how awkward that situation becomes in August if Hanley has a healthy but unproductive year. That’s another incentive to get a deal done with Martinez; from an optics perspective, it’s a lot easier to get away with giving Hanley’s PAs to Martinez than it is giving them to Sam Travis. My gut says the team wants to give him one more shot at hitting lower in the lineup with a healthy shoulder, but his days in Boston are pretty clearly numbered. The idea of him not making next year’s team isn’t inconceivable anymore.

For his career, Mitch Moreland has been just below league average (98 wRC+, .263 TAv) at the plate. There’s obviously a chance he doesn’t break any toes next year and puts up consistently good numbers, but as a 32-year old with eight years experience, it’s pretty clear that he is what he is. Even with the time missed from breaking said toe, Moreland played in more games last year than he ever had before. Quickly, before I wrap up this Mitch Moreland-y assessment of Mitch Moreland, a quick player comparison:

Mitch Moreland in 2017 (576 PAs): .246/.326/.443, 98 wRC+, 22 HRs, 0.48 BB/K

Player B in 2017 (553 PAs): .242/.320/.429, 93 wRC+, 23 HRs, 0.44 BB/K

Player B? Why that’s Hanley Ramirez! Last year, Moreland was essentially Hanley Ramirez with better defense, and I’ll let you choose who that speaks more about.

Fellow BP Bostonian Matthew Kory put it best:

Mitch Moreland is not good. Giving him two years is bad. Spending $13M to avoid giving Eric Hosmer $175M is a damn bargain

— Matthew Kory (@mattymatty2000) December 18, 2017

The good news is that the Red Sox avoided giving another lengthy contract to a flawed hitter. It’s a safe, albeit expensive, insurance policy. Just go sign Martinez and none of this will matter anymore.

Photo by Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports

• Offseason 2015: move Hanley Ramirez to first base? Sure, he will only play there for a season before David Ortiz retires, opening up the DH spot, and Travis is potentially major league ready.
• Offseason 2016: sign Mitch Moreland to a one-year deal rather than signing someone like Edwin Encarnacion to a longer deal? Sure, it is only for one season, it lets Hanley focus solely on hitting, and Travis’ timeline was delayed after he tore his ACL.

But now what? Does the front office stay this course and give Sam Travis the position on a full-time or part-time basis in 2018? Or do they shift from it and sign one of J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, or (my preference) Carlos Santana, effectively ending Travis’ shot at a role in Boston? Either way, Travis will soon have a clearer idea about his future with the organization.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

The primary positive for Travis was his finally getting the call to the big leagues. He hit really well for Pawtucket in May (.333/.389/.561 in 72 PA), earning his first opportunity with the Red Sox at the end of that month.

He carried his hot hitting in May with him to the big leagues – collecting five hits in his first 12 plate appearances – but cooled off once the calendar flipped to June, and never really regained that May form the rest of the way for Pawtucket or in his subsequent stints in Boston.

If you dig a little deeper into Travis’ performance you find the skill most likely to keep him in the big leagues for an extended period: hitting left-handed pitching. Against lefties in 2017, he slashed .314/.400/.505 at the Triple-A level (105 PA) and .381/.458/.500 in the majors (48 PA). Those aren’t exactly huge samples, but the results don’t deviate from what he has done against lefties at every level throughout his career. His ability to hit lefties opens up a fallback role for him as a right-handed bat off the bench.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Outside of May and against lefties, he didn’t really hit well. He finished the season with a .259 TAv at Pawtucket and a much worse .217 for the Red Sox. Being that he is a first baseman (and maybe a corner outfielder in a stretch) those rates are not going to play. He needs to hit better. Prospect gurus see him as a potentially above-average defender, but he still has to hit much better than he has in order to provide value.

The thing that really sticks out to me about Travis’ underwhelming hitting is that he hit just six home runs last year for Pawtucket and has never hit more than 10 in a season at any level.

All jokes aside on how he fit right in with the 2017 Red Sox, Travis’ lack of power is troubling; especially when it isn’t supplanted with way-above-average contact ability. His power problems in 2017 were not limited to lacking dingers, as he posted the lowest isolated power marks of his career. But I want to stick with the home run thing for another couple of sentences: he also had six home runs in 2016, but did so in just 190 PA, 150 fewer than he needed to get his six last year. Perhaps the knee injury that shortened his 2016 season sapped some of his power potential, or he needs more time to build strength in the knee. Regardless, Travis showing more power would be nice.

WHAT TO EXPECT

As noted at the top, Travis’ role with the Red Sox in 2018 (and beyond) depends on the moves the organization makes this offseason. The scoopers out there suggest that signing J.D. Martinez is all but a certainty. If true, Martinez and Hanley are the primary 1B/DH options, leaving Travis without a spot. I suppose in that situation Travis could take on a right-handed bench-bat role, but it seems unlikely that he would be used to hit for JDM or Hanley. There would also be considerable redundancy with Bryce Brentz, who seems to have the inside track on that job, so I don’t think a bench role like that fits for Travis. As such, it is more likely that Travis spends the majority of 2018 in the minors and/or is included in a trade.

Alternatively, if the team opts to stay away from the splashy signing of JDM and instead sign one of the second-tier left-handed-hitting first base options (e.g., Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce) then I can see a role with the Red Sox for Travis as the short-side of a first-base platoon. We know he can hit lefties, so that could be his primary gig. Regardless, it seems as though Travis’ future is going to be driven by whichever player the Red Sox bring in to start at first base.

Photo by Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports

One thing this offense excels in is making contact. They are third in the majors in contact percentage, just slightly behind the leading Houston Astros. That is, without a doubt, a good thing. They don’t swing and miss, they put the ball in play, and force the other team to get them out. That’s a sound strategy, and ups the chance that your opponent will make a mistake in your favor. Where the Red Sox differ from the Astros in this regard is how much power they’re getting out of that contact. While the Astros lead the majors with a .201 Isolated Power, the Red Sox are a distant 26th place with a .149 ISO. Our very own Matt Kory wrote about the disappearance of the long ball on this webpage over two months ago, and while he did say the offense would be different, I don’t think he expected it to still lack power six weeks later.

The hitters aren’t going to run into one because that’s not really what they do in the post-Papi era. This offense is tailored to deliver death by paper cuts.

This leaves the offense susceptible to stretches of ineptitude, where the bounces don’t go your way, or when you can’t string hits together despite putting the ball in play. The hitters aren’t going to run into one because that’s not really what they do in the post-Papi era. This offense is tailored to deliver death by paper cuts, not crush baseballs 400 feet every other inning. While the Red Sox are in the top five in Fangraphs’ Hard Hit Percentage, they are also top five in infield fly ball percentage, which are basically pop-ups. Combine that with the 29th-ranked HR/FB rate, and you’re looking at a lot of weak contact in the air. The Red Sox can smoke a ton of liners and grounders, but they’ve been putrid when they’ve gotten under the ball whatsoever.

So let’s look at the sources of power for the Red Sox. Mitch Moreland’s been a pleasant surprise, and he’s still crushing homers despite a broken toe. Jackie Bradley Jr. is riding one of his patented hot streaks, so his ISO has risen to .211, just a point below Moreland. You’ve got the excellently consistent Mookie Betts sitting on a .203 ISO, and then…there’s a near-40-point gap to Hanley Ramirez’s .165. If that doesn’t seem bad enough, Dustin Pedroia has a .073 ISO. Yeesh.

Ramirez in particular has been an issue. I wrote about him last week, and revealed that he’s been awful against lefties, sliders, and anything up in the zone. I thought he was relatively healthy, but the shoulder is apparently still bothering him at times, and now his knee has been battered so badly that he’s had to sit out several games. Not a lot of driving force for Han-Ram.

Due to Hanley being a quasi-permanent DH for three months, I’m proposing a plan to 1. give the Red Sox some chance at finding power in their lineup, 2. make them healthier in general, and 3. give some of the young guys a chance to stick.

1. Place Hanley Ramirez on the 10-day DL.

Ramirez has a .265 TAv right now, cannot play the field, and is dealing with a sore knee. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had foot issues as well, considering all the foul balls he ends up drilling into his cleats. No matter the malady, he needs some time off. Three months of shoulder soreness is worrying, especially if it’s bad enough that playing first base is not at all an option. This all seems very 2015-like, where he crumpled his shoulder like a soda can early on in the season, came back a few days later, and was never the same. The Red Sox need to give him time off. He’s not hitting well, he’s clearly still hurt, and trotting him out there further exacerbates any problem he currently has.

2. Utilize a rotation with the DH spot.

Chris Teeter wrote about the Red Sox losing the platoon advantage a couple days ago, and with Ramirez out of the way, the DH spot becomes more flexible for per-game strategy. Chris Young is starting to see more time against lefties with Andrew Benintendi still struggling against them, and Sam Travis has been somewhat underused. You could even put Moreland here, and take some stress off the guy with the broken toe. Ramirez being on the DL lets the Red Sox be more flexible with lineup construction.

3. Call up Rafael Devers, even if it’s only for a couple weeks.

This is probably the hottest take here, so here goes: I think Devers could, right now, hit better than Ramirez’s currently slash of .241/.341/.406., and even if he doesn’t walk as much, he could make up for it with his power (insert fire emojis here). I don’t think it would hinder his development much – if at all – by giving him a cup of coffee for a couple weeks of games, while the Red Sox let Pablo Sandoval and Jhonny Peralta duke it out for the hot corner in Pawtucket. With the DH slot rotating, he wouldn’t even need to play third base all the time to get some plate appearances. Could his call-up be as uninspiring as Yoan Moncada’s last year? Possibly. But it’s worth a shot for a team starved for power, and costs them little to nothing to do so.

The Red Sox desperately need some sort of pop, and with how this team is built, it’s hard to go outside the organization to find it. The offense can put the bat on the ball with the best of them, but when it comes to putting power behind those hits, the Red Sox are no dynamos. The team isn’t in dire straits when it comes to winning games, but a lineup lacking power will keep this team struggling more often than you’d expect.

Photo by Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports

He’s a very Red Sox-y hitter.

You take a look at Travis’ numbers and you see exactly why the Red Sox drafted him. This year, Travis’ BB% (9.4) mirrors the average of the 2017 Red Sox (9.1) almost perfectly. The strikeouts aren’t far off either, with Travis’ K% (17.3) being a hair lower than the 2017 Sox average (19.5). While that’s most likely nothing more than a very convenient coincidence, it highlights the low-strikeout, high-walk plate approach the team has loved so much over the last decade or so.  Here’s a fun fact: every Red Sox player with at least 100 PAs has 1. a higher BB% than league average (8.8) and 2. all but two (Moreland, JBJ) with 100 PAs have a K% below league average. They make contact and see a lot of pitches, two things that Travis has always done well in the minors.

The Red Sox suddenly need first baseman depth.

Suddenly might be the wrong word here, seeing as Hanley Ramirez has played exactly one (1) game at first base this year. Hanley apparently has lingering shoulder issues that prevent him from playing the field, or has just realized that DH-ing is a pretty dope gig. Either way, Mitch Moreland needs to sleep eventually, so this is where we find ourselves. The general consensus seems to be he’ll be the platoon guy the team envisioned Ramirez being, only now we don’t have to sit around and play that awkward game where we pretend we’re waiting for Hanley to be healthy enough to play first again. Everyone’s happier this way.

He could (theoretically) help with the power issues.

Through two months, the 2017 Red Sox have a .141 ISO (26th in MLB), a .408 SLG (20th in MLB) and have hit 38 home runs (29th in MLB). Weirdly enough, though, (like we pointed out earlier this week) the Sox are an hitting the ball at an elite level. Through his three years in the minors, Travis has put up pretty decent power numbers, posting an ISO over .140 (what’s roughly considered an average hitter) each season, and at least once at every level besides Double-A (.136 there, though). He also puts up a SLG in the mid-to-high .400’s along his various minor league stops. Aaron Judge he is not, but the Red Sox could use all the power help they can get.

Photo by Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports

What follows is a very, very serious breakdown of their abilities and is in no way an attempt to quickly produce content late on a Sunday evening. As such:

2017 RED SOX NON-ROSTER SPRING TRAINING INVITEES, RANKED:

17) Jake DePew, C
I don’t know who Jake DePew is.

16) Jordan Procyshen, C
I don’t know who Jordan Procyshen is.

15) Marcus Walden, RHP
I don’t know who Marcus Walden is.

14) Kyle Kendrick, RHP
I am all too familiar with who Kyle Kendrick is, and so are you. His career ERA is 4.61. He strikes out so few people it’s a wonder Terry Ryan didn’t sign him to a lifetime contract. He’s been a whipping boy the past four seasons, and when he wasn’t a whipping boy, he was an uninspiring no. 5 starter. He might be better than Henry Owens.

13) Dan Butler, C
Dan Butler hit. 308/.399/.452 serving as a backup in Triple-A last season. He’s 30 and he’s bad, but could he be 2017’s Sandy Leon? You decide, friends. You decide.

12) Austin Maddox, RHP
Austin Maddox was a third-round pick out of Florida in 2012. I wanted to say he could be the next Noe Ramirez, but Noe Ramirez had more promising MiLB numbers.

11) Allen Craig, 1B
Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff™ aside, it’s beginning to look like that John Lackey trade might not work out. Craig played in just 29 games last season thanks to knee inflammation. The last time he logged substantial playing time (2015), he hit .274/.368/.350 in Triple-A. Yes, really .350, from a dude a who once slugged .555 in the majors. Sadface.

10) Brian Bogusevic, OF
Bogusevic was a first-round pick, you know. He’s only hit .238/.311/.373 in his career, but he has managed to appear in 321 games, and he has notched 834 PA. And he’s been not totally terrible against RHP in his career, hitting .254/.330/.403. You might call that a disappointment, but it beats the hell out of anything Jason Place, Trey Ball, Michael Chavis or Deven Marrero has done/is going to do. Don’t be mean to Brian Bogusevic, is what I’m saying.

9) Ben Taylor, RHP
The Red Sox converted Taylor to relief in 2016, and the initial results were promising. Taylor carved up High-A hitters to the tune of a 2.60 ERA and a 31.3 K%. He doesn’t really have an out-pitch, though, and seeing as he’s already 24, he needs to show what he’s got in the upper minors to be of any real interest.

8) Jamie Callahan, RHP
Callahan was a second-round pick in 2012. He struck out 22 percent of the batters he faced in High-A last season, which is good. He also walked 13.2 percent of the batters he faced, which is very, extremely bad. Here’s to hoping his second full season in relief goes better than his first. Also, tunnel reference/joke.

7) Junior Lake, OF
You remember Lake, no? Before the Cubs were The Cubs, Lake was one of their more promising prospects, but he was always viewed as high-risk, high-reward. In 2013 it looked like Lake might’ve figured it out, but his MLB success was short-lived. He signed on as a minor league free agent with the Blue Jays last season, and will now fill that role in Boston. It’s his age-27 season and there’s always a chance it will click late with guys, so it makes sense to roll the dice on someone with Lake’s talent. Don’t hold your breath, though.

6) Chandler Shepherd, RHP
Shepherd was dominant as a reliever in Pawtucket last season, but is already 24 and lacks much of anything other than a good slider. He’s got ROOGY potential, but the Red Sox are loaded with ROOGYs.

5) Edgar Olmos, LHP
Over the past two seasons, Olmos has been: DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Rangers; returned to the Mariners; DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Cubs; claimed by the Orioles; reclaimed by the Cubs; traded to the Orioles and then signed by the Red Sox. Teach your sons to throw left-handed.

4) Rusney Castillo, OF
Don’t you just hate it when you sign on to a new job and then they develop an MVP candidate, a role-6 center fielder and a potential ROY all to do the same thing you do? Just brutal. There’s a non-zero chance Castillo can sniff the majors this season, because aside from Mookie Betts and Chris Young, there’s not a lot of right-handed action occurring in Boston’s outfield. Castillo will need to hit better than .263/.309/.354 in Pawtucket to get another chance in Fenway, though. Also, he’s 29.

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B
We don’t always give scouts the credit they deserve for being right. When Dominguez was drafted, the rap on him was that he’d be a plus defender at the hot corner and that he’d have some pop, but the it tool was a big question mark. Check and check. Dominguez is good with the glove and has big right-handed power, but he didn’t hit well enough to earn an everyday job somewhere. He could, theoretically, earn himself a platoon role with Pablo Sandoval, as Evan Drellich writes here. Could Dominguez essentially take Travis Shaw’s spot on the 2017 roster? These are the  questions that keep us all up at night.

2) Sam Travis, 1B
At some point this season Sam Travis is going to be labeled as a potential savior, and it’s going to suck. Travis is a doubles-hitting first baseman who has a real nose for the ball but who lacks elite power or an elite glove. Can he be a part of a first-division team? Yes. Should he be an everyday starter? No. Is he going to solve any offensive problems the Red Sox have halfway through the season? Not at all. The thinning out of the farm system is gonna make Travis seem better than he is — there’s an argument he’s the third-best dude in the system after Rafael Devers and Jason Groome, once Andrew Benintendi graduates. I feel bad for him.

1) Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers, however, is not overrated. He recently ranked as the no. 13 overall prospect in BP’s top-101, as he could be a potential 6-power, 6-hit third baseman. That presumes quite a few things, of course — the power comes, the hit tool plays up, he stays at the hot corner — but he’s got legit, All-Star-level upside. He shouldn’t contribute much in 2017, but it’s not crazy to think he’ll be a factor in 2018. He’s the most interesting non-roster invitiee heading into the season, and odds are he will be next season, too.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Going Deep

The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done for the Red Sox and realistically only two positions (catcher, third base) will involve any sort of competition in the Spring, so the discussion of how to best align the players is worth starting. Today, the batting order. Criticizing a batting order for any one game is likely a bit much – playoffs are a different animal – but consistently using sub-optimal lineups can amount to one or two fewer wins over the course of the season. So making an effort to optimize the lineup, which is fairly simple and cheap, is a worthwhile endeavour. You, smart reader of this website, probably already know all this, but I felt the need to further justify discussing the batting order in January. In any case, the batting order comes up because Red Sox manager John Farrell recently discussed it.

In an interview on WEEI, Farrell said that he is considering Andrew Benintendi for the number two spot in the lineup. That seems like a dramatic move for a player who started last year in Double-A. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examined this idea, outlining how Benintendi’s skillset would work at the top of the order and how having him there would break up the four right-handed batters (i.e., Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez) that are likely to be at the top.

I like the idea of having Benintendi at the top of the order for the reasons MacPherson cites in his article, but I would not hit him second. I would drop him one spot to hit him third. Specifically, here is how I would write out the lineups:

Having Benintendi hit third rather than second may seem minor, but it keeps Betts, the team’s best hitter, in the all-important second spot, splits the right-handed hitters at the top of the order evenly, and prevents overloading things with left-handed hitters in the six through nine spots.

There are two other aspects worth noting about these suggested lineups. First, Pablo Sandoval is considered a switch-hitter, even though that aspect of his game is not necessarily known at this point. His ability to hit right-handed means that hitting him between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mitch Moreland avoids having back-to-back lefties, thereby making life a little more difficult for opposing managers who want to matchup relievers later in the game. Second, if/when Blake Swihart assumes the primary catching duties, I would slot him into the nine spot currently occupied by Sandy Leon, but I can see the case for flipping him with Sandoval if his offense takes off the way some people think it will.

Ok. I suspect that’s enough lineup talk for now.

Quick Hits

In some respects this offseason has been strange. The most prominent example of this is the number of sluggers who remain unsigned (e.g., Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter) and how the market for those who have signed(e.g., Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista) collapsed. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more on how the league is valuing sluggers differently than they have in the past. The availability of these offensive threats has Brian MacPherson wondering if the Red Sox moved too quickly in acquiring Mitch Moreland. Perhaps, but I think the team’s desire to get under the luxury tax threshold ruled out all of the marquee names.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox have six candidates for the five starting rotation spots. Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello will certainly hold three of the five spots. The last two are available for Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright to take. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Dave Dombroski suggested that Wright and Pomeranz have the inside line. Nick Friar of CSNNE.com examines each possible pairing for the remaining spots and suggests that Dombrowski’s preference is not the best option. Who knows how strongly Dombrowski feels that the spots are Wright and Pomeranz’s to lose. Maybe this was just an old-school-tactic of using the media to try and light a fire under Rodriguez.

While questions remain in the rotation, the starting lineups are pretty much set – well, maybe not at catcher. At MLB.com, Ian Browne has been writing an Around the Horn series that looks at each area of the Red Sox. He started with the relatively unclear status of the catching position, then moved onto the corner infield spots and middle infielders, and finally the Baby Bs in the outfield. The series is definitely worth checking out.

An aspect of the Red Sox organization that likely helped their young core transition to the major league level is the Rookie Development Program that they run. This program is intended to familiarize players expected to reach the big leagues in the near future (~18 months) with members of the front office, the Red Sox coaching staff, and the city of Boston. Alex Speier has details on the eight players invited to the program this year, which includes Rafael Devers, Sam Travis and a bunch of relievers.

Speaking of development, Rusney Castillo – remember him? – is still in the organization and, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, might be back in the mix. This suggestion comes as a result of Castillo’s strong performance with Alex Cora’s team in the Puerto Rico Winter League. While the outfielders at the big league level are established, a solid Spring Training could earn Castillo an opportunity to start in Pawtucket and/or pique the interest of another organization.

Much has been written about the overhauling of the Red Sox bullpen. Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler are gone. Tyler Thornburg has been added and Joe Kelly has permanently shifted his focus to life as a reliever. Another player who many, including myself, are counting on to provide strong innings out of the bullpen is Carson Smith. Smith is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and as such is not expected to be back with the Red Sox before mid-season. But, as Matt Collins, managing editor (congratulations, Matt!) of Over the Monster, reminds us, coming back from Tommy John surgery is no guarantee. Ideally Smith is more Nate Jones than Bobby Parnell.

Finally, do you want to know what baseball-analytics-legend and Red Sox Senior Advisor Bill James thinks of the 2017 team? Last week he talked to Brian Kenny on MLB Now about that very thing, check out their discussion here.

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A friend asked me in December via text, “Do we see Sam Travis this year?” I replied, “If we drive down to Pawtucket together.” While I was joking, I was also having a really hard time seeing how he fit into the Red Sox’s plans in 2017. I, like the rest of the baseball world, was waiting for the Red Sox to sign or trade for the “Ortiz replacement.” Instead of making a big splash offensively and signing Edwin Encarncion or trading for someone like Joey Votto, the club went in the opposite direction and traded for one of baseball’s best pitchers.    

While trading for Chris Sale was awesome, the team also made the very uninspiring move of signing Mitch Moreland. With only minor tweaks to the roster on the horizon it appears that Travis could be the first bat called upon in the case of an injury. Travis could end up being a much larger factor next season than I first believed.

What went right in 2016

Travis closed out 2015 with a remarkably strong performance in the Arizona Fall League where he slashed .344/.394/.505, the highest batting average for any player with at least 20 games played. As spring training finished up, Travis drew an assignment to play 1B every day at Triple-A Pawtucket. This would be his first taste of International League pitching.

Travis immediately looked like he belonged, slashing a strong .272/.332/.434 while leading the league in RBIs with 29 during his first 47 games. Then injury struck, but we’ll get to that below. 

While Travis doesn’t look like a sexy prospect rife with projection he is as safe as prospects come. We know what his hit tool is and that it should play at the next level. In addition to the great batting average, Travis has improved his plate discipline, raising his walk rate every full season while maintaining a great contract rate as well. The ACL injury (again, more below) might be a worry for some players, but we are talking about a first baseman here.

What went wrong in 2016

Soo about that injury … While making a very routine rundown play on May 29th Travis tore his ACL ending his season and any hopes he had of making it to the majors in 2016. Travis never did like being outdone by his old Indiana teammate Kyle Schwarber, who suffered the same type of knee injury the month before. The difference was that Travis wouldn’t make it back in time for the playoffs and would have to wait for 2017.  

On the field there was hardly anything to complain about except for the usual knocks; just six home runs and 10 doubles with a modest .434 slugging percentage. If you were looking for a player who was still coming into his power, then you had best look elsewhere. Travis is not about to become a power hitting first baseman; in fact he has never hit more than nine home runs in any given season. On the flipside, he has also never batted less than .307 in any given full season. He is who he is, a guy who will create most of his value with batting average, on-base percentage, and (hopefully) solid defense at first.

What to expect in 2017

Travis is not likely to open up 2017 on the Red Sox bench even if he has a tremendous spring. Two of the bench spots will most likely will go to Josh Rutledge and Brock Holt with their abilities to play multiple positions: Travis has only ever played first base professionally. The third bench spot will go to the backup catcher, likely Christian Vazquez. The last spot figures to go to backup outfielder and Moreland platoon-mate, Chris Young.

Here is where things get interesting. The current platoon has Moreland taking a seat vs. lefties with Hanley Ramirez shifting to first base and lefty-masher Young batting DH (probably, at least). Against righties, Moreland will man first base, Ramirez will be the DH, and Young will ride the pine. Should an injury occur in the outfield I think it is more likely that Travis gets the call than someone like Bryce Brentz. The reason why? Travis mashes lefties and both he and Young are better than Brentz with the bat.

A combo of Moreland and Travis could be good. Moreland has been pathetic in his career vs. LHP with a career line of .240/.295/.378, so letting him take all the at-bats is out of the question. Against RHP he has been much better with a line of .258/.321/.457. Travis has posted the following batting averages vs. LHP from short season ball up through AAA, .422, .406, .294, .370, and .300. Those last two averages came at AA and AAA, this is no small sample. A Travis/Moreland platoon looks like it could be pretty decent should it be forced to occur. It’s good to know, but let’s hope it doesn’t happen.

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Going Deep

After yesterday’s trade of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox appear to be left with six viable candidates for the five starting rotation spots: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright. Those first three are locks to be in the major league rotation, Rodriguez will be in a rotation, whether Boston or Pawtucket remains to be seen, and the last two have potential as bullpen options or even trade pieces; although after the Buchholz trade I don’t think they will be trading any more of these guys. Pomeranz is reportedly a target of the Seattle Mariners and due to his clearly high upside, Rodriguez would likely bring a substantial return, but these guys will be in-house projects for the foreseeable future. At MLB.com, Ian Browne weighed the pros and cons of keeping and trading each of Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright and Buchholz. Browne’s case for dealing Buchholz was largely the salary related advantages, which appears to have been the factor that made it happen.

While there were certainly positive aspects of trading one or more of these guys, I think the best move was to hold onto the depth – at least for now. It would take some juggling, as only Rodriguez has options remaining, but seasons tend to present circumstances that require having more than five (or even six) major league caliber starters. Brian Johnson, who will likely start the year at Pawtucket, is another player who is looking to join the major league rotation, but he is working his way back from issues related to anxiety and there remain questions about the health of his elbow. The other options at Pawtucket are Henry Owens and Roenis Elias, but neither has shown the consistent effectiveness required to engender confidence in them. So keeping the depth would have proven useful, and if not, one or two of these players (even Buchholz) could be dealt in the Spring, or even in-season to improve the club in other areas. I don’t understand the rush to get it done now.

Behind the starting rotation, the Red Sox’s bullpen will look quite different from what it did in 2016 and previous years. Koji Uehara, who Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wants us to remember was so important to the team over the last four seasons, is now a Cub, and Junichi Tazawa signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins a day before short-lived, but really effective, Red Sox Brad Ziegler did. That means the bulk of the 2016 high-leverage relief group is gone. Craig Kimbrel is still lurking at the end of games, but the path to him will be different. For 2017, the high-leverage group in front of Kimbrel will feature newly acquired Tyler Thornburg, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and eventually Carson Smith. The rest of the bullpen will be a flexible group: one (or more) of the guys that does not get a spot in the rotation, Heath Hembree (as a righty-specialist, now saved from being DFAd by the Buchholz trade), Fernando Abad (as a lefty-specialist), and Robbie Ross Jr. (as a multi-use guy). Peter Abraham has more on the depth the Red Sox have built in the relief corps. All in all the bullpen looks, at least on digital-paper, to be a strength of the team.

Quick Hits

As the Red Sox consider trading from their starting pitching depth and how such trades could impact the final form of the bullpen, they should keep in mind the trickle-down effect that Chris Sale will have on the pitching staff. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that with the acquisition of Sale, the Red Sox now have three of the 15 pitchers who threw 200+ innings in 2016. That sort of length from the rotation should make John Farrell’s bullpen decisions easier.

Adding Sale to the rotation makes it stronger than it was in 2016, however there are concerns about it being too left-handed (Sale, Price, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz). This could be especially problematic for the Red Sox given their home park, which tends to be unfriendly to lefty pitchers. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal digs into the numbers, specifically those of current (and potential) AL East foes. It could be a unique Red Sox rotation in terms of handedness, but two of the four (Sale and Price), have shown they can consistently get anybody out, so things should be fine.

Blake Swihart’s top-prospect status and bumps in the development path have kept him in the forefront of trade rumours. Being a top-prospect means other teams want him, and the bumps in development suggest the Red Sox would be willing to part with him. But Peter Gammons reported that Dave Dombrowski refused to include Swihart in any deal. At MassLive.com, Christopher Smith details how Swihart’s age, performance at the plate in the second half of 2015, and uncertainty surrounding Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, likely contributed to Dombrowski’s reluctance to trade Swihart.

In 2016, as the Red Sox fought to win the division they relied on a rookie, Andrew Benintendi, in left field. This led Christopher Smith to wonder if a similar situation will happen in 2017 with first baseman Sam Travis. Travis is returning from an ACL tear but if he gets back on the track he was on before the injury, it is reasonable that he could make his major league debut this summer. As Smith notes, Travis could platoon with Mitch Moreland at first base and push Hanley Ramirez to full time DH duties. There are many moving parts to this and a lot has to break right for it to happen, but it is an interesting idea nonetheless.

Speaking of Hanley, Ian Browne has a nice article detailing how the slugger is excited for the 2017 season and looking forward to taking over the DH role from his buddy, David Ortiz. Hanley is so much fun, especially when things are going well for him on the field, so here’s hoping he builds on his strong 2016 season.

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