Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts.

Partly that’s a function of the fact the Red Sox have been a better team than the Orioles over that time. Thus when Baltimore has picked it has more often been at the top of the draft where more is expected to come of the selection, whereas the Red Sox have often picked later where star power is much harder to come by.

But even then, the Red Sox have still done better than Baltimore. There are probably other teams that have done better than the Red Sox over the past three decades (going much deeper into draft history is pointless as the draft has changed so much since) but though they exist they likely aren’t many. Take for example, Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts, and that would be amazing.

Of course, that’s not the only time the Red Sox have had a non-first round pick and (to date) got more production out of it than any of the first rounders used that in that same draft. They did it in 2004 when they used the 65th overall pick to take Dustin Pedroia. If you want to hold this exercise to just the first round though, well, even then the Red Sox have done well. The following draft, 2005, the Red Sox had the 23rd pick as compensation for Orlando Cabrera signing with the Angels. They used it on outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the sixth most valuable player (B-R WAR) taken in that draft.

So the Red Sox have scored when they should’ve scored and scored when they probably shouldn’t have scored. But they haven’t always nailed it. In 2010, they used the 20th overall pick on Kolbrin Vitek with Christian Yelich taken three picks later. Vitek never made it above Double-A, retiring four years after being picked. Even so though, the 20th pick isn’t a surefire star waiting to happen. That’s more like a guy you’d hope could turn into a solid contributor. Vitek never was that (why he’s mentioned in this paragraph!) but missing out on the 20th overall pick isn’t something to quit over. Oddly enough, current Red Sox star pitcher Chris Sale was selected seven picks earlier, but I digress.

The real problem, as the Orioles can attest to, is getting a top-ten pick and blowing it on nothing. The Red Sox haven’t officially done that yet, but it’s pretty close. Trey Ball has a 5.53 ERA in Double-A and is looking less like a future rotation cornerstone and more like a guy who gets dropped in the end of an insubstantial trade, or even converted to the outfield because why not? Worse, Boston took Ball with a bunch of still promising guys available (Austin Meadows, JP Crawford, Hunter Dozier, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge), though that’s how every draft is. There’s always someone promising available. The trick is knowing who it is.

You have to go pretty far back to find so high a pick go so badly for the Red Sox. In 1995 the Red Sox took pitcher Andy Yount two picks before Roy Halladay went to the Blue Jays, but that was with the 15th overall pick, not the seventh. In 1994 Boston took Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick, and in ’93 they took Trot Nixon with the seventh pick. Hard to complain about either, even if Nixon didn’t ever quite live up to the star power that was projected upon him.

Since Theo Epstein took over the GM’s seat in early 2003 the Red Sox have been incredibly good at getting value out of the draft. It’s hard to win three World Series in fifteen years without getting something substantial from the draft. The Red Sox built the foundation of their first World Series winning team through trades and free agency, but their second, the 2007 team came far more from the draft. While there were ’04 crossovers in Jason Varitek and David Ortiz, and free agents like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the ’07 team was also Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon. The 2013 team was similar in its composition. Lots of free agents and players acquired in trades, but with a solid core of home grown players like Lester, Pedroia, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Will Middlebrooks, and Ellsbury, with assists from Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley.

Looking at that 2013 squad, you can still see the roots stretching back to Theo Epstein and Boston’s first world championship in almost a century, but so can you see the future, or as we here in 2017 say, the present. The Red Sox don’t owe it all to the draft. They’re not the Rays or the Astros, but the draft has provided the Red Sox with a lot of value and a sizable amount of star power over the past few decades. So when going to look for Boston’s biggest draft busts or some such thing, you’ll have to be searching for a long time. Or, put more succinctly, the Red Sox aren’t the Orioles. Because when it comes to the draft, the Red Sox are hobgood at it.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports

Michael Kopech

With Moncada getting sent home early, Kopech became the top Red Sox player in the league, and he took the baseball world by storm. He flashed his famous high-velocity fastball, consistently touching the high-90s and sometimes hitting triple digits. He made six starts in Arizona, totaling 22 innings and pitching to an impressive 2.01 ERA. Unsurprisingly, he racked up the strikeouts, setting down 10.5 batters per nine innings thanks to his aforementioned fastball along with an impressive slider. The command continued to be something of an issue, though not one that handcuffed him much in this league. He allowed two home runs in those six starts while walking 3.2 batters per nine innings.

Stock: It’s impossible to say Kopech’s stock has done anything but rise after his performance in Arizona. He was already one of the more exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball, and the fact that he pitched so well and pitched to his strengths in front of a plethora of scouts from across the league is a positive. There is still some question as to whether he’ll be able to harness his command enough to make it as a top-line starter, but it seems more are starting to come around to that idea. His performance in the All-Star Game (two perfect innings with three strikeouts) certainly helped matters. He’s not the best pitching prospect in baseball, but he continued to move up the ranks this fall.

Mauricio Dubon

If you know me at all, you know how much I like Dubon as a prospect. His combination of bat-to-ball ability, speed and defense around the infield gives him a chance to be a good regular in this league and should lead him to at least a long career as a utility man. The former 26th-round pick took a huge step forward in 2016, impressing in both Salem and Portland. While he was hoping to take another step in Arizona, it didn’t go his way. In 18 games, he hit just .211/.273/.408 with three home runs and three stolen bases in five attempts. It was a disappointing offensive performance after such a great year, and one that could indicate a bit of fatigue after a long season. The power is intriguing, and something that he showed off in Portland as well, but Arizona lends itself to inflated power numbers.

Stock: While the overall performance was disappointing, I don’t think it’s fair to say his stock has dropped. Dubon struggled over a small sample, but as I said fatigue could also be an issue. Additionally, he started getting some time in the outfield and didn’t look completely overmatched by the change. Versatility is always going to be the name of the game for Dubon, and getting his outfield career started was an important step for him. That’s true even if it was accompanied by a lackluster offensive performance.

Trey Ball

Ugh. The Red Sox have done a lot of good things in the draft over the years, but their first top-10 pick in what seemed like forever could not have gone worse. Ball was always going to be a project, but he continued to slip over the course of 2016. The hope was that a trip to Arizona would kickstart his career. That…well that didn’t happen. He threw 13 innings across 11 relief appearances, and pitched to a 6.08 ERA in that time. He also walked 13 batters (one per inning, for those who struggle in math) while striking out just nine.

Stock: Down. The same direction it’s been going since Ball has entered the organization. There was certainly criticism of this pick at the time it was made, but we’re seeing the darkest timeline. With the lefty projected to hit Portland in 2017, it’s hard to see things getting any better. Ball was a two-way player when he was drafted, and perhaps the Red Sox are approaching the time to try him in the field.

Jamie Callahan

A former second-round pick, Callahan made his way through the first half of his trip in the minors as a starter before converting to the bullpen in the middle of the 2015 season. He spent the entire 2016 campaign in that role, and showed off decent strikeout stuff with iffy command. In Arizona, however, he looked much better. It was only 12 innings of work, but he allowed just one run on 12 strikeouts and three walks.

Stock: Up. Callahan’s stock was never all that high to begin with, and this strong performance isn’t one to get carried away with. On the other hand, he’s still relatively new to his relief role and did this against a lot of very good competition. He wouldn’t be anything more than the third or fourth piece in a good trade, but he’ll look to take another step towards a real major-league career in a Double-A bullpen next season.

Jalen Beeks

Beeks is a lefty who split the season evenly between High-A and Double-A, impressing in the former and disappointing in the latter. He threw out of the bullpen in Arizona, managing 12 innings of work in ten appearances. Although he struck out 13 batters in those 12 innings, he also gave up plenty of hard contact en route to a 6.57 ERA.

Stock: Even. The performance was bad, but Beeks doesn’t have much stock to begin with. The strikeout stuff was nice to see, and as I said in Dubon’s section home runs are an issue for everyone here. He’s still the same guy with a ceiling of a back-end starter and more likely future as either a back-and-forth arm or a middle reliever.

Danny Mars

We won’t spend too much time here, as Mars is the least exciting name in this bunch. A former sixth-round pick, he spent the season hitting reasonably well in Salem. In Arizona, though, he hit .259/.290/.293 in 17 games.

Stock: Down. Only a little, though. As I said, Mars was never all that exciting to begin with. However, even if the scouts didn’t love him he always put up solid numbers in the minors. Not doing so in Arizona is clearly not a good sign.

 Photo by Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Boston Red Sox of the American League East and Major League Baseball: Andrew Benintendi (OF)

He’s here! It’s happening! He got his first start on Wednesday night, going 2 for 3 with a strikeout and two singles! Everybody go pick him up in your fantasy keeper leagues! Exclamation points! Okay. Now that we got that out of the way we can return to our regularly scheduled programming.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Christian Vazquez (C)

The funny thing about the Sox farm system and current roster is that it’s hard to find space for a player from Triple-A to come up to the big league club and garner significant playing time down the stretch. Obviously, September 1 will bring call-ups as the roster expands to 40 players, but the point remains: barring significant injuries, this roster is pretty set. Especially considering the deadline addition of Fernando Abad, the return of Craig Kimbrel and potential return of Koji Uehara (please come back, Koj), the bullpen is almost entirely established. And at least one or two guys will be down on playing time if and when Blake Swihart and Chris Young return to what is already a very crowded outfield following the addition of Benintendi.

One player who seems likely to be an exception and receive playing time is catcher Christian Vazquez. Vazquez demotion Triple-A was a casualty of the options attached to his contract, and, more notably, a casualty of Sandy León turning into Ted Williams. While Vazquez’s defense insulates him and continues to make him valuable at least to some degree, his bat hasn’t caught up to his glove. And when Ryan Hanigan returned from injury, the Sox had little choice but to option Vazquez to Pawtucket.

So, with all that said, let’s check in on his time in Rhode Island. At the plate, Christian Vazquez has, well, continued to be Christian Vazquez. Since being sent down in early July, the catcher has played in 17 games and staggered to a rough .203/.257/.297 slash line. He’s driven in five and managed just four extra-base hits.

Vazquez’s moneymaker always has been and will continue to be his abilities crouching behind the plate rather than standing at it. And, on that front, his arm is healthier than it has his whole career after recovering from Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015.

“I’m 100 percent. My arm is back, it’s healthy,” he said. “I’m working hard and I’m in the best shape of my career. Every day, I need to get better and I’m working to get better. But physically, I’m 100 percent.”

He’s not blowing smoke, either. Down at Pawtucket, he’s thrown out six out of nine would-be base stealers, according to John Wagner of MiLB.com.

So, while his bat continues to lag well behind a level that would make him a truly viable everyday catcher, it’s clear that Vazquez can still catch. Considering Sandy Leon’s somehow-still-above-1.000 OPS, how far that gets Vazquez this year remains to be seen. It seems likely that, at the very least, he’ll be at Fenway in September and get some playing time behind the dish. Given the comfort he seemed to have catching the knuckleball, maybe he returns to the role of catching Steven Wright for a month. Who knows.

It’s starting to look like we know exactly what he is, and unless snap throws down to first base are your favorite plays in baseball, Christian Vazquez is at least a little disappointing.

Obligatory (but quick) update on Yoan Moncada:

In his last 11 games, Moncada has hit baseballs at a more human clip. He’s batting just .217 with 18 strikeouts in 46 at-bats. Then he morphed back into the baseball alien that he is and fell a homer short of the cycle and scored four runs (!) in his most recent contest on Sunday. With Hanley Ramirez getting tests done on his wrist, we can theorize whether a Ramirez injury would mean a Moncada call-up. It doesn’t seem too likely, but there’s a chance we see Yoan at Fenway sooner than we thought.

The Rest of Double-A Portland: Luis Ysla (LHP)

With Benintendi gone, only two Red Sox top-20 prospects left in Portland are Moncada and shortstop Mauricio Dubon. Now, my colleague Cam Ellis stole Dubon for last week’s edition of Fenway’s Future, so in the interest of diversifying the piece, we’re looking into six-foot-one lefty reliever Ysla. The excellent SoxProspects.com lists Ysla as the team’s No. 23 prospect and third best at Double-A. He throws a hard fastball in the mid-90s, and uses it to rack up a hefty strikeout rate, sending 49 hitters back to the dugout in 46.2 innings.

While he projects pretty well and is highly regarded, Ysla has had some trouble this season, working to a 4.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his 32 outings. He got roughed up in a July 26 appearance, allowing three runs in one inning of work. That said, in his past six appearances, Ysla has only allowed runs in that single one. Hopefully by the time we next check in on Ysla I’ll have figured out how to correctly pronounce his name.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox took Trey Ball with the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft. Trey Ball might not be good.

The lefty has a 4.06 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the season in Salem. Apologies in advance for this terrible pun, but Ball has thrown more than his fair share of balls: he’s issued 53 walks in 84.1 innings.

The month of July, to put it kindly, was not a good one for Ball. In six starts, Ball has allowed four or more runs in five of them, working to an ERA of 8.17. Walks have continued to be an issue, as he’s surrendered 24 of them in 25.1 July innings.

Finally, everybody can breathe a little easier now. We made it through the August 1 trade deadline without Dave Dombrowski throwing a Cuban Kitchen Sink offer for Chris Sale or any other front-line starter. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi are still Red Sox prospects. Unless you’re not a weirdly big fan of Pat Light, you’d agree that the team’s farm system made it through the last two weeks of July effectively unscathed.

If you need me, I’ll be in my happy place imagining a Red Sox lineup that includes a Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Dustin Pedroia.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Roenis Elias (LHP) and Bryce Brentz (OF)

Roenis Elias was the second player the Red Sox acquired in the Wade Miley-Carson Smith trade with the Mariners this winter. Elias seemed to fit in among the Steven Wright, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson morass of a fifth spot in the rotation. But then his 10.45 ERA in the spring ensured he would start the year at Pawtucket, and unfortunately things have gotten only slightly better. Through his first 25 innings this season he had a 7.20 RA9 (4.83 FIP). Walking 19 batters while striking out 20 will do that to you. Clearly things have been rough for Elias, and just as his chances of getting another shot in the big leagues appeared to be slipping away, he went out and was pretty dominant in his most recent start. Over 7.2 innings (his longest of the season) he allowed only two runs (both solo home runs), walked nobody (!) and struck out 13 (!). According to a report from Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, Pawtucket pitching coach Bob Kipper noticed a rhythm issue in Elias’ delivery and worked with him to implement a freer approach with how he delivered the ball. Obviously, the early results from this adjustment are positive. If it is truly the change needed to get Elias back on track, maintaining consistency with the adjusted delivery will be crucial. If Elias is unstuck and can return to a moderate level of effectiveness, he provides the Red Sox an option other than Henry Owens to fill an open rotation spot.

Bryce Brentz suffered an oblique strain during Spring Training that kept him out of game action for the first two weeks of the season. Then once he got into the lineup it took some time to get things going. He spent the first part of the season at Double-A Portland, where he accumulated 48 plate appearances and posted a .200/.333/.325 line with two doubles and one home run. That is not a great line, but he was moved back up to Pawtucket and with his promotion came a bump in his offensive production. Over his 48 PA with the PawSox he has posted a .295/.354/.364 line, with three doubles but no home runs. While his batting average has seen the largest jump, largely a result of a correspondingly large rise in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his power is still lacking. His .068 isolated power this season at Pawtucket, will, if it continues, be the lowest mark of his career (among stints with at least 25 PA). Brentz is projected for considerable power, so this lack of it in the early going is slightly concerning. But it is only 48 PA, so there is not yet any real reason for alarm.

Brentz’s path to the big leagues appears murky. His hit tool is likely his ticket upward, but he needs to hit more than he has this year and did last year (.264 TAv), or at least get back to his lefty-mashing ways of 2014 when he posted a 1.039 OPS against lefties (.698 OPS against righties) if he is going to get called up. His defense is fine, but not outstanding to the point of needing to have him roam the Fenway lawn. According to his fielding runs above average number, which should be interpreted cautiously, he was an above average outfielder last year, but is back below average this year. Regardless, with a defender like Rusney Castillo, a utility guy like Brock Holt, and infielders like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart all ahead of Brentz on the outfield depth chart, Brentz’s chances to get back to the big leagues with Boston appear grim.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF)

When we last checked on Rusney Castillo, he was struggling at the plate, especially in the power department. That problem has not changed. He has nine hits over the last two weeks – all but one of which are singles – and has walked and struck out twice. Put it all together and his season line now sits at an unimpressive .256/.313/.308. While many (including me) thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was the all-glove, no-bat outfielder in the Red Sox system, at least Bradley Jr. hit at Pawtucket. The same cannot be said for Castillo. This is probably the last time I provide this sort of quick update on him.

Double-A Portland: Aaron Wilkerson (RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

In 2015, the relatively unheralded Aaron Wilkerson moved from Low-A to High-A to Double-A over the course of the season. In his 119.2 innings between Salem (79.0) and Portland (40.2), Wilkerson posted a remarkable 3.08 RA9, with a 2.13 FIP that suggested he was even better. This year he has picked up where he left off, dominating opponents and posting scoreless innings. To date, he has made seven starts for the Sea Dogs, five of which have been scoreless and only one was a clunker (3.1 innings, six runs, eight hits, three walks, four strikeouts). All told, in his 39.1 innings for the Sea Dogs he has struck out 46 batters while walking 12. His last time out, against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (the Blue Jays’ affiliate), he had arguably his best start of the season, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After reading about Wilkerson’s domination, it seems as though he is due for a promotion to Triple-A. Well, he had an opportunity earlier this season to start a game for Pawtucket and it did not go too well (4.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, one home run, three walks, five strikeouts). He was sent back to Portland after the outing and his first start back was the clunker I mentioned above; certainly an interesting week for Mr. Wilkerson. In any case, if he continues to impress at Double-A the way he has so far he will get another chance at the next level.

Two weeks ago I campaigned for Andrew Benintendi to get promoted to Portland so that I could watch him play. The promotion came too late for me to see him, but it came nevertheless. He has now played four games for the Sea Dogs and is still adjusting to the higher level. He has been held hitless, a feat that seemed unthinkable at High-A, in three of his four games and has struck out in five of his 16 PA. To put that in some perspective, he struck out just nine times in his 155 PA with Salem this year. Benintendi has done nothing but hit at an advanced level at each stop in his young career, so it seems likely that he will get back to raking soon.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh pick of the 2013 first-year player draft. Since then Ball has struggled to live up to his draft status in ways that other Red Sox seventh-overall picks have (see Benintendi, Andrew). At each of his three stops in the Red Sox system, Ball has posted an ERA over 4.50 with corresponding fielding independent numbers that suggest he has been that bad. Thus far in 2016, Ball has been effective in limiting runs from scoring (1.96 RA9), but his 4.20 FIP portends a return to previous runs allowed marks, as do his career low .203 BABIP and career high 84.8% strand rate. Basically, he has been navigating trouble by having opponents hit it where they are, which probably won’t last.

Generally, Ball’s major issue is walking batters. In 23.0 innings this year he has allowed nine walks (3.51 BB/9). Last year it was even worse, as he allowed 60 walks in his 129.1 innings pitched for Salem (4.18 BB/9). He has to reduce his walk totals if he is going to succeed and move up in the system. In his most recent outing, Ball kept the opponents, Kansas City’s High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, off the scoreboard, scattered five hits, and only walked two batters over a career high seven innings. What’s more is that he struck out six batters, the third highest total in his young career. Ideally this start is an indication he is headed in the right direction, but it is one start and the Blue Rocks are the weakest offensive team in the Carolina League this year.

Updates on Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers:

Yoan Moncada, like his old teammate Benintendi, is likely to get a promotion soon. He is still dominating pitchers at his level to the tune of a .324/.454/.510 line, and has 29 stolen bases in 35 tries.

Just when it seemed Rafael Devers was coming out of his early season struggles, he had another rough couple of weeks going .182/.234/.205 over his most recent 47 PA. His season line is currently 39 percent worse than average, so he has a lot of work to do if he is going to join his fellow Big Three teammates in Portland.

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

The Greenville Drive team’s offense has been great in the early going this season, and that is despite top-prospect Luis Alexander Basabe struggling to consistently produce. Basabe was signed by the Red Sox, along with his brother Luis Alejandro Basabe, in 2012. Luis Alexander spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in rookie ball, before getting assigned to Lowell last year for his age-18 season. At each level he has produced solid offensive numbers, but has had difficulty thus far at Low-A. His season line is currently .213/.265/.418, which is a bit of a strange line that comes as a result of half of his 26 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, four triples, four home runs). Regardless, a .213 batting average is ugly, and mixing it with a lack of walks is also concerning. He clearly needs to develop better plate discipline, work to earn more walks and focus on attacking pitches in the strike zone. His combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and below-typical BABIP (.282) could suggest that the low batting average comes as a result of him often making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which tend to have poorer outcomes. Without access to his swing and batted ball data (i.e., O-Swing%, O-Contact%, exit velocity) I cannot address this hypothesis directly, but the poor plate discipline numbers point to it being plausible. Regardless, given his age, Basabe will spend at least this season with the Drive, so he will have plenty of time and many opportunities to develop into a more well-rounded hitter.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

As a silver-ish lining to the 2012 chicken-and-beer collapse, the Red Sox picked as high as seventh in a draft for the first time in 2013 since selecting Trot Nixon in 1993. Their prize was Trey Ball, a 6’6” high school outfielder and southpaw who signed for an under-slot $2.75M.

Now 21 years old and with a second full season of experience as a pro, Ball is still more project than projectable. And while the Red Sox probably didn’t expect that he’d be anchoring the rotation in 2016, they probably did expect that he’d figure in somewhere in the team’s top ten prospects at this point (spoiler alert).

What Went Right in 2016

The profile that led the Red Sox to gamble on Ball is still intact. Mixed into his 4.73 ERA in 25 starts overall were a handful of strong games, especially in the middle of the year, when Ball seemed to take a step forward. In June, Ball pitched to a 1.59 ERA in 28.1 innings, including his longest start of the year (6.2 IP) and a dominant performance in which the Indiana native punched out nine hitters in the Cleveland organization.

The BP prospect staff checked in with Ball when things looked like they were starting to click, posting a mixed bag review that raised an eyebrow in a good way. The staff saw a delivery that was repeated more consistently than in his first season—an important development for a pitcher whose main shortcoming has been command. The 88-91 mph fastball would leave Ball a tick below average for a major league lefty, but the 92 mph he flashed would be average or better. And while Ball’s loopy curve was still inconsistent, he showed something tighter at times, a pitch that could finally be thrown for strikes, earlier in the count.

What Went Wrong in 2015

You kinda sorta did the math in your head: if Ball had a 1.59 ERA in June and a 4.73 ERA overall, the rest of Ball’s year was less than inspiring. That 5.61 ERA (I know you didn’t actually do the math) was probably a better reflection of who Ball was on the mound last year: an athlete with an unathletic delivery and very iffy command who sometimes looked the part but couldn’t count on his fastball or his out pitch.

There are pitchers in the majors who get by with a walk rate only slightly better than Ball’s 4.18 BB/9 last year, but there’s every reason to think he was at High-A last year specifically to work on his command; it wasn’t a pitching style, but a technical problem. There’s still plenty of time for Ball to put it together, but mastering his own body will not necessarily get easier as it changes.

BP’s Chris Crawford wrote of Ball’s 2016 that his “secondary offerings haven’t made any real progress.”

The very real potential for improvement is great—few mortals have the ceiling that Ball still has right now. Having plenty of time to improve, though, doesn’t make up for making essentially no progress at all in 2016. In high school, Ball had a useable curveball and a changeup with potential; BP’s Chris Crawford wrote of Ball’s 2016 that his “secondary offerings haven’t made any real progress.” As Crawford noted, “[a]dd in well-below-average control and command, and you get a guy who is closer to non-prospect than prospect.”

Outlook for 2016

Ball doesn’t need to make The Leap to stay on the prospect radar a year from now—he just needs some of that “real progress.” The Red Sox bet big that Ball’s athleticism would allow him to overcome his rawness, and that’s still what they’ll be waiting on as the 2016 season gets underway. Time is not necessarily on the team’s side with Ball, who may not be moved up a rung to Double-A in 2016 until he shows better command. The Red Sox will not have to add Ball to the 40-man next November, but his brief time in rookie ball in 2013 made that season a “qualified season” for purposes of the Rule 5 draft—he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2017 at the ripe age of 23 unless he gets protected.

It’s hard to continue to bet on a pitcher who needs to make several kinds of improvements at once, but is that what it would take for Ball to be relevant for the Red Sox? The report last June, days before he became old enough to drink, noted that Ball’s 6’6” frame still offered plenty of room to add strength. When Ball grows into his body, even a small spike in velocity could make him a candidate for messy but competent innings.

That same process could also pay real dividends for Ball in terms of control, not just because the strike zone would become a more hospitable place to work. Control problems seem to stem from difficulty repeating a delivery when tired, as the prospect staff wrote in June that Ball struggled to repeat as he got deeper into the game. It all adds up to back-burner status for Ball, but the right kind of progress will be physical—and that could show up on the mound well before we see it in the stat sheet.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstull.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket

Player of the year: Deven Marrero, INF — This selection is telling of the kind of year it was in Pawtucket. The team’s lineup this season consisted primarily of major league castoffs such as Allen Craig and Jackie Bradley Jr., and then there was Marrero trying to earn his first big league callup. Although his numbers weren’t impressive — a .250 true average and .309 wOBA in Triple-A isn’t exactly major league-caliber — the 2012 first-round pick did enough to earn multiple opportunities with the Red Sox this season and should see more as we get deeper into September. Marrero was at his best at the plate toward the end of the season, hitting .306 over his final 24 minor league games, and by playing shortstop, third and second base continued to show the kind of defensive versatility that’s invaluable to a big league club.

Pitcher of the year: Brian Johnson, LHP — This distinction could’ve just as easily gone to Henry Owens. However, Johnson’s season-long consistency stood out in 2015. The 24-year-old made 18 starts in Triple-A, posting a 3.22 FIP and 8.44 K/9 while giving up more than two runs in just four of those starts. The highlight of Johnson’s year came May 29 when he tossed six perfect innings and struck out a season-high nine batters. He did get one forgettable spot start with Boston in July before returning to Triple-A, but the lefty’s season ended abruptly Aug. 2 when he experienced elbow tightness in the fourth inning of what would be his final start of the year. The Red Sox shut Johnson down soon after. Although there was no ligament damage found, it’s unclear what kind of impact the injury will have on him going into next season.

Biggest surprise: Dayan Diaz, RHP — Diaz’s major league dream seemed all but over after an ugly 2013 season in the Cubs organization. But his two years in the Sox’s system have revitalized his career, with this season being his most impressive yet. The righty posted a 1.94 ERA and 7.76 K/9 in 27 appearances out of the bullpen for Pawtucket, using his hard fastball to overpower hitters and a late-breaking slider to keep them off-balance. The 26-year-old’s performance this season propelled his stock within the system and could make him a viable candidate for a spot in next season’s Red Sox bullpen. Diaz’s command starts to fade as he pitches later into games, but he has the type of stuff to be a serviceable back-end arm out of the bullpen.

Biggest disappointment: Garin Cecchini, 3B/1B/OF — Unfortunately for Cecchini, this was an easy choice to make. One year after making his major league debut, Cecchini endured the worst season of his professional career, finishing with a .209 TAv and a 21.3 percent strikeout rate. He did show signs of a turnaround at the plate in August and eventually earned a brief callup to the big leagues again, but the overall product was ugly, especially after a brutal first two-plus months of the season. Cecchini dabbled with left field this season along with his primary spot at third base, but that was about all he did well in 2015. At 24, Cecchini still has time to turn his career back around, but there’s no doubt this year was a major setback.

Double-A Portland

Player of the year: Sam Travis, 1B — Travis’ 2015 got off to an impressive start in High-A Salem, and he hardly slowed down when he was promoted to Portland in late June. The first baseman played 65 games in Portland, sporting a .297 TAv and .376 wOBA, and improving his BB% to 11.7 percent. Travis didn’t take long to adjust Double-A. He struggled over the first week, but hit .318 from July 2 onward, proving his rapid ascension through the system is no fluke. Travis was drafted in the second round out of Indiana in 2014 and has been impressive in his professional career to this point. If Travis can continue to hit at this rate and improve his power, there’s no reason to think he can’t — at 22 — earn a promotion to Triple-A at some point next season.

Pitcher of the year: Jorge Marban, RHP — Pat Light may be the bigger name with greater potential, but Marban’s Double-A numbers were much more impressive over more innings of work. The 26-year-old wasted no time proving he belongs in the Red Sox’s organization after pitching in the Independent League and in Australia from 2012 through 2014. Marban made eight appearances for High-A Salem before being promoted to Portland, where he posted a 1.36 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 24 relief appearances. Those efforts earned him a callup to Triple-A in mid-August and have him on his way to a shot at the big leagues.

Biggest surprise: Marco Hernandez, INF — Hernandez was nothing more than compensation for dumping Felix Doubront off to the Cubs. Expectations were never high for the 23-year-old shortstop, but boy has he shattered those bestowed upon him. Hernandez boasted a .290 TAv, .375 wOBA and led the team in OPS (.832). Meanwhile, he was an everyday shortstop in a farm system loaded with talented infielders. By mid-July, Hernandez was playing in Triple-A Pawtucket, where he’s yet to match his Double-A production offensively. Hernandez has still been solid defensively, however. He’s seen time at second and third base in Pawtucket and has increased his utility potential.

Biggest disappointment: Manuel Margot, OF — It may be unfair to judge a 20-year-old for poor production in Double-A, but given the expectations and where Margot ranks among prospects within the organization, it’s still a disappointment. The fact that he was even promoted from High-A in June was surprising enough. He posted a respectable .273 TAv with Salem, but certainly didn’t seem ready for bigger challenges. Things, of course, only got worse in Portland as he finished the season with a .268 TAv while his K% ballooned to 12.8 percent over 63 games. The good news is he finished the season strong, batting .325 (29-for-89) over the final 22 games, so his status as a top-flight prospect is safely intact.

High-A Salem

Player of the year: Wendell Rijo, 2B — Rijo powered his way into this spot with a strong finish to 2015. The 20-year-old second baseman hit .283 after Aug. 3 to raise his TAv to .264 for the season and make his case for a promotion by some point next year. Rijo isn’t a standout prospect, but he’s young and has plenty of room to grow. One thing that could help Rijo going forward is limiting his strikeouts. He sported a .321 BABIP this season, but also struck out at a 20.7 percent rate. If he can make more consistent contact and improve his plate discipline the rest of his numbers should go up as well. But that’s just one criticism. Overall, there’s much like about Rijo and this season was a step in the right direction.

Pitcher of the year: Ty Buttrey, RHP — This was an important season for Buttrey. The righty was signed to a $1 million overslot deal after being drafted in the fourth round in 2012, but had yet to live up to the promise that came with it. Buttrey, at 22 years old, finally changed that in 2015. He made four dominant starts in Low-A Greenville before being promoted to High-A, and continued to pitch well, finishing with a 3.71 FIP over 21 starts in Salem. One slight on Buttrey heading into the season was that he had yet to fill into his 6-foot-6 frame. He wasn’t exactly overpowering hitters this season — his 6.30 K/9 was down from previous seasons — but his command improved and his walks decreased.

Biggest surprise: Aaron Wilkerson, RHP — Wilkerson is 26 years old and threw his first minor league pitch in 2014, yet he’s quickly become a player worth watching over the coming years. He was signed by the Red Sox out of the independent leagues during the 2014 season. Since then he’s shown the kind of command and strikeout ability that could one day turn him into a major league reliever. The righty started this year in Low-A Greenville, but after five appearances was promoted to Salem and shined, sporting a 1.90 FIP and 9.68 K/P over 17 appearances, 12 of which were starts. He was at his best in May when he posted a 0.71 ERA in 25.1 innings in which he allowed just 11 hits and six walks. Performances such as that earned him a promotion to Double-A Portland in August. He finished with a 2.58 FIP over seven starts.

Biggest disappointment: Trey Ball, LHP — It’s too early to judge Ball as a 21-year-old prospect, especially after just two full seasons as a pro. But Red Sox’s fans concerns over the 2013 seventh overall pick’s performance thus far are justified. Ball’s struggles in 2014 were well-documented. This season was actually worse. Ball owned a 5.13 FIP over 25 starts, and saw an increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts compared to 2014. And unlike last year, he didn’t get better as the season progressed. Ball was solid in his final outing of the season, allowing two runs and striking out six over five innings. However, he posted a 10.80 ERA in his six starts prior. The lefty still has time to fill out his lanky 6-foot-6 frame and further develop his secondary pitches, particularly his curveball, which he started throwing as a junior in high school, but he has much to prove going into next season.

Low-A Greenville

Player of the year: Rafael Devers, 3B — Watching Devers, at 18 years old, blossom into one of the top prospects in the Red Sox’s organization was fun. The third baseman made a name for himself after a scalding hot start to the season in which he hit .382 through June 1. Since then his stock has risen. He garnered much attention on the interwebs and even drew comparisons to Robinson Cano — not bad company at such a young age. Devers eventually leveled out, finishing with a .282 TAv and .352 wOBA, and struck out at a 16.5 percent rate, but there’s no denying his potential. His solid build, fluid swing and plus power make for a nice offensive player. He his a defensive liability, so perhaps a move to first base or to a full-time DH role is in his future.

Pitcher of the year: Michael Kopech, RHP — Kopech’s season was cut short due to a 50-game suspension for illegal use of a stimulant, but it was an exceptional year for the 19-year-old nonetheless. The 2014 first-round pick showed overpowering stuff that could one day put him atop a major league rotation, posting a 9.69 K/9 to go with a 3.34 FIP over 15 starts. He allowed just two total runs over 15 innings in the three starts before his suspension, and gave up no more than three runs — a number he reached in just three outings — in all of his starts. Losing Kopech for the final 50 games was a disappointment for Greenville, but shouldn’t be a setback for the righty as he tries to make quick work of the minor leagues.

Biggest surprise: Javier Guerra, SS — Guerra entered the season as a mid-tier Red Sox prospect, but his value rose considerably after an impressive 2015. It was well-established that Guerra is an outstanding shortstop with good range, instincts and plus arm strength. But his bat was supposed to be his downfall. Well, turns out he can hit, too. Guerra far exceeded offensive expectations both from an average and power standpoint, posting a .280 TAv to go with 15 home runs and a .171 ISO. Guerra’s power numbers stood out the most given he’s still undersized. And at 19 years old, he’s bound to add more strength.

Biggest disappointment: Michael Chavis, 3B — It was a rough first year for Chavis, the team’s top pick in 2014. He struggled both in the field and at the plate this season. But especially at the plate. Chavis held a .244 TAv and struck out at an absurd 30.6 percent rate — 30.6 percent!!! — the latter being by far the most alarming. It’s something that needs to change in the coming years. He did hit 16 home runs and finished with a .182 ISO, but that swing-for-the-fences approach hindered his overall production. Chavis needs to shorten his swing and take more of a line-drive approach in order to improve his baffling average and strikeout numbers.

Top photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Edwin Escobar, LHP and Marco Hernandez, SS

Edwin Escobar’s first season in the Red Sox organization has been a frustrating one at best. The left-hander, acquired from the Giants last summer in the Jake Peavy trade, was placed on the disabled list in spring training with inflammation in his left elbow, keeping him sidelined for the first two months of the season. The injury was a major setback for the 23-year-old, who spent the spring vying for a spot on the major league roster. Escobar returned to Pawtucket in mid-June, and has looked far from major-league ready. After starting throughout his minor-league career, the Venezuelan has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season. The results have been disastrous. He’s made 10 appearances in Triple-A, tossing 15 innings and posting a career-worst 6.51 FIP and 4.20 BB/9.

Escobar has never posted particularly impressive numbers throughout his career, but his performance thus far has been particularly discouraging. He’s struggled with command of his fastball, and his secondary pitches still need work. Escobar has looked better in recent outings, however. On Friday, he tossed two scoreless innings of relief, his second scoreless outing in his last three appearances. That’s a positive step from where he was three weeks ago. At 23, he’s still young given where he is in the minor-league system, and he’s probably not far from a shot at the majors, either, as he made a pair of brief appearances for the Red Sox last season. With the 2015 team in freefall and in possession of a shaky bullpen, Escobar’s next audition should come at the end of this season, when he can try to prove himself a reliable lefty reliever.

The last time we highlighted Marco Hernandez in this series, he was tearing up Double-A Portland while in the midst of the hottest streak of his career. The shortstop has yet to carry that over to Triple-A. He’s struck out 11 times in nine games since his promotion July 16, sporting a .223 true average and .285 wOBA. Hernandez joined the Red Sox with little fanfare this season. The 22-year-old was the player to be named later from the Cubs in exchange for Felix Doubront, and with a gluttony of noteworthy shortstops within the organization, he appeared to be an afterthought. All he’s done since is put up the best offensive numbers of his professional career through 68 games in Portland, earning him quick call-up to Pawtucket.

For a player not known for his bat, Hernandez’s struggles aren’t much of a surprise. He’s considered a below-average contact hitter whose best assets are his speed and his glove. Now that he’s adjusting to a new level where he’s facing pitching closer to major-league caliber, the numbers have naturally tailed off. Hernandez has plenty of time this season to adjust. But a return to late-June, early-July form seems improbable.

Double-A Portland: Sam Travis, 1B

One player who has adjusted well to his promotion is Sam Travis. After collecting just three hits in his first 38 plate appearances in Double-A, Travis has turned things around with a scalding hot July, hitting .349 with a .406 on-base percentage for the month thus far and raising his TAv to .277 with Portland. He’s continued to do what he’s done well since being drafted out of Indiana in the second round last season: make contact. Travis is a strong contact hitter with good plate discipline and a solid approach, which has been evident as he’s positioned himself to move quickly through the organization. In fact, that ability to work counts and make contact appears to be improving, as his K% is down to 9.2 percent through 28 Double-A games – his lowest professional mark. Travis’ ascension through the system has been impressive. He started in Lowell last June and has seen three promotions in just over 14 months. If he continues moving at this rate, the 21-year-old could make a pitch for another move upward next season.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball, LHP and Cole Sturgeon, OF

Trey Ball

Professional baseball continues to be a struggle for Trey Ball. Since being drafted by the Sox in the first round in 2013, the lefty has endured nothing but inconsistency as he’s tried to hone his command and his poise and continue to mature physically. Ball has experienced some success in High-A Salem this season – he tossed three scoreless outings in a four-game stretch in the middle of the year. However, it’s not a pace he’s ready to keep up. He has a good, hard fastball with plus potential, but has struggled to locate his pitches. Same goes for his changeup, which in the low-80s with late movement is a nice contrast to his heater. Right now he’s primarily a two-pitch starter as he continues to refine his curveball.

The Red Sox knew in Ball they were getting a raw pitcher who may take some time to progress. His numbers in Salem speak to that as he owns a 5.21 FIP and a 3.96 BB/9 through 19 starts. Aside from his command, his next biggest problem is his habit of surrendering home runs. He’s given up homers in three of his last four and five of his last seven outings, upping his HR/9 to 1.14. At 6-foot-6, 185 pounds, Ball is tall and lanky, and in need of added strength and size. That addition alone will aid him as he tries to find consistency in coming seasons.

On July 22, Cole Sturgeon was demoted to High-A Salem after 30 games in Double-A Portland. It was long overdue. The outfielder had a mere .205 TAv in Portland, striking out at a 19.6 percent rate. A 2014 10th round pick out of Louisville, Sturgeon started 2015 in Salem after a strong rookie season, and was promoted after a hot streak at the end of May in which he went on a nine-game hitting streak and collected hits in 11 of 12 games. Now Sturgeon, a contact hitter with a strong arm in the outfield, is back down but once again on a roll, riding a five-game hitting streak that’s carried into his first three games in High-A. Sturgeon sports just a .239 TAv in Salem, but he’s lately had little trouble against pitching at that level. Perhaps with enough time he’ll make similar adjustments against Double-A pitching.

Low-A Greenville: J.T. Watkins, C

J.T. Watkins is 25 years old, but his professional journey is a relatively new one. The catcher was drafted by the Red Sox in the 2012 10th round out of Army, but is just seeing playing time this season after missing two full years of development due to his mandatory military commitment. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes in his feature on Watkins in spring training, the odds are heavily stacked against the catcher as he’s trying to become the first West Point graduate to make it to the major leagues. Watkins does have a few things going for him, however. For one, his father is Red Sox scout Danny Watkins. And two, he’s a talented catcher with a strong arm and leadership ability behind the plate. Watkins started the season in High-A Salem, but after a pair of hitless efforts wound up in Greenville. The results have been promising for the catcher since the demotion. He’s played just seven games since July 10, but has hit well when given the opportunity. Watkins is currently on a six-game hitting streak, sporting a .416 wOBA so far. The trouble for him is finding playing time behind the three other catchers on the roster.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, and Pat Light, RHP

It might seem odd that Jackie Bradley Jr. is still on a list of Fenway’s Future players, but that is the case as he has remained at Pawtucket despite a need for him in Boston. The reason for keeping Bradley Jr. in the minor leagues is unclear, though last week Bryan Grosnick outlined several potential motives. Regardless, he is still playing everyday at Pawtucket, and playing very well. It is no secret that Bradley Jr.’s primary issue in his limited stints in the major leagues has been hitting. In his 543 major league plate appearances, almost a whole season’s worth, he has a .192/.266/.273 line, which equates to a .203 TAv. It was never anticipated that he would be a star at the plate, but that line is ugly. What makes the matter really puzzling is that through 631 plate appearances at Triple-A he had a .286/.362/.445 line, which is roughly a .301 TAv. The jump to the major leagues is a big one, but that drastic a change in performance seems odd. Still, it really seems like Bradley Jr. does not have much more to learn at the minor league level.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox appear to have seen enough of him flailing away at the major league level and intend on keeping him in Pawtucket for the foreseeable future. He is the best defensive outfielder in the organization and maybe in the game, but cannot break through with the bat to hold a major league roster spot. Now, while he does not have much to learn at Triple-A, keeping him there could be part of an effort to make him look shiny to potential trade partners, or part of a longer term plan of getting him ready for a spot in the major league outfield in 2016. Shane Victorino will be out of the mix next year but things will still be crowded with Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Hanley Ramirez all likely to keep their spots.

Pat Light is moving up the ranks.

While Bradley Jr. is having trouble earning a promotion, Pat Light was promoted from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Pawtucket last week. Light’s move to the bullpen has served as a catalyst for his ascent through the minor leagues. Earlier this year I checked in on Light when he had struck out a third of the 27 batters. Well, not much has changed in his performance over the next 91. He posted a 27.1 strikeout rate for Portland, allowing fewer than one runner to reach base per inning pitched, and that is even with difficulty in walking batters (9.3 walk rate). Reports are that he has ditched his main secondary pitches in favor of his splitter, which mixed with his mid-90s fastball has been very effective. If Light can maintain his velocity and effectiveness in Pawtucket he may be due for a promotion to the big leagues later this year. The major league team could use a hard-throwing reliever who can work some of the 6^th and 7^th innings ahead of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. That pitcher could also come in the form of Joe Kelly and his 96 mile-an-hour fastball, but the Sox seem content to keep trying him as a starter, so help in the ‘pen will need to come from elsewhere.

Double-A Portland: Oscar Tejeda, IF/OF

Of the players with at least 100 plate appearances for the Sea Dogs, Tejeda is the fourth best hitter by wRC+ (111). He has spent time in the Red Sox, Pirates, and Nationals organizations, getting all the way to Triple-A in the Pirates system in 2013. His .304/.328/.415 line in 180 PA this year in Portland is impressive, but is really a bit of an outlier for him at the double-A level, as he has previously posted seasons of 75 wRC+, 76, and 39 (in 492, 221, and 57 PA, respectively). On his fourth trip through the level, at age 25, he seems to have figured things out a bit, but as I said it is the clear outlier and there is still time for our old friend regression to take hold of things. With all that said, it is not his bat that makes Tejeda interesting, it is his positional versatility. At Baseball Prospectus he is listed as a left fielder, at FanGraphs he is listed as a second baseman/shortstop, and at MiLB.com he is listed as a third baseman. The lack of consistent listing reflects how he has moved around this season in Portland. According to the lineups posted at SoxProspects.com he has started two games at short, 19 at third, 11 in left field, and six in right field. If he is going to get a ticket to the big leagues it will be due to this ability to play defense all over the diamond, although even with that a future major league roster spot seems unlikely.

High-A Salem: Manuel Margot, OF, Trey Ball, LHP, and Williams Jerez, LHP

Margot is a top-five prospect in the Red Sox system with all five tools, already earning the ‘honor’ of being mentioned in many Cole Hamels trade rumours. His season has been of the up and down sort. In April he posted an .891 OPS, and avoided striking out in his first 69 plate appearances. Then May rolled around and Margot’s performance went down with it, posting a .310 OPS in 37 plate appearances. Some of this downturn was likely a result of the shoulder injury that eventually landed him on the disabled list for the last few weeks of May. The good news is that since returning from the DL he has been back to his April ways at the plate (.870 OPS so far in June). He has yet to draw a walk since coming back, which is problematic, but he is still striking out at a wonderfully low rate (4.3%).

The Red Sox had the seventh overall pick in the 2015 first-year player draft that was held last Monday, a spot at which they picked in the 2013 draft when they selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball from New Castle Chrysler High School in Indiana. Unfortunately, thus far Ball has not lived up to his status as a first-round pick. In 100.0 innings at Low-A Greenville last year, he had a 4.68 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and a less than exciting 68:39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite the rough year at Low-A he was advanced to High-A to start this season, and things have not gone much better. In 58.2 innings this year he has a 3.99 ERA, 5.02 FIP, with an ugly 37:25 K:BB. In fact, he has walked more batters than he has struck out in four of his 11 starts, but struck out nine and only walked two in his most recent start, which is hopefully a step in the right direction. Overall, not a lot has gone well for Mr. Ball. At 21 he is still somewhat young for the level, but this is not at all the sort of thing that the organization wants to see from a top-level draft pick.

Williams Jerez is an interesting story, as he does not come to pitching naturally, but rather is a converted outfielder. After struggling to hit in his first three seasons in the Red Sox system, Jerez became a pitcher in 2014 and his potential future now looks brighter. In 2014, between rookie ball and short season A-ball, he struck out 40 of the 150 batters he faced, only allowed 14 runs, and did not allow a home run. He started this year at low-A Greenville, pitched 39.1 excellent innings (2.06 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 43:10 K:BB), and recently earned himself a promotion to a Salem. Given that Jerez is still new to pitching – he only has 77.0 innings under his belt – it should not be a real surprise that he is still a work in progress. His best bet to advance through the system is as a reliever where he can rear back and fire his mid-90s fastball most of the time and avoid needing to develop command of secondary pitches and the ability to navigate through a lineup multiple times. His progress is worth tracking.

Low-A Greenville: Rafael Devers, 3B

Rafael Devers is an impressive young player.

The Greenville team has a number of interesting players, and chief among them is 18-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers, in his first season of A-ball after crushing things in rookie ball, has been tremendous with the bat. Through his first 200 plate appearances he was hitting .321/.354/.455, with 18 extra-base hits. While he is only walking in 4.5% of his plate appearances, which is a huge drop from the rate he had in rookie ball, he is hitting well enough and for enough power that the lack of walks is not really affecting his value. He will need to demonstrate more of a command on the strike zone as he progresses through the system, or it will stall his advancement. For now, though, he can just focus on continuing to dominate his older opponents.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson, LHP and Deven Marrero, SS

Brian Johnson was just highlighted in last week’s post, but it’s hard to ignore Friday’s dominance and where it leaves him among the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects. Pitching in place of Eduardo Rodriguez, who made his major league debut Thursday night, the southpaw struck out nine batters over six perfect innings to lead the PawSox to a 1-0 win over Louisville. Johnson worked under a pitch limit and was pulled after 74 pitches. According to a tweet by Alex Speier, Friday was Johnson’s third perfect outing of his professional career.

Johnson has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts and in all but two of his 10 outings this season, and he’s upped his K/9 to 9.27. The lefty should be next in line to get called up upon the next Sox starter implosion. Although it’s unlikely Johnson will match Rodriguez’s dazzling debut, it’s not unreasonable to think the Red Sox will be more inclined to give another young arm a shot thanks to Rodriguez’s effort Thursday.

Deven Marrero’s adjustment to Triple-A pitching through half of last season and this season has been a difficult one. This season alone he’s hitting .252/.318/.364 with a 25.1 K%. Although was drafted in the first round in 2012 more so for his athleticism and arm strength at shortstop than for his bat, Marrero hasn’t shown the offensive effectiveness necessary to be major league ready in the near future. However, as Marrero has quick hands and a compact swing and the potential to be a competent line-drive hitter. In fact, he’s shown improvement at the plate as he’s in the midst of a five-game hitting streak in which he’s gone 6-for-19 (.315). But the strikeout rate is still a glaring flaw that is likely to get worse at the next level.

Marrero is projected to be a traditional everyday shortstop. He’s a plus fielder – although eight errors through 41 games at short isn’t encouraging – who will be a bottom-of-the-order hitter throughout his career. But in a perfect world for the Red Sox, Marrero will never be an everyday shortstop in Boston – that’s Xander Bogaerts’ job to lose. The 24-year-old’s seen time at both second base and third base, but those positions are locked up long-term with Dustin Pedroia’s recent extension and Pablo Sandoval being signed through 2019. Marrero may be a trade chip more than anything else.

Double-A Portland: Carlos Asuaje, 2B/3B

The Red Sox appear to have another super utility man – Brock Holt 2.0? – in Carlos Asuaje. He’s primarily a second baseman, but has also played at third base and throughout the outfield this season. His versatility will likely be his ticket to the big leagues given his average everyday hitting and fielding potential. Asuaje caught fire over Memorial Day weekend, going 6-for-12 with two homers, four runs and four RBIs in three games. But the 23-year-old has struggled since, going 1-for-13 and striking out three times in his last game Thursday.  Asuaje won’t be asked to put up ridiculous offensive numbers, however. At least not in this organization. He has a solid 12.9 percent walk rate to go with his .372 wOBA and .313 BABIP, which is good enough to suggest he’s going to advance through the minors in the next few years. The only uncertainty is when and where his opportunity will come.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball, LHP

Trey Ball’s professional career has had an underwhelming start. The 2013 first-round pick struggled with his control and was hit hard in rookie ball in 2013 and Greenville last season. He hasn’t been much better in High-A, sporting a 5.47 FIP and 1.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio through nine starts this season. Ball showed signs of potential before another setback in his most recent outing. After allowing just one run over his last 10.1 innings, Ball was tagged for five runs (three earned) on eight hits Friday night, surrendering three walks and a homer.

It’s hard to give up on the 20-year-old so quickly despite the difficulties. The Red Sox probably feel the same way. Ball is a tall left-hander with decent fastball velocity and an improving changeup. He’s 6-foot-6 with a 185-pound frame that is bound to fill out with proper training. Ball’s biggest issue is his command, as his 3.64 BB/9 suggests. But that’s a fixable problem for a young, athletic pitcher.

Single-A Greenville: Michael Kopech, RHP

Michael Kopech may be the most powerful pitching prospect in the Sox’ minor league system. He possesses an explosive fastball that tops out at 98 miles-per-hour and a hard slider to put away hitters. He uses those two pitches primarily to get swings and misses, while his changeup still needs work. As Alex Skillin wrote last month, these attributes make Kopech a high-ceiling pitching prospect. Kopech has been especially overpowering as of late, averaging seven strikeouts over his last three outings and giving up two runs over 14 innings. One of the notable concerns about the 19-year-old heading into 2015 was his command. Kopech posted a 5.93 BB/9 over eight starts in rookie ball last year. He’s down to 3.03 walks per nine innings through his first nine Single-A starts, boasting a 3.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the process.

Command will continue to be a work in progress for Kopech. But like with Ball, it’s something that comes over time with young pitchers of his potential. Besides, when you’re striking out 29.2 percent of the batters you face, any criticism can shrugged off as nitpicking for now.

Photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP and Rusney Castillo, OF

After hurling 37 innings with a 0.86 ERA and a 2.26 FIP in Portland last season, Rodriguez hasn’t missed a beat this year, dominating Triple-A competition to the tune of a 2.86 ERA in 34.2 innings pitched. The key for Rodriguez ever since coming over to the Red Sox system was his dramatic improvement in limiting free passes. Rodriguez dropped his BB/9 from 3.16 to 1.93 after the Andrew Miller trade in 2014, and it’s gone ever farther down in 2015, as it now sits at a stellar 1.30. The southpaw has developed his secondary pitches very well over the last calendar year, allowing him to hit the bottom of the zone much more consistently, generate (slightly) more grounders and avoid those long fly balls.

While he’s been great in Pawtucket as a whole, his recent games have left something to be desired. Against Columbus and Indianapolis, Rodriguez only registered five innings per and gave up six runs combined in those two starts – matching his total runs allowed from all of April (24.2 IP). One can surmise that’s why Steven Wright was chosen over Rodriguez for the spot start on Sunday, but considering the need for back-end starting pitching on the major league squad, Rodriguez is a good bet to be called up sooner rather than later.

It seems like you hear nothing but great things about Rusney Castillo, but for all of his stats in Pawtucket, the Red Sox have good reason to not think he’s ready for the majors just yet. Despite his .308/.361/.462 in 16 games, Castillo has been described as looking out of sync in the field and in “spring-training mode”. Alex Speier described a three-inning sequence in a game against Indianapolis in which Castillo made several mistakes, such as getting caught drifting too far off of 3rd base and timing a slide so badly that he rolled his ankle on the base itself. Castillo is a great player and he’s ticketed for right field in Fenway sometime this season, but after missing a big chunk of spring training and April with oblique and shoulder injuries, he still needs more playing time until he gets the call.

Double-A Portland: Carlos Asuaje, 2B

What Asuaje lacks in power, he makes up for in plate discipline. The infielder has put up .408 mark in Portland so far, and has taken 24 walks to just 21 strikeouts. He’s a very tough out, as Asuaje makes good contact and his great eye at the plate will make pitchers work. While he can get to first base with no issue, it’s getting to second base in the same inning that’s the problem – Asuaje seldom attempts to steal, and any semblance of the power he showed last year is notably absent now. Between Salem and Greenville last year, Asuaje slugged .526, and so far with Portland, it’s a sub-par .353 with a .084 ISO. Nevertheless, that’s still good for a .294 TAv, and his versatility in the field will make him a good utility player down the line.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball, RHP and Wendell Rijo, 2B

One thing you have to understand about a pitcher like Trey Ball is that he was –  and still is – pretty raw, even for a first-round pick. In Salem, he’s been improving on a few fronts, such as inducing more grounders and improving his fastball command, but he hasn’t taken a major leap just yet. His changeup is his premier pitch, but it needs a good fastball to set it up, and while Ball’s got one velocity-wise, he currently has mediocre-to-decent command with it. If that discourages you, don’t fret: Ball is only 21 years old, has a tall, projectable frame, and is still on a good developmental track. Sometimes, high school pitchers just need more patience than anything.

Wendell Rijo is finding it hard to play to his strengths so far in Salem. He can work a walk and has good speed on the bases, but just cannot get on base in 2015. A .298 OBP limits the young prospect, but when you see that he blew through Greenville with a .273 TAv at just 18 years old, some leeway needs to be given. Rijo checks in at a light 170 pounds, and will need to add some strength to augment his game as he moves forward. Glimpses of his decent gap power can be seen in Salem this season, as he’s hit ten doubles, a triple and two homers in 22 games so far. Rijo projects to be a regular at the keystone, provided he can hit and work on his fielding mechanics.

Low-A Greenville: Yoan Moncada, INF

This isn’t a recap of what he’s done, but more of a step forward for the 19-year-old Cuban. Moncada will make his debut for the Greenville Drive tonight after playing in extended spring training down in Ft. Myers. He would’ve been with the team earlier had he not strained his shoulder sliding into second base earlier this year. Like Castillo in Triple-A, he needed more time to get into game shape. Moncada has been playing second base, but SoxProspects.com has his five-tool potential playing out anywhere in the field, provided he gets consistent reps at the position he’s manning. If that doesn’t get you salivating, Moncada is a switch-hitter with plus contact and plus power. Did I mention he’s still a teenager?

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com